23
2012
Defensive Runs Saved Passes The Eye Test
An article by Craig Lerner
Anthony DiComo of MLB.com takes a look at the Mets defense through the eyes of John Dewan is always finding new ways to analyze defensive metrics, which have come a long way quite recently.
One thing DiComo aptly points out is the “unorthodox depth chart of the Mets” and how their unique circumstances and personnel mix have created a “bizarre mashup of fielders playing out of position.” That could make for a wildly interesting calvacade of defensive blunders this summer.
By most measures the Mets were a poor defensive team last season, ranking 25th in fielding percentage and last in Fangraphs.com’s Ultimate Zone Rating, a more advanced — though equally flawed in small samples — measure of defensive worth. The Mets also ranked 28th in statistician John Dewan’s Defensive Runs Saved system, as chronicled in Dewan’s triennial “Fielding Bible.”
Dewan is one the pioneers behind revolutionizing the way defense is measured, and on a few occasions I’ve posted on his Defensive Runs Saved system right here on MMO. What I didn’t know until I read DiComo’s article, was that most of the 30 MLB teams rely on Dewan’s data to assist in making their own organization decisions with regards to player defense.
Quite honestly, it’s refreshing to see that most front offices have finally evolved where Advanced Metrics are concerned, and are taking full advantage of the incredible amount of much more precise data which can be used to evaluate players from college through the draft, and from the lowest level of the Minors all the way to the Major Leagues.
Measuring defense has always been the toughest of all things to accurately assess, and that’s because of the many variations between ballpark factors, defensive positioning, range, arm strength, and about two dozen other individualized factors that make every singular defensive play so unique.
Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) has surpassed the age old standard of Fielding Percentage on a wide scale, but it still has some flaws and doesn’t tell you much about a player if you’re only looking at small sample size like a year or two.
Defensive Runs Saved is a step up in my opinion and that’s why I like to rely it whenever I can. (So does Bill James)
“We’re at the point where we think we’ve really got a good handle on measuring defense,” Dewan said. “It was always the holy grail of ‘How can you figure out how to measure defense?’ And we think we’ve reached a very good spot now where we’ve got a good handle on measuring defense.”
I believe we are still a long way from finding the perfect defensive measure, if one ever comes to pass at all. But using the ones that are available now, certainly tells an MLB executive far more about a player’s defensive capabilities than those old that old stand-by Fielding Percentage whose results rarely seemed to match the eye test.
Incidentally, the Mets ranked ranked 28 in Dewan’s Defensive Runs Saved system last season, and you can expect that to possibly get worse now with so many Mets playing out of position on an everyday basis.
Last season, as I reported here in an earlier post, the Mets middle-infield defense was ranked the worst in baseball, while Ike Davis was ranked the best defensive first baseman in 2010.
You see what I mean about DRS passing the eye test?
About the Author: Craig Lerner
I'm a data analyst and researcher for a leading news agency who loves life and is hooked on the Mets. I love following the Amateur Draft and have a particular fondness for the Mets Minor Leagues who I follow each day. Give me a cold beer, a summer day, and a Mets game, and I'm good to go.
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Maybe you haven’t heard, but defense doesn’t really matter to this front office. If it did Thole wouldn’t be catching and Murphy would be on third not second.
Hmmm see I guess we see differently there Maniac (shocked face?) to me, I’d rather have a defensive liability at 2B over 3B any day.
Why would you want to put a defensive liability at a position known as the “hot corner” instead of putting him at 2B?
I’m actually very pro defense but if you ask me to pick 2B-3B-SS and put 1 defensive liability in the field, I’m taking 2B every time.
So to me, if you’re calling Murph a liability at 2B and your answer is moving him to 3B, I’m sorry but that is not a great idea. For Wright’s faults, he’s been playing 3B for years at the big league level.
Murphy just isn’t a good fielder, putting him at 3B isn’t going to turn him into some magically better fielder just because he happened to play that position in college and AA.
You say Murph would be at 3B if defense mattered? How do you know? Wright is quicker than Murph, so maybe Murph would commit fewer errors (not by much) but he’d get to less balls than Wright does. That has to count for something no?
If you hit 100 balls to 3B and you make 10 errors and I make 15, but I got to 20 balls you couldn’t reach and made outs on them – who is the better 3B?
Murph appeared at 3B in 28 big league games. He committed 4 errors. In AA baseball, Murph committed 13 errors in 64 games and in A ball he committed *35 errors* at 3B.
He’s just not a good fielder, and I’d much rather him at 2B than 3B.
I’d rather not have him on the field altogether. IMO he’s nothing more than a DH.
Of course we see differently. sometimes you dont even see things at all. Where is your evidence that Murphy is as bad a fielder at 3B than 2B when everything I’ve seen and read say otherwise? 3B is Murphy’s natural and best defensive position and he displayed as much last season. Seeing is believing, Try watching games for a change.
So 28 big league games you’ve determined that Murphy is a better fielder than Wright at 3B?
You’re only saying that because you despise Wright.
Murphy had 4 errors in 60 chances at 3B. So in those 60 chances you’ve determined that he’s a better fielder at 3B? You’re talking just to hear yourself type.
Did you see Murph play 3B in the minors? In 2007 he had 35 errors and 424 chances, and in 2008 playing 3B 13errors and 177 chances.
You HAVE to admit that Wright is quicker than Murph right? I mean we’re not going to start debating that will we? So what about Murph says he’s a better 3b than Wright? Other than a bias against Wright?
Murph couldn’t even play LF well, which is usually where bad fielders hide out. Who cares if his “natural position” is 3B? If he’s not a good fielder at LF, 2B, 1B he’s not going to suddenly turn it around at 3B.
I disagree. You have to be strong up the middle. I have faith in Murphy becoming at least league average, but if he stays healthy and has a full enough season at 2B and continues to blow it, then he’s gotta go. You always put your weaker defender at 3B insted of 2B if that’s the decision you’re faced with.
I guess for me honestly it depends on the situation. If I have a solid fielding SS with great range, I’d be okay with being weaker at 2B than 3B. If I have a weak fielding SS than yeah I want a solid 2B for the middle.
My priority is to have the entire infield be good defensively, I just think a slightly below average 2B fielder can get you further along than having a slightly below average 3B therefore I’d prefer to focus on 3B’s defensive talent first.
True enough. I wanted Murphy at 2B last year because of his bat. Mets were tremendous defensively in 2010 and weak with the bat, so in that particular situation, I wanted Murphy in there to essentially rob Peter and pay Paul. For some reason, with the same cast of characters last year, the team did a complete 180. I still think Murphy should get the shot because he’s better all-around than Turner, but his leash is a lot shorter now that *presumably* the fences will *fix* Wright and Bay and Ike is back healthy and Duda will play for a full season.
