20
2012
2012 New York Mets Organizational Draft Focus
An article by 
With all the mock drafts coming out these days, there is plenty of information surfacing about who the top picks will be, and what their budding skill-sets are like. But what about the Mets? What sort of draft strategy will suit them best heading into the MLB Amateur Draft of 2012?
There is the old school acumen of: “take the best available player each time you pick regardless of position.” But that goes by the assumption that all things are equal. From rounds three on in the draft, all the players pretty much are equal, without much difference as far as projection, and similar chances at development. So why not draft for need, while at the same time taking the best athlete available? In the Mets minor league system, things are far from equal. Some fans really love the direction the organization is heading in regards to the farm system, but that doesn’t mean that they are where they need to be by any means. There is a long way to go. Look at it as the glass is half full, for all you incorrigible optimists out there. The fact is, there are key areas where this organization absolutely must increase the talent pool.
Why haven’t the Mets moved up in the farm system rankings, despite the fact that they have had good drafts, and improved over the last two years? Why are they still ranked in the middle? Or even by some extremely biased anti-Met journalists, one of which recently ranked the Mets system 22nd, or 24th or some such ludicrous thing? That is going a little too far in one’s prejudice against the Mets franchise, but everyone’s entitled to their opinion, even when they’re wrong.
Unfortunately, in the highly competitive environment in which the Mets operate, other teams are improving as fast or faster than the they are, while at the same time established teams like the Braves, Rays, Giants, Angels, and Rangers remain organizationally strong, and merely must maintain their talent pool. This keeps the Mets anchored securely somewhere in the middle-of-the-pack.
As far as drafting the “best available athlete,” the Mets don’t have the luxury of being in that position yet. They have far too many holes in their minor league system, big enough that you could drive a truck through. Huge smoldering craters where lots of talent ought to be residing, but instead you have a fringy prospect or two, at best. What areas are the weakest in the system? Only three of the four most difficult areas from which to harvest talent, and areas of extreme importance to any well balanced team. I am speaking of course, of the following positions: Catcher, Shortstop, Centerfield, and left-handed starting pitching.
Even though the 25-man major league roster has a gaping hole in CF, the Mets have some minor league talent already in place for the position, including Captain Kirk, Brandon Nimmo, Matt den Dekker, Darrell Ceciliani, Tillman Pugh, and Joe Tuschak. And they have a somewhat rich history of developing fine center fielders, with the likes of: Lee Mazzilli, Mookie Wilson, and Lenny Dykstra. So center is not a weak spot any longer. But what of the other three areas? Let’s take a closer look:
CATCHER
With a flawed incumbent occupying the catcher position on the big league level, perhaps no area in the entire organization needs an upgrade as desperately as back-stop. It is the most difficult position on the diamond to develop players at, the most physically demanding, arguably the most important other than the pitcher, and the one position that loses candidates by attrition more often than any other.
The Mets have virtually ignored the catching position for years, and years, and years. For their whole history as a matter of fact. Let’s see, you really can’t count Jerry Grote, since he came in a trade from the Astros, and had been developed by them. Piazza Dodgers, Carter Expos, hmmm. Other than Thole, who have the Mets developed? Help me out here: Stearns? Nope. He came from Philadelphia. Well, there was Todd Hundley, great catcher for a coupla years until he ruined his elbow. Oh, I got one, Ron Hodges, ‘ol number 42. Sweet lefty singles stroke, good catch-and-throw guy. Except he was a back-up. Duffy Dyer, another back-up. Mike Fitzgerald anybody?
Needless to say, we haven’t exactly been the Yankees when it comes to finding catchers, that’s for sure. Who’s here already? Well there’s Albert Cordero who is showing some offensive and defensive promise, and will play at High-A ball this year. There’s Juan Centeno, who will play at AA this year. Juan’s a good catch-and-throw guy, who has made good contact, in very limited opportunities. In five seasons in the Mets farm system he has only averaged about 99 AB’s per year, so he really needs to get an extended opportunity to even know if they have anything there at all.
