2
2012
MLB News: Matt Cain and Joey Votto Hit Mega Millions Jackpot
An article by 72MetsFan
The country might be in dire economic shape, but don’t tell that to the San Francisco Giants or the low market Cincinnati Reds who both set new benchmarks player compensation.
Lets start with Giants starting pitcher Matt Cain who is now the richest right-handed pitcher in baseball after he agreed to a five-year contract extension that will guarantee him $127.5 million dollars when added to the $15 million salary for 2012 that was remaining in his previous deal. The deal includes a $21 million option for 2018 with a $7.5 million buyout that, if exercised, would raise the total to $141 million over seven seasons.
The only contract for a pitcher who wasn’t eligible for free agency larger than this one was the six year deal for $137.5 million that the Mets gave Johan Santana.
Big day for Cain who at 27 is entering the prime of his career, but can you imagine what the Giants will have to pay Tim Lincecum after the 2013 season? Now that’s scary.
Now, on to the big stuff.
Joey Votto has just agreed to a 10-year, $225 million contract extension with the Cincinnati Reds, the fourth largest deal in baseball history. Votto also becomes the third first baseman to break the $200 million barrier this offseason.
The deal, which includes a full no-trade clause, will start in 2014 and and pay him through the 2023 season. The extension will take effect after the final two years on his current three-year, $38 million deal expire. He’ll make $9.5 million this season and $17 million in 2014.
Votto, 28, has batted .313 and averaged 28 home runs per season since 2007, and was named the National League MVP for the 2010 season.
I wonder what David Wright is thinking right now?
About the Author: Drew Staley
On June 1, 2012 Johan Santana officially became my favorite current Met! I'm a Queens native who grew up in the shadows of Big Shea. I was a huge Ron Darling, Dave Magadan and John Olerud fan. Honored to be a part of such a great site for Mets fans. Ya Gotta Believe!
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NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 42 | 30 | .583 | - |
| Phillies | 35 | 37 | .486 | 7.0 |
| Nationals | 34 | 36 | .486 | 7.0 |
| Mets | 27 | 40 | .403 | 12.5 |
| Marlins | 22 | 48 | .314 | 19.0 |
Last updated: 06/19/2013
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Wright’s thinking he’ll be lucky to get $90 mil.
There’s no way the Mets keep Wright. All these huge deals will only make resigning him nearly impossible.
Sounds like the Giants by signing Cain has probably conceded they can’t resign Lincecum for the money and contract he wants. I see Lincecum going to one of these teams, Dodgers, Yankees, Rangers, Phillies, Nationals, Cardinals or Red Sox.I think the Reds overpaid for Joey Votto but he has become the face of the Reds and I believe he can take them to the playoffs.They gave him A Rod type money and good for him.
Not to get off the subject but the Indians just released Fred Lewis. He is a good defensive outfielder and would come in for less than a million. Good insurance for Jason Bay.He also hits right handed pitchers well.
joey votto is 28 and will be 29 before this season is over. gotta check the facts before you post
cains a guy thats never won more than 14 games. and was 12-11 last year.
25 million a year for that? LOL good luck with that
Very consistent 200+ IP 2.88 -3.17 ERA the last 3 years and no run support.
Agreed. Forget about his wins. Means nothing. Guy’s a big time pitcher.
Cain’s last 3 years have essentially been the same as Santana’s last three,
Cains 5 year deal begins at 27, Santana’s 7 year deal began at 29
Santana has a grand total of one more win over 2008-2010 over Cains last 3 years.
Hope this wasn’t too technical or sabermetricish for any of these mind reading reading freaks who stumble across these comments.
ah take your sabermetrics crap somewhere else
his carrer lifetime record is 69-73
wins are the bottom line. period
for the team, not for individual pitchers
Wins don’t matter, huh? Figures – Your whole moneyball/saber philosophy diminishes the importance of WINS. Sports is about WINNING and nothing else. Cain is obviously a very good pitcher but good pitchers put their teams in a position to win games too. He had a rep as a guy who was not a winner and as soon as SF got better he pitched some big games and changed that rep. But if throughout his career he can’t put up lots of wins with his stuff than maybe there is something to it. But to say his wins don’t matter at all is nonsense. Judging how your leader is running this team he’s thrown the big club under the bus since he’s arrived with 2 terrible off seasons, terrible signings for the most part – meanwhile other GMs who are trying to win get good players at prices the Mets can afford.
