9
2012
New Mets Closer Has A Few Troubling Trends Worth Noting
An article by 
Columnist John Harper of the Daily News hits on one of the main concerns about the Mets new closer Frank Francisco who does not hold runners on well.
Terry Collins is well aware of the problem and says it’s “because they know Frankie doesn’t throw over.”
“It’s something we’re working on,” Collins said.
Obviously this is a huge concern, especially for an end-game reliever – who will be frequently called into a game with runners already on base.
Base-stealers were successful in 13 of 14 attempts against Francisco last season, and over the last four seasons base-stealers were 33-for-36 against Francisco.
Apparently, Francisco’s problems are well known. Harper writes:
A few phone calls to scouts confirmed that its no secret around baseball. Teams run on Francisco at first opportunity, and they bunt on him at times too, believing he’s not comfortable making throws — especially shorter ones — to bases. “It’s pretty common knowledge,” said one scout.
Meanwhile, a player who played against Francisco in the American League said “everybody knew” that the reliever has had trouble making throws.
Compounding the issue is something else which Harper did not include in his article, but I thought was worth mentioning…
In 70 career save opportunities, Francisco has 21 blown saves. That adds up to a very disconcerting 70% conversion rate for his career.
More troubling than that is his four-year decline in opposing OPS:
- 2008 – .634 OPS
- 2009 – .639 OPS
- 2010 – .681 OPS
- 2011 – .721 OPS
Francisco’s strikeout rate, which is still good, has also been in a 4-year decline. These are not exactly the kinds of trends you want to see from a player who just signed a two-year, $12 million dollar deal to be your closer.
This could all mean something or it could mean nothing at all, but it certainly bears watching.
About the Author: Joe DeCaro
I'm a lifelong Mets fan who loves writing and talking about the Amazins' 24/7. From the Miracle in 1969 to the magic of 1986, and even the near misses in '73 and '00, I've experienced it all - the highs and the lows. I started Mets Merized Online in 2005 to feed my addiction. Follow me on Twitter @metsmerized.
104 Comments + Add Comment
Recent Comments
- Metsie: on Keep Daniel Murphy In The Leadoff Spot: Yes it does...Get stronger my young friend! You...
- Matt Mosher: on Can The Mets Turn This Sinking Ship Around Before It’s Too Late: It's not optimism, its being delusional. Time...
- Ron: on Choo Could Be Impact Outfielder For Mets In 2014, But Would Cost A Pick: Gomez was also signed by the Mets...
- Shea4ever: on Can The Mets Turn This Sinking Ship Around Before It’s Too Late: Haha, I agree... Do I think Wright...
- Jimmy Pernil: on Can The Mets Turn This Sinking Ship Around Before It’s Too Late: The 2013 season was flushed down the...
MMO Mets Chat
Need Tickets To The Mets Game?
Check Out These Great MLB Links!
Photographs From Gordon Donovan
5372 Fans Follow Us On Twitter!
1269 Fans Like Us On Facebook!
2341 Fans Read Our Feed!
1702 Fans Subscribe via Daily Email!
I wasn’t aware how poorly his record was at holding on runners. Definitely something worthy of keeping an eye on. I’d though would like to know what percentage of those that wound up stealing on him came around to score?
I thought you were going to talk about his tendency to throw large metal objects at fans…
Is this any news??? This guy has lost the closer job EVERYWHERE he’s been for a reason, it’s not only the runners, it’s HIM the problem overall.. but hey, sandy alderson signed him, he’s a genius and therefore he had a GOOD DAY and nothing bad can be said about sandy…(Roll eyes)
$6 million a year for this guy is purely ridiculous, but, sandy needed to apeace his legion of sabergoons and acted way before the market hit for closers and signed this guy and rauch for a whooping $15 million between the 2… good luck this year…
Close game in the 9th + Francisco can’t hold any runners on + Thole can’t throw them out = 12 million for 2 years.
Guess not holding runners on doesn’t figure into Sandy’s sabermetric decision making
Just for measurements sake.
KRod since 2007
42/47
Last year 11/12
What in the world are you talking about? What does this have to do with saber? And should I point out that $6MM for Francisco in 2012, is better than $17MM for K-Rod? I wasn’t knocking the signing, just pointing out a few concerns.
