Agree 100% and you hit upon my beef not so much with sabremetrics but with those who are so ardent in their support of it that they make it seem that advanced computer analysis is the know-all, tell-all or something close to that.

I feel the advanced computer analysis is indeed a valuable aid that should be used in conjunction with everything at a general manager’s disposal though I think some general managers rely on them more than others (Sandy being one of them) but even with those I again think the overall application itself might have been built up and exaggerted by the media and the fans making it seem as the major (if not entire) way many executives look at a player and the team make-up is “outside the box”,

That’s because I think those with a professional knowledge of the game know who the better clutch hitters are, those who make the productive outs, etc and need this information to confirm their own memories (remember how I confused Lance Berkman with Jeff Bagwell? ). Even on-base percentage has to be looked at differently – with runners in scoring position, it’s one thing to be pitched around with the open base but it’s different if one had pitches just outside the strikezone that he could handle but didn’t swing at. A two out walk would not have been as productive as a base hit but under that scenario, it would not be the on base percentage that is important but how that on base percentage was acquired. Some hitters are too tentative with border line pitches and other aren’t. That’s what the guys out on the field know.

Now I’m not saying the use of “traditional” stats is any better indication of a player’s true ability, either. I’m saying the information that should be fed into the computer should be 1) statistical for use by managers and players (i.e., Davey Johnson) and 2) statistical but also lengthy compositions based on observations that further tells something about the player beyond black and white figures.

So it might not be the message that I’m against but the messenger. Any thoughts?

Joe

Good nite Joey.D

Didn’t forget that I have to find that article quoting general managers about their mixed opinions about the advanced computer stats. As memory serves it seemed many embraced it and then slowly turned away from putting much emphasis on it. Don’t quote me, I might be wrong but I do know there were mixed opinions and not sure which club was pro and which club was con.

My point about Bill James and others projecting such lofty figures about Bay was that I didn’t, based nothing more on observation and understanding. In fact, I don’t recall any of my Met fans agreeing with me. Same with the projected decent career for Lastings Miledge that I didn’t adhere to as well. Of course, two examples do not a realisitic argument make, but I want to show that computer analysis lacks human wisdom and thus the data goes only so far. Remember the sabremetric argument about Jeff Bagwell (bet you thought I was going to say Lance Berkman again LOL) being the fifth greatest first baseman of all time?

That’s why I feel advanced stats definitely have a place in baseball but not to the point that it has been contended to be today, both by fans and by the professionals.

But no, I’m not ready to tackle Walter!

Nighty night,
Joey

He didn’t just wake up after he was traded to Boston and become a power hitter, he was already an established power hitter. Omar hired a statistic analyst as have just about every team in MLB and I wouldn’t be surprised if all 30 teams now have at least one.

I agree I wouldn’t have given a LF a multi year deal when we had much bigger concerns with the pitching staff and a bunch of LF types in the farm system, but no one could’ve predicted that Bay would’ve only hit 6 HR’s in 2010.

Bill James made a projection, he was wrong. If he could be 100% accurate which is virtually impossible, he’d be worth more money than Bill Gates. I saw many predictions that had Bay down for 20-25 HR’s and 85-95 RBI’s so most people thought there would be a dropoff but not to that extent.

I don’t even think now there’s too much emphasis on cumpiterized analytics here now let alone when Omar was here. Besides I’m sure you wouldn’t mind the results of the Yankees, Redsox, Rangers and Cardinals. They’ve put more emphasis on it than we have. So once again my friend I have to disagree.

The reason I brought up computer analysis was because the father of sabremetrics projected the following for Jason Bay in 2010:

Season Type G PA H 1B 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG
2010 Bill James 153 648 150 84 32 2 32 88 159 11 4 0.268

Omar’s own explanation was that stats showed the Jason’s power came from pulling the ball down the toward the left field line.

My prediction was, at most, 15 home runs based on Citi Field having already messed up Wright and Beltran and the moaning from visiting players – plus him being pitched to differently so not being able to pull the ball down the line. Not only did one have to take into account the long distances but also the height of the walls which, in the left field power alley, would mean one would have to hit a ball the equivalent of 450 feet for it to get out due to the arch required for it to make it over the fence.

That’s why I said two years ago that getting Jason was going to be a bust. Even if he wasn’t injured, he was not headed toward that type a season. Again, the computer not taking into account the human element. Omar blew this one big by still trying to go for power instead of pitching. The Mets didn’t bring in the fences for nothing.

Who is placing so much emphasis on computer analysis? And what does it have to do with Jason Bay?

What I didn’t know until I just googled it is: If he signs a new contract, that amount will be subtracted from what the original team has to pay.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Designated_for_assignment

This is what he has had in his career:

Year PA
2003 107
2004 472
2005 707
2006 689
2007 614
2008 670
2009 638
2010 401
2011 509

But in reality, nothing the franchise and fans can do except cross our collective fingers and hope he finally shows up.

That’s a given. I made the reference only to point out that emotions do play a part on team performance. Of course, decisions have to be made for what is best for the team even if it upsets the clubhouse. I remember in 1974 when the Yankees traded off some popular players to get Chris Chambliss – Bobby Murcer complained of how they were breaking up the team. Of course, we know what Chris went on to mean for the Yankees the next half decade.

So the popularity aspect should not come into equation. Leadership is, however. We know of many a team that didn’t miss the performance of the player but of the leadership qualities that seemed to then hold them back. Getting back to those ’86 Mets, didn’t some say that not having the leadership presence of Ray Knight was something the team missed badly?

Again, that’s why one should not leave the responsibility of molding a baseball team to one who places so much emphasis on computer analysis. Use that analysis as an aid, definitely, but keep it in perspective.

How we doing otherwise, Tommie?

Joe

With Bay it’s more of a case of having to carry the guy when he would be benched if he wasn’t making the big money.

Sounds a bit different from Ralph Kiner’s take last Sunday when he observed Jason was not pushing down hard on his front foot and still seemed lost. Terry, of course, cannot speak negatively of his players while Ralph is in the objective position to do so. Wonder what computer analysis says Jason should do?

I like Jason and felt he would have a good comeback season with the Citi Field mess now behind him. However it just might be that Citi Field has messed him up for the long term. As Ralph pointed out, he’s pressing.