29
2012
Mets Announce Valdespin Among Six Players Optioned To Minors
An article by Hojo's Mojo
Confirming what was speculated earlier, the Mets have officially announced that they have optioned 2B/SS Jordanny Valdespin to the minor leagues along with OF Adam Loewen. LHP Garrett Olson, C Lucas May, C Rob Johnson and OF Matt den Dekker. All are expected to start the season with Triple-A Buffalo.
Of the group, only Valdespin spent time with the Bisons last season. The infielder was promoted to the Herd on August 10 and hit .280 (30-107) with two home runs, nine RBI and four stolen bases in 27 games with Buffalo. In 107 games with Double-A Binghamton, the 24-year old hit .297 (120-404) with 24 doubles, 15 home runs, 51 RBI and 33 stolen bases.
Yesterday, Sandy Alderson said Valdespin would play a variety of positions at Buffalo.
“He’s got some real talent. He can do a lot of things that some of our other players cannot. He can run. He can play any of the positions up the middle so he has great versatility. He can be a very valuable player to us. I don’t think he’s going to be on the club immediately. But, I do think he does have a future with us and it could be in more than a utility role.
Loewen spent the majority of the 2011 season with Toronto’s Triple-A affiliate in Las Vegas and hit .306 (159-520) with 46 doubles, 17 home runs and 85 RBI in 134 games. His 46 doubles were the sixth most in all of minor league baseball last season. He had his contract selected on September 7 and played in 14 games with the Blue Jays, hitting .188 (6-32) with a home run and four RBI.
Olson split last season between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Indianapolis Indians. The southpaw made the Pirates’ 2011 Opening Day roster and was 1-1 with a 2.08 ERA in four relief appearances before being designated for assignment. He was 4-3 with a 3.05 ERA in 24 games and 15 starts for Indianapolis.
May split last season between Triple-A Omaha and Reno of the Pacific Coast League. In 77 games combined, the catcher hit .238 (59-248) with 10 home runs and 44RBI.
Johnson played 67 games with the San Diego Padres in 2011 and hit .190 (34-179) with three home runs and 16RBI. Johnson has 228 big league games to his credit, spending parts of four seasons in Seattle, 2007-2010.
den Dekker was the Mets 5th round pick in the 2010 draft and is entering his third season as a professional. He split last season between Single-A St. Lucie and Double-A Binghamton and hit .265 (143-539) with 17 home runs, 68 RBI and 24 stolen bases in 139 games.
Earlier today, the Mets told C Mike Nickeas and OF Mike Baxter they had made the opening day roster.
Original Post 3:30 PM
Adam Rubin of ESPN says Mike Baxter, Mike Nickeas and Daniel Herrera ”remain solid” for the Opening Day roster, with the only potential disruption a late, late pickup by the organization or Tim Byrdak being ready for next Thursday’s season opener against the Atlanta Braves at Citi Field.
He also adds that “unofficially”, catchers Rob Johnson and Lucas May, left-hander Garrett Olson, infielderJordany Valdespin and outfielders Adam Loewen and Matt den Dekker have been told they are headed to minor league camp.
It’s only a matter of days now. There’s not much in the rumor mill seriously tying the Mets to any significant add-ons via free agency. Look’s like they’re good to go.
About the Author: Rob Johnson
179 Comments + Add Comment
NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 25 | 18 | .581 | - |
| Nationals | 23 | 21 | .523 | 2.5 |
| Phillies | 21 | 23 | .477 | 4.5 |
| Mets | 17 | 24 | .415 | 7.0 |
| Marlins | 12 | 32 | .273 | 13.5 |
Last updated: 05/19/2013
Recent Comments
- Al: on Mets Sign RHP David Aardsma To Minors Deal: Rangers DFA Derek Low lets sign him
- Tommy: on Reds vs Mets: Marcum Takes The Hill, Ankiel Batting Second, Duda Cleanup: The only reason why they are both...
- Coach Mike: on Reds vs Mets: Marcum Takes The Hill, Ankiel Batting Second, Duda Cleanup: Big start for Marcum. If he can...
- Tommy: on Reds vs Mets: Marcum Takes The Hill, Ankiel Batting Second, Duda Cleanup: I agree! Drives me up a...
- Jimmy Pernil: on Sacking Terry Collins Now Would Be Unfair: Rosario's father had a connect at the...
MMO Mets Chat
Need Tickets To The Mets Game?
Check Out These Great MLB Links!
Photographs From Gordon Donovan
5365 Fans Follow Us On Twitter!
1269 Fans Like Us On Facebook!
2341 Fans Read Our Feed!
1702 Fans Subscribe via Daily Email!
Oh, boy! This is exciting. Just a week away from Team Scrubs taking the field.
Say hello to 1979 all over again, boys and girls!
Do you live in Pittsburgh or Houston or something?
Yes, “something”.
‘Don’t ya love it – when a plan – comes together?’
Oh boy…..going to be interesting.
Not the kind of team I expected, but I’ll enjoy watching every game.
Wow, Baxter, Nickeas, and Herrera, three MVP candidates no doubt! Yep, definitely 1979 all over again, except this time we actually reach the 100 loss mark.
That’s true. Every year it is some teams 5th OF, lefty specialist, or BU catcher that win the MVP!
that was humor BTW> have to make that disclaimer around here now.
Point is, the author actually thinks we are going to believe that having these 3 guys makes this team “good to go?” Met fans are smarter than that, these guys are garbage.
They’re better than Juan Pierre and Podsednik though. So that clearly means the Mets will win the division.
And they were adding Hu as well but he failed his physical so no go.
Toozan, you read too much into that. I wasn’t trying to infer the Mets were good only that their roster was pretty much decided. Sorry if I did a bad job of communicating that.
Brian Schneider! I wish we were as classy and rich as the Phillies and had the money to pay Brian Schneider to back up for Thole!
Well, since we are in the rebuilding stage we must recognize and accept that for the next three or four seasons the Mets are going to be sacrificed because the roster spots for our forthcoming “Youth Of America” are currently being filled temorarily and not for the long-term. Then when filled with those from the farm, we must expect one or two years before they really start making their marks.
Another reason for waiting at least until 2016 is because there will be (hopefully) five emerging star players eligible for free agency by that time (Duda, Davis, Neise, Murphy, Parnell etc.) so other free agents are not going to consider bids from a club committed (at this moment) to a $60 or $70 million payroll – the money won’t be there since they most likely would want to retain what they have.
Fine, but the author of this article shouldn’t say “we’re good to go” implying that this team is actually good. We all know, this team in its current state, is one of the worst in baseball.
I read that statement as in ‘the 25 man roster is now set’ to go north. Not that they’ve got an all star team ready to go.
and they are not one of the worst in baseball.
He said we are good to go he didn’t actually say where we were going did he?
Most positions on the team shouldn’t be filled for years to come ever.
Only your 4,5 or 6 true core guys plus an in his prime long term FA signing like a Beltran or Santana.
The plan should be for the other guys to be an ever revolving mix of type B FA’s, prospects who won jobs, journeymen relievers or bench guys a book mark starter and a non tender or so all on deals between 1-3 year deals.
A hungry team is a healthy team and too many guys on their last contract for the next 4-5 years is anything but a hungry team. Just look at Delgado’s interview when he essentially said the Mets are so much better they get bored out there.
Nipped at the wire by a younger and hungrier team too.
Won’t take 4-5 years either, not even close. 2014 will have a credible realistically potential pennant winner even if it’s not till mid season when everyone jells like the Phillies did in 2006 although if Duda, Davis, Murphy, Niese and Parnell “emerge as star players” it’ll be a lot quicker. In that case 2013 is in play.
That’s only a year away.
2 years (actually, 2014 is 3) is a really, really long time in MLB. Teams can change radically, up or down, depending on how a few guys develop and with a couple of key moves.
Rebuilding stage? The Mets front office has adamantly denied that they are rebuilding or that there are any money issues affecting their ability to add players. They feel that this team has the talent to make the playoffs. Are you calling them liars?
when does this supposed flood of new FAs (the guys teams don’t want to spend 100K to send to the minors) happen? At this point, that is about the only unknown.
been wondering the same thing myself. Was hoping MLBTR would have a running list of these players. Also are we cutting any players like that?
I thought it was 5 days before opening day. Or start of the season. Season already started for a couple of teams so I don’t know if it’s across the board, or individual opening dates.
Article XX(B) free agents signing minor league contracts who are not added to the Opening Day roster or unconditionally released 5 days prior to Opening Day shall receive an additional $100,000 retention bonus and the right to opt out on June 1.
March 30th is the deadline to know if you made the 25 man or not and even if you don’t and send them down then you owe them the 100K and they can opt out on June 1st so you could basically waste 100K by trying to keep them for 2 months.
I was confused when I kept hearing Olson’s being on the ML roster as the lefty out of the pen. I figured Herrera had gotten injured or something. Even though Olson has had excellent numbers in spring training, I’d take Herrera over Olson to start the season based on that he’s been here before. Not to take anything away from Olson. Definitely keep an eye on Olson, especially if he continues his spring training roll with him into the minors. Can’t have too many lefties…
Want to know how bad it’s becoming?
Was driving home from work and heard a Yankee commercial about single season tickets now on sale. They mentioned about seeing the Yankees play their long-time American Leagues rivals, then added along with some great inter-league games as well. Nothing special about the Mets and the subway series in that promo – they just bunched us in with the rest of the inter-league games.
It’s like Rodney Dangerfield, who threw out the ball for Opening Day 2 (i.e, home game number two) back in 1984 “we don’t get no respect”.
Now on to Pelfrey – hopefully he will get some tonight.
Just a thought and please folks give me some feed back here. I think the Mets would be better served with moving Murph in a trade for more pitching and promote Jordanny Valdespin to play second base Every game I watch Murph around second base I feel badly for him. The guy has a solid bat but is terrible in the field. Murph is truly at risk and a danger to himself out there He is a DH plain and simple. Jordanny would be a solid to good second basemen who has experience at the position and he would hit between 265 to 280 with between 12 to 20 home runs and possibly be capable of driving in 80 rbi from 2nd base. He is also younger and healthier. I think it really is time to do murph a huge favor and move him. What you guys think?
I think Murphy will help more than hurt. But he’s going to have to watch it, for if he starts slumping and has a bad year, his defensive liability will not be enough for him to save his job than others. He has to hit and hit well to stay in the lineup.
Murphy can play a couple of positions on the field and play them well. Unfortunately those two positions are third and first base. He’s not a second baseman but if there’s anything he does, is he leaves it all out on the field in 100% effort, and that may be to a fault to where he’s gotten injured. When I see the numbers you gave on what you think Valdespin could do, I think to what we know Murphy can give us. An average somewhere around .310, 10-15 HR’s, and RBI depending on who’s in front of him and where he’s hitting.
Valdespin, from what I understand from what I’ve read (so if I’m wrong, injure me, don’t kill me) has had behavior problems and effort issues on the field. You can have all the talent in the world, but when it’s applied when he wants it to be applied, it’s useless on a team. Sure, playing in the majors could give him the boost he needs, but for how long? The days of a veteran and/or manager taking him out behind the woodshed and beating the effort into him are long gone. He could turn into another unfortunate case of he can beat anybody on the field, but he couldn’t get past himself.
End of the day, I think Murphy gets moved, eventually. Maybe trade deadline. Maybe offseason. Maybe sometime next year. But eventually. And whichever team gets him will get the better of the trade if he can stay on the field. Does that mean Valdespin moves right in. Maybe. It’s up to him and if he earns it and shows he’s a grown man.
Valdy has got to learn discipline in general, most importantly plate discipline. You don’t make it as a Bengi Molina at 2B.