If the Mets were 6th in scoring and last in defense in 2010, I’d have been parading Castillo’s name up and down this site last year, because you need to put the team in the best position to win, even if it’s not an ideal situation taken oiut of context.
It’s quite simple really. Anyone but Wright is the mantra. Murphy has played a whole 25 games at 3b but some deem him better by that sample size, simply because his name is not Wright.
Making claims that the FO wants nothing to do with defense, and in the same breath call for a guy that’s never really played to position to move over to 3rd.
You can’t make this up, I swear.
Thing is even in his small sample he still had a lot of errors if you averaged that out to an entire season.
That’s the on thing that bothers me about the saber minded executives. The all place very little value in defense. They may be right about offense and pitching being more valuable than defense but being weak up the middle is a whole different story. You have to at least be strong up the middle. I don’t think you can win with Josh Thole behind the plate and Murphy at 2nd. Again last week Murphy almost got killed on a SB attempt.
It’s not just the mets that felt that way it has long been ignored by the sabermetricians because they don’t trust the metrics they have come up with.
Ask Martin he will tell you Defense doesn’t matter!
I commend the Sabermetric attempt to come up with a defensive metric and even commend them on admitting they aren’t done cooking yet.
It just underscores the point that while Sabers may be widely used and a new way of looking at things it is still very much a work in progress and not comprehensive enough to just abandon the traditionals entirely!
Statisitcal analysis will never EVER be the only thing required for evaluation. Unfortunatly there are many who refuse to acknowledge that and some who even refuse to admit that just because a Metric exists doesn’t make it a good metric!
Craig at least did note this about UZR which I give credit for the honesty!
Thats all I really ask for from someone who spouts stats ad infinitum! (not referring to you there craig just posters in general)
I am not a big fan of UZR. To me it’s too subjective. Even how a manager positions the defensive players could change their score. What if you have a guy like Murphy at 1B learning the position and being way to aggressive. Sure he gets to balls out of his zone but how many were plays that should have been the 2B? Does that lower the 2B score?
You made a very good oint about Murphy there!
Most of his errors last year were errors of exhuberance not fielding prowess!
You can say he has sketchy baseball instincts which I say is a result of being thrown into three positions in the course of two years…
But it’s not his glove that is the actual problem with his MLB recorded errors…
I didn’t see him in the Minors so I can’t say what his issue was there but I can count at least 4 or 5 errors he had last year that were the result of not trying to do more than he should have once he caught the ball…
the rest were all based on bad hops to first that he should have dug out which is hardly something you can blame a guy with his 1B experience much for.
Sorry should read result of trying to do more…
There is no doubt that Murphy is a bad defender at every position. I don’t feel sorry for him though. He did not put the time and effort in before. He viewed himself as a hitter and obviously spent all his time working on hitting. I see it with basketball all the time. Working hours on your shot, forget about defense. Then you have a bench player unless you are incredible on offense.
That being said the Mets did not help the matter, they actually encouraged it. Placing him in LF with almost 0 experience in the OF and saying ok go be the starter on a competitive team. Well obviously he got the message that defense doesn’t matter. Then it was ok go play 1B, I know you have never played it but hell with it, learn on the job. At least with 2B there was an attempt to send him to winter league and to the minors to learn the position. Of course Wright goes down and what do they do? Move him to 3B again. He wasn’t even good at 3B in the minors and needed a tremendous amount of work even at that position but was robbed of that opportunity too. So for the Mets to place him at 2B this year it’s the most time they have given him to learn any position.
If that is true, doesn’t say much about the coaching going on down in the minors when he was coming up.. Should be their responsibility to make sure they’re developing in all aspects of the game.
Heard Keith talking about Murph during one broadcast. Said one of the biggest things he’s got to learn at 2nd base is what balls are his, which ones are Ike’s. Said when he played first, he saw him going to far over to 2nd to try and field balls that the second baseman should be fielding.
Here’s hoping Teufel is doing some good working with him.
I fully support the notion that every player should be taught at minimum two positions in the Minors!
IFs should also learn and play the OF a good portion of the time!
OFers learn to play IF as well!
It would make for better players in the long run and more flexability for the front office.
Unfortunatly while we ;look at the Minors as some sort of advanced baseball school the truth of the matter is these are privatly owned clubs in many cases merely under contract to an MLB team and they have their own financial and success issues they must contend with!
While MLB teams help subsidize them and maybe even pay a lot of the expenses they incurr they still have to play well and draw personnel like any other league does!
Not only that but 2-3 seasons in the minors will not make up for not focusing on defense from age 6-22.
No it won’t but thats why I cringe when I hear words like TOOLS which says to me he can catch hit or throw but maybe still can’t use them!
I have a whole set of welding tools too but that doesn’t mean I can weld professionally! LOL
Agreed.
That is what I saw to. If you remember Murphy was one of the leaders in UZR at 1B. I always said that was because he kept taking plays away from Castillo LOL.
Well as I said most of his errors were due to not knowing what to do with the ball once he fielded it, it wasn’t that he didn’t catch balls hit to him half of his screwups were throwing errors and the rest were at 2B and Digging balls out of the dirt!
His biggest defensive knock is mostly range…and the bad positioning on plays because he didn’t know where he was supposed to be and those didn’t even get recorded as errors!
Each position has a very different responsibility in regards to what to do with a ball that comes to you. A 1st baseman is the cutoff man on balls hit to RF, At least two of his recorded errors were based on that role.
2B is the cutoff man on throws from RF to 3B, Most of Murphy’s greatest unrecorded blunders were in that role!
His errors at third can all be attributed to having little time there…
The bottom line is most of his problems were instinctual and it’s hard to act on instinct if the instict is requiring changes from position to position!
And that mostly where Murphy’s problems were!
That and trying to do more than the routine leading to doing nothing because it was the wrong thing to try and do!
I don’t get this Thole hatred. That’s why you can’t use a flawed memory as basis for analysis. Thole was good in 2010. Why use his worst season as be-all end-all of the rest of his career? Use 2012 as the decision maker. Which Thole is the real Thole?
I suppose he said most of the MLB teams us this metric because it’s a bit obviously we haven’t! LOL
There will never be a statistical analysis that is ever perfect! Even the best intentioned attempt at weighting events, opportunities, and pass/fail will throw in some measure of personal subjective opinion that will not apply across the MLB board.
Even the events that DO get recorded are skewed by subjective opinions of those who make the scoring decisions! How many times have you seen what should clearly be a hit get recorded as an out or an error, Or the converse, guy gets a hit despite the fact it probably should have been recorded an error. It’s all based on the subjective opinion of the scorer for that game!
