MMO Fan Shot: Ojeda Comes Down Hard On Mets Approach At Plate

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• Alex68 May 4, 2012 at 9:32 pm

  The CORE!!!!!!!! lol, well, as me and you have been saying Bayonne, this team have a high OBP and all those saberstats that this front office loves, but the reality is that the agressiveness of some players have gone away, I mean, look at David Wright, he’s hitting almost 400, you’d think that with people getting on base in front of him that he’d have like 30 RBI by now, yet, he as well is taking pitches.. only 13 RBI for a guy that hit almost 400 for the whole month, I am glad ojeda is commenting on this.. Mets have been outscored by 30 runs so far this season and can’t run the bases, but hey, OBP is high.. to this front office, that’s all it matters
• Greg Pomes May 4, 2012 at 9:33 pm

  I couldn’t agree more. I don’t know how many times already this season that we’ve seen many hittable pitches go by with less than 2 strikes from the Mets. You can’t always hope to get a favorable call.
• Little Nicky May 4, 2012 at 11:01 pm

  The players know best, Ojeda for manager!
• sarge69 May 4, 2012 at 11:06 pm

  This is the Moneyball approach and each player knows what their approach should be but if you are constantly falling behind and having to swing at the “pitcher” pitch then you will not get the best pitch to drive.’

  This philosophy sucks and Hudgins or whatever his name is needs to change this cause you are causing young players, Duda, Ike, Cap Kirk, Tejada, to take pitches that they normally could get a good swing at.
• Des May 4, 2012 at 11:07 pm

  Ojeda: “The reality is … if you’re taking that called 3rd strike, … It affects your situational hitting and you’re not getting good pitches to hit.”

  Des: Bobby’s logic escapes me. Taking that called 3rd strike is an execution issue, not a philosophy issue. Of course it affects pitches that the batter never sees when he’s back on the bench or when the Mets half of the inning is over. Bobby needs to do some more ‘splaning.
• Des May 4, 2012 at 11:24 pm

  Ojeda: “Extra base hits are way down and why is that? Again, you’re not seeing the good pitch to hit. Most of your best pitches to hit are going to occur during the first 3 pitches.”

  Des: I disagree with Bobby. The best pitches to hit are 3-0, 3-1, 2-0. Yes there are more ‘first three pitches,’ but on average, the best pitches to hit are the ones cited above.
  • Hodges14 May 4, 2012 at 11:36 pm

    Des, It sounds more like you agree with Ojeda.

    2-0, 3-0 counts fall fall under first three pitches like Ojeda said, right? And looking for a first pitch fastball down the middle is preached by many a hitting coach.
    • Des May 4, 2012 at 11:48 pm

      Hodges14 — Good point you’ve made but the counts I’ve cited are just a subset of the counts possible on the first three pitches, and the 3-1 count falls outside the window. Thanks for the view.
• Who May 4, 2012 at 11:37 pm

  The Mets were 6th in the National League in runs scored last season with the same approach. But let’s just forget all of that in exchange for a month’s worth of data. Really smart.
  • Des May 4, 2012 at 11:57 pm

    Who — I think Bobby Ojeda has a lot of good analysis to offer. It may or may not matter, but he was a helluva better pitcher than batter (15 year career 1.332 WHIP vs .127 AV). So I take his comments tonight not as seriously.
• Fonzie13 May 4, 2012 at 11:51 pm

  I don’t think the philosophy is to take pitches right down the pipe for strikes. The philosophy is to lay off bad pitches and be hackin on the good ones. The philosophy wasn’t a problem last year and it’s not a problem for the Yanks and Redsox. It comes down to execution and this team with the exception of a few are just not executing. They’re swinging at bad pitches and taking fastballs right down the middle and when they do swing they’re mosty not doing anything with those pitches. Rauch hangs a few sliders and they get smoked. Our guys were fouingl the hangers back into the seats. They do take too many pitches to hit but hat come down to the hitter not the philosophy. Other than Wright there’s not a proven major leagu hitter in our lineup. I can’t even give Bay credit for being a proven ML hitter anymore. We’re to top heavy on the left side. Lefties are killing us. Ike, Murphy and Duda aren’t doing much of anything and Ike doesn’t even look like he belongs at this level. Hopefully this changes soon. It’s nice to have a homegrown team but not if it sucks.
• Hodges14 May 4, 2012 at 11:52 pm

  Mets led the league in on-base last season and were second in walks. A lot of good that did them.

