Feb
2
2012
2
2012
NL East Arms Race
An article by 72MetsFan
Atlanta Braves
- Tim Hudson
- Jair Jurrjens
- Tommy Hanson
- Brandon Beachy
- Mike Minor/Julio Teheran
Miami Marlins
- Josh Johnson
- Mark Buehrle
- Ricky Nolasco
- Carlos Zambrano
- Anibal Sanchez
New York Mets
- Johan Santana
- R.A. Dickey
- Jon Niese
- Mike Pelfrey
- Dillon Gee
Philadelphia Phillies
- Roy Halladay
- Cliff Lee
- Cole Hamels
- Vance Worley
- Joe Blanton
Washington Nationals
- Stephen Strasburg
- Gio Gonzalez
- Edwin Jackson
- Jordan Zimmermann
- Chien-Ming Wang
About the Author: Drew Staley
On June 1, 2012 Johan Santana officially became my favorite current Met! I'm a Queens native who grew up in the shadows of Big Shea. I was a huge Ron Darling, Dave Magadan and John Olerud fan. Honored to be a part of such a great site for Mets fans. Ya Gotta Believe!
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Can you name the one that doesn’t belong?
LOL – not only first but best comment to this story.
Lets see who do you think has the worst rotation by far on that list?
It will be interesting to look back at the rotations at the end of the year to see how all those guys did, and how many changes there were start of year to finish.
good thing though the game is not played on paper.
I’m not certain doesn’t pitch elsewhere come opening day, let alone the end of the season.
der…..I’m not certain Blanton doesn’t pitch elsewhere come opening day, let alone the end of the season.
Phillies wanted to move him last year and couldn’t. At this point, he probably has to prove he is healthy enough to pitch.
Phils really need a dose of bad luck on a couple of those top SPs to come crashing back to earth.
The Phillies are desperately trying to get in under the luxury tax, which is why I was a little confused with the Qualls deal. But we all know how Ruben spends his money. If they have to trade Blanton so they can afford Qualls AND have enough flexibility to make a deal at the deadline, Amaro will hear it from Phillies fans. Of course, they just might suck it up and pay the tax, but they’ve been pretty adamant about not wanting to.
You need to cite a factor to discount the paper. Without scissors, paper is powerful. Where are your scissors to claim the paper isn’t realistic? Hope? It doesn’t always really spring eternal except for the gullible.
Yup, sure sounds like last place to me.
I see the Nats as having the strongest 1-5 but thats just me.
Trust me, it isn’t just you.
Wait till next year when they let E-Jax walk for picks, let Wang go and sign one of the biggies. How hard is it to imagine Greinke in that rotation? Not very.
X, that would be an effective use of FA for sure, isn’t the threshold to obtain a pick now a minimum of 13 M salary though?
That’s what E-Jax would have to be offered by his new team, I think. You ask him, that’s what he’s shooting for.
Oh I had it wrong. Thought that was the figure someone had to earning in his walk year.
Thanks.
Good usage of FA still and all.
Oh the Arms Race.
I like the Braves youth and longterm project ability. They’re loaded for bare. Good thing their lineup might be the worse in the division (Phils might have something to say about that).
I think the Phillies are still king, but they’re really old and have been luckily healthy. Their big three will carry them, but one injury or a Cole Hamels departure (after 2012) and they will fall to the back of the pack quickly.
The Marlins crack me up. I love their potential for good and bad. To be honest it wouldn’t surprise me if they were the best (at the end of the year) or the worst, or too busy fighting each other every other second Tuesday.
The Nationals probably have the greatest upside in the rotation because of talent, youth, and potential. They’re still a few OFs away from being the best team in the division (ya I said it). Harper is legit and will come soon enough. If they trade or sign Bossman Junior Upton, look out!!
And our Mets, well hey, every rotation has question marks right?? February is time for hoping folks. My hope is that we “Cardinal” the entire MLB this year. That’s right, we need to get our “Cardinal” on. Give up 4 runs, pitch 6 innings, turn it over to the bullpen…offense bail you out, you win game. Yay. Let’s go Mets!!
