20
2012
What Will The Mets Do With Jason Bay?
An article by Former Writers
To say Jason Bay’s tenure this far with the Mets is disappointing would be a huge understatement. When Bay was signed it was thought that he would be providing the much needed power to the Mets lineup. From 2004-2009 Bay averaged at least 21 home-runs, nobody could have predicted his drop-off would be so severe when he signed with the Mets. As a Met Jason Bay has hit just 18 home-runs! Oh and he’s only hitting .250 as Met!
Bay is two years into his $66 million contract he has an easily attainable $18 million vesting option for 2014, that vests based on 500 plate appearances each in 2012 and 2013.
Unfortunately Bay still continues to struggle and he hasn’t shown much improvement this spring.
The question will eventually be ”what will the Mets do with Jason Bay?” Trading him won’t be an option as no general manager will take on that contract. I don’t even think we can swap bad contracts with another team given Bay’s lack of production. So besides a trade what else can the Mets do?
- Extended Spring Training: This seems unlikely as much as it would be needed. As was pointed out to me recently, Jason Bay is one of the only regular players that is healthy so you can be certain that he will be coming North with team once they break camp.
- Moving Him Down The Lineup: This will be a reality at some point this season I’m sure. Unfortunately whether he’s in the middle of the lineup or batting 8th he still be hurting the lineup with his lack of production. You cannot have a player continuously underperforming as he has and expect a positive outcome to this tale.
- Minor League Assignment: This is always a tough one with a veteran player like Jason Bay. He’s got the right to refuse a minor league assignment. We saw this with Oliver Perez a couple of years ago. It takes time off his service time. I doubt the Mets even approach this option.
- Platooning Him: If moving Bay down the lineup doesn’t work and the Mets don’t ask and/or Bay doesn’t accept the Minor League assignment this will probably be the most logical option. I know the players union might have an issue because of the vesting option, but the Mets will have a clear case that his lack of production is hurting the team.
- Cutting Losses: This is always tough, especially when it comes to the amount of money Jason Bay is owed. Many have concerns that even though a player shows no signs of improving, he will get cut from his current team, sign for the minimum with another team and return to greatness. Sometimes you have to bite the bullet and make the cut.
It’s not a great situation to be in with Jason Bay that’s for sure. I would first move him down the lineup and if that doesn’t work I would ask him to accept a minor league assignment. If Bay is interested in helping the team and wanting to improve, he can take the assignment, go to Buffalo and work on his swing. It has helped before. If Bay turns down the minor league assignment, I wouldn’t bench him as that does nothing, but occupy a roster spot. I would part ways with him and cut him. Let him be someone else’s problem. Sometimes addition by subtraction is the only way to go. Of course the best case scenario is that Bay finds his swing and starts to hit again. You gotta believe right?
About the Author: Former Writers
50 Comments + Add Comment
NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 42 | 30 | .583 | - |
| Phillies | 35 | 37 | .486 | 7.0 |
| Nationals | 34 | 36 | .486 | 7.0 |
| Mets | 27 | 40 | .403 | 12.5 |
| Marlins | 22 | 48 | .314 | 19.0 |
Last updated: 06/19/2013
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Different time but same theory – see George Foster….
Different time, same theory, but different circumstances too. One of the things that gets said about Bay is he’s a great clubhouse guy and has a good relationship with the younger players. Foster, on the other hand, was generally disliked by the team and he really sealed his own fate in 1986 when he sat alone on the bench during the Ray Knight-Eric Davis bench-clearing (minus Foster) brawl in Cincinnati.
Baseball is more psychological than other sports. Dumping Bay could have a negative impact in the clubhouse. A good comparable would be Pelfrey saying Santana’s absense last season hurt him because Johan kept getting on him. Getting rid of Bay seems analogous to having a more senior co-worker at your job that suddenly gets laidoff and the whole mood of the office changes. It may be the feel-good move for the fans but we don’t know what kind of impact it would have in the clubhouse.
Hi AV. I take your point. However, it all comes down to production. If Foster was producing at the time of the brawl he would have remained a Met – whether he jumped in or not.
Bay is a great clubhouse guy but he still has to produce. Julio Franco was a great clubhouse guy. We saw how that worked out. I’m not worried however! Moises Alou will be off the DL any day now!!