  Here are the pitches Ojeda refers to. These are the only combination of the first three pitchers:

  0-0 Neutral
  0-1 Pitchers count
  1-0 Hitters count
  1-1 Neutral
  2-0 Hitters count
  0-2 Pitchers count
  2-1 Hitters count
  1-2 Pitchers count
  3-0 Hitters count

  There is only two true pitcher’s counts.

  1-2 is debatable especially with a good hitter at the plate because he will protect the plate and swing at anything close. Which is what Ojeda wants the Mets hitters to do.

  Of the nine possible combinations, two are neutral, three are pitchers counts and four are hitters counts.

  After the third pitch, the pitcher gains the advantage and you’re seeing that with the Mets.

  Ojeda is right.
  • Fonzie13 May 5, 2012 at 12:03 am

    Cardinals led in On base
    • Hodges14 May 5, 2012 at 12:10 am

      It changes nothing but I had it reversed, it was first in walks, second in OBP. The song remains the same.
      • Fonzie13 May 5, 2012 at 7:05 am

        Hodges they were 6th in the NL in runs scored last year with very little power and a makeshift lineup for most of the year. If Wright, Murphy, Reyes and Ike don’t get hurt who knows how much better their offense would be. They scored the most runs in the NL East. Yankees and Redsox have made a living hell for AL pitchers for years with this exact same approach. This is about execution and nothing else. This is mostly a team made up of unproven major leaguers except for Wright. Lulls like this are normal for a young team. Hopefully they learn from it. They do not preach go up to the plate and try and walk. They’re not executing the philosophy. They’re supposed to swing at the strikes and not chase the bad pitches. Only problem is they’re doing it backwards.
  • Des May 5, 2012 at 12:12 am

    The analysis to conclude Ojeda is right when he says: ‘Most of your best pitches to hit are going to occur during the first 3 pitches,’ is requires more analysis. It really requires population statistics of a batter’s success with each of the counts. It is empirical, not strictly logical. Also the point I made before is that even if Ojeda is right, there are better counts within the three pitch subset.
    • Metsie May 5, 2012 at 9:43 am

      I think yor missing the point of what he was trying to say Des…
      He isn’t talking statistically he is talking from a pitcher’s perspective.

      A Pitcher is more likely to throw a fat strike early or in the first three pitches in order to avoid getting into those hitter counts!

      In order for a Pitcher to have the flexability to toy with you, he first has to make sure he gets at least one strike in those first 3 Pitches. And he would prefer to get two! If he doesn’t it is 3-0 or 2-1 and he is in deep trouble!
      Therefore the fattest strikes are INTENTIONALLY thrown in the first three pitches and if he fails in that the Pitcher may then be forced to throw a strike but he is not going to just lay it down the pipe. People think the Hitter’s Count leads to fat strikes but thats not really true it usually only leads to more fastballs.

      Ojeda speaking from a pitcher’s perspective is saying that a Pitcher is more likely to throw a clear strike (fat) in those first three pitches in order to avoid having to face a Hitter’s count throughout the AB.

      Thats why many throw fat fastballs on the first pitch and why many batters who know this, go up there looking Fastball and swing on the first pitch do quite well until the Pitcher decides to try and take advantage of that aggressiveness!

      And in that case if he didn’t throw a strike on the first pitch it is almost as sure as it was 3-0 that he will attempt to throw one on the Second pitch!
      Cause the pitchers options diminish if he starts off 2-0!

      The reality of what Ojeda said is it doesn’t matter who the pitcher is or what his best pitch is he is way more willing to throw a fatter strike in the first three pitches to get ahead and even more willing than he is at 2-0 and 3-0! Becuase he doesn’t want to GET to 2-0 and 3-0!
      • Des May 5, 2012 at 7:37 pm

        Metsie, how do you know what Hodges14 meant? Maybe you’ve nailed it. If so, he’s quite capable of explaining it. Anyway maybe you didn’t nail it.

