Mar
3
2012

On Paper How Bad are the 2012 Mets Really?

An article by Former Writers

Earlier in the off-season Ted Berg did the work to show the Mets are capable of winning 94 games if everything possible broke right. However, that never happens.

I decided I wanted to take a more realistic approach to the statistics and look at what level of performance we can expect from the Mets in 2012 based on Pythagorean record.

I decided to use six different projection systems to come up with this total. The Pecota, Marcel, Davenport, and Cairo projected standings are all easily accessible on the internet, but the Bill James and “Projected Stats” took a bit of calculating.

The “Projected Stats” system is a combination of ZiPS, RotoChamp, and Steamer. This puts a bit more weight on the other five projections, but based off pedigree I felt it made the most sense.

In order to calculate the Mets 2012 Pythagorean record I needed to first figure out the projected runs scored and runs allowed by the team according to those three statistical projection systems. The calculations for how I got these numbers can be seen in the two tables below.

Runs Scored:


Player	ZiPS	RotoChamp	Steamer	AVG.
Total	632	637	622	630.3
David Wright	76	86	77	79.7
Ike Davis	47	80	59	62
Jason Bay	58	61	64	61
Lucas Duda	57	74	69	66.7
Daniel Murphy	42	62	75	59.7
Scott Hairston	32	19	27	26
Andres Torres	60	66	77	67.7
Josh Thole	36	46	49	43.7
Justin Turner	59	47	40	48.7
Ruben Tejada	55	52	52	53
Ronny Cedeno	44	21	17	27.3
Mike Nickeas	15	9 (Fans)	14	12.7
Josh Satin/Mike Baxter/Satin	51	14	2	22.3

Runs Allowed:


Player	ZiPS	RotoChamp	Steamer	AVG.
Projected over 1,458 IP	632	637	686	652
Mike Pelfrey	88	100	99	96
Dillon Gee	83	77	82	81
R.A. Dickey	75	78	94	82
Jon Niese	73	72	82	76
Johan Santana	36	61	64	54
Pedro Beato	32	31	15	26
Bobby Parnell	30	24	24	26
Ramon Ramirez	25	19	24	23
Jon Rauch	24	26	26	25
Frank Francisco	17	20	19	19
Tim Byrdak	15	24	19	19
D.J. Carrasco	39	51	18	36
Total	537	583	566	563

Now that I had all the numbers I needed I could calculate all of the winning percentages and projected records.

Drum roll please…


System	Runs Scored	Runs Against	Winning %	Pythagorean Record
Average	652	687	.476	77-85
Projected Stats	634	652	.487	79-83
Pecota	714	741	.483	78-84
Marcel	630	680	.465	75-87
Davenport	649	689	.473	77-85
Cairo	669	717	.468	76-86
Bill James	617	643	.481	78-84

*Note* I added in 14 runs scored to the “Projected Stats” and Bill James totals since the average number of runs scored by Mets’ pitchers over the last five years is 13.6, which was not in their calculations. Bill James also had no projections for Mike Nickeas or Josh Satin/Mike Baxter so I used the average “Projected Stats” for their numbers.

There you have it a 77-85 team. Ironically that is the same record the Mets finished with last year. Well, those are not the projections I was hoping for, but all the systems are pretty consistent with their projected records.

In the “Projected Stats” group ZiPS and RotoChamp had the Mets going 81-81, which is the most optimistic of all the projections and Steamer had the Mets going 74-88, the most pessimistic of all the projections.

I felt the projections were a little harsh on Ike Davis, Lucas Duda, and R.A. Dickey but all together even if I swapped in my own projections for those three players we are still talking about a team just on the cusp of .500 ball.

Compared to the vibe from the fans and the media, however, a .500 team actually sounds like a welcome outcome right about now. It would be an improvement from last year, but that really isn’t saying much.

These numbers are what they are and I don’t think anyone is really shocked to see the Mets are a below .500 on paper, but if the team can adopt Terry Collin’s fiery personality the way the New York Rangers have adopted John Tortorealla’s personality (sorry had to mention my Rangers in there somewhere) it isn’t a crazy thought to see a young team with something to prove play a little over their head. I am not suggesting a league leading record like the Rangers, but a 83-79 record isn’t completely out of reach based off these projections.

The fact that I would be happy with that 83-79 record might speak more words than anything.

