Apr
4
2012

Mets Over/Under’s: Starting Rotation Win Totals

An article by Dan Valis

The Mets starting rotation has been virtually the same group over the past few seasons. Most of these starters have seen their win totals fluctuate wildly over that time. Some have had drastic drops or increases in performance and that makes it difficult to predict what you can realistically expect from them each season.

Below are some Over/Under’s on the win totals for the Mets 2012 starting rotation.

Mike Pelfrey: 11.5

Jon Niese: 10.5

Johan Santana:12.5

Dillon Gee: 11.5

R.A. Dickey: 14.5

To me it’s really hard to project which one of these guys might step up this season. Every time we think we see one of the guys from this group ready to emerge, they fall back. I don’t know if I can see any of these guys breaking the 15 win mark this season, but in baseball you never know.

Take a few minutes to make your picks for the upcoming season and let’s get the debates and discussions started.

About the Author: Dan Valis

I am a staff writer for Mets Merized Online. I am a Mets team analyst with a focus on the minor league system, as well as the major league club. I am a lifelong New Yorker who was born and raised to be a Mets fan. The ups and downs of being a Mets fan is what makes following this team so much fun, but at times so frustrating. You can follow me on Twitter @BgAppleMetsTalk.

21 Comments + Add Comment

jessep April 4, 2012 at 10:15 am

Mike Pelfrey: 11.5
Under

Jon Niese: 10.5
Over

Johan Santana:12.5
Under

Dillon Gee: 11.5
Under

R.A. Dickey: 14.5
Under
- Alex68 April 4, 2012 at 11:06 am
  
  Sounds like the SP will not win more than 55 games… COMBINED… That spells a losing season from all angles
  - jessep April 4, 2012 at 11:08 am
    
    Since I did predict a 73-78 win year, you would be correct. You’re also forgetting about other SPs getting W through injury and bullpen arms getting W’s as well.
  - Alex68 April 4, 2012 at 11:11 am
    
    Ahhh, Got you.. I predict a 69 win season, but to be honest, i hope i am wrong as hell because i wan Gee, Dickey, Niese and Santana to be OVER and pelfrey at 11
USMF April 4, 2012 at 10:16 am

I really want to say over with all these guys…each pitcher has shown the ability to win 15 games but…

Santana is still an unkown

RAD is still a knuckleball pitcher and never gets run support

Niese and Gee haven’t pitched a full MLB season

I’m still not sold on Pelf

Other that RAD, none of these pitchers can go deep into games and that hurts their chances of winning a lot of games.

I’m not sold on the pen being able to hold leads and the D is very week outside of Ike

I’m not sold on the run production. Ike, Tejada and Duda have not produced in a full MLB season, Bay and Torres have not shown that they can rebound to previous production levels and Wright’s Ab and Torres’s legs seem to be ticking time bombs waiting to go off.

Plus, the rival staffs in the NL east are very strong and can outmatch our lineup.

I think that the starters will reach a total of 45 wins..I’m just not sure who will contribute to the win total
Angelo April 4, 2012 at 10:58 am

Gee ,Santana and Dickey with over 15W each . Niese and Pelfrey with 10+ wins . GO METS!!!
- Lifelongmetsfan April 4, 2012 at 11:08 am
  
  Angelo? your saying that the Mets will have three starting pitchers with 15 or more wins?
  - Angelo April 4, 2012 at 12:00 pm
    
    IF Santana gets nearly his old pitch , hes in for 15 . Gee looks AWESOME so far and did that already last year . He is a NO BRAINER in my opinion to reach 15 W . And Dickey? Yes he can too.
    
    At least i have to say that the batter have to hit …otherwise the best pitching didnt end up in wins … GO METS
Lifelongmetsfan April 4, 2012 at 11:07 am

RA Dickey 14.5 over or under?… ugh…. UNDER! Oh Good Lord I know Dickey is a good guy, great book and you want to root for the man but come on.. God I wish Vegas was this easy…
Tell you what the day Dickey gets 15 wins is the day I believe that Obama has REAL grey hair.
stick April 4, 2012 at 11:37 am

Definitely looking at the over for Neise.
Clayton Collier April 4, 2012 at 12:16 pm

Mike Pelfrey: 11.5- Under (10)

Jon Niese: 10.5-Over (13)

Johan Santana:12.5-Over (14)

Dillon Gee: 11.5-Over (12)

R.A. Dickey: 14.5-Under (14)
trs86 April 4, 2012 at 12:27 pm

It’s so hard to predict wins at this point.

Pelfrey, Under 10
Niese Over 13
Johan Over 13
Gee under 10
Dickey under.14
Matt April 4, 2012 at 12:37 pm

Mike Pelfrey: 11.5…Under. (11)

Jon Niese: 10.5…over (12)

Johan Santana:12.5…over (14)

Dillon Gee: 11.5…under (9)

R.A. Dickey: 14.5…under (13)

This, of course, is assuming they all pitch a full season. It’s hard to predict Dickey to have over 14.5 wins since his career high is 11 and he had a terrific statistical season last year and had 8 wins in 32 starts. As for everyone else…I was being generous, especially with Niese.
Mitch April 4, 2012 at 1:13 pm

My goodness this team is awful.
- Angelo April 4, 2012 at 1:21 pm
  
  you should root for the yankees, cant hear it anymore, the 2012 New York Mets are a solid team !!! Not more and not less
  - Mitch April 4, 2012 at 1:27 pm
    
    Sorry to awaken you, and all the other fans setting themselves up for disappointment…but this team isn’t solid. This team will struggle to finish .500 this year. I don’t classify that as solid.
- Alex68 April 4, 2012 at 1:29 pm
  
  Mitch, we all see your POV, i am optimistic but i see this team as a 69 win team.. Yet, there’s always that little hope as a fan in you to be wrong and hope that the team SURPRISE everyone despite having a Front office that does not care about the team, fans or winning ball games..
  - Mitch April 4, 2012 at 1:33 pm
    
    I’m trying to stay optimistic…but I woke up today and looked at that lineup and felt like the fans in Major League when they saw the Indians roster!
    - Angelo April 4, 2012 at 1:41 pm
      
      really? this roster is definetly ok and it would not be a eight world wonder when they grab 85-88 games . And with the second wild card this could probably be enough. In any other division except the AL East this mets would have a shoot at winning the division
Mitch April 4, 2012 at 1:47 pm

AL West – no shot either. I hope you’re right…I just don’t see it.
- trs86 April 4, 2012 at 2:08 pm
  
  I couldn’t see them winning any AL division but perhaps being competitive in the NL Central and West. West honestly they could win the division.

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