In the case of Defense this is a bit more amplified as better fielders get to more balls than the average player, and many times can get awarded an error for a ball he had no business getting to in the first place! on the converse some less ranged players make less errors merely because they never get close enough to a play they probably should and since they didn’t even get close enough to touch the ball get a pass on being awarded an error!
I already discussed the problems with batting
But one of the most important cases of subjective influence in stats is that which occurs with Pitching!
All of the pitcher’s numbers (and some of the batters) are dependent on an Umpire correctly calling Balls and Strikes! It is the most argued calls you see in baseball! Almost as old as baseball itself!
How many times have you said to yourself where was that pitch that was just called a ball?
How many times have you seen a ball called a strike?
All those bad calls are part of the variables used in statisitcal analysis true or not!
Now that doesn’t mean doing Statistical analysis is useless and pointless, Just that it is not quite as reliable as some think and never will be!
And while the response to that is so what it’s the same for all players think about this…
How many times did a guy like Albert Pujols get the benefit of the doubt on a 3-2 pitch on the black?
You need to use more than just statistical analysis, It’s good for showing trends of a player and good for showing average of a player but you also need to see and look at that player before you can understand a thing those statisticts tell you!
Because a Reyes with 18 Errors is still a better SS than some other guy with less range and fewer errors!
Stats can give you the hints, But you still have to look at the player to know just how true that hint is!
I’ve been yelling about “brick-hands” Murphy for two years now. Any half witted baseball fan knows that defense “up the middle” is key to any teams chances. The Mets are famous for banging square pegs into round holes i.e. Gregg Jeffries, Keith Miller, Juan Samuel, Hojo, and the famous Todd Hundley in left field experiment. Add to that, Murphy is a horrible base runner and has no athletic ability or middle infielders rhythm. So the guy can bang out some singles and doubles and tries really hard. BIG DEAL! That doesn’t win you a good deal of games. Prep the Met hall of fame right now! Stop the whole…”He’s one of ours” garbage and see him for what he is…a DH!
Metsr1 — The “Hate Murphy” wiz at the computer keyboard surfaces every opportunity he gets to bash a player he hates. Talk real baseball, not just spilling your bile at one player. BTW, you just might have been the kid who was always picked last and stuck in right field in pickup games. Time for you to get over it.
P.S.: A guy who can manipulate a bat the way Daniel Murphy does is not someone with brick hands or lacks athleticism. Hall of Famer Rogers Hornsby, a lifetime .358 hitter, expressed his opinion about the value of solid offensive players over gifted glovemen. “Give me the hitters anytime” he said. “Good fielders you can catch falling out of trees.”
I’ll out play you any day of the week. Coming from someone who obviously knows zero about the game, I’ll take your comments with a grain of salt. Anyone that can’t see Murphy “the stiff” for an all hit, no glove player is a loser. You sir are a loser! Stop apologizing for that butcher and talk to me after he bobbles a ball that cost the Mets a game or two. Or for that matter, getting to a ball that a real 2B gets to and makes it look easy at that. I’ll be here after every bobble, posting to you personally!
Metsr1, I think you’ll find this interesting, notice the date before reading as Des quotes another genius by the name of Xtreem here:
Des November 29, 2010 at 4:25 pm
“In a perfect world, Duda and Tejada wouldn’t see a day in the major leagues this year. Their game is not ready for it and they need more time. Unfortunately, the pickins is slim.”
So true. Add to what you say, in a perfect world, Ike would ride the pines until he straightened out his ridiculous slo-pitch software swing.”
So according to those 2 guys Duda and Tejada would not have played last season. Imagine that!! And Des had Ike Davis riding the pines…he also had Tejada riding the pines while Havens was starting at 2B 2 years ago.
But he defends Murphy at 2B – there u go
Here, Here! Good call Bayonne. Des is a blind fool.
By most measures the Mets were a poor defensive team last season”
I don’t need NUMBERS or computers or sabergeeks to tell me that… I WATCHED IT!!!!!!!!!
LOL, yeah and there are numbers to back that up too. Actually defense is so hard to use stats for that one of the main stats actually is people looking at them and then averaging out what people think. Can’t remember what it’s called.
I think that maybe UZR MIGHT be a decent measure to LOOK at when you are comparing players of the same position on teams you don’t get to see.
I know I watch 150-200 games a year but there is no way I see enough of a sample of the M’s players to know if they are any good defensively and errors and fielding percentage do not tell the entire story so what do you do? Just listen to the announcers?
trs, you don’t need to watch the games of every team to know whether they’re good or not, you see the highlites i am sure, they too tell you how bad a team is defensively, without looking at any stats i knew we were HORRIBLE defensively, i guess the numbers back what i saw!
Alex, I can’t say that highlights of ESPN or MLB show me much of anything about if a player is a good defender or not. They are only showing the highlight reel catches or really boneheaded plays.
So again, is the LF in Seattle a good defender? I barely, never-mind, do not even know his name.
Ouch, I just looked. It’s Mike Carp. In hindsight that trade turned out to be a stinker huh?
That trade got Heilman off the team. #win
Should have just released him LOL.
“On December 10, 2008, Carp was traded to the Seattle Mariners in a three-team trade which also included RHP J.J. Putz, RHP Sean Green and OF Jeremy Reed from the Mariners for RHP Aaron Heilman, OF Endy Chávez, LHP Jason Vargas, OF Ezequiel Carrera and RHP Maikel Cleto and sent RHP Joe Smith to the Indians.[3]”
I know the Putz moved seemed like a good one but it would be nice to have Carp, Vargas, Smith and Endy…
I know the Putz moved seemed like a good one but it would be nice to have Carp, Vargas, Smith and Endy…”
Second guessing now?? if i recall you were PRO this trade and even went after me when i said be careful what you wish for .. this guy is coming off injury season and we do not know how he’ll perform..
I never said i was against it. I said it turned out to be bad and it would be nice if we had it to do over again. That is not second guessing anymore than still whinning over one AB.
Well said. Des apparently watches the game on an old analog TV that is out of focus or needs glasses cause he sees greatness in mediocre players.
I would not bet that the FO is happy about having some defensively challeneged guys on the field (and they are on record as recognizing the fact they are weak there, and taking a chance).
But, who you play has a lot to do with who you have available. And you usually have to make trade offs (D vs. O a big one) when deciding which way to go, since there just aren’t than many guys that excel at both 9or at least, ones that are available and/or affordable!)
Personally, I don’t think defensive metrics (saber) is some kind of exact science. And that D is something you can readily “see”. But as always, the saber stuff isn’t about telling you who is better or worse. It is (in theory) telling you which guy leads to more wins. of course a better glove guy is, well, better, but at what point does greater O offset lower D?