It really looks like Jordanny has some wonderful talent. The Mets brass aren’t convinced he’s ready at this time. It could happen in a few months or it might take another season, but the kid is a gamer, al long as he keeps his head screwed on right. He’ll be watched closely to see if he’s matured above the shoulders. The concern right now is his plate discipline. He’ll learn that with more play. I do think you’re exaggerating Murphy’s fielding shortcomings. His career Fld% is .984, higher than Tejada’s .973. He’s no star in the field, to be sure, but we have some folks on this site who only see the glass half empty, especially perhaps after they’ve had a few glasses themselves.
That’s kind of one sided though. What is Murphy’s fielding percentage for his career away from 1B? Honestly his days in LF might have even helped that stat.
HIs time in the OF hurt his career Fld%. So too did his time at 3B. Both are under his career Fld%. On the other hand, Murphy was being pushed and pulled in four different ways by insecure field and front office managers. Specifially, Omar and his field managers have more than their share of malfeasance. If he had been given one position, like most other players, his defense at that position would have matured.
Or you could say his fielding percentage is being propped up by his time at 1B? There’s no reason to sugar coat things, we know Murphy is not a great fielder regardless of the position. Partly because the FO has played him in 4 different positions but mostly because Murphy from at 4-22 viewed himself as a hitter and did not put the same amount of work in on defense that he did offense. His interview early in his career where everyone else was telling their position and he said my name is Daniel Murphy and I bat 3rd? speaks to his lack of effort and concern early for defense. He is paying the price for that now but luckily he is a hard worker and now he is putting some of that obvious work ethic from offense into his defensive game as well.
The FO does what the FO wants. Don’t forget that the business of baseball drives the sport of baseball. Murphy’s promo statement is not even a minute consideration to the FO. That’s just grist for fans.
Of course it isn’t. But it does show where his priorities were.
Interesting but it appears Sandy’s one year with Reyes has poisoned his mind. I was listening to his interview on MLBN and they ask him what he has to do to be successful.
#1 first and foremost I got to get on base and score runs.
Not one mention in the entire interview of him talking about getting “hits”, it was all about doing whatever he had to do to get on base. Poor Jose, destroyed and tainted forever.
TR,
Not that I agree with the OBP in general, but for a leadoff hitter it’s really anyway he can get on base so I think Jose might have been talking in terms of a leadoff hitter with the bases clear.
But I don’t think Jose should think in those terms. Not getting on base enough in his early years was something Jose was highly criticized for. He would not be selective at the plate and get the pitcher to work the count in his favor. The only problem was when Jose stopped being so aggressive at the plate and took more pitches, the hits fell off badly. It changed his approach to the game for many didn’t realize his aggressiveness with his speed got him a great deal of doubles and triples – much better than getting a walk. So he was told to go back to doing what made him most comfortable with. The results was a return to his extra base hit ability.
Getting on base being a leadoff hitter depends upon the situation. With the bases clear, getting on base however one could is important if one is more a Punch and Judy hitter like Louis Castillo was. But with runners on, one should not swing foolishly and go for bad pitches, however, a base hit can do more damage than a walk which at best, could move one or two runners up one base and into scoring position. But with a runner on second and an empty base at third, a walk sets up a possible double-play situation. With a hit, the runner usually scores. So with runners on base, if a leadoff hitter gets a pitch to hit, then swing at it. Lay off those just off the strike zone with the bases clear.
Have you read some of the interviews last year of Reyes and Hudgens? They both stressed laying off the pitches that Reyes couldn’t hit well and being aggressive on the ones he could. That IS the Mets new philosophy, it’s not just about walks. It was about making the pitcher come to him and being a hunter when he did. I know Metsie loves to say that OBP is just about walks. Walks are just about walks. OBP is about not making outs. I think Jose really bought into that new system and in return he was able to lay off those pitches that he normally would just pop up or weakly roll over. Why did his BA and OBP spike? Because he was laying off those pitches and pitchers new he was willing to take a walk if he didn’t get them. Would you rather walk Jose Reyes or give him the fastball and hope he doesn’t hit it for more than a single? I am giving him the fastball.
Of course on here it’s bad to think that anything with this current team causes success but I have read and listen to Jose himself say as well as the Mets staff say that Jose bought into the idea and considered it a contribution to his success. Why is it that we blame Sandy and his coaches for everything negative but refuse to give them credit for the individual successes that went right? Do we think that either Jose a) had a career year and is done with that, b) just finally learned on his own to lay off those pitches (a year after having a horrible OBP and mediocre BA) c) bought into the philosophy of his hitting coach and developed into a better offensive player because of it.
From Hudgens directly on his philosophy:
“Hunt your pitch,” he tells his players.
“We want to do damage in the middle of the plate.”
“If he doesn’t give you that pitch? We’re walking to first base.”
“They went from the team third-most prone to swing at a pitch outside the strike zone to the second-least. ”
Think that might have helped Reyes a little?
The emphasis regarding on base percentage shows that, like so many others, it is a stat that over-exaggerates the differences between players as compared to their actual performances on the field.
Point in question. Jose Reyes had a .384 OBP, the eighth highest in the leauge. The major league average was .320. In 600 plate appearances that means a top ten OBP leader like Jose would get on base one more time every four games than the average hitter. That amounts to approximately 38 more times over the course of the season. That’s it. Once every four games or 38 more times over the entire year. So while that 64 point lead appears significant on paper, compared to the average player on the field the differential regarding the ability to get on base is less significant.
Lets expand that to Joey Votto, who led the National League with a .416 OBP. With the same 600 plate appearances that amounts to getting on base 57 more times over the course of the year compared to the average hitter, one more time approximately every two and a half games. Yes, that is significant over the course of the year than the average player. Votto stands out easily. But while that was also 32 points higher than Jose it only mounts to 19 times more over the course of the season, or once every 18 games. So the difference between number one and number eight is also quite minimal
This is NOT to say that getting on base is not important – look at the contribution Votto makes to the Reds. As the league leader, one expects not to be compared to the average hitter. This does point out, however, that the performance differences between those with percentages high enough to round out the top ten and the average hitter, at least last season, were not as vast as the stats made it appears to be.
I disagree that is a huge difference and not only that but because of his better pitch selection he was able to attack the fastball and do more damage. Of course it’s all about sample sizes. There isn’t but 30 hits between a. 250 hitter and a. 300 hitter are we really saying they are not miles apart? Those 30 hits separate HOF and employed.
I tried to follow along with your reasoning, but it’s really faulty logic by you.
There are TWO significant effects that comes from a high OBP. The first and easiest to spot is the walk which leads to runners on base which leads to runs.
But the second which is hard to grasp by many, is letting the pitcher know you wont swing at any pitches off the plate which suddenly gives the hitter better pitches to hit and they usually do.
That is why the greatest sluggers/hitters of all time also had the highest OBP’s of all time. Show me a great hitter, and I’ll show you a great OBP.
There is a third benefit, minor as it may sound, to having hitters take as many walk as the pitcher is willing to GIVE him. And that is it wears a pitcher down and gets his pitch counts up.
Maybe you will understand this Joey, unlike Bayonne who seems to relish his hold on the Dark Ages.
Exactly… that is why the Yankees and Redsox also stress OBP. It’s impact on the opposing pitching staff is tremendous.
that was the cornerstone of the late 90s run for them. Not a big HR hitting team, but they were incredible at just wearing down the pitching, and getting into the soft underbelly of the BP early in the game, and just feasting on them.
by that logic, Jose’s batting title is also irrelevant, since the difference between that and his career norm (.285ish?) is only 1 hit every other week or so.
and since the increase in BA was solely responsible for his increase in OBP, then that rare extra hit means nothing, right?
so who cares if he led the league in BA since it was only a couple hits difference between him and Braun.
And out of those 57 extra OBs of Votto…
19 were due to being Intentionally walked (15) and Hit By a Pitch (4)
Votto also had 129 K vs 110 BB So in essence 129 OB of Votto required the Pitcher’s help, Not so much a good eye because he did strike out more when the pitcher pitched to him than he walked! And when he didn’t get that pitcher’s help he was just as likely (if not more likely) to strike out as get OB on a Walk or HBP. IF he doesn’t swing or get his pitch as many here suggest he should!
Patience at the plate is fine and dandy right up to the point you have 2 strikes on you!
Once you get to two strikes you can’t WAIT for your pitch anymore…All you can look for there is a mistake pitch you can hit!
And if the pitch is close enough to call a strike by the Umpire you can’t sit idle and let the Umpire and Pitcher determine your fate, you must either foul it off or go with the pitch to hit it, not just take it because it is not “Your Pitch” or you think the Umpire will give YOU the benefit of the doubt!
It is THIS that made Tejada and Duda have such great ABs last year. Fouling off pitch after pitch and making the Pitcher throw 20 pitches in a single AB! That does what some propose patience does much more effectively than just taking a3-2 pitch you think the Ump MIGHT call a ball but can’t be sure of!
Now that doesn’t mean you swing at ANYTHING, certainly you do not swing at no way in hell they can be called strike pitches.
But if it is on the black, you have two strikes, your Patient waiting is done! You need to protect the plate, hope to get the pitcher tired so he either throws a mistake to you, give up the walk in clear fashion, or is so tired the guy after you gets what you couldn’t!
All this talk about OBP making you a better hitter is phoey. It does not always get you “YOUR PITCH” in fact if he walks you you got a good chance you won’t see him next AB!
Patience is a strategy right up till you get 2 strikes on you! Taking a pitch on 3-0,1 is not PATIENCE it’s PASSIVITY!
Your looking to walk instead of hit! You can look for your pitch there if you want but the truth is what your most likely to get is a fastball and if you can’t hit a fastball that can be called a strike then your not a good hitter to begin with and walking more really isn’t going to help you hit later on either!
If you read what Hudgens is preaching it does not include taking fastballs down the middle in hitters counts. It’s about hunting your pitch in those counts. Obviously he wouldn’t preach take close pitches with 2 strikes. Also a pitcher knowing that if he doesn’t make a good pitch this guy will take a walk and I will be on the bench? You don’t think that is in the pitchers minds? Why do you think the Yankees and Redsox push pitches per plate appearance? Not only do their hitters see better pitches from the starters but because middle relief in baseball is so awful as a whole they end up seeing more pitches from those guys instead of the better starters.
Well if you read what Hudgens is preaching he doesn’t care at all about OBP and never mentions it EVER when he talks about approach to hitting!
The problem here is you are calling an Apple an Orange!
Hitting Approach, Plate Discipline has nothing to do with OBP!
OBP is not the goal of plate discipline! It is merely a consolation result!
The idea of being patient at the plate is to get a HIT not to walk, which makes the focus of teaching it not about walks or OBP but of Hitting and BA!
The Walk is taken not looked for in plate discipline!
You are confusing OBP with plate discipline…An Apple compared to an Orange!
Not at all, OBP is a major goal BECAUSE the players that have a higher OBP make less outs. That is what OBP is about. It isn’t just about BA or Walks, it’s about not making an out.
“Andy McCullough in the Star-Ledger profiles hitting coach Dave Hudgens’ approach to hitting, which centers on on-base percentage.”
In reference to Ramon Hernandez while with the A’s:
“”He led our club in pitches-per-at-bat,” Hudgens said. “So, it’s not a coincidence that he was hitting well.”
There’s tons more of this so to say that Hudgens is not an OBP guy is far from the truth.
“Shortly after arriving in Port St. Lucie, Fla., for Spring Training in February, Jose Reyes met with new hitting coach Dave Hudgens, who quite plainly informed Reyes that he was going to improve his on-base percentage. “
“That’s what I told him — he needs to be that kind of player,” Hudgens said. “In order to separate himself from the competition, he needs to get on base.”
