5
2012
Series Preview: Braves v. Mets
An article by 
I think it’s time we stop, hey, what’s that sound, everybody look what’s going down? It’s Opening Day!
Whether you are a Pirates, Astros, Yankees, or Mets fan, Opening Day has (or should have) a ton of emotions tied into it. It’s the start of a new year for many, time to move on from the never ending off-season banter, and focus on the actual game that is played on the field.
Let the prospects develop, simmer, and ferment in the minor leagues, it’s time to start talking about the guys wearing the blue and orange at Citi Field!
The season opens at home in front of what I hope is a supportive crowd. It should be a beautiful weekend for weather, and so you can’t really ask for a more perfect setting to open the season.
Bring in the Atlanta Braves. Last year, the Braves suffered an epic collapse at the hands of the NL East. Atlanta, who appeared to be a lock for the post-season finished their year with 15 straight games against division rivals. They won 5 of them, and watched as the St. Louis Cardinals took care of business.
The Mets had a forgettable year in so many different ways. At some point, the injury bug has to leave New York and head somewhere else right?
The idea of a full year with Lucas Duda, Ike Davis, Daniel Murphy, David Wright, and Johan Santana gives a Mets fan hope that perhaps this team can be better than the low expectations. Yet, the spring of Jason Bay, Mike Pelfrey and the loss of Jose Reyes brings fear and pessimism for things to come.
Both teams are looking for a chance to re-charge their fan base out of the gate. For Atlanta, the only way to erase the memory of 2011 quickly is by getting off to a good start. For the Mets, the only way to not have the boo-birds take over Citi Field is to play hard, and give us all something to cheer for.
Last year the Mets won 5 of their first 18 games. Can’t start the year like that.
Thursday 1:10 pm: Tommy Hanson v. Johan Santana
Hanson looks to take his spot as Atlanta’s ace, while Santana looks to excite Mets fans and prove he is healthy.
Historically, Wright & Davis struggle against Hanson while Thole and Bay actually hit very well against him. Could we see a Jason Bay break out on Opening Day?
I’m calling it now, why not right? Like Wright hitting a HR in the Citi Field 2010 opener, Bay will have a much needed moment on Opening Day this year. (If I’m wrong, well, then everybody else is right!)
Fun fact, this is the 1st time since 2009 that everybody who should be an Opening Day starter for the Mets is actually in the lineup (or expected to be).
Saturday 1:10 pm: Jair Jurrjens v. R.A. Dickey
Jurrjens is coming off of a knee injury and hasn’t looked too good this spring. He’s also a hot topic in trade discussions, so you have to wonder if the writing is on the wall for his days in Atlanta being numbered? He is 8-4 with an ERA under 3 against the Mets for his career.
Dickey did not have a great April last year, losing 3 of his 4 starts. I think Dickey is a great #2 here because he will respond well to whatever happens on Opening Day. Either he will look to put the team on his back after a loss, or he will be fired up to build on any momentum that has started.
The guy Dickey has to be careful around is Freddie Freeman. Freeman has hit Dickey well, while Dickey has handled the other Atlanta bats with a fair amount of success.
Daniel Murphy is the guy Jurrjens will try to avoid in the Mets lineup. Jurrjens has seen the Mets enough to know how guys like Wright will approach him, but when it comes to Murphy, Murphy’s got him beat.
Sunday 1:10pm: Mike Minor v. Jon Niese
Minor is a highly touted arm for the Braves, and this is a great matchup to see. In 16 starts at AAA last year, Minor struck out 99, walked 27 and won only 4 games with an ERA of 3.13.
In 15 big league starts, Minor struck out 77 batters, and walked 30 en route to a 5-3 record with a 4.14 ERA.
For Niese, you know the story. 11-11 with a 4.40 ERA. He’s getting (or got) a new contract, so the Mets are putting a lot of faith in him. But, he’s going to have to start pitching big like the contract he’s getting.
