20
2012
Will Mets Regret Not Adding A Starter?
An article by 
With Mets pitchers and catchers set to report later this morning, lets take a look at a couple of things Sandy Alderson said over the weekend when he spoke to reporters in St. Lucie.
I was a little taken back by what he said when he was asked where he’d like to see the team do better?
“Well, just in a general sense, we need to pitch better than we did last year. The starting rotation was healthy and pitched on a regular basis. Hopefully we can maintain that with some better quality performances than we had overall last year”
That’s an odd thing to say considering he made no improvements to the rotation this offseason. In fact, the best pitched game of the season last year, came from Chris Capuano who will not be back this season.
There’s an old saying that seems very appropriate here. If you continue to do the same things, you’ll get the same results.
Johan Santana, R.A. Dickey, Jon Niese, Mike Pelfrey and Dillon Gee make up the projected rotation heading into the season. But whether Santana will be ready to start the season is far from certain. The backup plan? Take your pick between Miguel Batista, Chris Schwinden and Jeremy Hefner (who?).
Compounding matters is a down-sized Citi Field… That will certainly impact the rotation’s performance, a rotation that already ranked at the bottom last season.
All five projected starters have significant concerns:
- Santana – No explanation needed…
- Pelfrey – Those sinkers were flying out of the park at a record pace last year.
- Gee – He had an ERA north of 6.00 in Aug/Sep with a 1.712 WHIP
- Niese – First Half: 3.88 ERA / 1.356 WHIP – Second Half: 5.67 ERA / 1.543 WHIP
- Dickey – Okay, only four have significant problems, I forgot Dickey was a Jedi.
Alderson is banking on improved performances because he believes “they all have something to prove.” That’s funny… I was of the belief that intangibles like that didn’t hold much weight with the new breed of GMs, but hey maybe he is evolving or just coming around. 
But seriously, don’t all teams that finish at the bottom of their divisions have something to prove? It’s not a strategy.
I would have bet anything when the regular season ended that Pelfrey wouldn’t have been back and in his place a bona fide No. 2 starter. Gio would have been nice… Cahill too…
On the bright side, don’t worry about the possibility of prospects such as Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler and Jeurys Familia being rushed to the major leagues.
“The temptation with those guys doesn’t really exist at the moment,” Alderson said. “I’d be very surprised if we broke from that sort of timetable.”
So to answer my own question, yes, I believe the decision not to add a starter may be a regrettable one when you consider:
The unlikelihood that the starting five can be relied upon for 150 starts.
The safety net includes weak and unreliable options.
Best minor league options are not major league ready.
Hey, nobody’s perfect, but the front office definitely dropped the ball here… big time.
Updated Post
About the Author: Joe DeCaro
Went to my first Mets game, a Mayors Trophy game at Shea, in '73. We beat the Yankees 8-4 and I was hooked. I marched in two Banner Day parades, and before the Grand Slam single, there was the "Hendu Can Do" grand slam - I was there. I've collected Mets memorabilia all my life and started Mets Merized Online to feed my addiction.
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NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nationals | 26 | 17 | .605 | - |
| Braves | 26 | 18 | .591 | 0.5 |
| Marlins | 24 | 19 | .558 | 2.0 |
| Mets | 23 | 20 | .535 | 3.0 |
| Phillies | 21 | 23 | .477 | 5.5 |
Last updated: 05/23/2012
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When you look at the 5 spots if Santana is healthy he definitely has to have a spot. Which leaves 4 spots. Out of the 4 spots Dickey I would think definitely has to have a spot which leaves 3. Out of the 3 spots if one is to believe that Niese deserves a shot to develop he would have to get a spot which leaves 2. Out of the 2 remaining spots you can make a case that Gee could be either a bullpen guy or a 5th starter if needed due to injury and Pefrey you could conceivably move with his $5.6M somewhere else. Which I guess gives the team 2 spots in the rotation (3 if Santana can’t pitch) to try to upgrade.
