21
2012
Wheeler, Harvey Crack BA’s Top 100 Prospects
An article by Former Writers
Baseball America finally released its top 100 prospect list today and it featured Zack Wheeler coming in at No. 35 and Matt Harvey at No. 54.
Brando Nimmo and Jeurys Familia was left off of the list.
35 Zack Wheeler rhp, Mets Age: 21. ETA: 2013. Will have to pay Paul DePodesta to dress up like Dick Tidrow now that he’s a Met.
54 Matt Harvey rhp, Mets Age: 23. ETA: 2012. He has the stuff to outperform recent Tar Heels alumni in a major league rotation, with the bullpen a good fallback option.
If you are interested, Jim Callis will be chatting about the list at 2 p.m.
Unfortunately I will be taking a test at that time and cannot ask my question. If I could I would want to know why Dellin Betances is all the way up at No. 63 while Familia was left off completely.
Betances is ahead of Familia in his development, but comes with similar concerns and has more worrisome command. I’m not suggesting that Familia is a better prospect, just that they are similar prospects and the gap between them should not be that big. Then again BA did have Nimmo ahead of Familia so they must be pretty low on the flamethrower (or very high on Nimmo).
About the Author: Former Writers
100 Comments + Add Comment
NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 42 | 30 | .583 | - |
| Phillies | 35 | 37 | .486 | 7.0 |
| Nationals | 34 | 36 | .486 | 7.0 |
| Mets | 27 | 40 | .403 | 12.5 |
| Marlins | 22 | 48 | .314 | 19.0 |
Last updated: 06/19/2013
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68 ABs and he rises like cream to the top!
Sometimes I wonder if they just pick names out of a hat when they make these lists!
Granted I actually think highly of Nimmo from the ‘MAKEUP” perspective just don’t see how when your only real accomplishment is being drafted high you make the top 100 Prospect list!
He didn’t make the top 100 list.
Out of this 100 around 89 will be bust or won’t even make the bigs.. of course, BA will never apologize for being WRONG AS HELL about prospects and their development and what they’re capable of.. when i see them in the bigs then you judge them.. how convinient yu darvish and cespedes are “prospects” and now that matt moore made it he’s #2.. Id-iots..
Actually BA is pretty accurate when it comes to these things.
Of course there are always guys that were highly rated and bust, and unrated guys who make it.
But go back 5 years and beyond and check out their top 100 lists. What you will find is a lot of everyday big leaguers and all stars.
Heres 2008 top 20: (recognize any names?)
1. Jay Bruce
2. Evan Longoria
3. Joba Chamberlin
4. Clay Buchholz
5. Colby Rasmus
6. Cameron Maybin
7. Clayton Kershaw
8. Franklin Morales
9. Homer Baily
10. David Price
11. Travis Snider
12. Matt Wieters
13. Jacoby Ellsbury
14. Andrew McCutchen
15. Jake McGee
16. Brandon Wood
17. Wade Davis
18. Mike Moustakas
19. Elvis Andrus
20. Fernando Martinez
And here is a study done on their success rate…
http://www.royalsreview.com/2011/2/14/1992424/success-and-failure-rates-of-top-mlb-prospects
Recognizing names is not a very good barometer if you ask me!
Sure they become major leaguers you will hear about and know but so too do lots of guys who NEVER make the list and probably MORE that don’t make the list than do!
I only had time to skim the article and it was nice to see the analysis. For me personally I don’t put in too much weight into these lists except for Mets players, just so I can follow them and get excited about the hype.
What I feel people have a hard time taking away from these lists is just because the guy is ranked #25, doesn’t mean he will even make the major’s. There just isn’t enough turnover. There are 750 players on the 25 man major league roster at any given time. If all these guys were good enough to make the MLB, you are talking about a yearly 10% turnover rate just on hot prospects. There are also plenty of players that have been in the minors for long periods of time or guys in Mexican leagues or overseas, that get playing time.
It should be more looked at like out of the most recent prospect pool these 100 are the best. Not all will make it but these are their strengths and weakness’s and this is how it can translate into the MLB if they get playing time.
Gary I have no problem with the list itself only it’s use as a barometer of how well they think a GM is doing!
It’s about garbage in garbage out!
Fine it gives fans hope to see their team’s players on the list but knowing how often those players come off the list without a whisper or fanfare, it really is about as useful as a Mock Draft that goes to hell because one team doesn’t pick they way they expect and blows the whole order to hell!
I have no problems with people casting hope on Nimmo and Wheeler I’m sure they are capable of everything said about them! I alos know they are capable of being as goof as F-Mart in two years too!
And I have no problems with people using the information found in BA’s review to talk about them!
But to use how many guys are on that list knowing that once you get past player 5-10 your basically at a coin flip to give points to a GM on how WONDERFUL he is and how great a mind he is I tend to want to call the bull as bull!
You (not you gary just you in general) like the GM fine! Say that and don’t call me crazy for not thinking he has fixed anything yet!
Cause I tend to give merit based on accomplishment not just hope!
Again I don’t think I’ve ever said I liked Sandy, I merely point out I don’t want to attack him or suck him off quite yet.
These lists can be a helpful tool to judge the FO’s ability to scout and develop talent or to evaluate whether a team is putting a focus in these areas or not. Not just the GM but the organization as a hole. Teams like the Yankees Cardinals and Braves prove this year in a year out. They do a great job with scouting and development and the results are representative of that. We might not see it as much with the Yankees on the field, but they spin it off just fine ala the Pinieda trade.
As for the Mets I don’t blame Phillips, Duquette or Omar for the development results, but I probably due blame them for not having adequate enough resources in these areas. Their draft picks have been poor on average, but I don’t feel this rests squarely on the GM. That’s why the team employes scouts to evaluate and recommend. A GM can’t run the operations of the team and travel to 100 different fields in a year.
I’d say that Metsie’s link which shows a success rate of 59% for hitters and 32% for pitchers should be compared to our actual results. Are we in the same ball park?
