3
2012
Do We Need To Start Fearing The Nationals, Could They Win The NL East?
An article by 
With the Nationals acquisition of Edwin Jackson yesterday, we need to start seriously considering them as legitimate contenders to not only have a good season, but to potentially win the NL East or at minimum steal a wild card berth.
With their off season additions the Nationals will have a very well rounded and talented starting rotation. A rotation of Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Edwin Jackson, Jordan Zimmermann and John Lannan spells trouble for NL East and the rest of the National League.
Not only are they talented but they are extremely young. Their rotation is now full of young power arms who consistently sit in the mid-90′s. This team is not only building to win now, but they are setting themselves up for an extended run of success.
Why are they good enough to win the NL East?
The Nationals have been basement dwellers for a long time, and as a result happened to come across 2 all generation type players in Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper who were both taken 1st overall. They have 3B/2B Anthony Rendon who was taken 6th overall, although he would have went #1 if he did not get injured. Many scouts believe he will be ready to join the Nats this season, if he does the Nats will have to decide who he is going to replace in the lineup. They have a very talented bullpen starting with young closer Drew Storen and all-star setup man Tyler Clippard.
They have some very solid veterans in Adam Laroche and Jayson Werth, Michael Morse has a ton of power, and Ryan Zimmerman is an all-star third baseman. Ian Desmond and Danny Espinosa both showed flashes last season, although they struggled a little bit at times.
off season additions such as Brad Lidge, Edwin Jackson and most notably lefty Gio Gonzalez from Oakland have pushed them into the discussion of possible contending teams. Gonzalez struck out 200 batters last season and sported an ERA of 3.12, down from 3.23 the year before.
Why the NL East may be winnable.
Many people believe the Phillies are going to run away like they did last season. I disagree with that assessment, although it is possible. While great, their rotation is getting older and both Lee and Halladay have an injury history. Rollins is not the same player and they lost Roy Oswalt .
Howard is going to miss a few months due to his torn achillies tendon, and Chase Utley is one bad tweak of his knee from season ending surgery.
Atlanta still has very little offense, even though their pitching will carry them for the most part.
Florida while much improved is still a bit of a question mark. Their major offensive addition is VERY injury prone as we know, but is a great player and catalyst when healthy. Their pitching rotation is improved, as well as their bullpen with the additions of Buehrle and Heath Bell, but they are both in their mid-thirties. Carlos Zambrano is an enigma and could be great or have another psychotic breakdown on the field.
The Mets….well….are still waiting for the cavalry to arrive in 2013-2014.
The days of the Nationals being cellar dwellers and considering mediocrity a successful season appear to be coming to an end. They are no longer going to be the whipping boys of the National League East. It’s time to start seriously worrying about them, because at this point they have the brightest future of anyone in the National League East.
What do you think?
If you would like to read more of my thoughts and opinions come check us out at BigAppleMetsTalk.com
About the Author: Dan Valis
I am a staff writer for Mets Merized Online. I am a Mets team analyst with a focus on the minor league system, as well as the major league club. I am a lifelong New Yorker who was born and raised to be a Mets fan. The ups and downs of being a Mets fan is what makes following this team so much fun, but at times so frustrating. You can follow me on Twitter @BgAppleMetsTalk.
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For me here is why I’m not worried with the Nats.
For starters it’s February. Nobody was “afraid” of Arizona in the West last year were they? But back to baseball…
Will Strasburg be healthy enough to play an entire season? What will they get out of Wang? Now that they got Edwin, where does that put Lannan? Will Bryce Harper land on Opening Day roster per Davey’s wishes? If so, what will they get out of him?
Can Werth bounce back and can Morse prove his season was not a fluke? If Harper joins the team that means you have an OF of Morse-Werth-Harper. Not exactly a rangy outfield in a big park plus it makes Mike Cameron a bench player.
Can they get the ball to Clippard and Storen? Their middle releivers are questionable in my view outside of Burnett who is very solid.
I think the NL East will be a dog fight for a while and I think it’s all about health. I think when teams bring in a bunch of new players it isn’t a sure thing they will all gel.
Some people here act like the Braves are an 80 win team because of their choke job. They aren’t the Mets. They have a Hall of Fame 3B a young rotation outside of Hudson and a stellar bullpen to pair with a young core in Heyward/Freeman lead by McCann.
Regardless, I do not think the Mets are a 100 loss team as some may suggest.
Jessep: “I do not think the Mets are a 100 loss team as some may suggest.”
110? If so Bayonne will be smiling in his bucket of tears.
If Santana can prove to be healthy and Wright/Bay snap out of it even a little I see no reason why the Mets cannot match or be within a few games of last years total of 77.
I don’t think the 2012 Mets are that much worse than the 2011 Mets, they are just different.
Jessep — I’m only having a bit of fun. I hope the Mets win at least 80 games. The more the merrier it would make most of us.
Like you, I’m far from convinced Philly is running away with the division this season as well.
The Nats have a combination of highly rated young talent by virtue of getting top picks for finishing in the cellar and having one of the richest MLB owners.
Time will tell if all their moves pan out. I think the Werth contract is a bust but if that’s their only problem, they’ll no longer be dwelling in the cellar.
NL East still winnable? For who? The Mets?
IMO, in order for the Mets to win the division in 2012 it’s going to need to be the Perfect Storms of perfect storms….
the only way the mets could win the division is if the other teams end up in plane crashes.
I agree about the long shot aspect, but at least there is a scenario you can put together that does not involve a miracle or natural disaster.
The team does have talent on it.
As in Philly falters due to age, injuries and offense troubles,
Nats not quite there yet,
Marlins SP not being enough and gamble on the Reyes/Ramirez swap,
Braves maybe not doing enough to improve this year,
and the Mets playing so far over their heads we can’t seem them through the clouds?
Sign me up. That would be a fun season to watch…..LOL.
The Nats have four players, two up here (Zimmerman and Strausberg) and two on the way (Harper and Renden) who were either the 1st or 6th players taken in the draft. That is a huge advantage that none of the traditional powers in baseball have ever had the benefit of and their owner is the richest man in baseball so there is every chance that they will be able to keep them together for quite a while. Storen was the 10th pick in the first round so it looks like they’ve hit on all their high picks.
They also selected well in the 2nd round with Jordan Zimmerman and Danny Espinosa. Morse and Desmond in the 3rd round, and Lannan in the 11th.
I really like what they did with their catching situation. Sellers at the trade deadline nabbed them Wilson Ramos (for Matt Capps) and a rule 5 poaching of Jesus Flores from us give them two good young catchers and allowed them to trade one of their young catching prospects (Derrick Norris 4th rnd) along with pitchers AJ Cole (4th rnd) Tom Milone (10th rnd) and Brad Peacock (41st rnd) for a real good young pitcher in Gio Gonzalez.
What hasn’t worked for Washington is the same thing that hasn’t worked for us. The over 30 everyday expensive free agent and considering how well their scouting dept has done after the first round they could conceivably have picked up that elusive CFer that is really the only thing holding them back from having a all mid 20′s starting 8, pen and rotation primed for an extended run but their pretty close right now.
“Losing” Soriano got them Jordan Zimmerman and Josh Smoker and “losing Dunn” got them Meyer and Brian Goodwin so that helps balance out the Werth mistake.
