5
2012
Opening Day Game Preview: Braves @ Mets
An article by 
Baseball finally returns today as the Mets take on the Braves in Queens to start the 2012 season. Let’s just jump right into what is going on today, rather than focus on the season as a whole, which is usually what today is for. For the Mets the major story line of the day is the return of Johan Santana who will be pitching in the majors for the first time since September 2010. Back in 2010, Santana pitched 199.0 innings with a record of 11-9 and a 2.98 ERA. In 2010 Johan faced the Braves 4 times totaling 26.0 innings of work with a 2-1 record and a 2.42 ERA. Fast forward to this past Spring, Johan pitched 18.1 innings with an ERA of 3.44. The Braves the following career numbers against Johan Santana:
Matt Diaz 16-32, 3 2B, HR (I forgot how much Diaz can hit off of Santana)
McCann 8-29, 2B, 3 HR
Prado 3-20, 2B
Uggla 1-19, HR, 10 K
Bourn 5-11
On the other side of the diamond, the Mets bats will be taking on Tommy Hanson. Hanson was 11-7 with a 3.60 ERA last season over 130.0 IP. He faced the Mets in two games last season where he pitched 8.1 innings and allowed 10 ER. However back in 2010, Hanson pitched 23.2 innings against the Mets over 4 games with a 2.32 ERA, so take those two lines for what they are worth. Anyway, the Mets have put up the following numbers on Tommy:
Wright 2-18, 2 2B (Yikes)
Thole 7-16, 2B, HR
Davis 2-10, 2B
Bay 3-9, HR
Duda 3-6, HR
Murphy 3-5, 2B
Let’s Go Mets!
(Don’t forget to check 213 Miles From Shea’s 2012 Mets Preview!)
About the Author: Elliot Teichman
52 Comments + Add Comment
NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 26 | 18 | .591 | - |
| Nationals | 23 | 22 | .511 | 3.5 |
| Phillies | 21 | 24 | .467 | 5.5 |
| Mets | 17 | 25 | .405 | 8.0 |
| Marlins | 13 | 32 | .289 | 13.5 |
Last updated: 05/21/2013
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Opening Day Lineup:
Torres-8
Murphy-4
Wright-5
Davis-3
Bay-7
Duda-9
Thole-2
Tejada-6
Santana-1
As expected. I think I might have switched Thole and Tejada.
could have, but that is a pretty minor nit.
I just am not going to have much tollerance for Bay ahead of Duda. Especially vs. a RHP. Expect to see duda left in the on deck circle quite often with this lineup!
Stick who do you think needs more protection though? Duda or Bay? Maybe having Duda behind him will get Bay going. Worth a shot. Besides it takes some pressure off of Duda to start with.
I’m not that big of a proponent of th ewhole protection concept. Better hitters should hit before crappier ones. The only real difference it should make is in obvious IBB situations or pitching around due to L/R matchups.
as to the pressure, Duda has a lot of game time under his belt. Including time in the clean up spot. So he is not some shaking kid starting his first ML game here.
and also, why is it always about hiding them from pressure? How about showing confidence in them so they feel better about themselves, and rise to the occasion? Besides, these are pro athletes, they are used to being stars/the best/pressure situations sicne they were kids!
You are a coach. Which is better message to send: I think you are too weak to handle a bigger role, so I am going to “hide” you to try and avoid pressure, OR I think you are good and can rise to the occasion if I give you more responsibility?
It would be like having a PG that you took out at the end of evey game so they didn’t have a chance to have a turn over in a big spot.
Stick it depends on the player and last year the staff made it obvious they were worried about Duda and his ability to handle pressure.
just the whole confidence thing (do I belong?) Pretty sure they got past that!
He hit clean up, he had a huge game winning (tieing?) hit off Mo Rivera, etc. After that baptism, I really don’t see how hitting 5th in front of a corpse like Bay is going to freak him out.
again, go back to positive vs. negative reinforcement. if you do have a guy that is not sure he can do it, are you better off patting him on the back and saying we have faith, or telling him we don’t think you can handle it?