Wins matter and will always matter. Wright is not a winning player but you love the guy and Cain’s wins aren’t important – it all makes sense the way you saber clowns think.
If you’re trying to quote me, do it right and for once in your miserable life don’t blatantly lie and put words in my mouth. Team wins matter. Pitcher wins don’t.
not quoting you only giving my opinion of you and your stupid philosophy. Didn’t lie either but yet you almost ALWAYS accuse me of lying when i answer your posts so don’t know where that comes from except, well now since you brought it up, lying is something you’re accustomed to and have been proven to do so you must think it’s normal for others to do it too – and it’s not and I don’t.
Your answer was just dumb and you had nothing to back it up except your stupid moneyball/saber philosophy. Teams wins matter and pitchers wins matter too, I like winners before numbers. Cain is an good pitcher and would probably be the Mets ace but maybe there’s a reason he doesn’t a high number of wins more often, maybe he pitches to the score I don’t know.
But his wins MATTER and team wins MATTER too. WInning just matters. Period.
“Wins don’t matter, huh? Figures – Your whole moneyball/saber philosophy diminishes the importance of WINS. Sports is about WINNING and nothing else.”
What do sabermetrics or moneyball have to do with this?
Individual pitcher wins are lousy measures of a pitcher’s production.
Yes, team wins are what matter. No one has disagreed with that.
“but good pitchers put their teams in a position to win games too.”
Which is exactly what Cain has been doing and why he’s getting this payday.
“He had a rep as a guy who was not a winner”
No he didn’t. You’re just pulling things out of your butt and hoping it sounds smart.
“But if throughout his career he can’t put up lots of wins with his stuff than maybe there is something to it.”
Of course there is. That something would be “terrible offense”. All Cain can do is pitch well when he is in, which he has done. He’s not responsible for scoring runs or pitching in relief.
Team wins matter, and so Xtreemicon said, but indivual wins for a pitcher is not a good way to judge how good a pitcher is.
Anyone with even a scintella of a baseball IQ knows that wins are not a good evaluation of how a pitcher has pitched simply for the fact that getting the win is as least as dependent on the rest of the team as it is on the pitcher.
Hitting, defense base running, strategy all play a part regardless of how well a pitcher does. Take April 11, 2009. Santana goes 7, strikes out 13, doesn’t give up an earned run but departs in the 8th for a pinch hitter trailing 2-0 and winds up with the loss based on two unearned runs that scored after Murphy dropped a 2 out flyball in LF.
What was a dominating pitching performance that deserved to be a win on Santana’s ledger became a loss because of defense and offense including the Mets being no hit into the 6th.
Hard to justify a loss and even harder still to believe this has to be explained to even a novice.
The use of the word “scintilla” just raised this site’s collective IQ. Kudos, sir.
“What was a dominating pitching performance that deserved to be a win on Santana’s ledger became a loss because of defense and offense including the Mets being no hit into the 6th.”
He pitched a great game, but Johnson pitched a better one. It was a great pitchers duel and Johnson came out on top. Johnson deserved the win, not Santana.
How many times as a pitcher, left the game with a lead, only to get a no decision? In other words, the pitcher did actually pitch better, but because of an inept BP they got a not decision? Hence the team wins are far more important than the line for the pitcher.
It was a great game.
Johnson 9 IP 5 hits 1 walk 7 K’s 1 earned run.
Santana 7 IP (removed for a PH) 3 hits 1 walk 13 K’s 0 earned runs.
Not saying Johnson didn’t deserve the win at all. He pitched great and against a much tougher lineup just saying how is it relective of a pitchers performance when he goes 7, strikes out 13, gives up zero earned runs and gets the loss?
I’m also fairly certain ERA isn’t a sabermetric stat.
once you start in with the “no run support stuff”, it just leads to the “unlucky” and all the other b.s saber stats. thats what he was leading to im sure. i can read that language a mile away
Ah. Run support is now sabermetric stat now, too. Right.
Where do these mind reading freaks come from?
hmmm, a case of Poe’s Law here.
