Feb
6
2012

Mets Leadoff Hitter, Is It Really A Debate?

An article by Former Writers

Over at Mets Today Joe Janish tries to answer the question of who should be the Mets leadoff hitter now that Jose Reyes and Angel Pagan are gone.

He looks at the players ability to get on base and their ability to maneuver around the base paths, and comes to the conclusion that the Mets might be best to go ths unconventional route and use Jason Bay because of the lack of other options. It is a very difficult question to answer and an even more compelling solution so I wanted to give my own outlook on the situation.

I took a look at the career numbers of every player who hit leadoff during the MLB games from July 1st-3rd, 2011. There was no real rhyme or reason for the dates I picked, but I wound up with the numbers of 41 different players to compare the Mets projected starting eight with.

I was actually shocked with how low the overall OBP the 41 leadoff men had.

.328 is a pretty low number on-base percentage for a leadoff hitter and as the graph shows only one of the Mets projected starters is below that number. The ironic part is that Andres Torres has the most leadoff experience of anyone on the Mets. His career OBP is only .318, but this number was greatly effected by his 2011 season where he batted only .221 with a .312 OBP. In 2009 and 2010 he posted an OBP of .343. I am going to come back to this point later on.

I also wanted to go a little new school at take a look at a sabermetric stat that theoretically is just as important to look at for a leadoff hitter as OBP is.

According to Tom Tango the average hitter should have a .340 wOBA, but the leadoff hitters from the sample averaged just a .319 wOBA. Ruben Tejada and Josh Thole were the only two Mets to fall below that number and both happened to be listed as finalists by Janish for the leadoff spot.

With wOBA as with OBP, David Wright and Jason Bay are right at the top of the list. Janish’s proposal to use an unconventional leadoff hitter looks extremely plausible with these numbers. Both have been the Mets best and most efficient hitters at getting on base over their career and both have respectable speed. After all, as kids the best hitter always bats first and their power would not be a complete waste because they are only guaranteed to come up with the bases empty once a game.

Alden Gonzalez recently tried to point out all eight teams that made the playoffs last year had unconventional leadoff men, but looking at the list the only Corey Hart and Ian Kinsler (and maybe Derek Jeter) are truly unconventional leadoff hitters in my opinion. With that said, those two actually have a relatively similar offensive skill set to Bay and Wright. I would be lying if I said the idea didn’t intrigue me at all.

It is that only other player I’ve really mentioned in this article that I think makes that intriguing idea obsolete.

Neither Bay or Wright have experience at hitting leadoff. For me that is a big deal. It is not so easy to spontaneously change the approach you have used your whole career and start setting the tone at the beginning of a game by watching more pitches than you are used to instead of jumping on the first good pitch you see. Add in the fact that you have two veteran players who have been shaky (to put it kindly) the last few years and I think this is the type of change that can only do more harm than good.

The only player who really has logged a significant amount of hitting leadoff in the majors is the guy who the Mets got back for Angel Pagan—Andres Torres.

As I spoke about earlier Torres’s OBP dropped by .030 points last year fueled by a .050 point drop off in his batting average. The cause for the drop off in his average? Well looking at the numbers it seems like his achilles injury could have had a big part to do with it.

For his career his numbers have been equal hitting from either side of the plate. When he injured his left foot (his plant foot) in 2011 his numbers from the right side dropped off dramatically, while from the left side he only had a marginally small drop off in power. The injury looks to have caused him an inability to drive the ball with authority, which is why his line drive rate fell and consequently his BABIP.

Normally I am not a huge believer in BABIP being a tremendously reliable stat to look at, but Torres slightly improved his walk rate in 2011 and didn’t have any significant increase in strikeouts, so other than the injury being a contributing factor to a lack of power I do not see an obvious reason for his poor season.