        Statistics tell what the full population of all pitches ever thrown for the period under study has been. They include the results of all intentions, achievements, mistakes and give us a full history. The one thing they don’t give is the differences between pitchers. They could but it would be even more tedious than this discussion has become.

        Anyway have a good night. It was great to win today.
        • Metsie May 5, 2012 at 9:07 pm

          Sorry i was referring to what Ojeda said not Hodges…
          Ojeda was talking about the fattest pitch (other than mistakes) are usually on the first three pitches of an AB.
          Thats because (and Hodges did touch on it) that if you don’t throw a strike (or two) in those first three pitches the pitche ris stuck in a hitter’s count and conceivably in trouble!
  • zz May 5, 2012 at 11:37 am

    Actually it did do them quite a bit of good last yr. They were 6th in runs score in the NL despite not having much of any HR power…and actually they were 2nd in OBP. The Cardinals were first in OBP and also first in runs scored by a significant margin.

    Similarly in the AL the Sox-Yanks were 1-2 in OBP and also 1-2 in runs scored. Getting on base is a good thing.
    • Metsie May 5, 2012 at 11:52 am

      It did reyes good and did some for Duda as well.
      The rest of the team really didn’t do anything different than the norm.
      Wright struck out plenty last year, Most of the runs scored were driven in by Beltran who had no change in his batting approach whatsoever!

      The rest was Murphy who is precisely what the gys in the booth are saying they should be more like and Turner who was so damn clutch in driving in rns when he had the opportunity!

      It was not the batting approach that scored those runs it was a high OB Reyes and Beltran returning to his former batting self plus Murphy and Turner taking over when Reyes, Wright and Ike went down!
      It was really those two who made the team as good as it was before we gave up and started mortgaging all our big chips!
• Hodges14 May 5, 2012 at 12:28 am

  Amateur batting coaches constantly offer mind cluttering, doubt building, negative thinking, defensive hitting approaches as the hitter get ready for the pitch.

  Amateur baseball coaches and baseball parents will verbalize harmful doubt filled batting tips like:

  • Make it be right here on a batting tee.

  • Don’t help out the pitcher now.

  • Lay off that ‘high one’.

  • Make it be in there now.

  • Stay Back. Don’t lunge now.

  • Let the ball ‘travel’

  • Let the ball get ‘deep’.

  • Be ‘patient’

  This is all amateur baseball code-word batting tips for causing doubt in the hitters mind. Coaches are now putting their own batters on a defensive thinking mindset.

  The youth baseball coach is now doing a tremendous damage to their batter’s ability to take full advantage of the count in the batters favor by giving all these negative coaching cues.

  Now the batter is so worried about making a mistake that they now will likely hesitate just long enough to be late on the fastball pitch….Result: Mental Batting Error.

  All caused by poor coaching tips.

  Contrast: Top Pro Skills of Baseball

  Pro baseball instructors and coaches will rarely say anything to a batter during their at-bat except for encouragement anyway.

  Over-coaching during ball games is not what pros do. They would think to themselves or maybe say batting tips like;

  • “Let it Fly”

  • ‘Swing-It’

  • Don’t be late.

  • Be on time.

  • Show me your best swing.

  • ‘Unbutton your shirt on this one’

  • ‘Give it a ride’

  • ‘Drive-It’

  • ‘Come-on now…get it ready’

  • ‘Be ready’ or listo to the Latin baseball players.

  See, there are no batting tips here that impede a hitter’s thinking except to look to swing the bat.

  Top Hitters know when to ‘Cut the Hay.’ And so do the top coaches!

  http://www.coachandplaybaseball.com/batting-tips.html
• Joey D. May 5, 2012 at 2:12 am

  - “Great job and I bet Sandy Alderson can’t be too happy hearing that. Like I said before – these people like Alderson think they’re smarter than the game and the game of baseball is going to come back and bite them in the you know what.”

  Hi Bayonne,

  Just because Bobby O. was a successful former major league pitcher doesn’t automatically mean he knows how the game should be played better than Sandy Alderson. Remember, it was correctly brought to our attention that just because Al Leiter was also a successful major league pitcher didn’t mean he knew the game as well as Brian Kenny.

