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2012
2012 Over/Under With NL East Capsules
An article by Craig Lerner
I wanted to post something a little different today. Here are the latest Over/Under win totals for the upcoming season straight from Las Vegas. Lets take a gander, shall we…
Let me rundown my NL East picks…
Atlanta 85.5 Wins: Take The Under
The Braves didn’t make any significant changes this offseason and that’s surprising coming off of last season’s crushing collapse. I love some of their young talents like Freeman, Heyward, Hanson and Jurrjens, but I don’t see them rebounding from last season that easily, especially given the same exact cast of characters. Chipper fades away, Fredi Gonzalez is on the hot seat, Braves finish below .500 with 80 wins.
Miami 82.5 Wins: Take The Over
They have two speedsters at the top of the lineup in Reyes and Bonifacio, and a 3-4-5-6 of Ramirez, Stanton, Morrison and Sanchez. That’s incredibly sick. Throw in a 1-2 punch of Josh Johnson and Mark Buehrle, and a bullpen headed by closer Heath Bell, and you have the makings of a 85+ win team even with the volatile Zambrano.
New York 74.5 Wins: Take The Over
The Mets are better than you think. I’ll put their middle of the order hitters up against any team. They’re weak at leadoff, but that could change. A healthy Santana is the real game-changer for the Mets and he’s the key to a .500 season or better. The bullpen is better and Terry Collins has them all believing in themselves despite Wilpon’s faux pas with the Underdog tees. They’ll win 77 games if things go bad, 85 if things go right.
Philadelphia 95.5 Wins: Take The Under
I see some chinks in their armor and now Howard will be out for longer than first expected. Sure they have three aces in Lee, Halladay and Hamels, but I don’t see them coasting in a vastly improved NL East this season. They’re gonna get plenty of competition, and too many of their stars are on the wrong side of 30. Will they win 90, probably, but not 96+.
Washington 81.0 Wins: Take The Over
The Nationals were on a mission this offseason and added some nice pieces in Gio Gonzalez, Edwin Jackson and Brad Lidge. Michael Morse looks like an impact hitter and Bryce Harper isn’t far behind. A solid rotation that includes Stephen Strasburg, and a deep bullpen with rising star Drew Storen in closer role, is going to make Washington a deep sleeper in the NL. Here come the Nats, I see 85 wins in their future.
I envision both Wild Cards coming out of the NL East in 2012. The other divisions simply don’t stack up.
Agree? Disagree? Don’t be bashful, leave me a comment.
About the Author: Craig Lerner
I'm a data analyst and researcher for a leading news agency who loves life and is hooked on the Mets. I love following the Amateur Draft and have a particular fondness for the Mets Minor Leagues who I follow each day. Give me a cold beer, a summer day, and a Mets game, and I'm good to go.
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I can buy into your breakdown…I see the Mets as the most difficult team to predict. I know that they won’t be a 90 win team, but there are a lot of things that could happen that could make them a solid 85 win team or a 60 win team. A slow start with their difficult schedule could have lasting effects throughout the entire season.
I find it interesting that the NL only has one team with +90 wins and only 4 teams under 80 wins. (The AL has that many in one division!) I can see a couple of those sub 80 win teams surprising and reaching the plus 80 mark. I guess it shows how evenly balanced the league is.
I also think it’s a little odd that the LA Southern California Angles of Anaheim is marked for under 90 wins. With their improved Lineup, very good rotation and good manager, I could see them running away with the division.
I’ll take the over on Atlanta. Last September, their young team simply ran out of gas. Same with Niese and Gee. If we expect them to rebound because they’re stronger and more mature, it’s no different than the young Braves team. It’ll come down to Atlanta and Philly again at around 90-92 wins. Marlins will win 86-88 games, Nats 81-83, Mets 78-80. I think the East and Central send a WC team apiece.
I also think it’s quite embarrasing that Vegas didn’t even include the AAA team from Houston in their estimates. Remember, Mets fans, no matter how bad you think your team is, EVERYONE thinks the Astros are worse.
A lot of innings on Kimbrell, Venters and O’Flaherty last year and they started to break down at the end. I could see them all having lesser years in 2012.
Heyward should be back, Uggla won’t start out as he did in 2011, Bourne will be better than McClouth and Schafer and Prado and McCann will probably be healthy all season. Chipper is a wild card but the starting pitching depth of Hanson, Hudson, Jurjens, Minor, Beacher, Teheran, Delgado and Vizcaino over a full season is pretty damn formidable and should help prevent some of that bullpen burnout they experienced last year.
I see the Braves winning 92+ and going to the post season and if Philly suffers just one big injury winning the Division.
Atlanta: Over, pitching, pitching, pitching. 87 wins
Miami: Under, that’s a long way to go in one off-season and until I see Johnson healthy they don’t get the over. 81 wins
Mets: Even, that’s cheating they can’t get half a win… so uh over. 75 wins
Phillies: Under, social security 90 wins
Washington: under, over, under, over, under OVER. 80 wins
I predict
Phillies, Cards, Giants, Dbacks, Reds (Cards and Reds finish with 88 wins and have a one game playoff where Cards win and Reds go to wild card game to play Dbacks who had 87 wins and beat the Braves in a one game playoff. Thus the worst possible scenario for this batty one game playoff.)
You’re right about Johnson. The Marlins and the Mets are similar. They go nowhere unless their oft-injured ace isn’t injured, no matter how many runs they score.