With the Mets, I really don’t see the logic of moving Murphy to 3B when there is nothing in his past to indicate he is going to be a plus defender. Just because he will suck less at 3B than at 2B, doesn’t mean he should be at 3rd either! i also don’t expect the experiment to work out (at 2B), but desperate times/desperate measures.
at least the guys coming up behind the current crop all seem to be much more proficient at defense.
Again, reference to computer analysis bring out revelations about topics the professionals didn’t already know. We didn’t need any sabremetric formulas to tell us Met fielders were out of position – Keith and Ron so often tell us that right on the spot just from surmizing the situation and seeing where the fielders were positioned, especially with Murphy. And when he is in the broadcast booth Ralph often points fielders being out of position for the type of hitter and pitcher on the mound and disagreeing with the manager’s strategy.
I remember in 2008 when Lastings was with the Nationals. Either Keith, Ron or both pointed out that Miledge was playing way too deep in the outfield for a certain batter. Sure enough, a short fly dropped just in front of a running Lastings and the broadcasters went further to explain why that should not have happened.
I can’t blame the players for being out of position – I blame the manager and his coaches who are supposed to know how to one is to be played and observe where the fielders are situated in order to signal them when out of position. How many times have we seen a coach waving a towel to get a fielder’s attention? They can also just be poor at their job.
However, there is indeed a tremendous need for sabremetrics in this area top help teams position themselves for players they are unfamilair with. Had such information been available in July of 1969 Met history would have been quite different. Seaver and Grote’s main concerns were not how to pitch to Banks, Williams, Santo and Hundley – it was with Jimmy Qualls since they did not know how to pitch to him nor know what type of shift each player should take with his turns at bat.
So I’m all for that. But again, citing computer analysis as opening up a whole new undiscovered source of information is going over the top. Ron, Keith and Ralph don’t need a computer to know when one is out of position – even if that meant just taking a few extra steps one way or the other. That’s the beauty of their baseball knowledge. And they readily admit not knowing where to play one when unfamilar with the player – and that’s when the computer is essential! Otherwise, that computer analysis would probably just come to the same conclusions as Ralph, Keith and Ron would say.
I often think sabremetrics is more important for the fan to get a better understanding of the inside aspects of the game than those who actual play and manage it day in and day out.
Actually Joey computer analysis is really nothing more than getting SOME look at a guy you haven’t seen everyday!
Seeing him everyday will tell you a ton more about him than looking at his stats but since it is impossible to see every player and every play stats is merely a method of getting a look at something you would be better off seeing in person…
It nothing more than second hand information!
It’s better than nothing but it’s not as good as seeing it first hand!
Which is why Scouts still have jobs and still are regarded as a bit more reliable than statistical analysis by everyone whose head is stuck up the behind of a spreadsheet!
It helps to see things you weren’t physically able to see in person!
But it’s not the best way to evaluate a player when compared to seeing that player in person over the course of a full season!
[correction] “head is NOT stuck up the behind of a spreadsheet!”
I agree with all of this in that it’s good for comparison uses especially for players you haven’t seen. However I think it has it’s uses on your own team as well because your biases can cloud your judgement on players. I use stats of my own players all the time as a coach. Does that mean I use stats to pick my team? LOL, hell no. I don’t need to. However, do I look at stats to see if what I am seeing is actually what I am seeing sometimes? Yup.
it’s the old “some guys look like they should be good” problem.
basketball players, QBs, all fall into that.
even as a coach, say you have to guys you are looking at, and 1 is built like a prototypical player (tall, rangy, althletic) and the other is kinda dumpy looking, ungainly, etc. You are going to be predisposed to “know” the guy that looks the part is better. So always a good idea to look at #s for a more objective opinion.
Actually you know what it is good for?
Finding out who to go and see!
Thats my feeling on them!
You look at statsm whittle down the guys you think are worth looking at and then go and watch as many games as you can that he played in on tape or send a scout out there to see if the stats are really telling you something!
I for the life of me don’t understand why the MLB does not employ one scout to follow every team in the league (your talking 30 some odd guys) so that they can see every game of one team’s players and be able to say which ones are good or not!
It sure would help when you play them and trade for them!
keep in mind though that your eyes can deceive you. Situational bias (I think that is the name for it), seeing what you want to see, etc.
yes but you can weed out the biased observers…
Much more difficult to weed out the biased stats!
The ones that don’t tell you the situation at all so are even worse in regard to situational awareness of the recorded number.
Metsi,
We both agree on that.
My responsewas in reaction to Craig’s praising of Dewan, opening his post with “John Dewan is always finding new ways to analyze defensive metrics, which have come a long way quite recently” and following up with “Dewan is one the pioneers behind revolutionizing the way defense is measured, and on a few occasions I’ve posted on his Defensive Runs Saved system right here on MMO. What I didn’t know until I read DiComo’s article, was that most of the 30 MLB teams rely on Dewan’s data to assist in making their own organization decisions with regards to player defense.”
Craig, we know you are a data systems engineer and I hope my comments are not taken in the wrong way. An approximate percentage indicating runs saved is an interesting piece of information but it is more geared for those deeply interested in statistical analysis for it really doesn’t tell the baseball person anything he or she doesn’t already know – or needs to know in such minute detail. It definately would help when it provides details about how to position against an unfamilar batter until he gets better know. Sort of like Ron Swobada when he first came up in 1965. He hit homers off of everybody until they found out he could not hit a curve ball.
In fairness to the 69 coaching staff, there was no way to defend a little blooper in the left center gap. That was just a case of bad luck for Seaver. If h hits it a little higher, then maybe Cleon has time to get underneath it.
Hi Fonzi,
Nobody could be blamed for the Qualls hit. Back in those days the information on unknown players was nowhere as abundant as today. That’s why Grote and Seaver were more concerned with Jimmy than they were future hall of famers Ernie, Billy or Ron. They just did not know how to pitch against him which helps set the pattern for how the defense is placed.
Ever wonder what Randy Hundley’s legacy would be in New York had he broken up Tom’s quest for a perfect game with that bunt leading off the ninth? I think he would be villified for all Met eternity.
What’s up Joey.D!
Yeah bunting for a hit to try to break up a no hitter is against the unwritten rules of baseball. But in my opinion if it’s a close game and you’re trying to get on base when you’re trailing, that’s just too bad for the pitcher. The object is to win the game not worry about breaking up somebody’s single game accomplishment.
Justin Verlander got all pissed off last year when he was pitching a no hitter in a close game and someone, Aybar I think laid down a bunt but was scored an error. I don’t understand how he could get mad in a 2 run game when both teams are fighting for a playoff berth.HeI yelled in the Angels dugout and pointed to his ribs as if to say, you’re getting drilled next time I face you.
