Comments on: Mets Over/Under’s: The RBI Edition

By: Mitch

Mitch — Wed, 04 Apr 2012 22:28:07 +0000

I’m assuming that comment was aimed at me so I’ll reply as such. I love how fans that listen to sports radio and regurgitate what they hear or read in sports publications like to make comments like “you know nothing about baseball.” My resume includes playing since I was six years old, invited to seven major league tryouts, as well as teaching the game at numerous clinics – I never played professionally, but if there is one thing I know it’s baseball. I was joking when I said it’s the worst team ever assembled because I know the author of the article, but you can’t look at that list of names listed and tell me that team is definitely going to finish over .500. There are two established ball players on that list, and the rest of the team is filled with up and comers or never will bes. Ike shows flashes but he hasn’t proven anything yet. Duda shows promise, but who knows what he will do. The only people that like Murphy are die hard mets fans. Then you have Thole, Torres, and Tejada on the back end of the lineup. Where I was joking about it being the worst team ever, that list of names doesn’t excite me at all.

By: jeff

jeff — Wed, 04 Apr 2012 22:10:25 +0000

thats a moronic comment and if thats what you really think you know nothing about baseball

By: Matt

Matt — Wed, 04 Apr 2012 19:43:17 +0000

Fribble = Friendlys. Blizzard = DQ.

By: stick

stick — Wed, 04 Apr 2012 19:40:36 +0000

still harping on that? SImply a case of a ROOGY that got torched by lefties and setting up a force. Not what you seem to think it means (or like to pretend for hyperbole) that they feared pagan more.

By: stick

stick — Wed, 04 Apr 2012 19:38:51 +0000

or Fribble?

oh wait, I think that is something you get at dairy queen…

By: SaltyGary

SaltyGary — Wed, 04 Apr 2012 19:35:58 +0000

RBI’s are so passe. How about a over/under on BAbip?

By: stick

stick — Wed, 04 Apr 2012 19:32:52 +0000

he’s not a big swinger (or big K) guy though. That is a much bigger red flag (jacobs flag?)

But, we shall see.

By: jessep

jessep — Wed, 04 Apr 2012 19:11:56 +0000

As you’ll see tomorrow I am holding out hope for Bay. Call me crazy, call me a dreamer but I still think he can be a hitter again. If I am wrong then its not the end of the world.

I do also think there is a chance that he is gone if he has a good early half of the year which is why I think his RBI totals will be higher than people think. I only peg him at about 80, so not going too nuts here

By: Matt

Matt — Wed, 04 Apr 2012 19:05:14 +0000

The main problem with predicting the RBI totals for the guys in the middle of the order is this…The Mets have no tablesetters…who is going to be on base for the 3-6 hitters? That’s a major concern for this offense.

Lucas Duda: 83.5…over (87)…at least he will have Davis and occasionally Wright on in front of him.
Ike Davis: 94.5…under (85)…see below, same problem as Wright.
David Wright: 104.5…way under (76). Batting 3rd in this lineup with no one on base in front of him in the 3-hole will be a theme all year.
Jason Bay: 76.5…under (71)…I was being very optimistic here.
Daniel Murphy: 70.5…under (62)…probably going to end up hitting leadoff or 2nd.
Josh Thole: 40.5…over (47)
Ruben Tejada: 49.5…under (45)
Andres Torres: 54.5…under (29)…career .244/.318/.403…118 RBIs in over 1200 ABs…is he hitting leadoff or bottom of the lineup…none of this matters because I don’t think he sees over 250 ABs this season.

By: Alex68

Alex68 — Wed, 04 Apr 2012 19:01:10 +0000

Jesse, gues you’re right, i mean, after all watching your boy heyward STRUGGLE the way he did after the league got a book on him is expected for you to think that way… Quite frankly i see your point, If he does good lucky us, if he doesn’t somehow that was expected as well..

By: Alex68

Alex68 — Wed, 04 Apr 2012 18:58:54 +0000

Jason bay over 77 RBI’s??? I guess that is your bold prediction for this year jesseP..

