31
2012
Looking Ahead: Summer Trade Season To Begin
An article by 
Tomorrow is June 1st, and with June comes the start of trade rumors galore. I’m not a big trade rumors guy to be honest. I think reporters do get valuable information, but I think so much changes on a day to day basis that trade talks can end before they are even reported.
The Mets will wake up on June 1st as the 2nd National League wildcard team. Maybe I am crazy, but I think they will be adding rather than subtracting leading up to July 31st.
The trade deadline will be very interesting this year. With an added playoff berth, most teams will think they still have a shot which creates a seller’s market. On the flip side, the compensation rules have changed, which means teams may be willing to deal players they otherwise normally wouldn’t have dealt.
If you assume (like I do) that this team can compete through July for a playoff spot, especially with 3 healthy starters returning soon then you have to start looking to see what might be obtainable.
For me right off the bat, I cross off any high priced talent. I’m not okay with the Mets trading any of their highly touted arms, and most high priced star players would probably need something like that in return.
I look at the C spot, and while I am not in love with Thole, I think he’s shown me a lot this year at the plate.
1B is a big question mark. Ike Davis is still below .200, so this is a roster spot I circle. Now don’t flip out on me, I’m not suggesting the Mets trade him or get an upgrade to replace him. I don’t think they will do that. Getting a right handed hitting 1B though is an option.
2B, SS, 3B you know are set. Heck, we have 5 SS.
The OF is a possibility, but I do think there is enough talent there to get by. Kirk, Duda, Bay, Hairston, Torres, Baxter. That’s 6 guys, so I think it’s more likely one of them goes rather than the Mets bringing somebody in.
I also think Hairston and Baxter have a better shot at stealing a job from Bay if he struggles, rather than the Mets trading for another OF.
Here’s a bold prediction for you. Andres Torres will not finish 2012 on the Mets roster.
Your 4 rotation spots are locked up. Johan, Dickey, Niese and Gee are not being pushed out of this rotation.
What happens with Chris Young is a HUGE factor moving forward. June will either lead to the Mets badly needing another starter, or feeling okay about Young with guys like Batista, Hefner, etc. as backups in case of injury.
Then you have the bullpen. The bullpen has big a disappointment, no doubt about it. I do not think you’ll see any deletions from the pen. I think barring injury, Byrdak, Parnell, Ramirez, Rauch and Francisco are here. So if you’re getting any bullpen help at all, it’s another lefty or a guy who can take work off of the plates of Parnell/Ramirez.
So we’re looking at: Right Handed 1B, maybe a #5 Starter, and either another lefty bullpen arm or a prototypical middle reliever.
So who is out there?
In the National League, I believe the Padres, Cubs, Pirates, Astros, and Rockies will be your only true sellers.
In the American League, I am going with Minnesota, Kansas City, Oakland, and Seattle.
Right Handed 1B:
Carlos Lee (HOU) – I think the fact he has turned down trades in the past, and his name value to the franchise will set the price too high.
Hm. So I expected to make a list of at least 3 or 4 guys I thought could be had, and were right handed 1B. Lee is the only one I got.
So, I guess that means the Mets really need Ike to turn this around, either that or hope Turner can heal up fast because unless Carlos Lee is a Met, I don’t know what else they can snag at the deadline.
4/5 Starter:
Bartolo Colon (OAK): He’s a very interesting story. A revival of his career actually occurred in New York, so you know he’s not going to shy away from that type of spot. He’s signed on a 1 year deal, so you know Beane would likely love to trade him. He’s pitching to a 4.52 ERA right now, and is 4-5.
Jason Vargas (SEA): Vargas signed a 1 year deal to avoid arbitration this year. He has consistently been around the mid 4’s in ERA over the last 4 years. He could be a nice addition, but I wonder if he’d be a bit too expensive?
Kevin Millwood (SEA): I know some people love Millwood. I am not one of them. I think he is too inconsistent. However, if the Mets needed an arm, I don’t think Millwood would be too expensive and could be worth checking into.