This is a tricky team for Niese to face. Bourn, Heyward, Ross, Freeman, and Uggla all hit above .300 against Niese with a minimum 9 plate appearances. However, all of those appearances came before his nose job, so you have to like Niese’s odds now.
A true test right out of the gate for Niese.
Series Summary:
On September 18th, Lucas Duda hit a homerun off of Craig Kimbrel which put 1 nail in the coffin of Atlanta’s September. You know that Atlanta, and Kimbrel have not forgotten that.
You also know, that when Santana takes the hill, he is the face of the franchise. The team feeds off of him, and so Opening Day should have some real juice to it.
I think this is a perfect team for the Mets to open up against. I’ve predicted Atlanta to have a letdown season (according to many expectations), and hopefully the Mets can exploit some of their weaknesses and get the season off on the right foot.
OVER/UNDER RUNS: The line tonight on Opening Day is 7, and we’ll set the series Over/Under at 19.5, to which I will select the over.
METS POTS: For the Mets player of the series, I’m going with Jason Bay. It’s a risky call, and it’s partially a wish.
KEEP YOUR EYES ON: To me, Freddie Freeman is the guy across the dugout that I’d keep an eye on. For us Mets fans, we are in love with Ike Davis, stemming from what we saw in 2010 .264/.351/19HR/71RBI. Freeman’s first full year was .282/.346/.21HR/76RBI, so if expectations are high for Ike, they should be mirrored for Freeman.
I’LL BE DRINKING A: Blue Point Double IPA, and a glass of Cabernet. Why the mix? Well, for Opening Day, we will DVR it and avoid all communication with the outside world until the work day ends. I’ll likely be exhausted, which will make Saturday’s Blue Point taste much better than Thursday’s. Sunday, is of course Easter Sunday for many fans out there, and we will be traveling to eat with family. Therefore, wine will be had by most throughout the day.
Enjoy the weekend, and Let’s Go Mets!
About the Author: Michael J. Branda
My time with MMO began in July of 2009 when I wrote a Fan Post defending Omar Minaya (before it was cool to do that.) I grew up a Mets fan with the mid 1980's teams. My favorite Met of all-time is (and was) Wally Backman. When it comes to sabermetrics versus old school thinking, I like to think I meet in the middle. I believe thinking of new ways to get answers is helpful, especially when the same way has not produced results. However, I think over-thinking certain situations can get you into trouble. I'm excited for the new regime, because I believe they have pieces in place to focus on several aspects of the Mets organization. I've waited this long for a World Series, waiting a few more years for another chance isn't going to kill me.
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Ohh GOD, You’re writing the reviews for the series????
LOL, I thought he did a decent job though.
My quibble is with Freeman. I like Freeman and predicted him to take another step this year and compete for the #2/3 1st baseman in the NL East. However the reason that many are expecting Ike to be better is his start last year. It is a small sample but it was enough to get fans excited.
That and we are Mets fans.
It was actually an intelligent, well written, realistic post, with quite a bit of good information in it.
Unlike your comment! And that was a joke before you go off again.
Probably shouldn’t poke at a marlin fan today, since they are all alone in last place, coming off an incredible embarassment of an opening day.
that was a 2nd joke BTW.
thanks stick!
Alex, first of all thank you for the Get Well card. It’s not often I get a card sent to me from The CORE so imagine my surprise.
Thanks to Mr. North Jersey, Bayonne, Maniac, Vinny, Pete and the rest of you! I hope I didn’t forget some of the names in the card.
Secondly, it gives me great pleasure to introduce jessep as our new Series Preview writer replacing John. I am sure he will keep you entertained throughout the season so give him a chance.
Enjoy the new season, you and everyone else on The CORE.
Alex, I appreciate your excitement!
JesseP, Good luck…. No urinals references ok!
I’d like to request an Easter uprising complete with a full scalping of all Braves in uniform.
Anything would go with that.
Only Easter uprising I know of didn’t work out to well for the people doing the uprising.