Without Reyes the Mets have no perfect leadoff man. What they do have is a man who hit leadoff for a team that won the World Series. He is an aging player yes, but he has patience and is easily the fastest man in the Mets starting eight. Janish made a compelling case to go the unconventional route, but he left Torres out of his argument and that is why I don’t think is much of a debate. As long as Torres was able to heal 100 percent over the off-season and can produce in 2012 like he did in 2009 and 2010, then the leadoff position won’t be a major concern for the Mets in 2012 at least.

About the Author: Former Writers

40 Comments + Add Comment

jessep February 6, 2012 at 9:50 am

I don’t think it makes sense even a little to put Wright or Bay at the #1 spot. They are both guys who need to revive their careers by doing what they did best, and that is driving in runs (while getting on base). You have to let those guys and Ike hit in the middle of the lineup and see if the new fences take away the mindset that they are destined to fail.

I think a lot depends on Tejada’s and Torres’ spring, but I won’t be shocked if we see Murphy at the top. Murphy can drive in runs, but if Bay/Wright/Davis/Duda are operating as they should, you don’t NEED Murph to be a high RBI guy.

I think it’s terrible deceiving to look at a guys #s when he bats 1st in the lineup and say “well that’s how good he is as a leadoff hitter”

For example: Torress batting 1st in 2010 427 AB/111 H/.260 Avg/.332 OBP/.473 SLG/.805 OPS.

But Torres leading off an inning 198 AB, 49 H, .247 Avg, .313 Obp, .490 Slg, .803 OPS.

Bit of a difference there no?

Regardless, I think the 1/2 spot is quit an interesting predicament for Collins.
- any February 6, 2012 at 10:00 am
  
  based on the sample size, no, not really much of a difference!
  
  IMO, looking at all the factors (type of player, experience in the role, “pressure” factors) Torres has to be the logical choice.
  
  I don’t think they will put Tejada there. Enough he is replacing Reyes at SS, i doubt they want to add the additional pressure of trying to replace him at leadoff. Torres, not an issue, plus he has hit leadoff and does have some speed.
  
  Murphy, assuming he is the everyday 2B (and I am not conceding that yet!) I think is best suited in the 2 hole.
  
  I suspect you will see (barring any changes to the starting 8) something like:
  
  Torres/murphy/wright/davis/(bay/duda)/(Duda/bay)/thole/tejada
  - Nick Pugliese February 6, 2012 at 11:03 am
    
    Yeah I pretty much agree with all of this.
    
    I have a hard time seeing Murphy leading off. He is so bad on the basepaths you would never be able to play small ball with him. If he gets on first base then the situation will never occur where he can steal 2nd and get sacrificed to 3rd for an early chance at one run. He has to slot into that 2-7 range depending on who is playing that day/what the matchup is.
    
    Tejada, maybe. Like any said though it might be a little too much too soon for Tejada and I think he would look perfect in the 8 hole because I have a little more faith in him being able to continue a rally and clear the pitcher’s spot than to set the table.
    - trs86 February 6, 2012 at 11:06 am
      
      With the current lineup I hope the days of bunting anyone over are few.
    - Metsie February 6, 2012 at 11:38 am
      
      You forget Sandy’s Sabermetrical beliefs and in Sabers Stealing Bases is not important in fact some Sabermetricians even suggest it is a bad thing to try and do!
      - trs86 February 6, 2012 at 12:38 pm
        
        It depends on your success ratio, situation and player behind you. If you are a guy like Reyes who always waited until the 4-5th pitch to steal then you have to have a very patient guy behind him who excels at either not striking out batting with 2 strikes.
      - Nick Pugliese February 6, 2012 at 5:07 pm
        
        It isn’t even so much needing to steal or bunt, but I think it is important to at least have the threat of those two things at the top otherwise you are limiting yourself offensively.
        
        Pitchers aren’t going to fear Murphy stealing and won’t (a) have to worry about the threat of a steal and can focus solely on the hitter and (b) because they don’t fear the steal it decreases the number of fastballs your best hitters see.
        