Detweiler, Solis, Smoaker Meyer, and Purke give them a real good shot down the road to keep that rotation young. Thank God they didn’t sign Crow.
With so many of the Nats everyday players, rotation and pen so young depth and reserves aren’t as vital as it would be with a mid 30′s aged team and considering how well their scouting director and scouts in general have done as well as their development staff it’s not inconceivable at all that they have the pieces to at least inquire about anyone they like if their looking for an upgrade say at SS or CF and probably already have the necessary backups in the system to back up their main guys with someone who’s still got some life in them.
I predict the Nats will win a bare minimum of 87 this year which puts them in or damn close and I see an extended run from 2013-2020 with a bare minimum of 5 playoff appearances, two World Series and at least one Championship and that’s at a minimum.
Chalk one up for the patient, mature and approach boosted no doubt by six top ten picks including two once in a generation superstars but credit them for finding All Star caliber players in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th rounds as well, letting guys like Soriano and Dunn go when it was time and planning ahead to have not just one, but two young above average catchers acquired from outside the Organization in place when they were ready to make their move.
Fear them? You should.
Is this agee guy for real???? How about the jessup? These guys must work for a comedy outfit, otherwise they need need help. Do they actually take their junk seriously? This site is an embarrassment to all met fans. Guys actually taking pleasure in the Mets sucking. You actually have a worse site than metsblog.
Ughhh,
Maybe you’ve been out of touch for a while.
Let me fill you in. Twelve losing seasons in the last 21 years, half of them with 90 or more loses.
Three post season appearances in the last 23 years. Thank God we at least led the NL in payroll during this time period or it might have been worse.
What’s your suggestion? Bring in a few more Mo Vaughn’s, Kevin Appier’s, Vince Coleman’s and Jason Bay’s?
Good thinking.
Mo Vaughn age 32 – his season with the Angels before he signed with the Mets:
272 .AVG, 36 HRs, 117 RBIs
Kevin Appier – His last season with Oakland before signing w/Mets
15-11, 4.52 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 195 IP
Kevin Appier, age 33 – HIs only season (2001) with the Mets:
11-10, 3.57 ERA, 1.19 WHIP 206 IP
Boy that was a real bad signing (sarcasm)
Vince Coleman – age 28, signed by Mets after hitting a career high .292, 77 SBs
Sure a couple of these signings didn’t work out but guess what:
SECOND GUESSING as usual
See it’s not about what a guy does for someone else, it’s about what they are going to do for you. What they did for someone else has nothing what so ever to do with helping YOU win games.
Evaluation going forward is the GM’s job, not backward. You can get any office secretary in a fantasy baseball pool to tell you what a guy did the year before.
Appier cost a number one pick, Phillips and Bobby V liked him so much they traded him for Vaughn who was out of baseball for the whole year before and was so out of shape he couldn’t even pretend to play 1B and run? He did lead the league in strikeouts though so at least he had that going for him.
Real good usage of a number one draft choice though. One year of Appier and one and a third years of Mo. Really helped with the bottom line too 82-80, 75-86 and 66-95.
1st of all, Jesus Flores is not an above average catcher.
And your massively overrating them, just you did with Atlanta last year – A “bare minimum” two WS’s? Come on.
John Sickels ranked their minor league system only one spot ahead of ours in his rankings. So lets not go crazy with their prospects because they aren’t much better than ours.
“They also selected well in the 2nd round with Jordan Zimmerman and Danny Espinosa. Morse and Desmond in the 3rd round, and Lannan in the 11th.”
Morse wasn’t drafted by them, and Desmond was drafted by Minaya, and Lannan isn’t any better than Dillon Gee…In fact, Gee is probably better.
My bad. Morse was acquired by trade, not in the draft. At least they didn’t have to resign Dunn huh?
So what if Omar drafted Desmond, he’s still a part of their team, what does that have to do with anything?
Lannan – Gee, not a bad comparison but Lannan’s been around a little longer, Gee looks like he’s getting exposed a little and Lannan could very easily be optioned down this year, Gee could very well start as our #3.
We’ll just have to disagree on Flores and see if he can make a career for himself. Since 2007 he spent half of two years as a 3rd string rule 5 and half on the DL, then got reinjured himself in rehab and now he’s playing behind a very talented catcher so we’ll just have to see what the future holds, in any event it wouldn’t even be a competition between him and Thole and while the two farms are fairly equal when you compare recent graduates we’re eating dust. C’mon, since 2005 the Zimmermans, Strausberg, Espinosa, Storen, plus Renden and Harper and 5 decent young pitchers at different levels of the farm and the goods to pick up Gio and two (imo) good young catchers? Can’t understand the negativity over the job they’ve done. I think they’ve done a damn good job and it’s going to make the hill a lot steeper for us with all these guys in their early to mid 20′s.
So yeah I see Philly fading somewhere between now and 2014, Braves being in it, but being passed by Washington and Miami getting just one post season and having the whole thing turned into a circus followed by a sell off. Who’s gonna stand in Washington’s way then, Us?
Take the hoped for best case scenario for us and go roster spot vs roster spot starting with Strausberg – Harvey and work your way down and you tell me where we come out ahead. Probably 1B as it stands right now.
Plus we both lost our ace last year and it’s a lot more likely their’s comes back 100% than ours and it’s also a lot more likely that he’ll be pitching a hell of a lot longer than our’s and when you compare ownership, well let’s just say that baseball’s richest owner compared to our owner is a pretty significant difference.
I’m not saying they did a bad job. What I’m saying is that they aren’t going to make a “minimum” of two WS’s – They are doing good, but not THAT good.
And the only reason why the guys they called up are better compared to ours, is because they have been getting the top picks almost every season – If you take out the Strasburg and Harper picks(which no skill was required to draft them) the guys they have called up wouldn’t really be any better.
And about Jesus Flores, other than that one year in A ball, he’s done NOTHING in his career, and he’s not that young anymore either, he’s going to be 27. And by the way, last year he hit .209 in the majors, and .234 in AAA – He’s NOT above average.
Granted Strausberg and Harper were no brainers but we’re still up against them for the forseeable future and both Zimmerman’s and Espinosa are pretty good too, so is Storen. Add in some good trades for Ramos, Clippard, Gio, Morse and 5 good young starting pitchers plus Renden and their a tough out, and are going to be for a long time.
A lot of their guys that are up here and playing well right now are younger than the guys were waiting/hoping on in the minors right now like Havens, Kirk, Den Deker, Gorski ect.
Flores showed some good signs before 2006 and since he was taken hasn’t really has an extended run. Most rule 5′s just get buried and he was no different but he had to be buried the following year too because his first year he got hurt, then he got hurt again so it’s not fair to say he’s had his shot and failed. 32 doubles and 21 HR’s as a 21 catcher (who projects to stay as a catcher) in A+ is probably rarer than you might think. With absolutely no other credible prospects at that position other than Pena (Thole was learning 1B) it is simply inexcusable to risk losing him regardless of how things turn out.
Lots of catchers come on strong at his age. Carlos Ruiz didn’t break in till he was 26 just to name one guy. Even if he never beats out Ramos at least he’ll get 40 starts this year and we’ll see if he shows anything even without getting to play everyday.
