Feb
22
2012
22
2012
Two Schools Of Thought On the 2012 Mets: Part Two
An article by 
THE OPTI-METS:
Continuing with the two schools of thought, we move to the lighter side of things; the opti-mets. This crowd must be gellin’ with Dr. Scholl’s insoles or something, because to remain completely optimistic about the 2012 Mets after the past five year is saying something. Except for our Optimistic Mets Fan, there aren’t a whole lot of these guys left around. But for those of them who remain, this is how an opti-mets views next year’s squad in a nutshell:
- Starting Pitching: The starting pitching has potential that has yet to be recognized to this point. Santana appears to be moving in the right direction towards returning to rotation, hopefully somewhere near the level he was prior to the torn shoulder capsule. Niese and Gee experienced some growing pains in the second half but that doesn’t take away from how talented they are or their potential as young pitchers with high ceilings. Pelfrey makes it hard to be optimistic but hopefully he can find his sinker again and perform like he did in most of 2010. As for Dickey, until Santana returns, he is the rock of this rotation. Throwing off hitters with that dancing knuckleball, the guy is a gem that the Mets should hold onto for years to come.
- Bullpen: In the most significant addition of the winter, Sandy Alderson completely re-vamped the bullpen for the better. Adding Francisco, Rauch and Ramirez to a previously thin ‘pen brings a much less stressful 7th inning on for Terry Collins as well as the Mets fan base. Francisco has had an ERA under 4 for the past four years running, Rauch, with exception to 2011 in which he played injured, has been a consistent and reliable arm for his entire career; and as for Ramirez, the guy could very well become one of the best set-up men the Mets have had in a long time. For a team that may go through some ebbs and flows, this bullpen is shaping up to be one of the more stable aspects of the 2012 Mets.
- Offense: Despite losing Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran, this offense is loaded with potential. With young stars waiting to break out coupled with veterans on the rebound, this Amazin’ offense could be a force to be reckoned with in the National League.
- Josh Thole: For a catcher, Thole is above average when stepping up to the plate. Behind it however, Thole has gotten a bad rep, partially due to his catching R.A. Dickey and unfortunate April of 2010. The fact is he isn’t a great catcher, but Thole is better than most think.
- Ike Davis: I think it’s a general consensus among the fanbase that Ike Davis is the future of the Mets and is primed for a breakout year in 2012. With the Adam Dunn power, Mark Teixeira defense and the capability to hit .300; Davis is destined for big things in Flushing.
- Daniel Murphy: Murphy can flat out hit. He would have been among the league leaders in batting average had he not gotten injured in 2011. His openness to trying a variety of positions has allowed him to stay on this club despite the corner infield spots obviously filled. It will have to be an adjustment period for Murph, but with some practice, he can succeed at second base.
- David Wright: Despite some ups and downs the past few years, David Wright is still David Wright. He is still the guy who hit .300, 25 and 100 for four years straight from 2005-2008. He is still smack-dab in the middle of his prime, so before everyone has cast him off as a has-been, they might want to wait and see.
- Ruben Tejada: There is so much pressure on Tejada to lessen the blow of losing Jose Reyes that anything short of an MVP-caliber season would be seen as “not good enough” for the fans. He is not Jose Reyes. Tejada has extraordinary defensive skills and a good contact swing. He works the count and doesn’t waste an at-bat. If he is over matched, he will make that pitcher work for the out, taking 6,7,8 pitches to do it. He may not be Reyes-good, but he is still a solid shortstop with quite a bit of potential yet to be recognized.
- Jason Bay: September of 2011 was a sign that Jason Bay could be back. He managed a .313/.392/.563 line with 3 home runs, 13 RBIs and 7 doubles. That’s a .954 OPS! Bay stated that he just decided to drop all of the minute tweaks to his swing and just hit, and that paid dividends in September. If he can keep that up in 2012, the Mets may finally get a return on that 4-year $66 million dollar contract.
- Andres Torres: If Torres can perform to the level of anywhere his 2010 campaign, he’ll be an exceptional leadoff hitter for the Mets in 2012. He gets on base, has good speed, outstanding defense and above all has a baseball IQ higher than any ten ballplayers you could shake a stick at. So long as he gets over whatever funk he was in in 2011, this would be an excellent pick up by GM Sandy Alderson.
- Lucas Duda: As shown in his 2011 performance, Lucas Duda –like Ike Davis– is primed to break into stardom in 2012. in 300 at-bats, roughly half a season, Duda batted .292 with 10 homers and 50 RBIs. Put that over a full year, and you have a major force in any lineup, not just one in need of production. I cannot wait to see this guy playing as a full-time starter, he is a star in the making.
After reading this and the first school of thought I posted last week, think about which category you tend to fall under.
About the Author: Clayton Collier
Clayton, a Long Island native and die-hard Mets fan, started writing online about three years ago. He is currently a Journalism major with a minor in Broadcasting at Seton Hall University. Although very disappointed with the current state of the team, Clayton remains hopeful that the young prospects in the farm system will bring the Mets back to a respected franchise in baseball once again. Besides writing for MMO, Clayton is also a staff member at 89.5 WSOU, Seton Hall's modern active rock radio station. You can contact Clayton by following him on Twitter: @Clayton_Collier or E-mailing him at MaybeNextYearMets@yahoo.com
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I’m with you on Thole. He had a rough 2011 but if he makes that a learning experience and finds most of the form he had in 2010, 2012 might be pretty good for the Mets behind the plate.
From your mouth to the Good Lord’s ears…
It’s ST and a fresh start. Even though realistically I realize why this team is predicted to finish dead last in the NL east – and won’t be surprised if they do – I’ll not fully believe it until we’re walling in the cellar come the dog days of summer.
LGM!
Weakest link IMO is SP. Most would agree right now.
I noticed you didn’t mention defense. I consider that the 2nd weakest link. SA himself said he expects this team to hit but he just hopes some of the changes made for offensive bats in the lineup weren’t made as the expect of defense. –He didn’t mention names but I can only assume he’s talking about Murphy and Duda.
What changes did he make with offensive bats? I thought the only hitter we got was Torres who is supposed be a great glove? Plus everyone keeps saying Tejada is a better glove than Reyes was, and Ike Davis was awesome at 1B. I think Sandy was confused, lol.
I believe he meant committing to Duda being the starting RF and Murphy being the starting 2nd baseman – instead of looking around for a more ‘complete’ type player who brought a little more defense to the table
Just listened to a short interview with Murphy on DNL on SNY.
When they asked him about TC’s confidence in this team winning ball games and not necessarily being as bad as some are predicting Murph says – ‘With the additional wild card, looking around the league last year…looks like 88 games will get you a ticket to the dance so’….
You go, Murph. He thinks they can win 88 games.
very fair to both sides Clayton! Well Done!
Thanks Metsie! Appreciate it.
Not sure how you feel but I’d say I’m middle ground on everything except i’m pessimistic on Thole and Pelfrey and optimistic about Ike, Duda and Niese.
I’m pessimistic that will we be anywhere near the division and playoff race, I’m optimistic on the kids (which is why I was pessimistic about the purge of vets) and I’m still pessimistic that attendance will be enough to stop them from trading Wright! I’m optimistic that Kirk will come up and play CF but pessimistic that he will do enough his first year to secure that spot next year and stay healthy. I’m optimistic about Duda’s bat and pessimistic that he might very well give up all the runs he gets us at the plate with his glove! I’m optimistic that Davis will hit but I’m still not sure (Call it Middle) on what that Ankle is going to do!
I’m Optimistic that Havens could come up to play 2nd but pessimistic as to what that means for Murphy’s bat if my fears on Wright aren’t realized.
BUT if that happens I’m optimistic that we will FINALLY find a place for Murphy to play which makes Starting pitching and the OF the target for next year one of which I am optimistic we might fill with some kids and the other pessimistic that a solution will be made before next season is done!
Where the hell does that put me?
LOL
Hmmm…. Independ-Met? Lol, let’s file you under middle ground
OK, blow the dust off my Opti-Goggles and throw them of and be a little delusional for a second. Please don’t respond by tearing it apart…we all know the reality of the situation.
-Our rotation does have five guys with 15 win potential.
-Our pen is deep and has a ton of hard throwers
-Thole is better behind the plate that what his reputation is…RAD caused him problems, but he’ll be better this year.
-Ike is the man and will be our rock at first for a long time.
-Murph is a hitter and with some experience and steady work at one position, he could develop into a serviceable MLB 2nd baseman.
-Tejeda is solid in the field and despite is lack of power, he does drive the ball to all fields pretty well.
-Torres is solid fielder and could have a very solid season at the plate.
-Moving the fences in will do wonders for Bay and Wright. It will correct their mental block at the plate and we’ll see numbers similar to past seasons.
-Duda is the man. I’ve seen him a few times in AAA and he’s just a beast, he hit a HR in every game I saw him play. I saw him hit a line drive off the top of the wall in dead center that never went more than 12 feet off the ground. The CF’er only had a chance to turn around before the ball was over his head. I don’t think we’ve seen the true Duda yet. While he’ll never be a star in the field, he didn’t look completely lost chasing down balls in right.
If things work out right, the O could put up a lot of runs and the rotation could win 75 games and with the extra WC, we could see a 85-90 win season with a play run.
OK…stop laughing…it could happen…now who want’s a hit of what I’m smoking?