        And even if those two things are only affected in the slightest, that could be a couple wins a year.
  - Fonzie13 February 6, 2012 at 3:43 pm
    
    I would go with Davis,Wright,Duda and Bay as 3,4,5,6. I want Davis,my best hitter gauranteed of a 1st inning at bat and Bay doesn’t deserve to hit ahead of any of the other 3 based on his last 2 years. The other positions I would agree as long as Torres is not an automatic out in ST games.
oldtimer February 6, 2012 at 9:19 am

Oh boy, a 220 hitter batting leadoff. Good luck,Terry.
K Maxx February 6, 2012 at 9:23 am

I have a hard time believing Torres will even be the starting center fielder beyond April let alone the leadoff hitter. For a GM who supposedly values OBP, Alderson’s done a pretty poor job after two full offseasons running this team. Luckily we have Minaya holdovers like Tejada and Murphy who might be able to be the table setters until we get some help from the farm. I read somewhere this weekend that NL scouts see Torres as nothing more than a 5th outfielder. Looking at his age, ability, numbers and career, I would agree.
- Donal February 6, 2012 at 9:45 am
  
  #2 in OBP in the NL last year. Also, Torres was brought in more for his defensive prowess with Duda in right.
  - K Maxx February 6, 2012 at 10:03 am
    
    You must be lost in another universe if you haven’t yet realized that the OBP was a product of Reyes and Beltran. You seem to be a big numbers guy, why don’t you tell us what the OBP was without those two?
    
    The team that excelled in OBP last year was Minaya’s players. In fact the players Alderson bought in made the Mets OBP worse in 2012: Chin Lung Hu, Brad Emaus, Ronny Paulino, Willie Harris, Scott Hairston.
    
    Without those five players the Mets would have had an even higher OBP.
    - K Maxx February 6, 2012 at 10:04 am
      
      Meant to say in 2011.
    - any February 6, 2012 at 10:08 am
      
      still with the Hu and Emaus crap? What did they get, 75 Abs between them?
      
      and they were all bench players that aren’t expected to have a super high OBP anyway, or get that many ABs.
      
      And FWIW, Tejada put up a similar OBP to reyes (might have been even higher in the 2ns half), And Duda put up an OBP as good as Beltrans after Carlos left. So at least in those 2 cases, there was not a real dropoff.
      - K Maxx February 6, 2012 at 10:29 am
        
        I dont care about Hu or Emaus, I only brought them up because Donal seemed to think these current Mets are #2 in OBP and we have no problem. We do have a problem if you are going to rely on data that included MVP-like seasons from Beltran and Reyes.
        
        What I originally said was that for a GM who said he loves OBP, he hasn’t shown it yet in the last two offseasons. You have three choices Any. You can agree, disagree or deflect (that happens a lot with some people here), the choice is yours.
        
        Oh and by the way, Emaus was not a bench player, he was brought here to be the everyday starting second baseman and Hui was traded for to backup Jose Reyes. Thank God, we had Tejada and Turner waiting in the wings who were sent to Triple-A to start the season despite awful showings by Hu and Emaus in St. Lucie. Let’s also be grateful for Murphy.
        
        trs86 February 6, 2012 at 10:41 am
        
        OK I will play, based on my count taking those two out you get around a .322 OBP which would be good for tied for 6th… Also that is not really accurate in the fact because you did not have significant playing time from Davis, Duda, Tejada and Murphy for the entire year. So in summary we have no idea how this team would have finished in terms of OBP without those 2.
        
        Donal February 6, 2012 at 10:48 am
        
        Emawas not awful in ST. None of the players competing for the 2B stood out. Turner had options and Emaus didn’t. Also, Tejada looked compeltely overwhelmed by big league pitching in 2010.
        
        And Hu wasn’t competing for the 2B job. He was there as a late inning defensive replacement . It was a different role. He should have never have been in the starting line up. Do you get upset about the bullpen’s OBP as well? Because it is pretty much the same idea.
        
        When you have to scramble for 5 guys who together had about 700 PAs, your point is weak. you just need to come to terms with it. You’re crying over bench players. Maybe if the catching situation wasn’t so crappy, Paulino would have gotten a lot fewer PAs.
        