Again, you still want to say that Hudgens does not focus on OBP?
He didn’t say he was oing to walk more though did he?
Reyes didn’t imporve his walks as much as he improved his hitting!
So all this OBP is just crap he focused on the hitting which is just as much OBP as walking and being patient!
Something lost on you apparently!
By the way that last comment was about Tejada.
Now you originally said that Hudgens did not focus on or stress OBP. I continue to provide you quotes where he did. I never said he stressed walks. OBP isn’t about getting walks, it’s not getting out.
“OBP is a major goal BECAUSE the players that have a higher OBP make less outs”
Hitting more makes less outs too!
Or did you forget that?
So since Hitting improves not only your LESS OUTS total it also improves your:
RBI
EBH
SLG
K:BB Ratio (not by increasing BB but by reducing Ks!
And have you looked at Reyes numbers recently?
They call you a liar!
Under Hudgens (2011)
.337 BA, 43 BBs
Before that (2007-2008) ,280 and .297 BA 77 and 66 BB!
Did he increase reyes’ BBs or his hits?
Looks a lot to me like it was the hits that went up not his walks!
So what you say isn’t true!
the BA is what made the OBP go up not more walks!
I think your missing the point though Metsie.
On the one hand your absolutely right about hitters having to swing at whatever could is close with two strikes, even having to swing at the pitchers pitch on 0-2 and 1-2 and even 2-2 which traditionally have the lowest BA’s against.
What I think your missing here is the taking of what would have been a ball in the lead up to those counts as opposed to fouling it off or swinging through it thereby changing that 0-2 into a 1-1 or the 1-2 into 2-1 or that 2-2 into a 3-1.
That’s all people are talking about when they discuss selectivity and once you’ve established that, then you can establish swinging at the first pitch too especially with RISP. That makes you a very big problem for the guy on the mound.
A) .274 .307 .411 .718
B) .292 .341 .441 .782
C) .285 .407 .431 .839
Which player would you rather have?
Their batting averages aren’t that different and their SLG are in the ball park. What is the difference in the player? One of the players made a LOT less outs over his career.
A) Bengie Molina (the classic, I am going to swing, I don’t care about OBP)
B) Jose Reyes
C) Rickey Henderson
What is a few more points in OBP? The difference in a HOF player, a star player, and a below average player.
I take the .292 hitter everyday of the week and twice on Sunday!
Close to one hit every 3 ABs, Hits for Power! Just not as much as Player A does!
Player C walks but doesn’t hit, Has about the same power numbers when he does hit but with less hits means less result!
the .839 looks impressive to the OBP Saber crowd but the truth is it just shows how useless OPS is in judging who is actually the better hitter!
All the WALKS inflated the .839 OPS and I know there were a lot of walks merely by looking at his BA OBP diferential!
in 500 PA
Player A had 153OB 132H 17BB
Player B had 170OB 139H 25BB
Player C had 203OB 125H 61BB
I take Player B!
If you use my preferred method of OPS and add BA to SLG … (not OBP)
Player A .685 roughly 42 EBH This guy is a Power Hitter! Slg didn’t show it did it?
Player B .733 roughly 37 EBH This guiy has power too (Slg did show some signs)
Player C .716 roughly 35 EBH This guy appears to have power but less than the others maybe if I want a leadoff hitter I go for him!
Thats all PURE hitting metric! Show thier relative POWER potential on any given hit!
You want to count walking as much as hitting be my guest but don’t try to tell me the guy with the higher OBP actually hits better than the others!
So you would actually take Jose Reyes over Rickey Henderson? Seriously? Reyes would get 7 more hits in 1000 AB than Henderson but Henderson would get on base 66 more times during that span. That’s 66 more times that Henderson would not make an out.
yep! because thats also 66 less RBIs which is way more important to scoring runs than just being on base!
Only 34% of OBs result in an RS So you increased your RS with Ricky by about 22 Runs
95% of all RS is the result of an RBI! 100% are RS You get 62 more runs if the guy hitsinstead of walks and drives in a run!
21% of all RS is the result of a HR! 100% are RS
So yes I take Reyes over Rickey because he can get the hits and take whatever walks he can when they pitch around him so he doesn’t drive in those runs the way they did with Rickey!
No one pitches around Reyes. No one ever has for two reasons. #1 he’s the last guy you want OB and #2 until last year he was very gullible out side the strike zone.
OK.
i’m not confusing a thing here Tag you guys are making the assumption that a player swings at any pitch that comes his way!
And that stopping him has anything to do with OBP!
It doesn’t!
The goal of plate discipline is about increasing BA which as a side affect increases OBP but the goal is not the OBP! Never even gets mentioned in what you guys is claiming is being taught!
Plate discipline is all about getting a HIT! Finding your pitch is all about finding out what pitch you CAN hit not what pitch you should wait to come before you swing!
It may never come and that means you have to do what you can to protect the parts of the plate that are strikes you can not hit (late in the count) until such time as the Pitcher GIVES YOU that pitch you CAN hit (and that varies from batter to batter) or some mistake ANYONE can hit provided they are not looking to walk instead because someone said “GET YOUR OBP UP” or deemed it more important than your BA!
You guys are making Plate Discipline = OBP…they are two seperate things…Apples and Oranges!
Hudgens doesn’t care about OBP and even said so in his first interview on SNY!
He talks about waiting for your pitch, sometimes that even means taking a first strike, sometimes it means not trying to hit a pitch that you can’t hit well but the goal is NEVER to just get on base the goal is to increase your BA which as a result will increase your OBP and if you hit well enough will even encourage those IBBs later on because your considered a dangerous batter!
You guys are trying to reverse that logic and say because you took a walk last time you will get better pitches to hit but thats hardly true!
Doesn’t maen your going to get any more strikes thrown at you next AB all it means is he missed last time on some close pitches and he will try NOT to miss the second time around!
Hitting inspires the pitcher to walk you thats what Got Votto and all those Yankees the OBP you guys keep mentioning!
It wasn’t their patience and ability to walk that made them great hitters it was their great hitting that inspired pitchers to walk them where there is less damage done than a hit does with people on base!
That’s certainly not the case with me Metsie,
I’ve always said the goal is to raise BA and SLG, the way to do that is to be more selective and the by product is an increased BA, SLG and especially OB cause you get a double hit on that, walks plus a higher percentage of hits)
From a team perspective it cannot be overstated that as much as a Benjie Molina or Jeff Francoeur can help the sum total of the effectiveness of what they give you is considerably less than what it appears on the surface.
Turning the lineup over and getting your best hitters 5 AB’s most games instead of 4 is dependent on keeping the conga line moving. That means 40 PA’s total for 1-5 to hit 5 times or a combination of 13 hits and walks (without DP’s or base running gaffes)
13 hits in 40 PA’s isn’t as likely as 9 hits and 4 walks. Take away those 4 walks, even if the runner gets stranded each time and your 1-5 hitters (your best hitters) get one less chance to hit.
Right but then you go on about how important increasing OBP is to doing that and it’s not the OBP thats just a result it is the journey that gets you there the end goal being the HIT not the OB!
To focus on the OB is not helping you with the journey your looking for a result with OB not a proccess!
So Rickey Henderson had a 100 points difference in his BA and OBP because pitchers feared his hitting more?
OBP is about not getting out. What does it measure, how many times you get on base. You like to use your RBI stat as a correlation to runs scored. How kooky of course it does. How about this this one. The team with the highest OBP is 100% correlated to the team that gets on base the most.
“The goal was to improve on-base percentage. Hudgens’ approach is simple but brutal.
“Hunt your pitch,” he tells his players.
“We want to do damage in the middle of the plate.”
“If he doesn’t give you that pitch? We’re walking to first base.””
“n the process, the team established the sort of offensive identity lacking in years prior. The misconception about improving on-base skills is the process relies on passivity, on cowards willing to pass on pitch after pitch in search of the almighty walk.”
” He appreciates getting on base and slugging percentage. In his domain, the two pursuits intertwine. In order to get on base, you must be selective. If you are selective, you can hit with power.”
Yep!
Note when he didn’t walk 100+ times what his BA was in those years!
The year he had the highest OBP was 1990 when he hit .325 with only 97 walks!
his next highest OBP .432 he hit .289walked 120 times!
Rickey’s slug was constantly above .400 (and above .500 a few times) in his best years.
Rickey was a very dangerous hitter and people forget that!
He like Reyes turned a lot of singles into doubles and doubles into triples!
Your point is a good one about Votto but it says more about his team and his lineup than it does about anything else.
If Votto was a fisherman he would get less to hit and consequently get passed interntionally less often. As the only hitter with neutral platoon splits in the lineup he cannot be turned around therefore it makes perfect sense to walk him intentionally and pitch to Phillips (with a RHP) then bring in your LHP to face Bruce.
The IBB’s are just a result of his patience and the lineup he hits in. Even Keith had 15 hitting in front of Carter and Straw. Even led the League in walks hitting in front of those guys when he only had 9 IBB’s.
No it says more about what he did when he DID get a hit!
You have a choice, throw strikes to a guy with 29 HRs 3 T 40 D 110 RBI or walk him because he only gets one base and can’t drive a run in unless it’s bases loaded which negates the choice of what to do with him in the first place?
Look at all the guys with a .400 OBP and what is the common denominator?
Certainly not the team as they all play for different teams….
It’s the HR and SLG/POWER numbers that inspired pitchers to make them all league leaders in IBB because a walk seemed beytter than letting him hit!
And it is those IBBs that is the main difference in their HIGH OBP!
They HIT well to start! And they hit better than just for average!
That is what gets the pitchers to pitch carefully and around where the plate discipline can take over and get a good result DESPITE not getting a good pitch to hit!
Nester,
Your point is well taken that Jose’s overall improvement in OBP translates into him becoming more selective with pitches and pitchers know they have to throw him strikes instead of borderline pitches, meaning he will get better pitches to hit. But that is what every hitter is taught to do – it’s the basic concept of hitting. But the result of a .320 OBP compared to Jose’s .384 (a sixty point difference) still amounts to only one additional time getting on base every four games than the average hitter – or 38 times more over the course of a season. It creates more opportunties, but not a tremendous amount.
That’s why OBP is more important for us as fans to understand things those on the field know without the use of a calculator. One looking at .384 compared to .320 see a huge difference statstically but don’t realize that means not getting on base any more than the average hitter 75% of all contests (roughly 120 games). Watching the Mets day in and day out, one would hardly notice the slight difference between a player with the higher percentage and the lower.
TR,
Keeping the math at 500 at bats (it’s easier to figure out that way) the difference between a .300 hitter and a .250 hitter is 25 hits per season, or one additional hit every six games. Yes, give me those 25 extra hits anytime – that could easily account for 50 runs or more over the course of the season (batted in and then scoring one’s own self). But those 50 runs also have to deal with team work – the players hitting in front and those behind. There are players with low batting averges who rise to the occasion with runners in scoring position and drive them in. Again, there is a difference between the average player and the super star, especially when taken over the course of a career, but the stats again make the divergence seem greater to the fan than to those on the field. It just shows that a little bit more accomplishment goes a long way compared to the average player
And are the Yankees and Red Sox stressing actual on base percentage or using that termonology to explain the fundamentals of a more sound plate approach by the hitter, especially in this age of the pitch count? Make the pitcher throw more pitches by laying off borderline pitches, thus work the count in one’s favor and getting a better chance to hit the ball.
