22
2012
What If Hype For Ike Got The Best Of Us?
Yesterday, Joe D posted some thoughts regarding sending Ike Davis down to the minor leagues. During the discussion I threw a thought out there.
“What if Duda is the 1B of the future, and not Ike?”
For the most part it got ignored, but after last night’s poor at bat as a pinch hitter, I still have to wonder. What if?
What if all of us who desperately wanted another young star to call our own, overshot the projections on Davis?
When Fielder and Pujols left the NL, how many times did you read about Ike Davis being the 2nd best 1B in the NL now? People here and all over were writing in permanent marker that he’d hit 30+ (sometimes even 40+) HR. Did the need for a new star get the best of us all?
In Davis’ rookie campaign he played in 147 games, hit 19 HR, drove in 71 RBI, and hit .264 with a .351 OBP and a .791 OPS. That’s a decent season. It’s a very similar year to Wally Joyner in 1988. Joyner at age 26 was coming off of 2 straight 100+ RBI years.
He followed that up by playing in 158 games, hitting 13 HR, driving in 85, and hitting .295 with a .356 OBP and a .775 OPS.
Joyner had a nice career, but he never reached the potential that everybody expected following his 86 and 87 campaigns.
Many people used Davis’ 2011 short season to justify the high expectations. Here’s the problem with that viewpoint though.
Anybody can have a hot April. In April AB he hit .337 with 5 HR, driving in 20 with an OPS of 1.014.
In May leading up to his injury he was 7 for 34 (.206) with 2 HR and 5 RBI with a .671 OPS.
In 2010, Davis’ final numbers were primarily inflated than to a red hot April, and a hot September in meaningless games. In April and September, Davis hit .338. From May-August, he hit .240.
If we’re going to call him a streaky hitter, then the streak is that he’ll have a good month or so, and then primarily be a .250 type hitter.
So what if the hype got the best of all of us? What if he’s really that .240 hitter and he just fooled us for 3 months? It’s highly possible is it not?
We’ve seen in a span of 621 plate appearances, 557 AB, Ike has a .219 batting average. (May-August 2010+May 2011+2012) then we’ve seen in a span of 276 plate appearances (April and September 2010, April 2011), 232 AB, Ike has a .331 batting average.
Yet we come up with several excuses for 2012 Ike, because we’re choosing to ignore the information that is in front of us.
In over 600 times at the plate in his career, he’s looked like the hitter we see today. Rust wasn’t an issue, valley fever wasn’t an issue then, so why is it now?
Why are we looking at HALF of the story and projecting him to be more like those numbers than the guy we have twice as much data on?
How many hitters come up and show flashes of brilliance in one or two months of a season, and then just blend in for the remainder of the season?
When you consider he’s played a total of 10 months in the major leagues, and only 3 of them were even close to the projections for his career, that has to worry you, no?
Right now, it’s undeniable that he looks lost up there. There is clearly a book out on him, and the Mets don’t have time to sit and wait for him to adjust. He clearly needs a better education on how to adjust to what the league is now throwing at him.
Davis has not been a big leaguer long enough to deserve any more time hurting the team offensively. He’s got to go to the minors, to hopefully fix whatever his issues are.
This isn’t a slump anymore. This is a red flag. Davis is a great fielder, and there isn’t a Mets fan alive who wants to see this end badly.
At some point though, we all have to wonder what if he’s not the player we all thought he was?
About the Author: Michael J. Branda
My time with MMO began in July of 2009 when I wrote a Fan Post defending Omar Minaya (before it was cool to do that.) I grew up a Mets fan with the mid 1980's teams. My favorite Met of all-time is (and was) Wally Backman. When it comes to sabermetrics versus old school thinking, I like to think I meet in the middle. I believe thinking of new ways to get answers is helpful, especially when the same way has not produced results. However, I think over-thinking certain situations can get you into trouble. I'm excited for the new regime, because I believe they have pieces in place to focus on several aspects of the Mets organization. I've waited this long for a World Series, waiting a few more years for another chance isn't going to kill me.
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NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 23 | 18 | .561 | - |
| Nationals | 23 | 19 | .548 | 0.5 |
| Phillies | 20 | 22 | .476 | 3.5 |
| Mets | 16 | 23 | .410 | 6.0 |
| Marlins | 11 | 31 | .262 | 12.5 |
Last updated: 05/18/2013
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Duda the future of 1B? That’s a scary future then. I still say that Ike is suffering from the Valley Fever and the Mets medical staff as usual botched this.
