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2012
If There Is A 5th Playoff Spot, Can Mets Contend?
An article by 
Today was supposed to be the deadline that MLB Commissioner Bud Selig finalized the plans to expand the playoff structure to include two wild card teams.
However, scheduling and logistics remain areas open for debate, which has halted the process.
Still, if MLB agrees to expand the postseason, it increases each team’s chances by one spot. The two wild card teams would play a one-game playoff to see who advances to the Division Series.
Where do the 2012 Mets stack up in the discussion if the NL playoffs were to include five instead of four teams?
Just looking at the NL East, many analysts have slated the Mets to finish last in the division. That is partly because of the current team on paper, but it’s also a result of the strengths of the other four teams. The Marlins and Nationals have improved, while the Phillies and Braves—the top two teams from 2011—have remained basically the same.
All four of these teams have a legitimate chance to trump the Mets for a spot in the postseason.
In the NL Central, the Cardinals still look like the favorite even without Albert Pujols. The Brewers lost Prince Fielder and are facing a possible 50-game suspension from Ryan Braun but still have solid pitching.
The Reds may turn a few heads this season, but they are a team like the Mets in that many different factors have to be perfect for them to contend all season.
The Pirates and Cubs are still rebuilding, and the Astros shouldn’t be a factor in their final year in the NL.
The NL West may be interesting. The Diamondbacks are fresh off a division title, but the Giants are hungry to repeat their 2010 success. The Rockies will rely on many inexperienced starting pitchers, while the Dodgers and Padres figure to bring up the rear in the division.
So if I had to rank the NL teams based on what they look like on paper, here’s my ranking: Phillies, Cardinals, Giants, Marlins, Diamondbacks, Brewers, Braves, Nationals, Reds, Mets, Rockies, Dodgers, Pirates, Cubs, Padres and Astros.
The Mets are 10th based on this ranking, so they would have to finish ahead of five other competitive teams to earn that final spot.
Doing so would likely be a tall order this season, if this playoff structure were to be accepted. But since the Mets play in a tough division, maybe the new playoff structure can help them down the road, when the team figures to be back on track.
But hey, I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: You have to play the games. Maybe we are in store for a few surprises—not just from the Mets but from any of the NL teams.
About the Author: Jim Mancari
Jim Mancari hails from Massapequa, N.Y. He recently earned a Master's degree in Journalism at Hofstra University. He is a devout Mets fan and takes pride in his team, despite their lack of success over the last few years. Like all Mets fans, Jim has plenty of hope. He also writes as the sports reporter for the Brooklyn Tablet newspaper and the senior editor of metroBASEBALL Magazine. Click my name to view my personal website.
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NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 25 | 18 | .581 | - |
| Nationals | 23 | 21 | .523 | 2.5 |
| Phillies | 21 | 23 | .477 | 4.5 |
| Mets | 17 | 24 | .415 | 7.0 |
| Marlins | 12 | 32 | .273 | 13.5 |
Last updated: 05/19/2013
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Hey Jim, nice job here.
Spring Training has to happen before I really make a serious prediction but to answer your question, an extra playoff spot helps the Mets of course.
Your order: Phillies, Cardinals, Giants, Marlins, Diamondbacks, Brewers, Braves, Nationals, Reds, Mets, Rockies, Dodgers, Pirates, Cubs, Padres and Astros.
My order (more gut instinct): PHI, ATL, MIA, STL, WAS, ARI, SF, CIN, NYM, MIL, CHC, COL, SD, PIT, LA, HOU.
So you have the Mets 10th to my 9th. I think the loss of Prince paired with the potential loss of Braun for 50 could lead to a tough year in Milwaukee. Corey Hart cannot lead that team.
The one thing with Washington is there outlook rests solely on Strasburg’s health. No other team in the NL can have their hopes and dreams squashed with 1 injury prone player like WAS can.
So your NL playoffs as of now would be
Phi-Stl-Sf-Mia-Ari
Mine would be
Phi-Stl-Ari-Atl-Mia
Lets check back around Opening Day though!
There would need to at least a 12 playoff spots in the NL for the Mets to contend for one this year.
