Could be. I’m not sure. Like I said, I’m not a big sabremetrics guy. I just don’t discount it out of hand, and would rather have access to the data than not.

I tried to use a random example to make my point of how a seemingly irrelevant fact (to some people) can provide insight beyond simple stats. If ROE is broken down separately, that’s even better. I wouldn’t have to work the backward calculation.

I play amateur baseball and manage a couple of teams as well. I always have guys lobbying for positions in the order based on BA. But I can see the guys who hit the ball hard and make outs and those that get cheap hits. I can place a value on both based on their other tendencies. I can look at my books and see the guys that reached base because of hustle, but it didn’t translate into their line. I can see the guys who stayed out of double plays, and the guys that forced errors by getting good jumps on the bases.

You can’t get this information on MLB players unless you’re watching every play of every game and recording it somehow. If others want to record spray charts, base advances and the like, GREAT.. If there’s an equation that attempts to quantify the minutiae, even if flawed, I want to have it. That’s really all I’m saying.

The guy that wrote the article I originally linked to used WAR calculations to show that this team is NOT as weak as it may initially appear. That’s what got all this started. I understand how some find WAR to be flawed, I don’t argue one way or another. But the overall point was that there is real possibility for this team to surprise some people, and the point had to be made in an evidentiary fashion. WAR serves the purpose. Does it mean he’s right? Of course not. But if he simply said the Mets can win because “I feel it in my bones”, he’d be a complete hack, wouldn’t he?

That’s how I got drawn into this thing. I just linked to something I found to be interesting reading, and watched the board devolve into the mess it is now. LOL

Metsie’s more comfortable with BA that’s cool. I prefer both, like James said it’s very illustrating to see what is behind the difference between the two. Tells you a lot of things imo. Room for improvement? Players maxed out his ability? Hitting in an incorrect spot in the order? Needs a platoon mate? All kinds of stuff.

But to each their own.

When you boil it all down he’s been a better defender than lots of guys with better reps.

I’m misguided because I question some stats!

And your NOT misuided for saying BA is useless compared to OBP!

You are THEY!

Couldn’t agree more about fantasy football, and baseball either for that matter. What a joke. I actually had 3 guys on one of my teams beg out of an important game because of their fantasy football draft. Boneheads.

Are you sure that RB/OE helps OB? I don’t believe it does. Errors count as outs for both BA and OB as I understand it. Other than catchers interference and HBP it’s pretty much just walks, isn’t it?

Don’t know how the insults started but since day one, Donal has been courteous to me, even if he thinks I’m missing the point and vice versa.

Hope this doesn’t mean I’m setting myself in for a deluge of put downs now!

Just the few that seem to be based or constructed with a bias such as WAR wOBA (Hell even Saber folks dispute these two)

Again, I don’t like basing player valuations on sabremetrics alone. I think the practice has become common because of the popularity of fantasy leagues. It’s not just baseball by the way. It’s destroyed football in my opinion.

However, there is definitely value in perusing a player’s metrics to get a feel for who they are. For example, a players UZR and the related defensive metrics can bring a deficiency to light that would otherwise go unnoticed. On the flip side, it doesn’t account for the player being out of position, possibly due to utilization of a higher baseball IQ, and positioning himself according to other defensive weaknesses around him, the pitcher on the mound, the runners on base, and many, many other variables. Derek Jeter is a prime example of someone who gets destroyed by metrics, but proves himself on the field. However, this doesn’t disqualify the UZR rating altogether.

But advanced stats can and will show certain other tendencies. It’s all in how you translate it. As in your example, If I see a .250 batter with a .350 OBA, the next thing I want to see is walks. If his walk total is through the roof, I can surmise that he has an excellent eye. It doesn’t make him a better hitter, it just brings another factor to light. One that is incredibly important to his ability to help a team win. If his walk total is average or below and his ROE is high….now it really gets interesting. This tells me the guy is likely to be a hustler. You don’t reach base on error at a high rate unless your putting pressure on the defense by getting your ass down the line in a hurry. This is an example of how an advanced stat enhances the ability to better judge a player’s tendencies without having watched every at bat.

How many times have you posted here?
How often have you read what gets said around here?

It would seem like you just got here either because Xtreeme Invited you or you just stumbled on the site because it caused some stir on some other site…

In either case Xtreeme is THEY, THEY being MISUSING Stats, Disparaging anyone who still use traditionals and anyone who might question any Metric such as WAR for the construct of it’s metric!

THEY, THEM THOSE are the majority of people who spout a stat (Metric) have no IDEA what is in it, how it is derived and how what is in it gives or misleads the story they are trying to tell!

And when you point out the weakness of a metric or how some other metric actually is better..

THEY, will say it’s the new SCIENCE and your crazy!