It’s all highly situational When facing a pitcher on a day where he has good command of his pitches, a good hitter knows he can’t take more than the first pitch for that means he’s usually going to get behind in the count instead and then has to go swinging at border line pitches so not to strike out. Extending the count might result in nothing more than makng the pitcher throw more pitches – not getting on base. In that case, does the manager care less about getting a man on base early in the game if he insteads builds up one’s pitch count and wears out the pitcher in the later innings?
And Stick,
As I said, those additional few hits over the course of the season mean a lot for personal achievement. Somebody hitting .301 feels a lot better than finishing up the season at .298. And the difference over the course of the season could be just one call by the official scorer. Pete Rose knew what his average could be after his at bat as he was stepping into the batters box.
Again, it’s the little extra ingrediants that separates the super star from the average star in the non-power categories. Players recognize that and respect that. When they talk about great hitters they rarely talk about it in terms of stats – they talk about it in terms of wrist action, ability to pick up the rotation of the ball, patience, the ability to foul off two strike pitches, etc. Not stats.
Joey,
There is so much more benefit in being selective at the plate than just gaining 1B 15-40 additional times every year.
There is additional pressure on the pitcher and defense, holes open up on the field, pitch selection can be influenced as well as attrition on the pitcher. The real benefit for an offense is when everyone in the lineup does it. That’s what the Red Sox and NYY have been doing and consequently the 4 hour war evey game has turned into.
Lets just say that everyone gained half of what Reyes did in 2011. That’s 80 extra base runners over an above what you had the year before but even that doesn’t begin to tell the whole story.
The real value is in getting pitches you can drive on a more consistent basis so taking your walks adds to your slugging percentage whether your a doubles or a HR guy and that’s the formula for scoring runs. OB + SLG get you more runs than anything else. Taking your walks gets you more pitches to drive because pitchers are actively attempting to get you out and if they can’t do it by throwing stuff off the plate…………………………
T agree,
WE AGREE! But what you are talking about is plate discipline.
A hitter with a .320 OBP can be just as disciplined as one with Jose’s .384. And he gets on base almost as often (one less every four games). Same with a .300 hitter as opposed to a .250 hitter – both could be just as disciplined but one is a little bit better than the other in getting a base hit throwing away the statistics.
The ability that separates the good from the great is that little extra in a game where the best players make an out seventy percent of the time (forget about OBP in this case). That’s my point. The formula for measuring a player’s ability to help produce runs is over-exaggerating the difference between good players is miniscule. And to separate the great hitter from the really poor one, no stats are really needed at all.
Again, stats are not indicative of the true value of a player’s overall worth except in the cases of the extremely good compared to the extremely bad on a major league level.
S
“A hitter with a .320 OBP can be just as disciplined as one with Jose’s .384.”
By sample size I just don’t agree. Can a .320 OBP guy have a career year and go .384? Yeah. Can a .384 guy have a down year and go .320? Yeah but over the sample size the good offensive player find a way to keep those higher numbers. As for those stats only being for the fans? Is there that much difference in a 80 RBI guy and 100 RBI guy? There sure is in terms of what the team will pay. Is there that much difference in a .250 guy and a .300 guy? Ask the HOF veterans committee.
Of course the guy with the .320 OBP can be just as disciplined as one with an OBP of 384. He knows not to swing at bad pitches, can foul off those on two strikes, can try to work the count in his favor, etc. but just not be able to produce the few extra hits and walks nevertheless. We’ve seen many a hitter have a disciplined at bat and head back the dugout.
What this suggests is that stats are fun but the deeper one goes into deciphering them – traditional or advanced – the more one gets away from the understanding and appreciation of what baseball is really all about.
So are we really saying that the difference between a career .300 hitter and a career .250 hitter is minimal?
Depends on what kind of hits the .250 hitter has!
Howard hits around .250 would you take him over Reyes?
I bet you would!
Honestly no I wouldn’t.
Joey you’re really starting to confuse me. Those extra 38 or so times Reyes or whoever get on above avg is just one spot in a 9 man lineup, 8 if you wanna remove the pitchers spot because they don’t add much to an offense. If most if not all of your lineup is getting on base more than the avg then it adds up to a lot more baserunners and a lot more runs. Take Reyes’ last 2 seasons. He had an OB% in 2010 of 321 and scored 83 runs, in 2011 with 27 less at bats Reyes’ OB% was 384 and scored 101 runs, again in 27 less at bats. So that extra .63 added up to 18 more runs scored than the previous year. That’s a big difference from one player.
And both the Redsox and Yankess probably as much or maybe even more so stress OB% and working pitch counts up. The Yankees have been stressing that since they started their run of championships in the 90′s. Same with the Sox. Just watch a Yankee-Redsox game they take forever to play a 9 inning game. I know you’re anti stats but you’re giving poor examples to state your case.
The whole point in stressing OB% is getting better pitches to hit, not just working works. Laying off the unhittable pitches. It’s taught when you first start playing as a kid but not everybody does it, even major leaguers are hackers . I really don’t get what point you’re trying to make other than you don’t like the use of stats. The human eye is not perfect either.
BTW seeing your comment in the shoutbox last night. I do not love Sandy. I only defended him for an opinion of him that wasn’t based on fact. Facts disproved the opinion.
“The whole point in stressing OB% is getting better pitches to hit, not just working works. Laying off the unhittable pitches.”
Ding, ding, ding. Those who would not want us to emulate the Redsox and Yankees offensively are missing the boat. I am willing to bet they see more pitches from middle relievers than any teams in the bigs.
How about the phillies, the supposed “gold standard” franchise in the NL now. Know what there major focus is on this year (What manual is still harping on?)
Plate discipline, working counts, not hacking and chasing. All the things that go into OBP, and Hudgens philosophy. basically, he feels they became too long ball happy, and need to become more patient and opportunistic.
Yeah, I understand the traditionalist don’t want to change their views. I am set in my ways on a lot of things in sports, politics, religion, education… However, it’s clear that baseball is headed into a different direction. Will it continue in this direction or shift back to BA, HR again? Maybe but for now there aren’t many teams out there not stressing OBP and pitch selection.
but if done right, it should actually lead to a better BA and even more HRs for a lot of guys (the ones that stop getting themselves out early in the count swinging at crap).
The Traditionalists are not going to change our views when you guys claim plate discipline is about OBP not BA or that OBP is more important than BA when we all know most of that OBP is ACTUAL BA!
All this focus on OBP is just BS!
Plate Discipline is all about getting better BA which in turn will make the OBP better as well!
It’s about getting HITS not on base!
all the things that go into OBP but note he didn’t say OBP!
All those things also go into BA which also goes to OBP now doesn’t it?
Fonzi,
The point I am trying to stress is that the difference between comparing players is minimal between actual performance as opposed to stat.
You have an excellent point about teams in general having all their players try to raise the amount of times they get on base, but that really does not increase the amount of run scoring – just the manner in which they are scored.
To prove that, compared the national average runs per game per team for 2011 against past eras when on base percentage was not stressed:
2011 4.13 RPG
1987 4.52 RPG
OK, it is unfair to compare 1987 and beyond to today because of the steroid factor so lets go further back to when the strike zone was the same but there were no performance enhancing drugs other than greenies for staminia, starting in 1980:
1980 4.03 RPG
1979 4.22 RPG
1978 3.99 RPG
1977 4.40 RPG
1976 3.98 RPG
1975 4.13 RPG
1974 4.15 RPG
1973 4.15 RPG
1972 3.91 RPG
1971 3.91 RPG
1970 4.52 RPG
1969 4.05 RPG (first year of the new strike zone and lower mound)
Six out of those12 seasons (exactly half) national league teams scored either the same or more than they did this year, The range difference for any one season is for .22 more runs per game in 1911 compared top 1972 and 1971 and .39 less runs per game compared to 1970. Mind you, there were only 12 teams back then so the pitching staffs were not as diluted as they could be considered today with 16 national leagues teams at the moment).
So run production hasn’t change much at all from era to era – just the style in which those runs were produced. It could even be argued that the way the game was played in the seventies that teams today can produce even more runs by abandoning the emphasis on OBP – considering there are approximately 50 more pitching slots available which dilutes the overall quality of pitching faced. Of course, that argument is purely hypothetical.
But what is not hypothetical is either 1) today’s brand of baseball produces no more runs than that of the brand used forty years ago if OBP was not emphasized or 2) that the brand of baseball was basically the same and OBP was no less emphaiszed then than it is now – and if that is the case, that shows that analytic study produces nothing new.
Joey the way to figure out how much of a difference OB% makes to scoring runs is look each team seperately. You can go all the way back to the dead ball era. The teams with the high OB percentages score more runs than teams with poor OB%.
Every once in a while a team will hit an extroadinary amount of HR’s and offset the lower OB but that’s the exception not the rule. The best way to measure run production is OPS. On Base plus Slug %.
The avg’s you gave show runs per game for the whole league hasn’t changed much. If you look at the teams seperately you will see the teams that were exceptional at getting on base scored more than the teams that were below avg the vast majority of the time.
The reason why OB% is stressed by most teams now because it has shown that more men on base lead to more runs.
1987 was a wierd season. That year alot of HR’s were hit. Even Wade Boggs hit 24. Not too many guys were juicing back then as compared to the mid 90′s early 2000′s. It probably had something to do with the balls because there was no expansion that year and it went back to normal the next season.
The only other way to score runs if you do a poor job getting on base is to hit a ton of HR’s. It’s much easier to put a team together with hitters that get on base well than it is getting a bunch of HR hitters, especially now that the performance enhancers are few and far between.
Yes Fonzie,
You would have to separate out those teams with a high OB from those with a lower one and see who scored more runs in the same year, presumably facing the same pitchers ect.
You can even look at just our results through the years for instance we scored our most runs ever in 1999 and had the highest OB% that year too. One year doesn’t prove anything but if you carry it all throughout a teams history is enlightening as well.
Thas a total fallacy one that was disproved well over a year ago by me!
teams with higher OBP do not always score more runs than teams with lower OBP!
In fact OBP is all over the board with only a marginal trend that the mnore runs you score the more likely you are to have a high OBP but high OBP is not required to score more runs!
Higher RBI is much more important to the RS ranking than OBP is!
Correlates better 27-5 than OBP!
So your point is that in order to score more runs all you need is to get more RBI?
OK.
What would be your advice to Jose Bautista to increase his RBI? He hit 43 HR’s last year and barely cracked 100 RBI.
How does one go about getting more RBI? He hit over .300 on the season and .316 with runners OB.
Would simply hitting .400 be the key?
You don’t tell Batista anything he is already getting the job done!
You leave him alone and ask him if there is anything you can do for him but thats it!
You don’t try and improve by MESSING with success!
You onky coach those who are NOT succeeding and tell them what to do!
And in most cases improving their HITTING gets EVERYTHING better where simply focusing on OBP does not!
gettiong on base does NOT increase your power EBH or RBI!
Improving BA does though and gets you everything you think improving OBP does PLUS!
But Metsie Bautista had 43 bombs and only 103 RBI. Wright had 102 RBI with just 27 HR’s. 116 with just 26. 107 with just 30 and 124 with just 33. Hell he even had 72 with just 10 HR’s.
If all it takes to score more runs is to get more RBI than Bautista should be getting a lot more of them then he is. 43 HR’s and only 103 RBI what is he doing wrong?
AND if you relace wright with Bautista you have increased both Bautista’s and the team RBIs and team RS!
Without any change to the OBP now didn’t you?
As I said in reply to jessup two days ago, you want to increase OBP of a near .300 BA hitter thats fine but your really not going to get a lot for your effort, And instead risk hurting the results of that .300 BA hitter in the proccess by taking away some of his aggressiveness.