Paul Maholm (CHC): I think the only way he gets dealt is if the Cubs decide to just totally clean house. Garza would go first, and I think the Mets should avoid the Garza negotiations even though it will irk some Mets fans. I just think what he gives the Mets is not going to last long enough to make it worth losing out on Harvey/Wheeler/Familia/Mejia. (Though I could be persuaded on dealing Mejia there).
Jeremy Guthrie (COL): I think the Rockies are approaching a clean house moment. They have absolutely no pitching right now, and outside of Tulo and CarGo, they are borderline anemic. Guthrie has a 5.31 ERA right now, but has a 9+ ERA in Colorado. He’d go from their #1, to our #4.5.
A.J. Burnett (PIT): It’d be a brave move, but I don’t think it will happen. If he was on an expiring deal, I’d say go for it. But I don’t want him staking claim to a rotation spot entering 2013.
Erik Bedard (PIT): At 33 years old, Bedard is looking real good this year. He’s looking healthy for once, and is pitching to a 3.12 ERA. He’s somebody to keep a close eye on.
Guys I left off: I don’t think pitchers like Bruce Chen, Jeff Suppan, Carl Pavano, or the Houston pitchers will either be moved or will be worth the asking price. Suppan is an interesting situation, but he’s looking like his career is ending soon.
Lefty Bullpen or Typical Middle Reliever:
Brian Duensing (MIN): At 29 years old, he’s an arbitration pitcher, who has appeared in 22 games with a 3.20 ERA. He’s a nice arm to have for sure.
Grant Balfour (OAK): He has pitched in a playoff atmosphere before with Tampa Bay, and at 34 years old, he is at the end of his contract with Oakland. He does have a club option for next year. In 26 appearances he has a 3.55 ERA.
Wilton Lopez (HOU): He’s been borderline dominant this year. 27 appearances, a WHIP of 0.98 and an ERA of just over 2.00. He’s an inexpensive contract right now, so he may just be a dream.
Brandon Lyon (HOU): Lyon however is somebody I think that may go at the deadline. His contract is expiring, and he’s having a great year. In 20 appearances, he has a 1.03 WHIP with a 1.40 ERA.
Jason Grilli (PIT): At 35 years old, I cannot imagine Pittsburgh would demand a lot for Grilli. In 21 games, he’s thrown to a 1.10 WHIP and 1.80 ERA.
I’m honestly not sure what LHP would be a) available, and b) worth it. Do the Mets need a middle reliever more than a 2nd lefty? I think so.
The Bottom Line:
For the 2012 Mets, there are limited options with regards to adding talent. You cannot (and they will not) give up the future for the sake of acquiring talent. Most of the players on the roster have a spot moving forward.
If you agree that the Mets biggest needs barring injury would be RH 1B, back end rotation, and middle reliever.
So these are the guys I will keep on my radar for now. So much can change from tomorrow through July. A massive losing streak could change this piece into a “what should we trade?” argument. A big injury could have us looking at other positions.
But for now, for these 2012 Mets, these are guys I’m looking at as potential new additions by July 31st.
About the Author: Michael J. Branda
My time with MMO began in July of 2009 when I wrote a Fan Post defending Omar Minaya (before it was cool to do that.) I grew up a Mets fan with the mid 1980's teams. My favorite Met of all-time is (and was) Wally Backman. When it comes to sabermetrics versus old school thinking, I like to think I meet in the middle. I believe thinking of new ways to get answers is helpful, especially when the same way has not produced results. However, I think over-thinking certain situations can get you into trouble. I'm excited for the new regime, because I believe they have pieces in place to focus on several aspects of the Mets organization. I've waited this long for a World Series, waiting a few more years for another chance isn't going to kill me.
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NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 26 | 18 | .591 | - |
| Nationals | 23 | 22 | .511 | 3.5 |
| Phillies | 21 | 24 | .467 | 5.5 |
| Mets | 17 | 25 | .405 | 8.0 |
| Marlins | 13 | 32 | .289 | 13.5 |
Last updated: 05/21/2013
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thorough analysis. Not sure you can’t include a 2nd catcher, but I doubt there are any available much better than what the Mets already have!
