Also, if we accept your premise…so what? Teams must be doing it because they believe it is effective.

“I already gave two examples.”

No, you gave me the names of 2 guys who have been in the org at least 5 years each and neither of whom have ever displayed the kind of power you claim they have. Neither of who has never hit more than 13 HR in their careers. Murphy’s hit 20 total in his big league career.

And again, Marte is having the best season of his career.

“And that “data” doesn’t show if Murphy’s mindset is the same as it was in the past. ”

Oh, so the fact that I can’t read minds means your claim is valid? No. We can look at what he is doing when he comes to the plate. How often he swings at what pitch at what point in the count etc etc.

“He might be trying to be more patient now, but could just be unsuccessful in doing so.”

If he’s trying to be patient, he should try harder, because he’s swinging just as frequently as he always has. He still swings outside the zone and early in the count at above average rates.

“Something is up with him – You don’t go from hitting 12HR in the old citi field in your 1st year starting, to no HR with shorter fences.”

Sure you can. Especially if last year you came out as a legit hitter that now has teams scouting and preparing for. The problem is more likely that other teams have changed their approach to Murphy just like they changed their approach to Ike.

“Like who?”

I already gave two examples.

And that “data” doesn’t show if Murphy’s mindset is the same as it was in the past. He might be trying to be more patient now, but could just be unsuccessful in doing so. Something is up with him – You don’t go from hitting 12HR in the old citi field in your 1st year starting, to no HR with shorter fences.

The first thing you have to do is prove your assumption all teams use the same approach as the Mets.

“I disagree with Marte not being a power hitter. He can hit for power, but he just hasn’t done it. Maybe the reason for that is the approach?”

Or his power just never developed. He has yet to show any true power and he’s been in the org since 2007.

Was it the “new philosophy” that prevented his HR in 2009?

Also, he’s on pace to have the best season of his career by far in 2012.

“So, that’s a point you have to consider, there are a few guys who have the potential to hit for power, who haven’t done it”

Like who?

” and maybe that’s because of the approach.”

Or because they just never developed. Maybe it was the previous approach that prevented them from developing said power.

“An example of that in the majors would be Murphy – he hit 12HR with the old dimensions of Citi Field in his 1st year starting, and now he hasn’t hit one the whole year. This approach could be messing him up.”

Assuming Murphy changed his approach. The data pulled from his PAs suggests otherwise. His swing rates and such remain pretty much the same. The types of pitches he sees are what changed. Maybe working on his approach would be to his benefit.

Or he’s just in a bad funk and will work his way out. He did start the season pretty hot.

That brings me to another point. Maybe this approach is ONE of the reasons why HR’s are down across the league? Because other teams are using this approach as well.

I disagree with Marte not being a power hitter. He can hit for power, but he just hasn’t done it. Maybe the reason for that is the approach? So, that’s a point you have to consider, there are a few guys who have the potential to hit for power, who haven’t done it and maybe that’s because of the approach. An example of that in the majors would be Murphy – he hit 12HR with the old dimensions of Citi Field in his 1st year starting, and now he hasn’t hit one the whole year. This approach could be messing him up.

I don’t think it’s fair to credit the approach to Reyes 2011 season. I think it had more to do with him being healthy for the most part than anything else. Also, Reyes walk rate was LOWER in 2011 than it was in his other good years in 06,07 and 08.

And they all started the season in A Ball.

Possible, but I’m not taking your word for it.

“Also the deeper you get into a count favors the pitcher because it raises the chance of him being able to use his out pitch. ”

Also raises the odds of him making a mistake. And I don’t see what good an out pitch does in 2-0 and 3-0 counts.

“Also that plan is terrible because if you’re facing a lousy pitcher you’re gonna wait him out?”

No, but you don’t help him out, either.

“If you’re facing a guy who’s not doing well you go after him to knock him out of the box.”

Depends on why he isn’t doing well. If his fastball isn’t locating and he’s leaving fat ones over the plate, have at him. If his curveball isn’t landing in the zone and the ump is squeezing him, why not take until he gives you something good? He’s going to have to throw a batting practice fastball just to find the zone if you don’t chase the breaking stuff in that case.

“Awful way of approaching hitting in all levels”

That isn’t actually happening

“that’s why it’s best to just do like they used to do and work with a hitter when they need it.”

If they didn’t need it, they wouldn’t be in the minors.

“Yes the Mets needed a new hitting coach ”

Sending a resume?

“Also forgot to mention that your BEST pitchers are the ones you have to go after early and quickly.”

They are also guys that don’t have glaring weaknesses and can adjust to whatever approach a batter takes. They’ll get the overly aggressive hitters to chase and locate on the more passive hitters

“What this philosophy ”

That you’ve never proven is being used.

“is doing is trying to turn unintended consequences into a way of competing.”

Or it is trying to turn kids into productive hitters.

