20
2012
Looking At The Numbers For The Mets, Wright And Others
An article by 
We’re two weeks into the young season and I’d like to share some of my first impressions and hear yours. The Mets, despite losing three of their last four games, are among the early surprises, as are several of their players.
They are playing better than anticipated and on pace to win 93 games. I don’t believe they will sustain that, but who wouldn’t take .500 if it were guaranteed? I would because it is the next step in the franchise’s development.
Ever since I was a kid I loved the early season numbers and projections. It was fun to think of all those players breaking Roger Maris’ 61 homers, but knew nobody would come close. When it finally happened and I learned why, it wasn’t fun anymore.
For example, David Wright’s .500 average leads the majors and is one of six players hitting over .400 and 28 over .340. There won’t be a .400 hitter – and maybe never will again – and I’d be willing to bet there won’t be anybody over .340.
Both Ike Davis and Lucas Duda are on track to hit 41 homers and drive in 81 and 68 runs, respectively. They have the strength to hit that many homers, but I don’t think either has the plate presence or pitcher knowledge to do so. At least not this year. Their RBI totals are reasonable.
Wright won’t hit .500 or get the 230 hits projected of him, but I’d take the 28 homers and 108 RBI. The latter two should be worthy of a contract extension.
The Mets would gladly take those numbers from Wright, as they would Frank Francisco’s projected 41 saves.
Pitching wise, the Mets’ 3.69 ERA is sixth in the National League, which is a substantial improvement from last year. Also, their 43 walks allowed are 11th in the league, but ten of those came in one game. That needs to get better. They are second in the league with 101 strikeouts, an average of over eight a game that translates into working out of a lot of trouble.
In addition to the Mets, the surprise teams on the positive are Washington, the Dodgers, St. Louis and Baltimore. The Cardinals, minus Albert Pujols, Tony La Russa and Chris Carpenter, just keep rolling.
I thought the Nationals would be better, but not this good. They won’t keep playing at this rate, but their pitching is good enough to keep them contending. Their ERA of 1.92 is first; they are tied for seventh in fewest walks and first in strikeouts.
On the negative, the Phillies will climb in the standings, as will the Angels, Boston and the Yankees.
Individually, four players are on pace to hit over 60 homers, which isn’t supposed to happen in the new steroid-free era. One of those players is Carlos Beltran, who hasn’t made the Cardinals forget Pujols, but has softened the blow.
Speaking of Pujols, he hasn’t homered and is on pace for 54 RBI. He’s also on track for 81 strikeouts, which would be the second highest of his career. His 41 walks would be the lowest of his career.
I don’t believe the Cardinals will regret losing Pujols in the long term. Pujols is a future Hall of Famer and will eventually adjust to the American League and before it is over post impressive numbers. The Cardinals can live with that because even if Pujols plays another ten years, they would have gotten the best years of his career.
The most fun stats to project are the individual player numbers. The Dodgers’ Matt Kemp is on pace to hit .460 with a .500 on-base percentage, 287 hits, 87 homers and 224 RBI.
Incidentally, on the flip side, Jose Reyes is on track to play in 162 games (yeah, as if that will happen), hit .226 with a .276 on-base percentage, with 37 steals, 50 walks and 100 strikeouts.
Neither Kemp’s nor Reyes’ numbers will reach fruition, but on an off day it is fun to tinker with the numbers.
About the Author: John Delcos
I am an active member of the BBWAA and have covered Major League Baseball in several capacities for over 20 years, including ten in New York working the Mets' and Yankees' beat. I covered the Baltimore Orioles for eight years and the Cleveland Indians before that. I currently serve as an editor and senior staff writer for Mets Merized Online. Follow me on Twitter @jdelcos.
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I’ll give you 25 guys that wouldn’t sign for .500. They’re all going to be at Citi Field tonight in the dugout.
The last season a player didn’t have over a .340 BA was in 2005 when Derrek Lee led with .335.
68 RBIs for Duda, even with a lot of HRs?
the guy had 50 in 1/2 a season last year. Just having a slow start.
That’s just what he is on pace for. I guess all of his HR have been solo’s LOL.
I was just responding to his comment that 68 RBIs seemed reasonable for Duda. Ah, no.
I think he just means that they are at least in the realm of possibility where as the other numbers are a stretch to the highest extent.
Davis has a .138 BABIP. Duda .207.
It is really hard to buy into projections this early and with such a small sample.
The Pitchers who looked so good the first week faced a struggling and Jonesless Braves and a Banged up Howard and Utleyless Phillies!
The lost the series to the Nats who are not supposed to be as good an offense as the other two but are at least healthy and have as much pitching as anyone!
We got the braves and Phillies at a good time….
The Braves started on the road and then when they got home have gotten themseves sorted and went on a 5 game winning streak.
The Phillies are struggling without two big bats in their lineup!
We currently have a 1/2 game lead for the second wildcard spot.
If the season ended today the playoff teams would be:
Washington
Dodgers
StL
Atl
and Us….
Both Florida or Arizona can knock us out of that if we lose today!
Right now the only difference from last year I see so far is we have not put ourselves into the hole we did last year when we went 5-13.
The starting Pitching is still a question mark Our two best hopes got rocked.
Our Hitting has been anemic with RISP and despite being 7th in OBP we are in the 20′s in RS (so much for OBP driving RS eh?)
It’s a long season and it was a very good start but other than the Nats we have not really faced a team that is playing well until we went to Atl who started after the initial losses to us. And they just took two from us!
I know with all the arguing about which direction this team was going in the offseason some have a real jones on for giving a fast I told you so…
But I think maybe we should wait till July or August to see where this team is because last year we gave up 7.5 games out of the playoffs and if we find ourselves in that position again the debate we started this offseason will have really just begun!
Hey John did you see where Rubin posted that the Mets 7-3 start has occurred in 7 prior occasions and each time they finished at least 10 games above .500? Talk about putting a streak to the test.
MNJ, if the 2012 sandy alderson’s mets finish 10 games above 500 i will change my screen name to Alex68 Really <3's Sabermetrics…
A simple “Nice job Mets” would do. No need to name yourself something you don’t believe in.
Can we at least make him buy one of those famous Sandy blow-up dolls I keep hearing about?
What for? Can you imagine the indignities the blow-up doll would suffer?
Does the package include one for Buddy as well?