Projections for the Mets Starting Rotation

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• srt April 3, 2012 at 8:16 am

  Agree about the health of the starting rotation. Beyond that, depth is pretty thin – unless we’re counting on Chris Young coming back, pitching good and staying healthy.

  I’m thinking 184 innings for Johan is a little over what we can expect from him. I’ll be happy if he pitches 150 innings but won’t be surprised if it’s even less than that.
• Alex68 April 3, 2012 at 8:18 am

  Robert, nice job, first of all IMO, if santana is pitching that well for the mets look for him to be on the block by midseason, whether the mets are winning or not if he’s pitching that well sandy will put him on the block for more suspect errr, prospects…
  On dickey, i kinda of agree, maybe 12 wins with this team is a stretch for any pitcher not ony him..
  I think the guy who might surprise us all will be dillon gee.. He knows how to pitch and if he gets past his 6th innings melt down he can be a real surprise for us..
  I think someone from the minors will come and help this team, whether it’d be swindell or miguel batista..
  Mike pelfrey sucks, BUT, somehow i think he’ll pitch more innings than whatyou expect, 180+ IP for him although, ERA sounds about right..
  To me the key is the bullpen, despite early troubles by the SP last year our bullpen was very solid (4th in the league) before sandy the genius alderson decided to dismantled it to save the wilpon cash money… Our offense was good enough to withstand the SP last yea because the bullpen was tremendous, this year, whether is a lead or to put out the fire, the bullpen seemed to me the weakest link, unless parnell emerges as a real stopper i see francisco, rauch and co just pouring gasoline on the season.. oh, and the defense will not help the pitching cause either
  • trs86 April 3, 2012 at 8:34 am

    I am not so sure a half of a good season is enough for the Mets to even have the opportunity to trade Johan. What team with that kind of cash is under the luxury tax cap enough to even be able to afford Johan?

    08:$19M, 09:$20M, 10:$21M, 11:$22.5M, 12:$24M, 13:$25.5M, 14:$25M club option ($5.5M buyout)
    full no-trade clause
    $5M deferred annually at 1.25% compound interest (payable June 30 seven years after season in which salary was earned), reducing present-day value of package to $123.1M
    award bonuses: $0.5M-$1.5M for Cy Young (varies based on number won), $0.25M each for MVP or World Series MVP, $0.1M each for All Star selection, LCS MVP, post-season MVP, post-season All Star, Gold Glove, Silver Slugger
    2014 club option becomes player option if Santana:
    wins Cy Young award from 2008-13 and finishes second or third in the Cy Young vote in one other season
    ranks second or third in Cy Young vote in any 3 seasons, 2008-13
    is on the active roster for the final 30 days of 2013 season, and:
    pitches 215 innings in 2013, or
    pitches 420 innings in 2012-13, or
    pitches 630 innings in 2011-13
    the party holding the 2014 option must exercise it by Nov. 15, 2013
    if 2014 option is Santana’s and he declines it, he receives no buyout
    perks: hotel suite on road trips, 15-person suite for 2008 home games

    I don’t see the Yankees trading for him. Boston? How could they fit him in? They would really be paying him 30M a year counting his luxury tax.
    • stick April 3, 2012 at 9:12 am

      Could be a bad contract swap, but that doesn’t do anything for the Mets. So they would likely instead just have to eat a bunch of the money (or a combination of the 2).

      trade Johan for a stiff making 25mill over that time? that still frees up 25+ for the mets, but makes him more affordable for the acquiring team.

      With a contract that high, you can eat a lot of it and still come out ahead!

      I personally think that he is going to stay here through the life of it. No clue how much of the time is on the DL (hopefully not much), but he will win some games, and serve as a mentor of sorts to the young guys behind him.

      Cold be a rotation in 2013 of Johan, Neise, harvey, gee and Dickey? So I guess that is 2 mentors. And actually a nice blend of veteran leadership (and talent), blossoming young vet type, hot shot prospect for the future, and a very good 4th/5th starter.
    • METS62FAN April 4, 2012 at 7:51 am

      TRS86? AWARD BONUSES? REALLY? WHAT PITCHER IN A NON-STEROID ENVIRONEMENT EVER WON OUTSTANDING PITCHING AWARDS AFTER AGE 32 THAT HE DIDN’T WIN BEFORE AGE 32 ESPECIALLY SOMEONE WITH 3 SUCCESSIVE SURGICALLY ENDED SEASONS? I BELIEVE IGNORING THE AWARD BONUSES IS THE MOST LIKELY TARRIFF THAT MAY BE TACKED ONTO ACQUIRING SANTANA, NOT TO MENTION ANY INDUCEMENT HE MAY DEMAND TO WAIVE HIS “NO-TRADE”