I can think of true successes like Alfonzo, Ordonez, Reyes and Wright as well as guys that would be considered successes but not superstars like Pelfrey but I can think of many many guys who couldn’t be considered successes. Escobar, Milledge, Humber, Fern, Geotz, Petit, Guerra ect and see what our success ratio is compared to everyone else’s.
If not could that account for some of the lackluster results we’ve been experiencing?
Maybe it’s a development issue that has caused us to go low ceiling, medium floor get up here as quick as possible types.
“Maybe it’s a development issue that has caused us to go low ceiling, medium floor get up here as quick as possible types.”
Exactly. Not all teams utilize the same drafting/scouting philosophy and shouldn’t be judged as such. The Mets are a different team with different goals than the Royals, usually they are anyway
What they did get was not great, but they also chose to focus more resources on free agency.
Well Gary then you should have understood the folks who have said Sandy has not done squat instead of interjecting because we weren’t arguing about how well sandy is doing nor asked for him to get fired!
We have pointed out what we did because someone was trying to say he has done a GREAT JOB when no evidence of such a job exists!
Just as you would argue if someone came out and said Sandy should be fired and you make a case against that despite your own opinion of NOT YET ANYWAY!
You missed the point of the knocking Sandy!
Not to get rid of Sandy but to stop his CHEERLEADERS (get the reference now?) From making him out to be successful despite showing not a shred of success yet!
When he DOES I will be there!
Not UNTIL he does!
This team is worse not better!
I won’t say and will argue with those who say it IS better!
You inserted yourself into that conversation!
And thats why you got lumped in with those said “Cheerleaders”
I bet we both agree that Sandy COULD make it better just as we probably both agree he ciould make things WORSE!
No one is arguing what the future is only those who make it sound like everything is FIXED thanks to Sandy being here!
The Jury is still out!
You want to point to some of his plusses I’m with you!
But provided you also weigh the damage done to GET those plusses!
A duck is duck until it becomes a SWAN!
We are still a duck and getting uglier as each move is made! Will it lead to a SWAN?
Maybe but I’m not about to call this ugly duckling a swan till it happens!
And will argue with those who TRY to say it is a SWAN!
We clear now?
Do you get the argument you inserted yourself into despite the fact you do not believe what they have said now?
Do you get WHY Sandy has been the topic of discussion?
NOT because we all asked Sandy to be fired for what he has done!
We didn’t START this Sandy evaluation!
The Cheerleaders did by trying to suggest he is a genius and has made the team so much BETTER while he is still in the proccess of DISMANTLING it!
Maybe that dismantle is needd but it sure isn’t progress until he takes the step and makes the ove that makes it better than when he got it!
I don’t know why you think I should of came to that assumption when anyone that makes a statement about a move which is thought of positively are attacked and called names. How is someone going to come to that conclusion? Personally I am fine with the Beltran and KROD trades so I get labeled a Sandy fanboy and apologist immediately out of the gate. I come out against the Pagan trade and it’s ignored or I get a long dissertation on how Sandy is single-handedly destroying the franchise. What you wrote above is the first I am hearing of that thought being laid out. Forgive me if I think you are trying to revise “The Cores” position”. Just look at Bayonne’s post a half hour ago, how should I come to your conclusion with that statement, CMON…
My questions would be who are these Cheerleaders you keep referencing?
I read here pretty regularly as well as several other sites. This is what I’ve been seeing around town:
- I’ve seen a contingent of Met fans that hate SA, all he’s done, all he stands for.
- I’ve seen a contingent of Met fans who are happy he’s the GM and believes he’s heading the franchise in the right direction. More so with the shakeup with minor league and scouting than what he managed to obtain during the off season with limited funds so far.
- I’ve seen a contingent of Met fans who are reserving judgment on SA, willing to give him more time to see if the direction he’s heading the franchise in is a good one.
- I’ve seen the contingent of Met fans who hated all things Omar and would take Mickey Mouse as a replacement – so to those fans SA is an infinite improvement.
- I’ve seen a contingent of Met fans who have been encouraged by most of the FO moves so far, but have voiced their dislike or puzzlement over some of the moves made – such as BP arms.
What I haven’t seen is too many Met fans at all declaring SA to be some type of savior and is praising every single word and every single move – as some of you keep alluding to.
Post something along the lines of Sandy sucks the list will practically build itself!
Good read Metsie, thanks for the link.
Still doesn’t show a success rate of 10% though. Shows a success rate of 59% for hitters and 32 % for pitchers. That’s no where near 10%.
Doesn’t account for guys like Petit, Guerra or Geotz who even though they busted helped us get Delgado, Santana and Piazza.
Try getting one of those guys with Jason Bay.
On average they bust 69% of the time!
Thats less than one right for every three named!
Hardly 59% Success.
As for listing SUPERIOR players they have a 20.27% success rate!
20 out of 100 not 10! Big Diff? Not really! 1 more player in 10 compared to 90% failure!
The rest are all just run of the mil MLB players!
So they bust 70% of the time and 20% are Actually superior players and the rest are all mediocre MADE ITS!
You see they included the 20% SUPERIOR into the percentage on SUCCESS!
Basically they are nothing more than a coin flip from 1-20 in finding an MLB player with only a 30-35% chance that the TOP OF LIST guys will actually be superior the rest just MLB made its, which just about anyone who didn’t read a scouting report but saw the draft position could figure out!
And the truth of the matter is the list changes EVERY year so getting dropped off the list the second year doesn’t seem to hurt their chances of looking smart!
That guy becomes superior he was on the 2006 list, He bombs well he wasn’t on the 2007 list!
They are nothing more than a snapshot in time that has no bearing on the future nor has any validity in how well you did when drafting!
It’s a nice conversation piece but it is not good for proving the worth of any prospect nor is it even good at predicting who will be an MLB player!
Flipping a coin could get you the right asnwer just as often as BA’s list could!
Greg, by then some of this players were ALREADY MAJOR LEAGUERS, so BA puts them on the list, here’s my take, go to 2007 then see how many of those 20 were on the list or around it!!?