Just to clarify JJ, I didn’t say cutting Bay was the wrong move. I just think the impact on the team’s psyche would be far greater than when Foster was released. Julio Franco is a good comparison. His only positive contribution was convincing Carlos Beltran to come out for a curtain call.
But isn’t it demoralizing to the team when you have a guy who kills rallies with strikeouts and grounding into double plays on a regular basis? Bay seems like a good guy but the end of the day it comes down to production and unfortunately for us Bay just isn’t producing.
Notice when it comes to the Bay situation, there are so many comments about the psychological impact on the team? Notice this was also not the case for many on another post when it came to the emotional effect in the clubhouse ridding us of Beltran and KRod and it’s impact in the development of the young kids?
Thought it was all business and each player understands it.
Pomes point is about a fixture in the lineup coming up small each and almost every time he’s in a spot with a chance to do something. Beltran or K-Rod being traded is considered part of the job and after the initial shock, even though it was expected, it’s back to business.
With Bay it’s more of a case of having to carry the guy when he would be benched if he wasn’t making the big money.
Hi 20,
That’s a given. I made the reference only to point out that emotions do play a part on team performance. Of course, decisions have to be made for what is best for the team even if it upsets the clubhouse. I remember in 1974 when the Yankees traded off some popular players to get Chris Chambliss – Bobby Murcer complained of how they were breaking up the team. Of course, we know what Chris went on to mean for the Yankees the next half decade.
So the popularity aspect should not come into equation. Leadership is, however. We know of many a team that didn’t miss the performance of the player but of the leadership qualities that seemed to then hold them back. Getting back to those ’86 Mets, didn’t some say that not having the leadership presence of Ray Knight was something the team missed badly?
Again, that’s why one should not leave the responsibility of molding a baseball team to one who places so much emphasis on computer analysis. Use that analysis as an aid, definitely, but keep it in perspective.
How we doing otherwise, Tommie?
Joe
“Again, that’s why one should not leave the responsibility of molding a baseball team to one who places so much emphasis on computer analysis. Use that analysis as an aid, definitely, but keep it in perspective”.
Who is placing so much emphasis on computer analysis? And what does it have to do with Jason Bay?
JJ, I disagree… but i kinda see your point, foster was a disappointment but trust me, jason bay is arguably the WORST FREE AGENT Sign as a position player for the mets.. Foster was 33 when he arrived with the mets, and he had maybe 2 (3)season that he hit more than 20+ Hrs, Bay on the other hand, has been a HUGE disappointment in all faces of the game. he’s been the worst FA i’ve seen…
Dunn and Figgins have actually been worse than Bay although the thought process on signing so many LFer’s to long term expensive deals just mystifys me. Alou I get if he doesn’t cost yet another #1 draft choice and the loss of a top catching prospect in the rule 5 a week after signing him.
For 1M you could stick two guys in a platoon and get 80% of the production you could expect overall for Bay to average over his 5 year deal and if one or both don’t pan out you try another two guys the next year. Here we’re just sunk waiting for yet another bad contract to expire.
With as bad as the starting pitching was in 2006-2009 why wouldn’t that be a priority? Or maybe someone behind the plate but LF? Again? How many LFer’s and first basemen does a team need?
On the plus side Bay doesn’t kill you because he is a good baserunner and always makes the right throw and doesn’t bog down your lineup as he’ll take the walk but really is that what you got him for?
Back in 2010 we had some corner OF kids in the farm looking like they would be here by 2011-2013 so why clog up a position that is the easiest one on the defensive spectrum?
Fern, Ratliff, Duda, Evans and Kirk were all decent chances to be at least part of a decent platoon if not more than that so where were we going to put any of these corner OFer types if they did develop during Bay’s contract? 2B? Oh right forgot about Murph. Hmmm, catcher? CF? 1B? DH?
Very very strange to import a LFer when the only strength in your farm is the 1B/LF/DH type already and no one’s giving you anything in a package for these guys so what was the thinking? Very weird to not see the difference between Fenway and the Red Sox linuep and consider the differences here either.
Must have been the back page at ticket selling time again.