Maybe they could of signed Joe Saunders, Erik Bedard or Jason Marquis? One of the lefties would of been nice. The depth is a concern most around the blogosphere and media are on page with this even the GM. Depth overall this season is an area of concern at multiple positions with Catcher and Centerfield among the others. It will be one of the things to watch as the Mets get deeper into camp.
Right now the SP is in worse shape then last year, IMO.
Capuano is gone and his apparent replacement in the rotation is Johan.
Seriously, who in their realistic mind is counting on Johan? I know I’m not.
There is no way the SP as currently constructed is going to be better than last year. And that’s not saying much. The SP is the weakest link.
SRT, I’m not with you on that. Niese and Gee are geared for improvement if for no other reason than more experience and maturity. Pelfrey should improve a little because he can’t be as bad as he was last season. If you call Dickey a wash and figure he’s dependable, all you need is for Santana and/or his injury replacement to be better than Cap. That’s not that hard to imagine.
Well, I certainly like your analysis better than mine so I certainly won’t mind being wrong.
They’ve been saying this every year with Pelf, so that point is moot. I do hope to see improvement from Niese and Gee, but would figure only to see something more out of Niese. And Santana I’m considering busted goods until I see something (anything) from him. So, until that happens, you’re running with Dickey, Niese, Pelf, Gee and Bautista… That, my friends, is less than optimal. That is one gripe with Alderson, the SP was not addressed. And even for those who say “oh, who would want to come to the Mets to be the 6th pitcher???”, you drop Gee down to AAA. Or you package Gee with other minor leaguers to try and upgrade (something along the lines or similar of a Cahill or Gonzalez type trade). While he may have tried this, it didn’t end up successful. The SP is going to be an issue for the whole season, that’s my pessimistic view on that.
not sure if it is exactly what he meant, but I expect the rotation to be better (that those guys will have better years). Coming off a down year, another step on the development path, stuff like that. In a nutshell, they all should eb expected to improve.
No one mentions Mejia. Y not? i know he’s coming off TJ-rehab, but we should get him back by May, maybe…or June?
Otherwise. i share all the concern about the rotation and then some. Dickey will be good, and i think Niese will rebound from a disappointing 2nd half. Pelfrey, Johan, and Gee are the huge Q-marks.
Mejia won’t be back until mid season, so you really can’t look at 2012 as anything more than finishing his rehab, and hope that he is back to normal for ST 2013.
Yeah, you know we really can’t count on Mejia at all this year, what if he has a setback? Those things happen, especially to the Mets. Ideally you want to go into spring training with 7 solid candidates for the rotation. Injuries will happen, guys will under-perform. How many times have the Mets ever gotten through a season only using the original five starters? Never. It never happens, so you need to have that depth. The Mets have four maybe five starters going into ST. Even with Johan pitching, it will take a miracle for the lack of major league ready pitching in the system, not to bite them in the ass this year.
It’s not like Mejia is really someone we could count on now anyways. Kid has only started a max of 19 games in one season, and that was back in 2009. Even if he was ready to pitch today with no rehab, he has a lot of work to do before he’s ready to pitch a full season in NY…that’s assuming that he’s even going to be a starter…I think there is a very good chance that he ends up being a relief pitcher or maybe even a closer.
Let’s try to sell some hope (mostly to myself…)
1. We face the NL East teams more than any other and NL East offense aren’t really that scary.
2. Santana in 15-20 starts (i’m shooting low), plus 15 from our “depth” (Batista, Schwinden, Hefner, etc.) is an upgrade over Capuano
3. Niese and Gee are young enough to improve. Niese can hopefully match his peripherals, and Gee can hopefully adjust better.
4. A better bullpen, not having to be the staff ace (we tried lying to Big Pelf last year – it didn’t work. we all always knew he was not an ace), and a slide down the rotation or the fact that we can trade him in July and go with Mejia and/or depth guys….makes Pelf ok.
5. Low expectations means real time excitement for even going .500
The mets definitely need a starter. Pitching needs to be upgraded if there is any chance for next year.
