14
2012
Wheeler, Harvey Crack Law’s Top 100 Prospects
An article by Craig Lerner
This is starting to become old hat, but still worth mentioning. ESPN’s Keith Law (Insider Subscribers) posted his annual Top 100 Prospects and the Mets’ Zack Wheeler checked in at #27 while Matt Harvey cruised in at #38.
Zack Wheeler:
“He will touch 97 mph and sit at least 91-94 with an above-average curveball that has shown it can miss bats. He has a fringy changeup that’s a little too firm, giving up a .283/.375/.452 line to left-handed hitters as a result (although that improved after the trade in a small sample). His control is still below-average, and he’ll have to show durability to match his frame, as he retired more than 18 batters just twice all year.”
Matt Harvey:
“He will sit 91-97 mph as a starter with good downhill plane, and his changeup is a weapon for him against both left- and right-handed hitters. His curve and slider tend to run together, and he’d probably be better off just picking one or the other and using it exclusively to avoid throwing in-between pitches that will get hammered at higher levels”
Jeurys Familia missed the cut, but did get an honorable mention:
“If I thought there was any chance he could start, he would have made the list, but he’s headed for the bullpen with a plus fastball and not enough command or secondary stuff to remain in the rotation.”
What’s important to note here is that we’ve seen about a dozen of these lists now and it’s not just one or two experts hitting on Wheeler and Harvey, it’s all of them. Some might have one higher than the other, but the consensus is that they are both high ceiling top of the rotation guys oozing with loads of potential.
We haven’t developed a 20-game winner in so long I don’t even remember. Doc Gooden? Anyway, I think all that is about to change when these two finally arrive.
About the Author: Craig Lerner
I'm a data analyst and researcher for a leading news agency who loves life and is hooked on the Mets. I love following the Amateur Draft and have a particular fondness for the Mets Minor Leagues who I follow each day. Give me a cold beer, a summer day, and a Mets game, and I'm good to go.
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I just don’t see how being on a top 100 list makes you into a 20 game winner!
How many pitchers actually win 20 games a year?
Sure the one or two who do each year may have been in the top 100 list but how many of those 100 never even make the MLB?
FMart used to be a top 100 guy so that should tell you all you need to know about the hope of being on these lists!
Of course they could bomb but they are indeed something to be excited about and to pay attention to. It’s not like the author said they will be locks, he’s just placing his fan opinion…
“We haven’t developed a 20-game winner in so long I don’t even remember. Doc Gooden? Anyway, I think all that is about to change when these two finally arrive.” Hard to get on him about that optimism.
So was Reyes, Wright, Ordonez and Alfonzo.
and so was escobar, alex ochoa, pulsiper, wilson, isringhausen, etc…. but of course.. you take the easy road out to make metsie seem as if he’s wrong..
Lets everyone remember there are 30 teams so the Law of Averages says we should have at least 3 players in the top 100. Pops
Anyway, I think all that is about to change when these two finally arrive”
are you then guaranteeing harvey and wheeler will be 20 game winners??? yes!!!! who needs BA when we have Craig Lerner .. (Roll eyes)
Keith Law is yet another guy who projects and predicts what a minor leaguer will do, and as usual, probably even more than BA, he’s WRONG!!!!!!!! he’s predicted a bunch of players who were “can’t miss” prospects who turn out to be BUSTS, imo out of the 3 FAMILIA will be the kid guiding our pitching staff, unless the mets misuse his talent, the kid got a fire not a often seen in pitchers, he’s fearless and is not afraid to throw inside to get hitters away from the plate, but of course, heart, cohoones and courage are not seen on scouting reports. things like “high ceiling” and “upside” are the ones use.. you can have all the talent in the world but if you’re lazy and not dedicated all that talent and skill get wasted..
I was surprised myself on how down he sounded on Familia.
Stuckin, the guy throws HARD!!!!! i saw him manhandled 3 hitters on 11 pitchers for 3 k’s… the kid got the stuff to be a STUD, his attitude to get better along with a devasting curve he’s got makes him difficult to attack.. his secondary pitchers are not there yet, but when you throw that hard, hitters don’t adjust to your off speed stuff as much because they need to be quicker..Familia will be our #1 for years to come.. allowing wheeler and even harvey the chance to succeed because they will not feel as much pressure knowing they won’t have to be #1 in our pitching staff, benefitting the club and us the fans to possibly have 3 studs from our farm system pitching in the bigs..
