12
2012
Dark Cloud Rolling Into Philly?
An article by 
As the 2012 season continues, I am starting to think back to 2009 when many of us tossed everything off our desks and felt defeated after the Phillies acquired Roy Halladay.
Fast forward to them “stealing” Cliff Lee, and were pegged the best rotation ever by some.
Now, the Phillies are 29-33, sitting in last place in the NL East.
About a week ago, Phillies manager Charlie Manuel said
“I thought we lost that edge quite a while ago, if you want to know the truth. We don’t scare nobody. I’ll tell you something, we used to have a swagger. We used to be kind of cocky in a real good way. And teams used to definitely fear us. I definitely don’t see that fear no more. I don’t see that. I’m sorry. No, I don’t see where we scare anybody. Nobody backs down from us. Matter of fact, they come right at us. They take it right to us.”
For me, that is as true of a statement as you’ll hear a Manager say regarding his own team.
When Pat Gillick left, many praised the job Ruben Amaro Jr. had done. I personally have never been a fan of Amaro Jr’s work. I believe he rode the coattails of Gillick and was left with the best possible situation a new GM could ask for. A championship team with the core in their prime.
Yet now, in Amaro’s 4th year, things aren’t looking so great.
For starters, their prized prospect Dom Brown who was supposed to replace Jayson Werth has flopped big time.
Their overall outlook down on the farm is bleak at best.
When you look at their salaries, they are spending $104 million in 2013 alone on 6 players (Lee, Halladay, Howard, Utley, Papelbon, and Rollins).
Plus Pence who I believe has 1 more year of arbitration after this year, but that will cost the Phillies at minimum $11million. There is $115million right there, with everybody but Pence in their 30′s.
Currently, 3 of those players sit on the DL with long lasting injuries, and frankly, time is running out for them to produce at a high “all-star” level.
Oh, by the way, their best young starting pitcher, you know the guy who was actually on the World Series rotation as the ace…yeah he’s a free agent this year.
I find it incredibly hard to believe that Cole Hamels will be in Philadelphia next year and not with a team like the LA Dodgers.
The Phillies in my view are approaching a need for a huge discussion about their future. Their chances for winning a championship are decreasing by the day, and the core of their team is getting old and fragile.
Will the Phillies even entertain the idea of trying to trade Cliff Lee for the sake of trying to keep Cole Hamels? Lee is the only high priced talent they have that has a limited no trade clause. Everybody else is pretty secure.
It’s easy to scoff at the idea, and frankly, I’m not sure who would take his contract except the Yankees. However, if you were the Phillies would you rather have Cole Hamels or Cliff Lee through 2016?
I’d take Hamels in a heartbeat myself. I’m not taking anything away from Lee as a pitcher, but Hamels is 5 years younger and is just as good.
I personally find this fascinating, because the Phillies were set up for what could have been a late 90’s Yankee style dynasty and right now it’s looking like everything they did to achieve that status has failed.
They have a good chunk of money coming off the books after this season with Joe Blanton, Shane Victorino, Placido Polanco (option), Ty Wigginton (option).
While that will free up some money, it will also leave them without a CF, 3B and another SP.
It’s been a very quiet year in Philadelphia. Yet another example of why giving a lot of money to 5 or 6 guys can come back to haunt you should you have any success in developing young talent.
It’s easy to open up your checkbook and clear the farm. However, if it doesn’t work, you can set your franchise back a few years.
Their greed with regards to Cliff Lee or Roy Halladay could have cost them 5+ more years of quality pitching from their own homegrown ace in Cole Hamels.
What was once thought to be the makings of a dynasty, may now go down as one of the biggest flops in recent memory.