If we still had him there is no question he would be the #1 and compliment Thole’s weaknesses, as Thole would cover his (OB) and Nickeas would be AAA depth and the team would be stronger for it.
It will be a tough division, that is for sure. Most likely the best overall (or at least competing with the AL east).
Must be nice to have a team in the central, where everyone is a contender!
As to the Phils question, they have their “shield of invincibility” (mojo? confidence?) but they do have some issues. the offense tanked them 2 years running in the playoffs, and that is not likely getting better. Lot’s of injury issues on the field, and some no guys in bigger roles.
really, the SP has to carry them again, and at some point, you have to figure they will get bit.
last season the big 3 pitched ~ 700 innings. That is rare, to say the least. So if a couple those guys go down (lot of miles on lee/halladay, and Hamels had 2 off season surgeries) they could look real mortal real quick.
The only thing we have to fear… Is fear itself. And Sharks. And Bears. And rejection.
Honestly, the Nats are becoming formidable. Wouldn’t say the Mets need to “fear” them. But it certainly is not a top heavy division any more. It’s a battle 1-4… and our Beloved Mets in at number 5! aww yeah.
The Nats improved no doubt there. But I don’t think it was enough to unseat the Phillies for the Division. There will still be questions about Strausbourg and his coming off injury but even with all the pitching improvement they still have to overcome thier 24th in the league Scoring which is going to hold them back.
The improvement in the East is significant but I think the end result standings will look pretty similar with the exception of a closer grouping at the top.
Both the Nats and Marlins will win a few more games against the phillies and the central which will leave Philly with at best single digit lead in the standings as opposed to their 13 games last season.
As for the Cavalry coming to our rescue even assuming the BEST CASE scenario for those kids coming up we still fall far short of the others, especially when you consider that the same excuses for letting Reyes go will be used for trading Wright, and the fact that we got less for Reyes by trying to sign him than if we had just done it at the deadline, they will take less for Wright if they have to in order to not find themselves in the same position again.
Not until 2015 (The first year reyes would get a raise) when Bay and Santana comes off the books will they ever have the money to go buy some real talented ACE.
And since the cheerleading consensus here is we couldn’t afford reyes taking a pay cut for two years because of his salary accelrating in 2015 it’s doubtful we are going to be players in the NL east until 2016 or 17!
Lets get back to work buddy. Time is money.
Yep I’m leaving in a hour!
When do you work?
The glass half full analysis:
Ike Davis is the real deal and hits somewhere between .280 and .300 while driving in 100
Daniel Murphy, while no gold glover, mans 2B for the full year with a .320 average and 50 doubles
Ruben Tejada repeats his .284 from 2011
David Wright is no longer a strikeout machine, returning to his career norm of .300 with power and speed
Thole kicks it up a notch to the .275 or so range while improving behind the plate
Bay (huge IF) picks up where he left off in September
Andres Torres hits over .260, double digit HRs, 60+ RBIs, and 30 SBs. He plays GG defense
Duda has a monster year, hitting .290 with 30 HRs and 100 RBIs.
Santana, Dickey and Niese combine to have very solid, borderline All-Star years
Pelfrey and Gee don’t suck so much that it’s an automatic L in the standings
The revamped bullpen works
92 wins
The more realistic scenario:
Bay performs like Bay during his Mets career.
Torres is the second coming of Jason Pridie
Thole continues to regress with the bat
Wright whiffs 150 or more times
Santana makes fewer than 25 starts
Niese has his usual 2nd half breakdown
Pelfrey performs as he did last year
Gee gets replaced mid-season by Harvey
The bullpen proves why Toronto let two guys walk away
72 wins
so split the difference and call it 82?
The more realistic scenario:
Bay performs like Bay during his Mets career.
Torres is the second coming of Jason Pridie
Thole continues to regress with the bat
Wright whiffs 150 or more times
Santana makes fewer than 25 starts
Niese has his usual 2nd half breakdown
Pelfrey performs as he did last year
Gee gets replaced mid-season by Harvey
The bullpen proves why Toronto let two guys walk away
Murphy is a dismal failure as an every-day second baseman
Duda performs more as a 4th OF’er than starter
and …
Nickeas as the back-up if Thole falters?
no real backup for Torres in CF
and …. 72 games against vastly superior teams in their own division — PHI, WAS, ATL, FLA
Mets will be dominated basically every night …
Between 63 and 66 wins is about the best they’ll do IMO.
Make no mistake putting Murphy at 2B is Saber Sandy’s call and add to that the fact that he did a terrible job AGAIN this offseason than the Mets go no help.
Other teams signing quality players with the same cumulative money that Alderson had to work with for the 2nd year in a row and it proves this clown has no intention of trying to win with this team. Winning is low on the totem pole. Like his buddy in Oakland, let’s just get rid of guys, young or old if we feel we can’t compete. Identifying with home grown players? Not anymore, as soon as he feels the team can’t compete out they go for …cough cough..prospects
All these people saying things like “well if everything breaks the Mets way” all refuse to accept that the team could even had been BETTER if they had a GM that wanted to win. But no – let’s not try and win, sign all the cheapest filler possible, and HOPE the kids come in and rescue us.
Nice plan (not)
You know it’s fine to have differing opinions on the direction of the Mets. I actually understand with some of your concern. However, what I always laugh at is comments like “A GM that wants to win”…. Like Sandy is up there saying, man I hope we don’t win. I hate winning and I will do everything I can to keep that from happening. Obviously we could win this year if I wanted to but why would I want to win? I would much rather just sit around and suck. Do you not realize how ridiculous that sounds? Of course Sandy ultimately wants to turn the Mets into a winner, he is just going about it in a way that you don’t approve of and that’s fine. However, do you think that Sandy and the Wilpons ultimately don’t want to win at any point?
You seem to have reading comprehension issues for a teacher…
You seem to miss the point Bayonne is making in that WINNING is not Sandy’s PRIORITY!
Salary is!
He is not making DECISIONS based on what is better for WINNING!
He is making them on how much he can save and HOPING he doesn’t lose much in the proccess!
His decisions are all about what is cheap he might be able to GET BY with, Not based on what makes the team much better this year or next year.
His ONLY long term improvement move so far has been the trade of Beltran for Wheeler!
Nothing he has gotten for K-Rod will add to the future winning.
And since he got much less than he should have in compensation who can say he will get any from the loss of Reyes either?
You talk about a brighter future but what part of that Future has Sandy brought to us?
Wheeler? and WHAT ELSE?
Nothing aside from that helps us win now or win later!
Cutting Salary doesn’t help you win until you decide to SPEND what you saved!
And I can tell you we are more likely to CUT more Salary than we are to spending it!
Wright will probably be leaving soon which is great for Murphy who will have a natural position to play, but what will he get for Wright when all he could get for Beltran was Wheeler?
Wright isn’t half the player Beltran is statistically!
So when we say Sandy isn’t trying to WIN we mean his FOCUS is not on winning!
Does he hope to win? Of Course he does but he is HOPING on LUCK not CONSTRUCT to get there!
He is hoping that Torres does more than he has in the past, Francisco and rauch too!
Hoping Santana is the same guy we had two years ago and that Pelfrey Niese and Gee get better!