25 million a year for a very “consistent” pitcher? lol. shit, mike pelfrey throws 200 innings every year too. 25 million/year is what you pay an annual superstar 18-22 win guy like a verlander. not a “consistent” guy. they got fleeced by his agent. period
Ha. Pelfrey’s consistently below average. Cain’s consistently well above average.
you can take cains 25 million/year “consistantly above average”. he aint worth that
I’d love his $25 mil a year. I wouldn’t be typing this on a keyboard with a missing “p” key and a laptop cooler that doesn’t cool.
25 million may be a lot of money as a general statement, but don’t put the consistency of Matt Cain with a 3.35 era in the same sentence of Pelfrey with a 4.40 ERA.
Having a career 3.35 ERA as a pitcher DOES put your team in the position to win.
The argument of pitcher wins and losses is irrelevant. How many no decisions did Santana have in 08? Last year Cain had 10 No decisions. Even if he won half of them he would have won 17 games. I’d sign up for that any day.
Agreed/
If the W/L record for a pitcher was the defining stat for them, many would conclude RA Dickey was a lousy pitcher last year with his 8-13 record.
Given the fact that many games these days are decided by BP arms, you can’t look at a W/L record to determine the success of a pitcher. I look at quality starts, WHIP and then ERA.
“Your whole moneyball/saber philosophy diminishes the importance of WINS.” That’s a lie. That’s actually two lies in one.
“Wright is not a winning player but you love the guy…” Half truth at best.
“and team wins MATTER too. WInning just matters. Period.” And I said that. You just tried to lie and twist my words to say that I didn’t.
I’ve also noticed you’ve been trolling me a lot lately. Just sitting by your computer waiting for your chance to bookmark something I said and link it two years later. It’s an honor, really, to be that important in your life, but I’d appreciate it if you removed yourself from my jock.
What is even more interesting is their definition of saber stats. ERA, WHIP, K/9 those are not even close to saber stats.
In fact if anything the true saber stat is ALL about winning. That’s what it tries to determine in general, how many wins a player is worth. I am not a big fan of “true” saber stats myself mostly because I think they are subjective and I don’t understand them all. However, if a team does and wants to use them to gain any advantage they can? Why the hell not?
I am far from a saber head, but I have the same understanding of the concept (what the association was trying to do): take all the counting numbers, and figure out which ones were “worth” more, in terms of generating wins. So like you said, it was all about wins. Even the poster child stat IMO (WAR) has Wins in the name!
“can you imagine what the Giants will have to pay Tim Lincecum after the 2013 season? Now that’s scary.”
The Freak’s gonna get paid. Although, he is a NoCal kinda guy. He may want to stay there with the area’s generally friendly attitude towards his uhh…glaucoma medicine.
Anyone think Johan isn’t a “winner”? Well, he was the poster child for pitching great and not having any wins to show for it.
Well, let’s see, 69-73 3.35 in his career while pitching in a pitcher’s park in a division that is mostly known to be a weak division in terms of offensive teams… Making all that money is just crazy if you ask me, but of course, this is the same team that signed barry zito and aaron rowand, then somehow won a WS with both of them ON THE ROSTER… so it’s kinda hard to argue with what the front office is doing, but hidnsight will tell you, this man does not deserve that money, he’s never won more than 14 games in his career and has a LOSING RECORD in his career. At least cliff lee won a CY YOUNG and DOMINATED the american league before getting paid like he did, this guy is just not worth the money..
It’s hard to say, I mean you look at his stuff and he is flat dominant but true he hasn’t produced the wins. Have you ever looked at his run support stats though? The Giants are built on pitching and if one of those two leaves, they are done so he kind of had them where he wanted. Imagine how much leverage Lincy would have had if Cain had left for the Dodgers?
Lets say both came on the market this off season but who would you rather have? Johnson or Cain?
Johnson 27 years old , better ERA (2.97), better winning percentage (48-23), 112 starts, 713 innings the last 7 years.
Cain 26 years old, 3.35 ERA, 69-73, 204 starts, 1317 innings last 7 years.
All their other stats are almost identical. So everything being even on an open market who do you think gets paid more?
I actually think it is a crazy contract for the guy. largely based of course on projections, but it really does seem excessive. Very good pitcher, would love to have him on the team, but just does not seem like someone that should be the highest paid SP (at least RH one).