By: Alex68

Alex68 — Wed, 04 Apr 2012 18:58:08 +0000

trs86 April 4, 2012 at 1:16 pm

David Wright: 104.5 Under 102

You said he was getting 102 rbi’s.. I was just pointing that out…

By: Alex68

Alex68 — Wed, 04 Apr 2012 18:56:16 +0000

unless we think that they will pitch to Wright with men on base to avoid Davis coming up”

If they walk duda and pagan to PITCH TO WRIGHT, i expect teams to do the same thing again to duda and ike…

By: jessep

jessep — Wed, 04 Apr 2012 18:35:21 +0000

But stick look, he’s a big swinging kid who now has a big league book on him. How often do we see a guy have a good rookie campaign (especially when they don’t start on Opening Day) and then struggle during their sophomore year? I’m not saying he can’t do great things, I’m saying EXPECTING them right away is a huge, huge burden to put on him.

Putting him in the middle of the order with his lack of experience, is not a simple task. He also hit .238 with runners in scoring position last year.

All I’m saying is, Duda is being thrown into a situation where expectations are unfairly high for him.

He’s not an all-star, yet people act like 30HR 90+ RBI is a no brainer. In today’s NL game if you hit 30+ 90+, your name is likely Bruce, Pujols (now AL), Votto, Tulo, Braun, Howard, Kemp or Prince (now AL).

I’m sorry but I’m not going to “expect” Duda to do that right now. It’s unfair to Duda and unfair to me as a fan to expect that

By: trs86

trs86 — Wed, 04 Apr 2012 18:23:31 +0000

Good point on the pressure with Duda. That was something the Mets were concerned to start with for Duda and why they may have him start in the 6th spot. Double edge sword there though. Lots of RBI opps but no one behind him. I am also curious how if Wright is batting 3rd how those 2 would really impact his RBI opps unless we think that they will pitch to Wright with men on base to avoid Davis coming up.

By: stick

stick — Wed, 04 Apr 2012 18:22:19 +0000

don’t mess with the duda.

Also, that 100 games is not really accurate. a chunk was his early bench stint.

Once he really got a starting gig, the numbers went up. In his last 80 games (298 PAs, so close to FT) as a regular, he put up 46 RBIs. and production continued to improve as the year went on.

he is going to be hitting in the middle of the order (bay won’t last long in front of him) so 3-5 during the year, so no way I see him less than 84 RBIs.

and Alex has all kinds of lineup support theories depending on who you are talking about, but most of them are just designed to discredit any stat Wright has ever put up. But, that even supports DUda more, because there wasn’t much in the lineup other than him in the 2nd half.

By: jessep

jessep — Wed, 04 Apr 2012 18:08:43 +0000

Alex, can I ask a question?

How come the lineup around him negatively impacts Wright so much, but doesn’t do the same to Duda in your view?

Duda played in 100 games and drove in 50 runs last year. Which would put him at an 81 RBI pace for 162 games. Now granted, he should get better but… doesn’t the lineup around him have just as much of an impact than it does for Wright?

I hope I am so wrong about Duda but I think so many people here are overshooting on their projections of what he will do this year.

I think he’s got so much pressure from mets fans that its hard to see him meet the expectations to be honest.

By: trs86

trs86 — Wed, 04 Apr 2012 18:02:08 +0000

LOL, I never mentioned Wright. You did there obsession boy. I predicted Wright under as well.

By: jessep

jessep — Wed, 04 Apr 2012 17:58:00 +0000

My goodness where are you pulling some of these O/U’s from haha

Lucas Duda: 83.5
Under

Ike Davis: 94.5
Under

David Wright: 104.5
Under

Jason Bay: 76.5
Over

Daniel Murphy: 70.5
Under

Josh Thole: 40.5
Under

Ruben Tejada: 49.5
Under

Andres Torres: 54.5
Under

By: Mitch

Mitch — Wed, 04 Apr 2012 17:42:53 +0000

I agree, but there are tons of question marks surrounding this team. Almost everything has to go right for them this year to have a shot of finishing .500. They have the potential to shock a bunch of teams…But they also have the potential to be terrible.