It shouldn’t come as much of a surprise that our 4 main competitors have drafted, signed and developed so much better than we have.
Atlanta has Beachy (undrafted FA) Minor (7th pick 1st rnd) Delgado (IFA) Teheran (IFA)
Philly has Hamels (18th pick 1st rnd) and Worley (3rd rnd)
Wash Strausberg (1st pick, 1st round) and Zimmerman (2nd rnd)
Miami Johnson (4th rnd)
Facts are that other than Strausberg and Minor we could have drafted or signed any of these guys ourselves.
* Forgot about Tommy Hanson a 22nd rounder
This is an interesting, enlightening, and rather horrifying point.
The Marlins, if Johnson is healthy and Sanchez and Nolasco pitch well (granted, BIG ifs), could be amazing.
Zambrano as 5th starter?
With Guillen lighting fires under everyone (and remember, only the media have said Hanley has issues playing 3rd–HE never has) the Marlins could be f***ing scary.
I think everything revolves around Johnson. They need him healthy and if he is, they can be really good. If I was a betting man, Bell is going to get fat again and get lit up, and Reyes will probably be on crutches most of the year.
Knog, this is about the 4th straight year you have predicted big things out of the Fish. I guess eventually you will be right!
Facts are that other than Strausberg and Minor we could have drafted or signed any of these guys ourselves”
STOP SECOND GUESSING!!!!! all 31 teams had chances to draft guys people missed all the time.. this is not news… pujols, votto, fielder, mauher, etc, etc… stop.. second.. guessing..
Off Topic: The start of tonight’s game between Mex & D.R. is running now about an hour late due to what looks like a delayed start or simply a miscalculation of what is turning out to be a longer than expected Opening Ceremonies.
ERROR – Message does not contain ignorant statements or personal attacks.
HAHAHA! I am literally LOLing!
OK, NOW I get it.
This place is SO entertaining, because there ARE no people like Bayonne/Metsie/Pomes on TRDMB!
Therefore, while we almost always have fun there, there are just no sources of crazy humor there like there are here (Ceetar’s occasional pronouncements on Mariano Rivera’s being overrated notwithstanding).
OK, now that I get it, I feel better.
Wait………..you know someone who thinks Rivera is “overrated?”
I think it is more along the lines of closers in general being overrated.
My take is that saves are entirely overrated, not closers. Having a bullpen ace is almost as important as having a rotation ace, so long as the manager has a decent understanding of leverage.
Game on!
This continues to be my 1 central argument. Our Metsies arent terrible, there is SOME talent, especially offensively, if DW and JBay can even have a bit better than average seasons. But good pitching usually beats out good hitting and this division is loaded with good pitching. I agree the Mets will be hard pressed for 70 wins. God, I hope we are all wrong, but it sure looks tough…
Ugh…..with all the differences of opinions, I’ll bet the ranch there isn’t one among us that looks at our rotation vs the rest of the NL east and doesn’t think we haven,t got a chance.
I know it’s all on paper right now, but boy….our SP down’t remotely look like it,s coming close to competing.
Good thing most of us realize this going in. Should allow us to enjoy the season in spite of it. Any success – as in not finishing last – will just be an unexpected surprise.
LGM!
I’ll extract as much joy as possible from each win and pay close close attention to how Binghamton, St. Lucie and Savannah are doing.
That’ll give me an idea of when I can start setting my sights on more than just that nights game.
Agee it seems like you keep yourself up to date with the entire farm system. Do you watch any of the minor league games on milb.tv? 20 bucks a year you get to watch games at almost all levels. I keep em on my laptop while watching the Mets.Can’t beat it for 20 bucks.
If I’m blacked out of all Mets games on MLB because I’m in the SNY area….are you saying I could get the Mets minor league games in spite of that?
If so…thanks. Think I’ll check that out.
SRT, I believe that’s just for the minor leagues (which may actually turn out to be more fun)
Do you have SNY but certain games are blacked out or can you not get SNY at all?
I’m in central jersey shore and not blacked out for any Met games on SNY but would be blacked out for all Mets and Yankee games on MLB.TV so never bothered.