Then there’s Cam Maron who started as a raw lump of clay with catcher’s gear, and is developing very nicely into a real, live catcher, with a certain degree of athleticism. His bat shows some definite promise too, but he’s still perhaps four or five years away from the bigs. Then, if you are looking for that dark-horse to root for. The candidate here would be the only catcher that the Mets actually spent a reasonably high draft pick on recently to acquire. That would be Blake Forsythe the 2010 3rd round draft pick out of Tennessee. Cordero was an IFA, and both Centeno and Maron were 30-something round draft picks.
Forsythe has been pretty much a bust so far in his first two seasons, so this year will be crucial for him. He does have a lot going for him though. He is an excellent defensive catcher, although he still needs to work at improving his lifetime 30% CS rate. That would not be too far fetched though, since Forsythe is perhaps the most tireless worker in the entire system. First to arrive, last to leave, that sort of thing. As a hitter he shows plus power potential, but he also will face the unenviable task, of cutting way down on his strikeouts, as he works his way up into tougher and tougher levels of the minors. At best he is two to three years away from being considered for a big league chance.
And that’s pretty much it. Jeff Diehl, last year’s over-slot draft signing, will be moving off of catcher this year, most likely to first-base. None of the other catchers in the system profile as major league prospects. So what does this say as far as the upcoming draft and how the Mets should be approaching it? Obviously catcher is a position that the Mets should be targeting and restocking from the top to the bottom of the system. The idea of bringing in as many as three or four catching prospects this spring should not be out of the realm of possibility, and should be made a reality. Hopefully after more than a year to evaluate what they have and where they want to go, the front office will for once, put some significance on the position of catcher in this organization.
SHORTSTOP
Okay, let’s see if we can name them. Buddy Harrelson, of course. Rey Rey Ordonez, of course. Kevin Elster? Eh. The man who will always be beloved to Mets fans Jose Reyes, of course. But could that be it? Raffy Santana came from the Cardinals, Frank Taveras from the Pirates. Jose Oquendo came up as a Met shortstop, but went to the Cardinals after just two seasons as a Met. He was traded to the Cards at the start of the 1985 season, at the tender age of 20. The Red-Birds then made him into a super-utility player, since they already had a guy at short by the name of Ozzie Smith. So let me get this straight, the Mets have only developed three exceptional shortstops in their history? Yup, three, Reyes, Harrelson, and Ordonez. Well with the F.O. pretty much knowing for a while that they were going to lose Reyes, they must have stocked the system with shortstop prospects, no? Well er, no. Not exactly.
The wild-card is Jordany Valdespin, who is hardly a shortstop at all. He certainly hasn’t fielded like one since he was placed at that all-important defensive position. His mind, it seems is on other things which keeps him from exerting maximum effort when it comes to his “D.” What other things? Himself, his hitting, and mostly himself. In addition to working on his defense he has also not embraced the “team” concept very strongly as of yet. Who knows if he ever will.
In 623 lifetime chances, over four seasons as a SS, Spin has a fielding % of .921. Ouch. I don’t care if he hits like Rogers Hornsby, I’m not putting him in there at shortstop, sorry. Not until he proves he can play the position. For all you big Valdespin fans out there, yes both of you, I will throw you a bone. His lifetime fielding % at second-base is better. In 982 chances over five seasons at 2B, his Fld% is: .968. Marvelous. Until he does better, I wouldn’t let him play there at Citi either.
There are a couple of young infielders, who are very exciting prospects, Phil Evans, and J.C. Gamboa. Unfortunately they won’t be ready for big league action for at least three years. And there is a good chance that Evans may be moved to second-base at some point. Same holds true for Danny Muno, who’s a little bit older than those guys, but second-base may be in his future someday, as well. It goes without saying, with Ruben Tejada the only thing standing between shortstop at Citifield and Omar Quintanilla, it makes me yearn for that viable shortstop prospect even more. In addition to catcher, the team needs to get serious about over-hauling and restocking the shortstop position throughout the organization.
LEFT-HANDED STARTERS
Ok, I know this is going to be a short list. Before I name them, I want to point out that Sid Fernandez was acquired from the Dodgers, another amazing trade courtesy of the great Frank Cashen. Over the years, the Mets acquired a lot of big name lefties at the end of their careers. We had the pleasure of the great Frankie Viola, showing the Shea faithful how it’s done for two plus seasons, and also saw the last major league gasps, while wearing blue and orange, by such immortals as: Warren Spahn, Mickey Lolich, Randy Jones, John Candelaria, and Tom Glavine. We even got some serviceable lefties who had been around a little, but played important roles on Mets teams like: Al Jackson, Bobby Ojeda, Don Cardwell, George Stone, Al Leiter, and Johan Santana.
