2
2012
Bay Losing His Grip On Starting Job
An article by 72MetsFan
Here is a followup to a post I wrote last week on Jason Bay AKA The 500 Pound Gorilla In The Corner Outfield. Mike Puma of the NY Post writes this morning:
A club official yesterday floated the possibility that if Bay is struggling six or seven weeks into the season, the Mets could explore other options, including a platoon in left.
Bay is hitting .195 with no RBIs this spring after going 0-for-3 in the Mets’ 9-2 exhibition loss to the Tigers yesterday.
If the Mets were to consider a platoon, Puma writes, it could bode well for lefty-swinging Kirk Nieuwenhuis, who is slated to begin the season at Triple-A Buffalo.
I wish we had a right-handed option we could take a look at too in addition to Nieuwenhuis, but I guess in a platoon it won’t really matter. I’m just concerned with all the other lefty bats in the lineup with Duda, Murphy, Davis and Thole.
Original Post 3/30
For some odd reason, after Terry Collins said he’d be playing his regulars through the last few games of Grapefruit League action, Jason Bay was not penciled into left field today, Vinny Rottino was. The Mets lost 4-3 incidentally, and are 7-17 in Grapefruit action.
So where was Jason Bay? Is he already so weary that he needed a rest? He’s only played in 15 of 24 games so far this spring, and he’s tallied a grand total of 35 at-bats in those games.
He’s also batting .229 with as many home runs and RBIs as my next door neighbor Sam Volpe. Sam is 69 years old, has a great vegetable garden, and as you may have guessed, he has no home runs or RBI’s this spring.
Andrew Keh of the NY Times referred to Bay as “a lost soul, a man untethered from his true self.” That’s one way of looking at it I guess, or you could simply describe Bay as a lost cause, a player who will never live up to that contract he bamboozled out of the Mets.
Are you tired of all the sob stories? All the feel good stories? All the he’s such a nice guy stories? All the never-ending supply of excuses? I know I am.
“I honestly don’t know what my average is, but I know I don’t have a home run, I know I don’t have an R.B.I., I know all that”.
Give him props for knowing where he stands. After more than halfway into his 4-year deal, Bay is still trying to figure things out.
“I’m not standing here telling you results don’t matter. But we’ve got a timetable to try to figure things out. That’s what this time is for, and I feel like now I have a pretty good grasp going forward.”
I have a pretty good grasp going forward too and it includes playing Bay less and less and ensuring he doesn’t get anywhere close to 500 plate appearances this season. That’s the magic number that could kick in a $18 million dollar vesting option for our Canadian cousin.
If I’m the Mets – it’s open tryouts in left field all season long in 2012.
Sorry, Jason, you’re not our left fielder anymore. You are in fact our albatross.
About the Author: Drew Staley
On June 1, 2012 Johan Santana officially became my favorite current Met! I'm a Queens native who grew up in the shadows of Big Shea. I was a huge Ron Darling, Dave Magadan and John Olerud fan. Honored to be a part of such a great site for Mets fans. Ya Gotta Believe!
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NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 42 | 28 | .600 | - |
| Nationals | 34 | 35 | .493 | 7.5 |
| Phillies | 34 | 37 | .479 | 8.5 |
| Mets | 25 | 40 | .385 | 14.5 |
| Marlins | 22 | 47 | .319 | 19.5 |
Last updated: 06/18/2013
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ya no chance he gets to 500 ab’s, another $16million avail 2013
2014. they are stuck with 2013 regardless.
I’m not holding out much hope for getting decent production from Bay. It’s been two years now.
That being said, Bay didn’t fleece the Mets. Omar offered him that contract, Bay accepted. Do you honestly see any ML player turning it down, saying ‘no, thanks…I’m not worth it’?
Every GM has a couple a bad contracts they gave out. Truthfully, whether he ‘deserved’ that contract or not, I don’t think anyone could have predicted the loss in production that drastic from day one of the contract.
And the question going forward is what do they do to get out from under this one?
Probably benched mid season if there is anyone ready to come up and then cut in ST this time next year.
Yeah this should be our last year having to watch that stiff.
Aren’t we just putting too much weight on Spring training? Last year, He tried a new approach. He closed his stance and was trying to get the ball in the air way too much. Why is everyone so quick to jump on him? Relax and wait. He is probably still getting comfortable. Lets just wait till the Regular Season before we banish him.
I’m really upset I though this would finally be his breakout year,can we get a refund on his contract.Maybe a buyout out of sympathy for sucking so bad.
There is no way to ignore this, especially knowing what hasn’t happened the last two years, but it is Spring Training.
Are we concerned as much, that Ike Davis, who barely played at all last year, what would only be his 2nd year, is hitting only .200?
