But looks like I’m the one so far with the least expectation – eleven – whereas the consensus seems to be around 15. In case anyone is counting, that means I expect him to hit one less home run every forty games than the rest of this group – which means there is really less difference in our predictions performance wise, but I hate to think of how vast the difference will appears in terms of advanced statistical analysis, not to mention what went into determining that equation.

I have a felling USMF will be on point with Wright having issues all season from the ab tear.

Lucas Duda: 20- Over. I loved the comparison a while ago by Sandy Alderson of Duda to Joey Votto. He (Duda) possesses that kind of power like Votto and there’s no doubt in my mind that like Votto, Duda’s a 30+ HR hitter, so if he plays a full season, I’m gonna say somewhere in the neighborhood of 30-35 HRs.

David Wright: 25- Over. Big season coming for Mr. Wright, especially since this is a contract year. He’ll have his first 30 HR season for the first time in 4 seasons. Starting hot out the gate would not surprise me. I just don’t see him hitting all his HRs as a Met, as there’s a big chance he’s dealt, no matter how the Mets play.

Daniel Murphy: 15- Even. 15 sounds just about right for Murphy.

Jason Bay: 15- Under (for now). I want to say over and say at least 20, but his ST performance has greatly disappointed me from his late performance last season. Right now, I say maybe 10 for Bay. Fair enough?

Ruben Tejada: 5- Under. Although Tejada has gotten bigger, power has not and most likely never will be Tejada’s game. Being a patient, contact hitter is good for me. 3, maybe 4 HRs is what I see out of Tejada.

Josh Thole: 3- Under. If this was last season, I would’ve said over, but Thole is what he is. 2 HRs for Thole.

Andres Torres: 10- Under. 6 HRs is the most I see from Torres…and that’s just me being kind.

Lucas Duda: 20-Over, unless he slumps had reach over 25 shouldn’t be hard

David Wright: 25- Under, I fear his Ab is a walking time bomb and he’ll miss a lot of time

Daniel Murphy: 15- Under, I think he’ll hit great this year, but not with too much power

Jason Bay: 15-Under- ugh, I really hope and believe that +20 is a possibility, but until he actually starts hitting I can’t believe that Bay is back.

Ruben Tejada: 5- Under, Tejada just doesn’t have the power and I fear that he’s going to struggle this season.

Josh Thole: 3- Over, I think Thole has the ability to pull with some power and can get over 5HRs

Andres Torres: 10-Under, I don’t see Torres getting enough AB’s to reach 10.

Ike Davis: 25 – over 30

Lucas Duda: 20 – over 27

David Wright: 25 – over 29

Daniel Murphy: 15 – under 11

Jason Bay: 15 – under 9

Ruben Tejada: 5 – under 2

Josh Thole: 3 – over 6

Andres Torres: 10 – under 6

Wright: 32
Davis: 27
Duda 18
Murphy: 14
Bay: 11
Torres: ?
Thole: ?
Tejada: ?

Wright’s power is to all fields, especially right, so now Citi Field is conducive to his ability. Ike Davis was showing signs that opposing pitchers were unable to find any new weakness in his swing before the injury. Now it’s our turn to see how much pitchers have caught up with Lucas and how Duda can adjust to being pitched to differently. Murphy can hit some line drives into the seats with the walls lowered. Jason right now is one of the lost boys but if he can have just one or two games early where he feels good at the plate and likes the way the balls come off the bat (no box score statistics, just how he felt hitting the ball) then he could easily double his eleven.

Have no idea how the bottom three will do.

Lucas Duda: 20
Over (barely 22)

David Wright: 25
Over (barely 26)

Daniel Murphy: 15
Under (less than 12)

Jason Bay: 15
Over (18-20)

Ruben Tejada: 5
Under (2)

Josh Thole: 3
Over (4)

Andres Torres: 10
Under (7)

I’m a little worried about Ike. After missing a good chunk of last season, it doesn’t appear he’s got his timing down yet in ST. He might get off to a slow start. Therefore, I wouldn’t be surprised if Duda winds up with more HRs than Ike.

Haven’t seen enough of Wright yet but he does have one HR under his belt since he’s been back. I’m thinking 25 HRs might be a tad generous, but if healthy, it wouldn’t be out of the question.

I have to put Bay at less than 15. Hope I’m wrong but he just looks done.