About the Author: Michael J. Branda
My time with MMO began in July of 2009 when I wrote a Fan Post defending Omar Minaya (before it was cool to do that.) I grew up a Mets fan with the mid 1980's teams. My favorite Met of all-time is (and was) Wally Backman. When it comes to sabermetrics versus old school thinking, I like to think I meet in the middle. I believe thinking of new ways to get answers is helpful, especially when the same way has not produced results. However, I think over-thinking certain situations can get you into trouble. I'm excited for the new regime, because I believe they have pieces in place to focus on several aspects of the Mets organization. I've waited this long for a World Series, waiting a few more years for another chance isn't going to kill me.
37 Comments + Add Comment
Recent Comments
- Heybatter: on Team Source On Wheeler: “He’s Ready”: Don't think they give out cortisone shots...
- DrDooby: on So Where Are All Those Moneyball Players?: Metsie, if Sandy steps down as GM...
- ill_egl: on Mets Have Opportunity To Soar To New Heights: I wouldnt mind bringing Rauch back in...
- Henry: on Team Source On Wheeler: “He’s Ready”: Not sure Wheeler is ready to give...
- DrDooby: on So Where Are All Those Moneyball Players?: Metsie, with all due respect, OPS or...
Need Tickets To The Mets Game?
Check Out These Great MLB Links!
Photographs From Gordon Donovan
5393 Fans Follow Us On Twitter!
1269 Fans Like Us On Facebook!
2341 Fans Read Our Feed!
1702 Fans Subscribe via Daily Email!
I’ve been saying for two-plus years now that Ruben Amaro is a joke of a GM. He hasn’t done one positive thing for that organization, they finish worse and worse each year and he should be ashamed of what he did to Gillick’s legacy in that city.
well, they did win 102 games last year. They just fizzled out in the playoffs. Hmm, losing to an upstart Cards team that went on to win the WS. Where have I seen that before?
102 games in a division in which the only other team to even finish above .500 couldn’t get to 90 wins. When Amaro took over, the Phils were defending WS champs. Then they lost the WS, then lost in the NLCS, then lost in the NLDS and this season has been terrible for them so far. As they get older, they fizzle out sooner and sooner and all Amaro does is sign more high-priced, older players because he has nothing to show for his drafts. Where have I seen that before?
Maybe in the next year or two he’ll realize he screwed over the franchise and start the rebuilding process for the next guy, but he’s got no history of high quality drafts.
I actually agree with you about Amaro. just wanted to point out that they did manage to win a boatload of games. Just the lack of (and age of) the offense caught up to them again in the playoffs.
Interesting (and i don’t have the numbers handy, but I looked at one point), but I believe that each year they were winning more regular season games, but going shorter in the playoffs (since 2008)
Amaro inherited a large start core, and a windfall of money to spend. And enough prospects (combined with a relative lack of holes to fill) to make big trades for 2 SPs.
but, being afraid to move on from any of the big name core guys is what will sink them if they sink. Combined with the common theme of guys tailing off and/or getting hurt as they get on in years!
I actually take back the “nothing good” comment. The Halladay trade and extension was good.
That said, it all started to go down hill after that. Why in the blue hell did he trade Lee away in the first place? Restocking the farm system is a silly excuse if Amaro was going sign all these outside FAs anyway and lose the picks. He should have traded Blanton, who was arbitration eligible, gotten one B prospect and kept Lee. Lee was on the books for $8 mil from his Cleveland contract and instead of working on an extension with him, they traded him for basically nothing, then signed Blanton for 3/$24, which is what? $8 mil a year. For THREE years! Completely mind boggling.
Then since Lee wasn’t a Philly and couldn’t work out an extension, Amaro had to pay Yankee money for a 31-year-old with an average of one DL stint per season and give up draft picks to do it. Now they’re potentially losing their All Star CF and one of the best young lefties in the league due in large part to that contract. By the way, know who the Rangers drafted with the two picks from Philly? A speedy, athletic CF and a lefty SP. I know the odds are virtually nil the Phils would have taken those same two players, but the irony is so delicious.
