13
2012
Two Schools Of Thought On the 2012 Mets: Part One
An article by 
Over the course this off season, there have been thousands of posts ranging from extremely negative to obliviously positive regarding the Amazin’s. So I have decided to group these fans into two categories for your viewing pleasure. Here one of two extremes on the various players that make up your 2012 New York Mets, starting with the negative. I will have the other end of the spectrum in the coming days.
THE PESSI-METS:
This tends to be the more popular group around the Mets fan base nowadays; and frankly, who can blame them? After two heartbreaking collapses, injury plagued season, many failed prospects and countless departures of core players, it’s hard not to have some reservations about any team the front office throws out there every April. Anyway, here is the pessimistic view of Flushing’s Finest:
Starting Pitching: This rotation has got to be of the worst in the National League, certainly the NL East. Santana’s best years are far behind him, I doubt he’ll even make 10 starts in 2012. Jon Niese and Dillon Gee are average, unproven young pitchers that can’t be relied upon. Pelfrey is yet another failed prospect and the fact he is still even in the rotation shows that the Mets are indeed “punting” this season. The only half-way decent pitcher they have left is R.A. Dickey, who is now 37 and for all we know could regress next year.
Bullpen: Instead of re-signing the catalyst of this club, –Jose Reyes– Alderson decided to invest $7.5 million in two relievers; and they were paid much more than what they’re worth. What everyone seems to forget is Frank Francisco had a 5.92 ERA in the first half of 2011. He has never been a consistent reliever and now the Mets are committed to him for 2 years. As for Rauch, they decided to give him $3.5 million when he not only had a 4.85 ERA last year, but also is coming off of knee surgery! Aren’t these bottom-of-the-barrel signings supposed to be cheap and at give at least a decent return? The sole improvement to the ‘pen was Ramon Ramirez, and the Mets had to take a major downgrade in centerfield to acquire him.
Offense: It is as simple as this: Lineup, minus Reyes and Beltran, equals pitiful. An atrocious left fielder, a regressing third baseman and two unproven sluggers are not going to get the job done.
Josh Thole: Thole is not a major league catcher; He can’t hit, throw or catch. He is just a cheap alternative to getting a real MLB backstop. By being behind the plate, he is indirectly harming an already weak pitching staff. Why he is even on a major league team is a mystery to me.
Ike Davis: Yes a very talented young first baseman, but after that ankle injury, there is legitimate concern if that will become a lingering problem. What if the beginning of 2011 was just a hot streak? He has yet to prove himself and because of that he is a question mark entering 2012.
Daniel Murphy: Murphy is a corner infielder, not a second baseman, and outfielder, or whatever else the front office tries to make him into. He has an a average bat, and since those are hard to come by for the Mets, they have been attempting to put him on the field no matter how ugly the result is defensively; and that method will continue with Murph at second in 2012.
David Wright: Yes, Wright was the face of the franchise for years, but he on the down hill of his career; an old 29. His strikeouts have been mounting and his overall numbers have been on a consistent decline for several years. Also, after the back injury, the possibility of that coming back to haunt him is a cause for concern as well. Best to deal him while a decent return is still possible and before he walks like Reyes did.
Ruben Tejada: The grand replacement for Reyes? I think not. He has good range and a good arm, that’s it. He cannot bat to save his life. Another guaranteed out in the lineup for the Mets; like they need another one of those.
Jason Bay: It is pretty self-explanatory that Bay is awful. He is just one to add to a laundry list of bad contracts that got the Mets into this lowly state. Expect nothing more than a continued headache from Bay over the two remaining deals of his contract.
Andres Torres: Torres has basically the same story as Tejada. He can field, has good instincts, but he can’t bat whatsoever. The Mets went from Pagan and Reyes –two capable bats– to Tejada and Torres; two players who are inept when it comes to batting. How the Amazin’s are going to put up any kind of run production with guys like this in the lineup is beyond me.
Lucas Duda: Duda showed us in the second half that he has the capability to be an above average MLB hitter, just we haven’t seen that over an entire season. His defense leaves much to be desired, making him a better fit in left field which is obviously being clogged by Bay. If both Duda and Ike prove to be merely a flash in the pan, the Mets are a guaranteed 100+ loss team. Pretty sad that an entire season relies on two players who have barely had over one season in the majors.
About the Author: Clayton Collier
Clayton, a Long Island native and die-hard Mets fan, started writing online about three years ago. He is currently a Journalism major with a minor in Broadcasting at Seton Hall University. Although very disappointed with the current state of the team, Clayton remains hopeful that the young prospects in the farm system will bring the Mets back to a respected franchise in baseball once again. Besides writing for MMO, Clayton is also a staff member at 89.5 WSOU, Seton Hall's modern active rock radio station. You can contact Clayton by following him on Twitter: @Clayton_Collier or E-mailing him at MaybeNextYearMets@yahoo.com
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This is the
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DTJU1bfaraQ/TJ0psiu3COI/AAAAAAAABIM/7-07RjkXqhw/s1600/RandyQuaidXOut.jpg
version of being a Mets fan
I don’t care what people say, I still enjoy the second movie.