  - “The Mets were 6th in the National League in runs scored last season with the same approach. But let’s just forget all of that in exchange for a month’s worth of data. Really smart.”

  Hi Who,

  Sandy Alderson revolutionized the game and knows what he is doing. Grady Fuson and Bill Gayton praise him for helping them better understand baseball. Sandy was the CEO at San Diego while both Fuson and Gayton were in charge of the Padres minor league system and the fruits of their player development and approach to the game turned out very well for the future of the franchise. San Diego won 92 games in 2010. Of course, that offsets the other seasons in which the team couldn’t win more than 75:

  2012: 9-17
  2011: 71-91
  2010: 90-72
  2009: 75-87
  2008: 63 -99

  That both were fired in 2009, Sandy’s last year of being the Padres CEO, is purely a coincidence.

  So don’t underestimate the importance of data. Data has proven that an individual whose roots were firmly in law and finance and admitting to having no knowledge of the professional game at all (not like others whose roots were embedded in both) would not necessarily be hired to oversee just the financial and legal aspects of a franchise, leaving player personnel evaluation and decision recommendations to others. Data now enables this to happen.
  • metsaddict77 May 5, 2012 at 9:28 am

    “sandy alderson revolutionized the game” LMAO
    • Joey D. May 5, 2012 at 1:15 pm

      Hi Addict,

      Sandy sure did revolutionize the game and has taught so many “EVERYTHING THEY KNEW ABOUT TALENT EVALUATION”. It is documented in this response I got about my suggesting he was more involved more in the business and legal aspects of the organization and that others do the footwork about player personnel:

      “I showed him about a dozen links probably many more than that which showed scouts, farm directors and many other “Baseball People” giving Alderson credit for teaching them how to every thing they know about talent evaluation. He still chose not to believe it. Can you say “Agenda”. Bill Gayton. Grady Fuson themselves credit Alderson for teaching them a whole new way to evaluate talent. Basically you bag groceries, and then become a baseball man but if you went to Harvard Law School there’s no way possible you can then become a baseball man. I find it funny though how he thought Theo Epstein being a lawyer was different because he wrote for his college sports paper. LMAO.”

      So we should recognize that Sandy has indeed made a imprint on how player talent is evaluated and how the game should be played. And it goes beyond just that. Sandy also had the insight to make a point in a Union-Tribune interview in 2010 that front offices should be hesitant to build a team around a ballpark, because half the games are played on the road. This also shows how little Brian Cashman and Joe Girardi know since after the 2009 season Girardi said the Yankees had the insight to build a park that favored the team’s strength instead of working against it. Now, just because the Phillies built a band box to emphasize hitting , it hasn’t impeded the pitching staff from still being the best in the National League or the team winning all those division titles. Just luck.

      Oh, as I side note, I said Theo Epstein was the sports editor and not just a writer for the daily Yale University newspaper. It is also interesting to note that he studied Law while working in the public relations department for the San Diego Padres but that he was not admitted to the State Bar. This is not the same background as Sandy Alderson who devoted all his efforts to the legal field, being admitted to the State Bar and working for a prestigious San Francisco Law firm before coming to Oakland to serve as the legal counsel but we should remember doesn’t mean that Theo was any more involved and understood sports than Sandy.

      Now you know why I was wrong to infer that Sandy might be involved more in the financial and legal aspects of running the club than making hands on decisions about player personnel. Do you now agree?
      • Metsie May 5, 2012 at 1:40 pm

        all Sandy taught them was what Stats he wanted them to track!
        He didn’t tell them a single thing about what mechanics to look for or what constitutes a good batter just on what stats he needed to make his sabermetric selections!

        SO while Sandy may have taght them what other teams would eventually request from Scouts he did not really teach them what to look for just what stats would be required!
        • Joey D. May 5, 2012 at 2:35 pm

          Hi Metsi,

          Don’ you see that we both were wrong on this?