But how many good lefty starters have the Mets produced from their farm system in their 50 year history? Two. That’s right. Unless you count Jonathan Niese, which I don’t, not yet. He has a shot at being considered a great lefty in Mets history someday, but first he needs to show us something over a long period of time. Like the two south-paws who did make this list: the great Jerry Koosman, and Jon Matlack. But come on guys! Can we please get serious about something as important as left-handed starting pitching? Instead of bringing in Ollie Perez, or Kenny Rogers, why don’t we develop our own stable of lefties down on the farm?
Right now, things are looking better as far as lefty relief throughout the system. The emergence of such power-armed port-siders as: Rob Carson, Josh Edgin, and Adam Kolarek, and the fading promise of Eric Niesen finding his command, give some hope to Mets fans that a few LOOGY’s may be on the way. But what of the starters? Well, of course there’s Darin Gorski, still two years away, and not necessarily a starter at the big league level. There’s Juan Urbina, but he’s at least three years away. There’s Jack Leathersich, but no one knows at this time, if he will ultimately wind up pitching in the rotation, or in relief. And let’s not forget Steve Matz, and Zach Dotson, two completely unknown commodities trying to come back from injuries and career derailment, who are both at least three to four years away. Then you have a handful of IFA’s who are like 17-years-old, and have only just arrived stateside, not exactly the cavalry.
You don’t have to be Branch Rickey to see that an influx of left-handed pitching is in order. Hopefully this huge void will start to be filled this year with the upcoming draft. With such a long lag time between players entering the system, and when and if they finally make the majors, it is a priority to have prospects at these positions at each level throughout the system. Only then will Mets fans have the security of knowing that their farm system is one of the best. Healthy, strong, and self-sufficient. And the fruits of this will be harvested and enjoyed, for years to come.
LGM!
About the Author: Peter Shapiro
The first time I went to Shea was not for a Mets game, it was for the Beatles concert there in August of '66. My first Met game was '67, a guy named Salty Parker was the interim-manager then. My first pennant race was 1969. As a 12 year-old that summer and fall, I managed to get to the park for 3 games. The first was the beginning of the Miracle which actually started on Tuesday July 8, 1969 with a day game against the Cubs. I was there a lot in '73. I saw games 3 & 5 of the 1973 NL Playoffs against the "Big Red Machine", from the upper deck behind home plate. It was from there that I witnessed the fight between Bud Harrelson and Pete Rose, and the mayhem that ensued. And that sweet victory in game 5! I saw a couple of WS games at Shea that year against that legendary Oakland A's club. I was there in 1985 for every single game Dr. K pitched including his two 16 strikeout performances, and the day he one-hit the Cubs on an infield single and the Mets won 1-0. I was there the day the Mets made that miraculous comeback against the Braves in the ninth inning by scoring eight runs. I saw a Banner Day in the '70's against the Phillies. The parading fans had to leave their seats in the 4th inning of the first game to get in line outside the stadium. The first game went 18 innings, before they were allowed to do their sign parade across the field. I loved being a Met fan in those days. Hopefully we are once again preparing to emerge from the darkness.
26 Comments + Add Comment
NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nationals | 26 | 17 | .605 | - |
| Braves | 26 | 18 | .591 | 0.5 |
| Marlins | 24 | 19 | .558 | 2.0 |
| Mets | 23 | 20 | .535 | 3.0 |
| Phillies | 21 | 23 | .477 | 5.5 |
Last updated: 05/23/2012
Recent Comments
- Just Some Internet Guy You Dont Know: on Why The Ike Davis Decision Must Be Made By Thursday: Valley fever took out Conor Jackson...you never...
- Just Some Internet Guy You Dont Know: on Kirk Nieuwenhuis Should Not Lose Playing Time For Anyone: No one is taking Bay or Torres...
- Metsie: on Kirk Nieuwenhuis Should Not Lose Playing Time For Anyone: What eally needs to happen is either...