No need for a hit. I can see it too. For real. Not going to bet the mortgage on it, but the potential is there.
i’m with you USMF and with you, any. It’s very possible. i think the lineup is much better than all the negative pundits and many of the fans think. i share concerns sute, particularly the pitching, but even there, it is ‘possible’ we get rebound years (for different reasons) from Johan and Pelfrey; and i expect Niese to put it together this year and for RA to continue to be steady.Gee is a big Q-mark and beyond him, there’s who? But you just never know.
Again, this lineup will be much more potent than most think! (All digits crossed!)
I can’t help but hope for the best and dream for another impossible dream, however, with ownership being what it is, I can see a resussetated Wright, Bay and/or Santana gone by mid-season since Sandy Alderson stated the decision to retain David would be independent of the club’s performance. That is just like last season when we were only five out in the loss column for the wild card – the decision to send Beltran and KRod packing was also independent from the club’s performance.
Know I’m repeating myself but the fact remains with a young team no front office makes such moves that close and far into the season. It’s not about actually winning this year as it is having them gain valuable experience, maturity and confidence in themselves so the team can develop into a real contender in the years to come. Nurturing the young players already on the parent club is as important a step in “re-building” as is developing prospects on the minor league level – and that was one step Sandy didn’t take.
So even if the front office concluded (like so many in MMO did) that the team was playing over it’s head and wouldn’t have the talent to continue, the one message a front office does not want to send to a developing team is “you’re not that good yet so let’s get something in return for the vets and forget about this year”. That’s why getting rid of KRod and Beltran was not in the best interests of rebuilding or helping the youngsters get a feeling of what it meant to be playing on a winning ball club. Stopping them in their own tracks, no matter how badly they might have faltered, took away so much of the positive momentum the young kids could have otherwise carried into the 2012 season and beyond was not worth the obtaining of a Zach Wheeler. Rather it was an indication that the Wilpons would sacrifice even the future in order to retain their hold on the club.
All the players, both young and old, along with their manager, know that if they are close again this July the rug will most likely be pulled out from under them as before. That’s why my extreme hope in the players is offset by my extreme pessimism of the owners.
Balancing the present vs. the past is something the Wilpon’s have been very poor at through the years. Their pendulum has always been tilted way too much toward the present in an almost reckless fashion. I for one applaud the FO for looking beyond just this year for probably the first time in two decades.
Regardless of lawsuits and ponzi schemes this would have had to be done at some point. You really can’t expect to win with four first basemen in your starting eight and a couple of guys well past their shelf life.
Even the NYY had to take the time to get their house in order back in the early 90′s after eight years of trying to patch the boat with whoever was available and failing to even reach the playoffs even with the Majors largest payroll. After Gene Michael took over it was another 5 years before they played baseball in October. Our farm is in no way ravaged the way the NYY was when he arrived.
The experience our young players should have been receiving is learning how to play their positions, in the minors, not the Majors. Pelfrey came up in 2006, Murphy and Parnell in 2008, Niese and Thole in 2009 and Duda in 2010 and they are all still learning on the job.
Hi T,
Don’t underestimate the value of a positive season for young players coming together as a team if the goal of the franchise is rebuilding from scratch. Minor league experience goes only so far. The level of competition changes drastically when they stop playing against young minor leaguers and go up against seasoned major leaguers. It takes time to grow from making inexperienced rookie mistakes into slowly maturing as a genuine major leaguer. The same holds true for a young team as well. It might not work out that positive building blocks one year becomes the foundation for success in each of the following but for young teams, that is the only way to go.
If Beltran and KRod helped the young kids to manage an 84-78 last year it would have meant going 79-64 after that horrible start and we all would be having much more hope than we are at this stage. No way we would be thinking last place, even if other clubs in the division improved themselves. Alderson replaced KRod with three other relievers this winter; Duda is the replacement for Beltran in right. Our additions would be the return of Johann Santana and Ike Davis, a full season of David Wright…. and virtually a new ballpark that won’t choke our hitters. With Reyes gone, though we might not have a dynamic replacement at short, we still have one who could play day in and day out instead of being absent for 30 or so games. Gee and Neise have another year of experience under their belts as well.
So why, with all the above going for us, is there the feeling that we’re going down and not up? It’s because after those two left we then saw in those kids a bunch of youngsters pressing, feeling over-matched, looking totally bewildered and giving up because they did not have someone who could close a game for them or count on to get the big hit It was nothing like what we saw from them the three months before when they were brimming with confidence and playing with spark.
Salary dumping hurt the youngsters who could have otherwise put together a credible season when nothing was expected of them at all, especially after the injuries to Davis and Wright (nobody could have anticipated the injuries that later befell Neise and Murphy). At the end of the season Terry Collins said he didn’t want the last two months to undermine all that the youngsters had accomplished prior to that time. That sounds like a manager who knows the value of having a good season to jump start the next.
So again, don’t underestimate the value of having a positive season even if it is only a small step.
Don’t disagree with your points Joey in fact during bad seasons I’ve always told my teammates that we have to fight together before we can win together but K-Rod and Carlos weren’t going to be on the team when we were at a competitive strength level and quite frankly they’re not the only ones. Even guys who are on the team will most likely be counted on for smaller roles. In addition there comes a time when you have to take the training wheels off and let the younger guys seize the leadership roles.
The good that could have come from playing meaningful games in September in 2011 is far and away outweighed by the good that could come from having Wheeler develop into even a #4 SP for 6-10 years and that did allow Duda to come up here, get confidence at the plate and start the process of learning how to be a RFer.
K-Rod being traded when we were 1 game over over .500 was almost a foregone conclusion for non baseball reasons but still allowed for the chance of Parnell and Acosta to step forward, or not. Having a half season to see for himself those two in that role is in and of itself very worthwhile and being able to do so when we weren’t really in a pennant race is a far better situation than when we are.
Neither K-Rod nor Carlos were going to be part of a winning Met team going forward but Duda and Wheeler absolutely could. Duda proved something to himself and will be 100% more confident out there in 2012 and Wheeler could be one of the most difficult pieces for a baseball team to acquire, one that we wouldn’t have if not for the trade.
I think this team will surprise quite a few people.
Check this for an in depth look at why the Mets can even make the playoffs.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1074147-mlb-predictions-why-the-2012-mets-will-make-a-run-at-the-playoffs
I wish the author spoke English instead of calculus. Clayton did a wonderful job touching upon the same enthusiasm appearing in bleacher report via an in-depth analysis of one’s strength, weaknesses and maturity instead of a series of mathematical equations. Tell me if Jason Bay is getting under the ball better than he has the past two seasons than his WAR, any day.
that post was a horror. He also said Jose Reyes was 30 years old and that the team was “exorcised” of him.
Bleacher Report is an outlet for fans to write posts so you take it from where it comes.
I think he listed the WAR for everybody but barely gave any stats so if you want to know something about these players individually you’re not gonna learn anything reading that uneducated post. There is not one original thought in that post it’s all based on moneyball and that’s was his basis of resource.
His take on catcher was there were no changes up or down. Nevermind the fact that you do the best you can to sure up your battery. And according to this guy the Andres Torres trade should be among the best deals for any team in the offseason and is based solely on sabermetrics.
I can’t go on writing..gotta go puke – this article had NOTHING to do with trying to put together a team that can compete and win
That break wasn’t long enough
My girlfriends 13-year old son writes for Bleacher Report. I think it’s an outlet for kids or teens who may not have the skills to write for some of the major Mets sites like this one. Every now and the a you do come across something surprisingly good, but nobody takes them too seriously.
I try to be diplomatic when commenting on sabremetrics and money ball. This is how baseball is talked by certain intellectuals accomplished in scientific or technical pursuits totally engrossed in pursuing infinite details who, perhaps due to ego, are unable to know when it’s time to relax and let their hair down. That’s why for many of us, we would rather hear from Bob Costas and others.
Talk to me about how valauble a catcher who hits maybe .250 with maybe ten home runs but calls a great game, knows how to settle down young pitchers, keeps balls in the dirt in front of him, knows how to block the plate and can throw out base runners instead of his WAR.
Let Ralph Kiner tell me what’s wrong with Jason Bay’s technics than explaining it to me in terms of x, y and z.
Sabremetrics can be fun but not to be taken too seriously – that is the problem.
You do understand Ralph Kiner has spoken favorably of things like OPS, right?
And that David Cone also encourages the use of advanced statistics?
This idea that it is some abstract only used in coffee houses by people who have nothing to do with the game is a total fallacy meant to discredit it by people who not only refuse to use them (their right) but crusade to against them (which is where the trouble is).
So, like the automobile, vaccines, television and rock-n-roll, advanced stats are here, in wide use, and effective.
You do understand that Kiner didn’t like WAR, right? And that’s what Joey D said he had a problem with, not OPS.
No, Joey D takes this stance against advanced stats in general. Look at the first sentence of his post.
I don’t buy into WAR myself for several reason. But none of those reasons are because of some pretentious us vs them mentality.
you have very right not to be interested in advanced stats. No one is forcing anyone to learn them or discuss them. If it isn’t your cup of tea, then feel free not joining the discussion.
But when you insult the people who do embrace advanced stats with lies and fallacies, no matter how flowery your language, don’t pretend to have some sort of moral high ground or act all injured when you get an unfavorable response.
Actually, my first sentence was:
“I try to be diplomatic when commenting on sabremetrics and money ball.” LOL.
I followed it up with “This is how baseball is talked by certain intellectuals accomplished in scientific or technical pursuits totally engrossed in pursuing infinite details who, perhaps due to ego, are unable to know when it’s time to relax and let their hair down. That’s why for many of us, we would rather hear from Bob Costas and others.”