I do agree that if it is not Valley Fever than a minor league assignment is best for Ike. He’s too good of a player to be playing like this. Send him down, Wally Backman will do what Terry Collins cannot and that is fix what is wrong with Ike.
How do you know that Wally Backman can teach Ike how to fix his swing? First, it’s Dave Hudgens’ responsibility, not Terry Collins.
If Ike was sent to AAA he’d likely work more with Greer than Backman. But mostly the Mets would probably send instructors to Buffalo, and not just hand him to Wally Backman. Backman has a full roster of players to coach.
I’m not sure why this Valley Fever thing still comes up. Valley Fever gives you flu like symptoms…the Mets have sat players for flu like symptoms this year so I’m sure they know how to be on the look out. If Ike Davis was walking around for 2 months like he had the flu, I’m pretty sure the Mets would notice.
I think people are just coming up with every excuse in the book right now and avoiding the big picture.
Isn’t Mookie to roving hitting instructor now?
I thought he was. I also see where’s he’s one of the representatives at this year’s draft for the Mets.
I read where Teufel looked at tape of Wright in the field and saw something that when tweaked, seems to have helped him in the field this year. Wish someone would come up with a similar answer for Ike.
You’re right on the Valley Fever stuff…Valley Fever isn’t serious…if it is left uncaught, it can lead to infections, but all it does is make you a little tired. It’s bad enough when bloggers make the mistake, but I still see “creditable” beat writers for the daily rags make this mistake.
Ike’s mechanics are out of sync…his timing is off…he’s pressing…that’s why he’s not playing well.
Ike has a long, big loopy swing with a big hitch. You could see during the spring that he was trying to eliminate the hitch by starting his hands down near his belt, but it didn’t work and he went back to starting his hands high, then dropping them and bring them back up.
Players with big swings like that can have problems with stepping in the bucket and their hand will be way out in front, they won’t be swing with their hips, they’ll miss pitches on the outside corner and have problems with breaking pitches.
He needs to keep his hands from moving so much when he loads up…I think he also needs to learn how to shorten up his swing a little and I think he should move up in the box a few inches and move closer to the plate a little.
When you’re going bad like Ike is, you think that you’re not being quick enough, but the fact is, you’re being too quick…so instead of trying to slow down, you’re speeding up.
That’s why you see guys like Ike get worse before they get better.
Right USMF… I think people automatically turn to Valley Fever because there was never an end to the story. Nobody cares to know what it is, they just use it as an excuse for Ike. The only way the Valley Fever would have such an impact on Ike today is if it went undiagnosed.
But the Mets knew it was a possibility, so Ike would have to be walking around flu like, losing weight for 2 months now? Come on…that just doesn’t add up.
Its something we all do as fans. We hear something about a player or team or whatever and we try and make it like we get how it applies to the situation. We convince ourselves we have a bead on what is happening behind closed doors.
sounds like a golf swing. You can get away with all kinds of funky movements, and sometimes get more power out of them, but only if you are perfectly dialed in to get everything back where it needs to be at impact. But, the downside is, more parts mean more to go wrong, and much easier to lose your timing.
That is why most guys that are consistent have relatively simple swings. Quicker, more repeatable, etc.
Look at Manny Ramirez. Hell of a hitter, but didn’t he have a nice, compact quick stroke? Nothing fancy or funky, just a short quick path through the hitting zone? And considering he was always one of those “roll out of bed and hit” types, kind of makes sense.
I’m sure Ike can fix himself different ways if he wants to. keep the same swing and hope he gets it all timed right? Go back to what he was doing to start last year with a quieter swing?
whatever it is, he can’t have forever to figure it out in the majors.
Look at Albert Pujols, he’s one of the greatest hitters in MLB history and he has almost no movement in his swing. He has almost no leg kick and almost no take back in his swing. Oh course, in order to be able to be successful with that type of approach, you need to be very quick and extremely strong…especially in the arms in the core.