But you don’t build a team by improving the GOOD players unless you are improving them by replacing a good hitter/RBI guy with a better one!
You don’t merely say to Bautista you know what change all that great stuff your doing because we like OBP, you take what he does, leave him alone and if you want to improve the team RBI then improve what is around the good player or replace him with an even BETTER player!
So in this case Replacing Wright with Bautista would improve Bautista’s RBI without even a mention or look at OBP!
But if you replaced Bautista with Wright say in 2010 you would have lost 43 HR’s.
HR’s are by definition run scoring events and frequently produce more than just one at a time so how would hitting 43 less of them help you score more runs?
Well who said about replacing Bautista with Wright?
You did Metsie.
“If you replace Wright with Bautista you have increased both Bautista’s and the team RBI and team RS!”
Correct me if I’m mistaken but we were discussing Bautista only having 103 RBI while hitting 43 HR’s on the Blue jays so I interpreted you above comment to mean that replacing Bautista with Wright would have resulted in more RS for Toronto even with 33 less HR’s.
Did I misinterpret something?
well you reversed it…
I said replace Wright with Bautista not Baustista with Wright!
Put Bautista on the Mets and his RBI will increase as will the Mets RBIs!
Because he would increase his RBI total by an amount equal to the RBI’s Wright wasn’t getting!
Why would I try to increase Toronto’s RBI’s when they scored more runs than us BECAUSE of a guy like Bautista?
Hitting .245 with RISP?
Ryan Howard hit 256 with RISP in 2006 and 247 with 2 out and RISP and drove in 149. Phils were 2nd in OB 1 point behind the NL Lead.
Howard had 15 more HR’s than Bautista in total.
Compare Bautista’s 2010 season to Howards 2006
Bautista Howard
Bases empty
410 PA’s 347 AB’s 346 to 306
Men on base
273 PA’s 222 AB”s 358 to 275
RISP
167 PA’s 126 AB’s 223 to 164
Total 683 PA’s 569 AB’s 704 to 581
Bautista come up with less men on base, less with RISP and more with the bases empty. Both hit 29 HR’s with men on, Howard hit 29 solo and Bautista 25 solo. I think it’s fair to say that Howard had 25 more RBI’s because Philly put more men on. This past year Howard drove in 13 more with 10 less HR’s.
“Both hit 29 HR’s with men on”
Nope. Howard hit 29 HR’s with men on, and Bautista only hit 16. Yes, part of the reason why Howard drove more in was because he had more opprotunites, but the main reason why was because he hit more HR’s and hit better with RISP.
Vinny the point these guys keep glossing over is it has nothing to with how many men you get on base that is irrelevant since only a third of all OB actually results in a run being scored as far as a league average goes.
The key is what happens when you DO have a MOB not the frequency in which you have them!
If you have three guys on base and only score one it’s no better than having two guys on base and scoring one!
Both scored the same amount of runs but one was more efficient than the other in scoring them!
This is why Toronto beat other OBP better teams.
While they didn’t have a lot of OB almost all of it scored where as a team with more OBP didn’t and just stranded them!
Increasing OBP doesn’t matter if you don’t score them!
And having less OBP doesn’t matter if you DO score them more efficiently than some other team scores thiers!
No Vinny he hit 25 empty and 29 with men on. He hit 54 in 2010, Howard hit 58 in 2006. 29 and 29. I compared those 2 years because they were closer in HR’s. Howard only hit 256 with RISP and 247 with 2 out and RISP. Not that good.
Howard had more opportunities and that was the point I was trying to make.
I was talking about Bautista’s 2011 season, not his 2010 season. T Agee brought up that he hit 43HR’s and only 103 RBI. And then I said part of the reason why he only had that many RBI was because of his .245 average with RISP.
Metsi, T, Fonzie, Vinny, et. all,
Doesn’t the discussion regarding Wright, Howard, Bautista, how many runs Toronto, Kansas City or the Mets scored, OBP, etc. indicate how difficult it is to know how to get the right piece to fit in a squad and that how the talent on each team is so different that there is no one type of strategy that could work well for all of them. And that the efficiency of the pitching staff also has a large part in determining how much offense plays a part in trying to win as well?
I think you all know the point I’m trying to get at – a computer serves well as a tool but should not be something that one deems could provide information to a lawyer, businessman, computer programmer or any type of front office individual who has no grass roots base ball knowledge can rely upon to put together a baseball team.
Your conversation shows how complex baseball really is and to depend upon one who simply comes in from the cold and learns how to get his appreciation of the game “outside the box” via sabremetrics is a course for disaster. It takes baseball people to know how to put together a baseball team and thus the personnel end of running any organization should not be left in the hands of those who aren’t. As many baseball executives have said, they need to use computer analysis if, for nothing more, just to know what teams that rely upon it are thinking.
Well JoeyI’m not claiming it is simple to find the right ingredients to build a good team in fact I’m arguing that the SIMPLISTIC OPB cures everything POV is just dead wrong!
Yes it does take a much better and deeper look to find what makes a team score runs!
And what could make them score more!
But then again I’m not the one trying to say that get more OBP and you score more Runs!
Fonzie is! Tag I know is at least willing to consider that statement as not ALWAYS true, may be true in some cases but not others…
Fonzie is just fooled because he doesnt’t really understand what is going on he is just parroting what someone else told him without ever bothering to check the history of if it is true or not!
What history shows is that teams that suck getting on base suck at scoring runs and teams that are good at getting on base are good at scoring runs. You gave one example of a team below avg at getting on base that was good at scoring runs and it took them a shit load of HR’s to offset their below ag OB%.
You thump your chest like you proved something becuase a team that came in 4th in OBP came in 5th in runs or a team that came in 2nd in OB came in 5th in runs. LMAO. Your arguments are hilarious. Now if you showed me a team that was 3rd or 4th in OB come in 12,13,14 in runs then you may prove something. You haven’t done that.
Again I showed you a team lead the league in BA come in 13th in runs scored. Can you show me a team lead the league in OB come in that low in runs scored? How about that amatuer OPS? You can’t do it. No team that leads the league in OPS is ever going to be in the bottom 13th or 14th in runs scored. None, Zero, Zippo, Nada, Niente, Zilch.
You want to know who the parrot was who first caught my attention with OB%. His name is Mr Ralph Kiner. he’s been yapping about it for the 40 years I’ve been watching the Mets and he continues to talk about it today, even in spring games this year he brought it up. That’s my parrot. I researched it and found him to be telling the truth. Just look at the teams that can’t score runs for shit and look at their OB and look at the teams that are good at scoring runs and then look at their OB. Oh yeah you found one.
I won’t even get into the RBI to Runs debate cause it’s even funnier than saying OB doesn’t correlate to runs. I don’t know who taught you these things but I believe you have a good lawsuit.
History shows no such thing!
All History shows is good teams score more runs than bad teams and good teams do everything better than bad teams not just get on base!
As for getting on Base I showed the history…Higher OBP does not guarantee higher RS than a team with lower OBP!
So your statement is patently FALSE, Your History MADE UP pile of BULL!
It’s not a fallacy. Teams that have high on base pct’s score more runs than teams with poor on base pct’s. All your little waste of time article that combined both leagues by the way, showed is that it’s not neccesarily in order. The league highest OBP may not be 1st in runs scored and the team that finished 2nd in OB% may not finish 2nd in runs scored but you will never see a team leading the league in OB% be at the bottom of the league in runs scored. You will see a team leading the league in batting avg finish 13th in runs scored like the 2009 Mets but you’ll never see a team 1st in OB% finish 13th in runs scored. The only exceptions you’ll see where a team that doesn’t have a high on base score a lot of runs is a team that bashes a ton of HR’s and has a crazy high Slug %.
If you can’t see the relationship RBI has to Runs than you know less about baseball that you try and claim. The best measure of run production is OPS. Not RBI and certainly not batting avg+ Slug %= METSIE OPS. You can’t make up your own stats and apply it to real baseball.
Oh really?
Then who scored more runs last year?
Toronto Blue Jays? 18th in OBP
Or
NYM 6th in OBP?
How about KC did they score more runs being 8th in OBP (10 places ahead) than Toronto?
Did they score more runs than Cincy who was 9th in OBP?
How about Colorado who was 7th in OBP? Why did Toronto and Cincy score more than them? And why did they score more than the Mets?
Hmm?
First tell me how you get 18 teams in the AL.
who said anything about the AL?
Thats league wide!
Whats the matter? Haven’t you figured out who did what yet?
Or are you merely running away from admitting Higher OBP really doesn’t mean higher RS?
As I just proved to you?
hey fonzie we are all waiting with baited breath for your explanation of Toronto if higher OBP means more RS!!!
I’m not running from anything. There’s 2 leagues. AL and NL. When the AL cans the DH or the NL adds the DH then you can combine the 2. Seperate the 2 leagues and then come back to me.
The question about Toronto that should be asked is how did they only score so few runs considering all the HR’s they hit?
2010
Toronto 755 runs scored 257 HR’s
Boston 818 runs scored 211 HR’s
NYY 859 runs scored 201 HR’s
Minn 781 runs scored 142 HR’s
The question that should be asked is how did Boston and NYY score so many more runs than Toronto while hitting so many fewer HR’s?
For that matter how did Minnesota score 26 more runs while hitting 115 less HR’s?
Could it have anything to do with team OB%?
Well considering Boston, Minnesota and the NYY were 1st, 2nd and 3rd in the majors in OB% I would say there’s a pretty good chance that’s exactly the reason.
What’s your opinion of this Metsie?
You most certainly are running by trying to change the subject to something about LEAGUES instead of the original point More OBP = More RS!
If thats true it really doesn’t matter what league your in since OBP and RS is no different in the AL than it is in the NL!
The ONLY affect the league might have is an AL team has a DH so they should have better OBP than thier NL counterparts!
And therefore should have more RS than their NL counterparts!
But that doesn’t happen either!
Since KC is an AL team and has more OBP than Toronto it’s obvious your just running from the facts with this whole AL/NL crap!
If More OBP=More RS it really doesn’t matter what league your in!
An NL team with more OBP SHOULD (according to you) score more runs despite not having a DH to get it done with!
OBP and RS is recorded the SAME WAY in BOTH leagues!
So Run and Hide my friend, run and hide!
is that the question that should be asked Tag?
Or is the proper question why did teams who did what you say is needed not score more runs?
Toronto didn’t do as well in some OTHER area is all you can answer and that answer is more than just OBP because teams with higher OBP didn’t score as much as hey did!
Could be anything BUT OBP, so what did the teams ahead of Toronto do better than Toronto that KC,the mets and 10 other teams failed to do?
The KC and toronto matchup is key because KC was better than Toronto in every category OBP (10 Places),SLG (3 Places),OPS (4 Places) and RBI (1 place) But they were closest in RBI (KC 6th, Toronto 7th)
So explain that and you have the key to more RS that is a better key than OBP!
But I pretty much just showed how OBP is not relevant at all to your RS numbers because teams with LESS OBP still manage to score MORE runs than those with higher OBP!
And you can try to make it about leagues and anything else you want…
But the bottom line is increasing OBP is no guarantee for scoring more than someone else!
Toronto, Cincy, Rockies, Arizona, KC and Mil all scored more runs than us despite us having a better OBP than ALL of them!
In our case it may be the SLG that hurt us. So much for OBP scoring more runs Maybe SLG is the answer….
If it is SLG then explain why Tronoto, Reds, and Rockies scored more than KC with less SLG and less OBP? Guess SLG isn’t the answer either now is it?
You tell me what you think it is?
Replace the OBP in this “RULE” you guys want to have with your new answer and tell us how accurate this More OBP = More RS actually is?