If Jason Bay and his 4105 career ABs, 200+ HRs, and career .274 BA still needs time to “try to figure things out,” then I say either trade him for whatever low level prospect he would bring back in return or just dump him ala Castillo/Ollie. This team is going nowhere in 2012 (and probably 2013), no point in having this bum be a distraction or any type of negative focal point at all.
I agree with Kay, but I understand the cause for concern. At the end of the day, this is Spring Training and the time when Bay is supposed to work things out. Plenty of hitters have bad spring’s…. In 2009 Bay hit .244
2008 .231
2007 .256
In 2010, Bay hit .340 in Spring for the Mets and 2011 he hit .333
So which trend would you prefer?
I was counting on Jason to have a comeback season with Citi Field being more fair a ball park to hit in but was also worried if the two years playing in instead of close to LaGuardia Airport messed him up too much to get back to his old self.
Spring training isn’t about one’s stats so I’m not concerned about that, but what spring training is about is how one feels at the plate. And that’s the issue – Jason seeming lost, down and without confidence. Maybe as fans we are reading into something that doesn’t exist and perhaps it’s being built up more by the New York press – but my optimism right now is being curbed a bit.
When Ralph Kiner tells me that Jason seems more relaxed at the plate, then I won’t worry.
I say they get a Volpe jersey ready cause it probably wouldn’t hurt to put him there!
Give him six weeks at least to see if he’s doing things differently and being productive. If he looks just like a continuation of 2011 after six weeks of 2012, then all’s clear.
You have to be almost willfully blind to not see how many expensive free agents do not do anything with their new team. It’s almost 50% that give you what a non tender could give you for 500 G’s.
Whether it’s psychological or the game has once again reverted way back to being a young mans game even more so than it ever has with the elimination (?) of steroids AND greenies the facts are that type A FA’s have flat out busted 50% of the time.
The trend now is locking up your pieces through arbitration and a year or two of FA. Even non key pieces like guys who will probably be back up catchers are getting 4-7 year deals for short but guaranteed money to ensure that that piece will be there because the FA market is going to become even more just the dregs with the even rarer sighting of a Texeiera or Cliff lee who absolutely refuse to not test the market.
SD, KC, TB and smaller market teams are leading the way and they already have the farm systems to get them into solid contention and have now found an inexpensive way to keep their team solid, youthful, affordable and well conceived. In other words their being proactive, not just perusing the different piles of crap available every off season like we have for the last 20 years.
The days of building a softball team of other teams former All Stars is over. It’s never worked here and it never had a chance to. Not unless you could buy 9 15+ M dollar players in the same year.
Giving away or selling half of our best draft choices and busting on the other half with only rare exceptions is what has kept us dependent on the donkey train long after everyone else realized it was useful only in small doses.
Laugh and root against Wheeler, Nimmo. Evans, Muno, Fillmer, Verett, Leathersich, Mazzoni, Montgomery, Marquez, and Tuschuk all you want but if we had been nabbing guys like this the last 5-10-15 years things would be looking a lot different than they do know,
Ah well at least we have Bay for another year.
Hi T,
While I think Bay has been trying 100 percent, you are right about him and free agency in general.
Yes, the salaries are ridiculous and with many we see the old Ken Hotlzman attitude (which came back to haunt him, incidentally) about not caring if he plays or not as long as the pay checks come in every week. I think the villain in this (and there are so many including fans who are willing to shell out broadway priced tickets to see a baseball game) is the long-term contract. There is something about having a guaranteed contract locked in for many years that seems to take the incentive out of many.
Tom Seaver, when doing the Met broadcasts back in the mid nineties, said it was a shame that the players, now not having to worry about financial security, could concentrate entirely on the game and don’t seem to. He brought up a conversation with Larry Bowa about players no longer staying in the locker room after (I think) a loss to go over what went wrong. They just shower and leave. I believe the point The franchise was trying to make was that players don’t seem to feel as bad about losses like they did when he was playing (I’m going by memory here but that’s the feeling that has remained with me from that commentary).
When the reserve clause was overturned I read where one of the offers made by the Player’s Union was to have single-year contracts only with everyone becoming a free agent at the end of each season. This was rejected by the owners. I can understand why for multi-year contracts assures some sort of roster stability – at least in theory. Yet at the same time,some teams could be subject to a mass exodus each year as we saw in Oakland back in 1976 when those eligible for free agency either jumped ship or was traded off before walking the plank. At the same time, players don’t enjoy bouncing around from city to city either and want stability in their own personal lives and might actually want to stay with the club.
In this case, I think Sandy Alderson would have pushed hard for the adoption of single or (at most) dual year contracts simply so teams would not have to be forced into keeping and having to pay those who don’t perform well for half a decade or so.