I am not saying it isn’t excessive, it’s more about the market and leverage. If Cain leaves the Giants, they are in trouble. Especially if he were to go to LA. Then how much does Lincy ask for?
TRS, point is you’regiving cain sabathia like annually dollars… Is he as good as sabathia? or even lee for that matter? i know he’s got the stuff but you can go based on that..
And I am asking you if Cain and Johnson were FA next off-season how much money would they get and who would get more?
Actually, even with park factors considered, he’s still one of the best pitchers in the league.
“he’s never won more than 14 games in his career and has a LOSING RECORD in his career.”
I guess no one ever explained this to you, but you win baseball games by scoring more runs than the other team. If your team is really bad at scoring runs or your bullpen gives up a lot of runs after you leave the game, it is going to be way harder for you to win games, no matter how well you pitch.
Wow, I guess you guys wouldn’t want Felix Hernandez either.
27-26 last 2 years with a 2.85 ERA, 483 innings and a CY Young Award.
I bet you guys love you some Dillon Gee, the kid knows how to win and give me Steve Trashcan over these guys any day of the week.
Bad examples.
Felix Hernandez in the last three years has the 6th most wins in baseball. And Steve Trachsel actually has a a losing record for his career(143-159).
Cain is a very interesting pitcher statistically because some people underate him because of his record and the sabers underate him because of his FIP and xFIP – His career xFIP is OVER 4(4.26) despite his consistently low ERA’s and WHIP’s year after year.
So, if we are going to say here that wins is a bad stat because of Cain, then wouldn’t it be fair to say that FIP and xFIP or bad stats too because of Cain?
Personally I don’t use any stat that I can’t take the information and use a calculator to determine on my own. Thus I am not a big fan of true saber stats yet, they have their place for sure but I am not sold on all of them.
Also Hernadez is the poster boy for stats with low wins the last 2 years. He won a Cy Young with what 12 wins?
So, if we are going to say here that wins is a bad stat because of Cain, then wouldn’t it be fair to say that FIP and xFIP are bad stats too because of Cain?
Perfectly stated Vinny.
They throw out the stats that dont fit their arguments and lean on the ones that do. That’s what sabers do.
I guess I am not a saber guy then because I can’t say I have ever used those stats.
That’s exactly right Maniac. My main point here is that they use a pitcher like Cain or Felix and say “See? wins are a bad stat!” But when somebody like Cain always outpefrom their peripheral’s they just say “well, they are the exception to the rule”. But why aren’t there excpetions to the rule with wins?
It usually evens out in the long run with wins. Like with Felix, he will either get traded to a team that will score a lot, or the Mariners offense will eventually get better – It usually evens out. Cain is just the exception to the rule. And who knows, it’s still early in his career, it may even out for him in the end.
You’re backtracking and introducing points that were never made. What does xFIP have to do with anything other than the fact that you brought it up because you noticed it was high. Wins ARE the exception to the rule, which appears to be the point you were trying to make, anyway. Cain is much better than a 14-win pitcher, but things that are 100% out of his control affect that total, which is why individual win totals for pitchers are a poor way to evaluate them.
Backtracking? What am I backtracking from?
I agree Cain is better than his win totals. But the point I’m making here is that you guys are using him(and Felix) as an example of why wins are a bad stat because they are better pitchers than their win totals. So, I’m saying wouldn’t that logic make xFIP a bad stat because it makes Cain seem like an average or below average pitcher, even though he’s been one of the best pitchers in the league the last few years?
Who was bringing up that stat though? I know I don’t use it so you can say it stinks if you want LOL.
There are plenty of exceptions to the rule on Wins and Losses though, much more than just 2 pitchers. In fact on teams like the Giants, M’s and other teams with poor offenses you are bound to find one.
“Perfectly stated Vinny.”
No Vinny is refuting an argument no one actually made. that is called building a strawman.
Then he tries to introduce other topics to try and obscure the fact that his point is not logically sound. A red herring.
A stat should rise or fall on its own merits, not how it reflects on a certain player you’ve already formed an opinion on. If a statistic relies on many factors that are out of said player’s control (like pitcher wins), then it is a bad stat.