Alex68, good point. Foster did win some games for the Mets back then. His signing was similar to when they signed Pedro. Gave them credability. Made them relevant. Bay was supposed to be the answer to their current power woes. I root for the guy. He works hard and cares but just seems to have lost it. Got old in a hurry… I want to win. I’m tired of watching the Yankees, et. al. everyday in print and on tv.
As bad as Foster was, I’d be happy as a pig in shit if Bay could even match Foster’s numbers.
What’s a minor league assignment going to do for him? It’s not like a rehab assignment to get back on track. That train’s been off the track for 2 years. If it continues, he’s likely to just get less playing time and when the season is a total loss, they can experiment with the future.
What about faking injury and then a lengthy ‘rehab’ in the minors, ala Perez?
Have more faith in him than M. Pelfrey. At least he shows some hustle. He does need to start showing something besides hustle.
I agree – the guy always hustles, holds himself accountable and is regularly seen helping out teammates. Also, his stats are not much worse than Wright last year, and other than 1 dropped fly last year, Bay played excellent defense. I know I am crazy, and spring has not helped my cause, but I do believe Bay will have a huge bounce back year. I feel sorry for the guy, you know he cares, and you know he is disappointed in himself. But in the end, that is not enough. I will be rooting for him extra hard – I just can’t believe he completely lost it.
Hopefully you’re right Rich. Like I said in my post the best thing that can happen is for Bay to become his old self and produce. I just don’t have the faith you do in him rebounding but it has happened with other players in the past.
Curious to see if he even handles himself better at the plate come April. Looking for quality at bats instead of those pathetic Ks, the flailing away, etc. The guy has to get on base–bottom line.
Seriously, I’d give him two months or so, and then minors or cut.
If he’s cut, how does that factor for his option? IE, if say Houston was to pick him up and make him their everyday LF, and he gets the ABs, would his option vest and then the Mets are on the hook for that?
Great question and one that I was curious about as well. I think the option goes to the next team.
Or actually would it be void? Hell if I know.
Goes to the next team.
I trust you but are you sure? If that is the case then would any team even pick him up if he was released?
no team will. that is the problem, and why he will likely be kept.
caveat that with a team would trade for him or pick him up only if they only intended him to be a bench bat/platoon guy, taking the option out play. Pretty much what happened with KRod last year.
Good point on KRod, that was a trade instead of a release but I am assuming you are right.
He would be put on waivers. If a team picked him up on waivers then they would assume the contract. Once the waiver period ends the Mets can outright release him. They would still have to pay his contract but he can sign a separate contract with another team.
What I didn’t know until I just googled it is: If he signs a new contract, that amount will be subtracted from what the original team has to pay.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Designated_for_assignment
If he gets cut, and it is based on his performance, that’s OK. But if he is playing moderately well, PU can file a grievance. Do you remember with Livan Hernandez, Mets cut him when he had a vesting option that he was weeks away from meeting. Mets dumped him bc of his 5.47 era so no grievance was field.
It’s all about timing and performance; if it is a baseball/performance issue there is no issue
I would think that if he keeps playing the way he has been the players union cannot possibly file a grievance.
You can not let the vesting option kick in NO WAY, NO HOW!
You hope that he goes on some kind of mini roll and unload him for a bag of balls and a couple of hot dogs (See K-Rod deal and his vesting option). Even if you have to eat some of the salary!
He can not be here come next year!
He is a gentleman (perhaps way too gentle), a hustler and a clubhouse gem. I can’t help but wonder how his psyche does not include his failing affecting his family and family of players. Dad came to New York and couldn’t play the game he loved. It is hard to fathom that barring an unknown injury that your career slides because of playing in New York. It has happened before and if he were facing down the Green Monster I am sure he could put dents in it.
Collins should treat him like any other player and if he isn’t red hot in a hurry he should be sat and some youth should be called up. Healthy Captain Kirk?
It would be a feel good story if he said “get on my back” and started to hit the cover off the ball. Some are saying “he lost a step” in the outfield. He is dependable out there. This guy has it in him and his career is plummeting on any graph you see. He needs to get angry and take it out on pitchers. Right now he appears to be a flake. A mere shell of his old self.