1. Jay Bruce – Ok player, nothing special, power but a 250 hitter..
2. Evan Longoria – Really good player, #3 pick though, suppose to be good.
3. Joba Chamberlin – Really 1 good season, out of the bullpen.. Injure ever since
4. Clay Buchholz – Good Pitcher
5. Colby Rasmus – Ok player, already traded, nothing special
6. Cameron Maybin – Bum
7. Clayton Kershaw – Stud, Ace for the future
8. Franklin Morales – 4.60 ERA and already traded
9. Homer Baily – Has not done S***
10. David Price – Good pitcher
11. Travis Snider – 240 hitter so far
12. Matt Wieters – Up and down.
13. Jacoby Ellsbury – Great 1 season so far
14. Andrew McCutchen – Good player for a really bad team
15. Jake McGee – 45 innings and a 4.50 ERA so far
16. Brandon Wood – BUST!!!!!
17. Wade Davis – 4.45 ERA in 3 years is nothing special
18. Mike Moustakas – Ummm, 1 year, 5 hr’s 260 avg and shaky defense
19. Elvis Andrus – good kid, but let’s be honest, no power, some speed and a 270 career BA
20. Fernando Martinez – Need i say anything
I feel like you are being harsh on the good players just to make a point.
Andrus is only 22 and is doing very well for a SS so far.
Longoria is one of the best 3b in the league.
Bruce – you wouldn’t want him on the Mets? I would take those numbers in a heartbeat. Just because he is ranked #1 does it mean he will be Pujols.
David Price, cmon man…
Ellsbury is so young too and is is getting better every year (baring his injury year). I’ll take him anyday over Torres
Agreed, I posted a response to each individually but can’t get it through moderation for some reason. It’s clear that they did a great job with this list, perhaps because this was an easy on to do? Maybe they guessed right? Maybe they are decent at their job… lots of reasons but no reason to trash some of the budding stars in the game to make a point on BA.
1. Jay Bruce – (still just 24 years old already has 100 HR, all-star appearance.)
2. Evan Longoria – (Can’t just say well he’s supposed to be good… He is one of if not the premier 3B in the bigs).
3. Joba Chamberlin – Really 1 good season, out of the bullpen.. Injure ever since (Agreed,)
4. Clay Buchholz – Good Pitcher, (captain understatement. IF healthy he is a VERY good pitcher)
5. Colby Rasmus – (Tons of potential, yeah he has been traded already due to attitude issues but I thought those did not matter to you).
6. Cameron Maybin – Bum (24 years old stole 40/48 bases last year in his first full season, )
7. Clayton Kershaw – Stud, Ace for the future (Duh)
8. Franklin Morales – 4.60 ERA and already traded (nice solid bullpen arm, traded because of pennant race.)
9. Homer Baily – Has not done S*** (Yup, just starting pitching depth)
10. David Price – Good pitcher (Again, captain understatement. Good?, How about Ace?)
11. Travis Snider – 240 hitter so far (Do we only use BA when it supports the argument? But yeah still has a lot to prove)
12. Matt Wieters – Up and down. (Not much up and down, had the cup of coffee numbers, sophomore slump and then GG/AS season last year at 25 years old)
13. Jacoby Ellsbury – Great 1 season so far (1 great and 2 eh seasons, 27 years old with 175 stolen bases and a how the hell did he do that season)
14. Andrew McCutchen – Good player for a really bad team (Wouldn’t we love to have him in our OF?)
15. Jake McGee – 45 innings and a 4.50 ERA so far (Yeah, who is that?)
16. Brandon Wood – BUST!!!!! ?(Yeah)
17. Wade Davis – 4.45 ERA in 3 years is nothing special (I would take a Wade Davis in the middle of a rotation)
18. Mike – Ummm, 1 year, 5 hr’s 260 avg and shaky defense (He’s 22)
19. Elvis Andrus – good kid, but let’s be honest, no power, some speed and a 270 career BA (UH, could not disagree with you more on this one… Has Jose Reyes like potential, the kid is 22).
20. Fernando Martinez – Need i say anything (Crap, sealed Omar’s fate).
1. Jay Bruce – (still just 24 years old already has 100 HR, all-star appearance.) AND???????
2. Evan Longoria – (Can’t just say well he’s supposed to be good… He is one of if not the premier 3B in the bigs). ISN’T THAT WHY HE WAS PICKED #3?? HOW MANY #3 PICK DON’T PAN OUT TO BE NOTHING??
3. Joba Chamberlin – Really 1 good season, out of the bullpen.. Injure ever since (Agreed,)
4. Clay Buchholz – Good Pitcher, (captain understatement. IF healthy he is a VERY good pitcher) IF?? IF??? SO IT’S OK TO USE IF NOW?!?!?!
5. Colby Rasmus – (Tons of potential, yeah he has been traded already due to attitude issues but I thought those did not matter to you). THEY DON’T, THERE’S NOTHING SPECIAL ABOUT HIM WOULDN’T YOU SAY? DON’T GIVE ME POTENTIAL, GIVE ME STATS?
6. Cameron Maybin – Bum (24 years old stole 40/48 bases last year in his first full season, ) AGAIN, 3 TEAMS IN 5 YEARS, 255 CAREER HITTER WITH NO POWER 9 HR IN 1200 AT BATS
7. Clayton Kershaw – Stud, Ace for the future (Duh)
8. Franklin Morales – 4.60 ERA and already traded (nice solid bullpen arm, traded because of pennant race.) 4.60 ERA… ENOUGH SAID
9. Homer Baily – Has not done S*** (Yup, just starting pitching depth)
10. David Price – Good pitcher (Again, captain understatement. Good?, How about Ace?) ACE?? REALLY???
11. Travis Snider – 240 hitter so far (Do we only use BA when it supports the argument? But yeah still has a lot to prove) WHAT ELSE DOES HE DO?
12. Matt Wieters – Up and down. (Not much up and down, had the cup of coffee numbers, sophomore slump and then GG/AS season last year at 25 years old) 1 GOOD SEASON 2 BAD ONES
13. Jacoby Ellsbury – Great 1 season so far (1 great and 2 eh seasons, 27 years old with 175 stolen bases and a how the hell did he do that season) AGAIN, 1 GREAT SEASON, REMAIN TO BE SEEN WOULDN’T YOU SAY?