You didn’t like the signing if i recall correctly, right? So why get on Alex?
Maybe Sandy did use some kind of stupid saber stat as a reference, I don’t know but common sense tells you that 12 million for 2 years for this guy makes no sense. That money should’ve been put towards starting pitching.
And you can’t compare this and the K-Rod signing because K-Rod and Putz were both acquired to fill a need at THAT TIME – which was right after the 2008 collapse and if i remember correctly most people were happy Omar made that move at the time, I know I was, and I also thought they got K-Rod at a good price at the time as well.
Yes, as I’ve written before, I thought spending $18-$20 million of the very little they had on the bullpen was not an equitable decision in light of other areas that also needed attention like catcher and another starter.
But my problem with Alex’s comment was this and maybe you can explain what it means:
“$6 million a year for this guy is purely ridiculous, but, sandy needed to apeace his legion of sabergoons.”
I’m pretty certain that before this signing, advocates of advanced metrics weren’t picketing outside Citi Field for Alderson to sign Francisco to appease them.
Also, $6 million for a free agent closer might be the lowest figure I’ve seen for a closer in the last five years.
So what is his argument, that he doesn’t like this signing because he perceives it was done to appease a subdivision of the fanbase? Or because he thinks $6 million is a lot of money for a closer?
And to that end, that is why I brought up K-Rod who we all liked at the time, but I’m sure nobody would call him a bargain at $17MM had he been kept and the option vested.
Wouldn’t you agree?
There is too much common sense in your answer, Joe.
no it’s not that it’s just that you agree with it. Make the distinction please.
I wasn’t going to give a response and leave it at that but your arrogant assertion of Joe’s response as a fact instead of liking it because you agree with it will prompt me to respond to Joe further.
When the K-Rod deal was made I’m sure Omar had in mind the extra dollars being made due to the Mets being in contention (Back in 2009), making the post season and also banking on a continuation of contending and him being around for some seasons afterwards too.
That’s just my opinion but i’m sure the thinking was more along those lines AT THAT TIME – obviously we now know that injuries pretty much sidetracked all of that and then it was one thing after another off the field.
I think if the Mets did continue on that road of being in contention every year we would have probably still thought the vesting option of 17 mill was a lot of money but the Mets would have been able to deal with it.
But that did not happen and that’s why you can’t compare the 2 scenarios. The Frank Francisco move was just STUPID when this team needed starting pitching but then now we’re getting into what guides Sandy’s moves, the way he operates, etc. and that’s another story that is covered here on a daily basis.
What SP would you have signed with his 6M and whose spot would you have taken?
Your first thought was the correct one. Should have just passed my comment by. But as usual, you just cannot seem to help yourself.
‘I wasn’t going to give a response and leave it at that but your arrogant assertion of Joe’s response as a fact instead of liking it because you agree with it will prompt me to respond to Joe further.’
LOL….you’ve got to be kidding me.
If you were honest, you’d just admit it wasn’t the way I phrased my response that bothered you, it was that I agreed with Joe 100%. And in the world according to Bayonne, we just can’t have that…..
i think it’s you that cannot help yourself. You’re the one that likes to follow my comments (and others) with one sentence phrases that reflect how you feel about a response instead of providing a response. And it wastes everybody’s time when you do that and pushes relevant comments back in the ‘recent comments’ section.
Again you’re as arrogant as the next person so don’t think you’re not. I could care less if you agree with Joe or not but if you’re gonna come across saying something as fact and that point directly contradicts mine then i’m going to respond accordingly – not just waste time with a one sentence retort about how u feel about the response – which is what you waste everybody’s time with a lot.
BaYawwwwwwnnnn.. ZZZZZzzzz…..
I’m getting drowsy. My eye lids are getting heavy. Zzzzzz.
Keep it up, Bayonne.
Woohoo! Bayawn back into mid-season form! (And yes, I broke your ONE sentence response RULE)
More internet tough guy antics in 3, 2…
I’m thinking that Bayawn moniker is something worth trademarking…
SRT is as welcome to her opinion as anyone else.