Interesting to see the level of parity (mediocrity?) they predict for the NL.
and it shows why the Mets have a punchers chance of sneaking into the playoff 9with 2 WCs).
if they are spot on (and no, of course they won’t be), it means that it will only take 86 wins to make the playoffs. And even USM up above there says they could be 85. Hell, even going from last year to 86 is only about 1.5 wins/month.
So while we all know there are “ifs” with the team (though just about every team in the NL has plenty of their own), with a reasonable amount of health, and the potential output from the offense, if they can hold together on SP then hell yeah, they can be right there in the mix with the rest of the NL teams fighting it out for the 2 WC spots.
I am curious what this will do to the trading market. No more compensation for players traded during the season and about every most likely to be within a strikers distance in July will equal a boring as hell trade deadline IMO.
Not necessarily. There could be a logjam in the NL for that 2nd WC spot, but the AL is pretty much a guarantee. The Rangers, Angels, Red Sox and Rays will fight for three playoff spots, so that leaves a lot of AL teams in selling mode by June and a lot of NL teams willing to buy.
I don’t know. There is definitely a chance of everyone standing pat, but all it takes is one team to overpay for a relief pitcher or something to open the flood gates.
I wonder what would happen if the Marlins or Red Sox find themselves like 4 games out of a Wild Card in the middle of July.
Or if the Mariners finally decide to dangle Felix. You might see an entire AA roster moved for that.
My biggest concern with taking the Mets on the “over” is…the beginning of the schedule is very difficult. We don’t know when Santana will pitch, young players could take some time to get up to speed…they could be10 games under .500 by the end of May. If that’s the case, we know Sandy will punt and a demoralized with the better players traded away, we could have a very long summer.
Wright could be traded either way. It’ll all depend on the return value, not necessarily how many games back the Mets are.
maybe fewer salary dumps, but more actual need for need deals?
I think you could still see some salary dumps but more teams will be faced with decisions like the Mets last year. Do you trade Beltran, knowing you will lose him and get no compensation when you are 7 or 8 games back of the 2nd wild card? 7 or 8 games back of the 2nd wild card could be 10 games below .500.
Atlanta, Take the UNDER…
Miami, WORLD SERIES CHAMPION!!
Phillies, Take the under
Washington, Even.
Ny Mets, Take the UNDER.
http://www.fishblog.com
Hey, just want to make sure the marlin, phils and braves fans are all in the right places!
So are you predicting over or under for the Marlins? Just because they are the WS winners…
Also, as I said above you can’t pick even. LOL. Unless you plan on a tie.
Philly – under – The division is too tough for Philly to win 95+ this season…they will win the division, but, with 92 wins. Their offense is getting older and weaker, but they still have a great pitching staff.
Washington – over – I like what this team is doing a lot, I think beginning in 2013 this team is going to be the best team in the division. However, for 2012, 86 wins.
Miami – over – Josh Johnson will be back, Bell is closing games now, Giancarlo Stanton is the best young, pure power hitter in baseball…this team is going to be right up there with the Nats for years to come. 2012 – 85 wins
Atlanta – under – Team lacked offense last year and didn’t do anything to improve it for this year. Pitching is still strong for them. 2012 – 82 wins.
Mets – under – Their lineup has potential from the 2 – 6 spots. But, they are weak up the middle, and as the old baseball saying goes, you have to be strong up the middle to wins games. They have no catcher, they’re unproven at SS, Murphy is below average at 2nd base, and Torres, well, I don’t know much about him other than the fact that he can’t hit a lick. The Mets starting rotation is a mystery…Dickey seems to be the only sure thing there…and you’re kidding yourself if you think Rauch/Francisco are going to be an improvement over Izzy/KRod. Considering how good the division is now, I can’t see the Mets winning more than 70 games this year.
Atlanta – I’m taking the over on this. My early prediction is they actually win the NL east division, not the Phillies.
Miami – tough one. As others have said, it all depends on their starting pitching. I’m leaving this as a push.
Phillies – under. I can see this being the year it all starts to unravel for them.
Nats – over. They’ve got the pitching
Mets – my heart wants to say over. My brain is telling me under. So I’ll go with a push on this.
Atlanta: Under
Miami: Over
Mets: Over
Philly: Over
Washington: Under
Atlanta’s rotation isn’t as strong as most people think. Hanson missed the end of last year with an shoulder injury. Jurrjens hasn’t been able to pitch a full season the last two years because of injuries. Hudson is 36, and is going to miss the start of the season with an injury. Beachy looked really good last year, but he hasn’t proven himslef yet, and went on the DL too last year. After that, they have rookies, who have a lot of talent, but, how are they going pitch in their 1st year up here? IMO, Atlanta has a lot of question marks in their rotation. The guys they have are either injury risks or unproven.
Miami has a really good lineup – A lot of power and speed. And their rotation isn’t bad, plus they have a very good closer too.
Philly has an outstanding rotation, and their offense is better than most people think, even without Howard(remember last year they played without Utley too).
Washington is still a year a away, IMO.
And I see the Mets finishing around .500. The lineup will be good, but the pitching and defense isn’t strong enough to get us over .500.
what about the astros?
Good catch. Astros can’t seem to get any respect lately. LOL.
Still can’t believe they talked them into moving to the AL next year. Although the new owner got a nice chunk of change for that.
Went over to the Astros blogs when that was announced to see how their fans felt about it. Couldn’t find one who actually liked the idea.
I guess they’ve got one season to be looking for a good DH instead of the normal NL extra BP arm or utility guy.