So we are going to get on the author about saying that he thinks one of these two guys has a good chance to win 20 games but then you back up your’s with “Familia will be our #1 for years to come.. ”
Then you get on scouts for saying that they are usually wrong and don’t look at this that or the other yet you have seen Familia pitch a few times and are anointing him the savior of the staff? I just don’t get why it’s OK one direction and not the other. Isn’t it just as logical or even more so for fans to be excited about Wheeler and Harvey just as you are about Familia? Can’t we be excited about all three without bringing one down to boast another? The idea that right now you can claim that he will take pressure off of Harvey and Wheeler? How the hell do we even know they will need pressure taken off?
Lets just be excited about all three, take the reports with a grain of salt and hope all three are in AAA by the end of the season.
If Because if you read again, he appoints harvey and wheeler to be 20game winners, even leaving out familia yet there’s a “report” from keith law on him.. does he sound excited for familia? NO!!! he quotes “Anyway, I think all that is about to change when these two finally arrive” meaning harvey and wheeler (who hasn’t shown sh**) will be guarantee success while familia gets left out.. It’s funny how you wanna go out and defend him… btw, did most of our comment get deleted yesterday!?!?
So again because he left out your guy you purposely bring down the other two? It’s one man’s opinion just like you have your’s. However, to get on the author for being overly excited about these two pitchers and then say what you did about Familia?
As for if my comments got deleted? Haven’t checked? Should I care?
Bring down the other 2??????? explain to me how i brought down the other 2? by saying that if familia becomes the MAN they’d be less pressure on them 2? by thinking familia will be better than both? am i the only saying that? because, in june, the manager of familia AND harvey raved about familia as the dwight gooden type, and if you ask me, i rather get inside information about a player from the manager/baseball player than from keith law, a guy who HAS NEVER PICKED UP a baseball bat in his life, but makes a living by using numbers to project a player and predict how he’ll be at the majors..
Alex you have been trying to bring down Wheeler since he came in… and saying IF you never said IF Familia anything… Admit it you got pissed because your boy was not on the list, Law put him as a reliever and the author did not mention him. Thus to compensate for that you did the same thing you have always done with Reyes and Wright. Bring one down because you think he gets more attention or less blame than your boy… It’s always left or right with you there is no in between. We had Reyes and Wright, why not be happy that we had two of the best positional players the Mets ever developed playing side by side. Both with strengths and weakness yet our’s but you always forced people to take a side. Now you are doing the same thing with these 3 stud pitchers… I hope that Mejia makes it a quartet myself and I will root for any of the four that come out as dominant. I don’t care what there background, creed, draft position, or who signed them… they are Mets. Be proud and supportive of all of them, enjoy the hype of Harvey and Wheeler, revel in the fact that Familia is your sleeper.
Here’s my take on Single A pitchers… unless you DOMINATE your league like harvey and Familia did, you shouldn’t be mention amongst the top prospects IMO…
my take is this….
None of these lists should consider anyone who has not played a single game in AAA!
The other leagues are nothing more than instructiional leagues and have very different focus’ in what they look for!
In A Ball they look for BA! Given up by pitchers and attained by batters Pitcher have to demonstrate their stuff walks be damned!
In AA they look at Walks! Again given up by Pitchers and gained by batters! The mantra for a AA pitcher is to throw strikes!
in AAA you have to combine the two and you have to do it against guys who are one injury away from being Major leaguers!
So all these top prospect lists should be made only from AAA players because that is the only league where you SHOW everything you learned while the others is all about doing well in the limited aspect you are supposed to be learning!
While true, some organizations are no longer using AAA as the final step. The Mets also tried that philosophy under Omar using AAA as only a place for AAAA players and depth for the MLB team. You are right though that most intelligent teams are not following that path.
That’s a pretty narrow view and I imagine the entire baseball industry would disagree with that statement. Yes at different levels they look for different attributes but they score a player relative to their level. The players have been observed by so many scouts from schools, to development leagues, to major league franchises. Of course not all players work out to their projection, there are too many unknown factors and some players simply just don’t grow any further. Others players tread under the radar and spring forward to surprise folks. there is no guarantee to any of this, but these scouts and analysts have the ability to judge the player at their current time, provide what their strengths and weakness’s are and piece that together to demonstrate what type of player they can be.
If everything was guaranteed, then their would be no Vegas.
AAA has a ton of guys for MLB depth and career minor leaguers. A+ and AA is where you can see tools translate (or not) in performance against other guys on the way up. That gives the best chance of hitting projections. A- and rookie leagues are all about the possibility of tools translating.