But the big advantage of the single year contract would be that they would have to produce in order to retain that type of salary next year – just like it was with the reserve clause. The only difference is that they would have an equal advantage with owners, not none at all. The knowledge of uncertainty also causes one to rise to the top whereas security can also cause complacency.
Ah, what could have been….
Hi Joey,
I agree with Bay trying although he seems to have gone into shell mode now. Castillo played 100% too and I’m sure most guys do as well but they always have lifetime security to fall back on if things “don’t work out.”
One thing I believe everyone can agree about is that the Mets showed a lot of resilience and fight last year. More than we’ve seen in the past few years that’s for sure wouldn’t you agree?
Certainly Collins assisted that effort but the biggest thing in my opinion was clearing out some of the dead a**es and replacing them with guys fighting to have a career.
Do you have any idea the drag in the clubhouse Perez was in 2010 after he refused to go down to the minors and give up his roster spot to help the Team? How no one on the team talked to him in the lockeroom when he came back? How the Mets played pretty good ball when he was put on the DL and caved in when he came back?
Now that’s just one youngish underperformer on a 3 year deal. Imagine what’s it’s like with a whole clubhouse full of older underperforming guys on longer “scholarships.”
Like Parcells said “if you put a young next to the an old dog the old dog starts running around like he’s young again.”
We’ve had way too many old dogs around here (with guaranteed security) for way too long and not enough younger pups with fight in them.
As a Mets fan I am totally out of words and any coherent thought about Jason Bay and Mike Pelfrey. My brain just gets exhausted when I see their names. Thank God for Jack Daniels.
Jason K.the only question is will he surpass Ollie as the worst Met free agent signing in history.I would not bet against him.
Gary,
Considering all the terrible free agent signings done by the Mets, that’s about the worst anyone could ever say about poor Jason. Sad, but true. The only difference is that Jason would be rooting the team on instead of playing cards in the clubhouse during a playoff game and would not throw firecrackers at fans.
Joe
Well if he opens the season 3-4 and a couple of RBIs this spring training talk will all be forgotten. “Lou, wake up, wake up. you must of been dreaming.”
Maybe they are trying to light a fire under him also, like Pelfrey?
Jason Bay sucks.. but he hustles and is a good guy.. Good clubhouse guy also… SMH…
Hustles and good clubhouse guy applies to guys like Alex Cora at best. Once you get paid what Bay does that stuff is expected as is performance.
Thing is, he was getting at pass for who he is as a person, or at least perceive to be… Anyhow, No sense in talking about him, he sucks and is a bum… Hope Mets get rid of him… Somehow i doubt this bum does anything to help the team this year or the next..
LOL, there’s the bum comment again but for some reason I am not as angry.
Yes the Mets will be in full get rid of him mode. I still think exploring a deal for a guy like Zito or another guy with a bad contract would be an option even now.
As for him getting a pass, I am not sure what blogs you read other than this one but I have seen no real pass. Other than the fact that we take for granted it was a horrible signing, he has played horrible and most likely will not improve. Not much more you can say than that. The fact that he might be the WORST FA signing in Mets history? Doesn’t that say enough?
Lol, by now you should know me, and trust me TRS, this guy was getting major pass in 2010.. I believe that had he come trough our season wouldn’t had been as bad as it was.. then last year was the same thing.. I can look up some articles written about him that were just mind boggling, But yes, i do agree. this guy have been the worst FA acquisition in met history.. As a pitcher Perez, as an offensive everyday player, it’s gotta be Bay… I mean, even bonilla hit some HR’s at least.. jeez…
I think Bonillia might still get #1 because he was NOT known as a good clubhouse guy.
I still don’t see Bay getting that much of a pass though. I think the only reason you feel that way is that we have just accepted he stinks and we don’t have a replacement.
I think Bay is getting a pass more so because the Mets are much more irrelevant than they were when other guys came in and under performed and the fact that it’s almost common place now that the big signing doesn’t work out and not just here, it’s practically an epidemic.
maybe some pass in 2010, but that is normal for a big name signing. Partly because you don’t realize how bad the guy is for a while. Plus he had the concussion at the end?
But no way he was getting any kind of pass last year.
Still, attitude/hustle/defense does make a difference. If I guy really seems to be busting his hump trying, and honestly seems concerned about earning his salary, he will get more leeway than a guy that comes in all full of himself, dogging around the OF, etc. But that only carries you so far.
and as of now, unless there is a miracle turnaround, I would put bay as the worst FA signing for a position player (based on length/total $/overall team situation).
still, seems like a nice guy, and does bust his butt out there. heck, put him leadoff and tell him to become a slap hitter/look for a walk guy and he would probably give it his best without complaining!
That’s why I have been talking him up batting 2nd. Maybe if he just focused on making contact in the 2 hole he would at least not be a detriment to the lineup.