It isn’t! It’s a myth that many people who are OBP cetric believe because they read a book and never bothered to look at the actual results and what got the teams those results!
More OBP doesn’t guarantee anything but More OBP!
RS is much more complicated than that!
And shooting for an event that is only 30% efficient at getting the desired result is the act of a fool who ignores the metric that gets the result 100% of the time!
One that the player your getting gets on his own not with help from the defense in any way shape or form!
Oh and if you REALLY want an answer to why didn’t Toronto score MORE runs despite hitting more HRs the answer really is quite simple!
Perhaps most of their Lineup hit HRs while everyone else on other teams were just getting on base and being stranded!
Two guys with 20+
One with 40+
another three with 10+ (one of which had 17!)
and yet another with 9!
You can’t really drive in a guy who already drove himself in now can you?
5 out of 9 players had double digits in HRs One missed by one!
When 7 of your 9 can hit that many HRs you don’t really get to drive a lot of people in because they drove themselves in!
Toronto scored 13 more runs but they hit nearly 60 more HR’s. 13 lousy runs seperate the 2 teams and you think you proved some kind of point. How many runs scored would KC have if they hit 186 HR’s?
It’s unbelievable how you fail to grasp the simple concept of getting on base scores more runs. A team that hits 57 more HR’s scores only 13 more runs and you think you’re on to something.
Why don’t you look at the bottom of the league in runs and tell me what they have in common.
They suck at getting on base.
Now take a look at the other useless stat OPS. The top 6 teams in OPS are the top 6 teams in runs scored.
The bottom half in OPS are almost in exact order of bottom in runs scored.
You still have not shown me a team that leads the league in OB% be in the bottom of the league in runs scored like I showed you a team leading the league in batting average come in 13th of 16 teams in runs scored.
Show me an example of that.
All you prove is that debating with you is like going to the gym and watching someone workout. It’s absolutey useless.
I love this response to agee’s point.
” You can’t really drive in a guy who already drove himself in now can you?”
How on earth did Lou Gehrig who hit 4th behind Babe Ruth, drive in 175 runs when Babe Ruth hit 60 HR’s and drove in 164 and how the hell did Bob Muesel drive in 102 batting 5th behind Gehrig with 47 HR’s and 175 RBI’s who hit behind Ruth with 60 HR’s and 164 RBI’s? I’ll tell you! Because the Yanks got on base more than anybody else . Thank god you are not the GM of the Mets. Thank GOD!
I think that is the proper question to ask and I was asking for your thoughts on it Metsie.
Regarding the Twins they scored 26 more runs then Toronto while hitting less than half the HR’s the Blue jays did. 257 to 115. That’s a huge discrepancy whether you want to admit it or not.
What could be some of the reasons why? I’ve brought up OB% which the Twins were 2nd in the Majors.
What could be some of the others?
The 257 HR’s Toronto hit in 2010 were just a tiny fraction of the 6072 PA’s they had that year so I don’t think we can ascribe such a huge difference between RS and HR’s to such a miniscule percentage of total plate appearances.
Do you?
Why is it important is a HR the only way to get an RBI?
Your looking at a HR discrepancy but what was the RBI difference?
Regarding the Twins I don’t see where they scored more runs than Toronto!
Not in 2011 anyway….
Twins were 26th in RS!
i did prove a point More OBP doesn’t mean More RS!
And I never claimed More HRs = More RS but the truth is at least if you increase HRs you KNOW your going to increase RS 1:1…
Increasing OPB gets you only 3:1 as you need at least 3 OBs to get one RS at their current percentage rate of OB:RS
It’s unbelievable how you can continue to say getting on base more scores more runs when I just showed you ACTUAL STATISTICAL EVIDENCE that proves having more guys on base doesn’t get you more runs!
WHY DID TORONTO HAVE MORE RUNS THAN KC????????????
Did Toronto have more guys on base?
If not saying more guys on base means more runs scored makes you a FOOL!
And a loser in this debate!
I don’t see how you can say they sat around getting stranded when they OUTSCORED a team that out homered them 257 – 115.
Just from the runs scored standpoint that separated the two teams Toronto started out with a 142 run head start and much more likely double that since each HR would more closely average 2 RS as opposed to one.
If that supposition is correct that would mean that in that tiny fraction of AB’s Toronto began with a 284 run head start and yet still wound up scoring 26 runs less over 5815 other plate appearances.
What was it about those other 5815 plate appearances that allowed the Twins to not only make up 284 runs on Toronto but pass them by 26?
Well the reason I brought up 2010 was because you never answered this same question from last year when I asked you so when you brought up Toronto again in regard to OBP this year I figured I’d ask you for your thoughts on this this seeming contradiction.
Clearly it has nothing to do with the 0.5 % of PA’s in which a Blue Jay hit a HR leaving the bases empty since those PA’s did score runs, some of them multiple one’s, and everything to do with the 99.5% of the PA’s in which a Blue Jay didn’t hit a HR.
Care to share any other ideas?
Tag all your proving here is that increasing HRs or leading the league in HRs does not guarantee you score more runs than someone else!
Fact is thinking More OBP or HR = More RS is wrong!
Thats all you really saying here….
It doesn’t matter why Toronto didn’t have more RS than they did!
You want to ask that question of why they didn’t hit more 3 run HRs go ahead I gave you a perfectly reasonable explanation for that!
When the guys who hit in front of you hit a ton of HRs you can’t then drive them in!
Since the HR is a rarer occurance than other things it really doesn’t matter how often or how many PA it took to get them!
At least not as far as RS is concerned!
I never claimed it was HRs that was the key to scoring more runs, At best I said at least if you increase HRs you get a 1:1 HR:RS ratio where increasing OB only gets you a 3:1 ratio considering the average percentage of OB that actually results in an RS!
(I showed those numbers yesterday!)
So all this talk about HRs is just another smokescreen to hide the fact I jst proved More OBP does not mean More RS than someone who has LESS OBP!
If you want to change the subject then lets finalize the More OBP = More RS argument and state if I proved it doesn’t and then me and You can move onto what maybe IS the better metric to increase to get more RS!
Personally I think it is some combination of SLG combined with Clutch…The SLG gets more players into scoring position and players who hit well with RISP get thiose RBIs that correlate so well to the RS rankings!
And in the case of Toronto not getting more RS out of a monumental amount of HRs only means that everyone hit HRs so the RS Ratio was more 1:1 because the guys who did get OB got 4 of them all on their own!
Getting OB really doesn’t matter in their case because the kind of OB they did get almost ALWAYS resulted in an RS!
Cause it went over the fence!
And they have been the chink in the OBP=+RS armour for the last few years….
Which says to me if OBP has any role in the RS rankings it has more to do with the OBP:RS ratio than the OBP itself!
The closer to 1:1 OB:RS ratio you have the more runs you score!
Increasing OBP does not DECREASE that ratio though all by itself!
More OBP could actually make that ratio worse!
The goal is not more OBP it is more RS and the best ratio of OB:RS is the only thing that could possibly correlate better!
And I have not tested that but it seems logical on the surface of it.
Could it be BA Metsie?
Blue Jays were pretty far down the list. 12th out of 14 (.248) but Tampa was 13th out of 14 at .247 and they scored 47 more runs than Toronto despite hitting 97 less HR’s.
Same BA, 97 LESS HR’s and yet 47 more runs scored.
How do you account for that?
Did I say it was BA?
But I tell you this though…
SLG if maintained plus increase in BA will do more for reducing your OB:RS ratio than increasing OB will
Instead of asking me about all these different metrics why not propose one you think DOES now that OBP has been proven wrong…
I suggested OB:RS Ratio being reduced…
That doesn’t suggest more OB but actually less How you get there? A combination of Better SLG and better BA!
Because Hits can be more than one base where not all OB’s are many are merely one!
how do you explain Tampa Bay in 2010?
They scored more than Cincy, Rangers, Twins and did so with a worse OBP, SLG and OPS
What did all the leaders in RS do well and you might find your answer to all your questions….
It’s certainly not OBP SLG and OPS….
Thats for sure!
You tell me if not those metrics than what metric did all the RS leaders have in common!
Oh and pray tell What do you think Sabermetrics is all about if you think you can’t make up your own stats and apply them to baseball?
I guess WAR and OPS are all useless when applied to real baseball as well!
On that I would agree with you!
I agree with you on WAR. OPS I totally disagree. Much more useful than batting average.
OPS is much more usefull…Then tell us all what does OPS actually tell you about a batter!
Doesn’t say anything aboiut hitting because it icludes walks and HBP,
Doesn’t tell you about Power because high OBP can make up for no power in OPS
So why don’t you tell us what OPS actually tells you about a batter and then try to pry yourself out of the quandry you found yourself in by claiming higher OPB means more RS despite the facts and history saying the contrary!
OPS tells you much more than HBP and BB. Tells you everything batting average fails to tell you. Tells you more about power than batting avg Tells you more about being on base than batting avg does. I’m in no quandry. OBP leads to more runs scored than batting average does, facts you can’t dispute. OPS leads to more runs scored than batting avg, facts you can’t dispute. You haven’t proved anything. You proved you live in La La land. Give me an OPS number off the top of your head and I can guesstimate and be in the ballpark with the power numbers, something you can’t do with batting avg.
“Tells you everything batting average fails to tell you”
yeah like what?
“Tells you more about power than batting avg”
Batter has a .900 OPS…Is he a Power Hitter? I’ll tell you what the composite OBP and SLG was once you answer….
“Tells you more about being on base than batting avg does”
Same question as above and I will again tell you the composite OBP and SLG once you give me your answer…
So go on Slappy tell us all what you can tell from those OPS’ I gave you!
You are so running for the hills and grasping at Straws!
Because you know you can’t prove or explain your OBP OPS shortcomings!
And I CAN prove your just talking out of your Butt!
Still awaiting your answer on what you think OPS tells you…
Cat got your tongue?
OPS can’t be more useful than batting AVG. The second anyone wants to become a major league player you have to learn how to HIT. You don’t have a kid on a tee at 7 years old and you say to him “ok timmy, weight on your back foot, make sure your grip is comfortable now – OPS it!”
It starts with batting average and being able to HIT. All that other crap like OBP and OPS is born out of being able to HIT. I guess if you want a “rough idea” or a general “snap shot” of a player – after he’s become a hitter than i guess u can refer to a useless stat like OPS.
I prefer to know the details.
Hi Fonzie,
While some have been debating the strategic advantages or disadvantages of on base percentage, that has not been the area I was focusing on. The point I was trying to make was that the use of getting on base (i.e., the on base percentage) is no better understood or appreciated today due in part to statistical analysis than it was 40 years ago.
It’s really more about the debate about advanced statistical analsyis opening up new revelations which traditionalists like myself say it doesn’t.
Since there has been little change in the average runs per game per team today than there were in the seventies. This means:
1) The better teams with the better talent were able to get on base more than their opponents back then just as much as today or
2) The better teams with the better talent were able to generate more power than their opponents back then to score.
Either way, today’s generation has not found a way to score more than forty years ago when the game was maybe played differently as far as strategy but not in terms of pitching and batting techniques – the seventies was considered by many as one of the best eras of the game because all the mechanics of the game was used – power, speed and pitching. It wasn’t like the era of the dead ball, or the lively ball, or the fifties when batters were encouraged to swing from the uppercut and the emphasis was mainly on the long ball with the stolen base becoming a thing of the past.
That’s the only point. No new revelations.