- Metsie: on Kirk Nieuwenhuis Should Not Lose Playing Time For Anyone: what I saw from Kirk early is...
- Metsie: on Why The Ike Davis Decision Must Be Made By Thursday: Actually I just read something in the...
Write Your Own Mets Post
“There is the old school acumen of: “take the best available player each time you pick regardless of position.” But that goes by the assumption that all things are equal. From rounds three on in the draft, all the players pretty much are equal, without much difference as far as projection, and similar chances at development. So why not draft for need, while at the same time taking the best athlete available?”
Because you can never be too sure of your needs 3 or 4 years from now. Also, the guy you draft as a catcher today may not stick and end of a 3B or something. And if you are over loaded at one position (hopefully something up the middle), you can always trade for what you need.
Drafting on need and taking guys who can play as soon as possible is a big part of what got us into this mess.
“Some fans really love the direction the organization is heading in regards to the farm system, but that doesn’t mean that they are where they need to be by any means. There is a long way to go. Look at it as the glass is half full, for all you incorrigible optimists out there. The fact is, there are key areas where this organization absolutely must increase the talent pool.”
Nobody has said otherwise. Position players are in short supply in the Mets farm system, especially up the middle. But, that doesn’t get fixed in one season.
“Why haven’t the Mets moved up in the farm system rankings, despite the fact that they have had good drafts, and improved over the last two years? Why are they still ranked in the middle?”
Dude, Baseball America jumped the Mets farm system something like 10 places since 2010. They are in the middle of the pack after so much improvement because they were starting at damn near the bottom.
” Or even by some extremely biased anti-Met journalists, one of which recently ranked the Mets system 22nd, or 24th or some such ludicrous thing? That is going a little too far in one’s prejudice against the Mets franchise, but everyone’s entitled to their opinion, even when they’re wrong.”
To be fair, I think Keith Law puts a lot weight on major league ready players (ie guys who are going to play on the big club this year) the Mets have maybe 3 guys like that and none are likely All Stars.
“Because you can never be too sure of your needs 3 or 4 years from now. Also, the guy you draft as a catcher today may not stick and end of a 3B or something. And if you are over loaded at one position (hopefully something up the middle), you can always trade for what you need.”
I don’t know if you intended to or not but you helped support my argument here. All the more reason to overdraft at those key positions, to seek to overstock commodities that will have value to your big league roster by playing for you, or being traded for other commodities that you need more.
“Drafting on need and taking guys who can play as soon as possible is a big part of what got us into this mess.”
By you saying we ever drafted for need is giving the Mets too much credit. You make it sound like they ever had a strategy in the draft, other than trying not to embarrass themselves with stupid first round picks, and taking players who were old (4 year college guys, not for talent but for signability. Drafting for need, other than spending the least amount of money possible, never entered into the Met drafting equation.
“Position players are in short supply in the Mets farm system, especially up the middle. But, that doesn’t get fixed in one season.”
I never said it could be fixed in one season Donal, now your distorting what I said. Here’s what I said: ‘that doesn’t mean that they are where they need to be by any means. There is a long way to go.’ And this: ‘Hopefully this huge void will start to be filled this year with the upcoming draft.’
“Dude, Baseball America jumped the Mets farm system something like 10 places since 2010. They are in the middle of the pack after so much improvement because they were starting at damn near the bottom.”
Wow. End of discussion then.
“To be fair, I think Keith Law puts a lot weight on major league ready players (ie guys who are going to play on the big club this year) the Mets have maybe 3 guys like that and none are likely All Stars.”
To say the words fair, and Keith Law in the same breath has got to be some kind of oxymoron. “the Mets have maybe 3 guys like that and none are likely All Stars.”
What else does your crystal ball say? Your predictions are simply fascinating!
“I don’t know if you intended to or not but you helped support my argument here. All the more reason to overdraft at those key positions, to seek to overstock commodities that will have value to your big league roster by playing for you, or being traded for other commodities that you need more.”
That assumes talent is evenly distributed in the draft.
If you have 2 guys of comparable talent and one plays CF and the other plays 3B, ya, you go CF. But you don’t go in and say “get me all CF and catchers”.
“By you saying we ever drafted for need is giving the Mets too much credit. ”
Meh, probably. I’m just trying to put a positive spin on things today.