I said “certain”, not all, in order to point out that in many a discussion there are those who do not lighten up a bit and let their hair down, sticking entirely to their statistical evaluations and coming across as intellectual egotists. That does not apply to you, Donal my friend, or any others who embrace sabremetrics, it’s about those who are so rigid in their ways as not to even have a good natured back and forth debate like you, I and others are doing. They are not alone – acting as hybrows many of my traditionlist friends and, I’m sorry to say, all of us are guilty of from time to time.
But there is a difference between collecting data for purposes David Cone expresses (and Davey Johnson introduced in the dugout) and analyzing a player and a team with these advanced stats. Most of us “traditionlists” never really used stats to back our arguments – we used antedotial material and our knowledge of the game and it’s fundamentals – just like Ralph usually does.
.
Excuse me! But the ones who usually sling the insults are the ones who believe in these Sabers and insult the guys who don’t buy ALL of them as antiquated, out of touch and uninformed!
Yes teams use some Sabermetrics to make decisions!
Do all of them win the WS?
Why Not?
Is it because it is not a SCIENCE and does not always come up with the right Answer?
I just made a long post on the issues of WAR and wOBA!
I surely expect you and Xtreeme to start the insults flying before I have even finished my lunch!
Cause you always do when it comes time to debate Sabers!
Are you telling em you and Bayonne and alex and Maniac are big saber fans?
There should be a sabermetric study commissioned to deal with insults.
Greater weight would be assigned to the first one, lesser for the next one more for escalating one’s and so forth. Then we would need to assign a very high weight for the vilest of them.
Obviously with out having commissioned this examination it would be impossible to say which group normally starts it but Metsie’s opinion doesn’t pass the smell test with me. Not by a long shot and Metise cannot even remotely be considered an impartial party.
Or we could just display respect for ourselves by respecting other peoples opinions and simply after examining the pro’s and cons of the argument, agree or agree to disagree.
What’s the big deal?
Exhibit A in your new Study!
Donal February 22, 2012 at 12:29 pm .
Let me summarize: Misrepresentations, fallacies, obfuscation, unfounded assumptions, and far more bluster than knowledge.
Reply
Metsie February 22, 2012 at 12:39 pm .
See as I pedicted….INSULTS!
Apparently Joey it went over Donals head as well! LOL
Not really hard to do that though, just speak!
Now Tag go look at the post I made and tell me where I insults Donal!
Then please tell me why I should not respond or why you will later blame me for starting it?
It should be noted we have a VERY clean and positive discussion regarding BA’s list didn’t we?
Even Gary was stellar during it!
What was the difference?
Donal stayed out of it!
Didn’t say a word!
Is it really an insult when it is true? Your whole bloated post is you just repeating the same disproved nuggets over and over. In fact, the only you got right was “garbage in= garbage out”. I don’t think anyone could summarize your work more accurately.
I am always stellar, I am the definition of stellar. I only resort to foolishness when others do.
Waiting for someone to interject on Donals response, Any takers or should I just go ahead and do what you all claim you don’t want?
Gary I will take that as true because you at least showed me you CAN! LOL
Much more than I can give Donal credit for!
He hasn’t made an insightful post in all the time I have been posting here!
The only thing you have proven Donal is your lack of intelligence and when you can’t argue against something someone said intelligently you run to the Insult macro!
I don’t get paid to go around calling out all of your BS. Especially when it is the same disproved BS over and over. It gets boring.
I know you and some other mooks thrive off my attention, but some days, you have to make yourselves worth it.
You don’t get PAID at all! No one would even hire you for minimum wage work with your people skills!
OK I will read this long ars thread and make a impartial judgment against Donal.
Tag? Des care to interject or should I simply UNLOAD on him?
Note once I do any plea from you to get me to stop will be soundly ignored!
I’ll give you some time while I find other things to do than slap children for misbehaving!
Wow, go back to failing at math and logic. At least that was more funny and less depressing. your attempts at insult and humor make me weep for the future.
Thank you Gary!
I will refrain from saying anything further to him then!
Will wait till the intelligent postrs have something to really talk about instead!
First off I would like to bet in the under on if Metsie will ever refer to me as “Intelligent” again.
I think there is too much history of personal attacks on both sides to ever have a discussion without it veering off to where it doesn’t need to be. You folks need a “beer summit”.
As per picking a side I am kind of between you two and I feel there needs to be balance. Scouting and statistics can both be used to make a proper judgment. For things like WAR I do understand it, even read a book by Rob Neyer where he used it a lot, but I never use it for a argument. There are too many people that are not into it, and it causes more problems than it’s worth.
A advanced stat shouldn’t also be used by people to suggest if you are not on board than you are not smart enough. And on the flip side people should not be ignorant to these statistics there is a value to them. Just because you might not understand or haven’t had the time to investigate them (I probably don’t understand or know half of them) it doesn’t mean they are garbage.
I don’t think this reply was any help to anyone.
Any post advocating a beer summit could never be dismissed as not being useful.
Beer Summits are Good provided there is enough Baccardi to go around! LOL
See Gary there is another INTELLIGENT suggestion! LOL You lost your bet!
Look I understand people getting heated it’s not those guys that bother me the most!
Xtreeme and jessup at least TRY before they move onto insulting you.
Donal has no such work ethic!
If you make an argument and an insult gets in there I don’t take it much more than two friends argueing at a Beer Summit!
But if the guy always starts off the debate with your an idiot he really isn’t my friend and as such doesn’t get what he says dismissed easily!
Gary I sense much hope for you! LOL
We can go drinking together!
I hear what Joey’s saying. Sabermetrics can be interesting but talk to me about the catcher who allows his pitchers to throw a 2-2 curve in the dirt with a man on 3B. The guy who guns down runners at 2B and keeps them wary at 1B, hops on bunts, knows who to pitch to and where and just generally runs the show out there for the pitching staff. Does the thinking for them and lets them just concentrate on executing their pitches.
Give me a Grote, Sundberg, Dempsey, Simmons, Santiago, Soscia or Tony Pena any day. If you get a guy that like Carter who can do all that and more even better but you got to start with what’s vital first and what influences the teams chances in a full half of games, not just 1/9th of half of them.
Thanks T,
That was exactly the point I was trying to make.
Baseball is a game to relax and and take a time out from the fast pace and stress of our lives. Talking about it in advanced numbers and formulas only takes away from the escapte – at least for me. For others, perhaps not. But I love talking about Grote and what he did to nurture the young pitching staff on the field in terms of how he played, not in terms of computer analysis or even the traditional stats. One had to either see or read about Grote the individual to really appreciate him.
My point, t agee, is that Joey claimed that the use of advanced stats prevent such discussion or that it is the domain of mere coffee house chatter and not used by anyone of import to the game. That is simply not true.
I agree when you say the true value of a catcher is difficult to measure by any statistic, traditional or advanced. I agree that currently, there is no reliable metric for defense.
And I agree that there are many many topics you can discus within the realm of baseball that have little, if anything to do with statistics.
My problem lies with the misrepresentation of facts in order to dismiss something off hand.
Donal,
The creep of a more off the field examination into what drives winning is facinating even to me who’s open minded but not really up to speed on sabermetrics. I’ll listen to anyone talk about them because I love baseball. Love talking about it, watching it and playing it. Still do. but there are certain aspects of the game that simply cannot be measured accurately or even at all.
I don’t feel the need to tell anyone how to enjoy the game. I had a ball going to Shea with a girl who used to root for whoever’s “costume” she liked better. Absolutely killed me when she decided the NYY costumes were the best.
Just like not everything that passes the eye test has held true under the light of some closer examinations, not all sabermetrics can account for and explain certain events. Somewhere in between the two or using one to confirm the other is what most saber metric people agree is the best value of some overall extraordinary work done and is especially useful in providing career long retrospectives but it cannot be counted on to do it all. Just part of it. A fun part of it to be sure but a certain fun, and very meaningful part of it can get lost in the noise as well.
I know the stereotype is the person who enjoys sabermetrics is the guy who never played and vice versa and from my experience the guys who played the best always thought more about the game than others.
Many of the people who are into baseball enough to be involved in at least reading stuff are the one’s who are actually still playing ball. The kinds of guys who chip in for a hitting machine and hit all year, take GB’s while everyone else is watching March Madness or throw at the Y in the winter and I think that comes from playing ball long enough that your playing with a younger generation and hear from them about this stuff and it just grows from there.
Stereo type in my experience is actually the opposite. The guys who got away from participating are the one’s who didn’t keep up with the evolution.
Just my opinion.
I never really thought of saber stuff as more than a way to try and quantify the age old “who would you rather have” debate. And to make it possible to compare across eras.
that, and using a huge pool of data to try and root down to what factors lead to more wins (or runs in some cases, but that should lead to more wins!).
even questions like who was better, maris or Bonds. Or contemporaries, like Foster or Henderson in LF. Wildly different players, but which one is “better?”
I know Metsie thinks that it all revolves around a few guys deciding OBP was the only thing that matters, so they built a whole formula to “prove” it. doesn’t of course mean that it is true.
anyway, I know that OBP is as old as BB, and is not a sabre stat, but I don’t even know which of the fancy ones (war, XYZPDQ, etc.) even qualify. OPS isn’t.
slight correction Stick….