The problem with that philosophy is that you can’t compare the two leagues.
FLA St league:
Avg ERA: 3.92
Runs/Game: 4.38
CLF League:
Avg ERA 4.89
Runs/Game 5.58
Those stats are backed up in a limited sample of what Wheeler did after the trade. Wheeler is what the scouts say he is right now. A guy that does not allow a lot of hits, strikes out a ton, throws hard and has to work on his command.
Also, Familia in a pitching friendly league in 2010 pitched to a healthy 5.58 ERA. Not too dominant there? Looks like, hopefully, last year he put things together and we can enjoy big things to come.
Law is not the only one that thinks Familia is headed for the bullpen.He hasn’t consistently commanded his secondary pitches yet.He’s been relying on pure power. There’s nothing wrong with that. He could be wrong on all 3. A guy like Gorski may end up even better than the big 3,there’s no guarantees either way. Instead of being excited about the potential for all 3 you shit on the other 2. It’s obvious you root for certain players more so than the team.
I’ve seen Mejia a few times in person and he always has the same very professional demeanor on the mound, a real go after ‘em but with poise. His FB can be up or down, in or out and is about 10 MPH faster than his slider, speaking of which has great run but no vertical component. It’s more of a caught lookin’ than a swing through. I cannot recall seeing him throw a change but it is these last two pitches that will really make the difference for him along with anything he adds along the way. Working on a curve right now and just showing it on occasion would be nice and a split finger would just be devastating.
His motion and frame also give him a much better chance to avoid injury.
I see Familia as an above average #2 or #3 starting pitcher for 10 years.
* Mean’t Familia
Scouts do in fact take into account things like attitude and how a prospect handles game pressure. they also note pitch selection. How do you think they figure out a guy’s ceiling if they don’t look at his general approach to things?
Also, Familia is not looked at as a starter because of his physical attributes and his delivery. Attitude will not protect his elbow if his delivery is too explosive.
Correct it is only the Sabermetricians who ignore those things!
I can see your point but don’t you think that way too many people and stats are dumped into that category? I mean seriously is there even a “Saberguru” on this board? I know I am not. I tend to shy away from the ones that I can’t even calculate on my own. However, so many of us get lumped into that category because we use stats to defend our positions. Stats are not evil, even advanced stats as long as you use them appropriately.
I’m an advocate of advance stats, but I’ve said over and over that you don’t focus on stats for amateur and minor league scouting. You can use them to track progress of minor league players, but that is about it. The varying degrees in talent and the fact that a lot of guys are there learning new things makes looking at a stat line by itself pointless.
I’m going to ignore the other guy because nothing good will ever come from it but I will answer you and hope for the best!
No one not even me says all Sabers are bad! Some are worse than others, other yet are formed based on a bias towards one aspect or another and are totally useless! Others yet are valid and make some sense in a comparative use but only if you understand exatly what the saber is meant to show and only use it for that particular trait!
The problem is the ones that are most WIDELY used are usually the worst of the bunch! OPS which is nothing more than an addition of two unrelated numbers in an attempt to create a comprehensive metric? A Guy with High OBP and low SLG is rated just as highly as a guy who hits a lots of HRs but makes a lot of outs?
Sabers are a tool and it isn’t the tool that is at fault it is those who use the tool incorrectly!
My problem with the Saber guys around here is that they seem to think that Traditionals are USELESS ANTIQUATED and if you look at them your an old out of date and uninformed fuddy!
ut the truth is those who ignore any knowledge that has been created over the 100 years of baseball history are the IGNORANT ones!
Someone recently said using traditionals is passe and WRONG! Sabers are the new TRUTH!
Well you know just because a new way to look at things has been devidsed doesn’t make the old ways wrong! Sure a lot of teams use abers now but they didn’t abandon the traditionals either!
Einstien came up with a much better way to look at Gravity and better than the way Newton described it,,,,But NASA still uses Newtons equations to send a rocket to a point in space!
Why because they STILL WORK! As does the traditionals!
If you acquire a hitter who hits .300 you will succeed just as much as anyone who doesn’t but gets on base at a .300+ clip!
And actually you will do BETTER because the guy who HITS better will drive in more runs than a guy who walks more to get on base!
The Saber folks will deny this and we have had many a debate here on OBP and it’s ability to drive RS!
And I have showed how teams with LOWER OBP have scored more runs than those with higher OBP….Why?