Again it depends on the player, however, I don’t think you are telling him that Bay is better by having Duda bat behind him.
In basketball you don’t always start your 5 most talented players and you don’t always start your best Center or Small Foward. You do what is best for the team around them and put them in position to make the team better.
It might actually make more sense to put Tejada 2nd or 3rd for a lineup like this…
Torres
Murphy
Tejada
Davis
Wright
Duda
Bay
Thole
Truth is we need one more RH Power bat here because of all the lefties!
that is why Bay is such an albatross. He IS the 2nd power bat they need. Without the power.
if he was driving the ball like he was signed to do, it would be a very well balanced lineup power wise (2 strong LH and RH power bats, with a couple other 10-15 HR pesky guys in there).
so unless you can get rid of bay and replace him with some other RH power, it will all depend on him finding his.
its only going to get worse…Kirk hits lefty as well!
We have to keep in mind that they are going to play bay and put him where a good player is supposed to be.
The whole point being he needs to hit well (so they will protect him), he needs to get good pitches, he needs to be in a position to drive in runs all to achieve the goal of making him palatable enough to trade for something while we pay a big chunk of his Salary!
So they are going to place bay into a position thats best for him regardless of it not being the best for the team.
We are still in purge mode here, the problems is we have pretty much run out of contracts to purge! So they need to try and purge one of the bad contracts instead which means Put Bay in the best position to succeed as possible and hope it’s enough. I also expect Santana to be traded if he shows any signs of success!
If one of those two happens they can avoid the PR mess of having to let Wright go who is the only substantial contract left and would cause even more bad press for them than Reyes’ departure!
If they pull that trick off, power hitting RH OFs are pretty easy to find in FA! Especially if all you really need is a guy to squeeze into the 3 hole and maintain your R/L Splits
To maintain some balance I suspect they would platoon Kirk at first. They really need a 2nd guy to force his way up at the same time (Lagares?). That would be ideal.
Bay is not going to get a very long leash. They aren’t going to keep running him out in a key spot in the order if he is totally useless. Will not take long to know he is officially untradeable, so at that point nothing to lose!
He will get a chance in the 5 hole to start, in deference to his history and contract (and that happens all over). But it won’t go on indefinitely.
think it is a mistake to platoon any kid. If he can’t play everyday then your just wasting him!
The problem isn’t Kirk the problem is replacing Bay!
Kirk is likely going to replace Torres and if the manage to find a way to get rid of bay they are much more likely to move Duda to LF and trde for or buy a good RH hitting RFer instead.
I think at that point you can have Kirk leadoff and then have
Kirk, Tejada, Murphy, Duda, Wright, Davis, Bay, Thole
There also is not any law that says you can’t bat 2 lefites in a row. Or RH batters.
And not sure I want to see Ike shoved all the way down to the 6 hole, losing ABs like that.
One thing I really did not like seeing was wright and bay in order. Simple answer, ditch Bay.
There is less of a problem batting two Lefties than there is batting two righties because there are fewer LHP than RHP.
But you still don’t want to make t easier for thopposing manager to put in one lefty to deal with the heart of your order…
I’m not a big fan of the R/L Split but I do believe that it well accepted in the league and that the only way to fight it is to keep your linup alternating if for no other reason than to have the opposition burn through it’s bullpen faster.
Sorry early submit…
If Tejada is 2nd it looks like this…
Torres
Tejada
Duda
Wright
Davis
Bay
Murphy
Thole
I personally like Tejada 3rd better than this lineup.
You can’t put Tejada 3rd. Impossible at this point in his career. 3rd is for your “best hitter”. We can debate if that is still Wright or not but it sure the heck isn’t Tejada.
Now I could live with Tejada leading off but they are trying to take pressure off of him not put it on him.
a 22 year old who hits .284 is a pretty damn good hitter!
And the truth of the matter is it isn’t important to have your best hitter in the 3 hole just a good hitter with decent average!