“I never said it could be fixed in one season Donal, now your distorting what I said.”
Perhaps I misread it, but it feels that way.
“What else does your crystal ball say? Your predictions are simply fascinating!”
Obviously you know our farm better than I ever will, I’m just taking into account everything I’ve read or heard or seen when trying to determine things.
The Mets have been drafting for need and speed as well as signability for years now. That’s a fact. How is it that we wind up trying to fit so many guys into the wrong hole?
We have right now 4 1B man in our starting 8. That doesn’t happen when you draft for top quality and all around talent, it happens when you draft one tool college position players.
Tell you the truth Ike Davis is without a doubt the most well rounded of all the first basemen we have in our starting lineup having plenty of experience at RF and even the mound before becoming a pro. It’s just the fact that he is a really good 1B man while the others aren’t that makes him the ideal starter there.
An argument both ways can be made about the college pitcher (more developed/more abused) but no argument in favor of the one dimensional college bat holds any water and yet that is what we have continually drafted and the few times we’ve deviated it’s been for HS guys without college committments that didn’t require a larger bonus than the typical truly talented HS kid asked to give up his college education.
This past season we finally started taking some extraordinary HS talent in the middle rounds and consequently moved our draft price tag all the way up to 21st out of 30. previously we around 29. Big market club yeah right!
The middle round talent in HS kids like Tuschak, Evans, Marquez, Robbins (dns) and Diehl is off the charts and no more likely to bust than millions of one dimensional 21 and 22 year olds we’ve selected in years past but the real benefit is not in how many make it up here, it’s in how much they produce when they get up here and not in just one specific area but all the way around. BA, power, speed, arm, defense, instincts, the whole gamut, and in how long they’ll be in their prime up here. Not just a guy who you have to hold your breath on half the time. Those guys are fine in and of themselves as bench and role players, capable backups and well conceived platoons but a whole team full of them as starters is just not acceptable.
That’s what has continually caused us to go for the expensive quick fix from outside the organization and those guys have on average busted at least as often as the average top talent HS kid and they cost you Major league baseball games while their doing it. Even the expensive salary dump or FA who does come over and play well is frequently down the hill in three years and for every Beltran or Piazza there’s 4 or 5 Castillo’s or Bays’ and without the Alfonzo/Ordonez and Reyes/Wright the Piazza and Beltran doesn’t provide enough of a difference anyway to make the investment worthwhile from a winning standpoint.
Couldn’t have said it any better myself Agee. We’ve developed 3 allstar type players over the last 20+ years.Alfonzo,Reyes and Wright. Not one front end starter. That’s pathetic!
Sick isn’t it Fonzie. Three players, three post season appearances.
I’m not sure if you got my response about Juan Mercado. He’s now the Pirate Latin American Scouting supervisor after having handled that position for the Cardinals.
“Dude, Baseball America jumped the Mets farm system something like 10 places since 2010.”
Yeah and all it took was getting rid of an All Star and 68 ABs from a kid we drafted!
If just two kids (one of which has those 68 ABs) can make that big a of a jump then what does that tell you about how far away from having the best Farm we are by the way BA makes up those lists?
Will getting just one more Prospect for Wright and whoever we draft 1st put us at the top of the heap in the MLB?
You do realize we jumped that many spots because we added TWO prospects while everyone else in the league only added one which equates with the one guy we drafted and the addition of one we traded an All Star for don’t you?
BA’s ranking of teams is all about the numbers!
You add two while everyone else adds one you make a big jump!
And when guys who were WRONGLY put on their top 100 list fails (see F-Mart) you go back to the bottom even QUICKER than you move up!
There is more than 1 round in the draft and there is also IFA. So, ya, your whole post was a waste.
yeah how many players taken in the 5th round make the BA List? Huh?
COUNT THEM!
So this way your entire LIFE might not be as big a waste as your reply was!
I don’t think you can draft based on MLB need. MiL need yes but not MLB needs!
MLB changes too fast and situations vary from year to year with free agency to be drafting for what you need on the MLB level!
Which I believe is what Pete has said here!
If you look at our 1st round selections since 2000 you see a distinct leaning toward Pitching!
Traber, Heilman, Kazmir, Humber, Pelfrey and Harvey.