You mean those guys immortalized in patriotic ballads?
The one’s whose sacrifice led to three quarters of the Country being freed of tyranny eight years later?
Wasn’t it their version of our Boston Tea Party?
I never thought about that but not a bad analogy at all.
It make as a nice story, but the reality is, economic realizations had more to do with establishing the Free State than a post office getting shot up. The Easter Uprising was part of a long drawn out struggle that just became to cost ineffective for England to justify. Especially with WW1 in full swing. If you look at what actually happened in Dublin and around Ireland, it wasn’t pretty by any stretch.
It is a lot more significant now as a memory than it was as a current event.
T Agee, You’re team is playing against us today..
wait, now I am confused. When did Agee become a Cards fan?
HAAAAAA!!! well, the marlins play CINCINNATTI ..
Well, I guess a marlin fan would know that!
who the hell made this schedule? That was a 1-game series to start the season? Bizarre.
Yeah, MLB is getting stupid as hell, but i guess is based on the commissioner.. The all star game determined home field, that 1 playoff game is another stupid idea imo, now that 1 game opening day…
The one game playoff is just a cheap trick to generate excitement but you can’t say it won’t work in the short term.
Imagine when you get the Yankees and the Redsox in one game to determine who moves on and who goes to the links?
But if the overall goal of it is to stress winning the division it may work as well. Those teams are going to fight like cats and dogs trying not to be second in the AL East or West. Imagine, Yankees vs Rangers? Both could have 95+ wins and one not make the playoffs. NL East? Think the Phillies are not worried about having to go up possibly against Cain or Lincy in a one game playoff?
I actually like the WC play in game. Will add a lot of excitement. Plus, if they were going to expand the pool anyway this was the best way to do it.
What I am curious about is how you guys feel about the rotation matchups. They don’t appear to be that much if any in favor of the Braves. I know it will look much different when you add Hudson but how much of that is taken away when #5 is Livan?
I agree. pretty much a toss up all around (depending on what Johan brings to the table).
If he stays on the field, the rotation should be OK to actually pretty good this year. Everyone has potential, and not breaking in anyone fresh out of th eminors, and also did not have to sign a true retread like some other teams did.
That’s a big point, even counting Pelfrey the guys are either established like Dickey and Johan or capable of improving like Niese, and Gee. It’s nice to see that instead of guys who are what they are and that isn’t very good.
i completely agree with you TRS. In fact, in my mind I felt the matchups would be overwhelmingly in favor of the Braves. But seeing them written out like this makes the matchups closer than I thought and I feel we have better than a fighting chance to take 2 of 3 from them to start the season.
Agreed, a healthy Hudson though skews that way back in favor of the Braves to me.
Johan vs Hudson
Dickey vs Hanson
Niese vs Jar-Jar
That doesn’t leave me feeling warm and fuzzy at all.
Justin Turner 2-3 vs. Hanson with 2 HR’s.
Murphy 3 for 5 and a double.
Thole 7 -16 2B and a HR.
Bay 3-9 and a HR
Nice preview write-up.
I’d love nothing more than to see a Jason Bay breakout. I won’t be holding my breath much on that one though.
Agree with you on Freddy Freeman. He’s on path to be the Braves next Chipper Jones.
WHOOOOAAAA Nelly. LOL. Lets settle down on Freeman a little. Chipper is a first ballot HOF in my opinion so comparing the two yet is a stretch. I know you are most likely referring to passing the torch but I never expect Freeman’s torch to shine as bright as Chipper.
Yes, I probably should have added ‘Met killer’ – not predicting HOF right now.
I can see that Chipper torch passed to Freeman. Here’s hoping you are correct though and it doesn’t shine as bright.
I hope we don’t have to hear about Citi Freeman sometime in the future.
LOL, does have a good ring to it.
thank you srt!
I predict David Wright will get at least one hit to drive in a run and each time he gets a hit to drive in a run some doofus here will yell out the atypical sarcastic response of “wow, David is not clutch, huh?”