Torres/Tejada, Bay, Duda, Davis, Wright? I am sure Alex likes that one.
with the murph man 6th?
But you know I got no problem with Duda in the 3 hole!
Bay 2nd? He does still run OK. Could work.
Heck, I said for a while that in a perfect world Wright would be hitting 2nd.
Yeah, Murphy batting 6th would really extend the lineup and provide protection for Wright while splitting up the 3 LH bats. Again that would depend on Duda hitting LHP. But if you have Bay, Duda, Davis, Wright to lead off an inning the manager would have to think twice about starting with the LOOGY or leaving in the LOOGY to face Wright.
Well, then you had better hope that Davis can start hitting LH pitching otherwise they may have to split up the two LH. If you put Murphy 2nd and Davis and Duda before Wright then you have got some issues.
Phillies had Utley, howard AND ibanez hitting one after the other… Wasn’t a problem for them…
I think people were more forgiving of Bay in 2010 because he did suffer that concussion and Beltran also was off is first season here. And being a reportedly decent guy who was working hard bought him some time as well.
But, I haven’t seen anyone trying to defend his play from last year. Explain it, maybe. but, I haven’t seen anyone actually forgive his lousy performance since arriving here. In fact, I see people going back and using his underwhelming 2010 to support the idea that he’s a bust.
In 2010 during his 1st few months it was said Bay is a streaky hitter but just wait when he gets hot he goes on a tear. Of course by the ASB patience was wearing thin on this hot streak. Then he had a concussion that basically ended his season. Though some would argue this actually spared him further wrath from fans in 2010.
Then last year it was well many players often struggle their 1st year in New York and he should have a more Bay like year in 2011. We know how that ended.
The guy is averaging a little more than 100 games 9 homers and 50 plus rbi’s a season in 2 years as a Met. This guy is about to or has reached Ollie P status depending on who you ask.
If he ever had a Mulligan he used that up back in 2010.
Castillo played hard and hurt and did whatever he could but it simply wasn’t anywhere enough as well. Both were brought in here and kept around for the same reason, we didn’t have anyone who could play 2B or LF. That work has to be done 3-5 beforehand, If you wait till the off season every year to address every defficiency on the roster, this what you wind up with.
These signings then get justified by some fans as “who could have known _______ would fall off the cliff as soon as we got him?” We should know better than anyone, just look at how many guys in the last 20 years had to get s**tcanned out of here and even worse, stayed on the field and cost us games until they were.
The other popular defense of yet another bad free agent signing is “who else were we going to get to play _________?” That notion completely ignores the reason we had the need in the first place. No one coming up or no one to trade for a better choice and failing that no creative solutions like a non tender, platoon or even a book mark for a year until a better choice could be obtained.
Just the easiest solution every year. Fork over another early round draft choice preventing us from providing a solution somewhere else later, hamstring the payroll, clog up the roster and hope it works out.
Some plan.
But lets not swing the pendulum too far in the other way. Not all big FA signings are bad and you can’t expect your farm to produce a player for every position. The problem is that LF was not the area they should have been spending that big contract on, the last contract in fact. If you look at the salary there was no more room left. Whatever FA signing we made that off-season regardless of Omar or not Omar put us at our salary maximum so when you do that you had better be sure he is the final piece.
especially for an organization that had a whole slew of bat but no glove guys that were being labelled as 1B/LF/DH types. Seems that LF would be the last place to go for a vet that is exiting his prime years already.
Not that Lackey would have worked out better, but at least logically it made sense.
Good point TRS but I would prefer to sign starting pitching if the right guy is available.
Spending a #1 pick on a CC, Halliday or Lee is the way to go, spending a #1 and two #2′s on LF in 8 years is ridiculous.
Leaving yourself constricted to just those who become free agents every year excludes a whole pool of better choices and this is where the farm comes in. The NYY got Swisher, Granderson, A-Rod, and Pineda because of their farm. Those choices worked out a lot better because the pool of available choices was much larger.
Now those choices were the ability of the NYY to take on salary but that is exactly what a big market team should do to maximize their advantages but it also came down to having Soriano, Marquez, Austin Jackson and Montero to trade and while A-Rod was making a fortune, Pineda was making nothing and Swisher averaged 10 M a year and Granderson 7.
That allows you to spend elsewhere in addition to getting much better play from guys still looking to score the big deal as opposed to getting the guy who just got his last one.
I also said that Omar’s fate would be attached to the development of Milledge and Fmart as he held on to those two. It is a bit of hindsight to think that NEITHER of those guys would work out. Their lack of development basically forced the Bay signing.
