Feb
27
2012

The Mets 5th Starter Should Be…Johan Santana?

An article by XtreemIcon

What, you were thinking maybe Dillon Gee?

Johan Santana is the best pitcher on the Mets, even in a close to healthy season, but his health concerns are the stuff of legend around the Mets universe. The Mets have three days off in the first fifteen days of the season and, by my calculations, won’t need a 5^th starter until April 24^th, the opening game of a series against the Marlins at Citi Field.

I think it would behoove the Mets to leave Johan in extended Spring Training to keep working on his arm strength and any unforeseen obstacles on his path to recovery. I know it might seem attractive to start Johan immediately against the division to open the season, but with so much riding on his left arm, is it the smartest move? Why subject Johan to the coldest weather of the season as early as six weeks from now, when his long term health would benefit from waiting just three more weeks?

There are plenty of people expecting nothing out of Johan, and any contributions would be icing on the cake, so missing him for three weeks would seem a small price to pay if the payoff was that Johan was better equipped to take the ball every fifth day down the stretch. This would also strengthen the contingency plan, seeing as Johan would potentially need a blow further down the line should he miss the first three weeks. It would be different if, say, this was Johan’s walk year and the Mets could try and squeeze everything out of Johan they possibly can, but Johan is under contract for two more years after 2012.

Should Johan occupy that “fifth” starter role and start on April 24^th, he would start again on April 29^th, but the Mets then have two off days in the next twelve days, allowing him the pitch his next two starts on an extra day’s rest. Johan wouldn’t pitch three straight games on regular rest until May 15^th, 20^th, and 25^th. Investing three extra weeks in his recovery could pay huge dividends over the course of the full season.

What do you think?

About the Author: Jesse Elgarten

9 Comments + Add Comment

Russell Zanca February 27, 2012 at 9:40 am

I think he’s been out of baseball for quite some time now. If he’s “repaired” and fit, why keep him shelved. The 2012 Mets will need every bit of help they can get. Remember all the babying of Martinez, it never paid off. If Santana is a fragile mess, then the sooner we know the better.

I see no reason to make him pitch seven or more innings in the early going, but either he’s ready to pitch like an elite starter again, or his contribution to the Mets might be minimal overall. I would definitely restrict his pitch counts during April, but I want to see what he gives us.
srt February 27, 2012 at 9:47 am

I have not problem leaving Santana behind for the first few weeks.
In fact, I fully expect them to. I’m in the camp of I’ll be surprised if he’s really ready for opening day.
- Donal February 27, 2012 at 10:34 am
  
  Ya, I also think and extended Spring Training is in his future.
stick February 27, 2012 at 10:05 am

This is one of the things that will just work itself out in ST, and you really can’t decide now. Entirely possible he just isn’t fully ready, and will need the extra 3 weeks or so back in PSL to finish getting ready.

But, if he is “normal” coming out of ST, might as well use him.
- Mr North Jersey February 27, 2012 at 11:06 am
  
  This.
trs86 February 27, 2012 at 10:57 am

Also depends on the schedule. Can they get him some starts in warmer weather locations?
- sportsguy31 February 27, 2012 at 4:27 pm
  
  they dont play any warm weather games at all. just look at the schedule. i say start him opening day and then put him back in extended spring training for a bit. they could use his roster spot for another bullpen arm in the early going anyway.
Metsie February 27, 2012 at 11:36 am

It’s not a bad idea but I still think pitching him every 6th day instead of every 5 might be better off early in the season.

The issue really isn’t how much rest Johan gets though.
The problem is going to be him pushing things he should not push because he is one of those all out type of guys!

He’s less likely to get injured because he doesn’t get proper rest as he is for trying to throw a 95+ Fastball he really shouldn’t be doing just yet!
RickeyBobby February 27, 2012 at 1:33 pm

Overall I think ts a great call, depending on how well he progresses but it does make alot of sense to push him those couple weeks unless he is totally ready.

The other option is having him on a strict picth count say 75 pictches until he gains full strength and recovery btwn starts..at least its so far so good ..

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