          Grady Fusion was hired as a scout in 1982 by Oakland. While one would think that means he already had built up a reputation for evaluating talent it doesn’t necessarily mean so. He was probably not so good at it and that is why he is quoted to have said that he (and Bill Gayton do “credit Alderson for teaching them a whole new way to evaluate talent.” After all, Sandy had joined Oakland as it’s legal counsel the year before and a year later, as general manager, began showing Fusion how limited his understanding really was based on data.

          You see, most scouts are wrong when they say data on the high school and college level has limited use and one must count on their instincts of observation. Once you read the attached I’m sure will find so many holes in it regarding on the overall aspects of scouting and thus better appreciate how Sandy Alderson was an innovator in this field. It hardly touches upon computer analysis and video.

          http://www.worldwidebaseballprospects.com/pages-added/professional-baseball-scout.php

          I mean after 25 years in the game Matt Stark, who was the focus of this interview, doesn’t even have a format:

          “I do not use a format. I have a feel and a sense of what a player will be able to do, and let my 25 years of experience, work for me through observing the player, his body movements, agility, reaction time, athleticism, physical make up and everything else you can throw in the blender to make a intelligent decision when scouting and evaluating a player.”

          See how much he really needs to be taught a whole new way of evaluating talent? It’s obvious to me.
          • Metsie May 5, 2012 at 3:59 pm

            And when did he say that Joey…you see thats more important than when he got hired!
            Sandy taught him a whole NEW way….

            When was that taught? In 1982 when he was hired or in 1992 When sandy started making decisions on baseball and ran the show!

            You could have worked in TV for 10 years and I could teach you something NEW today and if you said that it would not mean I taught you anything you knew 10 years ago!
            Or even that I KNEW it 10 years ago!

            The timeing of the qote says Sandy taught him something new, but when it was said and when it was taught says nothing about the years before it was taught and what the teacher knew BEFORE he taught it!
            • Joey D. May 5, 2012 at 9:47 pm

              Hi Metsi,

              I was hoping that you guys might have caught on – that I was using the words and arguments made by others and expanding upon them to simply show how correct you, Bayonne and others are. I guess you can say I was taking their position on things, abiding by their own rude and sarcastic manner, to expose flaws in their own credibility. Guess I was so convincing that I even fooled you!

              I would never use these tactics with others we have disagreements with. As you know, the individuals in question are so condescending in their personal accusations that they lack the understanding of the civility and respect expected of those in a polite society.
              • Metsie May 5, 2012 at 11:16 pm

                I kind of knew that Joey but gave the response to that supposed evidence just the same!

                None of them truly understand that even today Sandy isn’t really doing the evaluations DePo is!
                He listens to what DePo says!
• Gregg May 5, 2012 at 9:26 am

  Taking pitches, also known as working the pitch count is the way to go. Look at the Yankees how they work the count. In today’s game, it’s all about driving pitch counts up. The facts are Ike & Duda both look way over matched at the plate, and maybe it’s time to send them both to Buffalo for a bit. I also fail to see the correlation between taking pitches and stolen bases, especially for a team that doesn’t have any speed. Ojeda should stick to trimming his hedges.
  • Bayonne Mets Fan May 5, 2012 at 6:17 pm

    Taking pitches is NOT the way to go, that’s not baseball. I can’t stand this philosophy of backing your way into everything and waiting for the next guy to make the first move.

    Bobby O and Harold Reynolds are right, taking pitches is only going to lead to the advantage going to the pitcher. If you happen to work a deep count and it’s NOT by design then fine, that’s old time baseball. Having every hitter take the approach like a leadoff hitter is wrong on every single level

    And you know what’s gonna happen if every game lasts 4-5 hours because of guys standing around all day taking pitches? MLB will intervene, expand the strike zones and make these guys SWING the bats! These guys are athletes and they make their money with their ability to HIT not sit there and take pitches all day

    They’ve changed the strike zone before so no reason they cant do it again and if it ever got to that point then they should expand the strike zone because fans are not paying to see guys standing at the plate all day doing nothing during 5 hour long games.
    • Des May 5, 2012 at 7:40 pm

      Bayonne — I happen to agree with much of what you’ve said, over and over and over. Are you not convinced that you’ve convinced us? Why the repetition?
    • zoom May 5, 2012 at 8:39 pm

