Mets Over/Under’s: The Home Run Edition

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• srt April 1, 2012 at 9:19 am

  Hard to figure is right. Any guess is as good as the next.

  I’m a little worried about Ike. After missing a good chunk of last season, it doesn’t appear he’s got his timing down yet in ST. He might get off to a slow start. Therefore, I wouldn’t be surprised if Duda winds up with more HRs than Ike.

  Haven’t seen enough of Wright yet but he does have one HR under his belt since he’s been back. I’m thinking 25 HRs might be a tad generous, but if healthy, it wouldn’t be out of the question.

  I have to put Bay at less than 15. Hope I’m wrong but he just looks done.
• Angelo April 1, 2012 at 9:20 am

  I think Davis, Duda and Wright will each hit 30 homers and the Mets will get the 2nd Wild Card . Amen
  • jessep April 1, 2012 at 9:52 am

    Angelo, from your fingers to god’s ears… but the odds of all 3 of them hitting 30 is so slim
    • Angelo April 1, 2012 at 10:13 am

      yeah but its not THAT impossible right? believe , GO METS
• jessep April 1, 2012 at 9:55 am

  Ike Davis: 25
  Under (barely 24)

  Lucas Duda: 20
  Over (barely 22)

  David Wright: 25
  Over (barely 26)

  Daniel Murphy: 15
  Under (less than 12)

  Jason Bay: 15
  Over (18-20)

  Ruben Tejada: 5
  Under (2)

  Josh Thole: 3
  Over (4)

  Andres Torres: 10
  Under (7)
• Joey D. April 1, 2012 at 10:50 am

  Just give me a +3/-3 margin of error on this one, please.

  Wright: 32
  Davis: 27
  Duda 18
  Murphy: 14
  Bay: 11
  Torres: ?
  Thole: ?
  Tejada: ?

  Wright’s power is to all fields, especially right, so now Citi Field is conducive to his ability. Ike Davis was showing signs that opposing pitchers were unable to find any new weakness in his swing before the injury. Now it’s our turn to see how much pitchers have caught up with Lucas and how Duda can adjust to being pitched to differently. Murphy can hit some line drives into the seats with the walls lowered. Jason right now is one of the lost boys but if he can have just one or two games early where he feels good at the plate and likes the way the balls come off the bat (no box score statistics, just how he felt hitting the ball) then he could easily double his eleven.

  Have no idea how the bottom three will do.
• K Maxx April 1, 2012 at 11:42 am

  OK, I’ll play.

  Ike Davis: 25 – over 30

  Lucas Duda: 20 – over 27

  David Wright: 25 – over 29

  Daniel Murphy: 15 – under 11

  Jason Bay: 15 – under 9

  Ruben Tejada: 5 – under 2

  Josh Thole: 3 – over 6

  Andres Torres: 10 – under 6
• USMF April 1, 2012 at 11:43 am

  Ike Davis: 25- Over, I think he’ll reach 30

  Lucas Duda: 20-Over, unless he slumps had reach over 25 shouldn’t be hard

  David Wright: 25- Under, I fear his Ab is a walking time bomb and he’ll miss a lot of time

  Daniel Murphy: 15- Under, I think he’ll hit great this year, but not with too much power

  Jason Bay: 15-Under- ugh, I really hope and believe that +20 is a possibility, but until he actually starts hitting I can’t believe that Bay is back.

  Ruben Tejada: 5- Under, Tejada just doesn’t have the power and I fear that he’s going to struggle this season.

  Josh Thole: 3- Over, I think Thole has the ability to pull with some power and can get over 5HRs

  Andres Torres: 10-Under, I don’t see Torres getting enough AB’s to reach 10.
• Hitman April 1, 2012 at 12:20 pm

  Ike Davis: 25- Over. I said Ike would hit 33 last year before his injury. This year, I say 38 HRs for Ike this season.

  Lucas Duda: 20- Over. I loved the comparison a while ago by Sandy Alderson of Duda to Joey Votto. He (Duda) possesses that kind of power like Votto and there’s no doubt in my mind that like Votto, Duda’s a 30+ HR hitter, so if he plays a full season, I’m gonna say somewhere in the neighborhood of 30-35 HRs.

  David Wright: 25- Over. Big season coming for Mr. Wright, especially since this is a contract year. He’ll have his first 30 HR season for the first time in 4 seasons. Starting hot out the gate would not surprise me. I just don’t see him hitting all his HRs as a Met, as there’s a big chance he’s dealt, no matter how the Mets play.

  Daniel Murphy: 15- Even. 15 sounds just about right for Murphy.

  Jason Bay: 15- Under (for now). I want to say over and say at least 20, but his ST performance has greatly disappointed me from his late performance last season. Right now, I say maybe 10 for Bay. Fair enough?

  Ruben Tejada: 5- Under. Although Tejada has gotten bigger, power has not and most likely never will be Tejada’s game. Being a patient, contact hitter is good for me. 3, maybe 4 HRs is what I see out of Tejada.

  Josh Thole: 3- Under. If this was last season, I would’ve said over, but Thole is what he is. 2 HRs for Thole.

  Andres Torres: 10- Under. 6 HRs is the most I see from Torres…and that’s just me being kind.
  • jessep April 1, 2012 at 1:50 pm

    38? wow… In the last 2 years only Pujols, Prince, Dunn, Kemp hit 38+ in the NL. That is a mighty high projection for Ike Davis…
• any April 1, 2012 at 1:15 pm

  Duda. Way over 20.
• Bayonne Mets Fan April 1, 2012 at 1:23 pm

  Ike Davis over – 36
  Lucas Duda over – 28
  David Wright over – 27
  Daniel Murphy under – 14
  Jason Bay over – 21
  Ruben Tejada under – 4
  Josh Thole over – 6
  Anders Torres under – 8
• Fonzie13 April 1, 2012 at 2:23 pm

  Ike Davis over – 28
  Lucas Duda over – 26
  David Wrong push- 25
  Daniel Murphy over-17
  Jay Bay over – 18
  Ruben Tejada push – 5
  Josh Thole push – 6
  Andres Torres over-13

  I have a felling USMF will be on point with Wright having issues all season from the ab tear.
• Joey D. April 1, 2012 at 2:32 pm

  Seems like all of us are resigned to Jason Bay not having as much pop in his bat as we hoped for when Citi Field’s new dimensions were first announced.

  But looks like I’m the one so far with the least expectation – eleven – whereas the consensus seems to be around 15. In case anyone is counting, that means I expect him to hit one less home run every forty games than the rest of this group – which means there is really less difference in our predictions performance wise, but I hate to think of how vast the difference will appears in terms of advanced statistical analysis, not to mention what went into determining that equation.