Comments on: On Paper How Bad are the 2012 Mets Really?

By: John

John — Sat, 10 Mar 2012 22:28:05 +0000

How did you get the Steamer projections for runs allowed? The best I could get out of their spreadsheet was ERA/9*IP, and that’s just earned runs.

I’m interested because from what I can tell the Steamer projections are excellent for pitchers but their spreadsheet leaves something to be desired. The innings and games started don’t add up to reasonable numbers. The Rangers are projected to pitch 1170 innings, while the Dodgers pitch 1566.

By: Joey D.

Joey D. — Sun, 04 Mar 2012 22:26:03 +0000

Oh, so true. One can throw projections out the window due to unanticipated injury but when could it have even been said about throwing out projections due to unanticipated actions by ownership in the name of “rebuilding”?

I also believe this team could be much better than predicted (and could have been much better than that if it wasn’t both dismantled and patched up so little in return).

No calculations based on projection systems needed – we all know it depends upon the young pitchers and Santana’s return necessitating less use of the bullpen which has added at least two quality relievers (Rauch is not of quality unless he proves otherwise) and the power becoming rejuvenated due to Cit Field.

The big problem is also the division they are – so many strong teams. What we also need is for each of them to fight among themselves so the Mets can sneak up to at least a possible wildcard play-in berth.

Everything has to go right for this to happen. So I think the Mets could go from 73 to 87 games, the higher the number being the better the pitching and defense is. If two of three of our young starters and Rauch falter, look for it to be 73. And f Ike Davis gets caught up with the Valley disease and the Wilpons rid themselves of Wright and/or Santana, it might be tough to even crack 65.

By: Richie

Richie — Sun, 04 Mar 2012 15:39:21 +0000

Exactly. Wright is already hurt. Hairston — while a bench player — is hurt too which raises even more questions on a terrible bench. Yippie Pelfrey is a waste of space and I bet Dickey is out the door before the trading deadline.

I will hold to “the Mets will not win 70 games” comment hoping I am wrong … but I really think a win total in the 60′s would be likely.

By: met fan

met fan — Sun, 04 Mar 2012 15:00:16 +0000

What is the projection if Wright is traded at the deadline for prospects? And I expect a starter might be traded at this time also (Pelfrey?, if he’s pitching well?) ?

By: Kay

Kay — Sun, 04 Mar 2012 14:30:11 +0000

Remember when, on paper, they were suppose to win it all?

By: theonlymaskman

theonlymaskman — Sun, 04 Mar 2012 13:46:55 +0000

Let’s see now, that’s an idealistic calculation of 77-85. However, reality is such that unexpected things happen, injuries occur and the idealistic calculation is never actually realized. So 62-100 is not that far away from 77-85. Already there are questions about Ike. What if a problem occurs with Santana’s recovery? Just about every position has a question associated with it. This team could very well set a new all-time low for its final record. It is not out of the realm of possibility.

By: METS GEEK

METS GEEK — Sun, 04 Mar 2012 02:16:37 +0000

To :Long Time Fan.. U have to be the most optimistic person ever.
I want to go to Vegas with you !

By: LongTimeFan

LongTimeFan — Sun, 04 Mar 2012 00:21:03 +0000

I disagree. I see good offense, above average pen, average starting pitching, gritty, hungry roster and manager, and some of our quality prospects make their debut.

By: LongTimeFan

LongTimeFan — Sun, 04 Mar 2012 00:12:57 +0000

People underestimate this team. I can see 85-88 wins if key players stay healthy for majority of season. I think some of the perception and negativity stems from a lack of very dynamic, multi-tooled players on both sides of the ball such as a Justin Upton. Torres and Tejada will have to step up to give us stolen base and solid OBP. But our projected 2-6 have the capability to be as potent as any NL lineup. And at some point we’re going to add Niewenhius who, by his very presence, gritty style and multi-tools on both sides of the ball, is going to make this lineup even stronger.

By: Richie

Richie — Sun, 04 Mar 2012 00:12:21 +0000

The Mets will not win 70 games …. when all is said and done, whether it be players who are traded away (i.e., Dickey, Wright, Francisco, Rauch, etc.) or players who get injured — which is an annual event — the team you used in the analysis will not be the team the Mets go to war with over the 162 game season.

I think you did a great job by the way …. just trying to be realistic. Decent lineup, horrible starting pitching, even worse bullpen despite the makeover,horrendous bench and a defensive team that will be botching plays all year (Murphy at 2B, Duda in RF, Thole at C) ….. not exactly strong up the middle.

By: Alex in CT

Alex in CT — Sat, 03 Mar 2012 23:57:02 +0000

Nice job here, but I think a lot of these projections are selling the Mets short. Adding Ike Davis and Johan Santana is the same as adding a solid #1 or 2 pitcher and a 35 HR slugger. Duda could be as good as Santon was last season. Improved bullpen will make a nice impact. 85 wins I’d say.

By: XtreemIcon

XtreemIcon — Sat, 03 Mar 2012 22:51:01 +0000

If they were predicting an injury, Murph would be projected for far less than 42. Seems like a projection for a backup.

By: Nicholas Pugliese

Nicholas Pugliese — Sat, 03 Mar 2012 22:26:24 +0000

They were just accounting for Murphy’s inevitable injury

By: XtreemIcon

XtreemIcon — Sat, 03 Mar 2012 22:17:32 +0000

Zips thinks Turner will beat out Murphy at 2B. But all the numbers seem to be right around where most people peg them.