I think the Qualls thing was just a case of bad luck. He made a good pitch and Qualls got lucky. That’s a tough way to lose a perfect game.
The two best defenders on the Mets are Ruben Tejada and Ike Davis, everyone else is questionable or in decline. Johan and Dickey are also excellent defenders among our pitchers.
Hi Hodges,
Did you come to those conclusions based on DiCommo’s print-out or your own observations?
Actually, the more reseach I do regarding computer analysis in regards to basebal, the more I truly believe that the importance of such information is better equipped for programmng it into MLB 2012 so the software can truly recreate the talents of the players and team as closely as possible.
I think you’re onto something there Joey D
They confuse fantasy baseball with reality.
great comment
Hi Bayonne,
Yeah, it just occured to me. I mean, I was thinking of what use would all these mundane and precise to the umpteenth decimal point statistics be useful for? I suddenly realized it could be programmed into software and I bet that’s exactly what is done.
Saw a recent article where Ruben Amaro Jr. was saying the Phillies rely more on their judgement than computer analysis and they’ve had a pretty good run. I’m still looking to find that article I read a while back regarding the take on advanced computer analysis by different team executives.
Joey, Vinny B once posted this information and I hope Vinny doesn’t mind me reposting it here, maybe this is what you’re talking about?
The use of saber in the MLB is overated.
Former Angels GM Bill stoneman:
“We look at OPS, but it isn’t the sole deciding factor to whether we want a guy or not. What it is, it’s a measure of offense. Shoot, if we only looked at OPS, a year ago we wouldn’t have gone with Scott Spiezio as our first baseman.What we rely on very heavily are our own judgments and the judgments of our scouting people. We’re a scouting organization, and we really lean on our pro scouts as to what they see in a player. It’s really not what the guy did last year; it’s what you think he’s going to do this year or in the future.”
White Sox GM kenny Williams:
“I lean on my scouts, first and foremost. After my scouts tell me this is a player we should have interest in, I’ve got a few different methods in how we come to decisions.
I’m an old football guy, so I believe in film. I’ve spent a lot of hours watching film and breaking down some of the things numbers don’t tell you that scouts can’t see with the naked eye.”
former d-backs GM Joe Garagiola Jr:
“Maybe I’m hopelessly old school in this regard, but to me statistics that you can derive from sort of the basic building blocks I think have real value. I look at ‘Baseball Prospectus’ from time to time, and some of those stats are so arcane, dense, impenetrable–whatever the word you want to use is. I guess this is meaningful to somebody, but not me. It drills down so deeply, it’s like, ‘OK, when you hit the bottom, there are three people in the world that this matters to.’ ”
And those guys actually WON something unlike Billy Beane.
HOF GM Pat Gillick:
“I think you have to watch the game. The statistics tell you one thing and they don’t want anything happening emotionally on the field or anything on the field to really tinker with those statistics sometimes. So I think you have to use both. … I think you have to see the player and you have to see him on the field—how he plays the game. Is he intense? Does he have passion? Get his body language. See how he interacts with the other players on the team.”
special assistant to Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr Charley Kerfeld:
“I think defensive statistics are the most unpredictable stats there are. And since I’ve been here, we don’t have an in-house stats guy and I kind of feel we never will. We’re not a statistics-driven organization by any means. I’m not against statistics. Everybody has their own way of doing things. But the Phillies believe in what our scouts see and what our eyes tell us and what our people tell us.”
Pirates GM Neal Huntington: (example of saber failure
“We are going to utilize several objective measures of player performance to evaluate and develop players. We’ll rely on the more traditional objective evaluations: OPS (on base percentage plus slugging percentage) , WHIP (walks and hits per inning pitched), Runs Created, ERC (Component ERA), GB/FB (ground ball to fly ball ratio), K/9 (strikeouts per nine innings), K/BB (strikeouts to walks ratio), BB%, etc., but we’ll also look to rely on some of the more recent variations: VORP (value over replacement player), Relative Performance, EqAve (equivalent average), EqOBP (equivalent on base percentage), EqSLG (equivalent slugging percentage), BIP% (balls put into play percentage), wOBA (weighted on base average), Range Factor, PMR (probabilistic model of range) and Zone Rating.
That said, we will continue to stress the importance of our subjective evaluations. Succinctly stated, we believe that a combination of quality objective and subjective analysis will allow us to maximize our probability of success and to make the best possible decisions.”
http://pittsburgh.pirates.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20071101&content_id=2290860&vkey=news_pit&fext=.jsp&c_id=pit
Look at how sabermetrics are helping the Pirates. Huntington has been their GM since 07, and every year they had over 90 loses, and last year they lost 100 games.
Of course you have to use both, every one of these guys said they use both. Using one by itself would be a failure. Even in Oakland or Pittsburgh or here you think they sign guys sight unseen and have no scouts? Do you think the Angels have no stat guys? None of this is new. Most all of us know you need both in today’s game.
What I did find interesting was the Pirates comment of the following stats being “traditional”, in other words ones that EVERYONE uses.
“We’ll rely on the more traditional objective evaluations: OPS (on base percentage plus slugging percentage) , WHIP (walks and hits per inning pitched), Runs Created, ERC (Component ERA), GB/FB (ground ball to fly ball ratio), K/9 (strikeouts per nine innings), K/BB (strikeouts to walks ratio), BB%, etc.,”
As I have said all along some of these stats are not “saber” stats and you would be laughed out of any true saber discussion for using some of them. Luckily I don’t find myself in to many saber discussions. I don’t like using any stat that I can’t take the numbers and figure out for myself. To me it then becomes a little dubious. Most of these above are just another version of BA and ERA they are just averages and ratios of pieces of the game that if you use a large enough sample can help you predict what they will do in the future. Isn’t that what BA and ERA do as well?
If you read my post I said the use of sabemetrics in the MLB is overrated. All the GM’s(except the Pirates guy) didn’t say they used it. th Angels guy said he used OPS, but like you said, that’s not really sabermetrics.
Anyway, my main pont is that there are many teams and GM’ that don’t buy into the sabermetric philosophy(TheTwins are another one). Sure they use some stats, but they don’t buy into sabermetric thinking like AA or Lerner does.
Right but I think this site needs a definition of what a saber or advanced metric is.
Calling a team Saber minded because they focus on OBP is absolutely insane. Obviously every team wants their players to get on base a lot.
In the last 18 months or so, I’ve completely changed my position on how I view sabermetrics.
Mostly that’s because while I was in the process of learning more about it so I could debunk some of it, I instead found myself looking at many of these stats as very useful. I discovered a new-found appreciation for a lot of them.
