29
2012
MMO Reader’s Observation On Duda vs. Votto
An article by 
Earlier today, in a post that debated the merits of Sandy Alderson’s comparison of Lucas Duda to Joey Votto, we ended up with over 250+ comments. As sometimes happens here, the conversation veered into something completely off topic, in this case a discussion between batting average versus on-base percentage.
However there was one reader who stayed on topic and posted something worth considering that I didn’t want to see get lost in the shuffle:
I wonder if Sandy Alderson knew how statistically similar Duda and Votto’s first full seasons were when he made his comments yesterday?
I’ve been singing the praises of Duda for a while now, but hearing about Joey Votto as a comparable player is one thing, seeing it like this really puts an exclamation point on it.
About the Author: Joe DeCaro
I'm a lifelong Mets fan who loves writing and talking about the Amazins' 24/7. From the Miracle in 1969 to the magic of 1986, and even the near misses in '73 and '00, I've experienced it all - the highs and the lows. I started Mets Merized Online in 2005 to feed my addiction. Follow me on Twitter @metsmerized.
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Good stuff brought by Hitman…of course, he also predicted the Mets would win 92 games this past season and that Josh Thole is pretty comparable to Joe Mauer.
Glad to see we have a mutual admiration of Cory Vaughn, though.
“of course, he also predicted the Mets would win 92 games this past season and that Josh Thole is pretty comparable to Joe Mauer.”
*sigh*
A- I said they could win between 84-93 games last season if things went their way. Unfortunately, lack of fundamentals, injuries, and pitching put a monkey wrench in that.
B- I expected big things from Thole the way he swung the bat coming out of PSL. Maybe it was excitement coming in, but I admit I was wrong. Reminds me of when people get hyped about Butch Huskey that one year when he tore it up out of ST. I’ll be the bigger man here…which I cant say for others here.
Glad someone caught my comment. Thanks Joe
Just messing with you Hitman…I have to bring it up every time we talk. Which begs the questions…is the shoutbox ever coming back??
I’m afraid not. I think the shoutbox was taken down mainly because the same people kept flaming & going completely off topic, making personal attacks against other people. Some of the ol’ regulars never bothered to show up as much as a result, including myself at the end. It just came to a point where enough was enough.
Hitman — Same thing as what went on today in one of the threads.
When Cory Vaughn got to Advanced A baseball, he was an ordinary player. Here’s hoping he regains his promise.
Joey Votto is a very good offensive player. I’m hoping Duda is comparable to Vaughn when he has a bat in his hand. But Votto’s defense is mechanical. Let’s see if Duda is better defensively. Both of them need further development.
I think it’s a little irresponsible to just compare stats. I like Duda and I look forward to seeing how he progresses this season, but a Joey Votto comp is a bit much.
Great highlight from a typically raucous MMO debate.
One thing that should be pointed out is that Votto hits LHP almost as well as RHP. For his career Votto is .306/.391/.508 against southpaws. That has such an effect on his lineup it’s unreal.
In his first full season he hit LHP .292/.365/.497 against lefty’s (almost the same as vs. RHP)
Duda hit .274/.328/.387 in his first season (2011) and while those numbers aren’t bad they will get him the additional late inning lefty that Votto has handled well right from the start.
Very fair aspiration for Duda/Alderson but it’s really dependent on how he handles same handed pitching.
He does go very nicely down the LF line against them so as long as he doesn’t try to do too much, too often I’d say he’s got a great chance and don’t forget the difference between their home ball parks either or the fact that Votto’s 28 entering his 5th full season and Duda’s 26 entering his first full one.
A few differences there but not enough to keep you from hoping.
Excellent point Agee. Votto is as complete a LH hitter as there is in baseball.Career 313/405/550 955 OPS is off the charts. I don’t think Duda will put those numbers up but if he’s 280-290/375/525 900. That’s a big time offensive player.
Completely agree Fonzie and if he can hold up his end on D that’s one less hole to plug.
Let’s find out this season if Duda can really live up to Votto’s status. I am not going to predict for this comparison.
Why compare Duda to Votto at this stage of his career?…. give the kid a break..no sense in adding more pressure to him….he seems like a real sensitive guy
10 points awarded to Joe D. for the ability to pluck out a comment off that thread that actually had anything to do with that post.
I actually hate when those in the business compare a young prospect or rookie to some established star.
I’m fine with it. I think sometimes our arrogance as fans actually lead sue to believe we can “add” extra pressure to these guys. I’m pretty sure Duda does not think he’s Joey Votto. And I’m pretty sure Duda doesn’t think Sandy expects him to develop into Joey Votto. To me this is like your boss saying, oh man, I know you’re just starting out…but you remind me of one of the best we’ve ever had.
Some people might freak out and wilt under pressure. But that doesn’t seem like Duda’s personality – the whole stressed out freaking out type. Most likely, I think Duda will do what most of us will do in a similar situation – say thanks boss, and go about his business knowing that not doing his job adequately will mean riding the pine inevitably.
Comparing first seasons is fine but we should add some caution to such an assessment.
Duda was a regular player only in August and September. The rest of the time he was thrown in but did not get regular ABs!
his BA in the first half was .229, His second half is where all the numbers were made and after he played regularly!
In a half of a season the Pitchers did not really have a lot of time and ABs to adjust to him and find a weakness! In September you also face more AAA Callups than regular starters as only the playoff teams keep their regular rotation at that time.
Now I’m not suggesting Duda can’t be as good as Votto nor am I suggesting he can’t be even better!
But I am cautioning that what we saw may be reduced a bit this year when the starters in the league have had more time to work him, had more time to find his weak spot, more time to adjust to him and force him to make an adjustment to compensate!
How fast he can adjust when that happens will determine how well he does this year. If he has an extended slump the way Davis did when he first came up that near .300 BA will drop!
I project him as a .280 hitter on average with 30+ HRs and his OBP will be high because he has the eye but also because of those HR threats!
Plenty good if you ask me!
Even if he’s not another Votto!