Because they HIT to get on base which drives in more runs than the guys who have a higher OBP but don’t hit as well!
Sabers are not the be all and end all of tools!
They are not any BETTER than traditionals just different and a bit more specific in what they look for!
Fine if your looking for specifics but if your looking for the best batter there is still no better metric than his BA!
If your looking for the best Pitcher there is no better metric than his BA allowed and BB:K ratio! That and his ERA!
You can use WHIP and WAR till the cows come home!
but it’s the guy with the lowest ERA that usually gets the most wins and Cy Young votes!
Metsie, damn….
I think you’re stereotyping. I’d say only a handful of traditionalists abhor all things sabermetrics and visa versa.
Anyone with some intelligence realizes using all tools available give the highest advantage.
As far as WHIP vs. ERA goes…..usually the lower the WHIP, the lower the ERA.
But if you pay attention to both, and a pitcher has a out of proportion higher WHIP to his ERA it’s a warning flag. Sooner or later putting that much activity on the base paths is gonna come back to bite you and that ERA is going to go up.
In the example above, looking at both will give you a better indicator on where a pitcher is at then using just one or the other.
Right they are paired to each other, rarely do you see a guy with lots of HR have a low OPS but if you do it does make you take a peak at what is going on.
The problem with what you said is USUALLY!
USUALLY means sometime the truth you think you have is sometimes NOT the truth!
USUALLY the higher the OPS the better the hitter you are! But not always sometimes the better walker gets in that list of players! Guy who can’t hit but gets on base anyway!
A metric like any scientific study (which is what statistical analysis is SUPPOSED to be!) has to be consistent and almost NEVER wrong in what it is supposedly telling you!
BA is discarded in favor of OBP merely for the fact that BA recognizes CONTRIBUTION in the form of Sacrifices that OBP takes as PURE NEGATIVE! and discards events that are as much to do with what the Pitcher did as opposed to what the batter did!
Sure the batter recognized a ball that che couldn’t recognize and walk on if the Pitcher didn’t throw it!
Yet OBP calls it purley a batter accomplishment! Yes it is a good result of an AB but it doesn’t tell you how good the batter is and is as much a product of the Pitcher as the batter! Yet a Sacrifice which is purely a plus from the batter is called a nbegative!
OBP gives a plus for something that the batter can’t do on his own and gives a negative to a positive result that leads to an RS or an OB being better than it was. Yes it makes an out but there are good outs and bad outs!
And if you don’t think the Saber guys around here do ignore BA in favor of OBP well I suggest you read some of the articles I have written on the subject!
And the Saber arguments made against them!
Who are the saber guys? Most of us on here would be laughed out of any “saber” discussion for even bringing up something so simple as OBP.
Also can you provide a good example of a bad hitter with a high OPS?
“And if you don’t think the Saber guys around here do ignore BA in favor of OBP well I suggest you read some of the articles I have written on the subject!
And the Saber arguments made against them!”
Why, do you want him to compeltely disregard BA?
Do you even understand the arguments against it?
Or do you just make more stuff up, like you constantly get caught doing?
Hey TRS…you wanted a name…Here is one guy who fits…I quote…
“Do you even understand the arguments against it?”
Yes Donal I do but none of them are actually valid!
Especially not when OBP takes into account POSITIVE PAs and calls them NEGATIVE!
The fact that BA calls the sacrifice and a Walk a WASH as contributed but unattainable without another players help does not make it INCOMPLETE as you guys argue!
OBP is WAY more incomplete because it doesn’t give credit where credit is due and gives credit when it’s NOT due!
OBP, SLG, OPS, WHIP are not “saber” stats.
You go right on believing that if you want! I’m not charged with teaching you here!
Seriously? Those stats are only basically doing what ERA and BA do. Dividing a result by total opportunities.
Go to a sabersite, grit your teeth and then count how many times they rely on the stats above.
“I’m going to ignore the other guy because ”
Because you’ve got nothing to say. I also notice you’ll make accusations about me. Huh, how about that.
“The problem is the ones that are most WIDELY used are usually the worst of the bunch! OPS which is nothing more than an addition of two unrelated numbers in an attempt to create a comprehensive metric? A Guy with High OBP and low SLG is rated just as highly as a guy who hits a lots of HRs but makes a lot of outs?”
Most advocates of sabermetrics don’t really rely on OPS for that very reason. Although, generally, you want a guy with high OPS to be in your line up. you jsut have to figure out wear he fits.