But don’t let Manny’s aloof personality fool you…he was one of the hardest workers (at hitting at least) in the game. As simple as these guys make it seem…these guys work extremely hard to do what the do…
I can tell you, as someone who still plays and has a long swing and a hitch (sometimes) in his swing…knowing that you have the problems is only a small step in fixing it and even it you do fix it, it’s very easy to fall back into the bad habits.
that’s what I meant. And was certainly not implying that manny didn’t know what he was doing or didn’t work hard at his hitting, just that a “simple” swing was easier to get in game-shape, and less likely to go all haywire on you!
I disagree. Ike is a very talented player. This isn’t like a guy who came completely came out of nowhere, and had a good month or two. He was a 1st Rd draft pick, and highly regarded prospect when he 1st came up. He’s an outstanding defender at 1st base, he has tremendous power, and has a very good eye at the plate(He hasn’t shown it this year, but he did his 1st two years here, and throughout his minor league career).
The talent is obviously there, so why is he struggling? I think missing almost an entire season is the biggest reason why. And then suffering from valley fever in ST I think has also hurt him.
This isn’t the first time we’ve seen a Mets player miss almost an entire year, miss time in ST the next, and struggle to start the season. Look at Jose Reyes’ 2010 season. After missing almost the whole season in 09, and the thyroid conditon in ST, on May 22nd Reyes was hitting .216! He finished the year hitting .280, and the next year went on to win the batting title.
I think Ike will bounce back the same way. He’s been showing signs of improvement too(even though the numbers aren’t showing it). He has been making much better contact the last few weeks.
“Ike is a very talented player. This isn’t like a guy who came completely came out of nowhere, and had a good month or two. He was a 1st Rd draft pick, and highly regarded prospect when he 1st came up. He’s an outstanding defender at 1st base, he has tremendous power, and has a very good eye at the plate(He hasn’t shown it this year, but he did his 1st two years here, and throughout his minor league career).”
This
Vinny,
Thanks for the post.
Here’s what I disagree with. We say he’s a talented play, but why? Because we want him to be or because 2012 is a fluke?
Right now 2012 is a fluke, but you can make a serious argument that April, September 2010 and April 2011 were more of a fluke.
Here’s my worry
We’ve seen in a span of 621 plate appearances, 557 AB… Ike has a .219 batting average.
then
We’ve seen in a span of 276 plate appearances, 232 AB… Ike has a .331 batting average
Yet for some reason we all (me included) look at the SMALLER sample size and say “that’s the player he is” and we IGNORE the over 600 times he’s been at the plate and looked MORE like the hitter we are seeing.
We come up with excuses, valley fever, rust etc. But we are ignoring what is right in front of us. What is more likely to be a fluke, 276 PA’s or 621 PA’s?
I disagree. Ike is a very talented player. This isn’t like a guy who came completely came out of nowhere, and had a good month or two. He was a 1st Rd draft pick, and highly regarded prospect when he 1st came up. He’s an outstanding defender at 1st base, he has tremendous power, and has a very good eye at the plate(He hasn’t shown it this year, but he did his 1st two years here, and throughout his minor league career).
The talent is obviously there, so why is he struggling? I think missing almost an entire season is the biggest reason why. And then suffering from valley fever in ST I think has also hurt him.
This isn’t the first time we’ve seen a Mets player miss almost an entire year, miss time in ST the next, and struggle to start the season. Look at Jose Reyes’ 2010 season. After missing almost the whole season in 09, and the thyroid conditon in ST, on May 22nd Reyes was hitting .216! He finished the year hitting .280, and the next year went on to win the batting title.
I think Ike will bounce back the same way. He’s been showing signs of improvement too(even though the numbers aren’t showing it). He has been making much better contact the last few weeks.
“We say he’s a talented play, but why?”
I already gave my reasons why I think he is a talented player.
“He was a 1st Rd draft pick, and highly regarded prospect when he 1st came up. He’s an outstanding defender at 1st base, he has tremendous power, and has a very good eye at the plate(He hasn’t shown it this year, but he did his 1st two years here, and throughout his minor league career).”
But Vinny what I am wondering is why WE (me included) ignore everything we see and say things like
“he has tremendous power, and has a very good eye at the plate(He hasn’t shown it this year, but he did his 1st two years here, and throughout his minor league career).”
In 182 minor league games he hit 22 HR. In the minor leagues he had a .371 OBP. Which is good, but you have to also consider some sort of drop off in the big leagues no?