According to fongie below though… I should still be able to get all minor league games.
Thanks for the responses, guys.
Anytime srt. There are blackout restrictions.Probably if you have an affiliate where you reside.
Yes you should be able to do that srt. I relocated down south so I don’t have that problem. I get blacked out from SNY when the Mets play the Nats and YES gets blacked out when the Yanks play the O’s. You shouldn’t have a problem though with the minor league affiliates. I’m in the Carolinas and I still get games from the Carolina League. I go to alot of Durham Bulls games.Great venue.
Fonz I was in Durham last year and zipped over and took a peek. Beautiful stadium.
We were at the a pub right across the street with about 1,000 different beers on tap with all the sticks on the wall. You probably know the place I’m talking about.
Beautiful area, nice people.
Yes I do agee. I never go in there but I know what you’re talking about. Last year I went towards the end of the year and saw Matt Moore. Lastings Milledge took him deep off of the office building in left CF well over 400 ft.Joe McEwing was the manager of the Charlotte team.. If your in town this upcoming season,let me know,we’ll catch a game.
If I get down I’ll let you know, that would be fun. I’ll tell you the stadium is beautiful, come to think of it I’ll have to take a look around for my Durham Bulls hat.
Incidentally if your interested you can get a live feed on lidom.com of the Caribbean World Series. 2-1 DR over Mex 8th inning right now.
Thanks man,I’m gonna check that out.
Hey agee! They let Francisco Pena play? haha
Yeah Fonzie, he got in at least once I saw, not that I consider myself to be a scout but lets just say if the DWL is halfway between AA and AAA, he isn’t close right now. I would hold on to him as long as possible because of how dire our catching situation is and some guys do step it up at 24, 25, 26 and eventually go on to have careers but if I were a betting man……….
Fonzie I wasn’t aware of that. Thanks, I’m going to sign up right away, that;s great,
well, the basic plan has to be just beat them into submission with the bats. I honestly think this team has the potential to score a lot of runs.
competing is going to require some serious steps forward though by some SPs.
I actually expect Neise to have a good year and really put things together. ANd Dickey should stay solid.
But can Pelf come close to 1st half 2010 for a full year? Can Gee be more than serviceable?
And at this point, I would not be surprised to see Young signed and in the rotation. Because Johan is not IMO starting the season on the team.
I’m in agreement about Johan. And we can’t possibly be going into this season with the apparent lack of SP depth…IMO.
I am confused on this Johan stuff as much as anyone. I am seeing reports of by spring training, by opening day, by July…. I have no idea.
The problem is that you can’t sign someone to an MLB deal unless you plan on one of the current guys pitching out of the pen and honestly other than Pelfrey none of them deserve that treatment. I think the Mets themselves have no idea what will happen when Johan fires it up and may in deed wait until pitchers and catchers report and see how his arm responds and then see what scraps are left.
Well. if there’s a race i am sure the mets are out of it or no longer qualify.. no offense to Gee, Niese, guys i like, but the team will not be good enough to win when they pitch good, and when pitched great they won’t manufacture enough runs..
I keep seeing this about the offense Alex but no one seems to answer when I say that the Mets scored more runs in the 2nd half when Beltran was gone and Reyes was out a significant portion as well as Murphy. Factor in that with the walls moving in and offense is the LEAST of my concerns for this year. The pitching however has a chance to be either decent or god awful.
Again, no Davis, no Murphy, no Beltran, no Reyes for a month, no Murphy for a month plus, Wright coming back from injury… and they still scored more runs per game than they did in the 1st half.
TRS86, can you please provide any link or true to that???? last i checked the mets scored like that last year:
RS RA
April 118 131
May 102 113
June 149 112
July 117 115
August 106 136
September 126 135
Now, if i get it right, the mets score 369 runs in the first 3 months w/o WRIGHT, and i will give you july, but they scored 349 runs.. you’ve been saying that lie for a minute, it was time for me to put it to the test, the mets scored way less per game and way less runs.. stop that lie ok…
1st half 399 runs in 91 games 4.385
2nd half 319 runs in 71 games 4.493
Now obviously in baseball the first half and 2nd half are not even. However, is it true or untrue that they averaged more runs in the 2nd half? Is it true or untrue that during the 2nd half they lost Beltran, lost Murphy, lost Reyes for a significant time and had Wright returning from injury?