Forget about the hilarious extension to Howard and the stupid contract to Papelbon, that’s just icing on the cake.
Philly is starting to sound like the Mets post-2008. Lost edge, losing swagger, used to be cocky, teams not scared of them, teams coming right at them. Wasn’t that our main complaints about this team not all that long ago? Add to the fact of adding all these big time FA’s. Now the shoe’s on the other foot.
I see a lot of 2009 Mets in this team. Tons of bloated contracts and injuries. The core needs to be Vic, Pence and Hamels, but their bloat may stop that from occurring.
Wonder if they try and move Paps to give some some breathing room.
I see/read a lot about the phils (being as I live right outside philly) and I think they are pretty much over Vickey. I would be surprised to see him back unless it is way shorter and cheaper than he is hoping to get.
I don’t know about the comparisons to the Mets especially with Halladay and Lee still on that team but not taking anything away from their W.S. Title I will say they have arguably underachieved since then especially last season with all the “4 Horseman” talk after Lee signed.
damn, had a long response and the wireless burped. hate when that happens.
anyway, i don’t see the Phils selling. they built this team on a string of sellouts, and are going to go all-in hoping that Halladay, Utley and Howard are going to come back and lead them to 1 more miracle run.
as to hamels, they can afford him. Blanton will move along (or come back much cheaper). Kendrick likely replaces him, or they will get some other back end guy (not likely to get anyone from the minors). Palanco is gone.. And I think they finally break the mold and let one of the aging core of the WS team move on (I much prefer when they resign them past their prime like rollins!) So, plenty of money to keep Hamels (though I think he still likely does bolt).
CF, they have Brown there now in AAA and he seems to be picking it back up, so that can be an option. 3B, they will find someone. But if hamels comes back, those likely won’t be big money spots.
So, the offense for 2013 would be the old gang (utley/howard/rollins/ruiz) and Pence. 3B TBD, CF Brown, and LF also TBD.
so basically, due to guaranteed commitments (noose?) they pretty much will have the same old offensive core, all leaning heavily on the rotation.
This year, they aren’t trading lee (already went down the road!), certainly not without having hamels already inked (assuming they needed to free up money).
If they were really punting, Hamels is the guy to cut loose, but again, i think they want him and won’t do it. Pence? Also think they want him next year, but i suppose they could roll that dice.
Well when Utley and Howard return so will some of the fear unless they struggle after the layoff the way Ike has!
It’s a bit premature to complain how the team has been built considering the team they built is not actually on the field at the moment.
Cliff Lee has pitched well and still has yet to win a game!
Halladay has a losing record too before he got hurt…
Rollins isn’t hitting and no one else is because they are missing the two biggest bats in their lineup!
they weren’t striking all that much fear last year though. Some big spots (at least howard), and still carrying some streer cred, but certainly not what they used to be. And who knows what Howard will bring to the table after this much time?
but, that is what they are betting the season on.
What are you talking about?
Last year was the ONLY year the Phillies struck fear in anyone! And it was all about that rotation!
This point (June 12th) two years ago (2010 a year we had deemed for us horrible and houses needed cleaning) they were 2 games behind us in the standings!
It took yet another monumental choke from the Braves to get them the division that year!
2009 no one in the division gave them any competition. The NLEast pretty much rolled over on them and yet still were only the 5th best team in the league
2008 they didn’t scare anyone outside the NL East! And we gave them thier Ttitle when we choked it was clearly ours until that last week!
2007 Same story and when the Swagger was only present in Rollins where he claimed they were the team to beat that year and when we choked he turned out to be correct!
Thats when the swagger started…
They lost it when they thought last year was their year (as did everyone else) and got knocked out in the division series!
At that point everyone knew they could be beaten by anyone! Even a wildcard team!
You know why they lost thier swagger and teams don’t fear them as much?