Stop trying to give her a hard time simply because she doesn’t need anyone else to think for her.
She’s an adult who can think for herself.
I purposely try and avoid responding to any direct comment this guy makes b/c of past problems.
So this time, Joe types a well thought out response, I agree and he comes after me.
Handwriting on the wall there.
That’s why I say it’s not about baseball with some here, it’s about something else entirely.
Shake it off. Oh yeah no need to cause your used to it by now.
So are we all.
A very large part of being a really good GM requires that you be able to make moves that don’t always negatively affect future teams. Once in a while sure, of course, especially when there is a great opportunity or a perfect fit but to use that as your basic plan is always going to result in the well running dry.
Eventually you just have too many weak spots and because your options are so limited due to running the farm into the ground you convince yourself that signing Zeile, Appier, Cedeno, Weathers and bringing in Alomar, Burnitz and Vaughn is going to right the ship or that Castillo, Perez and Bay will throw you a life preserver but all those guys were signed because there was no one else. No one decent in the farm, no one in the farm to trade for anyone decent and only one way to get anyone who could be decent. Run up the credit card one more time and hope for the best.
Well enjoy because the bill’s come due and now we’re all paying the price.
Agreed.
Amen.
I think he did the usual mistake of calling Moneyballers Sabergoons!
This was a moneyball signing. Not so much a Saber Signing!
A Saber signing usually has some statistical goodness to hang it’s hat on!
This seems more like Pure Moneyballin!
Who can we Afford? (Make a list!)
Who is the best out of that group? (Find some saber to justify it!)
Sign Him!
Metsie — C’mon. You’re adding baloney. Nothing more.
Yeah what part of that isn’t true?
Metsie — Go through every line of it. Most of your stuff is right on. Not this one. It has assumptions masked as facts and says more about Metsie than about Sandy.
Des do you even know what I said?
Cause it doesn’t appear to be the case!
Went right over your head!
Francisco was not the best Closer on the market!
He was signed because he fit the budget and the stats were good enough to make him a buy!
Thats Moneyball!
Not Saber!
Thats all I said and if you didn’t get that it would appear to be your problem not mine.
I didn’t care about the money one bit but the deal was at the top level for a closer as was Wagner’s.
I wasn’t happy with forking over yet another # 1 draft choice after having already forked over one for Wagner and another for Alou and I know quite a few people that shared that concern especially after having traded away two #1′s and a #2 in Humber, Mulvey and Milledge as well as recently giving away 4 other 2nd rounders (Pedro, Floyd, Weathers and Cedeno) and two 3rd rounders (Beltran and Glavine) and three first rounders (Ventura, Zeile, Appier) in ’99, ’00 and ’01.
The more future assets you use on trying to fix talent shortages in the present the more holes you create in the future. Very similar to a ponzi scheme unraveling because at some point there is nothing left to borrow against and that’s when the whole thing crashes.
It’s the prospect version of a ponzi scheme and will never work unless you have 5-6 outstanding long term All Star types around for 12-15 years each or a continual top talent prospect flow every single year that never dries up which is hard to maintain when your giving up your best picks every single year.
On the other hand everyone inside and outside baseball knew Putz was hurt and had spent quite a bit of time on the DL and minor league rehab assignments in 2008.
How a physical could not have been required to consummate the deal is just beyond me. I mean everyone gets a physical. Even 21 year old Montero got a physical from Seattle and Pineda from the Yanks. Standard operating procedure. Except for us in the zest to get the news to the ticket buying public certain standard formalities were bypassed and that cost us a lot and not just in 2009 either.
Wagner’s two #1 picks probably don’t get sold to save the cost of Putz salary and we still have Joe Smith and possibly Endy as well. God knows we could have used them the last couple years.
Well Joe Sabers may be the culprit!
If they used Sabers to justify his signing it could be they used Sabers that ignored runners on base, Ignored things like holding the runner on and the like!
What does relying on FIP tell you about his ability to hold runners!
Sure he may walk fewer or give up less hits per 9…
But FIP doesn’t seem to look at anything related to how many of them score!
The problem with most Sabers if they are geared towards specifics and don’t take ALL factors into account!