“My problem with the Saber guys around here is that they seem to think that Traditionals are USELESS ANTIQUATED and if you look at them your an old out of date and uninformed fuddy!”
No one says that. at all. Again, you are lying to protect your weak position.
“ut the truth is those who ignore any knowledge that has been created over the 100 years of baseball history are the IGNORANT ones!”
Yes, you should always look for information where ever you can find.
However, the final arbiter should be if that info or method is right. If you embrace something simply because it is “how we always did it” or “this is the new way”, then yo uare doing something dumb.
“Someone recently said using traditionals is passe and WRONG! Sabers are the new TRUTH!”
No one said that.
If you acquire a hitter who hits .300 you will succeed just as much as anyone who doesn’t but gets on base at a .300+ clip!
And actually you will do BETTER because the guy who HITS better will drive in more runs than a guy who walks more to get on base!”
.300 is a lousy OBP.
“The Saber folks will deny this and we have had many a debate here on OBP and it’s ability to drive RS!”
No, it is whther or not OBP is a better indicator of an individual players ability produce runs than RBI. You don’t even understand the argument.
“And I have showed how teams with LOWER OBP have scored more runs than those with higher OBP”
You’ve shown it has happened a couple of times over the years. It was shown to be the exception rather than the rule
“….Why?”
Because those handful of teams tend to have sluggers having a big year.
“Sabers are not the be all and end all of tools!”
No, they aren’t
“They are not any BETTER than traditionals just different and a bit more specific in what they look for!”
they are better than some “traditional” stats. RBI, W, S, ERA and BA have all been shown to be far less useful, even deceiving when compared to newer advanced stats.
“Fine if your looking for specifics but if your looking for the best batter there is still no better metric than his BA!”
Except for OBP, SLG, OPS, OPS+ wOBA etc etc
“If your looking for the best Pitcher there is no better metric than his BA allowed and BB:K ratio! That and his ERA!”
Actually, BB:K is a really good place to look. BA agaisnt and ERA can be deceptive and are also dependant on the team around him. FIP and its variants work better. HR is also a good place to look.
If there are EXCEPTIONS then the RULE you say is a rule is NOT a rule!
And I showed way more than one exception in each of the last 5 years of my research!
You would know that if you bothered to read what I said but you and X spent all your effort trying to say an RBI the same thing as an RS despite the difference in WHO gets credited with either or!
The fact that the lost of leading RS teams more closely correlated to their RBIs than their OBP just goes to show how bad your Saber RULE OF THUMB was!
And all you who think using traditionals is PASSE got the wrong answer because you INSISTED on IGNORING the traditional Metric that gives the right answer every time!
With only a difference of a run or two when it’s wrong!
“If there are EXCEPTIONS then the RULE you say is a rule is NOT a rule!”
If something happens 9 times out of 10 and there is a logical explanatio nfor it, yes it is a rule.
“And I showed way more than one exception in each of the last 5 years of my research!”
You showed like 4 teams over the last 5 years that bucked the trend. And again, at least 1 of those teams (Toronto) had a 40 HR hitter in the line up. Also, how many of those teams continued to do it?
“The fact that the lost of leading RS teams more closely correlated to their RBIs than their OBP just goes to show how bad your Saber RULE OF THUMB was!”
Because you can’t award an RBI without a run scroing. the run creates the RBI, not vice versa.
You need to learn the difference between correlation and causation.
“And all you who think using traditionals is PASSE got the wrong answer because you INSISTED on IGNORING the traditional Metric that gives the right answer every time!
With only a difference of a run or two when it’s wrong!”
A metric that is a result, not a cause. The problem with RBI is not that it is traditional (even though it only became highly valued i nthe 1980s). The problem is that it is inaccurate and misleading.
Only if if also predicts what happened that 10th time…
If not it is not a RULE just a probability!
Just like rolling a 7 has a higher probability than rolling a 6 and an 8!
doesn’t mean that you can predict which way the dice turn up!
It’s not a RULE unless it applies in EVERY CASE not just the majority!
Would the laws of Gravity be RULES if they didn’t apply everywhere and under all conditions?
So Metsie, ultimately why do you think that EVERY organization is now spending time and money on advanced stats? Are they misguided as well or just using them as one of many tools that are necessary to compete in today’s game?
I’ll play provided you supply the following…How many teams don’t EVER look at the traditional stats (Please show proof of this) because Sabers are around!
Why do they use Sabers? Because why not! What does it cost you to hire one geek to operate an Excel spreadsheet?