Thie main swaggermieister is hitting .240 with a .291 OBP and their two best RBI guys are hurt along with thier top Ace!
people fear them less because of that and the fact that as fearsome as they seem during the regular season lesser teams manage to beat them!
charlie (and I) were talking about the hitting striking the fear into other teams. And the swagger on the field. Not the pitching, which (SP) is about all they have left.
On that note, Utley in his first rehab game tonight. 0 for 5 with 2 Ks, I believe.
Guess that means he’s making it back before Howard.
yes, he is now on the 20 day clock, so will be back by the 4th of July.
I disagree with them being a “flop”.
They did sacrafice their future with some of their moves, but those moves did create a lot of excitment around the team, and they have a big following now because of that. I think their sell out streak is now going on three years.
So, that’s one thing you have to consider.
And what were the chances of their future teams having as good of a chance to win the WS as the 09-11 teams? Very slim. They felt it was their best chance at winning a WS. So, they tired to mazimize their results by bringing in stars from the outside the orginazation, and they tried to win as much as possible. Not a terrible idea.
Also, just from reading your article you would think the Phillies downfall is now because of the new GM, and the players he brought in. That’s not really the case. It’s because of how quickly Howard’s and Utley’s careers have declined. There’s not much a GM can do about that.
Well, anyway, the Phillies best years are behind them, and that’s a great thing.
Well, he could not have signed Howard to that absurd extension. The writing was on the wall with Howard, and he did it, anyway.
And look at what not having him has done for them…
It’s so easy to say should not have signed a guy who eventually and unpredictably gets hurt…
Far harder to get someone who replaces him without missing a beat!
If there was someone to replace him where is he now?
there is a big difference between having to get a replacement starter (long term) and getting a back up until an injured guy comes back.
Yeah so who could they have gotten long term…
And pray tell what is the difference? if it was a mistake to sign Howard then it’s a mistake to keep him and you should STILL be looing for a long term replacement!
1. Agree on the no fan of Ruben Amaro jr.
2. Surprisingly former GM Ed Wade probably did more to help the Phillies after he left them then while he was there with some of the trades he has done as GM of the Astros sending Lidge, Oswalt & Pence to Philly over the years.
As far as I’m concerned Amaro can win the Best Winter Meeting & Trade deadline moves all he wants so long as he continues to fail at winning what he is there for. A World Series Title.
What was once thought to be the makings of a dynasty, may now go down as one of the biggest flops in recent memory.
The biggest flops?
Plenty of season still left and they did finish 1st place five straight seasons, went to two World Series twice and won a Championship. That is more than the Moneyball A’s could say who got a book and a movie deal over winning nothing.
The Phillies also racked up a few MVP and Cy Young Awards.
When I see Alderson do any of that for us, maybe then I’ll point fingers and gloat.
So far the only flop I’ve seen was Sandy Alderson’s last two offseasons. I’d rather have a GM who tried to win and failed, than a GM who has had eight straight losing seasons. What about that flop?
LOL yeah it is rather rediculous to say they have been a flop considering 5 straight playoff appearances and one WS win!
If Sandy did that they would be annointing him best GM to ever be in the game! LOL Actually they tried until it was pointed out he never won a WS playing moneyball with the A’s!
That said the phillies have been very fortunate to take advantage of collapses.
Two of their playoffs were a direct result of Met Chokes in 2007 and 2008 and in 2010 it was the Braves who choked in the 2nd half and let the Phillies get by them.
About the only two times the Phillies were dominant was 2009 when the NL East sucked and last year after they bought all that Cy Young…
Who had 2 hours in the “how long will it take Metsie to talk about Alderson?” pool?
Guess you missed it…Maniac brought it up first!
Yeah probably because you don’t have any snarky comments for him…
Question: Who had less than a second on Jessup in mentioning a team not called the mets?
So tell me Jessup are the Phillies done this year as you so illustriously argued last year when the Mets were only 7.5 game out of the wildcard?