        And Willie Harris’ OBP was .351.
    - Donal February 6, 2012 at 10:37 am
      
      Except Beltran played <100 games for them and Reyes spent most of July and August on the DL. Their contributions got them to #2, but the team OBP overall was pretty good.
      
      Also, the starter with the lowest OBP (Minaya holdover angel Pagan) has been traded. Plus, they should have a full season of Ike and some combo of Murphy and Wright.
      
      OBP shouldn't be a problem and now there is a little more pop in the line up.
- any February 6, 2012 at 9:46 am
  
  I agree that Torres is not look at as the LT guy. If anything that trade was pagan for ramirez, and Torres was a throw in to give the mets a stop gap to fill CF. And they aren’t expecting much offense out of him, rather they want someone that can cover ground out there.
  
  most likely he is just a placeholder until someone else steps up and earns a shot at the job. Kirk, Den Dekker, etc. Might be this year, might not be until next, but Torres is most likely just keeping the positin warm.
trs86 February 6, 2012 at 9:29 am

“Mets Leadoff Hitter, Is It Really A Debate?”
“It is a very difficult question to answer and an even more compelling solution so I wanted to give my own outlook on the situation.”

OK so it’s not really a debate but is a difficult question to answer? I am confused.
- Nick Pugliese February 6, 2012 at 10:49 am
  
  Yeah I probably didn’t word those the best ways possible, but essentially the second line you quoted was supposed to be act as intro to the post saying “when I read Janish’s post it seemed like the leadoff spot was going to be a hard question to answer” But then the article is supposed to show when I went and took a look at things his idea was interesting but the fact that he left Torres out of the discussion made everything obsolete because Torres is the only legitimate option we have.
mtsfaninparadise February 6, 2012 at 9:58 am

The problem with using only OBA (or any similar individual statistic) is that it doesn’t address the player’s other skills. Even if Ike Davis had the highest OBA on the team he’d still be more valuable in a slugging position in the lineup because he has greater value there. This means that the rest of the lineup has to be considered too. If Jeter played for a poor offensive club odds are he’d be hitting 3rd, but the Yankees have plenty of Canos and Teixeiras and Rodriguezes and Swishers to fill those spots so he can be spared. To maximize the potential of a lineup you have to consider how each player, not just the leadoff hitter, can make his greatest contribution
- Bayonne Mets Fan February 6, 2012 at 3:46 pm
  
  and you needed OBA to tell you this?
  
  Unbelievable
Alex68 February 6, 2012 at 10:04 am

again, thanks to sandy aldersn the savvy GM we now have to see andres torres, a guy who couldn’t keep a job in the WORST OFFENSIVE team in the majors bat leadoff for the new york mets.. and by the way, you can give me all the OBP you want, what good does it do when the guys who are supposed to be the ones driving the runs are known to be chokers in good spots..
Alex68 February 6, 2012 at 10:08 am

and of course, some idi-ot who’s a sabermetric lover, comes out with a comment trying to defend this move by alderson by trying to use numbers to deviate from the conversation.kinda like that stupid article about how BRAD EAMUS was gonna be great and how his OBP was a thing a beauty etc.. . funny how some people try to use #’s when they feel it’s needed.. memo to all, andres torres is a bum.. but hey, here’s numbers as a leadoff and leading off.. maybe he would not be such a bad players if we add some numbers here and there…
- Nick Pugliese February 6, 2012 at 10:38 am
  
  You definitely did not even read what I wrote. No where in that article did I say Torres was a great player. All I did was cal him a stop gap solution to the leadoff position.
  