Joe
No on claimed it was a new revelation. Branch Rickey built his offenses around it. He was putting teams together in the 1930′s. You made a point being that the difference between the leader in OB and number 8 in OB is miniscule but miniscule in terms of one player on a team of 9, not miniscule when the majority of the team is above to well above average like the Mets were last year compared to 2010. It’s not a new revelation but for far too many years teams did not pay much attention to it and they paid for it. Now most teams are paying attention to it. What your doing is showing the avg runs per game combining all teams. You didn’t look at the teams that scored the most runs and compared to the teams that had trouble scoring runs.
Now go back to your original post and tell me where you said anything about new revelations. What you said was the difference between the 2 players weren’t as significant as the stat suggests but when I added the entire team you then changed the point to no new revelations. I didn’t claim it was a new revelation. The more emphasis being put on it is coming from executives of MLB who know a little more than you and I.
Agree Joey,
No one needs stats to help them determine who they would prefer at a position or who’s better than someone else. Stats are worthwhile in determining how much better one guy is than another or to put things in proper context, ie 70 steals and 30 CS is quite a bit less in context than it would appear at first glance.
No one needed to consult stats to see that Keith Hernandez’ willingness to take the walk got him pitches to hit and pitches to drive. That increased his OB even without factoring the walks into it simply because getting better pitches to hit increases the BA, not to mention the SLG. Add back in the walks and you wind up with a guy who’s OB was .088 higher than his BA taking hm from a below average offensive first basemen to a well above average one offensively and allowed him to maximize his potential.
Clearly Keith had the skill and talent to do what others couldn’t and no one needed stats to see that.
Stats are also very useful for fans because how the hell can you have an informed opinion on every player in the Majors? Even a GM, the director of player personnel, scouting cooridinator wouldn’t “know” every guy or prospect.
I’m a huge believer in scouting. I don’t think it could ever be replaced and in most cases should be tripled because it all starts with ability. Without that nothing else matters but once you clear that hurdle and look under the hood at HOW the results are being achieved a more informed opinion about sustainability and room for growth can be assessed more completely than without.
Scouts should probably be kept in the dark about stats and just assess ability when evaluating prospects but the two combined (in the minors and Majors) tell a more complete story.
Well put Agee.
I think it’s important to understand that stats AND your eyes both lie at times. Yet together they provide a much better version of the truth.
It’s all about context too.
You just can’t rely on the human eye. Wasn’t trying to rhyme there. Scouts are wrong way more than they’re right so just how much can the human eye be trusted in making informed decisions. It was the Cleveland Indians scouts that suggested that Jeff Kents swing was mechanically flawed and that they should trade him. They traded him to SF and the rest is history. You can’t rely just on stats, scouting or the human element. All have to be taken into account.
I don’t disagree with sending Valdespin down just send him down to take reps at 2B and if he continues to hit than be prepared to come up ASAP. You can refine his hitting as you go.
Right but you are on record saying you would rather have Reyes.
yes i am nd I gave you my reasons why!
Hitting is better than walking!
Scores more runs is just as much an OB as a walk is and drives in runs that walking doesn’t and is a product of the BATTER’s ABILITY regardless of the Pitcher’s propesity to throw 4 balls or not!
Hi Fonzi,
Nobody in this post claimed it as a new revelation but many sabers have claimed the importance of OBP has not been apprciated as it is now.
I was never reffering to the strategic part of the debate – just that fans don’t understand that stats often make the differences in players appear overwhelmng – thus the case of the one extra on base every four games for Jose opposed to the norm, despite a 64 point differential in OBP.
Never claimed it important or not – especially since stratomatic did not allow for balls and strikes in the game.
Just that I read too many times all over the place (not specifically MMO) talking in terms of recognizing the importance of OBP as if it wasn’t deemed important decades ago.
It’s not just sabers that deem it important, unless you consider Ralph Kiner, Branch Rickey and Ted Williams saber heads. I’m nowhere near a saber preacher. I don’t even understand half of them but I do not knock something that I’m not all that brushed up on. You don not need any of those stats when you watch your team 162 times a year but I’m sure they’re very useful to the exec’s that do rely upon them to evaluate players they do not see every day.
I still have to disagree with the small difference you think that .64 makes, 1 base every 4 games, it meant the difference of 18 runs from the year before when his OB% was 321 he scored only 83 runs and had 27 more at bats. If you get 5-6 guys of your 9 getting on at a much higher than average rate. You’re gonna score runs. And if you have some power to go with being a good on base team you’re gonna do a lot of damage.
Jason Bay’s OB% doesn’t mean a whole lot because his slugging % has taken a huge dip. With his slugging all his on base shows is he’s a singles hitter that draws his share of walks. That’s not going to help you from a guy hitting in the middle of the order. Without the slugging his OB% means squat. 347 is nothing to write home about. His Slug dropped from 537 in 2009 with Boston to 402 in 2010 and 374 in 2011. That’s dreadful. 16 million dollar singles hitter.
This is strictly meant as an observation and not a comment.
Jason Bay had a higher OBP than the average national league hitter (.329 to .320). in 2010 he had a .347 OBP compared to the league average .324. Both years his OBP was in the range of 80 points higher than his batting average.
Since this also means that for 600 plate appearances in 2011 he would also get on base only 33 times less than Jose did (one less time approximately every four games) does it mean that except for power, Jason actually had two decent seasons with the Mets getting himself on base wise is concerned? LOL.
Joey,
That’s more of a guy who actually getting as much as possible out of what he’s got left.
I’ve mentioned this before. He’s at his ceiling, he’s not leaving anything he’s capable of on the table and consequently isn’t a complete black hole but just imagine what it would be like if he wasn’t getting OB?
You wouldn’t be able to wait and hope on him, he’d have to s**tcanned like Castillo and Perez.
Jason Bays OBP is the LEAST thing in the world i could care about. Give me 2 numbers from Jason Bay – if he hits 25 HRs, 80 RBIs that’s all i need to know about what type of season i want from him. He’s not a table setter he was signed to be a power guy, Unfortunately it hasn’t worked out that way but that’s another story for another time.
I could give a rat’s *** about his OBP. He got a contract because of his power and ability to drive in runs not the by-product of his actual talent, which is what this OBP nonsense is.
Actually it’s the same story almost all the time when your offseason plan every year is to just see who’s “available.”
Once in a very great while there is an elite superstar in his prime but they are very few and far between. Most of Them suck with very few exceptions, especially position players. And LF? Give me a f******n’ break. How many free agents do you have to bring in here to fill the easiest defensive position in the entire field?
Nick Evans and Endy Chavez could have formed a platoon that would have given you the same damn thing with enough left over to get a catcher and a second basemen too.
LF? LOL.
Holliday was a free agent LF, and he’s worked out very well for the Cards.
My response was to Joe, not you…..you SECOND GUESSING loser and I have no problem if a crazy person like yourself never not respond to my posts to other people because you’re a nutcase. there is something mentally wrong with a person who who always looks back to find excuses – after the results happen. You must hate everything you like, there’s no other explanation for the incessant SECOND GUESSING and monday morning quarterbacking you do. No normal human being does that – you sit here all day and SECOND GUESS? Are you some type of recluse who nibbles potato chips all day while watching 40 year old home video reminiscing about the past?
But i’ll say one thing, so NOW you say Nick Evans & Endy Chavez could give u the same production – figures.
Says the loser who’s constantly looking back at one AB in 2008 and claiming it cost the whole season and is constantly making excuses for all the ancient retreads he was all in favor of bringing over here.
What’s with all this speculation about other people anyway. What kind of a freak even thinks about other posters anyway? Just one, with nothing else to do.
If it puts your mind at ease I haven’t had a potato chip in 20 years. We don’t eat crap like that.
Anything else you need to know freak?
Is Ball Boy Bayonne the best we can do here on MMO? He is a psychological train wreck. I read the same posts from Tag he does and I find most of Tag’s views enlightening. Why is the Ball Boy stuck on stupid?
Hi Fonzi,
The reference to Williams, Kiner, Rickey, etc. is exactly the point I’m getting at. I have seen a big rise in the discussion (not in MMO but in general) emphasizing one’s on base percentage and that of an entire team was not deemed as important to past generations as it is today. Fonz, you know I do not attribute remarks to third parties just to justify my own feelings about things but it has been my experience to correct many an individual when it came to what they told me they learned from sabremetric study.
For example: afriend of mine said he learned hrough Bill James’ analytical study why Atlanta’s Fulton County Stadium would yield more home runs than the average ball park. James included all the basics along with environmental factors. I contested that having been a baseball fan in 1966 we already knew the reasons why the new park was a launching pad because of the environmental conditions. To be more specific, on an interview with Bob Costas on MLB Network, Hank Aaron said the first day he took batting practice there he knew he was going to hit a lot more home runs there – he cited the heat and humidity and the wind tunnels created by the stands and what he felt when the ball hit the bat – all he needed to do was to adjust his swing a bit to get the necessary lift to take advantage of those wind tunnels.
That’s the only point I’m trying to get across. My friend attributed Bill James and specific calculations for discovering the exact reasons why more home runs were hit in places like Atlanta which actually had deeper distances than some other parks when Hank Aaron figured out the reason his first visit to Atlanta that year after the Braves moved from Milwaukee.
So whether it be OBP, ball park analysis, the way fielders position themselves or those who can come through in the late innings better than others – these factors, though not down to the precise percentage point, have been known to baseball insiders all the time – even John McGraw said 90 years ago that he knew which of his players hit righties better than lefties, etc.
Yet so many fans of sabremetrics are giving advanced statistics credit for revealing new aspects of the game. Many are also re-writing history? Remember my example that on MLB Network one argued that statistical analysis proved Jeff Bagwell was the fifth greatest first baseman of all time? Or that article I posted about sabremetrics rewriting Yogi Berra’s assessment of his 1957 season? Perhaps this is simply baseball copying life – at some point in our lives we were all guilty of thinking we understood things better than the older generation only to find as we got older that we really didn’t.
Joey your orignal point was the difference between Jose’s 64 point differential in OBP to the league average isn’t as significant as the stats make it seem.
Then you tried using the avg number of runs scored per game to say that the new OB emphasis hasn’t changed run production over the last 40 years or so, which was a flawed way to make your point.
You failed to look at each teams individually and look at what the tops scoring teams had in common and what the teams that couldn’t score runs had in common. Top scoring teams have high OB%’s and the low scoring teams have low OB%’s the vast majority of the time.
Of course if you add all 30 teams now and all 24 teams then and before that 16 teams, the avg runs per game scored would be fairly equal.
Your point being no new ways to score runs has been discovered was not the point and no one has ever made a claim to have found newer ways to score runs. What the research showed is that the one constant for scoring runs is to get on base at a high rate and that’s why it’s being emphasized by most teams now as opposed to just a few teams years ago.
I’m not even going to get into the above comments about sabermetrics and Bill James studies and The Launching Pad studies because it has nothing to do with the original point. You started out with one point and now we’re on point number four.
And pray tell what did the top teams have in common?
Was it OBP or was that just incidental? In any case the top teams didn’t rank according to their OBP, Rangers were 5th, Tigers 4th Rangers scored more runs…
Was it SLG? Would not appear to be so since the top rankings did not appear in the same order as their SLG either, Yankees were 3rd, Rangers were second, Yanks scored more runs.
Was it you highly touted OPS? NOPE! Yankees 3rd, Rangers 2nd Yankees score more runs!
Only metric that seems to correlate perfectly in the top teams is RBI…
I’m not saying it is as good as you think OBP is but it is better than OBP!