He is also HOPING that Omars leftovers actually are better than any of you guys gave him credit for so that guys like Harvey and Familia can get the wins, Ike and Duda can make up for Beltran and Mejia or Parnell will actually make losing K-Rod moot!
He HOPES to win…he just isn’t going to make any moves that ENSURE those wins!
It’s all HOPE, a Prayer and Salary reduction.
None of our moves are related to BASEBALL just Salary!
Thats the focus! And while you may want to blame the Wilpons for that the truth is if we are going to suck ANYWAY it is better to suck with players people would be inspired to go out and see because that at least will reduce the need to cut salary to Pirate proportions due to sustained and maybe even INCREASED attendance while we wait on these hopes and a Prayer players like Harvey, Familia and even Wheeler!
But you don’t seem to get that part, do you?
But ultimately you don’t seem to understand WHY his priority is currently salary. Again, why would he chose salary over winning if he did not have to? That makes no sense at all.
Oh Please of COURSE I know WHY he is doing it…
Having an EXCUSE doen’t make the moves good!
You want to say he is JUSTIFIED for doing what he is doing feel free but don’t try and sell us that he is actually making the team BETTER or that WINNING is his goal when we all know his GOAL is to play to the excuse not WINNING!
So you honestly think he does not want to win?
Name the moves made to date that increases the wins!
Did you read what I said? Apparently not!
Make READING what you are about to reply to as your homework assignment for the week!
There will be a surprise quiz on Wednesday!
Are wanting to win now and wanting to win later the same thing? Again you are the one having issues with the question. DO YOU THINK SANDY WANTS TO WIN? Or are you so blind that you think he actually wants to lose? Again, where you and I differ other than the obnoxious part is still that I believe there is a long term plan towards winning and they are trying to free up resources to do just that and you think they should be taking steps to win this year even if they don’t have the resources to do so.
Exactly.
Their trying to build a contending team from year to year.
It’s like a chess game. You can’t just make one immediate move that might look good at the time. If you don’t look at the position that move puts you in a couple of moves down the road…you’re likely to be hearing ‘checkmate’ from you opponent.
*They’re
Right, which is why I believe that even if they did have a great money source right now they still would not have matched the Marlins ridiculous offer just like no one else did.
name the move that shows he wants to win!
And SRT – How competitive will we be this year?
next Year?
The Year after that?
Any guarantees you can give on the next three years?
With a mandate of no salary obligations past 2013 and to cut payroll back by 50m, tell me how it is possible to construct a successful team when 4 players take up 60m, and two of those players provide little to no value.
How can you say he is ACHIEVING what you say is IMPOSSIBLE HUH?
Try reading books instead of Arriana Huffington!
You will learn more especially what it means to state the IMPOSSIBLE is happening when you admit it is IMPOSSIBLE!
Your IQ might go up!
Mine is 303, what is yours?
Wow you are wicked smart. You think you would at least have better grammar and spelling. I was expecting you were in the 80-89 range.
IQ Ratings of Over 140 – Genius or near genius
IQ Ratings of 120 to 140 Highly intelligent
IQ Ratings of 110 to 119 Very intelligent
IQ Rating of 90 to 109 Normal or average intelligence
IQ Ratings of 80 to 89 Dullness
IQ Rating of 70-79 Borderline deficiency
IQ Ratings Under70 Definite feeble-mindedness
I don’t think the Mets went broke from all the free agents we signed, I think it’s more of a case where the stench from most of those guys turned off the Fan Base.
I mean we’ve seen that movie before, you’d think maybe there would be a plot correction after the first stink in 1993 (“The worst team money could buy” pt 1) or “The worst team money could buy” the sequel) in 2003.
The Mets did enjoy the 3 best years of attendance from 2006-2008 and I’m sure sold a boatload of tickets in 2009 so I don’t think it’s fair to stick Omar with the tab on the FA situation (aside from what it cost the farm system in lost talent)
The Mets went broke cause one day the owners woke up to a 500 M loss in their investment portfolio and faced a lawsuit that at one time was targeting as much as a billion more and all this on the heels of accumulating tons of debt on the Stadium, SNY, unrealized revenue projections for the Mets and and a seriously diminishing in value primary family business, commercial real estate.
I’d say close to 11 M fans in 3 years combined with parking, concessions, two playoff series and two seasons going to the final day more than made up for all those bloated contracts but probably formed a significant part of the 500 M that evaporated.
“Exactly.
Their trying to build a contending team from year to year”
Just like Omar Minaya did. Only injuries curtailed the Mets pennant drives in 2009 and 2010. And in 2011 with Ike out – otherwise he may still be here to see all the kids produced under his regime come to fruition (hopefully).
So Sandy is trying to basically do what Omar had already done. Build a contender and have the farm come up and help maintain that level of play – but injuries stopped that from happening. Then all the off-the-field stuff piled on and that was the end for Omar.
Maybe Sandy will have better luck and his signings won’t get injured. If he’s even here to experience it.
Oh wait! Sandy’s signings are ALREADY getting injured.
Omar already did all of that. Build a contender, sign some free agents, and have the farm come up and produce with more talented players still in the farm in-waiting.
Now how about that. The only difference is going forward you hope the big players don’t get injured. That’s the only difference.
Why is this some competition between Omar and Sandy? Ultimately the Mets failed from 2007-2010 while out spending almost every team in the NL and because of that they went broke… LOL. During that time many people lost their jobs and the Wilpons are in danger of losing their team. It really does not matter whose fault it is any more. Only that some of us believe they are taking steps to correct the problem and some don’t. Is that really enough to go around calling names and acting like a 6th grader?
Sure it doesn’t matter who’s fault is it anymore because there is no argument against what Omar did. He did the same thing Sandy lovers say Sandy is trying to do now and as if it’s this brand new never-done before-approach.
Only Sandy is not trying to win as much as Omar did even though he does have the resources. And other teams signing good players with the same money that Sandy can spend proves that. He’s just signing players as cheap as possible
And they’re STILL getting injured.
Omar built a contender, signed some free agents, and had kids come up from the farm and be good. The injuries curtailed the team from bridging the gap from 08 to now with competitive possible pennant contending teams. And that’s the plan for the future so Omar already did it.
Oh and you keep referring to name calling. There was no name calling in the post you responded to so get over it, stop bringing it up and stop acting like a little drama queen.
Excuse me can you show the data that proves the Mets OUTSPENT anyone from the time of 2007-2010?
They spent a lot in 2005-2007 but after that they didn;t spend a lot at all!
Bay was the only MAJOR signing they made after 2009!
Look at how much the Phillies have spent since then!
A contending team includes a strong farm system.
Coming into 2011 our farm system was ranked 24th or 25th (depending on the site).
That doesn’t exactly give a ringing endorsement on the state of the minors.
When exactly was the last time the Mets were ranked in the top 10?
A contending team includes a strong farm? Really? Wow that must be breaking news so you should email the 29 other teams.
And while that sounds nice a contending team doesn’t HAVE to have a strong farm as crazy at that sounds. IT’s nice to have and OF COURSE everybody wants that but the 2 aren’t always tied at the hip.
And where they are ranked? That doesn’t matter for this conversation. It matters relevant to the team the Mets are fielding, not the league. I don’t do league averages in any way, shape, or form.
Omar’s kids have been coming up and contributing and there are more on the horizon and hopefully they don’t bust.