Ideally what you want is a line drive hitter who can hit to all fields and do it for a good average!
Tejada being as young as he is can become a consistent .300 hitter and he already is a good enough line drive hitter to be a good #3 guy.
Eventually he is an ideal #2 guy and you will be able to do that if we had a RH hitting power bat instead of Bay!
Then you put Murphy or Duda in the 3 hole, Wright into 4th and the lineup R/L splits fine.
Well, I will fully support Duda ending up in the 3 hole.
but not a chance in the world it will be Tejada. 2nd you can make a case for, but no way 3rd (the traditional spot for you best hitter).
Plus it is taking ABs away from Ike.
Just need to make Bay go away and there will be a lot more options.
actually, Bay in the 2 hole is one of the out of the box options:
Torres
Bay
Duda
wright
davis
murphy
tejad
thole
Nah, that still looks lousy with Bay.
I don’t get where you guys got this myth that you need your best hitter in the 3 hole…
Sure it was what we had in 86 but there wasn’t weak hitter in the 86 lineup and Backman had a better averagre than hernandez…
LINE DRIVE HITTER is what you want there! Yes he has to have a good average but it does not have to be your best average!
Murphy is the ideal #3 right now, not so much because of his average but because of his Line Drive just shy of power potential.
Hernandez was a Line drive hitter who wasn’t a big HR threat as well!
All you really want a a good average Line Drive hitter who can move those runners over and maybe score a run in the proccess so those power hitters with a lower average can still get RBI’s even when they fall just short of the fences and get the sacrifice instead!
And any kid hitting .280+ at 22 years old I say is on the way to being the hitter you want in that 3 hole!
Not sure how much a line drive hitter you can really be with a slg% of .350.
I’m assuming you LD logic is thinking of the ideal guy being a doubles up the gap machine type?
yep which is why Murphy is our best 3 hole candidate!
Really what you want is a guy who doesn’t strike out much, hits for some decent EBH power (not HRs) and puts the ball in play to the OF!
Thats the one trait that tejada has yet to show so far. He hits a lot of ground ball hits through the infield which in time can be a DP. But the ideal #3 hits line drives, gappers and down the line (hernandez’ great skill) that moves the runners over even at time when he makes an out and can drive in a runner on 1st!
If he is selective (as Hernandez and Tejada are) he will also get on base for the power hitters and leave no place to put them!
it’s not about how often he makes an out but what TYPE of outs he records.
In the #3 hole making an out on the ground is a bad thing…Making them in the OF often leads to advancine the runners where the power hitters can drive them in either because of a hit, a HR or even a Sac Fly!
you are actually equating Tejada now with Keith as a Met?
Man, and people say I go over the top for Duda!
No your missing the point!
It’s not about the SLG or the BA…
It’s about the type of hits you hit, HOW you put the ball in play not the actual play that resulted!
You don’t want a GB hitter in the 3 hole!
You want a guy to hit it to the OF, doesn’t need to be a double or even a hit!
Putting the ball in the OF ves runners forward and scores them!
What you want is a contact hitter (Both hernandez and Tejada fit that role as does Murphy) who can get the ball out of the IF and the SLG BA and POWER do not matter!
Of course 44.6% of Tejada’s hits last year were GB.
Mostly because all over baseball it’s knows as either 1A or 1B in terms of your best hitter?
oh it’s one of those statements like used to say OBP is better than BA and used league wide over BA but really isn’t?
OK go find me the worst SLG% for a #3 hitter.
You got a point to make then go do your own legwork and make it I got no time for lazy bastards who can’t do their own research!
I love it. Thanks for proving my point.
What point where is your data?
Did you expect me to have nothing to do all day but to find shit you need?
Get a friggin Clue Schoolboy!
If your not going to teach then at least find the data you want to make your point and if not don’t expect to win because someone else didn’t do your legwork for you!
I’m busy today got no time for folks who have no point and wish to send me on errands!
So get your own information or you can’t make and win your point!