Pretty easy to tell the posters that are going to give this version 3 thumbs up.
I am lookiing forward to the alternate universe version to come.
and as usual, the truth is likely in the middle. And big contributions will be made by guys not even mentioned.
LGM!
Josh Thole DOES belong in the major leagues. He is young, has not had much experience as a catcher, and has shown to be successful in portions of his game. Give him a fair amount of time and he will prove to be among the top 15 catchers currently in the game. He will put up a .280 + average at the plate with a high OBP. As far as catching, he will throw out around 30-35% of the base runners with reduced pass balls. Last year was a minor set back and your taking it way to far by basically saying he sucks. Remember, this is the mets hardest worker. He puts more time into his game then anyone else. He is still developing as he did come straight out of high school. Within the next 5 years we will find Josh Thole among the top runners for all star votes. This past season he was slowed down by a marriage, the birth of his first child, and pressure of competing Paulino for the starting job. Put that all into perspective and maybe you would not come out saying he does not belong here.
@kyle. What are you Thole’s agent?
But in 5 years when he’s a better than average catcher he’ll be playing for someone else.
No, not his agent, wish I was though. I am sure that dude is making more money than I am. I seen Thole play many many times, and all I am trying to do is point out the fact that it is to early to say anything negative on him for this upcoming season. Let all negative feedback come mid-late season. To be honest, I am a cardinals fan, I don’t have much faith in a few players but I sure as hell would not be talking bad comments about any of them…. Its about being a true fan to your team. Obviously they belong in those positions. I feel like the mets front office, scouts, and coaches all know so much more than anyone else, and if they felt they could improve with their range in salary they would do so, but for now looks like they will have to use what they have…. Go watch money ball and gain some faith!!!
Well congratulations Kyle on your World championship. That was one hell of an exciting series.
Just so you know no one here is down on Josh personally and we do appreciate what he does bring but considering how he’s still learning the position 3 years after coming up here we just can’t understand why he spent the first 3 years as a professional playing 1B.
Well I’ll take these one on one since this part seems to be an attempt to explain the side I am on here…
You were close Clayton and made some good points but not all are what I would say I Agree with.
1 – Starting Pitching – The issue isn’t so much a prediction on Santana, Santana can go either way and until we see what we got it’s not the main problem with the SPs. There is actually hope here that the SPs will be better if Niese can take another step in his development and Gee remember what got him into the rotation. What the main concern is unless Niese does take that step and maybe one or two more that we at best even if Santana is the Ace he used to be is that we have only ONE ace and that is never enough to compete in the NL East. None of us are pessimistic because of that or disappointed because there was really nothing that could have been done in this area by Sandy even if he had the money! CJ Wilson was the top pitcher available and thats not really what I would call Ace!
2 – Bullpen – This was the FOCUS of the offseason and yet it is STILL worse than the one we started with last year which was Attempt #1 to rebuild that Pen! If he did that good of a job without payroll restraints in 2011 rebuilding the Bullpen why should we expect him to have finally gotten it right with LESS money?
3 – Offense – you were dead on here! We lost the catalyst of the Offense and the leading RBI man who led the team with only half a season of accrued stats!
4 – Josh Thole – He is a MLB catcher (his check says so!) what he isn’t is Piazza and truth is No catcher today IS Piazza! Thole could be another LoDuca who has a Career .286 BA compared to Thole’s .276 career numbers in only 3 years! Is he defensively challenged? Maybe but his numbers include catching a Knuckleballer and all those runners who stole off the LOST IN SPACE Pelfrey who ignored them like an Ex Girlfriend at a Party!
5 – Ike Davis – Is one of the few bright spots on this team. Will he give us what we have seen so far? Well the issue really is here , If he does NOT how much is due to him being rusty and how much is due to not having Beltran in the lineup to see better pitches? Or Reyes on base to take up the room that will now be used to pitch around and even walk intentionally to dispatch him?
6 – Murphy – pretty much spot on here. I love his Bat I love his FIRE but it’s useless unless it has a home that does not take away from it! Murphy could be the LEADER this team has sorely needed but you can’t lead when your the one booting routine grounders in a position your not entirely suited for! Personally I think it’s moot and the play at 2B just temporary until Wright gets traded and Havens takes over while Murphy moves to 3B!