Sandy should try to add kazmir, just in case…. he’s cheap and wouldn’t hurt to have him imo.
he is likely only getting a minor league deal anyway to go try and show he has something left in AAA, so why not? Pretty sure they will have room in that roster to start the season.
though looking at him objectively (as in, without the prior Met history), if he was player X coming off his recent performances, not many people would be clamoring for him to be signed (if anything, it would be the opposite).
I think his fastball topped out at 85-88… I know the team needs pitching, but I’m starting to think Kazmir is toast.
The Mets will also regret hiring a GM who hasnt a clue on how to build a winning ballclub. Other GMs did MORE with LESS for players this offseason. I hope 2012 wont be Alderson’s 9th straight losing season, but according to MLB Network and ESPN it’s not looking good for Sandy. Still anything can happen, maybe Minaya’s guys Duda, Ike, Murphy and Tejada surprise everyone. Lets go Mets!
Maniac, he had a good day, so…. that’s all it matters to some people here, remember last year was omar’s fault, this year is the wilpons. next year will be the players..
I just hope the Mets become great like the dynasty he built in San Diego before he came to Mets.
ROTFLMAO!!!!!!!!!!
the COREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Some would say he has already surpassed what he did in San Diego!
They were only 6 games behind us in the WC last year!
Pretty sure if SD improved a little bit they will wind up ahead of us this year!
LOL
And they will have done it much cheaper than us!
Of course they didn’t cut an 11 Million dollar all star then give 6 of it back for a guy who can’t keep the closer job!
My question would be : Are the Mets going to regret not trading Mike Pelfrey? If Pittsburgh can trade for Burnett, some team would take Pelfrey.
Pittsburgh is paying roughly the same amount per year for Burnett that the Mets are for Pelf. He’s really not the horrible deal people make him out to be.
Pelf’s not an ace. At all. We get that. He hasn’t lived up to the hype. But $6 million and change for an average starter is…well, about average.
Speaking of Burnett. The Pirates supposedly will pay him an avg of $6.5M over the next 2 years. The Dodgers will be paying Harang $6M a year over the next 2 years and the DBacks will pay Saunders $6M for this season. Of the 3 Donal who do you think probably ends up having the best season in 2012? A return to the NL might be what Burnett needs and if it is that $6.5M will look like a bargain. What do you think?
Yes i agree, but with that the mets could have sign either of those pitchers too. Let’s face it as a whole internally the mets need a new face to run things inside, also get rid of pitching coach dan warthen. Come on really now people, the rotation they have now is forget it, the bullpen well it’s a little better than last year. These pitchers need better control, work the count right. use the corners of the plate to our advanatage, they need to learn how to change speeds of their pitches. Like i said before the mets wasted another year, nobody agrees with me that the wilpons need to sell and leave, what really now what have they shown or prove to us fans that they really care about this team as a whole, the city, the fans, common on now. Think about it and can someone show me they feel the same.
Huh??????????
We agree on the potential for Burnett returning to the NL at 6.5M in retrospect may be a steal which was the focus of the comment. As to everything else I would disagree on the 2 points of getting rid of Warthen and needing a new face to run things internally.
Not concerned with Dickey or Gee and Santana will be good to very good if healthy. What concerns me the most is the fact that Mike Pelfrey is AWFUL and Jon Niese slowed in his development last year. In the next few years, in order to win, the Mets will probably need to make a blockbuster trade for a big-time pitcher, but they may not do that after what happened with Santana (and it may not be Alderson’s philosophy)
I agree with Pelfrey. Awful and will leave when he becomes a free agent (Boras). We need to find a team willing to take him and his contract. I have seen enough of him. If he pitches well, still trade him
Pelfrey going up and in and bangin’ some hands would make a huge difference for him.
Now that I look at the numbers, my mind is completely changed about Niese… he has been improving
You want to look at some interesting numbers, Compare Niese’s performance and age with Halladay’s!
Not saying he will do what Roy did or as quickly but it does seem to be very similar!
He just has to take that very next step and not peter out in the second half of the season!
Tha Mtet should have non-tendered Pelfrey and gone after Gio Gonzalez.
With what? Did you see the package Oakland got for Gio?
Maybe not specifically Gio, but a low-priced (Salary) young arm