And tell me something where would all these Sabers amount to if we stopped recording those TRADITIONALS such as AB and Hits?
How would someones OBP be calculated if they just up and stopped keeping all those traditional stats you guys say should be avoided!
And if you want to know who just read ANYT article regarding Sabermetrics on this site!
Who said throw traditional stats away? That would be as foolish as not accepting the new ones. I don’t throw away my hammer just because I have a nail gun. Sometimes I still need a hammer.
What? How does sabermetrics fit into this? Why do you jsut say things whether or not they are true or relevant?
The boards went an hour without the use of a buzzword……..Metsie was just keeping up appearances.
Why do you beat on Bayonne for saying anything baseball and then accuse him of starting the VILE posting that uccurs here on a daily basis and you are always right in the middle of?
yes scouts take into account the makeup of players!
But whenever that is brought up about an MLB player you guys say makeup isn’t important!
How much stock do you give Murphy when your trashing him about his MAKEUP? HUH?
Murphy’s my favorite player, you twit. When did I trash his makeup? I think he’s a great worker.
Can you just stop lying?
“But whenever that is brought up about an MLB player you guys say makeup isn’t important!”
Because usually, by the time they get to the Show, their character is firmly established. There are extreme examples of contradictions to this, but i ngeneral, you don’t make it to that level without some serious work ethic.
‘There are extreme examples of contradictions to this, but i ngeneral, you don’t make it to that level without some serious work ethic.’
This I agree with 100%.
If they do make it to the big leagues w/o anything less than a serious commitment and work ethic they usually don’t last long. Take Lastings Milledge. Year we traded him there were cries of outrage at getting rid of him for what was described as ’2 bags of balls’. I commented then the Mets knew something we did not. A year after he was traded I predicted he’d be out of baseball by age 30. Not out of baseball yet but his apparent lack of dedication to what he choose as his first profession might be a major contributing factor in him playing for Japan right now.
Not to say he couldn’t have matured late and finally got it. He might be playing in Japan for awhile to try and prove he’s serious – finally – about playing in the majors.
I’m seeing more than a few now predicting Famillia won’t make it as a starter.
Jeeze…how about we give the kid a chance – and good, long one – before making this claim?
Same thing with Mejia. I hope they leave them all in the rotation until they prove that they can’t be a starter. Imagine AAA at the end of the season… Harvey, Wheeler, Familia, Mejia… can’t wait. Not only that but they usually come to Charlotte for a series!
Agreed.
I’ll be happy if Mejia does turn out to be our lights out closer for years to come – but only if he’s gotten his fair shake at being a starter.
Agreed, honestly I see him becoming the closer but like you I hope it ends up being because that is his best role and not because that is our largest need.
Guys coming back from Tommy John surgery are coming back heatlhier, more durable and better than they were before.
Mejia has that one electric pitch, the cut FB but he needs more to survive in the rotation than just that. I’d give him every single chance to work on his other offerings and error in trusting his upside for as long as possible.
He’s only 22.
Yep. You don’t move a 22 year old out of the rotation unless he’s shown a complete inability to develop a third pitch.
That cut fastball is really attractive out of the pen, though.
It sure is Darth and I’m not saying that Mejia couldn’t be one of the extremely few guys that could come out of the pen and be successful with just one pitch but the odds on it aren’t great and if you waste him now and it doesn’t work then what? Your left with a guy who you have to start developing other pitches after losing 3 years of development already.
Pretty sure Craig did not guarantee anything, only injected a little optimism which we can certainly use a lot of right now amidst the rampant negativity.
As for Law, what makes you more uniquely qualified to project Familia over Wheeler/Harvey?
You knock down everyone else’s projections, but then expect everyone to accept your own projection?
You have to be a bit more tolerant, intuitive and objective than that.
When I look at Harvey, I see Mike Pelfrey 2.0. I really hope I’m wrong!
I don’t think so. Pelfrey has talent, just not what he was sold as. also, he was rushed. He was drafted in June 2005, signed January 2006 and debuted July 2006.
Had Pelfrey been better handled, he’d be a good 2/3 guy, maybe a legit #2.
Pelf had a total of 33 career minor league starts. Harvey had 26 last year alone. He laso signed at the 2010 deadline and spent the remaining time at the PSL complex.
The 2 have been handled completely differently.
To be fair though, Pelfrey was drafted where he was because he was thought to be “big league ready”…he pitched meaningful games through his college career, was a curveball/sinker guy who didn’t really need a changeup, etc. I don’t think more minor league time wouldn’t have hurt, but I don’t feel like he was “rushed”.