Thats not unusual though Pitchers always seem to be heavy in being picked in the top of the first!
In 2011 the top 4 picks were all Pitchers!
Pitchers are very similar to Qbs in the NFL drafts. People place such importance on them that even a pitcher who is not mind blowing gets selected higher than a regular position player that is!
Only in cases where there is a percieved lack of talent in Pitching or one of those CAN’T MISS positional players is there does a regular player leapfrog over them.
And while there is some logic to taking the best player available it is almost impossible to say the guy who is 5th on your draft board is truly better than the 6th guy! Even if he is, How much are you giving up by taking the need as opposed to the guy you probably can’t use and must trade>
If the 5th guy plays at a position that you seem to have locked up or have stocked well in the MiLs then it makes some sense to skip on him in favor of the NEXT best player on your list if he plays a position your weak at in the MiLs.
Sure some will say but you can trade him or the others you have later on, Yes but you don’t get back as much in return when you do! Only in the case of trading him in a package for a All Star MLB player can you win via a trade.
The issues with MiL depth I say has much less to do with who and how you draft and everything to do with how you scout and develop!
The scouting leads to servicable and teachable draft decisions and the development makes what was seen a reality!
Basically you can get further drafting kids that are coachable than you can drafting guys who have dominated before you drafted them and maybe don’t listen because they already think they are good! That isn’t true for all players as some of the dominant guys are dominante because they were well coached and learned their way to that dominance.
We often have discussions on how well the Phillies draft. From a pure numbers perspective they don’t really draft all that good (they skip better players all the time) but they don’t look at the performance of the kids they draft they ignore the stats and put more emphasis in mental makeup and personality instead.
This has served them well and when coupled with good development leads to having the players who can take the heat when they get to the show and have the leadership around them (from past promotions of similar players) to guide them when they struggle!
The stat boys say mental makeup isn’t important or relevant you are what your statline is!
Well what makes a Roy Halladay, Jimmy Rollins, Cliff Lee, Chase Utley what they are is not an overpowering skill compared to thier peers!
It is all in the attitude that guides the skills they have that makes them so formidable!
Imagine Roy Halladay’s head on Pelfrey’s stuff!
That frankenstien monster would probably still be in the running for Cy Young!
because baseball is as much a thinking sport as it is a physical sport!
Unlike football where Mass is the key and physical effort counts on every play, thats not the case in baseball!
So when looking at the draft and looking at need you will always do better to find and take the guy at a position your weak (on the MiL level) and take the guy who has the guts and head to play the game and if he has any physical deficiencies thats what the developmental division is supposed to fix!
Phillies draft on tools. They take huge risk/reward guys where the odds are even more against them than the average prospect but when they hit……………………………..they hit big.
That’s the difference. That also helps them tremendously in making trades. Guys like Anthony Gose and Jonathon Singleton were highly desired when Gillick or Amaro rang up another team. Dominick Brown is another guy in that mold, so was Ryan Howard.
Their guys, when they do make it can run down a flyball, steal a bag or fire a rocket from RF. They expect to have a higher bust rate, but they also expect to have well rounded position players at 6 spots in the line up and sacrifice some D for big power at 1B and LF which is a very typical philosophy.
We’ve done an overall very poor job in the first round for a very long time but our results in the 2nd and 3rd rounds have been far far worse if you can believe it.
The last useful player we got out of the 2nd round is Todd Hundley drafted all the way back in 1987.
Other than a couple years of Joe Smith the last useful player we got out of the 3rd round was Rick Aguilera all the way back in 1983.
Hey there’s nothing wrong with getting something useful out of the 7th and 13th rounds but when your bombing out every single year in the 2nd and 3rd rounds and only rarely hitting in the first and that’s with taking the “safer, closer” choice, I don’t know what to say.
There is no doubt that some here will claim these are outstanding results but compared to the Phillies big risk/big reward strategy that garnered them Jimmy Rollins, Randy Wolf and Scott Rolen in the 2nd round since 1993 I’d disagree,
Other than Angel Pagan we haven’t hit on a 4th rounder since Mike Jorganson in 1966. As for the 5th round we have to go all the way back to Burt Hooten in 1968. Too bad we didn’t sign him, he was a HS “kid”back then, guess we should have taken the “safe” one dimensional college player who makes it to the Majors so often like we usually do.