They also will IMO be content with the current mix of guys sharing 1B time. though maybe we get lucky, and Ike comes back to life, and can even hit lefties?
Pitching thought, that is always the problem. Not a lot to get excited about on your list, but I think they could be making a run (along with 20 other teams!) at a SP.
BP, that they really need to focus on. Would be nice to be on the recieving end of a KRod type deal and pick up a 2nd closer to be a set-up man. Ideal would be a team with a closer they want to clear salary on that the mets can use what they saved on. Of all your needs identified, a good set up option seems to be the most likely.
hey stick, thanks for the comment.
The backup C is an interesting case. Truly though, what more will you find outside of Johnson/Nickeas? You may find another guy just like them, but why bother?
A guy like Colon to me is somebody who can be had cheap and quickly. I think people will be pounding down the door of Cubs and Astros for guys like Garza and Wandy. Those guys are probably too expensive, and if you can’t win with Johan-Dickey-Niese as your 1-3, then you’re in trouble anyway.
The Mets have a LOT of spots that are just not being upgraded. In reality the bench is probably set, everybody but your backup 1B is probably set… so even though we may want some big time piece brought in… it may not be realistic
Hi Jessup – Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it. In 2004, the Mets were barely hanging around the top of the standings and had a strong interleague series against the Yankees. Next thing you know, Kazmir’s out and “the other” Zambrano came to town.
Let’s not deceive ourselves. I like this team. I like its grit and determination, which are a reflection of their manager and indicative of a culture shift throughout the organization. But to draw from an analogy, in my book, its 1983 and we have some work to do in fortifying the organization at the minor league level. Here’s what I mean…
At an organizational level, we have a BIG ISSUE that I’d really like the Met Brass to consider. We are so laden with left-handed bats and carry some talented, yet expendable arms, why don’t we jettison some of our genuine talent in return for genuine talent from the right side.
For example, Jake Marisnick is a right-handed hitting centerfield prospect and ranked # 3 in Blue Jays system. He’s 6’4″, weighs over 200 lbs and runs like a deer and hits with power. Wouldn’t it make sense to offer Familia & Valdespin for him – heck, I’d trade Familia & Murphy to bring him in.
Another example is Giant’s centerfield prospect Gary Brown. I think he’s out of Cal-Fullerton or Fresno State and put up insane numbers last year in PCL-type hitters league. This year he’s getting a taste of the Eastern League in which Bingy Mets play and his numbers are down. I’m sure it’s just an adjustment for him, but this kid has enormous potential and has demonstrated superior skill at every level he’s played. His name was discussed during the Beltran trade last year. Again, I’m thinking we can move Mejia/Valdespin/Muphy (not all three, obviously) in a deal.
BTW, I’m really pissed-off that we didn’t trade Jose Reyes for Brown and another prospect last year. Holding onto Reyes was a stupid indulgence.
In my book, in a trade at the prospect level, guys such as Harvey, Wheeler, Duda & Niewenhuis are untouchable.( Kirk has a superior cool factor & is a total gamer.) What I’m saying is that if guys like Baxter, Davis, Valdespin, Murphy, Mejia & Familia either maintain or boost their trade value, perhaps we should seriously consider making some adjustments at the minor league level, much like Frank Cashen did when he acquired Darling, Sid Fernandez & guys like that in the early 1980′s.
In a year or two, an outfield rotation of Duda, Niewenhuis, Brown, Marisnick & Baxter-type would be an outstanding mix of power, speed and stellar defense. All that, with Brandon Nimmo on the rise.
These are the type of trades that the Mets should be considering, and not bringing in a retread to make a playoff push. Such a thought would deviate from the house-cleaning that has been taking place. We like fresh air in Flushing.
Tommy: Kazmir was also a top prospect. I think (or thought) I made it clear, I am not looking for the Mets to overspend here.