14. Andrew McCutchen – Good player for a really bad team (Wouldn’t we love to have him in our OF?) YEAH, BECAUSE AS I STATED MANY TIMES, WE ARE NOW A BAD TEAM
15. Jake McGee – 45 innings and a 4.50 ERA so far (Yeah, who is that?)
16. Brandon Wood – BUST!!!!! ?(Yeah)
17. Wade Davis – 4.45 ERA in 3 years is nothing special (I would take a Wade Davis in the middle of a rotation) AGAIN, 17 BEST PLAYER OUT OF 100. NOTHING SPECIAL
18. Mike – Ummm, 1 year, 5 hr’s 260 avg and shaky defense (He’s 22) DON’T CARE, NUMBERS, ISN’T THAT WHAT MOST OF YOU BE PREACHING!!?? STATS???
19. Elvis Andrus – good kid, but let’s be honest, no power, some speed and a 270 career BA (UH, could not disagree with you more on this one… Has Jose Reyes like potential, the kid is 22). DON’T HURT YOURSELF, REYES WAS DYNAMIC, ELECTRIC FROM DAY 1, THIS KID IS OK, NOT EVEN CLOSE TO BE A REYES LIKE PLAYER.. NOONE IS..
20. Fernando Martinez – Need i say anything (Crap, sealed Omar’s fate)
Alex if the BA top 100 was to play they way you expect (based on your player evaluations above), the talent pool in the MLB would be gangbusters. Everyone would be so damn good there wouldn’t be any advantages from team to team. It would be parity to the extreme.
Salty, again, my point is, they’re wrong as hell most of the time, mostly based players ranking because they’re first round picks, and the ones they come with up that are not is because they exceed all kinds of expectations and/or come to the bigs and perform really well (Matt moore)
What is your solution for getting predictions to 90% accuracy? If you can do that, you will become the richest man in baseball.
Keith and Gary said that Jay Bruce is very mechanical in the field. I took it they were not impressed with him defensively.
Elvis Andrus has the tools to be a really good player. He’s fast, steals one base every fourth game, and fields pretty good. Much like Ruben Tejada but with more upside. Andrus made the 2010 American League All-Star game. He hits a lot of triples.
Also to be somewhat fair to FMART that was 5 years and 500 injuries ago. Who knows how good he could be if he was just able to play consistently and be able to walk pain free.
Nope they are supposed to anticipate injures.
Sure, but when the list was compiled in 2007 was it expected that he was made out of glass? I don’t remember injury concerns back then, but there could of been.
Sorry, you missed my sarcasm.
I remember before the days of surfing the web for intel buying Baseball America to read about some of the up and coming prospects in baseball. They have been around for a longtime and for good reason. Cause they have built a reputation of providing some good insight on prospects.
For me it was about a good source for getting to know more about a player that I may not have previously known. Expecting them to predict with certainty what in their opinion is their view of a prospect in the longrun was never a focus.
Baseball America, Keith Law, Jonathan Mayo, Petey Pete these guys are all just giving their opinions on why they like or don’t like a prospect. I would not hold Mayo responsible for guessing wrong anymore than I would hold Pete.
You read their opinions and make up your own mind if you agree or not and watch to see if it comes to fruition.
2 Years ago my wife bought me their book, and I was like “what the hell am I supposed to do with this’? The internet has changed things so much. When I was a kid I read those books every weekend trying to memorize the numbers and up and coming stars. Now it just takes to long to look for things.
LoL, I don’t know if you remember but for a few years the people at Elias started publishing a yearly book simply titles “The Elias Baseball Analyst” I used to buy them I have them from 1988 thru 1991 and if I remember correctly they never printed a 1992 edition.
Anyways before the internet this was the most detailed view of splits I had ever seen. The 1988 edition on the Mets 87 season read as follows.
“Everyone already knows why the Mets didn’t repeat as division, league, and World Series Champions last year. The analysis began last Spring, and continued right through the season: Doc did drugs, McDowell had a hernia, Ojeda hurt his elbow, Sid ate too much, Darling thought too much, and Davey preened too much. Apart from the injuries to the pitchers and the alleged managerial blunders, everything at Shea was just as fine as could be.
After all, didn’t Strawberry and Johnson become the first teammates in planetary history to join the 30/30 club in the same season? And didn’tHernandez hit .292, McReynolds drive in 95 runs, and Carter, even in a half year, knock out 20 dingers? Not to mention Tefel’s 43 extra-base hits, Dykstra and Wilson hitting a combined (albeit unhappy) .290, and Magadan and Mazzilli having daily discussions on what it’s like to hit .300 and not be able to crack the starting lineup.
Well gather ’round, boys and girls, all three million of you who danced into Shea last summer, and hear the real reason that the Mets didn’t beat out the Cardinals:
They didn’t hit well enough in the clutch.
It goes on for quite a bit more but basically it focuses to start on how the Mets overall BA compared to what it was with RISP which in 1987 was .268/BA overall and .254/BA with RISP a -14 difference.
I mean for me back in 1988 this was some interesting reading.
Good read MNJ,
So I suppose we can eliminate just one pitch to Terry Pendleton as being the cause for missing the playoffs huh?
Good to know.
I am sure I read those Elias books cover to cover back in the day. That stuff was so cool. Before it’s what you got from stats on a baseball card or newspaper articles but to see it broken down like that was mind blowing.
Ha! you just reminded me about how the Daily News used to have the daily pitching matchup for baseball. They would not only give you the games pitchers but their overall record their record vs each other and if I remember right their record over the last 3 starts. Plus I think you got home and road splits. I remember how good it was that it showed you some insight at some of the lesser known pitchers around baseball. I had buddies that placed bets sometimes because of what they read in the Daily News match-ups.
It really is something how the internet and access to information has changed.
Haha yea that stuff doesn’t sell newspaper articles anymore, so it got the boot. I used to wait for the Sunday sports page like a crack addict. Then turn on WWOR for the game and see Ralph and Tim all drunk. Great times.