But Omar did what Sandy is trying to do – build a winner and have good kids in the farm.
Omar already did that but was curtailed by injuries in 09 & 10. You only hope that the injury bug doesn’t hit Sandy if he ever makes big signings or trades. But his signings are already getting injured.
Those are facts.
Take a gander that the Mets payroll from 2007-2010. Seems to me like they had a top or near top payroll every year.
2011: $142,797,166
2010: $126,498,096
2009: $149,373,987
2008: $137,793,376
2007: $115,231,663
2006: $101,084,963
And we know why the opening day payroll in 2010 was lower.
2010 5th, 2009 2nd, 2008 2nd, 2007 3rd in all of baseball. Yeah, not spending a thing.
Where they’re ranked doesn’t matter? Seriously?
Obviously i have to spell it out as people like you like to take things at face value.
NATURALLY every team in history wants a strong farm system so NOBODY here, when they are talking about building a farm, is saying anything new or enlightening anybody with any new information.
I said a strong farm doesn’t always equate to winning or contending seasons. You can have a weak farm and contend. It happens. Every season is different and a million things can come into play. But you don’t possess the competitive intuition to think about those things. You read papers, form opinions, and write about them on a blog. Nothing wrong with that but there’s nothing more to it then that when it comes to you
2008 committed 137 M to Santana
2008 committed 24 M to Castillo
2009 committed 54 M to K-Rod
2009 committed 36 M to Perez
2010 committed 66 M to Bay
That’s just the big ticket purchases 330M or approximately our total payroll from 2012-2015.
In order to back up your opinion bayonne that a team with a weak farm system can win, can you give us a few examples of teams that have done so?
That’s what I figured.
“In order to back up your opinion bayonne that a team with a weak farm system can win, can you give us a few examples of teams that have done so?”
According to BaseballAmerica, the Cards were the 24th ranked farm system heading into last year, and they won the WS.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/organization-talent-rankings/2011/2611472.html
The Brewers were ranked last, and made it to the NLCS. and the Tigers were ranked 25th and made it to the ALCS. The Dbacks won the NL west, and they were ranked 22nd.
So, yes, a team can win with a weak farm system.
Thank you Vinny,
Unfortunately I thought something like that would not need any confirmation. How foolish of me to figure that anybody with any kind of baseball knowledge would realize that a team can win in almost any season regardless if they have a strong farm system or not.
I did not think that would be an issue. But in this day of any ol fan who can post anything I guess you have to waste time and actually look up things to prove it when in the past common knowledge was more prevalent.
Not anymore, and especially with a complete nut case like t agee. And the man is missing a few marbles.
Thanks for getting back to me bayonne.
The reality is the farm systems of those teams, and the one’s you left off had a lot to do with their winning unless you consider Molina, Pujols, Jay, Craig not to have played much of a role for St. Louis. or Fielder, Braun, Weeks, Hart, Gallardo to not have mattered for Milwaukee or their gutting of the farm for Greinke and Markum.
Arizona’s kind of a mutt type team with a 70 M dollar payroll and cheap waiver wire/non tender guys but Montero, Upton are stars and they got Kennedy because of their farm, as Detroit got Schezzer and Austin Jackson
Detroit is a team that’s major contributors were FA’s, salary dumps or simply shrewd trades but even their farm delivered big time in Verlander, Porcello and Avilia as well.
Without the heavy lifting of the aforementioned players all these teams are in 5th place.
if anybody doesn’t walk away from t agee’s last post convinced that the man is a pathological nut case than I don’t know what else to say.
Vinny B just listed something in black and white and he STILL has excuses
But making excuses is that nut case’s MO, correct.
I feel sorry for anybody who wants to debate that pathological misanthrope in the future because:
1) You will NEVER have the last word – give him the last word is my advice
2) The man has an answer for everything and we all know about people like that, especially if you have kids. This psycho apparently never outgrew that trait. So I suggest to always let him have the last word
3) People like that are ardent internet debaters but would fall FLAT on their faces and be exposed in real life
The guy is crazy and I’ve been saying that for a long time. Like I said before he’s like one of those homeless subway people that enter a car all disheveled but will mutter and ramble on and on and on about the government and politics. Sure they are well read but the fact is people like that do suffer from a mental problem. Kind of like an autistic person who can rattle off incredible mathematical formulas, but can’t feed themselves.
Classic example of buffoon backing up his opinion, not with facts but with insults and juvenile name calling.
In support of his opinions he has nothing. He wants a team comprised solely of Mo Vaughn’s and Jason Bay’s and other assorted former all stars put out to pasture by their former teams.
Like I said, the guy’s got nothing. Nothing to back up his opinions or upstairs.
The brighter future, if there is one, are a result of all Omar Minaya regime players.
All of them. It’s too early to tell if Zack Wheeler will realize his potential. But everything else belongs to Omar Minaya.
And like I said before, injuries derailed the plan because if it were not for the injuries of 2009 and 2010 then we we would have been competing all the way right through to the present day because all the kids are starting to come up.
Kind of what the Sandy lovers are saying will happen. If not for the injuries it would have been happening already. But the frustrations of 2 collapses, the historic injuries, and the off the field nonsense all sealed Omar’s fate. But the plan was basically the same
You are right if there had not been injuries they MIGHT have made the playoffs or they could have choked just like they did in 2007… Regardless. Are we saying that Omar’s success in 2006 was due to the previous GM? Does it even matter? Point is that just like with Omar I am going to give Sandy time to put his plan in place and then judge him. I am not sure it is fair to judge a GM after one year. After 3 years if they are still stuck then I will be right there with you and Salty storming the Bastille.
The injuries the major league team endured had absolutely nothing to do with the minor leaguers stagnating. If the plan was to follow up Alou with Murphy, Murphy wouldn’t have been playing 3B in the minors. If the plan was for Duda to take over for Church he wouldn’t have been playing 1B and either would Josh Thole in the minors.
The plan for 2012 clearly was for Pena at C, Davis at 1B, Havens at 2B, Reyes at SS, Wright at 3B, Ratliff in LF and Fern in RF with CF being the one spot to look elsewhere and most likely Pagan until it was solved with some combo of Kirk, Puello, Ceccilini and Den Deker.
Santana, Pelfrey, Niese, Holt, Vineyard, Mejia, Moviel, Kunz, Gee, Goedell, Nissen, Clyne, Rustich and Parnell would form the basis of the pitching staff with Harvey and Familia on the way.
Bench and AAA depth by 2012 would include Murphy, Tejada, and Thole with Lagares, Flores and Valdespin not too far away.
With that template in place trades would be worked to compress quantity into quality and 3-4 type A free agents would replace some of the quantity shipped out once a clearer picture of who was going to make it up here emerged.
The plan wasn’t bad in and of itself, it’s just that with an average hit ratio, the forfeiture of six of the best draft choices, the drafting for need and speed, not to mention signability and the failure to take back 3 supplemental and one first round draft choice when they were right there to be had left us with fewer chances to follow up the 2006-2009 team with players groomed to step in and the talent to play well in all aspects of the game. An over reliance on drafting college players for speed and to save money made all the lost time due to injuries and failure to develop all the more damaging.