About the Author: Former Writers

14 Comments + Add Comment

XtreemIcon March 3, 2012 at 5:17 pm

Zips thinks Turner will beat out Murphy at 2B. But all the numbers seem to be right around where most people peg them.
- Nicholas Pugliese March 3, 2012 at 5:26 pm
  
  They were just accounting for Murphy’s inevitable injury
  - XtreemIcon March 3, 2012 at 5:51 pm
    
    If they were predicting an injury, Murph would be projected for far less than 42. Seems like a projection for a backup.
Alex in CT March 3, 2012 at 6:57 pm

Nice job here, but I think a lot of these projections are selling the Mets short. Adding Ike Davis and Johan Santana is the same as adding a solid #1 or 2 pitcher and a 35 HR slugger. Duda could be as good as Santon was last season. Improved bullpen will make a nice impact. 85 wins I’d say.
Richie March 3, 2012 at 7:12 pm

The Mets will not win 70 games …. when all is said and done, whether it be players who are traded away (i.e., Dickey, Wright, Francisco, Rauch, etc.) or players who get injured — which is an annual event — the team you used in the analysis will not be the team the Mets go to war with over the 162 game season.

I think you did a great job by the way …. just trying to be realistic. Decent lineup, horrible starting pitching, even worse bullpen despite the makeover,horrendous bench and a defensive team that will be botching plays all year (Murphy at 2B, Duda in RF, Thole at C) ….. not exactly strong up the middle.
- LongTimeFan March 3, 2012 at 7:21 pm
  
  I disagree. I see good offense, above average pen, average starting pitching, gritty, hungry roster and manager, and some of our quality prospects make their debut.
LongTimeFan March 3, 2012 at 7:12 pm

People underestimate this team. I can see 85-88 wins if key players stay healthy for majority of season. I think some of the perception and negativity stems from a lack of very dynamic, multi-tooled players on both sides of the ball such as a Justin Upton. Torres and Tejada will have to step up to give us stolen base and solid OBP. But our projected 2-6 have the capability to be as potent as any NL lineup. And at some point we’re going to add Niewenhius who, by his very presence, gritty style and multi-tools on both sides of the ball, is going to make this lineup even stronger.
METS GEEK March 3, 2012 at 9:16 pm

To :Long Time Fan.. U have to be the most optimistic person ever.
I want to go to Vegas with you !
theonlymaskman March 4, 2012 at 8:46 am

Let’s see now, that’s an idealistic calculation of 77-85. However, reality is such that unexpected things happen, injuries occur and the idealistic calculation is never actually realized. So 62-100 is not that far away from 77-85. Already there are questions about Ike. What if a problem occurs with Santana’s recovery? Just about every position has a question associated with it. This team could very well set a new all-time low for its final record. It is not out of the realm of possibility.
Kay March 4, 2012 at 9:30 am

Remember when, on paper, they were suppose to win it all?
met fan March 4, 2012 at 10:00 am

What is the projection if Wright is traded at the deadline for prospects? And I expect a starter might be traded at this time also (Pelfrey?, if he’s pitching well?) ?
- Richie March 4, 2012 at 10:39 am
  
  Exactly. Wright is already hurt. Hairston — while a bench player — is hurt too which raises even more questions on a terrible bench. Yippie Pelfrey is a waste of space and I bet Dickey is out the door before the trading deadline.
  
  I will hold to “the Mets will not win 70 games” comment hoping I am wrong … but I really think a win total in the 60′s would be likely.
- Joey D. March 4, 2012 at 5:26 pm
  
  Oh, so true. One can throw projections out the window due to unanticipated injury but when could it have even been said about throwing out projections due to unanticipated actions by ownership in the name of “rebuilding”?
  
  I also believe this team could be much better than predicted (and could have been much better than that if it wasn’t both dismantled and patched up so little in return).
  
  No calculations based on projection systems needed – we all know it depends upon the young pitchers and Santana’s return necessitating less use of the bullpen which has added at least two quality relievers (Rauch is not of quality unless he proves otherwise) and the power becoming rejuvenated due to Cit Field.
  
  The big problem is also the division they are – so many strong teams. What we also need is for each of them to fight among themselves so the Mets can sneak up to at least a possible wildcard play-in berth.
  
  Everything has to go right for this to happen. So I think the Mets could go from 73 to 87 games, the higher the number being the better the pitching and defense is. If two of three of our young starters and Rauch falter, look for it to be 73. And f Ike Davis gets caught up with the Valley disease and the Wilpons rid themselves of Wright and/or Santana, it might be tough to even crack 65.
John March 10, 2012 at 5:28 pm

How did you get the Steamer projections for runs allowed? The best I could get out of their spreadsheet was ERA/9*IP, and that’s just earned runs.

I’m interested because from what I can tell the Steamer projections are excellent for pitchers but their spreadsheet leaves something to be desired. The innings and games started don’t add up to reasonable numbers. The Rangers are projected to pitch 1170 innings, while the Dodgers pitch 1566.

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