Hahahahha! Oh man the Sunday paper yeah it gave you the statistics for how everyone around MLB was doing.
You know back then for me at least the only way to see what was going on around MLB was watching T.W.I.B. This Week In Baseball. I mean hearing the voice I believe of Mel Allen at the start of the show was like a call for anyone that simply loved baseball that you was about to get 30 minutes of great baseball coverage.
Holy nostalgia lane. Yea that show was great and it’s really not the same anymore either. I don’t think the format has changed but with 24/7 coverage ti comes off dated. back then that was the only time you can catch an interview with someone like Kirby Puckett outside the his market. Also I am not usually at a TV Saturday afternoon and don’t catch it.
Who Buys Newspapers these days? There is an APP for that!
LOL
But is the reason they have been around a long time because of how good the information is or because it is information the public wants and can’t get?
If the info is so good why do Baseball teams keep Scouts on the payroll and not just buy the book every year to get the GOOD information?
It sells well because it has information people can’t get thats all!
Not because it is a bastion of accuracy or quality info!
It has content that is hard to find and because not many other sources sell tnat info they have a corner on the market!
Just as Stock Brokers compile info you buy to make decisions on investment!
It’s not the accuracy that keeps them in business it is availablilty to the information that their clients don;t have that keeps them coming!
To that I would say there have been plenty of companies that have produced these kind of books and periodicals and BA is still around. So there has to be value in the information that they provide and not just demand on particular content. If that was the case the internet would of taken them out a long time ago.
Teams to have to have scouts. They can’t go by the blubs BA puts out. They also need to evaluate players based on need and the tools they are looking for.
yes there are! Mel Kiper has made a nice little career doing that…And he’s almost NEVER right! LOL
It’s a business that sells content not easily found!
It’s sales are notbased on rality or accuracy it is based on they have scouting reports you can’t get unless your an MLB team!
And the MLB team doesn’t go by their book!
DO you think a trade is proposed and Sandy picks up the copy of BA sitting in his office and makes a decision based on that?
Or does he go to the computer server where all the scuting reports of the scouts he trusts are kept to decide?
It’s a nice little Niche content market that sells well to guys who post a lot on the internet and want to sound like they know ANYTHING about a player they have never seen or talked to!
And thats why it’s so popular not because it is a bastion of accuracy!
The point I was trying to make is that BA does an excellent job predicting prospects. Much better than 11 out of 100.
Take a look at the entire 2006 top 100. About 50 of them become regular big leaguers. Thats an incredible success rate when trying to predict the future performance of human beings.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/2006/26660.html
Excellent job?????? really??????
11 Out of 100 from ther list….
How many out of every 100 who do NOT make thier list?
10% success rate is hardly success!
it’s a 90% failure rate if you ask me!
When was the last time you got a 10 on a test that rates at 100 and passed?
There are only 750 jobs in MLB so any annual list of 100 guys has as much chance of a 100% success ratio as a ML hitter does of hitting 1.000 for a year.
The competition from below as well as above is ferocious for such a small amount of available jobs.
Hi Metsie — good point but it depends on the sport. In professional boxing, often the Champ is the only guy with the respected record. All the other guys, despite their greatness, fall by the wayside and are just contenders, AKA ‘also rans’. Using a championship belt as a standard of success, the dropout rate is very high.
By the way, I have a daughter into the performing arts. She has sung at Lincoln Center, St. Patrick’s Cathedral, and other high performance venues. The competition there is terrific too. Only a small number ever make it to be household words. Based on numbers alone, though, it is not as competitive as major league baseball. I ran the numbers a few years ago, Every guy who makes an MLB team is an outstanding player.
Yep and coming up with a list of the top contenders in Boxing doesn’t mean any of them will even get a chance to fight for the belt!
It’s a snapshot in time nothing more.
Nice to start a conversation with but hardly any empiracle proof of how well you have drafted.
I agree with you that making the MLB makes you a SUCCESS! Does for the purposes of that study too!
But this list is guys they noticed or guys the scouts FOCUS on nothing more!
And for every guy on the list that makes it to the MLB there are two who don’t ever get listed and make the MLB!
It’s fine to look atthe list and say hey they got x number of guys they can promote.
Another thing to judge which team drafted better or has the better farm purely based on that!
Because for every Nimmo and Wheeler there is a Dickey a Turner and Tejada and Duda who make it to the MLB for each guy on that list!
So really they aren’t really telling you all that much!
Just the guys people have high hopes on, it has little to do with who ACTUALLY will be a star or make any meaningful contribution in the MLB!
Metsie — Agreed. It’s just a reference at a point in time. Nothing more.
from BA:
LASTINGS MILLEDGE, of, Mets
“He’s going to be an all-star caliber player. You hit home runs with a quick bat, which he’s got, and down the road he could steal 35 to 40 bases.”
Missed his makeup. Maybe in Japan he learns the way of the samurai and comes back like Cecil Fielder.
So you’re blaming them because they’re not 80-90 percent right.
This of course is impossible when predicting the future of humans.
But to hit at a 40 – 50 percent rate is very impressive. And the bottom line is that they are the best in the business at projecting minor leaguers.
If you don’t want to admit that fine. But you’re clearly wrong.
No I’m merely not COMMENDING them or saying how great their list is for being 90% wrong!
If I gave you the WRONG answer 90% of the time how much stock would you put into MY opinion and answers?
Why do you insist on falsely claiming their “90% wrong?”
Did you read the link I provided Tag?
I know you like the book!
You like it because it has information you like not because of it;s accuracy cause when you look at theer accuracy it’s not much better than taking the top 20 Prospects drafted in the first round for the last 4 years, subtracting guys who got hurt or faced adversity and replacing them with the next set of draft picks who haven’t siappointed anyone yet or had one good season in A Ball!
Thats pretty much what it comes down to them doing on that list!
NONE of it is perfromance based, just opinion! And looking at what they look at to make the list any schmuck who could read could do better!
Like I said above if the book is so good why do teams pay scouts when the you can get the book for under $50?
They are…..
Is that all you have? Your assertion? Are we to take it as fact? Can you possibly provide something to support that?