In 182 games he hit 22 HR, in 223 big league games he’s hit 31 in total. So why do we say he has tremendous power?
It’s POSSIBLE his April, Sept in 2010 and April 2011 were more of a fluke than his May-August 2010, May 2011 and 2012 are.
I’m not saying he’s a .160 hitter.
I’m saying its more possible he’s a .250 20 HR hitter than a .300 30+ HR hitter like MOST of us assumed he’d be.
“So why do we say he has tremendous power?”
Because he’s a big strong guy(He’s 6′ 4″, 230 lb.), and has hit some BOMBS during his short time up here. He has so much power that even Chipper Jones said that he’s never seen a hitter pound for pound have more power than Ike.
Vinny, my point is that we haven’t seen it. We believe it. We’ve seen glimpses but we haven’t seen enough of Ike to think he’s a .300 30+ HR hitter.
You can hope or predict it, but there is more evidence to suggest he’s a .250 20 HR hitter and that is not what the Mets were thinking 2 years ago.
You can have all the power in the world but if your swing is flawed it doesn’t matter. Marcus Thames was what 6’2, 220 ish? When he got a hold of one in Detroit he was crushing them. But that didn’t mean he was a good hitter.
The evidence is there to suggest Ike could be not as good as we all expected or hoped. And my question is, did we ignore the warning signs and overhype him and if my fear is correct… then what?
But in addition to his tremendous power he has a very good eye at the plate, and plays outstanding defense – He’s a completely different player than Thames.
Ike was a 1st rd pick and a highly regarded prospect for a reason: He’s a very talented player, and has a lot of potential. And we have seen flashes of his talent in his rookie year and last year. Yes, he’s struggling now, but I think that’s because of all the time he missed last year, and the time he missed in ST with valley fever(which could still be affecting him, who knows?)
Vinny: You’re telling me what I HOPE is true.
My question and reason for this post is
There is more evidence to suggest he’s a .250 20 HR hitter than a .300 30+ hitter. And I think we all assume its a lock that he’s a .300 30+ guy, but what if he isn’t?
Is it possible he isn’t? I think it’s highly possible and that’s a shame…
Sorry Vin had your post in my clipboard and pasted it by accident at the end of mine!
So this was my response
Vinny,
Thanks for the post.
Here’s what I disagree with. We say he’s a talented play, but why? Because we want him to be or because 2012 is a fluke?
Right now 2012 is a fluke, but you can make a serious argument that April, September 2010 and April 2011 were more of a fluke.
Here’s my worry
We’ve seen in a span of 621 plate appearances, 557 AB… Ike has a .219 batting average.
then
We’ve seen in a span of 276 plate appearances, 232 AB… Ike has a .331 batting average
Yet for some reason we all (me included) look at the SMALLER sample size and say “that’s the player he is” and we IGNORE the over 600 times he’s been at the plate and looked MORE like the hitter we are seeing.
We come up with excuses, valley fever, rust etc. But we are ignoring what is right in front of us. What is more likely to be a fluke, 276 PA’s or 621 PA’s?
Could it be that amjor league pitchers are exploiting the BIG GIANT HOLE in Ike Davis’s swing? NAhhh, Couldn’t be that…. Are you all stupid or what? Ike Davis NEEDS to fix his swing! Goodness Ralph Kiner told us this the first time he commented on Davis.
Ike Davis will not be playing Major League Baseball long term unless he fixes the BIG GIANT HOLE in his swing. It’s that simple.
I pointed the problems Ike has in his swing TWO YEARS ago. In fact he still has a few different mechanical problems with his swing.
Ike will work his way out of his current problems. He did once in the past but has since regressed. Maybe his current dilemma will help him become more mentally flexible and listen to the good advice he has often spurned. If Ike doesn’t, stick a fork in him since he will be cooked.
The situation is obvious (he is terrible right now), but the reason as noted is not.
But, the team has to come first, and he has had ptleny of time to try and work this out in the majors. So, he needs to go down. Is it rust? mechanical? mental? Who knows, but better he goes to AAA to try and work it out instead of dragging down the mets!
the future? Let’s see what happens in his AAA stint first!
stick — “The situation is obvious (he is terrible right now), but the reason as noted is not”
Some of us think Ike’s swing problems are not worthy of Mensa. They are not so hard that slo-mo cameras would be fooled. But let’s let the batting coaches earn their keep. Whether Ike will listen is a separate issue.