Fern to me was always going to be a RFer but had he developed would have supported a weaker offensive LFer. Milledge could have been the guy in LF but was traded to buy time for Fern and Pena to get close. No complaints, it was a worthwhile attempt but it really illustrates the problem in pinning all of your hopes on just one guy for every position down the road and consequently spending so much of the future to address short term needs.
By this time we certainly could have hoped to have Pena, Ike, Havens, Reyes, Wright, Ratliff, Kirk, and Fern as well as Santana, Pelfrey, Niese, Holt, Vineyard with Kunz, Rustich, Niessen, Parnell , Mejia and Acosta in the pen and Duda, Murphy, Satin, Pagan on the bench but that would have required all of them to work out.
Had they we easily have enough to resign Reyes but not every prospect does work out.
That’s why you need more of them, not less especially if you want to make trades to upgrade what you’ve developed.
Thats fine if Fern ends up in LF but that still takes the need for Bay away. Milledge and Fern’s flopping caused Bay. Well that and the Mets having a dollar to spare and feeling the need to spend it.
I have always said that you can’t force the market, and that you have to adjust to it. Forcing the issue (paying for the “best” big name guy) when a worthwhile player isn’t available is what gets you in this mess.
So, if you don’t have anyone to promote, and there is no viable big-time FA available that you can get for a manageable contract, go elsewhere. Pick up value elsewhere, and look to trade an excess maybe. or grab a foundation piece when one falls into your lap.
in the case of say LF, instead of reaching for bay like that, why not pick up a couple of big split guys to platoon for a year? or a veteran on a more modest 1-2 year deal to tide you over.
Yeah Bay was signed because we had no one else. Same as every free agent we’ve signed.
He wasn’t a good fit for the park or lineup and I didn’t think fro a defensive standpoint but I was wrong about that but from a HR standpoint the pressure to live up to a big deal in a home field like Citi was not well thought out.
Even moving the fences in, while a help is going to hurt our staff at least as much.
The move was made in equal parts to save jobs, try to get something out of all the short term moves of the prior 5 years and to pump up hope of Met Fans on the fence about renewing or buying tickets.
Not a well though out move for pure baseball reasons.
this guy is the definition of lost. I did not want him signed at the time (I was hoping for a ST solution of a couple of veterans to share the job), but again, I never expected this drastic of a tank.
I think I was on the fence with this signing and still defending Omar to an extent. I thought it was better than paying for Holliday, did not want Lackey but realized Omar was going to spend the money in his pocket on a big ticket item regardless. I swear there were sometimes the Mets were like my 6 year old daughter with a dollar in her pocket going into the Dollar Tree. “Honey you really don’t need another piece of junk, save your money and get something you might actually play with later”.
I didn’t have much of a problem with the Bay signing either. Was tired of never having a real LF in some years. Was an overpay to be sure but still could see the justification.
Didn’t expect him to hit any 40 HRs as he had in Boston but no way did I think his offense would fall totally off the cliff. Not sure anyone could have predicted that.
I don’t see how a RH HR hitter could have been a good choice in a park that swallows up HR’s hit to LF and LC. Just doesn’t make any sense.
You really have to hold open the idea that there just might not be the right guy on the market every year and instead of forcing it and hoping, be creative. Work toward the guys who’s skills will play well at home even if it’s just a platoon or a non tender or a book mark.
It’s time to start getting the sweet spot of players careers and with steroids and greenies no longer an option (as far as we know) that means 24-31, not 31-35 and it’s also time to start matching players to the park and lineup and stop waiting every year for the great savior cause all we usually wind up with is the great pumpkin.
No argument from me T Agee on any of your points.
Question that needs to be asked here…
Which FA was available this year you WOULD say was a GOOD candidate for signing?
Yes going for a HR hitter in a cavernous park is the wrong play but guess what…Going for a HR hitter in ANY park fails unless he has an average that makes it worth it in the 450 ABs where he does NOT hit a HR!
Bautista, Kemp, Fielder and Pujols all hit around .300. Best guy (Bautista) only hit 43 Hrs in 513 AB. Does anyone here think Pujols got the contract he did because of those 37 Hrs or that .299 BA that says even when he doesn’t hit one out he does some damage with the bat!
This is one of the main reasons I say BA is more important than OBP, RBI, SLG and all these other “lets find something new to hang our hat on other than BA” Stats everyone seems to be so eager into adopting into use.
If you hit for average all the rest is pure GRAVY!
Hit for average OBP stays high
Hit for Average RBI will be commesurate with your opportinities multiplied by your BA.
Hit for Average and you will get on base more even when a pitcher attcks and pounds the zone and when he does that SLG will go up as well!
Hit for Average and you will hit a HR roughly 10% of the time (League Average) and even if you only hit one 5% of the time you still wind up with 25 HRs per 500AB!