You always seem to think it’s enough when YOU make assertions!
Like when? When do I ever just make a claim that isn’t backed up? When do I use myself as a reference?
Gregg, no, my point is, they get WAY TOO MUCH credit for prospects and the way they come up, they miss more than what they hit, they’re like the TIM TEBOW of prospects.. get credit when things go well but don’t get blame when the sh** hit the fans..
Milledge didn’t flame out due to a slow bat. I can’t say if it was a developmental issue or in his head. Who knows. The fact is at the time that was written everyone thought he would develop into a guy who played a good CF with power, speed and everything you could ask for. There were some questions asked about his makeup and we almost didn’t even sign him and that was no negotiating posture either.
He had no college commitment so money wasn’t the question and either was talent, it just didn’t translate and who knows maybe that was our fault. It’s not like we’ve been developing OFer’s by the bushellfull you know.
I don’t think it’s even reasonable to think he was ready after just 2.5 years in the minors anyway. Now other team brings guys up to the Majors as quickly as we do.
Tell you the truth it’s more likely than not that Milledge never faced more than a handful of starting pitchers more than once. Making adjustments to adjustments made against you is a huge part of the minor leaguers development and has ruined many a career just when it looks like it’s getting started.
It can’t always be put on the kid. It’s very likely that we haven’t been properly developing anyone for years and years now.
Sticking guys into positions they’ve never played, bringing IFA’s up at 19, HS kids at 20, college pitchers in their first professional season. No other organization does stuff like this.
In one of his early games he was facing a big time pitcher, I think it was Oswalt. He was hanging in the fine and then he threw a slider and Lasting’s swung at that thing like he’s never seen that pitch before. I’ve never seen anyone so over-matched. For the rest of the game that is all Oswalt threw and he exposed him greatly to the point every pitcher was aware, kept feeding it to him and he never adjusted. It could just be that his talent couldn’t grow to that next level of pitching. Some things you cannot predict.
Lastings’ outfield play never developed to meet expectations either. He has lots of problems going back on a hard hit fly. So he wound up, while in Washington, playing close to the fence. Of course then he couldn’t get to balls hit to short center.
9. LASTINGS MILLEDGE, of, Mets
“He’s going to be an all-star caliber player. You hit home runs with a quick bat, which he’s got, and down the road he could steal 35 to 40 bases.”
–anonymous scout
At least quote the right person Alex. I’m done arguing about this.
ANONYMOUS???? SERIOUSLY??? ANONYMOUS!?!?! come on man, be better than that… one of THEIR “scout” came with that, but of course, they do not wanna be exposed!!!!
Look, there is no way anyone can take a look at this list, a list ranking the best 100 minor league players as they project in the majors, and say they did a bad job.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/2006/26660.html
You think BA is over rated because 50 of the players didn’t make it.
I think it’s very impressive that 50 players on this list became regular big league players. And several became all stars.
I guess we have different expectations for these things.
now, gimme the lists from 2001 to 2010, let’s see then… 1 year??? 1 year they did ok and all of the sudden they do a “excellent job” come on gregg..
You claim they fail 90% of the time. Gregg actually showed us they were pretty good.
Why don’t you show us the 90% of the time they are wrong?
teah in the top 20 they are about 50/50!
The rest of the list not so much!
Anyone can tell you who the top 20 prospects in the MiLs are and get a 50 50 shot at being right!
Especially if they ignore guys with 68 ABs and wait till they actually do something good to put them on the list!
The list is originally of prospects from a;; 13 different minor leagues encompassing about 1300 different guys and whittled down to the best 100. From there, as Metsie’s link shows 59% of hitters and 32% of the pitchers are considered to be either a success or a star.
I’d like to see you guys do better especially after crowing all winter long last year about how great Thole and Parnell are or this past season over Pridie and Turner after not having laid eyes on any of them until they made the Majors.
Well here you go:
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/2007/26983.html
Done arguing this. I think we view these lists completely differently.
I look at the list expecting to see the top 100 major league prospects.
I suppose you and others view the list and expect to see 100 future all stars.
Success rates are all relative. If I scored 40% on an english exam I’d be a failure. If I got hits in 40% of my at bats I’d be a hall of famer.
BA never says that these lists will result in all players become big leaguers. They merely compile a list of what they believe to be the top 100 “Prospects” in the game in regards to how they project.
I’m not sure what you and others are looking for in these lists, but I find them informative. Especially their lists of top 10′s for each team.
Greg,i must admit, the CORE was wrong, they’re not wrong 90% of the time, more like a 75%… now, if you look closely to the list, they rate a prospect 2 and even 3 times year after year, some go high others drop on the rankings.. so.. yeah…
Read the article that your core mate Metsie posted it’s a great read. From that it says they have a success rate of 47%
http://www.royalsreview.com/2011/2/14/1992424/success-and-failure-rates-of-top-mlb-prospects
Actually gary if you average out the BUST percentage you see they really are only right about the guy being an MLB player 31% of the time!
Much less on the SUPERIOR ranking at about 20%.
They get about 20-30 guys right in 100 with only 10 on any list who actually become superior!
And the study shows that the remaining players who made thre MLB were not really all that much better than the busts!
They get the top cream right which is hardly difficult you don’t even need a scouting report for that just watch them each for 15 Minutes and you can tell who that is!
greg if you want to prove your point then you have to stop trying to reduce the bar to making it in the MLB as being right!
Because yes a lot of those guys make the MLB!
Not quite as many as those who NEVER get listed and make the MLB though!
If these are the BEST prospects then they shouldbe much BETTER than the hundreds of guys not listed that also make the MLB!
The whole point of the list (at least from those who like it) is that the guys on it are supposed to be ELITE players!
Since the charts I showed indicate that is not the case they really aren’t succeeding with what they claim to be telling you!
Make the MLB isn’t hard in fact it’s rather EASY! Just get drafted in the 1st or 2nd round and that is enough of an investment for them to eventually promote you!
I posted this question above to Alex, and he didn’t answer it… How do you get the success rate higher? The way you are approaching the validity of the list, you are suggesting that MLB should be seeing a higher influx of young talent every year. Since they are not, then the teams scouts across the board should be considered failures then, no?