7 – Wright – Fences in the excuses are gone! And NO WAY TO WIN! If he sucks he will be traded for something probably chopped liver! If he does well he will probably be traded for Kids! The know and pessimism with Wright has very little to do with what he MIGHT or might not do, It’s all about the fact he is the next tradeable high salary player and Sandy will need to cut more in order to stem the money losing lack of attendance tide! To use a phrase so popular around here (with a little twist) “We don’t draw enough (or Win Enough) WITH Wright so why care about drawing enough or winning enough without him? The pessimism about Wright is all about what Sandy is likely to do not anything to do with what Wright himself does!
8 – Tejada – No he won’t replace Reyes’ production and probably not his fielding either. He’s not bad when you look at him on an island by himself and has some promise in the future! Lets correctly point out that he is probably the ONLY decent replacement for an All Star Sandy has made! We lose less with the glove with Tejada than we lost with the glove on Duda (who we will get to) and while the bat lost something it was more of a trade in some respects. What was once a triple will at best be a double but most likely a single!
Jason Bay – Bay was a bad signing no doubt. At the time of that signing he was one of the better candidates to go for in a very weak FA class! The pessimism here is lack of faith he will shine with the new fences, the problem is even if he does he is gone quicker that Wright is!
Torres – Sad when a throw in on a deal for a part time reliever becomes your everyday player isn’t it? Especially since a .270 hitter was not good enough to keep and is being replaced by a guy who hit .231 last year and is years older than the guy we thought was not worth keeping! Lets hope Kirk stays healthy and comes up to erase this problem.
Lucas Duda – #2 on the HOPE scale! The guy showed he can hit! can he do it for an entire year? Even if he does the problem is going to be his adventures in RF that are going to make us lose games! He has lots of power when he gets good pitches but like Ike Davis you have to wonder if the lineup protection is strong enough for that to happen? He is hardly a reason for pessimism the issue with him and Ike is what is around them will diminish thier production which some will then point to as a decline of the player and use as reasons for getting rid of them! You were pretty much spot on with the doubts but those doubts are hardly the reason we are unhappy with the state of the team! IF (which gets overused by the optimists) bay can be unloaded then Duda can move to LF where he would appear to be more suited!
Reasons you did NOT mention….
BENCH! – Well the bench last year consisted of Duda, Turner, Tejada, and on the borderline Paulino. We are pretty much left with Turner being the only .260+ hitter on the bench! Hairston is still here which doesn’t say much. Nickeas is our backup catcher! it should be noted how people complained about Omar RUSHING kids up due to his lack of bench. What do you think will happen this year? Will we rush Kirk and Havens? Harvey or Familia? Some say they are ready but they are no more ready than Pelfrey and Niese were!
Longevity – Look at this roster, how many players will be under contract in 2013 if by some miracle of god they do well? Answer a whopping THREE! Two more have options, Another 9 that will be Arb eligible. Add it up! 14 players meaning we will need to add 13 players to make a roster for 2013! And we though there was roster tunover the last two years?!!?!???!??? The Arb eligible players are estimated to cost us 36.2 Mil in 2013! Double what they are costing us in 2012! How many of those guys get traded due to money not performance? Considering that Wright, Santana and Bay are those three guaranteed players and all could be shipped off at the first sign of value what does that tell you about the LONG TERM VIEW we are supposedly so focused on?
Finances – We lost 70 mil last year WITH Reyes, Beltran and K-Rod as a draw. We cut them and others came off the books for a savings of 55 Mil. Do the math and tell me we are now going to make money even if attendance stays the same as last year! Who thinks we will draw more this year? We have solved nothing financially and may not have even saved what we THINK we saved should that attendance go lower than last year!
Minors – Well we are about to start year #2 under Sandy and so far the only thing we sem to have added was Wheeler and Nimmo! Nimmo is 18 (maybe 19 by now!) Wheeler is at least two years away! Three All Stars gone and all we got for it is two prospects one of which we would have gotten even if we had not made a single trade? I fully expect there to be BIG BUZZ in metland over whoever those comp picks we got for Reyes nets us. Will that be beacause those players are really good or because we need to justify losing an All star that should have net us a 1st round pick if only we didn’t let a team worse than us steal him away due to lack of interest!
All in all you did a pretty good job Clayton I await your OPTIMETS post. I just wanted to add tht some of us pessimists are concerned AS MUCH with the LONG TERM as the optimists claim our moves are all about!
Long term view is good but I don’t see a long term view!
The Optimets have long said that you CAN BUILD a good team cheaply using Sabermetrics. I see no sabermetrically valid signings made yet in two offseasons!
Another point that should be made about we pessimists here….
None of us are saying that Sandy and rebuilding won’t eventually lead to a better overall team!
What we are saying is it isn’t better yet! the BETTER part hasn’t started yet! We are a CHEAPER team not a better team and while being cheaper my in the future lead to being able to buikld a BETTER team none of us are going to APPLAUD the moves until such time as that BETTER TEAM is realized and signed to play for the mets for longer than a one year contract!