Dave Kingman who I saw play a whole lot of games hit a ton of HRs but rarely did his bat or those HRs help us win many games!
Because when he didn’t hit a HR he was just as likely to hit into a GBDP or strikeout which made about 450 ABs totally useless to the team!
People have bitched about Wright’s loss of power but it should be noted I have never complained about his HR totals!
What I HAVE botched about was his concurrent drop in BA from a consistent .300+ hitter to last years awful .254!
I kniow everyone likes a HR but the truth is they are so rare they aren’t worth shooting for!
They don’t win as many games as people think they do and truth is the games they win are only won because of the BA that was around Wright that made pitchers pitch to him so he could get that fat pitch to hit over the fence!
If I was making a list of FA possibilities the first thing I do is remove every player who has a BA under .290! Then if I want to look for Power thats fine but even if I don’t get it I WILL get the hits even when I do not get the power!
Give me a whole lineup of really good defensive players who hit for average, get OB when they don’t, run like the wind, have loads of doubles, take the extra base and hit 15-20 HR’s.
Maybe not to the extreme of the 80′s Cards but along those lines.
If nothing else it will make your pitchers happy!
Bottomline here is if you hit for Average everything else is moot and irrelevant!
If you make an error on the field it may cost you a game but the average will win you way more games than the glove cost you…
You Hit for Average it doesn’t matter if you hit a HR or not because you will have enough hits to drive in the same amount of runs on a Daily basis, not just when you clear the fence!
You Hit for Average you don’t have to worry about getting on base because by BA alone you will have a decent enough OBP and that BA will inspire more pitchers to pitch around you giving you all the extra OB BA didn’t get you and people want!
This is why you can call all the traditionalists fuddy duddies and antiquated because they don’t get a hard on about OBP but the bottomline is if the ONLY focus you have is high BA your going to succeed and win a ton of games!
It may be traditional it may be OLD (which would seem to be the worst thing you can be on this damn site) but the truth is it WORKS and works better than all these newfangled philosophies people subscribe to as if it is some religious epiphany!
Get good hitters that hit for average and everything else you could want will happen as well!
Players who hit for average also tend to be better defensive players and better base runners and are less likely to be pitched around when they can do the most good.
If you combine that with the additional ability to get OB at a high clip like a Keith Hernandez for example then you have a real tough out in the heart of your line up and that’s the glue in your lineup.
Metsi,
On that point I have to take an opposite side of the fence opinion – so just don’t kill me on this.
Having high batting averages in the lineup assures little because you left out the equation of power, speed on the basepaths and clutch hitting. We’ve seen where the Mets and so many other teams leave too many runners in scoring position on base.
How often do we see a line score of something like 3 runs, 10 hits (plus a few walks for good measure) compared to 6 runs, 8 hits (plus those couple of walks too)? Extra base hits and clutch hitting can produce multiple runs on just a few hits. Whereas, one could get three straight singles due to a slow lead runner and leave the bases loaded, when, on the other hand, one could get a single and a home run and there we have two runs on two hits, instead of no runs on three hits.
There is also the old Dodger Maury Wills home run. Wills would get a walk, steal second, go to third on the throw going into the outfield and then score on a sacrifice.
I was also at a game in 1965 and can’t forget the headline in the next day’s paper: “CUBS THREE HIT ATTACKS SINKS METS 7-1″. The few cub hits came at the most opportune time after some walks and errors and if I recall at least two of them were home runs.
Joe
It assures a lot more than Power or speed does…
Speed is only at play when the ball is play, How does the ball get into play?
By Hitting it!
Sure you can steal a base maybe even two but it still takes that extra ball in play to get home!
As for clutch if you have a high BA then you have a one in three chance of doing something good in clutch situations.
Having a good OBP does, having Speed doesn’t, Most runners are left in scoring position because the guys after them didn’t get a hit!
The Law of averages says even if the guy immediatly after didn’t get a hit the guy after him will!
The most basic thing about offense is hitting, what hit it actually is does not matter as much as the hit itself.
The situation is irrelevant and only complimentary to what the batter does!
Even if he doesn’t drive in the run he is now a runner that can be driven in and advanced the guy who was on at least one base closer to scoring!
You see three run 10 hit linescores not because of anything other than one guy got a hit and the three guys after him did not!
But if those guys all hit .300 chances are very likely one of those three are going to get a hit to drive in that run!
And if their 2 outs in 3 ABs all happen in the same inning the law of averages say you will get those runs in another inning!
If everyone has a high BA then how many get left on is irrelevant because you will still be scoring those runs at some point.
You hit the nail on the head Joey. High batting avg assures nothing unless the OB% and Slug% is high. Mets led the league in batting avg in 2009. They were slightly above avg getting on base and well below avg Slugging. They finished 13th in Runs scored. I’ll take last years Beltran’s 290 over Murphy’s 320 every day of the week.