      This is MLB not the Little League you so famously brag about coaching. In Little League they might widen the strike zone b/c some kids can’t throw strikes and they don’t want games to go on and on with every kid walking. That’s not going to happen in MLB. They aren’t going to penalize hitters for taking pitches.
  • Fonzie13 May 5, 2012 at 8:24 pm

    Gregg, the Yankees don’t stand there with the bat on their shoulders taking pitches right down the heart of the plate. There’s a difference between plate discipline and not having an idea at the plate. The Met hitters don’t have any idea of what they’re doing. The Yankees don’t swing at bad pitches but they rip the shit out of the good ones. They drive up pitch counts because their lineup is so deep, pitchers are afraid to come in on them. If the Mets were hitting those good pitches, opposing pitchers will not want to throw strikes and they’ll drive up pitch counts. If you keep taking strikes, you won’t build up pitch counts. You’ll be walking back to the bat rack. They did a good job of it last year but so far this year they’re not swinging the bats. They’re also not doing anything with the strikes that they are swinging at. They’re fouling them back.The entire offense with the exception of a few has been mostly awful.
    • jessep May 5, 2012 at 8:46 pm

      To some degree though don’t you have to attribute that to the fact that Kirk, Tejada, Ike, Duda, Thole etc. are not Granderson, Jeter, Tex, Swish, Cano and ARod?

      I mean just because a philosophy of having plate discipline exists, doesn’t mean its magic. Ike for example still has to do his job. He’s not. When he’s swinging he’s not swinging at pitches he should a lot of the time. That’s his failure, not a hope for plate discipline.

      We have to also remember that YOUNG players still have a lot to learn at a big league level and just because they fail now, doesn’t mean the idea of wanting them to know the zone is a bad idea
• Kramer67 May 5, 2012 at 10:44 am

  The only thing worse than Ojeda and Darling having a soapbox, is Bay-Yawn having a soapbox.
  • Metsie May 5, 2012 at 11:43 am

    And the only thing worse than that is Kramer having a soapbox!

    But it is typical of you to attack anyone who doesn’t drink the OBP Sabermetric kool aid as if they are a pariah!
    • Joey D. May 6, 2012 at 1:06 am

      And Metsi,

      Again the point you, I and others have been making all along.

      We can all be passionate with our opposite beliefs and even be stubborn enough not to give an inch to see the other side of the fence, but even with that, the conversation does not have to degenerate into personal insults.
• Bayonne Mets Fan May 5, 2012 at 4:08 pm

  Talk about timing! This afternoon on the FOX pre-game show the MLB Network crew fielded a question from Twitter that was relevant to this post:

  Question: How do you guys explain the no-hitters? Are we headed towards another dead ball ear?

  Harold Reynolds, who’s expertise I love listening to had this answer:
  “Terrible approaches, waiting for the ball to get deeper on you, getting deep in the count – that’s DEFEATED HITTING! That’s why the hitters are getting beat up so bad”

  ..and he was very emphatic on the last part of that sentence. Way to go, Harold!

  So in 2 days we’ve had 2 highly respected analysts TRASH this garbage of trying to work a count or “work a pitcher” (which is a stupid phrase itself) HOW ABOUT JUST TRYING TO GET HITS? And using your God given talents, your own eyes and leave the coaching to the coaches for individuals on case by case situations, instead of a bunch of beanes and aldersons dictating how organizations should operate and ruining the game.

  Like I said before if all teams took on this approach we’d be watching a bunch of guys taking pitches all day long and the games would last 5 hours. And you know what? MLB would and should expand the strike zone if it ever came to that. These guys are athletes due to their exceptional ability to be able to HIT not LOOK.
  • jessep May 5, 2012 at 9:16 pm

    Now look, I’m not gonna get in this debate of who’s opinion is more valuable. For every former big leaguer that says that, I am sure the Mets coaching staff can find you people who disagree with them who have just as much credibility.

    There’s no magic system.

    But I will say this

    If you knew anything about Harold Reynolds, you wouldn’t say “So in 2 days we’ve had 2 highly respected analysts”