Forget defense, and let me stick to offense here.
I’m a long time fan that goes back to the early seventies. I can assure all of you that on-base percentage was around back then and I can still hear Lindsay Nelson talking about it with Ralph Kiner during a broadcast.
I was watching a Mets Yearbook over the Winter and Bob Murphy was narrating and talking about the newest Met Keith Hernandez. Murphy lauded Mex and said first and foremost that he was one of the NL’s best players in on-base pct. I nearly choked on my iced tea.
There was no mention of clutch, but he did get rave reviews on defense.
When they build better TV’s people buy them with no complaints. When they build better cars the same thing happens. Why is there such resistance to building a better way to analyze players so that organizations can make better decisions and in doing so make fewer costlier mistakes?
Why is that so bad?
well you maybe have changed your stance in 18 months but as a Mets fan if you now think OBP is more important than maybe you haven’t learned in the last several years about the Mets blowing golden opportunities to win games and go into the post season by not driving in runs at the most important times (just talking offense here nothing else). Sure the guys were on base but it means NOTHING if u can’t drive them in so that will never change.
And at the beginning of last year it was Keith himself who said on a telecast that he did not like this “new philosophy” and you heard him and Gary, especially Keith complain about the lack of aggressiveness the Mets were showing.
So go ahead and get all caught up and change your priorities in what’s important it’s not gonna change the fact that if you want the Mets to win they better change their culture of leaving men on base in important spots. You should be VERY familiar with that.
JoeD!
I don’t know how old you are but if you’re in your mid to late 40′s like myself, you’ll remember many Met games in the early to mid 70′s where Ralph Kiner would touch on how important OB% is. Even to this day he still brings it up in the few broadcasts he does a year. He was the one to first person to get me to believe OB% is more important than batting average. He would often talk about Branch Rickey telling him just that. And OB% is not a saberstat. It’s been around since Branch Rickey was evaluating players for the Cardinals and Dodgers. AAlthough I thought he started to in the 40′s. the below link says 30′s
http://www.sfexaminer.com/sports/teams/as/2011/09/general-manager-billy-beane-thrifty-no-genius
And just for the record, I’m not all that much into sabermetrics except for a handful of stats I find to be more useful than traditionals but make no mistake about OB% and Slug% guru’s have been arounnd long before the saber revelation.
I feel that they aren’t better. I feel that they either don’t tell you more than what you already know, or are conmpletly flawed. Like WAR.
WAR isn’t awful for a career, but for a single season it’s completly flawed. Mainly because it uses UZR, which takes three years to be accurate. How can you judge a players single season with a stat that takes three years to be accurate? You can’t.
Oh and Fonzie, Kiner also said during one game that he did not like saber stats like WAR and stats like FIP.
BTW, during a game, I think it was two years ago, Gary and Ron Darling destoryed the BABIP theory.
I don’t really pay any mind to WAR or UZR. There’s 2 or 3 different ineterpretations of WAR., UZR like you said takes 3 years and if you’re trying to evaluate a bench players defense you might not get the true picture.
Vinny – Kiner and Hernandez also lement at great lengths about how passive batters have gotten in hitters counts due to all the focus on OBP!
Guys with 2-0 and 3-0 counts just taking piped fastballs they could have crushed if they were not playing to the OBP!
What Keith said that Friday night in Houston was what are these guys looking for. Up 2-0, 3-1 in the count you should always be looking fastball and ready to hamme. It was Gary Cohen who asked Keith if he thought it was because of all the talk about OB% that these guys are trying to work walks to raise their OB%. Keith wasn’t sure one way or another but he did say you need to be aggressive in hitters counts, especially with mmen on base and I couldn’t agree more. They did go on a long stretch of good offense not too long after that night. Dave Magadan was the same way. He constantly took fastballs right down the middle up in the count and it drove Rusty Staub nuts.
I remember that Vinny. Gary asked Ronnie. Don’t pitchers create their own luck? They weren’t in agreement with it but I wouldn’t say they destroyed it. David Cone is totally pro saber on Yankee telecasts. He explains the different stats that are being used nowadays. Some players are pro, some are against.
WTF?!???!?!??!!!??!??
You trying to have a normal conversation with me? Not sure I can cope with that! LOL
In any case to be clear it was Kiner who said it was an over focus on OBP. He didn’t really say it was a bad thing just not something anyone who was a great hitter would do!
“great Hitters want to hit not walk” to paraphrase….
It’s not so bad. Completely ignoring them out right will put any organization at a disadvantage. I believe, as others have stated that everyone is using them to some extent or other.
Ignoring them out right would be as stubborn as those who refused to except horse less carriages or, talkie pictures.
Call it progress or perpetually evolving or what have you but the game of baseball is never going to stan still. Franchises will always be looking for every and any advantage.
I always try to have normal conversations, it’s when there’s a difference of opinion is when the conversation veers off track.
Back to Ralph. It could be a combination of being to passive, trying to work counts ,some hitters can do that ala Giambi, Piazza. It’s also some hitters are looking for the wrong pitch instead of always looking fastball and hitters counts and adjusting oof the fastball. And then sometimes it’s just a great pitcher making his pitch in a hitters count. I’m sure it’s a combination of all.
Ralph also said something that I totally disagreed with. “Sometimes a walk is better than a hit.” When Gary asked how, he said because you’re getting the pitcher tired by working up his pitch count and you’re still getting on base. I’ll never agree with a walk being better than a hit. You can get a hit on the 9th pitch of an at bat and you can walk on 4 pitches. The AB with the hit saw more pitches. I’ll never agree with that. A walk is never better than a hit.
I’m not big about walking over hitting either Fonzie but many times I’ve gotten my pitch after having taken ball four the previous AB.
That’s 90% of the benefit of walking IMO.
I know what you’re saying. That’s more the reason why guys with high OB% are more highly sought after than in years before. It’s not just because the player walks more, it’s his patience and discipline. The great hitters walk more than the good hitters and much more than the bad hitters because they swing at their pitch. I can’t think of any bad hitters that get on base at a high rate and the ones who’s avg’s are below average usually hit with a lot of power or else they’ll be pulling splinters outta their asses.
“Calling a team Saber minded because they focus on OBP is absolutely insane.”
Nobody is saying that.
they all use it. Just call it different things and come up with it on their own.
No, they don’t. Do you have proof of this? Or are you just assuming they all do? Because I have quotes here saying that some teams don’t use it.
you missed the point. All teams are doing the same thing that saber does. Looking at all the data available, and trying to figure out which attributes (and by extension which players) will lead to more wins. Don’t have to call it war, or anything fancy, but teams are doing the same concept.
