29
2012
Kirk Nieuwenhuis: What’s His Timetable/Window?
An article by Former Writers
Andrew Keh wrote a great piece the other day about Kirk Nieuwenhuis‘s window with the Mets organization. He talks about the veteran stop gaps blocking Nieuwenhuis at the moment and other prospects, such as Matt Den Dekker and Brandon Nimmo, who will be right on his tail.
Personally I think very highly of Nieuwenhuis and have him rated as the Mets No. 6 prospect. I’ve said numerous times I feel if he had not gotten hurt last year, he would be already be penciled in as the starter of this team for 2012. This makes for the perfect opportunity to take a closer look at his window of opening and timetable with the Mets.
The Andres Torres Threat
Torres is widely considered the “throw in” in the Angel Pagan/Ramon Ramirez deal, but I am not entirely convinced that was Sandy Alderson’s full ideology on the deal.
Two things were evident about the two center fielders included in the deal. Pagan looked lost in the outfield of Citi Field and Torres’s defensive prowess is no secret. Out of all the players to log at least 450 innings (50 games) in center field last year, Torres ranked fourth in UZR/150 at 17.3. For his career his UZR/150 in center field is 12.8 and to put these numbers into perspective, a UZR/150 over 15 is considered “gold glove” and a UZR/150 over 10 is considered “great”.
For those who like more conventional stats, he has committed just six errors in 783 chances (.993 fielding%) and has 20 outfield assists including 13 over the last two years. Not too shabby.
It is easy to see this guy can field his position very, very well and I think that was a large motivation for Sandy. He wanted to try and solidify a weak defensive outfield by acquiring an elite defender for the position that is supposed to be the commanding general of the outfield.
That doesn’t bode well for Nieuwenhuis’s window for two reasons.
The first reason is of his own abilities. At a solid 6’3″, 215 lbs. the reasons for the question marks about his defense are obvious. I’ve seen Nieuwenhuis make some sensational plays, he has a good arm, and his defensive numbers in the minors, like range factor, are pretty good. It wouldn’t shock me if he could play a respectable center field at the next level, but the track record for guys his size isn’t necessarily a ringing endorsement.
The list of center fielders from last year who have a comparable build to Nieuwenhuis is not a good one, defensively that is. Last year Alex Rios (6’5, 205 lbs.) had a -7.4 UZR/150, Matt Kemp (6’3, 220 lbs.) had a -4.7 UZR/150, Colby Rasmus (6’2, 220lbs.) -10.7, and Marlon Byrd (6’0, 245 lbs.) was the lone exception with a 3.0 UZR/150.
Add in the fact that at least two, if not three, of those guys are more athletic than Nieuwenhuis and the odds of him being even an average defender in center look slim.
The reason I am mentioning all of this in the Torres section is that if Sandy brought in Torres to help cover up Lucas Duda‘s defensive woes, he might not want to entertain the idea of throwing Nieuwenhuis in an outfield that already has two below-average fielders.
The second reason is this guy…
The Matt Den Dekker Threat
The one question no one has about Den Dekker is how well he will able to field. Questions about is ability to make contact? Sure. Questions about his ability to get on base consistently? Sure. Questions about how well he can use his speed on the base paths? Sure. But he is going to be able to contribute to a team a near Gold Glove caliber defense, or at the very least well above-average defense, in center field. A very valuable trait and one working against Nieuwenhuis.
Den Dekker is just three days younger than Nieuwenhuis so while he may be a full level behind, Kirk will not have a large window to show his value if and when the Mets do give him a shot. The odds are once Nieunwehuis is promoted to the big league club then Den Dekker will take his spot and join Buffalo, unless he shows no improvement on the 29% strikeout rate he had in Binghamton last year.
And when it comes to comparisons, I am not sure Den Dekker’s skill set is all that different than Torres’s. So if Torres was a little more than just a throw in for Alderson then having a younger, cheaper, slightly better defensive Torres waiting in the wings will put a lot of pressure on Nieuwenhuis to produce quickly.
The Brandon Nimmo Threat
I fail to see how he is a threat at all to Nieuwenhuis so I’m not sure why Keh mentions him. Nimmo is so far away and no guarantee to stick in center field himself so he really won’t have any effect on Nieunwehuis’s window with the Mets.
The Whole Picture
Nieuwenhuis’s timetable to reach the bigs will depend on (1) how his spring goes and (2) the first month and a half of the season. Kirk is going to have to show over that time that his shoulder is fully healed and if Torres is putting up numbers closer to his 2011 level instead of his 2010 level there will definitely be a clamoring for change.
His window, however, is only narrowly open. I think Captain Kirk is capable of putting up numbers offensively equivalent to, if not better than, the ones Torres will put up this year, but if the defensive configuration of three question marks is going poorly he may only have until September when the Mets choose to give Den Dekker a cup of coffee and at the latest early-to-mid 2013. It is a tough situation for an underrated prospect like Nieuwenhuis to be in, but I love what he had to say about the situation.
“The more pressure you put on yourself, the smaller the window becomes, performance-wise,” Nieuwenhuis said. “I think just playing my game is the best way for me to extend that window.”
I for one will be cheering that he shows his defense can play in a stadium like Citi Field.
About the Author: Former Writers
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I could live with him taking the PT away from Bay vs. RHP. Preferably in RF.
Otherwise, if Torres doesn’t hit, then give him a shot.