I’m honestly not sure about your suggestions on other trades, but I do believe the Mets can add, and be competitive without giving up the important aspects of the future (such as some of the top prospect arms etc)
I think your practical discussion about Reyes is fair, but I don’t think it was realistic. Not if you expect Citi Field to not get burned to the ground. You may have been ready for Reyes to be traded, but most were not.
Why not try to get a closer? It’ll push everyone in the pen down one spot and in theory make everyone better.
Jonathan Broxton looks like a possibility. He’s looking pretty good this year and has a one year contract with KC. He wouldn’t cost a ton of money (only making 4-5mil this year) and I doubt that KC will be competing for a WC.
I wouldn’t trade any of our young pitchers, but assuming we lock up Wright long term, Murph gets 2nd and Kirk, Duda, Den Dekker and Nimmo have the OF locked up, we could trade any of the following; Aderlin Rodriguez, Wilmer Flores, Reese Havens, Jefry Marte, Cesar Puello, Juan Lagares… and not hurt team depth too much.
USMF: Its not the worst idea in the world. Just from my vantage point, you’re getting a roll of the dice with a closer anyway. As bad as Francisco has been in a few of his save chances, there aren’t REALLY many out there better.
Of the teams I mentioned that I expect to be dealers you have:
Broxton, Capps, League, Fuentes (possibly Lefty Reliever?), Marmol or Dolis, Myers, Hanrahan, Street if healthy, Betancourt
For me, I personally do not buy into Broxton staying healthy in 2012. But if he’s there in July and still healthy, then yeah… kick those tires. I just feel people/teams over value closers so much and none of those guys are SO much better than Francisco/Rauch/Ramirez/Parnell that it’d be worth a ton to go after them. Francisco has had 6 games straight without giving up a run. He’s showing signs of improvement.
Since Pittsburgh isn’t going anywhere, I wonder if we could entice them to trade Hanrahan for a couple of prospects. He’s gotten so much better, he’s probably up at the top with Kimbrel as tops in the NL even though he’s walked few more than I’d like he doesn’t give up many hits and he’s under control for another year. They could use some offense Not sure what it would take. I’d even throw in Parnell who might flourish in Pittsburgh.
Maybe… the thing with the closer market honestly in my view is there are probably other teams out there who will be more desperate for one than the Mets. I am always weary of small market closers. It’s why I didn’t want a guy like Capps.
I just think there is a world of difference between closing a game for the Pirates than a contending NY team.
I think there will be fewer deals, but those that get done will be fairly big. A lot of middle tier guys in specialized roles traded for good prospects. It will be interesting to see how teams approach things with the new format.
That said, I’d look for some back of the rotation help and a power hitting OF. The Mets are winning with small ball and that won’t carry you through 162 games. (Maybe if you had an elite rotation and a weak division, neither of which apply to the Mets) and it sure as hell won’t win in October.
If we get a true power hitter and put up more runs, that will take pressure off the entire pitching staff and the bullpen will look better.
so trading need for need, the way BB is supposed to work? That would be nice to see, insted of salary dumps and vulturing.
unfortuneatley, I think the power hitting OF would have to be Bay (and of course, duda can just keep hitting HRs and cover part of the need)
We could trade need for need. We have some good defensive 4th OFs (Baxter and Torres) and a couple middle relievers. Even if we just get a left handed Scott Hairston and platoon him with Bay, I’d be happy.
Just say no to Lee.
What about possibly upgrading SS? I know you mention the team has 5 of them, but none of them are spectacular. I’m not trade guy either, but what about a Valdespin, Mejia and Tejada for Starlin Castro? Again, I’m not a trade guy so evaluating what Chicago would take could be way off from what I’ve proposed. They (the Cubs) also have that late bloomer 1st guy who can play the OF as well.
I honestly do not believe that Starlin Castro is going anywhere, nor do I think the Mets are in a spot to entertain dealing Tejada. I think it’s easy for us to forget about Tejada because of the injury…
I ‘d bet a paycheck that Theo isn’t trading Starlin right now. He still has to give that fan base hope, and hope centers around Starlin and their farm system.