Yeah but to me that argument is as old as baseball itself. That would be like me saying I would prefer a Fred McGriff-type hitter (.280 30-40 HRs, 100 RBis or ) over a higher avg hitter like Tony Gwynn – and I would prefer that. Yes I would prefer a Beltran over a Murphy to back then.
But also don’t forget that the 2009 Mets had all their RBI guys hurt that year.
So to me it just comes down to the types of hitters you prefer, or the types of hitters these guys are in these types of arguments. But the difference is now the players become lost in these types of debates these days because the debates are so statistically driven people forget what it’s really about.
And that goes back to what i say about sabermetrics. 1) To me it’s the “scientific study” of marginal baseball players because you don’t need saber to scout what you think are studs. Plain old good scouting can do that and 2) More often than not you always wind up back where you started when you start over-analyzing..and probably more often than not you over-analyze yourself out of making what should have been a good decision to begin with.
Hey fonzie here is another question to send you running off for yet one more day….
name ONE SINGLE player who had an OB% lower than his BA!
Name one .300 hitter you would not take because his OBP is only .300!
Comon my OBP tell us all who had a good average but horrible OBP!
See ya next week I hope….
And if thats not enough to keep you away try this…
TORONTO BLUE JAYS!
“you don’t need saber to scout what you think are studs. Plain old good scouting can do that ”
Exactly. I read an atricle on ESPN titled “Nicer numbers likely coming for Niese”. And it said that he would have nicer numbers because of FIP. But anyone who has watched him pitch and knows anything about him, would know that he is going to have nicer numbers this year because he’s a very talented pitcher – He’s a big lefthander with a nasty curveball that at times last year showed flashes where he looked really good. And he’s only 25 years old.
So, I know he should pitch better than last year. I don’t need FIP to tell me that because I already knew that by simply watching him pitch.
Bayonne, let me start by saying in no way shape or form am I a saber guy. I’ll look at some of them at the end of the season but I’m not all that into that stuff. That stuff is for front office people to use and the over analyzing fans that fall in love with that stuff. I don’t.
I don’t have a problem with teams using it because they’re having success with it. If teams that are not using them and having success than nobody should have a problem with that either. I don’t know why people get so bent out of shape either way. As a GM you do whatever you think you need to do to make informed decisions.
I do believe and have for a long time that both OB% and Slug% are more important to run production than batting average. I’ve felt that way long before Sandy Alderson was the GM.
What you said, You’ll take Beltran over Murphy is pretty much what I’m saying. you take the higher OPS guy. That’s pretty much all I’m trying to get at. The higher the OPS the better the hitter. There are no high OPS guys that aren’t good hitters.
I know the 09 team had most of the lineup out for most of the year but even so they still led the NL in batting avg. Even though the regulars were out they still hit for a high average, highest in the league and they couldn’t score runs because they had no power and were only a little above average getting on base. Some teams regular lineups are like that with no injuries and they can’t score runs.
That’s why I’ll take the high Slug% over the high batting average 100% of the time. I’ll take the 500 slug% over the 300 avg any day. I’ll take a 285/385/525 over the 310/340/470 all the time.
I like the comparison you made between McGriff and Gwynn. Normally I take the higher OPS but in this case it’s a toss up. When you’re talking about a 338 career avg, 388 OB and 459 Slug that’s pretty tough to pass up. Gwynn rarely ever struckout and McGriff was a K machine but a ton power. 282/377/509. That’s a much tougher call than Beltran vs Murphy.
Now if you went Strawberry vs Gwynn, both RFers, Straw being pre drugs and booze 83-91. I probably take Straws prime years over Gwynn.
The other day Metsie said he would take Reyes’ 292/341/441 over Rickey Hendersons 285/408/431. He’d rather have the extra 7 points in BA instead of the extra 68 points in Rickey’s OB. The fact that he would take Reyes over Rickey is nuts enough let alone the 68 points in OB.
Hi Fonzie,
Actually, I was trying to say that both high batting average and high on base percentages in many cases does not give a good read on a team’s ability to score runs.
It’s the clutch hitting and the ability to utilize the opportunities one creates (let it be a lot or very little) as often as possible. If a team can score five runs in an inning, bunching up it’s hits, it’s obviously better than getting four runs and leaving numerous runners on base instead. That’s why in the post-game summary the broadcasters always include how many runners the teams left on base. High OBP often results in wasted base runners.
I always refer to the guys with low batting averages who got their hits when it counted (i.e., Joe Rudi) or their home runs when it counted most (i.e, Harmon Killebrew in lieu of Dave Kingman). Low batting averages don’t indicate one’s ability to come through when it counts and with the game on the line in the late innings.