I’m no expert, and have no particular interest in them, but I always thought that the true saber stuff were things like WAR. basically, analysis of counting stats to try and determine what they mean, in terms of positive outcomes (runs, wins). IOW, taking the sea of numbers, and trying to empirically determine which ones are more valuable to the bottom line.
so if you can count it, it ain’t saber. And for sure, every team spends plenty of time looking at things you can count. And deciding what they want to make out of it. every team, including the Phils and Angels, have to take the full body of work and decide how to build their team, and which players to go after.
so in a sense, they are doing their own version of sabermetrics (looking at a bunch of data, and figuring out which elements are going to lead to more wins, so are more important).
that was all the society was trying to do (apply a more rigorous analysis to the data).
and the personal factors (grit, hustle, knowing how to win, etc.) all amount to a “fudge factor” that you apply to the formula (the subjective component added into an objective measure).
bottom line, I just think it was a bunch of stat heads trying to figure out how to answer the old bar debate “my guy is better than your guy”. Especially when they didn’t play in the same era.
hell, look at guys that played around the same time. George Foster and rickey Henderson both played LF. And were extremely productive. So who was better? Totally up to your criteria. But, which player led to more net runs? or wins? That is what Saber was trying to answer.
“they are doing their own version of sabermetrics (looking at a bunch of data, and figuring out which elements are going to lead to more wins, so are more important).”
Exactly, they have got more stat charts, spray sheets, velocity charts, speed charts, location charts, batter vs pitcher charts, loogy stats, roogy stats, etc than we would EVER care to look at. Then those guys take all of that and compile it either mentally or on paper and then come back and try to apply that information to how to pitch to a guy, what to look for from the pitcher, who to draft, who to sign, who to cut…
don’t forget to apply the grustle adjustment factor (+10% for Purphy, -75% for Pelf)
HOF GM Pat Gillick said that the game is 80% heart. So, make fun of that stuff all you want, but one of the best GM’s of all time believes in it, and thinks it’s a very important part of the game.
so that is his formula. Another might GM say it is 60%.
IOW< they are all making their own formula (which is nothing more than a way to interpret data) to determine what is going to lead to more wins.
“Exactly, they have got more stat charts, spray sheets, velocity charts, speed charts, location charts, batter vs pitcher charts, loogy stats, roogy stats, etc than we would EVER care to look at.”
That’s not what I’m talking about.
Well Stick isn’t the problem with that a problem of sample?
If you remove the counts your pretty much removing the sample data needed to know if a guy has a high war with only 1 ab and 500 ab!
As I have always said, Most sabers OBSCURE important data!
OBP not exactly a saber but it is a method of obscuring hitting with walking!
War is another story entirely! it even obscures and bias data in favor of the single,walk and RBOE, HRs are not even twice as good as a single or RBOE!
But the bottomline truth is the SABERS the teams are using are NOT the sabers you see thrown around here!
If they look at something like War it sure isn’t the version Tango Tiger uses!
They CREATE their own metrics to tell them the story they feel fits their approach and philosophy!
I would bet there are a minimum of 100-1000 proprietary metrics teams have come up with that none of the folks who profess a love of sabers have ever heard of!
Teams aren’t going to baseball reference and using the stats they decided to post on their website!
They are taking all the data that has been collected by the MLB and mashing them together in their own way! And some have more successful ways than others!
The SABR society is not seeing these advanced stats either!
So the truth of the matter is teams are using deep statistical analysis as they have ALWAYS done!
Only difference is now they have more data to work with, and not ignoring any of the data the sabers HOBBYISTS seems to think is no longer relevent.
I agree with that. A gm would very rarely use war but I do believe in today’s game they place a high influence on OBP and I think that is all if not then 90% of them.
It i an influence sure!
a simple comparison of BA to OBP tells you what the guy does when he does NOT get a hit!
If they are close together then the guy puts the ball in play!
If they are far apart then he walks a lot when he isn’t getting a hit!
Almost NEVER will OBP be below BA and if it is it means the guy must be driving in lots of runs via Sacrifice!
So sure they look at it but I don’t believe they look for that more than they look for the other traditionals like BA and RBU and EBH.
It depends on what they are looking for!
Power guys they ignore OBP altogether…
It becomes more important for guys who are NOT power hitters because the more they get on base the more the power and RBI guys you Do have might drive them in!
Leadoff and #2 hitter probably get a longer look at OBP. But not at the expense of BA entirely!
Even if a guy has a sky high OBP if his BA is below .260 he is not going to be put at the start of your lineup!
Maybe Billy beane would but not the other 29!
the problem here is TRS the guys around here who support the sabers as gods gift to baseball do NOT use both!
Ask all those guys at Alderson avenue and the saber rattlers here, how many scouting trips they have been on?
It’s all about OPS and WAR which are all pretty much numbers mashed together with no real underlying argument for mashing them that way and then used like they are the holy grail of evaluation!
And even though they use Sabers in some way no matter what the sabers tell them they still look at that BA, RBI and EBH traditionals before they even consider acting on what those sabers tell them!
Lol OBP is not a saber stat. Even the gm consider it a traditional stat. It has been around 70 years or more. Average based stats by nature are not saber stats. Including whip k/9 slg ops… they are no more saber than ERA.
no but OBP was never used IN FAVOR above BA as a traditional…
It’s not the stat of OBP that is the problem in most saber arguments it is the saber use of it as a replacement for BA in regards to hitting that is at contention!
OBP is NOT about hitting! Hits are in it, so are walks and so are HBP!
It obscures Hitting because of those extra things as there could be lots of walks, fewer hits and you have no idea which of those OBs were truly earned hits or merely a screw up by a pitcher!
OBP tells you how often a guy gets on base, BA tells you how often the guy hits himself on and provided you use both for their intended purposes you will do just fine!
But Most saber guys think BA is bad and OBP should be the standard bearer merely because it is the key component of most of the Sabers as Bill James valued it above everything else!
High OBP is valuable BJ wasn’t wrong, but how you got those OBs is just slightly more important when your selecting players because Hits are a repeatable act by a batter…
Walking and getting hit by a pitch require the pitcher and if he doesn’t help then you can’t repeat the numbers!
“That said, we will continue to stress the importance of our subjective evaluations. Succinctly stated, we believe that a combination of quality objective and subjective analysis will allow us to maximize our probability of success and to make the best possible decisions.”
“Do you have a sense for how much the Phillies’ front office relies on sabermetrics and cutting edge statistical analysis in evaluating players? A lot? A little?
Andy Martino: None. Ruben Amaro and his men are savvy in many ways, but they are not interesting in statistical analysis, sabermetrics, etc. The Phils are a very traditionally-minded organization.”
http://archive.phillyarena.com/archives/2009-11-21/Phillies-not-interested-in-Sabermetrics
Again the point goes back to what are “saber” stats to start with? They are NOT OBP, SLG, OPS, WHIP, K/9…
You really think they don’t look at THOSE stats at all? That they don’t even look at stats period?