You are most likely correct. But, never hurts to check. He has decent speed and hits for average. Even if it took Familia + Tejada and ‘Spin or something like that, the upgrade to the Mets would warrant it.
Ah, to banter about trades that will never exist…
Not sure if I am ready to start thinking about trades myself but some interesting stuff to digest here Jessep. Nice post.
I’ll take Beltran for Bay straight up and then put Duda in LF.
Of course I say it sacrcastically:)
Nice article. Of the one you mention the players who appeal most to me is Eric Bedard for the reasons you cited and Brandon Lyon for the bullpen. I’m not that interested in a RH 1B because I believe Ike Davis has shown signs of coming out of his slump. I would cut Jason Bay as soon as he returns, move Duda there permanently, make Nieuwy the everyday CF, and get a RH slugger for RF. Leave Torres and Hairston as your 4/5 OFs on bench.
Peter: Thanks for the reply!
I don’t think you can just wave a hand at Bay and cut him. For starters that is a big financial loss. Secondly, as much as we may look at Bay and shake our head… in his 15 games this year his OPS would be higher than almost everybody on the Mets, including Duda and Murph.
You have to give Bay a chance now coming back from injury. He was showing signs of shaking it off, he had 8 hits in his final 7 games before the injury. He could be a productive bat and we have to give him that chance.
If he doesn’t prove to be worth it, I think he’s going to split time with Hairston
Here are some guys off the top of my head that could fill the spots you mentioned.
1st Base:
-Derrek Lee (Free Agent). Remember him? Always loved this guy and wished he could play here. He still possesses that power bat that you need in the lineup. He tore it up in Pittsburgh before he got hurt last year. See if he’s available.
-Mark Trumbo (LAA) I’ve heard his name as a trade candidate early in the season, and it wouldn’t hurt to inquire about him.
-Bryan LaHair (CHC) No, he’s not a RHB 1st baseman, but with the Cubs wanting to clean house, you’d be foolish not to look at this guy.
Starters:
-Ryan Dempster (CHC)* Only if the Cubs eat a significant part of the $14 million owed to him this season.
-Bud Norris (HOU) UNDERRATED pitcher.
-Max Scherzer (DET) Not buying what Detroit is saying about not persuing a SP story. I’d take Scherzer in a heartbeat.
-Shaun Marcum (MIL) Brewers aren’t going anywhere and may be sellers.
-Juan Nicasio (COL) I see great potential in this kid. DO NOT let his ERA (5.11) fool you. His ERA away from Coors is 2.81 with a 1.286 WHIP and a 8.4 SO/9. Hint, hint.
Middle Relief:
-Evan Meek (PIT)
-Jose Mijares (KC)
-Grant Balfour (OAK)
-Craig Breslow (ARI)
-Brian Fuentes (OAK)
-Arthur Rhodes (FA)
Catcher:
-Geovany Soto (CHC) Yeah, he may be hitting .161 right now and Rob Johnson is doing an admirable job, but I’d still take Soto in a heartbeat. There’s no question in my mind that he’d turn it around at Citi.
Even Flow: Derrek Lee is an interesting name, but I can’t really get too excited about a guy who doesn’t have a job. Is he worth a shot on a minor deal? Absolutely.
Trumbo isn’t going anywhere, and if he does, it’d be so expensive. Have you seen his #s this year?
LaHair could be a fluke right now, but even if he wasn’t, what do you do with him? You’d have to deal Ike. There’s no sense in having 2 lefty 1B.
Dempster I think CAN go but Garza will go first. Dempster is a guy who I think loves playing for the Cubs. So I don’t think there is urgency there.
I didn’t include Milwaukee in my sellers because I am not sure about them yet.
I like Bud Norris, and I agree he is somewhat undervalued, but I don’t think Houston undervalues him. He’s just hitting arbitration, so their needs to deal him are pretty low.
Bud Norris – Houston views him as one of the few building blocks they have. He isn’t going anywhere.
