Santana Passes Another Big Test

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• Russell Zanca March 6, 2012 at 2:34 pm

  Woo-Hoo!
• Metsie March 6, 2012 at 2:59 pm

  He actually threw above 90 today!

  lets see jow he feels in two days
• srt March 6, 2012 at 3:04 pm

  He looked good. I know it’s very early.
  Here’s hoping he feels good too in the next couple of days.
• Bayonne Mets Fan March 6, 2012 at 4:03 pm

  His motion looked like it changed, as if he was coming over the top more. He seemed more upright than in the past
  • stick March 6, 2012 at 4:16 pm

    It would be interesting to see a side by side by side slow mo of his motion back in the good old days when he was healthy, towards the end of his tiem pitching hurt, and what he is now.

    I am pretty sure that he had adapted to the sore shoulder at the end (maybe pushing the ball more, or short arming it and not following through or extending fully?)

    So it would be a real good sign if he looks (mechanically) more like when he was a Twin, and less like 2010.
  • XtreemIcon March 6, 2012 at 4:39 pm

    Interesting thought. I found a video on youtube from a couple of years ago, and it certainly looks like he’s crouched more than in the past. If you pause http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Swsk0UaE7zQ at :04 and pause the video on mets.com from today at :33, you’ll see what I’m talking about. I wonder if he’s lower now because he needs his legs more to compensate for his shoulder. I can’t make a determination from these low-res videos on his arm angle, but I would definitely love to see that.
• Joey D. March 6, 2012 at 4:33 pm

  Still, I heard that his velocity was good which is fine with me.

  If you guys noticed the change in pitching motion, I’m sure (OK, I’m not…, just hopeful) the Mets did as well. But it’s noticing that difference which is why many of us “traditionalists” debate with sabers regarding the importance of computer generated formulas. If after a time Santana was still pitching poor, one GM might notice the slight physical reason behind it and go for him while the Bill James followers might look at the computer formulas and think otherwise…
  • stick March 6, 2012 at 5:00 pm

    I’m not quite sure I am following this (and no, I am not a “sabergoon”). You are saying that a GM that looks at advanced stats would not bother to look at a guy to figure out why his results changed? None of them do that. If anything, looking at trends would make them more likely to look closer at a player, since the stats would point out that there was a change for some reason.

    just another tool in the toolbox. And if you think about it, if you weren’t looking at #s to start with, you wouldn’t even know to look for the change! Or another way, know to care about it.
    • Joey D. March 6, 2012 at 8:53 pm

      Hi Stick,

      No, the point I was getting at is that what could cause any pitcher’s performance to go down does not depend upon computer analysis to be discovered.

      There has been a friendly debate between us and sabrers who believe advanced computer analysis is invaluable helping to determine what one’s problem might be. In the case of a pitcher’s performance suddenly going down, supporters would point out to the correlation of past and current stats on fly balls versus ground balls, the type of batted ball coming deeper in the count as opposed to first ball hitting, how pitches might change in the middle innings, how effective one’s curve up and in is as opposed to down and in, etc. and other areas where he excels and to where he falters, so one could work with his pitching coach to better utilize or return to the strengths that makes him most effective.

      Those on my side of the fence would contend those statistics would provide precision measurements not necessary to those who have or still do play the game because they would already be aware of such factors due to their own baseball intellect. Having access to such information in such precise detail would be more helpful for us who watch the game than those who are a part of it I would agree that such a detailed analysis would be of immense help in terms of accuracy as opposed to the limitation of human memory and notes – but that is the retrieval of information, not an undiscovered revelation.

      Al Leiter wished he had such advanced statistics to help him when facing batters. Again, that is in terms of retrieval more than learning for as long as modern baseball has existed, the starting pitcher and his catcher always met before the game to determine how to pitch to each and every batter and one who doesn’t know which batter murders his curve ball and which can’t hit his slider will have a very, very short lived major league career.

      A second string catcher who later on was sold to the Mets by the Dodgers was able to notice a problem in Sandy Koufax’s pitching motion which turned him from a mediocre thrower to probably the greatest left handed pitcher in major league history.

      So that’s one aspect about the ongoing debate about the importance of advanced stats. Both sides are entrenched in their ways and as long as each respects the other, the debate will always continue.
      • Fonzie13 March 7, 2012 at 12:04 am

        What does advanced stats have to do with noticing a difference in Santana’s delivery? Do you think only a traditionalist if there’s such a thing, would notice the difference and an advocate of advanced stats wouldn’t? If you watch your team play night in, night out, you will notice such things as a change in delivery, batting stance, etc… Makes no difference which side of the fence you’re on.
        • Joey D. March 7, 2012 at 12:27 am

          …. with somebody pointing out how computer analysis shows a pitcher to be more effective in certain areas and less effective in others and proclaiming these advanced stats unearthed important information that otherwise would have remained unnoticed by the coaching staff. Sort of like the computer analysis which projected Bay having a good 2010 because most of his power came from pulling the ball down the line. Or that computer programmers through values and formulas can better determine which inexpensive players could best fit in and help the team more than scouts or other baseball insiders could – the WAR factor.

          I know, I opened myself up to friendly criticism using Santana as a point but midway through the season there will be many looking to the computer for answers regarding his success or failure rather than those like Bayonne who noticed he was coming too much from the top as opposed to the past.
          • Fonzie13 March 7, 2012 at 3:47 am

            Bayonne noticed a difference in his delivery and I agree with him. He also looked to be more hunched going into his windup. I still don’t see your point. I don’t think it matters if you’re an advocate of advanced stats or not. You need not be one or the other to notice something different from the past. If you’ve seen Johan pitch in the past and saw him yesterday afternoon you could tell the difference. I’m sure a guy like Bill James would be able to tell if Josh Beckett changed his delivery. No computer analysis needed.
            • Joey D. March 7, 2012 at 9:48 am

              Hi Fonzi,

              The point I was trying to make is that when a pitcher falters there are some who are so carried away with computer analysis that they contend that through sabremetrics they could determine what type of pitches and situations are they faltering in more often , changes in pitcing patterns, etc. or other subtlies that might not picked up by observation and then provide this to the pitching coach and manager.

              Using Santana as a point to advocate my position that one rely less on the computer and go back to behind the batting cage, the video tape or scouting in the stands.
• GW March 6, 2012 at 4:49 pm

  So far so good. With a fastball at 90 mph, he’ll never be the savoir, but can be a solid #2, #3 starter, which for us means the ace…

  Sigh.
  • stick March 6, 2012 at 4:55 pm

    he hasen’t been much over that for years though, and was pitching pretty effectively with a bad shoulder and diminished stuff.

    plus, great sign if he was that high, early in the spring and intentionally holding back.