I will always believe that Minaya could have wheeled and dealed guys he inherited like Benson, Seo, Cameron, Floyd, Piazza, Humber, Gomez, Milledge, Glavine into high quality prospects in A-, A+ and AA ball which would have given us multiple options for every roster spot as well as plenty of depth and competition and saved the draft choices and drafted for top quality instead of trying to force the issue before we had the troop strength.
He then could have dealt the quantity for better quality and still had the guys in reserve coming up behind them, then go out and pick up a few type A free agents but also look at type B’s, non tenders and a rule 5 every year. All sources, not just the most expensive one.
Just live with guys Omar was able to identify like Valentin, Castro, Bradford, Roberto Hernandez, Misch, Mintcavage, or Cairo. Guys that didn’t cost anything from the future to acquire or one’s he inherited like Vance Wilson, Looper, Bell, Lindstrom, Matsui.
Sure 2005-2008 wouldn’t have been as much fun but 2009-2020 would have been great and considering where we were when he took over and the skills he was most recognized for it would have played right into his strengths and the team would have taken off right as Citi Field was opening and our biggest problem would be trying to find or afford tickets.
By 2007 the minor league prospects Minaya was able to extract from other organizations would start trickling up here and by ’08 and ’09 would start forming a solid 5-6 man core with which to add to Reyes and Wright. That combined with the prospects drafted from the 1st and 2nd rounds we gave up and a couple of trades and free agent deals would have had us on top for a long time to come.
Everyone knew how bad the situation was when Minaya took over. I don’t think anyone would have been running him out of town when they saw the quantity of top rated talent being added to the mid and upper levels of the farm system.
Met Fans have been through dark days before and seen a slow and steady progression in the farm translate into a World Championship twice before. The future didn’t have to be pulled out from under us just to try to get one ASAP and risk crashing to the bottom of the NL East for yet a 3rd time in two decades. Watching less than truely talented players for a couple of years while reading and hearing about the exploits going on in the minors is what got us through the early 80′s and while it’s not the preferred way to spend a summer it’s a hell of a lot better than watching a pile of expensive former all Stars come here and stink up the joint.
That’s what has the Fans so turned off about this team. We’ve seen this exact same scenario multiple times before and it always turns out the same way.
While there is a lot here and I am not sure I agree with all of it, it does fit that I have always said 2006 was bad for the Mets and Omar… Too good too quick. Lots of players with career years made them abandon the plan and go short sighted instead of building for current and long term.
How silly, it gets more ridiculous by the minute
2006 was bad for the Mets huh?
Nobody would be saying that if Jose Valentin got a hit.
Long term it was. Obviously we all enjoyed it but because of how it ended Omar and the Mets when right into our window is now, forget later spend spend spend mode.
Well the other thing about 2006 trs86 is the question of how good were we really?
The way the schedule works out you play almost half your games within the Division so if every other team in your Division takes a year off, that makes it a little easier wouldn’t you say?
Atlanta was under .500 for good after June 3rd.
Philly didn’t get above .500 for good until the August 21st.
Florida didn’t touch .500 until Sept 3rd
Montreal was never even .500
Basically an 85 win Phillie team that didn’t even hit .500 till they were already out of it.
Two under .500 teams in Atlanta and Florida and a 90 loss team in Washington.
In addition the entire NL was very poor that year. The West and Wild Card were taken with 88 wins and the Central with 83.
In a normal year 3 and sometimes 4 NL teams will have 90 or more wins, 2006 had just one, us.
So again how good were we really in 2006? Well clearly we were the best team in the NL but were we so good that it made sense to start going all in to try to get one ASAP?
I don’t think so, in fact I don’t think we were significantly better than the Toronto Blue Jays between 2006-2008. We won about 13 games more than the Blue Jays over that time period in a MUCH, MUCH easier division.
Anyone claiming the 2006-2008 Blue Jays were on the brink of winning a World Series?
It shouldn’t come as a big surprise that after one draft most of the prospects in an organization were acquired by the previous administration. One could say the exact thing about any GM hired a year or two ago.
Omar Minaya did add some talent into our system, no doubt about it. Familia, Harvey and Mejia, Gamboa are great examples in the minors. Ike Davis and Ruben Tejada up here are too. Parnell and Niese are certainly credible candidates for decent Major league careers as well. Thole, Duda, Murphy, Gee and Pelfrey can all give you something so he has done a good job especially within the constraints of the budget but 2/3rds of teams in MLB can match these farm results and and a full 1/3 can beat them and most teams have slightly more well rounded options available than some of the guys we’ve given starting spots to.
Don’t sell Wheeler, Nimmo, Evans, Marquez (I pray) Muno, Fulmer, Mazzoni, Leathersich, Verrett short either. it’s only a combination of those guys along with Valdespin, Havens, Gorski, Edgin, Lagares, Puello, Kirk, Urbina, Tapia, Morris, Flores and Tovar that will make the difference (either themselves or in who they can be traded for) after the Harvey’s, Mejia’s and Familia’s are up here.
Alderson’s also signed a few guys in the IFA arena including one LHP who had previously been signed before by two other teams (I forget which name he’s using right now) and let go due to identity and Jose Garcia the 3rd rated catching prospect and 24th overall as well as a few other guys so at least some of those kids are continuing to come into our system.
It’s a continual process that the best possible job must be done year in and year out to provide the best possible team and the most number of options for teams 5-10 years down the road either the prospects themselves or the players they can be traded for.
I know now the rules have been changed regarding expenditures in both Latin America and the draft (typical Mets, always behind the curve) but there is really no good reason that a team that can pay so many useless Major Leaguers such huge salaries couldn’t have at least an average farm system to begin with.
Also, where else would you put Murphy? He himself wants to start and the only spot open is 2B. The offense obviously needs him so at this point you either try him again at 2B or you trade him. If your point is that they should CURRENTLY trade Wright and move Murphy to 3B wouldn’t that do exactly what you complain about? Make the team currently worse to build for the future?
Myself I am fine with them eventually trading Wright IF the return is right but right now I don’t see that being possible.
If they found a team that can trade SP and would take Wright & a prospect or 2 in a trade cuz that team feels it can sign Wright and he will return to form it would make this team BETTER not worse. That’s the way I wanted it right from the beginning while keeping Jose and pairing him with Tejada.
Wright is a softee who is an over-rated player, a choke artist offensively AND defensively and puts up a lot of window dressing that masks as nice numbers. This team will get better once this guy is gone, as long as the Mets have something to show for it. Murphy is brainless, terrible on the base paths but at least he can hit in big spots and while a small sample actually looked better than Wright at 3B last year. I would have attempted to make those changes, no doubt about it
Softie is a little harsh. I would say that Wright and to some extent Reyes were so driven to win and to stop the collapses that they put substantial amounts of pressure on themselves and it effected their performance.
Wright is a table setter and he has been put in the position to be the clearer. When he has others hitting around him he is comfortable and hits opposite field and worries about hitting to get on base. With the team currently constructed, it is a waste of money to have him on and I am all for a trade. He would do much better in a AL style lineup.
Murph is a DH stuck on a NL team. He will be horrendous at 2nd, 3rd or wherever. He has shown the ability to hit well for contact and this team needs all the offense it can get.
You are right the team in the long run may be better off without Reyes and Wright. Glad you see that fact as well.