Now that said there is no proof this signing was a saber based acquisition!
In fact I can find no evidence that ANY of our acquisitions were saber based!
It was all Salary and at 6 Mil per you should be getting a player that can make a throw to 1st base!
Just as looking at OBP assmes the guy wouldn’t be in the MLB if he can’t hit those other Metrics all ASSME that if the guy is in the MLB he should be able to make throws to 1st base!
42/47 KRod
11/12 Krod.
Well something had to be done and I’m not entirely convinced that every pitcher in the free world is lining up to pitch with four first basemen in the starting eight including one behind the plate and I don’t see any of the college relief pitchers we spent high draft choices on making it up here anytime soon so it was either sign whoever we could get to come here or maybe dip into the minors and see if one of our 1B/LF/DH types would like to audition for the position since we always have a surplus at those spots.
Complain all you want but when you wait till the last minute every year frequently what you wind up with is less than ideal. When you have multiple spots you’ve waited until the last minute to fill your ******.
That simple. That’s how you wind up within 5 games of .500 or worse 17 times in 23 years even with the largest payroll in the entire League.
Remember according to the great and powerful Alderson stolen bases aren’t important, in fact they’re just a footnote
isn’t one of those baseball axioms that closers traditionally don’t hold guys on well though? so not just a problem unique to this guy?
I was a bit perplexed by this signing anyway. And I would not be surprised to see him end up as something other than the closer (ramirez just might be the best option out of the bunch).
also entirely possible that someone unespected rises up to take the closer job (beato if not hurt, Parnell unlikely but could happen, someone like that).
Hell, I expect to see some guys in the minors up to help out at some point (Edgin? there are a couple other possibilities too) and depending on how the year goes, might just see them getting a shot at the job.
Just out of curiosity, what is average for closers? How many successful attempts usually happen in the 9th inning?
A Mets nightmare game would be Pelfrey starting and Francisco relieving. In 2011, they combined to allow 42 SB with only 3 CS. That works out to a 6.7 CS%. In other words, just about 1 in 16 runners were caught stealing. Whew.
There’s some interesting numbers out there for him for sure.
He gave up 6/7 HR at home in Toronto and his SLG% was .472 at home compared to .311 at home.
His 1st half slash line was .301 .385 .495 .880
His 2nd half slash line was .188 .220 .323 .543
His stats with
runners in scoring position: .172 .238 .190 .428
men on in general: .189 .240 .267 .506
runner on 2nd: .161 .188 .194 .381
RISP 2/O: .212 .257 .242 .500
Also 9/21 runs given up on the season were in May.
He also only gave up 3 runs from July 22nd on while having a 15 game scoreless streak during that stretch.
Baseball person: You acquired Who? But he can’t throw!
Beane: Thats why we are playing him at 1st Base!
Baseball Person: But he doesn’t play 1st Base!
Beane: We will teach him how to play 1st base!
Baseball Person: Don’t you care that he has a lousy Batting Average and can’t hit?
Beane: Paul do I care?
DePodesta: No you don’t care!
Beane: Why don’t I care?
Depodesta: Because he gets on base!
I saw this movie and read this book! They both ended the same!
These guys lost and won nothing!
Help me out, what does this have to do with Sandy, the Mets, 2012 and Francisco Rodriguez?
The same excuses used there were used here!
He’s cheap, Has the saber metric I like and who cares about all the other crap he is SUPPOSED to be able to do as an MLB player but doesn’t!
This is the methodology we are working under!
What does it have to do with K-Rod?
This thinking is what replaced him with francisco!
I didn’t hear Sandy use any excuses for the signing.
I guess you were not listening then….
The Excuse used was he was CHEAP!
Not Baseball but MONEY!
And there had to be SOME EXCUSE why they picked him over someone else!
There was SOME justification in Sandy’s mind!
If not then it’s an even worse signing than I’m claiming it was!
Can you provide a link where Sandy said that he signed those two closers because they were cheap or because of saber stats?
Ye pick just about any qote about what he got in FA!
They all mentioned his bad finances and the need to not spend much on what he acquired!
Do the work.