We will be contending for the worst record in the NL with the Pirates and the Astros!
This team is a cellar dwellar this year!
Unfortunately, you are right my friend. It will be a long summer but hopefully our injured come back and perform well while the future pitching prospects continue their growth so that 2013 is something we can look forward to!
sure they can if they finally get everything to break positively this year (to make up for the last 3!)
The Mets have had so much bad luck over the last 5 years, they’re bound to finally have some good luck. The law of averages says so. Anyway I go: Cardinals, Phillies, Marlins, Giants, Nationals, Diamondbacks, Braves, Reds, Mets, Rockies, Dodgers, Brewers, Pirates, Cubs, Padres and Astros.
I am guessing you are taking Braun’s 50-game suspension into consideration for the Brewers?
yes, no player has ever won their appeal of a banned substance suspension and Braun failed two tests, not one.
Him not being there for 50-games is going to be a huge blow to their offense, but they still have Ramirez, Weeks, Morgan and Hart to hold them over while Braun waits it out. That coupled with Greinke, Gallardo, Marcum and Wolf and a closing tandem of K-Rod and Axford and they are a better team than many people think even without Fielder and partially Braun.
I have them (The Mets) ranked 12th in the NL…ahead of The Padres and Astros.
Let’s say Pelfrey, Gee and Niese put together mid-3 ERA campaigns, and all else go well, sure they could compete.
I would probably rank the NL like this: Phillies, Cardinals, Marlins, Diamondbacks, Giants, Nationals, Reds, Braves, Brewers, Mets, Dodgers, Rockies, Cubs, Pirates, Padres, Astros
Considering that Gee has not even pitched a minor league season with an ERA below 4.10 since 2008 and in Niese’s first 2 full MLB seasons, he has proved that his productivity ends at August 26 (look it up, its eerie), and Pelfrey, well, Pelfrey is Pelfrey…Let’s say, show me something before I go saying these guys are capable of mid-3 ERA campaigns. I mean, let’s say, Andres Torres is the next Willie Mays, they could compete then, too.
Hi Jim,
Pittsburgh and Chicago still in the rebuilding stage? Is that a hint of things to come for us over the next few years?
One point that has been overlooked — how can the Mets have a good year with the Wilpons bound to hold another fire sale again this July? Whatever positive Terry and his crew accomplish the first half of the season, expect them to again be undermined under the guise of obtaining good young prospects for rebuilding.
That’s what I meant about a hint of things to come referring to Pittsburgh and Chicago.
Sorry but the Marlins are still not that good. No chance they are better than the Reds.
I agree with Chris about the Marlins, at least going into the season.
On paper they look greatly improved, however, how well the new players interact with each other and play as a cohesive unit is something we don’t know yet. Who knows how Ramirez’s disruptive attitude will play out with these other new highly paid free agents. Will he create friction with Jose moving him away from the shortstop position? How many games could he cost the fish with his lax play?
I have the braves in the playoffs (Roll eyes)… Not a lot of teams recover from those types of choke j0obs.. just ask the mets .. in the end it will not matter, marlins will be taking over..
I think people are a little too in love with the D-Backs and Marlins. And a lot of folks are sleeping on the Nats and Reds.
I agree with you Donal. First I keep seeing the Mets pegged here by some at 60-70 win team. For me, I’ll take their roster over MIL, CHC, COL, SD, PIT, LA, HOU (MIL assuming Braun is out, close call between them to be honest)
The reason I ranked Miami 3rd is probably different than why others have, but I agree 100% that when you have a lot of new faces, success is no guarantee. I personally think Stanton/LoMo are going to have big years.
I’d bet a lot of $ on Reyes going on the DL which will be an interesting test for Ozzie, does he move Hanley to SS for that time or stick to his guns?
Josh Johnson is a huge, huge factor here. When healthy, I’d put him in a matchup against any NL starter including Halladay (not saying he’d win every time but I’d feel just fine)
If you actually look around the NL, they are a VERY young league. So on paper, Miami’s roster looks better than most in the NL but intangibles will come into play
Kennedy’s going to regress, but even if it’s a normal regression, they still have three #2′s all with ace potential at the top. That’ll be hard for anyone to beat. The Marlins are all hype. I think 2013 is the year of the Nats, but they could win 85 games this season.