I love how one group screamed to the heavens anytime something was said about Reyes negatively and say “you just hate Reyes”, in the same vain, have more confidence in Murphy in “big spots” with his whole 313 games played compared to Wright at 1106 games.
Murphy has played 25 games in MLB at 3B but lets crown him the next 3b of the NY Mets, afterall Wright did leave him on 3rd in a game late in Sept 08. (oh yeah Beltran didn’t drive him in after that ab either, but lets overlook that)
For accuracy sake Delgado and Beltan were walked following Wright’s K
Church grounded out and Ramon Castro K’d on 3 pitches, but Wright is the chocker.
HE IS
Go away double standard stalker
Wright is a real softee – yeah because every player takes the field for almost a month with a fractured back.
Dude – you are clueless
“Sandy Saves”
All this new guy SaltyBalls does in post one comment snarky responses that have nothing to do with the topic at had and all it does is push back actual responses in the Recent Comments section.
A lot of the newer saber-oriented people do that – they post short, sarcastic retorts – which are not necessary – and they push back important comments (regardless of which side you stand on) back off the Recent Comments section so a lot of good comments – either way – go unnoticed because of these stupid 2 word or one sentence sarcastic retorts that waste everybody’s time
But you say the same thing over and over again and it takes you 3 paragraphs to do so. Just trying to save you time and become more efficient with your vitriol against Sandy. And for the 1000th time I am not SABR oriented. I know you want to believe that anyone that doesn’t share you opinion is, but I hoped you at least read some of my response to you.
New guy Salty? Salty has been blogging on various Mets blogs for 5+ years that I know of and possibly more. We don’t always agree but I find him to be very knowledgeable and passionate. However, like the rest of us when faced with ignorance it’s hard not to join the good fight.
Just shut up and stick to the topics, I don’t give the history of MMO with each response here so just stick to the subject.
Man this trs is a DRAMA QUEEN of the highest order, whew! Between him and that crazy guy kingman no wonder it’s a disaster over at the dirty place
You created the subject and he stuck to it numb-nuts.
I am just curious, do you think insulting our blog will actually piss us off? Do you think that is like calling us skirts or cheerleaders or ignorant? Do you think that we are middle school kids that are easily offended just because you talk bad about it? Seriously you behave exactly like the middle school kids I used to teach.
Yeah over the last 4 years we have put various amounts of time and energy into our blog and it is indeed struggling a little right now and I commend MMO and AA for being able to produce a quality blog and find devoted writers. The writers are the key, we have a group of very loyal readers but just can’t produce the stories that are not just designed to get clicks and shocks. Unfortunately even here that is the case sometimes. Hopefully when I can actually access my site from work we can get back to producing some things and you are welcome to come over and rip us anytime. Just be careful because the place is full of people who use their eyes AND stats.
I gotta tell you trs honestly. I never go to other Mets blogs. I get lumped in with AAvenue readers, never read that… but everytime your blog gets ripped by the above, I always go there and look around… bad press = good press? haha
Jessep you are a rating phenom.
Salty where I go, the people… they come with me.
Plus, how much of the “Mets are broke, team is what it is for the short term” can you write about. At least with Phillips we could chat about interns…
Yeah that’s my problem right now and why I can’t find the desire to write a post even at home. What on earth would I currently say? Mets are not the best team in the NL East, are broke, and are rebuilding while trying to slash payroll to match revenue…. The End.
I love this site for Petey Pete’s posts. Simply great and fresh info.
But for the rest, it tends to be the same old stuff, rehashed, flipped over, turned inside out and re-looked at again. Once ST starts, it will all change. The content to write about will be there, the stories of the feel good players fighting for spots, the promise of new days, etc. etc. Hope springs eternal.
Honestly, that’s why I think this site has become the Hatfields vs. McCoys. Nothing new to argue about, so nothing to bring resolution, so just fight on for the sake of fighting. End of the day, it gets forgotten that we are all just Mets fans.
At least with Phillips we could chat about pennant races and World Series games.
It was a great time to be a Mets fan and I know YOU and the rest probably agree.
But let’s look back and 2nd guess cuz we lost a few big games from 06-08 and then suffered historic injuries from 09-10.
Let’s look back and second guess instead of blaming nobody but the team for losing big games.
“Let’s look back and second guess instead of blaming nobody but the team for losing big games.”
You are going in circles with your self at this point.
In the end the constructed team didn’t get it done. Even if there was money, why would a older hobbled Beltran, and has-been closer KROD, and Reyes and Wright suddenly win? Isn’t five isn’t 7 years with one playoff appearance enough to demonstrate that the former plan wasn’t working and there needed to be a new direction? What you just can’t grasp is they are not allowed to go into that direction until the house is in order, even though you feel the new direction is to lose at all costs.
What you can’t grasp is that the Mets were contenders from 06-08.
What you can’t grasp is that major injuries prevented the team from contending from 09-10 and you can throw 2011 in there if you want.
What you can’t grasp is that Minaya built a contender from 06-08, injuries curtailed contention from 09-11 and while all that happened the kids down on the farm started coming up and contributing while all that was happening with more kids with potential down on the farm now.
Ultimately that is what Sandy needs to do to – build a contender and keep having good kids come up from the farm and produce.
That is what Omar Minaya already did. The only difference is that you hope Sandy’s big signings (if he ever gets to that point) dont’ get injured.
But his signings are already getting injured and he’s doing a terrible job to boot
I’m not even sure your post has anything to do with my post. Just because I mention Phillips in jest, does not a Phillips post make. It was a simple post about the state and stagnation of the Mets nation. Man o’ Man, that was almost Nipsie Russel-esque.
Per my other comments I have stated that Omar did a great job between 05-08. It’s in 09 that he needed to change course and he didn’t. Through a bunch at Castillo and Perez (I was fine with this given the market) and didn’t build depth. That’s what hurt the team. That team is done, they didn’t get the job done and couldn’t get the job done. Time to move on.
no the signings of Castillo and Perez did not hurt the team, they weren’t good moves but they did not hurt the team enough take them out of contention in 2009 and 2010. Injuries did – not those 2 signings so knock it off.
And as stated a million times, the starters, the pitching, the backups and the backups to backups got hurt in 2009 so that year is a wash because no sports franchise could ever withstand what happened to the Mets in 2009.
Stop making excuses for Sandy. Omar already had the plan in place but injuries curtailed it – the kids are coming up, contributing, and some may be stars. And there’s more kids making news and waiting in the farm and they are all Omar’s. I don’t count Wheeler yet because it’s too early.
AH so Sandy is doing a good job of following Omar’s plan…. I got it. At least we know where you are coming from.
Don’t put words in people’s mouths. I never do that but it seems all the saber and Sandy people are always doing that – putting words in people’s mouths.
The plan is to build a contender and try and build a strong farm. I’m not an expert at it and NOBODY else here is. I’m sure EVERY team wants to do that.
Omar did it. Sandy has yet to.
The only thing that prevented the bridge of contending from 09 to 11 were injuries like this team had never suffered before (I think 1987 the pitching staff suffered through incredible injuries)
And Omar’s kids were starting to come up in 09 and now look at the ones on the team now, add to that the kids in the farm and that is exactly what Omar did. Build a contender and a strong farm – relative to the Mets needs – not any league averages.
