CBS Sports’ Eye on Baseball posted a Mets Spring Primer which included their fantasy sleeper and bust, as well as the Mets outlook this season from opposite sides of the spectrum. Also check out their complete Mets Fantasy Preview.
Fantasy sleeper: Lucas Duda
“From July 15 (about the time he took over for a departed Carlos Beltran) to the end of the season, Duda hit .322 with 10 homers and a .957 OPS — numbers that jive with his minor-league track record. And that was at old Citi Field, complete with its big gaps, tall fences and ability to crush David Wright’s spirit.” — Scott White
Fantasy bust: David Wright
“Over the last three seasons, he has a .284 batting average and .828 OPS, which are solid numbers but less than elite even for a third baseman. True, his struggles began the same year the Mets moved to spacious Citi Field, but that doesn’t explain why his numbers have lagged on the road during that time. Thus, you can’t assume the team’s decision to move in the fences this year will be Wright’s miracle cure. It’ll help, but it won’t eliminate the injuries, the perpetually rising strikeout rate and the curious home-road splits.” — Scott White
Santana returns to Cy Young form and Niese takes a step forward, as the Mets pitching staff rounds into form. The new dimensions of Citi Field make a huge difference for the team’s offense, with Wright and Bay returning to form, while Duda becomes a star. Even in this perfect world, the Mets could have trouble leapfrogging the Phillies, Marlins and Braves. But Bud Selig could always add another eight playoff spots, giving them a spot in the postseason.
Santana’s injuries continue to haunt him and nobody steps up to take over at the top of the rotation. Davis isn’t the same player that he was before his injury and Duda suffers from a sophomore slump, as the offense struggles overall. And then there’s the chance that the problems on the field pale in comparison to the ownership problems. The worst-case scenario (well, for 2012, it’s may be the best-case scenario for the long term) has a repeat of the Dodger fiasco.
I don’t think Lucas Duda is someone that you can sneak through in the 12th or 13th round of your 12-team draft. That ship has sailed a long time ago. If I had to pick a sleeper, I’d take a flyer on Jason Bay who many will avoid and will probably be there late in your draft.
I completely disagree with Wright as a bust. White’s concern about his rising strikeout rate could have very well been a result of that wall. Even Wright admitted he altered his swing because of it. A lot of things have gone wrong for Wright in the last three seasons, but this is the year all that changes and luck starts smiling down on him again.