Hey, you never know. Norris could be on the block, but if he isn’t, and I’m the Mets, my main focus then would be on getting Nicasio to fill the current SP need. He needs to get out of Colorado.
The author is way, way off, totally 180 degrees off. THE METS WILL NOT BE BUYERS. Let me repeat: THE METS WILL NOT BE BUYERS, REGARDLESS OF THEIR RECORD AT THE TRADE DEADLINE.
It is obvious that this is not a serious team yet. It has way, way too many holes to plug. The farm system is weak. There are a few players with 1 or 2 year contracts that, if the opportunity arises, should be moved to bolster the farm system and nurture long-term success (Wright, Santana).
The question you should be asking is who on the Mets will be moved and for WHAT PROSPECTS. IMO Wright is almost certainly gone if he doesn’t agree to a deal on Alderson’s terms. Which is exactly the way it should be.
Think LONG TERM. Not SHORT TERM. It’s short term thinking that has resulted in this franchise being the laughing stock of baseball, and rightfully so. Just look at the Rays strategy now vs. its strategy when they signed Greg Vaughn and all those other scrubs.
halflink: I appreciate the comments. I respectfully disagree though. I think this team can be “buyers” if the price is small.
I totally disagree with you in regards to them selling players like Wright and Santana. I think their presence on this team does more for the young players than acquiring more young players can do.
I appreciate the need for having prospects. But I don’t think you need to wipe the kitchen clean and lose 100+ games practically on purpose.
Jessep thanks for the article and I appreciate your reply to my comment.
Please name me one instance (just one) in the last 15-20 years (say, 1995-present), when ANY deadline move made by the Mets to add players to “compete” made ANY DIFFERENCE whatsoever in the playoffs WITHOUT severely damaging long-term success of the franchise.
If you can do this, I will be very, very impressed.
halflink: I think part of the problem here is two fold
A) You need to move on from the past. This is 2012, not the past 20 years. Different decision makers, different circumstances
B) Again I’m suggesting they try to get lesser value players. Guys like Bartolo Colon or one of those relievers shouldn’t cost you so much that it damages the future at all.
But since you asked, I can name one off the top of my head
07/30/07 Traded Dustin Martin and Drew Butera to the Twins for Luis Castillo
— Now here’s the thing though. You can’t base this deal on what Castillo became because the Mets didn’t have to sign him back. The truth about this deal was for 2007, it was a good deal for a playoff team like the Mets. Castillo filled a need a desperate need for a 2B at the time. He hit .296, with an OBP of .371, and stole 10 bases in his 50 games with the Mets. We can DISLIKE Castillo for what he became (though I still say he was treated unfairly) but you cannot tell me that deadline deal was not a good one to make.
The Mets may have collapsed in 2007, but if they had moved forward without adding Castillo, the collapse could have happened sooner than it did.
Another one you could say was in 2000 they dealt Pulsipher for Lenny Harris. Harris turned out to be a guy that team badly needed off the bench. He hit over .300 with the Mets in 2000.
So again, I’m not saying they need to go for broke here. I am saying hold onto your future, but if you can swipe away a guy like Colon or a decent middle reliever, then it’s worth it because you won’t have to give up your future most likely.
How about Shawn Green and Elduque?
Shawn Green waiver deal 06 should count. I was only answering the question based on the July 31st deadline
Duque was a May deal if I’m not mistaken.
But still, the idea that because they are the Mets they cannot make a deal without blowing their future is not fair.
On a lighter note, I saw former Met Kris Benson at an Atlanta barber shop (Goodfellas), he looked great, had his son with him who looked like a future stud pitcher. Maybe the Mets can coax him back, or draft his son in the future. Did not ask about Anna …………..
I saw Anna on Baseball Wives – what happenned? She really went south fast IMO. It’s not a nice thing to say but just stating my opinion
I guess she is biodegradable.
Hey Jessep, the Red Sox is putting Kevin Youkilis on the trade block, so you could mark him down as a possible RHB 1B option. He’s in the last year of his current 4 year deal with the 2013 team option.
He will cost a lot for a part time player
Like whom?