“I know Metsie thinks that it all revolves around a few guys deciding OBP was the only thing that matters”
No I think the guy who made Sabers popular decided that and made Sabers up to PROVE his idea which was then built on by those who did not really understand what Bill was doing with them and didn’t realize the inherent bias in the ones he produced.
Then took those concepts and Metrics, Made new metrics which are flawed because of the derivation of what they used (Garbage In) and never bothered to correct that mistake!
Then there are those who read Moneyball and BELIEVE OBP is some key because the book said it was at the time! Time has changed, unfortunatly they have not!
OBP is a fine metric if you want to know the percentages of a guy not making an out! It’s not a Saber really but Sabers do tend to use this stat more than they should and many metrics are built on how important it is!
Tell me OBP a better judge of a hitter than BA? Why? Because it takes things that are not hits into account?
Does that really make sense?
Are all outs bad outs? They are in OBP, Not in BA!
It’s an accounting proccess that is the problem with OBP where it relates to CONTRIBUTION, Earned and UNEARNED in rating a player!
A Guy who gets hit by a pitch 10 times is as good as a guy who gets a single or a double 10 times! Did it really tell you who is better when the metric is equal amomng the three?
The story told by Metrics is only as good as the story elements contained in it!
And if you put elements that are not relevant or exclude elements that ARE, you have pretty much BIASED the story that SHOULD be told if all factors are considered!
It’s not the metrics themselves that are biased allthe time it is the importance put ON those metrics and/or the story people claim it tells but doesn’t!
And in that case even if there is no bias in the metric the bias is in the use of it! You can bias it by adding something that doesn’t belong or by using it to tell a story it doesn’t tell!
Niether are the actul truth because the truth has no BIAS!
“No I think the guy who made Sabers popular decided that and made Sabers up to PROVE his idea which was then built on by those who did not really understand what Bill was doing with them and didn’t realize the inherent bias in the ones he produced.”
You say that over and over again, and I’ve asked you to prove it repeatedly, but you run away every time.
Why can’t you just man up and prove your claims? It is one of your biggest fallacies and brings half your arguments crashing down.
This is why there is no point discussing math with you. you start with a false assumption that debases any argument. anything a person throws at you, you can just fling this back and never have to actually address the information at hand.
You can’t even grasp things like logic and causal relationships. How the hell can anyone get into statistics with you?
I have poved it repeatedly and since you couldn’t DISPROVE what I said decided to insult me!
I already showed how the OBP bias of Bill James resulted in OB Bias in wOBA and as a consequence of using wOBA, WAR!
Now prove that bias does NOT exist and stop acting like a child making mother jokes and form an argument instead of an insult!
There was MY proof, now you DISPROVE that!
I DARE YOU sonny to show the error there without just saying your wrong!
Make an argument instead of causing one for ONCE in your damn life!
“I have poved it repeatedly ”
No. You never have. You just say it over and over. Your own bias and incredulity is not proof.
“I already showed how the OBP bias of Bill James resulted in OB Bias in wOBA and as a consequence of using wOBA, WAR!”
No, you just said it does. Just because you personally find the conclusion hard to believe does not make it untrue.
“Now prove that bias does NOT exist”
Again, you fail logic. One does not prove negatives.
You have to prove that people set out to prove that OBP was better than BA rather than simply found it true through the math.
Pred it again today…If you think can DISPROVE what I said Knock yourself out and stop just repeating NO YOU DIDN:T!
You are hereby charged with making a reasonable insightful and fact filled post denying that OBP centric folks didn’t bias wOBA and as a result WAR (which uses it) towards folks who walk, Walk intentionally and equally to those who do not, reach on error, get hit by a pitch and made the calculations such that a guy who reaches base 100 times on error looks better than a guy who hits 50 Homeruns!
Show the math the calculations of both those situations and tell me who you come out with as the better hitter and contributor to his club!
We all await your response and any response other than that will be ignored as the ravings of a lunatic!
1) I don’t have to prove you wrong. you have to prove yourself right. You continue to fail logic.
2) Just because the conclusion does not agree with your preconceived notion is not proof that it is wrong. Especially when the whole discussion is over whether preconceived notion was right to begin with.
3) Your scenario is horribly worded and makes little sense. I’m also willing to bet there is lots of information either missing or misrepresented. You’d be better off giving 2 real life examples (ie players)
“1) I don’t have to prove you wrong. you have to prove yourself right. You continue to fail logic.”
Been there done that PROVE my logic is failed with DATA or shut up and stop repeating the same garbage over and over again!
“2) Just because the conclusion does not agree with your preconceived notion is not proof that it is wrong. Especially when the whole discussion is over whether preconceived notion was right to begin with.”
I showed how the construct was skewed towards the Bias, Show me the data that proves otherwise by taking my last challenge and tell me who comes out on top in war the guy who gets on base 100 times via Error or the guy who hits 50 HRs!
If you can’t then you can’t prove I’m wrong! Can’t intelligently state it either!
“3) Your scenario is horribly worded and makes little sense. I’m also willing to bet there is lots of information either missing or misrepresented. You’d be better off giving 2 real life examples (ie players):
How can you say something is wrong if you didn’t understand it huh?
Re-Read it and ask someone to help you comprehend it if you must but if the concept is too difficult for you to comprehend it doesn’t make it false!
The Concept of gravity is incompresehsible to a snail but that doesn’t make Einstien a liar!
Makes the Snail stupid!
Which are you> The Einstien or the Snail?
I think sabermetrics absolutely has a place in helping formulate your team, but I really don’t think that it can be applied to college or HS stats.
I’m not using Jason Bay simply because he hasn’t worked out to date as an example but was the question asked anything more involved than “we need HR’s, Jason Bay hit’s Hr’s, lets get him. I know the Mets said they did a study and Bay pulls more HR’s than Holliday and in Citi Fields configuration that would be preferable, if your only considering HR’s but was that study anything more than just a look at a spray chart of their HR’s? I’d be willing to bet that’s all it was.
The difference in the environment between Fenway and the Red Sox lineup is astronomical. Surely there would be something more substantial that could have been used to even see if those expected HR’s would matter all that much, let alone whether we would actually get them.
2010 featured low OB high strikeout guys like Francouer, and Barajas, plus the newly high strikeout David Wright. That gives you four RH hitting high strikeout guys hitting 3-4-5-6.
Now I’m no sabermetric dude by any stretch of the imagination but does that look like a recipe for disaster or what?
With all the work that’s been done in examining baseball over the last 25 years there just has to be something that would have provided better results than a simple HR spray chart.
‘I think sabermetrics absolutely has a place in helping formulate your team, but I really don’t think that it can be applied to college or HS stats.”
Well if they are true, why couldn’t they?
Remember if a statistical analysis and formula is TRUE it is TURE under ANY conditions!
Thats why you create them so when you take two players in different situations you have some common denominator to remove the situational incongruities!
If lets say WAR is a good metric it should be easily applied to college, HS and Sand Lot and show you the right comparisons. It doesn’t because it uses some Phantom player as a comparison. It could work I suppose for those others if you used a phantom as the Zero!
Lets take OPS which does not use any phantom average.
If you think you got the right answer by adding OBP and SLG in the Majors why is that not a sound method for MiLs, College and HS?
If it doesn;’t work in that universe what makes you think it works in the MLB universe?
This is something I have been trying to get accross here!
If it doesn’t work EVERYWHERE it really doesn’t work! There is something MISSING something FLAWED with it!
They can’t be true because of the level of competiton.
Being able to get away with strikes in HS doesn’t mean you can get away with throwing them in the minors. Stats wouldn’t even be as accurate an need be at the HS level to discern anything truly worthwhile if they even could do that.
All scouting, projectability, makeup and chance of development at that age.
But Tag, isn’t the the entire point of these metrics?
To LEVEL things on a comparative basis?
With some Metrics it isn’t the metric itself that is useless on the different levels, Just the notion that a certain score is Pass or Fail.
An OBP of Above .350 is considered above average in the MLB (not sure if that number is true just use as an example)
So maybe an OBP of .300 is considered Above average in college. That doesn’t mean that you can’t use the metric as a comparator of players at that level!
A guy who runs a 4.5 50 in college is just as fast as a guy who runs a 4.5 50 in football!
the Metric of how fast you run the 50 is the same no matter what level your on!
The same can be true for many metrics used by the MLB!
OBP will still tell you which players get on base more than others. Does it matter if the AVERAGE scale is lower for that league than the MLB? You can STILL tell which one gets on base when compared to another!
So if a Metric is REALLY TRUE in what it says, and what it says is relative to what you want to find there is no reason why a Metric used on an MLB player should not apply and work just as well as the HS kid!
In the cases where a STANDARD is used such as WAR and the phantom player YES it’s hard because you have to set the standard based on the level your using the Metric on!
WAR in the MLB uses Minor league averages
MiL War would have to use an average College player for the Zero and College would use the average HS player as the Zero!
Thats the only reason WHY things like War don’t apply at lower levels because those levels constitute the CONSTANT in those equations!
And the constant changes when you switch leagues!
Just another reason why I refuse to buy anything in WAR because it requires some made made (derived from stats unrelated to MLB) to tell you something about the MLB!
GOOD Metrics don’t require changing just because the league, team situation, is different!
Good Metrics LEVEL OUT those inconsistencies as much as possible so that what is left is truthful no matter where the guy plays!
That is basically the entire point of using Stats! To determine how one player does vs another when given the same situation!
OK, while I’ve enjoyed sitting back and watching the fireworks fly here…I have to chime in on a few things.