Who said anything about FIP or xFIP? You watch Cain pitch, you know he’s a stud. You see him pitch and you know with an offense, he could win 18 games a year and none of your cohorts would have said anything about. But unless he pitches a complete game shutout and happens to hit a home run himself, there’s more to winning a game than just pitching that he zero control over.
Heh, I just looked up FIP and xFIP, and it’s actually gone down every single year of his career since his rookie year, and that includes his first full season where he struggled and had a 4.59 xFIP. It’s decreased every single season since then and was under 4 last season, and his FIP has been under 4 every single full season of his career.
So what’s your point? That his xFIPs at age 22-24 inflated his career total, but his solid ones from ages 25-27 as he entered his prime don’t matter?
2011 was the only year his xFIP was below 4.00.
Ok, so if you want to say his xFIP was inflated because of his age 22-24 seasons(where he still pitched pretty good by the way), then can’t I aslo say that his win total was inflated by his age 22 and 23 seasons? Because if you take those seasons out, he has a winning record.
So doesn’t that fly in the face of the point your trying to make? Over the last three years (hardly a small sample size), he’s one of the best pitchers in the league, right? When you talk about his career, you add in his very young, immature seasons with inflated numbers. That’s not necessarily unfair, but what does his 2007 age 23 season have to do with the kind of pitcher he is now, which is what the Giants signed for?
An xFIP above 4.00 is average or below average. So according to xFIP, every season in his career(except 2011) Cain has been an average or below average pitcher.
Then it’s a good thing no one ever evaluates pitchers solely on xFIP, isnt it?
“So, if we are going to say here that wins is a bad stat because of Cain,”
No one said that. Wins are a bad stat because they don’t account for fielding, offense and bullpen performances. Because they are dependent on too many things out of the pitcher’s control.
“then wouldn’t it be fair to say that FIP and xFIP or bad stats too because of Cain?”
1) No one mentioned FIP or xFIP
2) The stat stands or falls on its own merit, not how it lines up with one’s predertmined opinion of a specific player
3) Do you know how Cain stacks up against the rest of the league in those categories? His FIP is actually pretty good. His xFIP is where it gets messy.
From a pure stat point of view, ya, he’s being over paid. But, he may be worth more to the Giants as a home grown pitcher you can sell to fans.
Granted, if his xFIP projections continue, this can go downhill for the Giants fast.
If his xFIP projections continue, the Giants will have signed a stud. Look at the trend.
true that. Damn dislexia.
When Johan Santana got his 6-year deal he was 29, had already won 2 Cy Young Awards and was 93-44 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.09 WHIP pitching in the AL.
Cain is 69-73 and never sniffed a Cy Young and doesnt have to face a DH and has never even been his team’s ace.
If MInaya had made this deal they be killing him right now not applauding him.
I only wish Minaya had a young stud to lock up with that deal.
Pitching almost half his games against teams in the AL Central like KC, Detroit, Chicago and Cleveland from 2000-2007.
Lots of 60 win teams in that division when Johan was on the Twins. Even some 50 and 40 win teams and 115 of his 251 starts were inside the Division.
Not saying by any stretch that Johan wasn’t a great trade or worth his contract or wasn’t a dominating pitcher in the AL but it’s not like he was facing superior competition night in and night out while he was with the Twins.
More like 3 times in 10.
When I saw this headline, the first thing that came to mind was that somewhere, Hole Camels wet his pants. And his agent probably did worse…
If this is really setting the market bar, then assuming he stays healthy this year, is Hole going for 5/150?
If nothing else, the Phils must be pissed since they are still trying to work out a deal with him. Entirely possible though that in 2013, the Philthies end up with a $75-80 mill rotation, and that is only for 3 guys! Must be nice to be the rich kid. The entire pitching staff is going to be north of 110mill if Hole comes back.
Hamels was starting talks at “Johan money,” anyway, so I don’t think this is that much of a stretch.
He didn’t need Johan. Just had to point around the locker room (him, and him…)
But, still a big jump from 24/year to 30 or so.
What might make more a difference is not so much Cain’s deal, but that Cain HAS a deal. This now makes Hamels unquestionable the best available pitcher next season, and there’s a big age difference between him and guys like Haren, Shields and Marcum, the next tier.
