PECOTA and the Mets: No Home Runs For You!

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• Bayonne Mets Fan February 10, 2012 at 7:30 pm

  The Pecota system has about as much legitimacy as Bill Pecota did himself – yawn.

  And Daniel Murphy would be the WORST choice for leadoff man. He’s a terrible baserunner and would botch up any type of strategy you would attempt. Could you imagine him being hung up and picked off on a hit and run? Or get picked off taking a big lead in anticipation of a play? Forget it.

  However his strength is getting big hits in important spots and extra base hits. I would bat him 2nd and have the first 3 Tejada, Murphy, & Ike. That’s a good first 3 in the right order to start the game off.

  Daniel Murphy can have a very good bat and you’re wasting it wanting him to lead off trying to work the count. That would be a waste of his talents. You want him to use that bat, swing it, and drive in runs.
• Chris February 10, 2012 at 8:24 pm

  lol, dude. they obviously made a typo and switched the OBP and the SLUG on wright. did you really think they were projecting him for a .475 OBP also??
  • Bayonne Mets Fan February 10, 2012 at 8:31 pm

    Well if Wright hits around .290 with 28 HRs and drives in 100 than u can figure out the rest of those less important numbers.

    A 75 RBI Wright at full season is not good – and don’t come back with “well if the guys in front of him get on base” because they still can and knowing Wright he can leave a lot on so if he drives in 100 that’s a good number i can start with. Starting with his OBP is completely useless
  • 72MetsFan February 10, 2012 at 8:36 pm

    lol, thanks Chris. The thought that it was a typo never even crossed my mind.
• srt February 10, 2012 at 8:44 pm

  That SP is below mediocre. I’ve been saying it all winter, waiting for reinforcements but apparently that’s not the plan. Even if those offense numbers looked better, it’s going to be hard to win ball games putting up 5-6 runs if the pitching is giving up 7-8 runs.

  I would have liked to have seen the whip projections on these pitchers.
  And before the ‘I hate all things sabermetrics, you ought to get your head out of those spreadsheets’ crowd gets going…..I’m by no means any kind of advanced metrics expert. Math is simply not my area of expertise. However, I’ve come to respect those whip numbers as a better indicator on how good a pitcher is more so than any W/L records – especially when SPs these days don’t pitch as deep into games as they used to back in the day.
  • 72MetsFan February 10, 2012 at 8:48 pm

    I’m like you, WHIP happens to be favorite pitching stat when I look at pitchers and it’s nice they even post WHIP on the scoreboards at Citi.
    • Bayonne Mets Fan February 10, 2012 at 8:57 pm

      WHIP is okay, I tried to warm up to it but can’t. I have to know the amount of walks, K’s, etc., individually but that’s me – i want to know what the pitcher is doing and not just have an idea of what he’s doing. I have a problem with jamming things together to get a number, even though WHIP is not that bad a stat it still gives you a ‘snapshot’ instead of telling you really what the guy is doing in detail. You learn about the ballplayers better that way instead of all these “snapshot” stats.
      • saltygary February 10, 2012 at 9:05 pm

        WHIP is a great stat and I feel is a better representation of the pitchers performance than ERA. Runs are effected so much by defense and base running… WHIP really is how many guys does the pitcher let on during a game. A walk is almost as valuable as a single and WHIP accounts for it.
        • Bayonne Mets Fan February 10, 2012 at 9:10 pm

          ERA is still best because you have pitchers that “pitch to the score” and can make allowances due to the situation like Jack Morris used to do, and you can wind up with a WHIP that misrepresents. And WHIP denies the fan the individual statistics (that are the best anyway) and gives you a snapshot. It’s neither here nor there for me.

          As for worrying about all that other stuff “well the defense, the park, blah blah blah” We always knew those things and never needed them translated into numbers. A good pitcher is a good pitcher and is going to keep you in the game. Common sense and personal judgment will prevail over just relying on stats all the time.
          • saltygary February 10, 2012 at 9:32 pm

            I’ve never been a fan that focus stats based on the limitation of different parks. Colorado before the humidors may have been more offense friendly and Petco is more pitcher friendly, but the game is played in all of stadiums. If you have a good pitcher, he will do well in all parks. The variances have a effect but in a way they become so complicated it can take the fun away from just sitting down having a cold beer and peanuts and watching the game.

            As for more traditional stats, they are all snapshots. WHIP is how many guys get on and ERA is how many guys get home unless its a error. On the basic level it’s all about how many runs you score and how few runs you let in. The other stats just paint a picture of the individual strengths. Some over the years have more value than the should like a pitchers Wins and others probably don’t get enough credit like WHIP.
            • trs86 February 12, 2012 at 4:32 pm

              That is what I am confused about. How is ERA anything different than WHIP other than the fact that one is hits and walks while the other is unearned runs? It’s still a snapshot. Otherwise wouldn’t you just care about runs and innings pitched and forget ERA? How about Hits and AB’s instead of BA? Isn’t OBP and WHIP basically the same stat just used differently? So while you are OK with WHIP you are anti-OBP? Pro ERA and BA? They are all basically measuring the same things.
      • USMF February 10, 2012 at 9:11 pm

        I hear what you’re saying…I’m a big numbers person and any of these stats are great for comparing a player vs player or year vs year production.