The notion that sabre-metrics is flawed because it doesn’t hold true in EVERY instance is in itself a flawed and misleading argument. Statistical analysis, by simple virtue of it being statistical is not a simple mathematical equation with a finite and absolute answer. By this argument, the simple stat of BA is flawed and therefore irrelevent because players rarely post the same BA year over year. In fact, many players have major swings from year to year becaue of factors that cannot be quantified statistically. However, we have forever used BA as a major function of valuing a player, whether that valuation is objective or subjective.
I want to point out here that I’m not a sabre-metrics guy at heart. I don’t believe you can simplify a player’s value to a purely objective metric. However, it serves as a ‘more’ objective valuation with which to compare the almost purely subjective conclusions we reach through visual analysis.
The BA is not a fool proof guage of a player’s performace in the future, but it serves as a good statistical starting point from which to project. All metrics are equal in this sense. The team with the highest WAR will rarely win the WS, just as the team with highest BA rarely does. Or the team with the lowest ERA, or the team with the best OBA, etc. etc. This in itselft does not disqualify the WAR metric. It simply is what it is. Just as we use reason and subjective analysis to come to a final opinion after considering the more traditional stats, we can do the same after considering WAR or UZR or any other advanced metric.
It’s also important to point out that money ball is disctinctly different from sabre-metrics. Sabre-metrics is simply a more in depth analysis of a players performance over periods of time. Money ball then takes it a step further to apply a monetary valuation to those metrics. It seems to me that the real argument is about the viability of money ball concepts, and sabre-metrics becomes the victim in the middle.
Even the argument over money ball is somewhat ridiculous. It serves its purpose in the proper environment and situation. When operating within a tight budget it becomes more heavily weighted and serves as a valid function of building a representative franchise. In a situation such as the Yankees, or the Mets of the past, greater importance is placed on the final step of converting talent into championships. One is not exclusive of the other.
To me, alot of this appears to be rather emotional debate of a one or the other nature. Each view is valid and each metric is a function of the final assessment. To say that sabre-metrics is nonsense is like saying the size and location of a home is nonsense. Ultimately it boils down to which house and neighborhood you want to live in, but the statistical breakdown of cost per square foot provides an objective valuation to help make the final decision.
I’m fairly certain you’re my new best friend.
James you do realized that pretty much what you said was Stats are useless for anything right?
Excercise in futility because they don’t and can’t give a concrete answer right?
Too MANY variables!
Well since Sabers is all about CREATING the unseen unknown variables maybe they should focus more on that instead of coming on here and claiming they HAVE THE ANSWER TO BASEBALL sitting in their spreadsheet!
Not saying you said that just saying some do make those claims!
Like your new friend Xtreeme does from time to time!
Is Stat Analysis a Science?
Only in the same respect that Visual Observations of the stars was done scientifically and accuratly so we could build the LAWS and EQUATIONS used to predict where they would be at any given time and where they were going!
The observations of Stat analysis do not DISPROVE what you see it is the other way around!
But it is possible if you took every variable and quanitified them and weighted properly you CAN come up with the right answer!
Just like different people making different observations coming up with different calculations (metrics) managed to come up with a law governing the behavior of things in gravity!
There are Metrics and then there are these COMPOUND metrics! I don’t think anyone has any problem withthe simple metrics. There is no inherent flaw in SLG for instance. But it’s just a piece in the puzzle!
Doesn’t tell you who is the better batter, but it may indicate who gets the best hits when they do get one!
OBP doesn’t tell you who gets the most hits or who is the better batter, all it says is who gets on base (ON AVERAGE) more than someone else!
People then combine BOTH THESE METRICS (Compound) which has nothing to do with who is the better batter and then says this says who the better batter is!
No mention of sample is included here, No mention of frequency! Just an Average outcome of ONE AB in percentage form!
And then used to tell a story it can’t possibly tell because it has nothing to do with that story!
Who said anything about BA being foolproof in a players performance? It’s only relevant in a discussion of HITTERS!
Who HITS the ball, HOW OFTEN! It suffres from the same things as SLG and OBP do in that no mention of the SAMPLE is inside that metric!
A .300 Hitter with 4 Abs looks as good as a .300 hitter with 500 Abs!
Now all that said it IS POSSIBLE if you can determine ALL the variables to make metrics that will be true no matter where you apply them!
You need a super computer probably to calculate it!
If people spent more time making metrics that expose these UNKNOWNS instead of replacing the metrics we already have that do as good if not better a job we might actually be able to say Stats are worth the paper they are written on!
thats how SCIENCE is built!
What we have here though is a lot of conjecture, Bias and opinion wrapped up in the Math expression and put forth as the gospel according to baseball!
If it worked like that then we would have any scouts being employed!
and EVERYONE would be within one game of each other for the playoffs!
Well done James.
Well said James Stetz.
Metsie,
I’m not trying to pick a fight here, but you spend an awful lot of time referring to “they”, “them” and “Sabers”. You write about people trying to “prove” things and “replace” things.
Honestly, it appears almost like you’re fighting some battle against imaginary invaders of some sort.
I’m not going pick apart what you’re saying here, as most of it is valid, and I have no beef with you.
However, consider the possibilty that your adamant refusal to accept anything sabre-based as having any legitimacy at all is based on something deeper. What? I don’t know. I don’t know you and am not a psychologist.
But seriously, if you step back and just look at this page from top to bottom, it is dominated by you desperately trying to discredit sabremetrics to anyone unfortunate enough to have posted. It’s a type of bullying really.
I’m not trying to attack you. Just asking that you step back and look at what you’re doing objectively.
And James I’m not looking to pick a fight with you!
How many times have you posted here?
How often have you read what gets said around here?
It would seem like you just got here either because Xtreeme Invited you or you just stumbled on the site because it caused some stir on some other site…
In either case Xtreeme is THEY, THEY being MISUSING Stats, Disparaging anyone who still use traditionals and anyone who might question any Metric such as WAR for the construct of it’s metric!
THEY, THEM THOSE are the majority of people who spout a stat (Metric) have no IDEA what is in it, how it is derived and how what is in it gives or misleads the story they are trying to tell!
And when you point out the weakness of a metric or how some other metric actually is better..
THEY, will say it’s the new SCIENCE and your crazy!
They look up stats have no clue how to MAKE that stat and then come off like they have some inteligence where none truly exists! Kids acting smart because they copied the answer off a test someone else took!
Sure they have the answer but don’t really know what the answer means or how to get to the answer Just spout it and if god forbid anyone questions that they are then attacked!
Believe me I didn’t make this a conflict of the proper use of stats or how good stats are at prediction, I know full well they are nice little conversation pieces that have nothing to do with results!
And I know some Metrics are Useful while others are not!
I use some sabers for comparison and ignore the ones I know are not worth the paper they are written on!
Yet when a discussion about someone happens here some guy who is ALL SABER, ALL THE TIME will spout some Saber metric that has nothing to do with the comparison he is trying to make or use some metric that is as badly constructed as any metric can be because it’s values fail to follow any logic.
And when someone confronts that THEY attempt to call the use of that metric a SCIENCE and those who doubt it crazy!
I know science and Metrics aren’t it!
They COULD be part of a science and various metrics could then be put together in a way to come out with some sort of central truth or prediction.
When all the laws of Physics are sorted out and a Theory of Everything exists maybe then we won’t have bad Metrics posted for these Script kiddies to use because any calculatioon will have a model of mathematics that it has to fit into and prove or not fit into and can be discarded!
and James I know there are a lot of long posts here but it should be pointed out in almost every post I have made I have not trashed any metric merely for it being accepted as a Saber!
Just the few that seem to be based or constructed with a bias such as WAR wOBA (Hell even Saber folks dispute these two)
James, you caught on pretty quickly. Obviously most of what this guy says is misguided, to put it mildly. Took me a lot longer to figure it out.
Thanks Xtreem for once again proving my point!
I’m misguided because I question some stats!
And your NOT misuided for saying BA is useless compared to OBP!
You are THEY!
I don’t think anyone has to believe what someone else does. To each their own but things should always be questioned other wise we’d still be curing illnesses with mercury and wearing flannel uni’s.
Metsie’s more comfortable with BA that’s cool. I prefer both, like James said it’s very illustrating to see what is behind the difference between the two. Tells you a lot of things imo. Room for improvement? Players maxed out his ability? Hitting in an incorrect spot in the order? Needs a platoon mate? All kinds of stuff.
But to each their own.
You now Tag….
If the Saber rattlers spent as much time trying to make the metrics that tell you THOSE things as opposed to all the time spent replacing traditional metrics they would probably have a lot more usefull metrics people would accept than they currently have!
TOO MANY Saber guys are busy trying to prove Bill James’ avoid the out and get OB philosophy when they should just be looking for metrics that tell you something NEW you can’t look at easily because there is no statistical formula for it yet!
FP is fine but there is a lot more to a catcher’s fielding than just chances and errors etc…
A Metric for how a catcher CALLS a game would be very useful in selecting a catcher!
A Metric for how pitchers do with him behind the plate as opposed to others would be good too!
How many times he was shaken off a sign and the results of what happened when he was and when he wasnt’t would be a GREAT metric to have!
But these guys spend all their time trying to replace BA, RBI, and turning NUMBERS into percentages of data that already exist and tells that story. It would be much better to find some OTHER story to tell!
I suspect these saber guys that are being hired by the teams ACTUALLY do that!
They sure don’t need someone to calculate the existing Sabers all they need to do is go on baseball reference and look them up!