Find a quote where Sandy said he signed Francisco and or Rauch because they were cheap and he liked their saber stats.
Your the one who wishes to disprove the point.
So the burden of proof is on you!
Get Cracking kid!
That’s what I thought… nothing.
Again, agree to disagree unless you want to actually go out and provide a link.
No Dude! Pretty much every interview involving Sandy complained about Budget and his ability to spend!
You wish to disprove that then go ahead and make your point and do the work!
But I’m not going to go run ERRANDS for you because your too lazy to make your own damn point!
Prove me wrong if you want and then that will inspire me to put the effort into finding the point that shows YOUR wrong!
That is called having little budget to spend.
You seem to be implying that his mission is to get cheap players simply because they are cheap (that is, he wants to, not has to).
If you really believe that his goal and idea of “winning” is to get cheap moneyball players and not give a crap about if the team wins or loses, you have fun with it.
Of course ignoring the fact that in Oakland during their run they had one of the higher payrolls and Sandy only slashed after the new owners demanded he slash.
Yeah no parralell here right?
Yet, based on history Sandy when he has money spends it. Based on history when the Wilpons have money they spend it. So how much of Sandy’s philosophy is actually “moneyball” to start with?
Well what he may do later has no bearing and does not mean what he is doing now is not moneyball!
A point lost on many of you!
Yep and the way he is dealing with it is called Moneyball!
12 million for 2 years isn’t cheap
I think Sandy made the same mistake we’ve all seen before.
Hoping…. Hoping this guy pitches the same as he did the 2nd half
I wasn’t a big fan of the signing at the time, and I’m still not. I think this is going to be one of the signings that bites us in the behind. Of course, Mets always seem to have problems with closers making it “interesting”, at least the past while they have. We will just have to see how he does as Spring Training nears its end, and then think of whether or not he was worth it.
Lets find out how he does in the NL and if he and Rauch even finish the year without getting traded. I still think the reason that both were signed was if they contend then you have a solid pen and if you do not then you have 2 trading chips.
Rauch is a 3 Month Rental and not going to get you anything near a prospect in return!
Francisco gets 6.5 Mil next year and hasn’t held a closing job he has been given yet!
You got two NOTHINGS for a Closer who was considered one of the best in the MLB so really what are you expecting to get from these two guys who at BEST would have been an even return for a guy like K-Rod!
Price and option were a factor in what you got for Krod. If you don’t agree then again we will agree to disagree.
A releative skill of the player your selling is also a factor!
If he isn’t a player who can put the recieving team closer to ensuring a playoff spot there is no deal to make!
Uh yeah well that’s obvious but you got a decent chance that these guys will have value in to contending teams. Guys with lesser ability than these two are auctioned off every year at the deadline.
Salary dumps are about money. Not expecting top tier talent back.
CORRECT! Not about baseball and improving your team!
About cutting Salary and hoping to fill in with a cheaper guy who doesn’t cost you as much on the baseball side of things!
Minimizing the BASEBALL hit to get a Financial gain!
freeing up payroll room though is improving the team
Never gonna get that through here.
It’s about flexibility which is something Sandy said from day one. Flexibility in the minors, majors, current payroll, future payroll…
What good is Flexability if you don’t use it?
unused flexability is as wasted as money spent on a team that doesn’t win!
So as soon as you acquire flexibility you should lose it?
Is it good to have more money in your pocket if you do not intend to spend it?
Flexability is useless until it is used!
first you get to the point where you are able to cover all your bills each month without running up a balance on your credit cards. then you can worry about what to do with the extra money left over.
not unless it is spent on improvement as opposed to filling all the holes you made with lesser talent!
We’ve been specializing in salary dumps for 20 years now.
Coleman, Bonilla (first time around) Ventura, Zeile, Appier, Cedeno, Weathers, D’Amico, Estes, Kaz, Wagner, even Castillo and Perez were kept around on the 25 just in case they could be dumped for salary relief.
So your saying we are just making the same mistakes again?
and most likely you will get a couple of A ball guys with potential back to help beef up the system, and give more flexibility to make other tradeds (using prospects). How good they are depends on how well the RP is doing at the time.