That’s an HONEST baseball assessment
Right so in summary Sandy is just following in Omar’s footsteps and continuing to build what Omar had already started?
I am really enjoy reading this site lately, people are eating you alive. Drama Queen? Own a mirror much?
Salty reminds me of you. But his message has hope and is realistic. You are nothing more than a daily kvetcher. You need new material because your stuff is static and whiney.
The hope thing may be taking it a little too far. LOL Unfortunately there is such extreme disdain regarding the direction of the team that I am sounding like the voice of reason. Normally I am the one predicting doom and gloom.
People should be more positive about the team since 2009-2010. Last years team with poor expectations played their hearts out. Though they did not contain the talent to go places that all of us want to see, it was awesome to see a team fight instead of being afraid to lose again. There is going to be one more year of crap and then those financial unknowns will be revealed and a stronger course can be taken. Trust me, if this team doesn’t have it’s house in order and begin investments starting next year with a build up through the next few years, I will personally buy a house and pitch fork for Bayonne and 1 and together we will storm the castle and take down those SOB’s.
And you wonder why you get labeled a Cheerleader?
ROFLMAO!
Back to the discussion on the Nats.
Fear them as winners of the NL East this year? Not yet IMO. Of course things could break right for them and they could….
Fear them in the future? Yeah. That’s what stinking for a long time and then suddenly investing a ton of money when you have those #1 prospects ready will do for you. I still think they made a huge mistake not ponying up the money for Fielder and if they had not lost on the deal with Werth they could have. They should be getting really good about the time the Phillies get really old and have to start the process over again and when the Marlins have already traded everything they signed this year…. So in 2014-2015 the Nats really could be a force.
Kind of cements us in the BASEMENT as I thought the only team we might have had a small chance against was the NATS!
Lots of hype on the fish and the team only won 70 games last year. They can easily come into last place. If Johnson isn’t healthy, and Bell gets fat again, how many more wins will Reyes and Buehrle really net them?
As TRS can attest I been talking about the recognition of the Nats as a team to not look past for a few years now. The Strasburg injury was a definite setback but if that kid can get back to where he was before his injury it will be scary to watch what he could do over an entire season. As many have previously said the most questionable move has been the Werth signing. I like how they continue to resign Wang in hopes it will eventually pay off but Wang’s 2007 is now far away and another setback by Wang you have to question if it is time to just cut bait and finally move on.
The Mets are not winning anything any time soon. The best hope is to get the best picks possible since we are going to be bottom feeders for a while. Another year, another GM and a continuation of jumping head first into the garbage pile looking for salvageable players. yummmy.
“…we need to start seriously considering them as legitimate contenders to not only have a good season, but to potentially win the NL East or at minimum steal a wild card berth.”
Sounds like someone got to the party late. They probably won’t win the division, but, they have been playoff contenders since Strasburg has been deemed healthy and they picked up Gio Gonzalez from Oakland. Adding Jackson makes them even more viable. I think the NL East could have 3 playoff teams with the new playoff scheme this year. Get ready…The Mets will be in last place through the 2014 season.
too many variables to make real predictions about the LT future, let alone the coming season. especailly when dealing with “on paper”.
And as always, injuries are the biggest wild card.
The nats are one of those teams that could be considered on the divide, and depending on how a few key guys work out, could jump forward this year, or just as easily regress or just stay flat.
The Phils are probable the best example of a team where a couple of big injuries to the wrong couple of guys can make a huge impact on their season.. If 2/3 of Hamels/Halladay/Lee get laid up (and hell, pitchers do get hurt on most teams!) then reality can bite them hard.
not fully fleshed out or quantified, but I have a working theory that predictions should include a +/- factor of 10.
meaning do all your figuring, and come up with an expected win total, then figure that the plausible range (without getting into true miracle or disaster territory) is 10 up or down.
Every team of course has a different mid point, but this does get you to the overlap whre teams can pass other “better” teams.
so pin the mets at 78, and the range is 68-88. Say the Phils are 92, that gives them 82-102.
so yes, there are scenarios where the Mets (or the Nats, or the …) can finish ahead of the Phils.
it will just take a statistician to draw the bell curves and do the standard deviation analysis to come up with the probabilities!
Yeah I am right there with you I would say however 75 or 76 but that’s about the same.
I said 73 last year. Probably have to go lower now…
Bayonne, guys, what is your prediction for the superbowl? who you guys got?
G-Men 27, Pats 16
Salty?? are you a giants fans?? 16 points the patriots?? that’s bold..
I’m a huge Giants fan. In all honesty I am pretty worried about the game (but not as much as I was with SF). Lots of media on the Giants side and they seem to be talking a little too much. People should never underestimate Belichek and Brady. In the end I think both defenses are going to play well, and the Giants have a better chance to make that “big play”.
Maybe we should all lighten up and just Salsa!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-h4sIh6LYIE
Well, after all this is new york.. i have it
PATRIOTS 35
Giants 24
Alex, I hear a lot of talk about this game meaning a lot to Belichick to avenge so to speak his last SB loss but at the end of the day I think this Giants team is simply better than the Pats and they will win 31-27 in what should be a Great game.
I think, before I head out to coach some basketball, that ultimately my issue is that I don’t believe that Sandy has been given the time or the resources to judge his product yet. I don’t know he has done a great job or a poor job… more information and time is needed. Thus just as I did with Omar I will give him the benefit of the doubt but in a couple of years if we are still stuck I will be right with the extremist storming the Bastille.
The Nats look very tough on paper. They’re a legitimate playoff contender and could win the Division. The Phillies rotation’s top 3 but 2 are mid-30s. Looks to me like the Nats are better ‘on paper’ than both the Marlins and the Braves. i think the Nats have snuck up on the Division. And it looks like a very difficult Division.
It’s amazing how far Washington has come (at least on paper) from just the season before last when they managed to win all of 69 games. But they have accomplished this improvement not solely on re-building but on trades (at least one being for a pitcher eligible for arbitration) and free agent signings.
That’s the only way we can really expect to rebuild what has been dismantled – a good farm system with players coming supplemented on trades (including at least with arbitration coming up) and free agent signings – not just rebuilding from within. With the payroll still projected to be cut over the next two or three years, such a combination is unlikely and so are our chances to leap from past the Nats.
What free agent signings? Werth?
Werth could have a bounce back year. Lidge could also bolster the bullpen while I also think Wang could be a sleeper with that pitching staff.
Not saying they will, of course. Obviously this is a trio of “ifs” and might fare no better than most of the free agents they signed the past year or so (Kapps, Kennedy, Marquise, Batista, etc. who are now all playing for different teams).
And what did they give in those trades? Prospects. they built a deep farm system and have 2 legit generational talents that are going to contribute for years. Jim Bowden started building them up in 2007 and Mike Rizzo has been carrying it on (even if he’s made a spectacle of himself doing it). In fact, Rizzo’s one big signing, Jayson Werth, seems to be the biggest mistake they’ve made the last few years.
It will be very fitting if, in the 50 anniversary year of the Mets, our team becomes the new perennial cellar dweller and the Nats, the traditional one, take the 1st place prize. Teams can actually be rebuilt, if you actually try to do that instead of sitting on your hands and drawing a huge salary for doing nothing.