So the Sabers they all claim as being ACCEPTED by the Majors are not the same SABERS the Rattlers spout but these NEW metrics you and I want to see!
Until someone writes a book about them though they will remain proprietary information!
Fair thought Metsie. It would be very interesting to see what’s being utilized and looked at right now.
This though isn’t really a saber site and I think when basic common sense stuff like OB gets brushed aside as irrelevant the whole discussion turns out like the last hour of a drunken wedding reception.
Measuring your business results is extremely important in any industry and the first part of that is coming up with the correct tool in which to measure them. That takes trial and error. No different than the light bulb.
There is whole front of new perspectives being searched for and looked at, just like the link you brought up yesterday. The first team to identify who and how pitching prospects get injured will have a 10 year head start on those not even looking.
Being ahead of the curve is so vital in a competitive industry because you can have all the resources in the world and it won’t do ****.
Any organization that isn’t doing absolutely every single thing possible is signing up for the life of Promethus instead of Apollo. To snicker at anything that could improve results is to just guarantee that you’ll be left in the dust.
NIce summation. Especially this:
‘Any organization that isn’t doing absolutely every single thing possible is signing up for the life of Promethus instead of Apollo. To snicker at anything that could improve results is to just guarantee that you’ll be left in the dust.’
I don’t believe ‘sabers’ eschew all things ‘old school’.
Just about everything is always evolving. That includes baseball. Gone for good are the days where teams would just exclusively send multitude of scouts out to get a look-see at players. Not utilizing advances is just plain dumb. Same as just utilizing stats would be.
“I don’t believe ‘sabers’ eschew all things ‘old school’. ”
Sabers don’t…the folks who use them do however!
A metric does not contain any formula to sat this other metric sucks!
It’s just a formula that comes to a conclusion about some combination of stats!
It’s not the metric (Formula) that eschews the old formula it is those who USE the Sabers that do it!
Don’t misunderstand Tag…
OBP doesn’t get brushed aside as irrelevant on it’s own it’s only as a barometer of HITTING where it gets brushed aside as better than actual stats that only talk about hitting!
OBP give hitting credit for things that are not hits!
BA does not give credit for things like walks and gives SOME credit to the sacrifice!
BA more FAIRLY gives equal credit to the batter and the pitcher for a walk by ignoring the walk as a WASH and not couting it towards the batter in a reward or penalty for not HITTING which is what BA is all about!
OBP gives all the credit for the walk to the batter! But it is not a hit! So how can you say a guy who got rewarded as much for that walk is as good a HITTER as a guy who instead got HITS?
This is the reason OBP gets brushed aside. it isn’t the stat it is the story some guy who wrongly believes OBP is about hitting that is being brushed aside!
OBP is not BETTER than BA in judging Hitting!
It’s good for what it was made for judging how often a guy makes an out or gets on base!
Regardless if he was good at something or not!
And it gives credit for things the Pitcher didn’t accomplish yet ignores those outs that the batter makes that ARE accomplisments such as the Sacrifice!
Thos make the OBs better!
Maybe not for him but someone else!
And that is a contribution that is being BRUSHED ASIDE by OBP!
As I said OBP is overused by the Saber folks because for 1 it was the key ingredient in Moneyball that helped bring advanced stats to the forefront,
And two because most of the sabers that have been accepted and posted are the ones that Bill James influenced and created!
And those who agree with Bill James are also the ones who are most interested in creating newer metrics! So it’s a snowball that gathers steam and the problem is most of the folks who use them just look them up and never bother to look at the ingredients that make them to see if they tell the story they THINK they are telling when they use them!
Like I said Parrots who can repeat what they heard but have no clue as to what they heard actually means!
OB% doesn’t attempt to measure hitting. We already have a stat for that.
OB% measures something else. What percentage a hitter gets OB period.
If you like BA you can’t dislike OB because BA comprises about 80% of OB%.
While for a guy like Vladimir Guerrero OB% isn’t really a primary concern, for a guy like Ruben Tejada it would be. Simply because without the power to hit doubles and HR’s (although doubles will come for RT) it’s what else he does that makes the difference.
A .300 singles hitter who doesn’t take his walks is hurting the lineup, now if he plays GG defense at SS or catcher you might be able to live with that but if he doesn’t he’s hurting the team, not helping it.
Take a guy like Murphy. Murphy doesn’t walk all that much and when he does it’s when he’s not hitting but he still gets himself into hitters counts and most importantly always puts the barrel on the ball. GB’s in areas where most guys get thrown out, get through because he hits them so hard plus he hits loads of doubles and will easily get 20 HR’s this year. No complaints Murph doesn’t walk that much.
When your consistently putting the barrel on the ball and getting extra base hits it’s not a big deal. When your swinging at pitches that your making weak contact on that are out of the strike zone it’s not just your OB% that’s suffering, it’s your BA as well.
For a singles hitter .250/.350 beats the living **** out of .300/.300.
Excellent points t agee.
Again, I don’t like basing player valuations on sabremetrics alone. I think the practice has become common because of the popularity of fantasy leagues. It’s not just baseball by the way. It’s destroyed football in my opinion.
However, there is definitely value in perusing a player’s metrics to get a feel for who they are. For example, a players UZR and the related defensive metrics can bring a deficiency to light that would otherwise go unnoticed. On the flip side, it doesn’t account for the player being out of position, possibly due to utilization of a higher baseball IQ, and positioning himself according to other defensive weaknesses around him, the pitcher on the mound, the runners on base, and many, many other variables. Derek Jeter is a prime example of someone who gets destroyed by metrics, but proves himself on the field. However, this doesn’t disqualify the UZR rating altogether.
But advanced stats can and will show certain other tendencies. It’s all in how you translate it. As in your example, If I see a .250 batter with a .350 OBA, the next thing I want to see is walks. If his walk total is through the roof, I can surmise that he has an excellent eye. It doesn’t make him a better hitter, it just brings another factor to light. One that is incredibly important to his ability to help a team win. If his walk total is average or below and his ROE is high….now it really gets interesting. This tells me the guy is likely to be a hustler. You don’t reach base on error at a high rate unless your putting pressure on the defense by getting your ass down the line in a hurry. This is an example of how an advanced stat enhances the ability to better judge a player’s tendencies without having watched every at bat.
Well done Agee. Couldn’t agree more.
Thanks James and Fonz,
Couldn’t agree more about fantasy football, and baseball either for that matter. What a joke. I actually had 3 guys on one of my teams beg out of an important game because of their fantasy football draft. Boneheads.
Are you sure that RB/OE helps OB? I don’t believe it does. Errors count as outs for both BA and OB as I understand it. Other than catchers interference and HBP it’s pretty much just walks, isn’t it?
Ah. X I had it wrong. Thanks for the correction. Good point about Jeter.
t agee,
Could be. I’m not sure. Like I said, I’m not a big sabremetrics guy. I just don’t discount it out of hand, and would rather have access to the data than not.
I tried to use a random example to make my point of how a seemingly irrelevant fact (to some people) can provide insight beyond simple stats. If ROE is broken down separately, that’s even better. I wouldn’t have to work the backward calculation.
I play amateur baseball and manage a couple of teams as well. I always have guys lobbying for positions in the order based on BA. But I can see the guys who hit the ball hard and make outs and those that get cheap hits. I can place a value on both based on their other tendencies. I can look at my books and see the guys that reached base because of hustle, but it didn’t translate into their line. I can see the guys who stayed out of double plays, and the guys that forced errors by getting good jumps on the bases.
You can’t get this information on MLB players unless you’re watching every play of every game and recording it somehow. If others want to record spray charts, base advances and the like, GREAT.. If there’s an equation that attempts to quantify the minutiae, even if flawed, I want to have it. That’s really all I’m saying.
The guy that wrote the article I originally linked to used WAR calculations to show that this team is NOT as weak as it may initially appear. That’s what got all this started. I understand how some find WAR to be flawed, I don’t argue one way or another. But the overall point was that there is real possibility for this team to surprise some people, and the point had to be made in an evidentiary fashion. WAR serves the purpose. Does it mean he’s right? Of course not. But if he simply said the Mets can win because “I feel it in my bones”, he’d be a complete hack, wouldn’t he?
That’s how I got drawn into this thing. I just linked to something I found to be interesting reading, and watched the board devolve into the mess it is now. LOL
Agee, RBOE is the same as an out when calculating OB%. As far a WAR goes,I’m almost positive that Extreem isn’t overly fond of WAR based on previous statements. I could be wrong,I’ll let Ex answer that. I don’t ever recall anyone being a proponent of WAR from all the regular pro sabermetric posters here.
Correct. Not overly fond of WAR.
Always thought it was picking just to pick with Jeter too. UZR, I’m told doesn’t measure all the pop flys Jeter goes out and gets, and he gets every single one. It doesn’t account for all the great relay throws he makes or the routine plays that with him are routine outs almost every time without exception and the perfect throws to 1B.
When you boil it all down he’s been a better defender than lots of guys with better reps.
T, UZR does consider those pop-ups. It records the zone in which he makes the play. But it doesn’t factor in those throws or how he’s almost always positioned perfectly. It’s why I don’t put a whole lot of stock in UZR, especially year by year. I’ll consider it over a period of time, but only briefly.
Sorry Donal, but we still have our friendly disagreement on this.