Not me. I picked the Reds-Yanks WS matchup.
Marlins WS Champions… all hype? yeah, give me all hype instead of a pathetic roster..
Worked out great for the Jets.
My question is; how do you define “contending”? Does that mean that within the final two weeks of the season they are within reasonable (three games out) of a playoff spot? or by the trade deadline, they are within five games of a playoff spot? Or Maybe by the ASB they are within five games of a playoff spot? Or maybe they never fall below 500% after the first couple of weeks on the season?
My thinking is that contending is being within five games of a playoff spot between the ASB and the trade dead line. Basically because that’s the time you know what teams are legitimate and are looking to improve by adding pieces vs let’s say, trading your best hitter and your closer.
So Alderson made the decision last year that they weren’t going to contend and decided that saving money was the smart decision. If he didn’t trade away Beltran and KRod and seeing how the Braves tanked at the end, the Mets might of had a chance to contend…of course, they could of still fallen short and they’d be stuck with KRod’s contract and not have gotten anything for Beltran. In the poker game of baseball, Sandy folded and walked away. I’m sure we could have a bitter and name calling argument over if this was the correct move.
So to answer the question of 2012, I think there is a chance to “contend” but a lot of things have to fall into place and they need a lot of bounce backs and luck, but it could happen. Unfortunately, seeing how difficult the start of the season is, the Mets could be in a BIG hole in July. But having a difficult start usually means your 2nd half is easier…it is, so if the Mets could be around 500% by mid season, they could have a strong 2nd half push. The real problem is, the Mets are a mediocre team in a very strong division, so their playing tough teams all season long and comparable teams in the weaker divisions will have the advantage.
Nice point about contention. Some think that the Mets were actually in contention when Beltran and Krod were traded last year. I say they had no chance in hell… I guess it depends on the person.
I personally think that the Mets were on the border of contending when the trade(s) happened.
They were over .500 when K-Rod was traded… after the bad start, the Mets were playing good ball at the time…Reyes and Beltran and Murph were playing great…We were expecting Wright,Ike and Santana to come back and give them a boost.
But at the same time, who knew that the Braves would tank like that?
Sadly, things went bad after the trades, the Pen fell apart, Santana and Ike never came back, Wright wasn’t that good and Reyes, Murphy, Izzy and Neise lost time to injuries.
So while I think they could have “contended” if they “went for it”…even if things worked out…they still would have fallen short, or at best, lost in the 1st round of the playoffs.
I guess the questions would be, would attendance be better if the Mets were “contending”? and how would the fan base feel on about the team (and Alderson) if they played well in the 2nd half?
Phillies, Cardinals, Giants, Marlins, Diamondbacks, Brewers, Braves, Nationals, Reds, Mets, Rockies, Dodgers, Pirates, Cubs, Padres and Astros.
Phillies (man I am not sure on this one anymore, their age, declining offense and tougher league may limit those 95+ win seasons. Question is how long is Howard out and how effective when he returns?)
Giants, I just don’t think the West will be as strong. I don’t see Arizona being back to the same level and I think the Giants with a more healthy offense will turn the division quickly.
Reds, will it work this year? They were the sexy pick last year and bottomed up. I think adding the spots they have will be huge and will take the central.
I would go with the Cards next just because I expect the rest of the Central to be putrid.
Then I think you can honestly lump the Marlins, Braves, and Nationals in the same. I agree with Alex’s point on will there be any carry over from the collapse for the Braves? However, are the Marlins or Nats ready to win yet either?
I would let the Dbacks fall to here. Again with them playing in the West they may get more wins but that will depend on the Rockies who I expect to rebound as well as the Dodgers.
So not looking at the problems of the other teams I would go
Phillies, Giants, Reds, Cards, Braves, Marlins, Nats, Dbacks, Rockies, Dodgers, Mets, Pirates, Cubs, Padres, Astros.