I think what screwed him up more than anything was Rick Petersen telling him to scrap his curveball and throw a slider instead. In 3 years of watching him, I don’t think I’ve ever seen Pelfrey throw a slider for a called strike. He simply cannot command his breaking stuff.
You see that Humber has developed into a pretty good MLB starting pitcher. I suspect that Pelfrey would do the same with a change of scenery.
Looking at his scouting reports his curve and slider moved the same exact way and were considered below average. So recommendations before he even got to the Mets were to pick one and get better at one instead of having 2 mediocre versions.
Which didn’t happen
Salty I haven’t heard of Pelfrey having a slider in college. 2 and 4 seam, power curve, circle change. That’s what I remember.
Incidentally the Braves don’t let their pitchers throw sliders until AA opting to teach the curve, we’ve gone the other way having them ditch the curve for the slider.
This is the thing though with Pelfrey. If he was major league ready (which is something almost no college pitchers are) then why did they take away his curve ball and replace it with a slider?
In college he had a dominating curve with very late drop. That was a very effective pitch for him and what was the deal with his change? He was never going to need one?
4 seam, two seam and just learning the slider and he’s good to go?
they also have quite a bit different “stuff”.
also, isn’t harvey reported to be of the bulldog variety of pitcher?
Pelfrey has always been known as a fastball pitcher with average secondary pitches. No matter if he was rushed or not, he has not shown any growth in those other pitches.
Also googled some old scouting reports and there have been confidence issues going back to high school.
The guy has the physical ability to pitch he just doesn’t have the makeup to pitch well.
And yes…
“Anyway, I think all that is about to change when these two finally arrive” is a fairly ridiculous statement to make.
How many times has Tim Lincecum won 20 games? Or Felix Hernandez? Or etc. etc. etc.
Hopefully the changeup comes along for wheeler. If he can nail that pitch down, it will really help himmove up the ladder.
but, that is what the minor’s are for.
“We haven’t developed a 20-game winner in so long I don’t even remember. Doc Gooden? Anyway, I think all that is about to change when these two finally arrive.”
the days of the 20 game winner are just about done. you’ll see it once in a while, but the role bullpens and how people rate talent have both changed dramtically in recent years.
True, I take it more as he is saying they will be top of the rotation starters more than I look at the wins. 20 wins was an old school way of saying the pitcher would be dominant.
I think you’re right. The last Mets 20 game winners after Doc that I can recall are Cone and Viola, and neither came from within.
i guess we’ll have to wait and see then… hopefully we’l be around by 2014-2015 when all these kids will be up hopefully… see who’s right and wrong.. and Joe D, craig did project 20 game winners in both harvey AND wheeler, i am projecting based on this article by wally backman familia will be better.http://articles.nydailynews.com/2011-08-04/sports/29866061_1_matt-harvey-wally-backman-jeurys-familia/2
. also, i watch familia faced big league hitters and DOMINATE them.. last i heard from wheeler was how he got BOMBED on a potential clinching game championship for st lucie..
and law is just another saber junkie guy… based his projection on phatom numbers.. often more WRONG than right..
Nice article but I don’t see anything in there worth slotting Familia as the future ace with the others riding his coat tails.
It was Gorski in game 3 who gave up the final game. 4 earned runs in 6 IP. St. Lucie Mets only had 5 hits the whole game and lost 4-2. Wheeler didn’t pitch.
Game 2 Moviel started, taken out after 3 IP Mets lost 10-4, had only 8 hits. Wheeler didn’t pitch.
Game 1 Armando Rodriguez started Mets lost 3-1. Mets had 5 hits the whole game. Wheeler didn’t pitch.
Which game were you referring to that Wheeler blew?
Uh… uh… the other one… duh.
The one he saw WITH HIS EYES! Your little score card and game recap doesn’t have that because they don’t record things like that with numbers. Well, he saw it and he remembers it perfectly. If your score card doesn’t have it, that means al lthe numbers geeks i ncharge of actually recording events are wrong.
Game 2 of the FSL semifinals, he only pitched 3 1/3 while allowing 4 runs, 5 hits and 2 walks in what would’ve been a clinching game for st lucy..
he did hit 99 MPH on a strike out though..
http://7traintoshea.com/?p=6720
semi-finals are not quite championships right?
I’ll answer to you once i see an apology from that guy up above…
No offense but apology for what? You said that he bombed a championship clinching start.