In the attached, Ralph Kiner did speak positively of OBS:
http://www.amazinavenue.com/2011/5/17/2174865/this-week-in-sny
But that doesn’t dominate the conversation with him. As I’ve said, sabremetrics is interesting but has to be kept in it’s proper perspective, unlike that article in Bleacher Report. Otherwise, just get a computer geek to speak about the game instead of Gary, Keith, Ron and Ralph.
I did go on line to investigate David Cone’s feelings in the matter and came across the attached:
http://nymag.com/daily/sports/2011/05/david_cone_on_advanced_stats_t.html
Some of the things David spoke about was knowing more about the hitter, as follows:
“We just kind of relied on written scouting reports through the eighties and even the early nineties. I’ve really been amazed by some of the data that’s out there, especially with regards to tendencies of hitters, and certainly tendencies of pitchers as well. I would have loved to have gotten that data when I played.”
That’s about being able to obtain information one always wanted to know but couldn’t retrieve in such detail before the days of the microchip made obtaining such stored material easy to get. Davey Johnson did the same with his computer. To believe otherwise is to imply that pitchers never went over those details with their catchers when sizing up the opposing hitters during their pre-game meeting. He just wants the information in more precise details. That is not WAR. That is not OPS. That is not a source of any new concept. It is just more information.
David went on to say:
“I love Fangraphs and the mountains of data you can get there, especially with hitters’ tendencies and what percentage of pitches they chase outside the strike zone. Across the board, when balls are put in play — you know exactly which guys are groundball hitters, certain tendencies.”
Again, David’s emphasis is on data, knowing the minute details of the hitters better than what memory and hand-written notes could provide. This is not about new stats – just more detailed and accurate information. Pitchers have always been analyzing hitters to know who might chase pitches outside the strike zone, hit grounders, put the ball in play more often, etc. They just wants to know who. Again, it’s only automation replacing charting by hand ala Davey Johnson.
And finally regargind new stats, David noted:
“Some of the defensive metrics are pretty interesting, too, although it’s probably a little bit controversial still. But interesting nonetheless.”
“Interesting” is something we can all agree to. But that is not the same as embracing it and discussing things primarily in those terms.
I’m ready for the next round in our friendly debate.
Joe
“But that doesn’t dominate the conversation with him. As I’ve said, sabremetrics is interesting but has to be kept in it’s proper perspective, unlike that article in Bleacher Report. Otherwise, just get a computer geek to speak about the game instead of Gary, Keith, Ron and Ralph. ”
No, you don’t. There is no difference in talking about ,say, a pitcher’s ERA and pitcher’s FIP from the perspective of a broadcast. It does not stop you from referring to the pitcher’s mechanics or velocity or any of the other thing GKR discuss about players.
Again, you either don’t understand or are misrepresenting. No one has ever said all baseball discussions have to be about stats, advanced or otherwise.
“To believe otherwise is to imply that pitchers never went over those details with their catchers when sizing up the opposing hitters during their pre-game meeting. He just wants the information in more precise details. ”
Yes, and he is getting deeper, more precise and, more importantly, verified information. It is not subjective, not wavering, not dependent on the guy he’s talking to’s eye sight or memory.
““Interesting” is something we can all agree to. But that is not the same as embracing it and discussing things primarily in those terms.”
Like I said, you don’t have to. You just shouldn’t misrepresent those of us that do.
And if you think I’m taking it too seriously, look a few posts above ours. That is someone who takes this stuff way too seriously.
Ah the great minds of mathematics those guys are right?
Intellectuals? Scientists? Well thats pretty debatable! LOL
SOME metrics are sound others are even more flawed than the traditionals they are meant to replace!
WAR is one of them! It counts RBOE as an accomplishment of the batter! When its really a failure of the defense!
A metric is only as good as the Balance of the variables (made up of traditionals) in the equation!
A Scientist doesn’t just throw numbers together into a math problem and call it a Discovery!
There is usually an underlying principle that helped to form the equation for the purposes of proving that principle! If the principle is wrong then the construct of the Math is also wrong! In science it must use and integrate with the Math that already exists before it is accepted as a proof!
Doesn’t happen with Sabers!
The Math will prove whatever you put into it but what you put into it may not be the reality of the situation!
If I start off with the principle that guys who hit the most doubles and walk the most in combination are the best hitters I can easily come up with an equation that will rank the best double hitters/walkers to prove that! That doesn’t mean the metric I created is correct or actually shows the best batters, just that the metric shows what I THINK is the truth!
This is the problem with most of the Sabers that people hate the most!
The Metric (Any Metric including Traditionals!) is only as good as the BIAS thrown into it!
And what is NOT in the metric is also as important as what is!
wOBA is another of those really bad metrics!
Take a look!
wOBA = (.72*(W – IW) + .75*HB + .90*S + .92*ROE + 1.24*D + 1.56*T + 1.95*HR)/PA
An INTENTIONAL is as good as a regular walk! ROE is better than an actual Hit! A Double tripple and HR are not proportionally weighted compared to a walk, HBP, Single or RBOE! It leaves a distinct BIAS toward the lesser accomplishments! Why? Because it is an attempt to make OB much more important than the TYPE of OB!
Here is a version that also includes SB and CS:
wOBA = (.72*NIBB + .75*HBP + .9*S + .92*ROE + 1.24*D + 1.56*T + 1.95*HR + .25*SB – .5*CS)/PA
Why add the ancillary bases and outs from RUNNING to the metric but not his sacrifices that ALSO move a runner over?
Note how reaching base via Error gets you more points than getting a hit! Note how a Single counts as one but a HR counts less than 2 even! Why isn’t a 4 base hit 4 times the value of a single? We call this Tipping the scales in statistical science!
This Metric is an attempt to weight a players OB and that would be fine if it was actually complete. Player skill isn’t really being judged in it just weights his OBs he had and rather unfairly weights them if you ask me. That might be fine in and of itself but this Metric is then thrown into WAR as a major component!
Unfortunatly most people who USE the metrics don’t know what the hell is in them! All they know is someone heard they were good and thats good enough for them because they don’t sit there with a spreadsheet and calculate these things they read it off of a web site and think they are iNFORMED!
Spouting Data you don’t understand does not make you INFORMED! Doesn’t make you an INTELECTUAL! All it really does is make you a Parrot! A Parrot can say what you said but has no clue what it actually means, just repeats it!
And creating a proof based on a wrong or biased belief is NOT science!
It’s nothing more than Math Games being proposed as real science because anything scientific must be backed up by the math that proves it!
But Science already has a lot of math that IS proved!
And your Math must fit into the Math that exists!
Ever wonder WHY many Saber rattlers don’t want you to look at the traditionals?
Because thier Math doesn’t fit into the existing and proven math that exists!
They will say a guy with a higher OBP is a better HITTER!
BA tends to dispute that notion!
They Say OBP means more RS But when you look at the ranking of OBP vs the ranking of RS it doesn’t fit!
In Science that would never get accepted!
Because they KNOW the math inside and out!
And looking at the equation they can see right off the bat when the equation is flawed!
The Math in a scientific theory must never have exceptions!
If the Math does not work in EVERY situation the Math is WRONG!
There is no math that says A + B = C except on tuesday!
If there is an exception the equation is wrong!
It’s not SCIENCE nor is it INTELECT!
It’s a nice guess that may be right under many conditions but it is missing something in it to describe what condition must exist for it to be the TRUTH!
Metsi,
What you just said was way over my head to even try to understand!
Let me summarize: Misrepresentations, fallacies, obfuscation, unfounded assumptions, and far more bluster than knowledge.
See as I pedicted….INSULTS!
Apparently Joey it went over Donals head as well! LOL
Not really hard to do that though, just speak!
Sorry Joey, I will put it all in a nutshell for you…
It’s easy to say THIS IS TRUE and create a math example to explain it!
But that doesn’t mean it is true or that the Math has anything to do with TRUTH!
Math is merely another language!
A way of saying something using numbers!
You can say 2 + 2 = 5 but does it?
You can also say OBP + SLG equals TRUTH (AKA OPS)! Does it? Or does it merely equal OBP+SLG?
Only if the statement made is true does the math that explains it also true!
Anyone can turn an idea into a math equation! But if the idea is wrong so is the math! Even if the IDEA is right if you don’t come up with the correct math to explain that idea then you get the WRONG answer!
That is much of the problem with SOME sabers (and I don’t suggest ALL are bad!)
Math can only tell the story you WANT to tell!
The fact that it can be expressed in MATH is not a proof in science, what proves it is how the Math jives with all the other Math that exists and the statistics that are seen!
TRUE Metrics when applied to all players should come out with the right answer.
In the case of wOBA applying the metric to all shows bias to one type of player over another!
Get on base a lot is better than getting better OBs! Reachning on an error gives you BONUS over those who hit the ball in play and get a hit, a guy with 100 singles will rank higher than a guy with 50 Hrs! A Guy who gets on base 100 times by error will be ranked better than the guy who had the 100 Hits!
In the case of the singles vs the HR
One actually scores 50 runs! Probably more! How many did the singles hitter get you? Will he score HALF the time? If not is he really better?
That Metric is then used to calculate WAR!
The problem with many Sabers is they have a tendency to favor OB above all else!
And then use those metrics to create others!
The others might have some value if not for the flawed data contained within!
Garbage in = Garbage Out!
Clayton, i understand your optimism and enthusiasm, but this article was just WRONG on some many levels it’s not funny..
The SP in all seriosness, SUCKS..
The bullpen is still an unknown, remember,our closer now is a guy who LOST the closer job everytime he’s been given the opp, and don’t forget, ramirez pitched in the west coast, where offenses are not existent..
