I wanted to post something a little different today. Here are the latest Over/Under win totals for the upcoming season straight from Las Vegas. Lets take a gander, shall we…
Let me rundown my NL East picks…
Atlanta 85.5 Wins: Take The Under
The Braves didn’t make any significant changes this offseason and that’s surprising coming off of last season’s crushing collapse. I love some of their young talents like Freeman, Heyward, Hanson and Jurrjens, but I don’t see them rebounding from last season that easily, especially given the same exact cast of characters. Chipper fades away, Fredi Gonzalez is on the hot seat, Braves finish below .500 with 80 wins.
Miami 82.5 Wins: Take The Over
They have two speedsters at the top of the lineup in Reyes and Bonifacio, and a 3-4-5-6 of Ramirez, Stanton, Morrison and Sanchez. That’s incredibly sick. Throw in a 1-2 punch of Josh Johnson and Mark Buehrle, and a bullpen headed by closer Heath Bell, and you have the makings of a 85+ win team even with the volatile Zambrano.
New York 74.5 Wins: Take The Over
The Mets are better than you think. I’ll put their middle of the order hitters up against any team. They’re weak at leadoff, but that could change. A healthy Santana is the real game-changer for the Mets and he’s the key to a .500 season or better. The bullpen is better and Terry Collins has them all believing in themselves despite Wilpon’s faux pas with the Underdog tees. They’ll win 77 games if things go bad, 85 if things go right.
Philadelphia 95.5 Wins: Take The Under
I see some chinks in their armor and now Howard will be out for longer than first expected. Sure they have three aces in Lee, Halladay and Hamels, but I don’t see them coasting in a vastly improved NL East this season. They’re gonna get plenty of competition, and too many of their stars are on the wrong side of 30. Will they win 90, probably, but not 96+.
Washington 81.0 Wins: Take The Over
The Nationals were on a mission this offseason and added some nice pieces in Gio Gonzalez, Edwin Jackson and Brad Lidge. Michael Morse looks like an impact hitter and Bryce Harper isn’t far behind. A solid rotation that includes Stephen Strasburg, and a deep bullpen with rising star Drew Storen in closer role, is going to make Washington a deep sleeper in the NL. Here come the Nats, I see 85 wins in their future.
I envision both Wild Cards coming out of the NL East in 2012. The other divisions simply don’t stack up.
Agree? Disagree? Don’t be bashful, leave me a comment.