There are plenty of exceptions to the rule on Wins and Losses though, much more than just 2 pitchers. In fact on teams like the Giants, M’s and other teams with poor offenses you are bound to find one.

I agree Cain is better than his win totals. But the point I’m making here is that you guys are using him(and Felix) as an example of why wins are a bad stat because they are better pitchers than their win totals. So, I’m saying wouldn’t that logic make xFIP a bad stat because it makes Cain seem like an average or below average pitcher, even though he’s been one of the best pitchers in the league the last few years?

Johnson 9 IP 5 hits 1 walk 7 K’s 1 earned run.

Santana 7 IP (removed for a PH) 3 hits 1 walk 13 K’s 0 earned runs.

Not saying Johnson didn’t deserve the win at all. He pitched great and against a much tougher lineup just saying how is it relective of a pitchers performance when he goes 7, strikes out 13, gives up zero earned runs and gets the loss?

He pitched a great game, but Johnson pitched a better one. It was a great pitchers duel and Johnson came out on top. Johnson deserved the win, not Santana.

No Vinny is refuting an argument no one actually made. that is called building a strawman.

Then he tries to introduce other topics to try and obscure the fact that his point is not logically sound. A red herring.

A stat should rise or fall on its own merits, not how it reflects on a certain player you’ve already formed an opinion on. If a statistic relies on many factors that are out of said player’s control (like pitcher wins), then it is a bad stat.

Lots of 60 win teams in that division when Johan was on the Twins. Even some 50 and 40 win teams and 115 of his 251 starts were inside the Division.

Not saying by any stretch that Johan wasn’t a great trade or worth his contract or wasn’t a dominating pitcher in the AL but it’s not like he was facing superior competition night in and night out while he was with the Twins.

More like 3 times in 10.

It usually evens out in the long run with wins. Like with Felix, he will either get traded to a team that will score a lot, or the Mariners offense will eventually get better – It usually evens out. Cain is just the exception to the rule. And who knows, it’s still early in his career, it may even out for him in the end.

Successful teams make evaluations going forward and pay people accordingly, less successful teams or at least one’s with no other options wind up getting trapped into paying guys for what they did in the past for someone else.

My best guess with Lincecum is they already have a ceiling on how high they’ll go and it’s only marginally more than what Cain got but they weren’t winning anything without both of them and could have benefited from going 5 years and a couple of options instead of going two years at a time with both of them.

If you asked me 5 years from now who is MORE likely to pitch the way they do in 2011, 2012… I’d say Cain over Lincecum because a 32-33 year old Lincecum throwing the way he throws to me is less of a guarantee.

The Giants didn’t want Cain to be wearing Dodger Blue next year. That is what this came down to in my view. When this sale is complete, the Dodgers will begin to set the market for players, just like Miami did this year. And LAD is a very attractive place for players to go play and seeing Cain for 5-6 years in LA was not something they were ready for.

No one said that. Wins are a bad stat because they don’t account for fielding, offense and bullpen performances. Because they are dependent on too many things out of the pitcher’s control.

“then wouldn’t it be fair to say that FIP and xFIP or bad stats too because of Cain?”

1) No one mentioned FIP or xFIP

2) The stat stands or falls on its own merit, not how it lines up with one’s predertmined opinion of a specific player

3) Do you know how Cain stacks up against the rest of the league in those categories? His FIP is actually pretty good. His xFIP is where it gets messy.

From a pure stat point of view, ya, he’s being over paid. But, he may be worth more to the Giants as a home grown pitcher you can sell to fans.

Granted, if his xFIP projections continue, this can go downhill for the Giants fast.

Ok, so if you want to say his xFIP was inflated because of his age 22-24 seasons(where he still pitched pretty good by the way), then can’t I aslo say that his win total was inflated by his age 22 and 23 seasons? Because if you take those seasons out, he has a winning record.