There’s so many things we don’t know about Ike yet.
As we know, Heward and Soto had great rookie seasons and haven’t been the same since. Is this the same with Ike? I hope that is not the case (or nothing more than the sophomore jinx since 2011 can’t really count).
Or, is Ike a slow starter? He hasn’t had the chance yet to see if this is one of his characteristics.
And, as many of us have wondered, how serious is that Valley Fever? According to the Mayo Clinic:
“If you do develop symptoms, especially severe ones, the course of the disease is highly variable. It can take from six months to a year to fully recover, and fatigue and joint aches can last even longer.”
if this is the case with Ike, it just might be that 2012 will be struggle, physically and not a true reflection of his potential one way or the other. Sending him down to the minors won’t cure that.
But Joey, about this Valley Fever stuff…
that was what mid March or so right?
So I went to the Mayo Clinic since you referenced it. Your point about it lingering is valid but here is why I disagree
“It can cause fever, chest pain and coughing, among other signs and symptoms.”
So if the main symptoms are the same symptoms that basically lead to Wright being sat down and others for flu like symptoms… then we’re either suggesting the Mets are ignoring a feverish coughing Ike Davis… or Valley Fever isn’t an issue.
I am looking at the Mayo Clinic’s website now and nowhere on it does it say that Valley Fever makes you swing at bad pitches.
If Valley Fever was an issue, the Mets were aware of it during Spring Training so any symptoms since would have been handled. If Ike is walking around with a fever, the trainers would know about it. If he’s not walking around with a fever, then Valley Fever isn’t why he’s hitting below .200.
Hi Jessep,
Somebody just called up Mike Francesa addressing that same exact issue (no guys, it wasn’t me)..
Mike’s response was a lot like your’s – that the Mets have given him test after test and haven’t come up with anything. There is the possibility, he said, that something is still there and that the doctors haven’t discovered it yet. He does, however, believe that the Valley Fever does play a part into this – how much, that’s anybody’s guess.
Ike’s swinging at bad pitches is a sign of a bad slump – many do that. But it’s the balls that he does hit having little pop in them that makes me wonder if the Valley Fever is still effecting him in some ways. Even if Ike is over the infection, could there be a time period for the body to completely recuperate from such an infection? Might not be noticeable with a couch potato like myself, but with an athlete like Ike Davis, a minute loss of strength would be all the difference in the world. Again, these are just guesses.
As far as not finding out the reason for swinging at bad pitches, you went to the wrong clinic – it’s not Charley Mayo, it’s Charley Lau! LOL
On another note, I guess Mike Francesa brought this up as a rub to angry Met fans when he continued talking about the Mets needing more hitting and mentioned the great year Beltran is having in St. Louis and hot it would be if Carlos was still in the Met lineup. The stat I found interesting was five stolen bases in six attempts – shows that the speed is still there somewhat and the knees are not a problem.
Just remember, Francesa raised the question, not me!
If Jason Bays atrocius contract wasn’t still on the books then maybe Beltran would’ve been retained.
I have no idea what the answers are for Ike Davis.
I’ve heard or read every opinion on Ike from Ralph to Keith to Terry to numerous baseball analysts to fans. What I’ve heard very little of, if anything at all, is Ike’s take on all this. Did I just miss those?
Ralph implied last year and Keith implied so far this year, that Ike is ‘stubborn’. Is that really it? Does he refuse to alter his mechanics thinking he knows best? Or maybe he has or is doing that but since the results aren’t there, everyone just assumes he’s being stubborn.
I haven’t given up yet on him but it’s coming to the point where it can’t be ignored for much longer. As much as I really don’t want to send him down, it might be their only choice come June.
Ike’s first season with brooklyn was pretty horrible and then he turned it on. He either figured something out or just got comfortable. The thing is having a big gap in his playing time last year has had an effect on him and he should have stayed in Florida for extended spring. Being that is water under the bridge he needs to go down and get comfortable again. He is still very young and has had flashes offensivley. These flashes should be fostered and then maybe he will become what we want him to be.
Ike has always been overrated. Coming off an ankle injury and then being diagnosed with Valley Fever might be slowing his return to form or maybe he never was that amazing to begin with. He could never be good again and the team should act sooner rather than later in looking for a replacement at 1B