The Offense is WORST, by a lot.. we lost reyes and beltran, uhhh, that was the offense last year
Catcher, let’s face it, thole just is what he is, a guy with some contact and no power.. plus he did a terrible job at the plate last year.
1B ok, we love ike, i think he’ll be a 30 hr guy, but again, that remains to be seen
2B murphy can hit, but defense wins more ballgames than offense,
SS tejada is set up to fail, i am sorry i like him, and i wish i am wrong, but replacing the best SS in franchise history is no easy task, he’ll put too much pressure on himself trying to make fans forget about reyes and … yeah, that’s not gonna happen
3B david wright still david wright????? yet you posted his stats from 2005-2008 when he was a 300 25 100??? yeah, we also had REYES, BELTRAN AND DELGADO, so those little padded stats will no longer be there, instead, why dont you post his line from 2009-20011 when he is a 285 17 74 guy??? again, he’s not a leader nor superstar, nor somebody who will carry this team around, the illusion of some fans thinking he’s that player is beyond me, i hope he can do well and be traded, an almost 30 year old 3rd baseman with back issue making $15 million a year is an outraged
LF jason bay.. and CF andres torres… that makes me wanna puke
RF duda has power, i think he’d be a 30 hr guy, but with noone on base he’d be a 30 hr guy with like 75 rbi’s… mike cameron type player
so the offense being loaded is a STRETCH!!!!!!
Whoa Horsey! LOL
Did you read his first piece that was about all the things you just said?
http://metsmerizedonline.com/2012/02/two-schools-of-thought-on-the-2012-mets-part-one.html
Clayton was attempting to document and play Devil’s Advocate for Both Sides of the coin!
you really go out of your way to find any excuse to bash Wright, don’t you?
in case you forgot, in 2010 he was a 29/103 guy (.283 BA, so not too far off .300). And that was with no one in the lineup with him. So that kind of blows your “he needs to hid behind the other guys” theory.
2009 was an off year only from HRs. he still hit .307 with a .290 OBP.
last year, he only played 2/3 of a season, and a good chunk of that with a broken back, and he still put up #s that would have been 20+/90+ over a full season.
Yeah, lets hope that the back issue is at least semi behind him. One thing we know is that when he is healthy he is a top 5 3B in the league and has been even in his down years except for last year.
2009-2010-2011 avg stats for the golden boy: 284 17 74 enough said.. 1 year out of the past 3 since he’s been asked to lead the team… yeah, that’s bashing??? or REALITY!?!?!?
then you would really like the #s for your guy.
.306 6 38.
He did have 27 SBs per year, but then again, Wright had 20 so not much of a differnce.
Glass half empty (or in your case just about all empty) vs. glass half full look at this.
Bottom line is not one of us will know how this season is going to shape up until they actually play the games.
[...] Collier looks at the 2012 Mets from an optimistic standpoint on Mets Merized [...]
I see from the depth chart that Scott Hairston is the backup to Jason Bay in LF, Andres Torres in CF and Lucas Duda in RF. I know Clayton was doing an OPTI-METS portrayal, but does Hairston have enough range to cover all the outfield? lol.
Looks like that is the depth chart either from Yahoo sports or from MLB.com so for now until they sign another OF or put Baxter/Low on the 25 man then Hairston is it.
With Sandy Alderson as GM, we’d better get used to understanding and accepting “money ball” and/or “sabremetrics”. While I agree that stats like WAR and OPS become less important once a team gets to the point of trying to win a championship over just being competitive. But with the financial troubles the Mets are faced with, this is the way the Mets will be run. Alderson is the godfather of moneyball, and he’s not here by accident.
Alderson isn’t here because of advanced stats. He’s here because he’s a respected figure in MLB who is believed to be smart and strong enough to guide the Mets out of their current mess.
Alderson isn’t the right guy because he uses or used sabermetrics. He’s the right guy because he would do something like that. Do things that contradict “what we all know” or “what we always did”.
making moves for the 2012 roster was just the tip of the iceberg of the job that he was brought in to do.
One would hope. The other thing is, if a big budget becomes available to him at some point of his tenure here, does anyone believe he won’t use it?
He probably won’t go looking to break the bank and set records for player contracts. But he would be an idiot to dismiss such a valuable resource. And the man is not an idiot.
And the man is not an idiot.”
Right, his followers, his apologists and believers are…
Baseball being a pastime is best enjoyed and debated with spunk, passion and gusto among friends at home, at the office, at a bar or at the ballpark but though it is a game of numbers, getting too involved with them not only detracts from the beauty of the game but takes so much of what is truly it’s best parts – how the game is played – away.
If one wants to debate upon who is better than what based on sabremetrics or wants to place a monetary value on players in coordination with that, fine. It’s just that I want to relax and talk about the game and leave all the in-depth statistical detail at the office. Many of us have enough knowledge of the game to discuss it in terms of it’s true simplicity while others like to debate it with figures and have the stamina to do so. It’s just that for me, all the advanced analysis takes a lot of the boyish charm out of this great sport.
One last question. How can sabremetrics take into account the many times Jose Reyes dropped a pop-up in the sun because he wore his sunglasses over the bill of the cap just to look cool? Or Carlos Delgado had to hold up at first or was thrown out at second because he stood at the plate admiring his deep drive instead of hustling. Or Jaba Chamberlain infuriating other clubs with his antics after striking out some batters – remember how he hot dogged it against Boston striking out so many after he gave up four runs in the first inning before even recording an out?
That’s what baseball is and, IMHO, sabremetrics isn’t.
I believe factors like that are labeled “intangibles” in sabermetrics
Hi Clayton,
While we’re on the subject of advanced stats and it’s accuracy, why didn’t you use Citi Field for your chart at the beginning of this article? That’s going to throw all the sabers off of their projections.
Haha there are the hard core sabers that actually divide fields into an entire grid to factor every ball hit into the infield/outfield at different ballparks to determine how moving in fences would affect teams/players etc. They’re now even taking that into consideration.
Well ,for starters, you are assuming they have any actual affect. Second, the very specific scenarios you’ve mentioned make for nice little discussion items, but they are statistically insignificant. If you think any major league team is planning around those events, you are in for a disappointment.
Also, advanced stats aren’t about certainty, only probability. If I could get any kind of certainty in baseball, I’d spend less time here and more time with my bookie.
Hi Donal,
But if sabremetrics is used for probability, then why do so many use those stats to argue who the better player (i.e., the recent article about Gary Carter being better than Bench, Berra or Campy because he had the higher WAR)?
And as you know, I believe formulas and curves have their proper places in projecting the outcomes in physics and the sciences but not when it comes to human achievement. As an example, take into account what Bill James projected 2010 would be for Jason Bay had he played a full season:
153 games, 32 home runs, .268 batting average. Won’t get into his advanced statistics.
I had a friendly disagreement with my friends when I said I didn’t expect Bay to hit even 15. I cited the change from Fenway to Citi Field, the fact that he would be pitched differently so he couldn’t pull the ball down the line as many noted and, most importantly, that the park had already messed up bonafide power hitters like David Wright and Carlos Beltran.
Another projection of James that I disagreed with was the curve that he used to predict Lastings Miledge would develop into a good major league player. Right away it was obvious that Lastings had an attitude problem which got in his way from listening and learning – he was going to do things his way no matter what. Well, Lastings is now getting ready to play in the very conformist society that is Japan. He was dumped by four major league teams in six years.
Not to mention feeling the major free agent signings made by Sandy last winter would be busts due to health issues, getting on in age, talent or a combination of all three – yet I still remember my cohorts, who were also ardent supporters of money ball, lauding Sandy for shoring up both the starting rotation and bullpen with pitchers they were certain were under-valued and overlooked by other general managers.
I projected all this by myself based on instinct, a knowledge of the game and an understanding of human nature – not any sabrametric formula. Of course, I’ve made some big blunders in my own right, including that the Mets gave up on John Maine too soon (I’m still not hearing the end of that from some of them LOL).
It doesn’t just apply to baseball. Remember two years back the consumer electronics industry was predicting 3D was the next big item in home electronics. This wasn’t just advertising hype – they cited scientific analysis based of precise opinion poles as proof this was going to occur. On the other hand, with 70 percent of all American households having already owned a HD monitor, I simply asked why would they think so many of them were going to discard what they just recently had spent a lot of money on and again buy another monitor just for 3d? I also professed there was something not right with those industry-conducted studies due to the economy and the studies conducted by independent sources showing not only the opposite but also a declining interest in television viewing in general.
Of course, my gut instincts were right. As anyone in marketing can attest to, opinion poles can be geared toward producing the result one wants to achieve (sounds like the sabremetrics argument, doesn’t it?). And most people had more important things to do with their money than to go out and buy another television set so soon.
There is too much in the human equation that computer analysis can’t take into account.
Ciao
I think the mets should sign Pudge to a minor league contract, and let him earn a spot on the roster. He could teach Thole a thing or two.He also bats right handed, he could catch against lefties.I really believe this is a must.
This thread was one of the more interesting debates I’ve read in a long time. Well thought out posts with some really good points.
But now my head hurts.
I have to step in here and come to the defense of Donal. We’ve been in a heated argument over the merits of sabremetrics and money ball but it has been cordial and friendly.
Don’t know how the insults started but since day one, Donal has been courteous to me, even if he thinks I’m missing the point and vice versa.
Hope this doesn’t mean I’m setting myself in for a deluge of put downs now!