OK Alex I’m sorry. I was thinking championship finals though and wondered if there had been some other post season afterward in the Arizona Fall League or somewhere else.
Scoreless first 3 innings and a blowup in the 4th, still and all only 2 hits for St. Lucie in a 10-0 loss, not sure I’d put it all on just one guy.
T agee, thanks but i didn’t send that one to you.. i meant that for donal who try to mock me for saying i believe in what i see more than what’s written in numbers, as often we have seen, numbers can be decieving…
I’m sorry you do a horrible job expressing yourself. And that your posts read like a 14 year old girl’s myspace page.
“Numbers can be deceiving”…..but your eyes and memory are perfect?
Again, knew it was a clinching game in the playoffs, not sure whether it was the championship or not, or all remember was him coming up rather small in a big spot for the team.. wouldn’t you agree? and i am still waiting for my apology from that guy (not you TRS86) who said i was making up that start by wheeler.. trying to mock me..
Well in truth you misspoke. However, imagine how long we would have to wait to get apologies for things said by some of your “buddies”.
Hey TRS86, you’re one of my buddies, does that statement you made include you???
Fortunately I am not part of tha Coe. (Sorry if I am imagining how it would sound when you say it aloud).
Nolan Arenado is one ahead of Wheeler at #26…it’s not too late, Mr. Alderson!
By the way, that Pomeranz guy that everyone busts a nut over is ranked at #45.
Why on earth would the Rockies make that trade?
At this point there’s a slim chance as a snowball bursting into flames. Later if Wright rebounds and they get desperate?
But yeah, talking about netting anything of substance for Wright right now is pointless.
True, Wright is worthless now…the Mets sat on their hands too long with this guy. However, the Rox did try to get him last season and tried to start talks early this offseason for Wright. Considering that the Rox love to overpay for people, they could do a sign and trade with Wright (ala the Mets’ Santana deal), and in return, since 3B would be taken care of for the Rox, the Mets could get Arenado in return. Besides, hitting in a lineup with Tulo and Cargo, Wright could actually be productive because it would be pressure free for him.
True, Wright is worthless now”
Wright could actually be productive because it would be pressure free for him”
LMAO, My god, the CORE is definetely with you….
I just think you are undervaluing the injury factor, contract price and lack of option. I think to get ultimate value for Wright we are all going to have to hope that he returns to near normal Wright levels.
Wright wasn’t performing before the injury in 2011, and he had no power in 2009 before his concussion. And, in the middle (2010), his average dropped 20 points below his career average with no injuries. His strikeouts are rising each year, while his average, slugging, OBP, and doubles are dropping. The Mets’ got all they could out of Wright and, unfortunately, they have nothing to show for it. A change of scenery is what he needs and he needs to go to a lineup where he’s not “the guy.”
You misunderstood. I am saying the injury factor is going to detract from his value until he can prove healthy.
I agree. Back issues are a turn off. However, when he came back from injury last season, in 63 games, his numbers improved. He batted .272/.349/.440, with 8 HRs and 15 2Bs…considering the lineup surrounding him (no Beltran, no Davis, no Bay – well, Bay was there, but not really), those numbers are pretty good for a high-end 2nd tier player like Wright. Obviously, he is not a superstar (Thanks, Fred), but in the right situation, he could still be a 25+ HR guy per year…that’s not happening with The Mets. I say trade him now, before his value gets lower, because, right now, I can’t imagine his value rising much by July in this lineup. Considering The Rox lineup and stadium, in my humble opinion, I believe Wright would excel there.
Hey, Trade Wright for Nolan Arenado, you’re lucky this is 2012 and not 2008.. and that this is MMO and not MB, you would’ve been banned from there for even thinking this let alone use a screen name of this kind.. for your boldness, now that the CORE salutes you!
In 2008 I would never have even considered getting rid of Wright…unfortunately, Wright has been an obvious decline since then and, let’s face it, he won’t be a Met in 2013.
By the way…I am part of the core…been commenting and used to be on the shoutbox since 2007…just changed my name a few times. Used to talk to Bayonne and Maniac all the time. My old name on here was “Matt.” However, I am very passionate about getting rid of Wright for this future stud.
LMAO!!!!! yes, matt…. remember you know… well, the CORE is with you bro.. always have been..
Revisionist again. You were never banned because of your stance on Wright, no one was. However, the way it was said and the fact that it infiltrated every post was. You still ignore the facts that all of us were banned, not just the pro or anti- Wrights.