That is what I was wondering. If Torres hits, but Bay doesn’t, platoon Duda in LF and put Kirk in RF.
except Duda is a bigger bat, so I would put Duda in LF and platoon the other 2 in RF. But, that’s just me.
Pagan’s defense was outstanding in 2010 and that doesn’t go away in one off season. I have no explanation for 2011 but the year before he was a hawk.
Torres was a way to at least handle a CFer’s primary responsibilities for anywhere from 3 months to two years with no long term commitment and take care of an important piece in the pen at the same time.
The primary benefit imo in moving the fences is to give Kirk every conceivable chance to stay in CF. That move helps him more than any other player offensively and defensively throughout the entire system. Bay’s not long for this team, Duda didn’t need the fences in and either did Davis Offensively. Leaving them where they were would actually have been an advantage for us.
I think the idea for whenever it can be implemented is for Kirk to start in CF and replace Duda in which ever corner OF spot he settles into while bringing Torres or Den Dekker on in CF in the late innings of a game we’re leading. That could always change if Den Dekker get’s his K’s under control.
Nimmo right now has to be considered a long shot to even make it here and if he does it will be more like 2015 and almost certainly in RF. He’s more in the mix with Ceccilini, Puello and Vaughn who really aren’t in the conversation until 2014 at least. In the meantime Lagares has the best chance of all after Kirk and I’d love it if he was given a chance to play CF when/if Den Dekker goes to AAA but he needs to work on his K’s as well.
Plenty of options and all remain open while their sorting themselves out.
It’ quite simple and no mystery what happened to Pagan’s defense last year!
He carried his BAT out onto the field with him!
He got hurt and went into a slump, The Slump started the ball rolling on the tinkering of his swing, He lost focus and that focus went out into CF with him!
Anyone could see what the problem was!
Most of his bonehead moves were right after a failed AB where he tried to make up for that AB and made fielding mistakes to make up for that!
It was all in the head much like Wright and Bay’s troubles with the fences!
What this team needs is a shrink!
Could be right but I think that also speaks to the fact that the Mets along with his previous organizations did not feel like maturity was a strong point.
Pagan in the first half f 2010 didn’t have to share the outfield with Beltran. I really think that had something to do with it. He for whatever reason looks up to Beltran, now he replaced him at his position while Beltran was playing RF. I think Pagan didn’t take charge when it came to Beltran and it hurt him all year in 2011 even after Beltran was gone.
It’s nice having a problem with too many (potential) options at a position.
Depends on the position. We’ve had a lot of potential 1B waiting.
Always a little scary to have two rookies in the OF – especially when one (Duda) has little experience in RF. Needing a good, experienced defense body in CF would be optimum.
However, with the projections for this team in 2012 probably as good a time as any to see what Captain Kirk can bring to the table without sacrificing our top spot in the NL east.
That is the one (or one of the few?) positives about a rebuilding/low expectation year. You can get some of the learning curve and growing pains out of the way.
It surprises me how no one has really caught onto how weak we are defensively up the middle.
Torres might be good in CF but his Bat is going to be the issue here.
Considering we have a 2B who isn’t really a 2B and will not get to as many grounders up the middle as even Castillo did, it’s probably not wise to have a slower CF behind him to back that up. A steal of 2B could easily turn into a runner on 3rd in that situation!
I fully expect to see Hairston trolling CF a lot early this season at least until Kirk comes up.
And you have to ask yourself is it worth beaming him up if he is not going to play everyday?
Could do little for us and harm to Kirk’s development!
A lot will depend on Bay I suspect. If they can trade him (unlikely) or the fences seem to have little affect, I can see them moving Duda to LF and throwing Kirk into right with that strong arm of his!
Going from CF to RF is not that hard and it eases him into the lineup.
If he starts tearing the cover off the ball there then his defense in CF will be much less an issue! And we can move him there then!
I expect them to stick mostly with Torres until a replacement is brought in or up. The only thing I see happening with Torres to start with is moving down in the order if he struggles.
I still don’t understand why Torres is penciled in when we have Kirk. Kirk can play a decent CF and if he can hit like he’s shown we greatly improve our outfield. If Kirk has a good spring we should sit/release Torres and play with Kirk.
I have a question concerning Captain Kirk’s timetable. Within this question are a few hypothetical situations, so please bear with me. “If” Torres does a good enough job at CF to keep his position throughout the year, and “if” Van Dekker continues to make enough strides and claim post to the position sometime near the beginning of the 13 season, then it would seem to leave Nieuwenheis in a tough spot. Still, it would seem that his talents could be servicable for some other major league team and that there would be interest for him. However, it seems that the Mets are more in the current position to trade for prospects as opposed to trading away prospects, and I rarely hear of the swapping of prospects from team to team. Can anyone share their thoughts with me of what might realistically happen to Captain Kirk if the hypothetical situations mentioned above do come true? Thanks guys!
He could be part of a trade, and also very possible he could get shifted over to the corner.
Using your scenario (2013) how about Duda moves to LF, Den Dekker in CF, and Kirk in RF? Or if bay is still here, Kirk platoons with him on one corner. or ends up as a 4th OF that gets a lot of PT.
By 2014 there will be another starting spot no matter what, since bay will be gone by then.
what I would like to see is converting some of the (potential/hopefully!) backlog of ready for the show players into guys that play position of need (like, catcher).
that is also a good reason to stock up on as much pitching as possible. Maybe a deal of a SP prospect + Kirk for a strong catching prospect? something along those lines.