But is it really all on the scouts?
Take Lastings, for example. Had raw talent from all indications.
So is the fact that he’s yet to really make it in MLB – playing now in Japan to make his way back to MLB – more so on the scouts over judging that talent or was the problem the development process?
I completely agree, but these guys are so narrow in their argument I am keeping my responses in the same light. There are so many factors, one even being Lastings music video. BA and scouts are not able to determine a players maturity level. Perfect example is Matt Bush in 2004. Had all the skills just can’t predict the guy being a complete a-h0le and having multiple assaults on people.
I followed Lastings a bit more after the Mets traded him – with his time on the Nats and Pirates.
I got the impression that his work ethic lacks – or did lack – what it takes to not only have success at the major league level but retain success. He’d showed up late for practices or miss team meetings all together.
Or maybe even though he has talent, his heart just wasn’t in it as he did have other intersts – you mentioned his music.
Personally, I got the impression his maturity level at the time was such that he just thought his talent was going to carry him. No hard work really required…..
Speaking of Lastings Milledge. I went to a Durham Bulls game last September,final week of the season and he hit a HR off Matt Moore that must’ve been 450+ feet off a 96 MPH heater.Their LF is the same as the “Green Monster” in Fenway only it’s blue. He hit the office building behind it in left center and the ball was still on the rise when it hit the building. He still has the bat speed but he has a 5 cent head.
Here’s my theory on Atlanta Salty.
They have a huge geographical territory that sits right in one of the most fertile baseball areas in the Country. Years of being on TBS and being one of the best teams in MLB over 15 years has created and maintained a huge fan base of people who are involved in amateur baseball through hundreds of Spring, Summer and Fall Leagues, traveling teams and tournaments.
The Braves scouts form relationships with all these different “centers of influence” who are already predisposed towards rooting for the Braves and they wind up getting the low down on the kids from when they first start hitting the radar around 14 or so.
In addition the Braves support these leagues and tournaments financially and with raffles of game used equipment and appearances at league functions, award dinners, clinics and things of that sort.
They do draft heavy on HS kids from their region and there have been plenty of rumblings that when other teams scouts show up many times a kid isn’t in the lineup. Other times medical records and report cards and other makeup type things aren’t always available when it’s known that Braves really like a kid they’ve probably been on since he was 16 and the scout probably knows the family really real well for a couple of years before draft day even rolls around.
In essence they’ve gotten the entire amateur baseball community in NC, SC, GA, ARK, TN, and MISS to do their scouting for them, and then keep things as quiet as possible.
t age that’s some theory! and it has credibility. how does a rival team combat that soft web of ‘conspiracy’ to funnel the gems to the Braves??!
How about hosting some amateur tournaments at Citi Field Bob. Get to know the organizers, hire some of the local scouts, invite the families, show ‘em a first class time in NYC. support the teams and leagues financially with current Mets from the area, things to raffle off. basically just barge in in a subtle way. Have a good name, good reputation and continuity in the regional scouting departments and start playing the same game.
Our low minors are in Tennessee and Georgia. We can get out and about.
t agee, that’s a great idea! has somebody told the F/O? Do they know the need here? Actually, think about it: the Se, SW. West Coast…probably produces ‘most of’ the MLB talent year after year, domestically speaking…we should have campaigns in each of these areas that showcases the Mets brand, develops networks with the local baseball networks / orgs in the regions. From HS / American Legion ball to CC and College grids. We should invest in baseball from the grass roots through our minor leagues. Establish the Mets brand. After all, we are New York!
Gary..you do understand that tere are guys who NEVER get listed that would be called a SUCCESS under the guidlines of the research I posted right?
Sure SOME percentage of prospects will ultimately FAIL!
If it was a ranking of every prospect in baseball then the point your making would be true!
But they are picking the TOP 100 of ALL PROSPECTS!
And missing 69% of the time so if they were REALLY GOOD they would get rid of some of those BUSTS who make thier list and have the guys who missed the list but become SUCCESSES instead!
THATS how they improve their success rate!
If every guy on that list made the MLB then they would be frigging genius!
How many prospects are there in the MiLs?
30 teams? Each with 3 or 4 affiliates, each affilioate with at least 30-40 players! Not even counting instructional leagues
Do the math!
even if there is a 80% failure rate of all kids in the Minors it still leaves you at least 200 who make it to put in your list of 100!
Not saying they should be right ALL the time but they should be much better than a coin flip!
They are really good.
13 different affiliated minor leagues times 10 teams times 30 players equal 3900 prospects of which they’ve whittled it down to the 100 best. Not most probable but the best.
The one’s with the best chance to be stars, not the one’s with the best chance to get up here and they’ve picked from every minor league classification from rookie league on up to AAA.
The same types of things that befall people in everyday ordinary life prospects run into as well, plus there is severe risk of injury and well as enormous competiton from above keeping them out of the Majors and from below in coming into the minors.
GM’s and professional scouts don’t do any better and really after weeding out 3800 guys down to 100 and hitting on half is pretty ****** good.
Where the hell do you keep getting this HALF from?
What is the average BUST percentage accross the 100 picks?
69%!
Thats Half? Hell it is a shade over a quarter!
If they had 6 more misses they would have had a 25% success rate and thats not 25 Cream of the croppers either! It’s just guys who made the major leagues!
Dude I know it was a long research paper but you really need to look at the data because it seems to me your looking at bthe top 10 guys and using that percentage for the entire list!
You looked at it and came up with 10%, then passed it off as proving your point.
No the 10% came from the numbers Greg gave us!
He showed us 10 guys from a list of 20 out of 100 and I said thats 10% of that 100 he didn’t mention!
It was towards his argument that 10 out of 100 was good not what my research showed!
Oh, alright sorry, I misunderstood.
Still and all though even at 31% of the top 100 that’s from 4,000 total prospects throughout all the affiliated minor leagues. That’s about a 99% hit ratio and in a highly competitive environment in which there are only 750 jobs in total, many of which are occupied for ten years or more, and it encompasses a demographic that has the highest general risk of accident as well as an activity that produces a much higher than average rate of career changing injuries.