The team has been much more aggressive than they were earlier in the season. Duda has been much more aggressive over the last month. They’re not taking fastballs down the pipe like they were earlier in the year and if you’ve followed Duda’s minor league career he has always been extremely patient long before this new approach ever got here.

That new approach saw Reyes have his best season last year and now Wright is having his best season. He’s laying off the pitches he flailed at the last few years and cut down on his strikeouts. No philosophy preaches looking for walks it preaches taking a walk instead of helping a pitcher get you out. You want to see better power numbers then we need to draft better position players.

Binghamton doesn’t have any HR hitters, they onlly had 1 good hitter all year long and he’s at AAA now. marte doesn’t hit for power and Havens has been the Ike Davis of Bingo. Right now we have 4 potential power hitters, Taijeron, Flores, A. Rodriguez and Vaughn. That’s not a lot.

For months people debate, but the evidence remains completely “undocumented.”

What this philosophy is doing is trying to turn unintended consequences into a way of competing. It doesn’t work that way.

Also the deeper you get into a count favors the pitcher because it raises the chance of him being able to use his out pitch.

Also that plan is terrible because if you’re facing a lousy pitcher you’re gonna wait him out? That’s awful. If you’re facing a guy who’s not doing well you go after him to knock him out of the box.

Awful way of approaching hitting in all levels that’s why it’s best to just do like they used to do and work with a hitter when they need it. Yes the Mets needed a new hitting coach – just not a complete philosophical overhaul because now you’re trying to change hitters who don’t need to be changed.

The numbers certainly don’t prove some kind of vague, never actually stated philosophy. If anything, the lower levels show this to be not the case and the higher levels can be explained by there just not being any power hitting prospects.

Seriously, you tell me, who are the power hitting prospects in AA and AAA? Valdespin has spent a lot of time on the big club, Den Dekker isn’t really a power hitter and Flores just got promoted to Bingo and is still just 20.

Every plan ever has that clause.

“Hitters could start taking hit able pitches for strikes, which would then cause less power, less average, ect. I see it happening to the major league team – Especially against strike throwers.”

Which is why you have coaches and instructors. To refine the prospects and teach them difference between “work the count” and “look for a walk”. And there is nothing wrong with having a baseline you expect everyone to meet. We expect these guys to be able to produce in Citi Field, right?

“Also, I don’t like the idea of everybody following the same approach. all hitters are different. Maybe this philosophy works for some guys, but some guys are successful being aggressive, and taking away some of their aggressiveness will hurt them more than help.”

Again, this is why there are coaches and instructors. They are there to figure out what is the best way to approach each player.

Also, an unintended consequence of your idea is having too many guys all doing there all thing with no coherence through the farm. Like we’ve had already.

Also, I don’t like the idea of everybody following the same approach. all hitters are different. Maybe this philosophy works for some guys, but some guys are successful being aggressive, and taking away some of their aggressiveness will hurt them more than help.

And like I said, your numbers didn’t prove anything. Buffalo is filled with journeyman players, so the amount of HR they hit mean nothing. Sure St Lucie is top in the league in HR, but that’s evened out by Bingo being at the bottom.

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2012/6/18/3095092/what-happened-to-ike-davis

When we look at the upper levels, we only see journey men supplying the power. That is not because the power hitting prospects are looking for walks, it is because there are no power hitting prospects. ‘Spin has spent a lot of time on the big club (he’s always had a strike out problem anyway) and Den Dekker just got promoted to there (he’s more of a gap power with 15 or so HR potential anyway).

And then we look at the low levels and see our guys hitting a relatively large amount of HR in pitcher friendly parks and pitcher friendly leagues.

Although, we don’t have the same data about each PA for the prospects that we do for Davis, there are plenty of more logical conclusions that can be drawn that make more sense than “they are told to look for walks”.

I will concede that it is possible that perhaps Nimmo and other guys are adjusting to emphasis on plate discipline and incorrectly interpreting it as “look for walks”. But that is what a farm system is about.

If you want to go into and figure out what the numbers mean, great. But I was just pointing out how silly the initial idea proposed by Bayonne was.

Ike finished the season with a .264 average, 19HR and 71RBI in 147 games, and played very good defense at 1st – That’s a solid rookie season any way you slice it. In fact he was tied for 1st in rookie is HR, 3rd in RBI, and 2nd in BB. And that was in a very strong rookie class too.

Oh and I’m not defending Bayonne, I’m defending Ike Davis.

The only real point you had was St Lucie being the top team in HR, but that’s evened out by Bingo being out the bottom.

You also have to put it in context as well. Maybe with the hitters the Mets have, they should be hitting more HR across the minors? If you don’t put the numbers in context, you don’t prove anything.

Overall Ike played best in March/April and again in September/October. There may be reasons why these were his two best periods. Ike can mash fastballs so his April success likely was when the opposing pitchers did not yet have a ‘book’ on him. When they fed him soft stuff and breaking pitches he started having problems. Later in the year, Ike was facing September call ups. Again he had success. Do you notice a similarity?