14
2012
Things That Make You Go Hmm… Lannan or Pelfrey?
An article by 
While reading Tyler’s post this morning on what if anything the Mets should do with Mike Pelfrey moving forward, I couldn’t resist the temptation of comparing him to the National’s John Lannan who is apparently available according to Danny Knobler of CBS Sports, yet too rich for the Mets taste which is rather unfortunate.
Red Sox, Tigers, Astros among teams watching Lannan, who will likely be dealt. Mets and Pads had interest, but $5 mill is too much for them.
— DKnobler (@DKnobler) March 13, 2012
Lets put aside the facts that Lannan is a year younger than Mike Pelfrey, or that he will earn nearly a million dollars less than Pelfrey in 2012, or that he’s a southpaw which I always put an extra premium on. Instead let’s simply consider these two from a performance stand point first.
Lannan went 10-13 last season with a 3.70 ERA in 33 starts for the Nationals, while Pelfrey clocked in with a 7-13 record and a 4.74 ERA in 33 starts as well for the Mets. Of course, Pelfrey’s numbers may have been even worse if not for the shelter Citi Field provided him and all pitchers. His ERA at home was 3.94 while on the road he pitched to an unsightly 5.49 ERA.
Both Lannan and Pelfrey have very similar metrics beyond the old stand-bys, particularly with their K/9, SO/BB and WHIP, but what is surprising to me is that our sinker-baller has a worse HR Rate than Lannan. How is that even possible?
Lannan’s availability has been well known and documented from the moment the Nationals completed the deal to acquire Gio Gonzalez from the A’s (a great move by the Nats by the way). What I don’t understand is why didn’t the Mets make a move to acquire Lannan instead of avoiding arbitration with Pelfrey to the tune of $5.7 million dollars?
It’s kind of troubling to see a team like the Nationals so stacked with pitchers that they would have no room for a promising young left-hander like John Lannan, who would easily slot in as a top of the rotation pitcher for the Mets.
Meanwhile Mets fans wrestle daily with the pros and cons of Mike Pelfrey, who was richly rewarded for what was one of the worst performances by a Mets starting pitcher making 30 or more starts in the last 40+ years.
If this new philosophy we keep hearing about is about getting the most for what you pay for, Pelfrey presents quite the oxymoron, doesn’t he?
Unless of course, suckitude is the new market inefficiency.
About the Author: Joe DeCaro
I'm a lifelong Mets fan who loves writing and talking about the Amazins' 24/7. From the Miracle in 1969 to the magic of 1986, and even the near misses in '73 and '00, I've experienced it all - the highs and the lows. I started Mets Merized Online in 2005 to feed my addiction. Follow me on Twitter @metsmerized.
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NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 42 | 30 | .583 | - |
| Phillies | 35 | 37 | .486 | 7.0 |
| Nationals | 34 | 36 | .486 | 7.0 |
| Mets | 27 | 40 | .403 | 12.5 |
| Marlins | 22 | 48 | .314 | 19.0 |
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Although we won’t get him, I wouldn’t mind seeing Lannan as a New York Met. It is quite likely we wouldn’t be so upset about just about every pitcher on this team. As you said Joe, it really is quite unfortunate that he is too rich for the Mets to get, because he would have been a nice addition.
[...] Things That Make You Go Hmm… Lannan or Pelfrey? March 14th, 2012 admin An article by Joe D No Comments [...]
I’m not so sure the Nationals would deal Lannan within the division. Their GM Rizzo is very old school type. But yeah, they should have tried. Pelfrey isn’t cut out for the glare of NY and has always seemed like an odd fit.
it’s the prospect cost that makes it a non-starter.
If he was a FA and you could get him for less $, a no brainer. But given they (career wise) are not that far apart (And Lannan is far from a top of the rotation pitcher), and cost close to the same salary, is it really worth switching the 2 guys if you have to throw say harvey and Kirk into the deal?
I disagree that someone like a Pelfrey or Lannan would command a package including a high level prospect like Matt Harvey plus Kirk Nieuwenhuis.
If we could get that, we would have traded Pelfrey long ago.
I’m thinking a guy like Gee tops plus a b level prospect to keep it interesting.
So I would have offered Dillon Gee and one of Robert Carson, Chris Schwinden or Pedro Beato.
Remember, they want to avoid paying him the $5 mil to be a number six starter.
They don’t really have a need for either of those guys though.
They have a strength in #5 guys but a hole in CF. Wouldn’t that mean the only true reason for trading him would be to fill a hole? They are not exactly concerned with cash flow at the moment.
Even so, I wouldn’t hesitate moving Nieuwenhuis for a starting pitcher if that’s what it would have taken. Outfield prospects are not in short supply these days, but a pitcher who can give you 30-35 MLB starts, ovwer 50% of them quality starts, are worth a premium. But usually teams that trade MLB rotation starters almost always get a pitching prospect back in the deal most of the time whether its a top prospect or a secondary piece to the return.
Corner outfilders are easy to come by in the Mets system. It is center fielders we don’t have on hand. Puello, Ceciliani, Lagares, Nimmo etc etc are at least 2 years out, assuming they stick at CF.
Not th I think Niewenhuis is anything special but we have a shortage of MLB ready CFers. We really can’t afford to move a Niewenhuis unless it’s a Don Corleone type offer.
But again is Kirk going to slot into their OF this year? It appears that is what they are going for. Looking for a CF that can play this year.
Also Pelfrey was at 15 QS last year in a down year, so your expectations aren’t very high.
Just saying what most likely the Nats would require from the Mets for him. Even Kirk + a pitching prospect is still a lot to give up (with all the Mets other needs) for a relatively lateral move.
Time to play the game:
Lannan: 4.12 ERA last 2 seasons, 1.506 WHIP with a 18-21 record.
Pelfrey: 4.19 ERA last 2 seasons, 1.42 WHIP with a 22-22 record.
Now exactly why would we want to trade a decent prospect, release Pelfrey and still pay Pelfrey
#2 about the same amount.
Are you serious in your comment about him being a top of the rotation guy?
stick — Harvey and Kirk in the deal? No way, no how — unless they throw Harper and Strasburg into the deal!!! lol
Realistically what would they be looking for that the Mets could even provide? Perhaps a future 1B? Maybe a future 2B? If Havens were healthy he might be on their list. Maybe Jordanny?
Most importantly they are looking for a CF for THIS season and any trade of Lannan is most likely going to be in that direction. Maybe we can propose a trade of Torres? LOL. If Kirk is not ready for us then why would the Nats deal Lannan for him if they are looking to compete this year?
Isn’t Kirk down with an injury right now?
Thought he was but with the numbers growing almost daily, I’m kind of losing track.
I agree about an almost even swap there. If we’re giving up prospects, it should be for an improvement.
Yes, Niewenhuis has the ever popular oblique strain.