I’m not sure how the list of top 4,000 nuclear scientists among the same demographic might perform even without the injury factor.
One thing that stand out pretty clearly though is that according to your link the Braves aren’t that much more successful, they’ve just had so many more guys on these lists to begin with so in essence it’s a numbers game and each bust gets you one step closer to a hit and it fails to take into account the value guys on these lists provide for trades even when they ultimately wind up busting.
Perhaps the idea should be to get as many guys as possible on here and trade for guys who’ve already made it. It is the one thing we have been successful with through the years with Santana, Delgado, Leiter, Piazza and Hampton, far better than our results in free agency and it didn’t take a genius to see Beltran was a wise use of a draft pick.
The NYY, Braves and Phillies always have attractive prospects to offer as well as mostly complete 25 man rosters. Even the guys who bust wind up having value you just have to get off them quickly and that comes down to your scouts and farm director.
Buy to rent then replenish.
But thats just it Tag….
There are over 4000 Prospects out there (probably way more!)
If your only picking 30 out of 100 that are actually at best just MLB caliber and not even but including the ones who are something special out of the 100 (and they get about 2 in every 10 as special right which means about 6 of those 30 are actualy superior compared to the Made the MLB lot!)
There has to be at least 300 that do not get picked as TOP prospects who are just as good as the 30 they wound up picking! And I’ll bet there are quite a few SUPERIOR players in there as well!
And they didn’t even make the list!
Sure they get the top of the top thats not really all that hard to do as I said!
But they are so WRONG about the other 70% and WRONG for not listing those other 300 who were better than 70 guys on thier list!
How can you think that Ranking says anything about what you have? How credible is it when you have close to 400 guys to pick 100 out of and get 100% success?
If you avoided the list entirely and only went for players NOT on it I bet you would have just as much chance finding a great player and their SUCCESFUL ones as they do!
Sure they get a few right but not because they evaluate them all that well but because everyone in the league knows who is the best and most promising and if you start with those 10 kids (most are just top draft picks (see Nimmo and Wheeler) on your list it isn’t all that hard to find another 20% that will make the MLB!
Because throwing darts at name cards probably will get you a 30% correct rate on their SUCCESS scale!
Throwing Darts at names would almost be as effective!
It’s not about how many they get correct, Look at all the guys they get WRONG and I’m not just talking about the guys ON the list I’m including the guys that were not but did better than guys who were!
Yeah I know Metsie but it’s such a difficult task. It’s always been and I don’t see that changing. What I do see changing though is by going for the higher ceiling prospect you get a chance to have a guy who plays great for 10 years, in all or at least most aspects of the game. If you can start moving some of the decent, OK, good at something types into this other category you don’t need as many because you have long term occupants at certain positions then move some of your busts into the decent starter category so your stating 8 has 4 conerstones and four decent players. At some point all of those guys primes are going to converge. Now you got something.
Same with pitching. High ceiling, good makeup, great stuff and enough of them not only for yourself but to get the Lee’s and Halliday’s. One thing that has allowed the Phills to make so many trades is they will have 5 of their starting 8 all together for 10 years. That closes the need and allows you to upgrade elsewhere. We’re bringing in a different under performer every other year for 5 or 6 positions.
It will always be about scouting, evaluation and development and it will always be a numbers game but at some point it has to be about elite talent level, the kind that’s found in the first couple of rounds and internationally. Get 5-6 of those guys all at the same time and the type of prospects we’ve developed through the years will be good enough, either themselves or in guys we can get for them.
No one is saying it isn’t a tough task to pick good prospects but when it comes right down to it and you take the busts they do pick and the total number that don’t bust in out of all MiLers your actually are getting close to that 10% correct rate when all is said and done (thats estimating 300 of all make the MLB and they find 30 that do!)
No one is saying it isn’t hard but some ARE saying that if your not on this list they aren’t worth squat and thats just not true for 70% of the guys they picked and 90% of the guys they didn’t pick (10% of all Prospects!)
Its a fine list to look at its a fine list to talk about but elevating it to the bible of who is the best prospect and who is not, Who has the best prospects and who does not is really not what I would call very enlightened!
It’s more wrong than right, There is more good than it lists.
If it had a better rate on who was going to make it to the MLB lets say 60-70% that would be one thing. But with a 30% correct rate on just making it it’s pretty useless as any meansuring stick!
Cause by any measuring stick there are more who make and succeed in the MLB that do not make the list than do!
And getting who the top 6 out of all isn’t really all that hard because everyone knows who is the best they all got drafted high as well before any book was published!
“Making the Major leagues is easy.” Oh Metsie, that’s a good one. Yeah then go and dislodge Kershaw, Verlander, Hamels, Pujols, Caberera or Reyes.
Right.
Each team has on average three or four job openings each year and they use numerous resources to fill them including free agency, non tenders, trades, and the farm. That leaves just about 30-45 graduates of the farm Major league wide for these prospects to feed into.
The list is of the 100 with the best chances, not the 100 who will be future superstars, if it was do you think we would have traded three guys on this list for Mike Piazza?
If the list was expected to be 100% accurate why wouldn’t Dombrowski have traded for Piazza to the Blue Jays for Halliday and Wells back in ’88?
Easy to pick who does! Way to read there!
so wait, they rate the best 10 prospects and only half of them do good?? the other half become garbage/busts???? that is TERRIBLE!!!!!!! what kind of crap is that… so is that why kansas city and the pirates despite picking top 10 for a bunch of years have nothing to show for?? should they be happy with BA??? gimme a break..
Thats baseball Alex. And actually you’re high. If a club gets 3 of their top 10 to become regular Major Leaguers they’ve done a pretty good job.
And talent always varies. An organizations top 10 may be great in say 2005 and awful in 2011. So much depends on how they drafted and developed players ect….
The bottom line is that they are projecting the future performance of Human Beings. This is not some 10th grade math test in which 50% would be a huge failure.
I don’t know what lists, in any sport, have a higher success rate in projecting amateur players.