Jason Bay has a lot to prove for his future, that of his family, and for the fans. His contract, as of right now, is like an anchor and the whole team is trying to pull the boat. C’mon Jason. You know if the fans really got behind him he would have to honor the decision made by management based on his performance. If he showed up in Buffalo and rediscovered pop, that would contribute to the flake story and he should be cut. He should not be hitting his weight, working out walks and praying that he connects. Hit the f’in ball Bay hit it.
1 and 3 are not happening.
Moving down the lineup is reasonable. he could easily be 6th behind Duda. Not likely any further down though.
so, I see it like this:
he starts out playing every day in the 5 hole. if he continues to stink, especially being useless vs. RHP, by about 6/1 he will be dropped to 6th and put into a platoon. If he hits OK vs. LHP, that will be the end of it, and the option becomes likely a non issue since no way he get 500 PAs in 2013 starting the year as a platoon guy.
However, they will still look to trade him this season for anything, but assuming that doesn’t pan out, if the platoon doesn’t even save him, expect to see option 5 by the end of august (outright release).
I don’t see him being released until March of 2013 regardless of results.
Agree. They’ll role with him this year as it’s going to be damn near impossible to move that contract.
Worst case scenario this year is a platoon. Really depends on how awful his offense is first half.
most likely, unless he goes so far in the tank that they just can’t wait.
Sit Bay against right handed Pitching. His bat will be an asset coming off the bench. Bay is a professional. He will do his best with his diminished skills. Were stuck with Bay’s contract lets make the best of it. A part time role will avoid vesting his option. Lets go Baxter or Loewen!
Terry Collins was interviewed by Mike Francesa a little while ago and said that Jason is feeing much more comfortable at the plate and confident.
Sounds a bit different from Ralph Kiner’s take last Sunday when he observed Jason was not pushing down hard on his front foot and still seemed lost. Terry, of course, cannot speak negatively of his players while Ralph is in the objective position to do so. Wonder what computer analysis says Jason should do?
I like Jason and felt he would have a good comeback season with the Citi Field mess now behind him. However it just might be that Citi Field has messed him up for the long term. As Ralph pointed out, he’s pressing.
I’ll go with Ralph Kiner anytime over Terry Collins.
“Accidentally” leave a banana peel in front of his locker so the option doesn’t kick in.
But in reality, nothing the franchise and fans can do except cross our collective fingers and hope he finally shows up.
He’ll have to have a part time LH platoon mate. Root your asses of for Lowen or Baxter.
If torres does enough to keep his job, and Kirk comes back and tears up AAA pitching, the stars could align around 6/1 for that to be the guy.
His option is based on “plate appearances” not “games played”. It’s a vesting option if he has 600 PA’s in 2013 or 500 PA’s in both 2012 and 2013.
This is what he has had in his career:
Year PA
2003 107
2004 472
2005 707
2006 689
2007 614
2008 670
2009 638
2010 401
2011 509
I thought he needed 1100 AB’s over the course of 2012,13. 500 is even easier.
Not at bat’s, plate appearances. Walks and errors don’t record a AB so plate appearances will have a higher number.
Shit, that’s even worse.
Hi Fonzi,
The reason I brought up computer analysis was because the father of sabremetrics projected the following for Jason Bay in 2010:
Season Type G PA H 1B 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG
2010 Bill James 153 648 150 84 32 2 32 88 159 11 4 0.268
Omar’s own explanation was that stats showed the Jason’s power came from pulling the ball down the toward the left field line.
My prediction was, at most, 15 home runs based on Citi Field having already messed up Wright and Beltran and the moaning from visiting players – plus him being pitched to differently so not being able to pull the ball down the line. Not only did one have to take into account the long distances but also the height of the walls which, in the left field power alley, would mean one would have to hit a ball the equivalent of 450 feet for it to get out due to the arch required for it to make it over the fence.
That’s why I said two years ago that getting Jason was going to be a bust. Even if he wasn’t injured, he was not headed toward that type a season. Again, the computer not taking into account the human element. Omar blew this one big by still trying to go for power instead of pitching. The Mets didn’t bring in the fences for nothing.