It is a ST deal. and for relatively little money (especailly for a FA closer). And I fully well expect someone else to rise up and seize the job by the end of the year.
And I really can’t see how this deal (and rauch for 1 year) can possibly be hamstringing the team in any way. Just not big enough $ or long enough to inflict any LT pain. And they do have flexibility with them both (how to use them, and possibly trading).
FF can be slid down to a set up man if someone better steps up to become closer. That was never happening with a guy Like K Rod.
But, if Francisco manages to have a respectable year as a closer and hangs onto the job, they got a good deal.
I agree with much of what you said here stick. When you look at KRod not sniffing anything close to the $17M he was due to make and in fact not even being able to sign with anyone as a closer and had to fall back to accepting arbitration because of it and become a setup man once again. That speaks to what teams were willing to pay for a closer.
This. Which is why I just couldn’t get all bent out of shape with signing him as closer for just this year. They had to bring at least one in for the job. They’ve got a few who can compete, if they step it up.
I actually see Mejia taking the closers roll down the line. It is in their best interest to roll with a short term contract in the closers spot. I still would have liked to have gotten Nathan, but I’m not going to be crying too much over this signing.
Yeah, some would have complained with Nathan too. Once Texas wanted to make Nathan the full-time closer I think that deal was sealed.
Some people enjoy the complaining.
And some would complain about anyone else because they didn’t spend the money and keep KRod.
Of course keeping Krod at 17M for this season would be the definition of insanity IMO>
My opinion as well.
[...] An article by Joe D 79 Comments [...]
Where are all the articles on other closers not holding runners on? Again more lack of research by the mainstream.
Paplebon 37/39 since 2005.
Krod 42/47
Marmol 33/36
Because the Mets are the perceived laughing stock and it is easy to kick someone when they are down.
and the beauty is, you get that on team centered blogs. no need to even go to other team sites to find people to do the kicking (no matter how silly the reason).
What are you saying here? That Paplebon held 37 of 39 on or the other way around?
that 37 people stole bases in 39 attempts.
Talk about bad English.
37 successful steals on 39 attempts.
What I still would be curios to see is how many of those wound up scoring which is really what matters in the end at least where I am concerned.
I am not sure there is a stat for that without going game by game.
I do know that he had 3 runs scored last season with a runner on 2nd and he gave up 10 steals of 2nd.
Other way around. All of these closers seem to either not care about the runner stealing 2nd or have issues with them stealing.
I remember watching Krod plenty of times just ignore the runner on 1B.
Thanks, guys.
So the hoopla about Francisco must be b/c his throws over to 1st – or bunts he fields, are more b/c of horrible throws, then him just ignoring the runners. If he knows he’s got a throwing problem, that might be more the reason for not holding runners on.
So they must be working on his throws being more accurate.
That was my impression that the throws were a little wild.
All those stats are useless unless accompanied by how many baserunners total!
Sure 39/40 sounds bad compared to 38/40 but if 39/40 guy had 90 baserunners and 38/40 guy had 45 the guy with fewer stolen bases per attempt is much worse at holding runners on than the guy who had a lower attempt rate per runner!
In other news but somewhat related, Thole gunned Heyward down trying to steal 3rd after hitting a double.
So we won’t worry about Francisco keeping ‘em close. Thole will get them.
Joe D, you should thank me… as soon as i mention sandy alderson, sabergoons, sabermetrics, david wright is a choker in an article it get TONS of comments…
the CORE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
i believe the purpose of the signing was,getting some trade prospects for the trade deadline nothing more.another way to accumulate draft picks at the expense of the MLB roster.
I believe that is part of the thinking too, and it should be because if we never get to the point where we aren’t held hostage to just whoever happens to be available every year we’re never going to be able to compete in our own division.
You just cant build a real team by waiting until the off season to fix 8-10 spots on the roster every year and expect it work out the best way possible.
That kind of thinking is the reason behind us being out of the running for a post season berth 17 times in the last 23 years.
[...] feeling I have. I don’t feel he is the right choice to be the Mets closer. Joe hit on some of his troubling trends. He could very well may be the solution for them, byt I just don’t think he is. I believe Mike [...]