They look up stats have no clue how to MAKE that stat and then come off like they have some inteligence where none truly exists! Kids acting smart because they copied the answer off a test someone else took!
Sure they have the answer but don’t really know what the answer means or how to get to the answer Just spout it and if god forbid anyone questions that they are then attacked!

Believe me I didn’t make this a conflict of the proper use of stats or how good stats are at prediction, I know full well they are nice little conversation pieces that have nothing to do with results!
And I know some Metrics are Useful while others are not!

I use some sabers for comparison and ignore the ones I know are not worth the paper they are written on!

Yet when a discussion about someone happens here some guy who is ALL SABER, ALL THE TIME will spout some Saber metric that has nothing to do with the comparison he is trying to make or use some metric that is as badly constructed as any metric can be because it’s values fail to follow any logic.
And when someone confronts that THEY attempt to call the use of that metric a SCIENCE and those who doubt it crazy!

I know science and Metrics aren’t it!
They COULD be part of a science and various metrics could then be put together in a way to come out with some sort of central truth or prediction.

When all the laws of Physics are sorted out and a Theory of Everything exists maybe then we won’t have bad Metrics posted for these Script kiddies to use because any calculatioon will have a model of mathematics that it has to fit into and prove or not fit into and can be discarded!

But if sabremetrics is used for probability, then why do so many use those stats to argue who the better player (i.e., the recent article about Gary Carter being better than Bench, Berra or Campy because he had the higher WAR)?

And as you know, I believe formulas and curves have their proper places in projecting the outcomes in physics and the sciences but not when it comes to human achievement. As an example, take into account what Bill James projected 2010 would be for Jason Bay had he played a full season:

153 games, 32 home runs, .268 batting average. Won’t get into his advanced statistics.

I had a friendly disagreement with my friends when I said I didn’t expect Bay to hit even 15. I cited the change from Fenway to Citi Field, the fact that he would be pitched differently so he couldn’t pull the ball down the line as many noted and, most importantly, that the park had already messed up bonafide power hitters like David Wright and Carlos Beltran.

Another projection of James that I disagreed with was the curve that he used to predict Lastings Miledge would develop into a good major league player. Right away it was obvious that Lastings had an attitude problem which got in his way from listening and learning – he was going to do things his way no matter what. Well, Lastings is now getting ready to play in the very conformist society that is Japan. He was dumped by four major league teams in six years.

Not to mention feeling the major free agent signings made by Sandy last winter would be busts due to health issues, getting on in age, talent or a combination of all three – yet I still remember my cohorts, who were also ardent supporters of money ball, lauding Sandy for shoring up both the starting rotation and bullpen with pitchers they were certain were under-valued and overlooked by other general managers.

I projected all this by myself based on instinct, a knowledge of the game and an understanding of human nature – not any sabrametric formula. Of course, I’ve made some big blunders in my own right, including that the Mets gave up on John Maine too soon (I’m still not hearing the end of that from some of them LOL).

It doesn’t just apply to baseball. Remember two years back the consumer electronics industry was predicting 3D was the next big item in home electronics. This wasn’t just advertising hype – they cited scientific analysis based of precise opinion poles as proof this was going to occur. On the other hand, with 70 percent of all American households having already owned a HD monitor, I simply asked why would they think so many of them were going to discard what they just recently had spent a lot of money on and again buy another monitor just for 3d? I also professed there was something not right with those industry-conducted studies due to the economy and the studies conducted by independent sources showing not only the opposite but also a declining interest in television viewing in general.

Of course, my gut instincts were right. As anyone in marketing can attest to, opinion poles can be geared toward producing the result one wants to achieve (sounds like the sabremetrics argument, doesn’t it?). And most people had more important things to do with their money than to go out and buy another television set so soon.

There is too much in the human equation that computer analysis can’t take into account.

Ciao

But now my head hurts.

I’m not trying to pick a fight here, but you spend an awful lot of time referring to “they”, “them” and “Sabers”. You write about people trying to “prove” things and “replace” things.

Honestly, it appears almost like you’re fighting some battle against imaginary invaders of some sort.

I’m not going pick apart what you’re saying here, as most of it is valid, and I have no beef with you.

However, consider the possibilty that your adamant refusal to accept anything sabre-based as having any legitimacy at all is based on something deeper. What? I don’t know. I don’t know you and am not a psychologist.

But seriously, if you step back and just look at this page from top to bottom, it is dominated by you desperately trying to discredit sabremetrics to anyone unfortunate enough to have posted. It’s a type of bullying really.

I’m not trying to attack you. Just asking that you step back and look at what you’re doing objectively.

While we’re on the subject of advanced stats and it’s accuracy, why didn’t you use Citi Field for your chart at the beginning of this article? That’s going to throw all the sabers off of their projections.