  You also make it sound like the same Angel Pagan who hit .262 and looked awful in center field last year was so valuable Alderson made a horrid mistake shipping him out in a two for one deal.
  - trs86 February 6, 2012 at 10:43 am
    
    Of course he made a horrible move. Any move he makes is horrible, yet some proclaim all we do is praise him. I can’t remember the last time I even said he did a good job.
- Alex68 February 6, 2012 at 12:00 pm
  
  Nick, i wasn’t refering to you, but to some other idi-ot who tries to justify sandy alderson’s moves by bringing the phantom numbers noone cares about to pretend the player is somehow good.. i mean, seriously, how good or great can a guy be if he hits 220?? but to people who like numbers, his OBP which was horrible as well it’s what matters here, so that is why you see numbers like him leading off and as a lead off hitter..
  - trs86 February 6, 2012 at 12:07 pm
    
    Alex, I have a question for you. I think Torres is also a 4/5 OF before we even start this discussion. However, should we only look at his 2011 to judge his ability or inability? Does that mean we should only look at 2010 for Reyes and Beltran? I know they are much better so lets take Pagan… should we look at his 2011 and not his 2010? How about Rick Ankiel? Perhaps Omar should have just went off Tatis and Valentin’s previous year? Or Dickey? Point is that players do have the ability to rebound and if he does then you get a capable place holder if he does not then you throw him away and find the next piece of Pagan I mean junk to throw in.
    
    The deal was never about Torres, it was about acquiring the best pitcher in the BP.
srt February 6, 2012 at 10:21 am

Don’t know who will be in the lead off spot come opening day.

But I’m willing to bet we beat our own record on how many different lineup cards TC puts together by the time it’s all said and done. No one seems to have an established place in the order right now.
- K Maxx February 6, 2012 at 10:33 am
  
  That’s exactly what Collins will be forced to do especially now that he inherits an offense that is even worse than the one he had last spring. He’ll do whatever he can to find a successful solution that results in more success, but it wont be easy. Collins has the toughest job of all because he’s the one charged with getting results from a team that has been downgraded two offseasons in a row.
DaveUpstateNY February 6, 2012 at 10:23 am

Boy oh boy. They’ll try Torres and he’ll hit .240. They’ll try the bench players and they’ll hit .240. They’ll sign Mike Cameron for his “experience, power and glove” and he’ll hit .240.
- trs86 February 6, 2012 at 10:44 am
  
  Wouldn’t that be a little high for Cameron?
t agee February 6, 2012 at 10:45 am

I’m just happy that the Giants aren’t satisfied with just having had a chance to win.

.
- any February 6, 2012 at 11:12 am
  
  That’s why you play the games and don’t decide on paper before the season starts.
Metsie February 6, 2012 at 11:00 am

If anyone has paid attention you would have known that Terry Collins intends to start Murphy as the leadoff hitter!
- trs86 February 6, 2012 at 11:05 am
  
  I am fine with that but where have you read that to be the case?
  If it is then I expect to see
  Murphy, Tejada, Davis, Wright, Duda, Bay, Thole, Torres or
  What would be out of the box
  Murphy, Bay, Davis, Wright, Duda, Tejada, Thole, Torres.
  
  Personally I would rather have Davis bat 4th but to do that you have to have a rebound from Bay and something warranting him to be ahead of Duda IMO.
  - Metsie February 6, 2012 at 11:36 am
    
    Collins said it on Hot Stove and recently on the same show Murphy was asked about what Collins said!
    
    Collins suggested it because of his OBP and patience at the plate!
    
    More likely it will be:
    Murphy
    Tejada
    Duda
    Wright
    Davis
    Bay
    Thole
    CF
    
    With thole and CF swapping now and then.
    If Torres is the CF he will defintly bat before the Pitcher so we have some speed to bunt with and to be on base for the top of the order.
Alex68 February 6, 2012 at 11:38 am

guys, at least we did not give up any draft picks… right agee???? SMH!
- trs86 February 6, 2012 at 12:36 pm
  
  Are you saying with this year’s team in mind that they should have?

NL East Standings

Team	W	L	Pct.	GB
Braves	42	30	.583	-
Phillies	35	37	.486	7.0
Nationals	34	36	.486	7.0
Mets	27	40	.403	12.5
Marlins	22	48	.314	19.0

Last updated: 06/19/2013

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