I’m noticing a trend here. First off let me say, I really like Cain but I think what they did is almost exactly what Milwaukee did with Braun. They just basically guaranteed Lincecum will not be a Giant when his contract expires.
When you have the Dodgers getting ready to change ownership officially etc., the market for Lincecum will start and end in Los Angeles.
But I’m not sure why wins are such a hot button issue. We’re Mets fans, how many games did we see Johan Santana pitch well enough to win but not get the W?
Wins and Losses for a pitcher have nothing to do with sabermetrics. Anybody who says they do is just looking for a way to talk about sabr stats.
The fact that maybe you have to look DEEPER into a pitchers performance doesn’t make you Bill James, it makes you somebody who looks for answers rather than takes the easy way out.
In 2008, Santana won 16 games. He won 1 of those 16 games allowing more than 3 earned runs.
He LOST *three* games by allowing just 1 earned run or less. He earned 3 No Decisions by giving up 1 run or less.
If you look at his record of 16-7 you’d think he pitched very good. But if you actually look at how he pitched and how his team performed, you’d see he pitched GREAT for the Mets in 2008.
Wins are important, but wins also reflect just as much about a team’s bullpen, and offense than they do about a starting pitcher’s talent.
and putting aside #s, his last start was pretty damned good too!
I don’t think it guarantees anything with the Giants and Lincy. They don’t have to pay Zito forever. What it does do though is take away some of the leverage Tim has. If Cain had left then he could have asked for whatever he wanted and the Giants would have had to pay it.
I wonder if there’s any truth to the notion that Lince actually IS a long term health risk with his herky-jerky motion and small frame. The prevailing idea in this thread is “wow, imagine what Lince will get” but I can’t discount the idea that the Giants might actually view Cain as their long-term dependable ace because Lincecum can break down at any point and likely a lot sooner than Cain will.
That’s just me, though.
See, that is what I think. I think Cain got overpaid frankly, but they couldn’t lose both of these guys… so they put their $ in the Cain basket, and will be less likely to sign Lincecum because they know his price tag will be even higher than Cain’s and you have to wonder how long a pitcher who throws like Lincecum can last.
If you asked me 5 years from now who is MORE likely to pitch the way they do in 2011, 2012… I’d say Cain over Lincecum because a 32-33 year old Lincecum throwing the way he throws to me is less of a guarantee.
The Giants didn’t want Cain to be wearing Dodger Blue next year. That is what this came down to in my view. When this sale is complete, the Dodgers will begin to set the market for players, just like Miami did this year. And LAD is a very attractive place for players to go play and seeing Cain for 5-6 years in LA was not something they were ready for.
$25 mil is certainly high, but how high was it? Was $22 ok? $23? I think this deal was largely fair. Maybe a little pricey, but he’s only guaranteed for five extra years, and not seven, like was being given out to guys already in their 30′s. This deal is a much better deal for the Giants than the Lee deal was for the Phillies, for instance.
Not at all X, it’s a very valid concern and one the Giants may or may not have made.
Successful teams make evaluations going forward and pay people accordingly, less successful teams or at least one’s with no other options wind up getting trapped into paying guys for what they did in the past for someone else.
My best guess with Lincecum is they already have a ceiling on how high they’ll go and it’s only marginally more than what Cain got but they weren’t winning anything without both of them and could have benefited from going 5 years and a couple of options instead of going two years at a time with both of them.
Remember, this deal was extending Cain’s FA years. The Lince deal was only buying out arbitration. Those deals always pay less than what a FA can make. The Giants possibly thought that Lince could be worth $25 million annually over a long haul, and they weren’t comfortable with his long-term projection, so they bought out arb years, gave Cain with the better long-term projection the big deal, still have two of them together with Bumgarner, and will get two picks after the 2013 season for Lince. It’s not a bad way to do business, thought as we speak on April 3rd, 2012 Lince is the better pitcher.
Run support last year.
Out of 94 qualified players Cain ranked 89th with Felix behind him at 90.
Again, wins are SOMETIMES out of a pitchers control.
Right. I’m not sure why we’re acting like the SF Giants offense is some explosive offense. Imagine if they had a guy like Niese instead of Cain just for example. They’d lose 5-1 instead of 2-1.
Last year the Giants scored the 2nd fewest runs, 570. That’s pretty bad.