Maybe they should be a little more intereted. They’ve been going backwards after they built a strong foundation. It’s wiser to use all methods/tools.
That’s kind of my point, if there is a tool or an advantage at all out there why would you deny yourself the access to it? Even if you don’t believe in it and others do it’s still a tool to look at. Doesn’t bind you to take those into account. Like I said for players that I see I use stats more to back up what I see and make sure what I am seeing is actually what I am seeing. I am sure even their scouts do the same.
I also think that some “old-school” baseball guys consider the newer stats to be like baseball porn. You don’t want to admit that you look at it because it wouldn’t be cool to say but…
Lol, probably.
Charlie Manuel reiterated that in an interview for SNY last year at the baseball meeting (two meetings ago now!)
They basically look for the guys with the right makeup and proper attitude, if you have that the coaching will be used and put to good use!
that always comes after looking at stats. Call it a tie breaker of a sort.
otherwise you end up with a team of joe Mcewings with dirty uniforms. And not many wins.
Hi Bayonne,
Thanks so much for posting that great article Vinny B. once found. It’s not the one I came across for that one quoted current baseball executives and weighed in on both arguments.
Still looking for it!
Joe
Again, my thoughts are that sabremetrics and the results found by computer analysis don’t show anything revealing for the professional as they do the fans.
Few fans understand how much misleading or over-emphasized percentages can be. Take for example the batting average. Know what the difference is between a .260 hitter and .300 hitter with 500 at bats? 20 hits over the course of the season. That translates into one extra hit every seven games assuming each plays 140 games. And since there is only a small difference between a .260 and .300 hitter, the same small difference applies to the great hitters as well over the course of a 20 year career for the difference between those lifetime batting averages is a grand total of 200 more hits. Doesn’t this breakdown show the actual difference between these two hitters (non-power wise) is less than what a 40 point difference in batting average makes it appear?
Same with on base percentage. A .300 hitter with 80 walks only gets on base once more over the course of four games than another .300 hitter with just 40. Over the course of the year that might make for an impressive stat but on the field day in and day out the one with double the walks doesn’t get on base that much more often. It’s one’s ability to get on base other than a hit when the situation warrants it – or to not get on base via a walk when a fly or slow grounder ASSURES getting a run on third rather than leaving it up to the next batter.
When I was a kid the debate was who was the better center fielder, Mays or Mantle. Now, if one wants to compare the prime years of each to the other, Mantle crushes Mays in average, power, runs scored and ribbies. No argument. But at the same time, there is another side to the issue. Let us say both are at bat with a runner on third with one out. Who has the better chance of driving in the run? Willie, not The Mick, despite of Mantle having the dominant batting and on-base percentages. Why? Because Mantle struck out way too often. Besides a base hit, Mays could get the run in via a ground ball out or sacrifice fly.
Again, the computer IMHO enlightens the fan more than the baseball person but is hardly a tool that one without baseball insight can use to gather personnel simply because a player’s ability goes way beyond the stats accumulated and has to be appreciated So throw stats out the window except for the personal accolades one likes to achieve as a leader. The math makes the differences appear greater than they are. The advanced stats take percentages to the maximum and again shows an analytic difference that is not essential when it comes to the game itself.
One thing – nobody please come back and say neither Mantle or Mays would have a good chance to drive in that run cause they would just be pitched around or intentionally walked!
***** Meant to say the difference over a course of twenty years between a .260 and .300 hitter is 400 hits, not 200. It still averages out to just one more every seven games.
And yet that is the difference in great and mediocre. The great figure out a way to not get out at a higher rate. It’s about sample size. If a career. 300 hitter hits. 260 one year it may be bad luck. If a. 260 hitter hits. 260 he is just what he is. Stats are a great tool for predicting future results…of course you want to see more than just those stats though.
Hi tr,
But the difference between great and mediocre is more in the statistic than the actual performance day in and day out over the course of a year. Again, only one more hit every seven games – or about four a month. Yes, we want all the hits we can get out of a player but the amount is really quite little between the .260 and .300 hitter. And when thinking about it, does a hitter who bats .300 one year and “slumps” to .260 the next really in such a slump?
And the stats don’t project anything more of what a player could be counted than what the manager and teammates already expect of him. They know what type of hitter he is and don’t think of it in terms of numbers. They look at it in terms of his focus, concentration and mechanics remaining the same. A bit less wrist action and bat speed means he is not going to hit as well as expected until he resolves the problem for as Yogi said “90 percent of all baseball is mental” (and the other half physical LOL).
And speaking of Yogi, I think the attached proves who understands and knows the game better – the hall of fame catcher or the fans of sabremetrics?
In this article, Yogi said he had a lousy 1957 season while those behind the computer are telling him he had a good one. Who’s opinion would you trust – Yogi, who had one of the best baseball brains behind those tools of ignorance, or those who contradict him based on data entry? Again, half of the game is 90 percent mental, not computer software. And comparing his 1957 season against those of other backstops doesn’t change the fact that for Yogi, it was a bad year. After all, what difference was it to Yogi what others did unless they were in competition for his job?
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1115413-yogi-berras-bad-1957-yankees-season-became-a-good-one-in-the-21st-century
OK – I JUST WENT TO MY WINDOW AND YELLED OUT I AM TOTALLY FED UP WITH SABREMETRICS AND NOT GOING TO STAND FOR IT ANYMORE!
THE SABRE-LOVING BASTARDS AT MLB NETWORK HAD THE METS 30 CLUBS IN 30 DAYS SEGMENT START A HALF HOUR LATE SO THEY COULD TALK ABOUT OF ALL THINGS — FANTASY BASEBALL!
TOTALLY MESSED UP MY DVR RECODING! DON’T KNOW WHAT AL LEITER AND LARRY BOWA CONCLUSIONS WERE ABOUT OUR TEAM.
THIS WAS OBVIOUSLY DONE BY BUD SELLIG AT THE REQUEST OF SANDY ALDERSON TO BRAINWASH PEOPLE INTO BELIEVING IN SABREMETRICS PRIOR TO AIRING THE METS SEGMENT SO THEY CAN LOOK AT A LOUSY UPCOMING SEASON AND THINK IT’S A GOOD ONE LIKE WITH YOGI BERRA IN 1957.
IT’S ON AT 5:00 AM THIS MORNING AND THEY BETTER NOT MESS AROUND WITH ME AGAIN – OTHERWISE I’M GOING TO ASK METSI TO TAKE CARE OF THEM FOR ME!