First off you can hardly say Omar put too much emphasis on computer analysis. Omar was a scout. Omar has been scrutinized for not using advanced stats enough. What they did was chart Bay’s flyballs which accurately showed Bay was a dead pull hitter. The only problem with it is he stopped trying to pull the ball. The LF dimensions at Citifield are not as deep as PNC Park in Pittsburgh and Bay had no problem there. They don’t have the high walls but it’s a deeper LF.
He didn’t just wake up after he was traded to Boston and become a power hitter, he was already an established power hitter. Omar hired a statistic analyst as have just about every team in MLB and I wouldn’t be surprised if all 30 teams now have at least one.
I agree I wouldn’t have given a LF a multi year deal when we had much bigger concerns with the pitching staff and a bunch of LF types in the farm system, but no one could’ve predicted that Bay would’ve only hit 6 HR’s in 2010.
Bill James made a projection, he was wrong. If he could be 100% accurate which is virtually impossible, he’d be worth more money than Bill Gates. I saw many predictions that had Bay down for 20-25 HR’s and 85-95 RBI’s so most people thought there would be a dropoff but not to that extent.
I don’t even think now there’s too much emphasis on cumpiterized analytics here now let alone when Omar was here. Besides I’m sure you wouldn’t mind the results of the Yankees, Redsox, Rangers and Cardinals. They’ve put more emphasis on it than we have. So once again my friend I have to disagree.
Fonzi my buddy,
Didn’t forget that I have to find that article quoting general managers about their mixed opinions about the advanced computer stats. As memory serves it seemed many embraced it and then slowly turned away from putting much emphasis on it. Don’t quote me, I might be wrong but I do know there were mixed opinions and not sure which club was pro and which club was con.
My point about Bill James and others projecting such lofty figures about Bay was that I didn’t, based nothing more on observation and understanding. In fact, I don’t recall any of my Met fans agreeing with me. Same with the projected decent career for Lastings Miledge that I didn’t adhere to as well. Of course, two examples do not a realisitic argument make, but I want to show that computer analysis lacks human wisdom and thus the data goes only so far. Remember the sabremetric argument about Jeff Bagwell (bet you thought I was going to say Lance Berkman again LOL) being the fifth greatest first baseman of all time?
That’s why I feel advanced stats definitely have a place in baseball but not to the point that it has been contended to be today, both by fans and by the professionals.
But no, I’m not ready to tackle Walter!
Nighty night,
Joey
Joey I don’t think sabermetrics and that alone should be the way to construct an organization but I think if it’s not part of your plan you’ll be behind the curve. I think smart baseball people rely on all available tools that exist to evaluate talent. If Sandy and company were just sitting behind a laptop and not out scouting kids all over the country, we would be in for some trouble. The scouting staff was increased when he was hired and he said himself rely on his scouting staff and statistical analysis to make decisions.
Good nite Joey.D
Good morning Fonzi, and hope you had a good night’s sleep!
Agree 100% and you hit upon my beef not so much with sabremetrics but with those who are so ardent in their support of it that they make it seem that advanced computer analysis is the know-all, tell-all or something close to that.
I feel the advanced computer analysis is indeed a valuable aid that should be used in conjunction with everything at a general manager’s disposal though I think some general managers rely on them more than others (Sandy being one of them) but even with those I again think the overall application itself might have been built up and exaggerted by the media and the fans making it seem as the major (if not entire) way many executives look at a player and the team make-up is “outside the box”,
That’s because I think those with a professional knowledge of the game know who the better clutch hitters are, those who make the productive outs, etc and need this information to confirm their own memories (remember how I confused Lance Berkman with Jeff Bagwell?
). Even on-base percentage has to be looked at differently – with runners in scoring position, it’s one thing to be pitched around with the open base but it’s different if one had pitches just outside the strikezone that he could handle but didn’t swing at. A two out walk would not have been as productive as a base hit but under that scenario, it would not be the on base percentage that is important but how that on base percentage was acquired. Some hitters are too tentative with border line pitches and other aren’t. That’s what the guys out on the field know.
Now I’m not saying the use of “traditional” stats is any better indication of a player’s true ability, either. I’m saying the information that should be fed into the computer should be 1) statistical for use by managers and players (i.e., Davey Johnson) and 2) statistical but also lengthy compositions based on observations that further tells something about the player beyond black and white figures.
So it might not be the message that I’m against but the messenger. Any thoughts?
Joe