Not only that but the numbers across the board were better:
.262 .333 .389 .722
.266 .337 .393 .730
TRS86 Please read below and for once… for once… just shut up…
Ooooo here I go using stats again and you tell me to shut up because you disagree with the stats. Is it true or is it not true that they averaged more runs per game in the 2nd half of the season?
Not only that is it true or not true that their other numbers went up as well?
Now more stats so you can tell me to shut up again.
Even after Beltran left they still averaged more runs per game than they did in the 1st half at 4.41.
So? Just because they may have scored more runs the 2nd half w/o Beltran, Reyes missing time, no Ike, & Wright coming back from injury what does that mean?
That they’re better off without those guys? No.
That they shouldn’t go out and try to replace them now that they’re gone? No
The Mets had a better team batting AVG & OBP than the Phillies in 2009 and that was the year they lost everybody to injury. So what does that tell you? Nothing – that they got guys on base but all the guys that drive in runs were hurt so they went nowhere.
It’s only a stat. Nothing more, nothing less. In this case it means absolutely nothing.
You are right it might not mean anything. However, to me it shows that there is some potential there. As you have said over and over it depends on health. IF Wright, Murphy and Davis are healthy then as I said the least of our concerns is offense.
As for replacing them? We did replace them with up and coming players that obviously are not as good as Reyes and Beltran in their prime but they do have potential to be solid MLB players.
To me, it means even if we keep on pace for the offense numbers we put up last year, the pitching still remains the weakest link – as in the SP.
BP on paper looks stronger – and I certainly hope that’s a reality. 27 blown leads by the BP last year from the 7th inning on.
27….think about that.
let’s see how they perform when the pressure is on them and not in august when we’re already out of the race by 20 games.let’s see how how these kids perform over an ENTIRE year before we say we’re better offensively with these kids in there.
I am not even saying that either. I just don’t think the offense is our major concern considering what we are trotting out every day to throw the first pitch.
That being said, is there really ANY pressure on any of those guys this year?
You mean like how reyes disappeared for July and August and turned it on in September? And by “turned it on” I mean padded his stats.
ohhhhhh, and btw, out of the 126 runs they scored in the month of august, 62 of them came in the last 11 games, which boosted their AVG if that’s what you mean.. the team was putrid in august only scoring 106 runs in 26 games and had 64 runs in the first 17 games of the month of september, not even 4 runs per game.. so can you please try to start some sort of stupid debate about the offense of the mets, w/o beltran and reyes this team is in serious trouble offensively..
Why not just ask him about the Won and Loss records of WITH ALL STARS and WITHOUT?
Win Pct in July was .593!
Win Pct after was? Uh Oh…time to teach the kiddies!
Good morning! Don’t you have a job or did you become what you disdain, the unemployed?
You are right they did stink afterwards in terms of wins and losses, however that was not what this discussion was about. Thanks for playing though.
Now if you want to know my biggest concern? Pitching. Their ERA from the time Beltran left until the end of the year was 5.00
61-65 in games Reyes played in. They were what, 1 game over .500 before Beltran was traded? So, ya. What is your point?
What was the winning percentage in April, May and June? Yes, they had 1 very nice month. Unfortunately, the season is 6 months long. All July did was cover for April.
exactly the kids haven’t done it for entire year so why so much faith in them
Good job missing the point.
you said the topic was about scoring runs and that the season is 6 months long,defending trs’s statement that the kids scored more in the second half.i’m just bringing up the fact the kids might have scored a few more runs but they didn’t do it all year either.that’s MY point.
Are you the same guy as Metsie? This looks to suspicious. LOL.
Anyway, my original point was not about wins and loses but about the offense in general. Yes the kids could take a step back but again those were numbers without a healthy Wright and with Murphy out much of the time as well as Davis missing.
Which brings me back to the original point, even IF the offense is not as good as last year which I think it can and will be… the larger concern is pitching.