        What I think gets lost on a lot of people is…Any stat, don’t care if it’s a baseball card stat or these fancy new Saberstats is that they give you the result, not the reason for the result. As much as they try…you have to watch what happens to really know the “Why”.
  • USMF February 10, 2012 at 9:02 pm

    I’m a fan of the WHIP too…ERA is still a real good measuring stick and I like to average innings per start.

    I still like the Quality Start stat…it gets a bad rap because it gets perceived as good achievement stat and people will think that 6 innings 3 runs is good…it’s not, but a good pitcher will consistently give quality starts. If a pitcher is racking up 22+ quality starts a year, he’s not doing too bad.
    • Bayonne Mets Fan February 10, 2012 at 9:12 pm

      change that to 7 innings and I’m with you. To me 6 is a 4.50 ERA and lowers the bar
      • USMF February 10, 2012 at 9:56 pm

        That’s the problem with the stat….A pitcher should say that 6 innings 3run is the least they should do every start…but not means they did a good job.

        I this world, pitchers don’t pitch to finish a game…they pitch to put the team in position to win and that’s how managers manage and that’s how GM’s put a staff together.

        If I was running a team, I’d focus my minor league pitchers to achieve the ability to do 7 innings every start before they are ready to be promoted.
        • Bayonne Mets Fan February 10, 2012 at 11:09 pm

          No way,

          I would condition the pitchers in the minors like Nolan Ryan is doing over at Texas. Condition them to go 9. They went 9 for 150 years and in this age of advanced medicine and conditioning you mean to tell me that they’re gonna wind up going shorter??? No WAY

          Babying these pitchers and conditioning them to go 7 is what causes arm problems. Make the arms stronger and make these guys be able to compete and fight their way out of trouble. I’m old school in this regard and I believe that’s the better way to go. That’s what I would do
    • srt February 10, 2012 at 11:10 pm

      I should have said I’d have liked to see WHIP along with ERA. Those are the 2 I look at first.

      I remember for awhile there with KRod, he had a high WHIP and very low ERA. He was infamous for putting people on base but somehow not allowing them to score.
• USMF February 10, 2012 at 8:47 pm

  My Lineup to start…

  1.Torres
  2.Tejada/Thole
  3.Murphy
  4.Wright
  5.Ike
  6.Bay
  7.Duda
  8.Thole/Tejada

  I’d probably lean towards batting Tejada 2nd over Thole, but Tejada has shown batting 8th doesn’t hurt him much.

  If Murphy hits like last year, Bay and Wright Improve and hit closer to expect numbers, Ike and Duda improve and supply some power and Tejada and Thole put up relativity good numbers for their abilities… the lineup be pretty balanced and have a overall good SLG%…sadly they are pretty slow on the base paths and we’re still hoping for a lot of things to work out for the better and I’m not impressed with Torres at the plate.

  Sadly, our real problem is still the pitching staff…no “Ace”, three guys who are “4th starter” quality, Johan and RAD.

  But I don’t buy into “predictions”…there’s too much variably that goes into a players production, it’s impossible to predict. You’d be just as accurate if you flipped a coin and added or subtracted 25 points to last years numbers.
  • Chris February 10, 2012 at 11:54 pm

    Thole is an eight hitter and nothing more, as far as I’m concerned, with no power and no speed. His only job is getting on base to flip the lineup over. Murphy in the two hole for sure. With all his doubles he gets in scoring position for the big guys behind him. He’ll score a ton of runs, more than Thole would in that spot.
• RealityChuck February 10, 2012 at 9:21 pm

  PECOTA = Pulling Every Conclusion Out The Ass.
• Bob L February 10, 2012 at 9:30 pm

  sometimes this stuff is just annoying…more Mets bashing…now people use mumbo-jumbo ‘projected’ stats to deride our team. WHAT is the bases of these #s? Last year’s below-career stats for half our guys? C’mon. Just play ball…
• Alex in CT February 10, 2012 at 9:40 pm

  These projections everyone comes out with drive me nuts. They are never right so why are they so popular? Like someone said just play ball!!
• Trade Wright for Nolan Arenado February 10, 2012 at 10:09 pm

  Ya know, it seems like it could be somewhat accurate. However, I can’t imagine Torres hitting 12 HRs nor do I believe he will accumulate enough plate appearances to strikeout 147 times. Also, I don’t believe Wright will hit .290, plus, Wright’s OBP of .475 and a slugging of only .373 seem like they may have been inadvertantly reversed. Other than that, it could be fairly close to what we will see in 2012.
  • Bob L February 11, 2012 at 8:11 am

    Our rotation scares me, but i’m guessing Dickey and Niese will do better than that. And DW will hit at least 25HRS @ the cozier Citi, being able to go to RF again. And just what’s the basis for being able to ‘accurately’ project stats for Ike or Duda over a full Season?
    Also, where’s these great ‘accurate’ projections for Murph, Tejada, or Thole?
    Ah, these are junk projections. Bring on pitchers and catchers…let’s just play ball.
• Metsie February 11, 2012 at 12:02 pm

  Math doesn’t lie!

  It’s main issue is it is only as good as the person who created the equation!

  Garbage in = Garbage Out!