And it so much depends upon the makeup of the team. One that relies upon speed and moving runners over and tight pitching won’t be up there with the league leaders in scoring, batting average or OBP yet can win a division like the Phillies, who didn’t bash anybody out of existence like years before but won the division because of that great rotation that did wonders pitching in a band box. Even better, take the old Los Angeles Dodgers clubs of the sixites – Hall of fame type pitching, great defense and great speed yet no power and few who hit for average so they were near the bottom in scoring. Those Dodger teams just squeaked out victory after victory. Any other pitching staff and they would have been a second division club (for anyone in this day and age of six divisions and four wildcards asking what “second” division” is – that was a term used when there were ten clubs in the league with no divisions and thus those who finished sixth or lower were considered “second” division).
The big joke came from Don Drysdale when he did not make a road trip but was told Sandy Koufax just no hit the Phillies. Drysdale’s remark was “did he win?”
Notice in all this conversation, there were no references to stats? No need for it. That’s when looking at players and a team, the more one truly knows about baseball, the less one refers to stats except when talking about the record books – that’s why there is still the age old debate of who was better – Willie, Mickey or the Duke? Stats are good for profiling but anyone on a professional level who depends upon them heavily – and what they reveal in computer analysis – obviously knows less of the game than one who says “Computer? We don’t need no stinkin’ computer” (with apologies to Mr. Houston).
““I honestly don’t know what my average is, but I know I don’t have a home run, I know I don’t have an R.B.I., I know all that”.”
I think we may have found out what his problem is from that quote….
Doesn’t know what his average is, Doesn’t even care!
But he knows he doesn’t have a HR or RBI!
That suggests to me he is too busy swinging for fences and not focused on swinging to make good contact!
it suggests to me that it is ST, he is trying to find something that works, and BA doesn’t matter at this point.
Hell, I would rather he was hitting .200 but smoking liners right at people, instead of .300 on a bunch of seeing eye dribblers and little bloops.
besides, in 35 ABs, go 5 for his next 5, and he is hitting .300.
but watching him, it is scary how off he is.
something that works at doing what?
Sounds to me he is looking for something that will hit HRs and if he was just hitting for average he would not be a topic of conversation right now!
If he had a .280 or .290 BA then this article and this subject would not have been brought up!
Players really don’t need to be number crunching. They know if they are hitting well or not. If you know you’re not hitting, the exact number probably doesn’t matter.
Well what Bay is doing here IS number crunching!
He’s crunching HRs instead of focusing on hitting well!
He doesn’t care what his BA is then what does he care about?
Obviously the WRONG thing and that is why he is failing!
Focus on the BA and all the rest falls into place and even if you don’t wind up with the numbers you were looking for at least you have that BA to hang your hat on and get people off your back!
It doesn’t take a lot to count to 0.
And players shouldn’t focus on their numbers. Just do what they do best. If you are an OBP guy, you know when and how you are getting on base. If you are a power guy, you know when you are hitting the ball far.
Don’t focus on specific numbers. Just focus on doing the best you can.
It suggests to me that you are reading through the lines and drawing your own conclusions without actually knowing the guy personally.
Bottom line was that additional power was not going to help the team in 2010, not with Citi Field offsetting whatever talent one had. We should have gone for pitching and defense – that was the only way to build a team around it’s ballpark and give it a home field advantage.
So signing Bay was a mistake simply because he wouldn’t have been able to fit in and resolve the problems we had. That his hitting plummeted beyond the home run aspect only made it worse.
Hey stick, I bet when you saw Puma write this this morning you was like “that is what I’ve been saying all along”.
Though for me personally coming from Puma I put little stock into this story.
Especially when it was one Mets “official” saying that if he continued to struggle they might do something… LOL.
This just in: Puma says it’s Luis Hernandez who will platoon with Bay if he struggles.
This the season for Fantasy Baseball. And the Mets! Have you seen Ike Davis’ cameo in “Should I Pujols or Cano”? The guy’s got acting chops: http://youtu.be/UPwuWwBbn6w
Nice.
“How’s the ankle?”
Ike: “Dude, better than Ryan Howard’s”
That was funny.
But is Ike wearing a Cowboys t-shirt? Damn.
I think Bay is a good guy but the fact is at this point if he dosent produce in one month I would release him. It just is what it is.
Fred Lewis was just cut by the Indians today. He wouldn’t be a bad pickup for the Mets. I recall the Mets had interest in him in the past. Speed, defense, good vs RHP (.275/.352/.428/.780). He’d be a good platoon partner in LF.
There are two guys out there in Lewis and Spilborghs that I would be interested in.
Lewis is not a bad idea but either Baxter or someone else is getting those AB’s vs. RHP unless Bay kicks it into gear by May 15th.