From and old Fan Post of mine…
RBI on average will correlate to RS ranking within plus or minus 0.800 of actual RS rank. It was never off by more than 4 for any team
OBP will on average correlate to RS rank within plus or minus 2.600 of actual RS rank and was off by 12 in its worst prediction
SLG was a bit better only missing by 2.467 on average with its worst prediction off by 6
OPS (Which is a combo of OBP and SLG) fared not much better still missing by 1.600 on average but did not miss more than 5 to SLGs 6! Still worse than RBI did on prediction
Neither OBP, SLG or OPS could predict who would be in the top 10 of RS but RBI was PERFECT! Predicted all the top 10 teams!
So there you go there is your look at the top teams and what seems to be the best indicator of what your RS will be from the list of OBP,SLG, OPS and RBI!
Fonzi,
Again check out all my comments. Notice I stressed that I wasn’t talking about strategy and how much OBP is or isn’t vital when it came to run scoring.
My point, as you know, went beyond the issue of OBP to the issue we both disagree about – that many are inferring that more is known about the game today due to computer analysis than ever before. That’s why I used the fact that the amount of runs scored by national league teams has remained relatively consistent since the new strike zone and lower mound went into effect back in 1969. Of course, half the teams scored way more runs than the other half to get to that median average as today so that too has remained a constant.
If those older clubs accomplished this by getting as many runners on base as possible back, I really don’t care. My gripe is with those who point to this information and other factors as new revelation with the continued reference to advances stats and computer analysis. Read some of the articles that have been posted about more emphasis being placed on OBP than before with credit going to new analytic studies showing how well it works. Same with so many things now being talked about the game in those terms.
- Hence the reference to Bill James explaining about Fulton County Stadium and my friend’s reaction about this new study showing specifically why more home runs were hit there than in other parks when Hank Aaron figured this out the first day he took batting practice.
- Hence my reference to one having credited Sandy Alderson as having the foresight to select Terry Steinbach, Mark McGwire and Jose Canseco due to sabremetrics while all scouts said statistics on raw talent were completely useless.
- Hence my reference to Paul DePedosta being credited for the trades made almost immediately upon his becoming the Dodgers general manager by use of sabremetrics (and not those baseball people under him) and hired by Sandy Alderson as VP of Player Personnel and Development, praising him for his work in San Diego while the Padres best the Padres did with him in the front office was to win the western division crown with an 82-80 record.
- Hence my reference to Billy Beane credited with keeping Oakland a powerhouse via money ball after losing Giambi and Damon despite Tony LaRussa backing up my original contention that he still had a great team despite them and that with their not just great but dominating pitching staff and other returning regulars they could afford the loss of those two hitters.
- Hence my reference to that sabremetric website telling Yogi Berra he had a good 1957 when he said it was lousy.
- Hence my reference to that show on MLB contending advanced stats proves Jeff Bagwell to be the fifth greatest first baseman of all time.
- Hence my reference to Lastings Miledge projected to have a good major league career without taking into account his attitude problem.
- Hence my reference to Bill James’ prediction of about 28 home runs for Jason Bay in Citi Field without considering the effect it already had on Met hitters and the reaction from visiting opponents.
Even if we disagree on this, you can understand why I feel the way I do.
Again all of this mumbo jumbo you just typed has nothing to do with the original point you made by saying the difference between a hitter with a 384 OBP and a 320 OBP is minimal and over exagerated.
I don’t know how that orignal point ends up being about Billy Beane, Sandy Alderson, Terry Steinbach, Jason Giambi, Mark McGwire, Sabermetrics, advanced stats, yada yada yada.
If you think one player out of nine gets on base 38 more times than the average player is minimal and over exaggerated, then by all means continue to think that way. I find that to be poor logic.
still running from my questions I see…
I wonder why?
Fonzi,
What started out as a critique on how stats and computer analysis can make small differences in players seem gigantic, beginning with OBP, slowly expanded into other facets of the game as the continued reference to stats came more and more into the discussion. Thus what started out with an OBP went to Ed Charles and Oakland’s early first round draft picks.
Referring to one’s OBP percentage being 64 points higher than the league to show how far better that player’s ability is at getting on base would not hold much merit with those who play the game itself since it only equates to getting on base just additional time every four games, or 39 times over a course of a season. Those additional times to first base obviously presents 39 more opportunities to help create a run or even a series of runs per season but in the realm of 600 plate appearances it shows that difference between many players is less than statistics make it appear. Same with a .300 hitter compared to a .260 hitter in 600 at bats – 24 hits, or one more over a spread of seven games.
Percentages are different than home run, rbi, stolen base accumulations,etc. and do not paint an accurate picture of one’s overall talent. So when one hears ball players talking about the game, it’s in terms of how the players mesh together and one’s individual talent, like a pitcher’s grip, deceptive motion, ability to paint the corners, a batter’s wrist action, batting eye, the ability of a base runner to read a pitcher’s motion to get that extra split second jump off first, a catcher’s ability to block pitches thrown in the dirt, an outfielder’s strong throwing arm making runners hesitant to take an extra base, a fielder being able to tell how well a ball is hit by the sound of the ball coming off the bat, one’s lack of speed on the base path slowing down other runners….. and all that other type of mumbo jumbo. It’s not about batting averages, on base percentages, WAR, OPS, etc.
That is the logic of baseball. Those who really understand and appreciate the game don’t need to think about it in terms of stats other than for the record books.
“What the research showed is that the one constant for scoring runs is to get on base at a high rate and that’s why it’s being emphasized by most teams now as opposed to just a few teams years ago.”
Fonz,
Forgot to add that your comment again refers to research. Does that mean teams that didn’t emphasize getting on base years ago couldn’t see this type of strategy being used successfully by their opponents? That they couldn’t figure out how others were scoring and how to then prevent that during the course of a game? Of course not. Managers have to utilize the talent they have on hand. How often do we certain teams stranding a lot more runners on base than others? How often do we see a team having less base runners and hits but still scoring by bunching their hits and walks – a very difficult task to perform? What works for one team might not work with others. What does a team do that has very little speed? Just questions, not an opinion.
Again, I’m not taking a stand one way or the other about this particular type of strategy as it is the emphasis on modern day analysis being a source of revelation (my own word) — after all, you just said “What the research showed is that the one constant for scoring runs is to get on base at a high rate”…. and that becomes a total fallacy when adding “and that’s why it’s being emphasized by most teams now as opposed to just a few teams years ago.”
Other teams were not blind to how opponents were scoring their runs.
joey, Don’t humor him….there is NO research!
I did it for the last 5 years and the amount of OBP has absoloutly NO RELATION to the amount of Runs a team scored!
NONE!
You can’t even say who the top 10 RS teams are by looking at OBP!
You can however figure out who is top 10 by merely looking at RBI which had a 100% correlation to RS leaders!
Here is a link to the research i did…
http://metsmerizedonline.com/2011/10/does-ops-correlate-better-to-runs-scored-than-rbi.html
It shows OBP correlates badly when compared to RBI and even worse than two other metrics!
There is no research that has ever been presented to prove it does anything better in regards to RS and can only show who got on base more than someone else!
RS and RBI are just different halves of the same event and simply serve to record different ends of the same thing, no different than goals/baskets do toward assists.
Yes they are all awards from the same thing but awarded for different acts that a player can achieve which may be more important than the other in the end result!
Sometimes the same player gets awarded both for the same act!
But not always!
They are very different!
One may seem dependent on the other but since RS is the GOAL it doesn’t really matter than RBI is the same thing because from what your saying RBI IS THE GOAL then 100% of the time!
Not the OB which may or may not be an act that results in the goal you want!
I know it’s just another attempt to cloud the issue and steer away from the OBP FAILURE by turning this into a debate about RBI!
All I’m saying is the teams who have more score more runs and the teams that have more OBP don’t do that consistently!
This is about how TRUE this Higher OBP = Higher RS myth is!
And it is about as true a story as Pinocchio with Fonzie and Xtreeme’s nose growing to monumental proportions!
I don’t care what an RBI is, doesn’t matter!
OBP doesn’t correlate AT ALL!
OB doesn’t correlate at all?
Not at all as far as RS is concerned!
There is no order or rhyme or reason in the OBP numbers to the ranking and numbers of RS, It is all over the board!
No correlation whatsoever!
Some teams with good OBP score lots of runs and some don’t!
Some teams with lower OBP score lots of runs and more than someone with a higher OBP and some do not!
OBP does not correlate to RS AT ALL!
Hi Metsi,
My position in this discussion is only in regards to advanced statistical analysis being construed as revealing things baseball insiders didn’t already know and taking the game to a higher level.
One example is the contention by many that through Bill James computer analysis we found out that where the fielder is positioned is actually more important than who is pitching on the mound. Now James is completely right. Fielders must know how to adjust themselves pitcher by pitcher as well as batter by batter. But is this new? Not at all. I’ve seen managers and coaches signaling fielders to take even just a few steps toward a certain direction since I was a kid.
Now, pythagorean winning percentage is an estimate of a team’s winning percentage given their runs scored and runs allowed that was developed by Bill James to ascertain when teams were a bit lucky or unlucky. So what does that reveal? Do we need pythagorean winning percentage to tell us the Yankees were lucky to win that game when Castillo dropped that ordinary popup? Or that the Mets were unlucky and lost game one of the 2000 world series because Timo Perez was thrown out at home plate since he didn’t run hard thinking Ziele’s two out double in the sixth inning was going over the fence?
Notice the cynicism about Ed Charles being a vital contribution to the 1969 Mets? Those focusing on his .200 batting average lost sight of what his experience, maturity and understanding of what younger, inexperienced players were going through and didn’t know of yet. That’s having no conception of what value this veteran on his last legs meant to a team of youngsters. That value is still being missed by those who equate getting rid of veteran players who are helping a young team to learn, mature, develop better habits, experience winning , finishing up with a respectable winning record and building up confidence to carry into the following season as being less important to building for the future as getting a highly rated prospect.
Data is a valuable as storage of information that players and managers can rely upon better in lieu of memory. It doesn’t tell them something they were not already aware of. All pitchers know to a great extent who pulls the ball more on what, who can be fooled on certain pitches in certain count situations, who adjusts his swing more on two strikes, who has a better knowledge of the strike zone, etc. The computer can give them all those details and more at a glance. I
That’s my gripe – the discussion by many is all about what the computer research reveals. It is not about the things discussed by players or shared with us on MLB Network’s 30 team series.
I think there were managers that intuitively knew the value/harm in walks or the waste that bunts are for the most part but the Earl Weavers and Billy Martins were the exception.
Gene Mauch managed for years and years and never won a pennant, sac bunting all the way
Yeah and well who didn’t already know that if you could predict the future and put your players right where the ball was going to be hit you would win more games?
The problem is Bill James’ discovery then went onto hopw by lookig at past events you could predict the future…
You can’t you can only make a better guess!
And people have been making those positionings long before Bill James ever opened a spreadsheet and wrote a book!
The stuff in James’ book is not much more than putting all the data managers used to keep in their head into an easily searchable computer printout so those who aren’t smart enough or have a good enough knowledge can still make a decent guess!
Well said, Metsi.
It’s the storage of data one always had in his or her head – long before Bill James even opened up a scorecard.
I’m not sure if James is responsible for this fascination with figures more than it is those who adopted it. James is a noted baseball historian who has written many books filled with rich and wonderful antidotal stories about the game that has nothing to do with figures and analysis but simply how they played the game. If one based his or her knowledge on the game by talking about stats, then they would know nothing at all about how wonderful the 1962 Mets were to watch and follow.
T,
Gene Mauch blew the 1964 pennant by panicking and having his starting pitchers begin throwing on two days rest with a 6-1/2 game lead with 12 to go. That’s really wasting.
Even his players admitted he started doing things wrong down the stretch.
I was too young back in ’64 but I hear all about it.
All those years it followed him everywhere and he never could get one. The toughest of all was the collapse with the Angels in the ALCS.