Is that what your trying to say here with this little Philly Piece on a Mets Blog?
Funny how you had a Philly piece all half written and ready to go when I brought up your past opinion of being out of the playoffs and having a selloff!
no I missed it because when I read it, I thought it was you.
Congrats on finishing in 2nd place in the “Can we mention Sandy in a piece that has nothing to do with him” contest
By the way I have no idea when and where you brought up my “past” opinion. I started writing a piece this morning and I try to ignore most of anything you say about me.
If you want to believe you’re my muse, then the rest of the readers who compliment me often do indeed thank you.
I’m not suggesting they are done. Read the piece.
I’m suggesting their best young SP is walking and if they do not win a title, the halladay and lee moves will backfire and will cost them Cole Hamels in the process.
Yeah you ignore what I say yet here we are in a comment thread because you responded to something else you claim to ignore…
Is that anything like the time you said you think the opinions you never read and don’t subscribe to from BA are reliable?
Metsie, I have come to realize that I can not even be in a thread and you’ll mention my name. What I said was “I try to ignore most of anything you say about me.”
So if you said something about me, not to me, I ignore it.
As for me and Baseball America. I’m not sure how I can prove to you that I do not subscribe to BA. It’s kind of like when you or others tell me I am a “saber-goon” even though I never use sabermetrics outside of WHIP or OPS (which everybody uses), but since the voices in your head tell you I am sabr then it must be true.
I don’t subscribe to Baseball America. I read about a prospect when there is a need to know something. IE “Who is this Zack Wheeler kid we may get for Beltran?”
I don’t follow farm systems.
Did I say anything about you or mention you in this thread?
NOPE!
But you felt the need to take a shot at me now didn’t you?
Yep it would appear that the “Who Me?” kid has struck again!
As usual you started this crap and then when it gets played out you try and turn it around on the guy YOU originally attacked as if he is the one who starts it all!
Quite childish if you ask me Jesse!
I made a quite polite and respectful post regarding the topic of your article…
The back and forth between us was good for awhile until you went and started your snarky little crap wasn’t it?
So Tell me my little “Who Me?” kid…..
Who started this entire thing me or you?
Jessep — Great provocative article.
But “Their greed with regards to Cliff Lee or Roy Halladay ….” I wouldn’t call it greed. With their data at hand, it’s been just a couple of decisions that haven’t worked out, at least yet.
“When Pat Gillick left, many praised the job Ruben Amaro Jr. had done. I personally have never been a fan of Amaro Jr’s work. I believe he rode the coattails of Gillick and was left with the best possible situation a new GM could ask for. A championship team with the core in their prime.” I generally agree but let’s give Amaro Jr. a couple of more years. No doubt though that he’s not a GM Hall of Famer like Pat Gillick.
Someone needs to play Rollins’ speech that he gave after the WS about the Mets thinking they’ll win it all after getting Johan, flip it to being about the Phillies, and replace Johan with Halladay.
I think it is only fair to wait a bit more before we write off the Phillies yet. If Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay were pitching poorly it would be one thing but the Phillies lineup scares no one these days. Losing Chase Utley and Ryan Howard to injuries means a loss of 60 homers and 200 RBI
I do think that Jimmy Rollins has seen his best days go by other than when he plays our team but if Utely and Howard come back and hit well and Halladay returns to anywhere near his past success then the Phillies will be a different team then what we have seen so far!
I think the ‘Fake Tough’ tee shirts the Philly players had made up and wore yesterday says it all.
As you pointed out, Charlie has just about admitted to the media this team isn’t very good right now – and has lost it’s ‘swagger’. Somehow, I don’t think those tee shirts are going to bring it back.
LoL, I wasn’t aware of these “Fake Tough” T-Shirts the Phillies had made.
I think the Mets should print their own shirts that say “Yeah, baby! Believe it!’’ and give them away at Santana’s next Home start which looks right now to be next Monday vs Baltimore.