But get out of this habit thinking we work for you! We don’t!
If you want research done I charge $75 a hour Payment in advance!
Send the check and I’ll find what it is you wanted me to look for!
That being said it’s not that hard to prove my point.
The average SLG% for a # 3 hitter in the NL last year was .457 which was the highest of any spot in the lineup.
And what does SLG prove they have again? Power?
Really?
Is that what you think SLG is about?
That # 3 hitter needs some power and RBI potential as well. I am not bashing Ruben here but to think he is currently ready for the # 3 spot is just silly IMO.
Keith hernandez hit 13 HRs in 86…How much power do you really need?
Its an RBI slot not a power slot!
Power is not just HR. Are you saying Luis Castillo would have been a good #3 hitter?
Louis castillo was not a line drive hitter!
Neither is Tejada YET. He had 15 doubles and 1 triple last year with a .335 SLG% in 376 PA. So 16 extra base hits in 376PA. He’s just not a #3 hitter yet. I hope you are right and he develops into one but he’s not there right now.
if anything, I can see tejada turning into more of a 2 hole hitter.
As do I.
he also had a .450 slg%, and 34 doubles. So he was driving the ball plenty.
Not to mention a .413 OBP, meaning he was on base a ton in front of the big boppers. Often standing on 2nd!
That is a real prime 3 hole guy. One that can get on like a lead off man, but still drive the ball.
also needs to be a good situational guy. Adjust to the moment, play different roles (get on base, get a guy over, swing for extra bases). And keep the killer Ks to a minimum.
This is why I actually like duda to end up in the 3 hole. He so far has shown to be that type of hitter.
Right, which is why I don’t mind Murphy in the 3 hole at all.
I still like
Torres
Tejada
Murphy
Duda
Wright
Davis
Bay
Thole
Hitting with power with men on scores the runs from which people are awarded RBIs.
Torres
Tejada
Murphy
Davis
Duda
Wright
Bay
Pitcher
Thole
This is a lineup I would’ve rolled with.
Now there is a man that doesn’t care about balancing the lineup!
Not at all. EVERYONE in the lineup are exactly where they need to be in my lineup in this current point in time.
the only real downside is you will create some potential “breather” innings during the game. And make it really easy to match up specialists at the end.
works fine though as long as you have enough guys that can easily handle guys pitching from the same side. If you have a run of big platoon splits, it could get ugly.
also noticed you want the pitcher infront of the C, so I will pass on that.
How about this if you really want Tejada in the 2 hole:
Torres
Tejada
Davis
Duda
Wright
Murphy
Bay
Thole
Pitcher
I actually kind of like this one.
Switch Murphy and Davis and then you might have something. Davis has to prove he can hit LHP.
I could live with that, if Tejada is getting on base enough. Still hard to see Ike in the 6 hole, but I guess that would be a good problem to have!
If Tejada can show to handle lead off (in the jeter mold loead off hitter) it would really fix the problem (and I know about the whole pressure on him idea):
Tejada
Murphy
Duda
wright
Davis
torres/bay
Bay/Torres
Thole
L/R/L/R in the middle, with Ike primed in the 5 hole to drive in a boatload of runs.
Murphy and Duda are the 2 LH batters I don’t mind having back to back, since I trust them to hit LHP OK, and not strike out too much.
Did you see mine above? Kind of the answer to what we both want until Tejada gets more comfortable or Kirk gets here.
I understand your point on Davis, I just think he needs to split up Wright and Bay and I really don’t want Wright hitting 4th. So you either are stuck with something similar to what you have now or Davis batting lower.
I think for that lineup to work then Davis has to hit LH pitching better than he has in the past and Wright and Bay can’t be K machines. It’s not just about balancing L/R but about what the players provide. IMO until Davis proves he can hit LHP and until Wright or Bay stop striking out every other AB you can’t have it Duda, Davis, Wright, Bay. And goodness, enough with the Tony LaRussa stuff and the pitcher batting 8th. Just because he was a good manager doesn’t make him right on everything.