Yes somebody will yell that out on April 4 if he gets a hit to drive in a run, even though that’s not what we mean when we say that he has a reputation in choking in big spots and coming up small when you need him the most. Which he does and will do.
I predict a HR by Ike Davis today and a 70/30 chance Murphy will boot a ball in an important spot
I also predict that if he strikes out with a runner on 3rd in the 4th inning there will be a parade of posters talking about how unclutch he is. It’s baseball, people love to overreact.
Best bet is he strikes out in a big spot … That’s his MO.. But he’ll go 2-5 with 2 RBI and a 333 BA RISP…
Possible, all I know is I will be watching and excited for the season.
However, what I do know actually DID happen is your boy Hanley went 0-4 with 3 LOB including a GIDP. They better hope Josh pitches a lot better and Hanley rebounds from last year or they will be caving to the pressure as well.
TRS86, Better season Hanley or Wright? Whoever loses donates $200 To MMO…. DEAL????
gonna base that on WAR, right?
Sorry, had to do it!
Yeah that’s a little dangerous isn’t it? How on earth would we agree on what stats to use to determine who was better?
Hanley last year had a .712 OPS, god that’s awful.
Wright had a .771 that’s still bad.
I guess it would be a battle for the comeback player of the year.
eyes baby eyes.
Too early to tell Alex. But if I did donate the 200.00 it would be to a charity instead of a blog. I think MMO is doing fine on their own or should be anyway.
MMO is our charity.. come on…. Put your $ where your mouth is!!!!
Again Alex, there are too many good charities out there so if I agree to do it then it would be for a much more noble cause. I am sure that MMO gets more than enough ad money to support itself. I know we do and we don’t get anywhere near the views. Unless they are using it to play their bloggers.
Pay, meaning an actual paid staff. If they are doing that then I really commend them.
OK, if you win i donate the $ to your charity of preference, if i win, you donate it to MMO.. Deal???
I just said that’s not happening Alex. If I agreed to it then it would be to donate to maybe the Carter foundation or something similar. Not a blog.
That being said, how on Earth would we determine the winner? You most likely think Hanley was better than Wright last year even.
Ok then… i do not wanna hear a peep from you about hanley then… for someone who attacks when others talk about other team’s players you sure do bring up hanley and reyes a lot…
Why would I do that? They play for a rival and I will revel in their demise. Just as you like to talk bad about your own players, I reserve the right to bash the other team as often possible.
Now back to the bet, how exactly would you determine the winner?
trs, stop lying. alex never bashes Marlin players.
LOL, I never mistake Alex for anything but a Mets fan. Just a misguided one that loves him some Marlins players.
YEP, Reyes and hanley…. Funny when i have mentioned i LOVED george brett growing up noone says anything about that, but since i like 2 dominican native players from the island then i am a marlins fans… That tells me all i need to know about you’s
Oh your love for Marlins players goes beyond those two guys.
That being said, what the hell are you talking about? Are you seriously accusing racism again with YOUR track record?
Because you don’t bash Mets players in favor of Brett.
Of course, if we want to play your horrible, discusting game, we can point out which Mets player you are bashing in favor of those Marlins players.
Oh your love for Marlins players goes beyond those two guys”
PROVE IT!!!
“2 Mike Stanton OF (STUD)”
“NL Cy Young: Josh Johnson, MIA”
I could do more but the proof is really on you. I am not the one accusing you of being a Marlins fan.
So picking josh johnson to win the CY YOUNG and saying stanton is a stud makes me a marlins fan???? Wow, you’re more pathetic than i thought…
And cheering for them to win the World Seriess. and loving their players (no matter how much an underperforming a-hole) over the Mets.
Well for that matter saying that Kimbrel is a stud does not a Braves fan make either.
and if that keeps happening, they will win a bunch of games. And he will win the MVP.
and if he doesn’t produce earlier in games (what often gets referred to as stat padding time) there won’t be many big spots late in games to worry about.