      AS TO THE ORIGINAL DSSERTAYION, ON WHAT REALITY PLANE DOES BORAS CLIENT PELFREY AGREE TO PITCH IN THE MINORS WHEN OLLIE PEREZ WOULDN’T ACQUIESCE. WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A VETERAN PITCHER HERE

      OF THE 5 ROTATIONAL CULPRITS, I’D ANTICIPATE BEING MOST SUPRISED BY ANY IMPROVEMENT SUPPLIED BY THE ENIGMATIC HAND LICKER PERHAPS REACHING 15 Ws.
      • trs86 April 4, 2012 at 7:57 am

        I am not sure you thought I was either making those things up or if I thought he would receive them. I just wanted to fully disclose his contract and let it be known in IMO there is no one trading for that contract after a half of a good season. Not only that, you would imagine he will be on an innings limit this year so they would be trading for a tired Johan on an innings limit with all those things left on his contract.
  • Alex68 April 3, 2012 at 8:46 am

    You’re right, but remember, a lot can happen during the season (I.e injuries) and you never know what a team might need during those times, mets can probably pay some portion of it to help the team trading for santana and not acquiring talent back, kinda like the krod deal last year..
    • trs86 April 3, 2012 at 9:26 am

      But Krod wasn’t owed what Johan is nor was he coming off major shoulder surgery. We may be able to have this conversation next year but Johan isn’t going anywhere this year. Again, looking at the teams that could afford him even if the Mets paid a large chunk…
• stick April 3, 2012 at 9:07 am

  I think Santana pitches way fewer innings than that, but (barring a DL stint) Pelf, Neise and Gee pitch more. I also think Neise is goignt otake a big step forward this year.
• Met Maniac April 3, 2012 at 9:21 am

  If the Mets only get 200 innings out of one pitcher, they may as well close up shop now, especially with this bullpen we’ve been blessed with.
  • stick April 3, 2012 at 9:35 am

    the only way those guys pitch that few innings is if they are traded, demoted or on the DL. In which case someone else will be making a bunch of starts. because if those represent what they will do in a full season of 30 starts, there are going to be a whole bunch of early exits!

    IMO, if you are going to predict innings in an exercise like this, also predict a # of starts.

    the 3s for Gee are particularly out of whack. Shows him with a minimum of 20 decisions, but 122 innings so that there is barely 6, not even counting for NDs. Over 30 starts that is only an average of 4 inning.s
• Matt April 3, 2012 at 9:48 am

  Good job, Robert. This seems to be a pretty fair, and non-biased assessment. Not too much to disagree about. My favorite is what you wrote about Niese. This is the guy people are clamoring to get locked up for 5 years (even though the Mets own his rights through 2015). Good job in staying objective.
• USMF April 3, 2012 at 11:38 am

  Robert, where did you get these projections from? are they yours or taken from Fan Graphs or Bill James?

  I’m very surprised by the low total innings pitched. Unless an injury happens, all these guys should reach around 30 games started. Even if the Mets go to a six man rotation sometime this season, that’s still 27 games started.

  Santana is a worry, it’ll be a nice surprise if he doesn’t miss time this year because of complications to his shoulder.

  RAD should easily pitch more than 200 innings, with the way the rotation looks, the pen is going to be busy and RAD is the guy that can give them a decent rest every five days.

  I’ve beat up Pelf a lot, but the one good thing about him is, he goes out and makes 30 starts a year. I’m not sure why we’d expect to see a 60inning drop from him, unless he gets dumped to the pen.

  Gee should get 180 innings in, he’s young and my struggle to get through a line up more than twice some times, but I don’t see any reason why he’d miss too many starts.

  Niese I think is going to have a break out year. He’s got the “stuff” and I think now is the time that he puts together how to use it. I can see him reach 200innings and 15wins.

  I think the Santana will exceed expectations, RAD will be RAD, Niese will take a big step forward, Gee should do pretty good as well, sadly I have no expectations from Pelf but he might surprise.

  As fragile and uncertain as this rotation is, we do have five guys who can win 15 games. Sadly, as good as they can be, I’m not sure how deep into games they can go and the pen looks very suspect and if someone goes down, we don’t have a solid “6th” starter anywhere.