Lets not forget Chase Hutchingson as a potential LH starter we have in the Farm. i agree, the jury’s still out, but he did have a helluva 2011 Season. Probably a reliever IF he continues, but ya never know.
We have focused on pitching the entire past decade and don’t have much to show for it! So, we didn’t draft well. And thats how i see the task now and going forward: draft the best guy we think is on the board in that round, no matter the positional need. IF we hit the ‘eye, we win. IF he’s good, he’s good and has value whether we ‘need him’ or not. If we miss and he doesn’t make it, we lose all around.
So we have to invest in scouting, talent evaluation, $$$$’s to sign a ‘steal for the round’, player development…and hope and pray, because it is like roulette and it does take 3 – 5 years to develop most of these kids.
i do think our Farm has improved greatly over the past 3 years, when know-it-all Bill Madden panned and sneered at our System. (He was right, but i argued with him, anyway!) And now, we have a bunch of slots in the early rounds to scope through the tons of players available and find those gems. Let’s hope we have a series of good – great draft this year and over the next few years, so our Farm is stacked with ready for MLB talent.
THAT would be a great problem to have, wouldn’t it?!?
“Healthy strong and self sufficient.” The goal can’t be stated any better than that. Able to talk to any team in baseball about any of their players because of a farm system that produces quality and quantity. A team that isn’t restricted to just those players who have made it to free agency or those who are suddenly made “available” by their current teams.
That alone would make this team a solid consistent contender every year, and years in which we get nipped at the wire would number among our worst seasons, not our best.
Omar Minaya did do the first part of the job. Thanks to him we do have a surprising amount of depth but most of it is fringy,, incomplete, one dimensional or questionable in a number of ways. When you get past Familia, Harvey and Wheeler there’s no one that really makes another team salivate. Intrigued perhaps but that’s it. If I had to put a number on it I’d say 18th is where we stand and that’s after adding a strong draft class in 2011 and Wheeler.
Better than where it was when Minaya got here though that’s for sure but the reality is every team (other than the Chisox) have at least 3 top prospects and many have more than three.
Offensively LH hitter Juan Centeno appears to be a Josh Thole clone so even if he does make it up here it’s just a defensive upgrade which is vital but makes for an ill conceived roster. He’s also always been the #2 catcher with just 150 games total over 4 full seasons behind the plate which in our system really says a lot. I’m very much looking forward to seeing him work with Harvey and Familia and perhaps Wheeler if he gets up to AA.,
So far Francisco Pena’s been a bust but with catchers you just never know. Plenty of IFA’s have been in their teams systems for 8 or 9 years before making it and competently handling the most important chores demanded of a catcher.. It already appears that Francisco has inherited his fathers bat but if he were to add his fathers GG defense he and Centeno could be a workable situation. Cordero and Maron could possibly be more than that but at A+ and A- in 2012 are still miles away. Plenty of baseballs top catching prospects were signed out of Latin America during the years that Minaya was here and this area and the failure to adequately address it will haunt this Franchise for years to come although Steve Phillips busting on 15 out of 17 1st, 2nd and 3rd round draft picks from ’98-’03 has more to do with it than anything else. This is a clear example of how years upon years of **** drafts just kill your organizations chances even 10 years down the road.
SS Willie Tovar a 2008 IFA from Venezuela and only 19 last year in the Sally League will be at the very least an outstanding glove at SS which alone is good enough to win with but he’s also getting everything he can right now out of himself offensively so with just a little growth over the next couple years could put himself into serious contention. At 20 in A+ this year he might be over matched and still be a viable candidate going forward and there is even a chance that Evans moves to catcher so if Tovar does force his way up we could have a number of options available. The trick is to not just count on one guy for every spot like we did with Ike, Havens, Tejada, Pena and Fern because not all will make it and fewer still will make it big.
Valdespin has the athletic ability to play SS and the bat to be much better than average. He did show signs of getting serious last year and if he ramps it up in that area, commits himself to being a lock down SS, gets better control of the strike zone and drops the Hansley Ramirez act he could really force himself up here in a big way. At 24 this year 2012 is bigger for him than just about any other minor leaguer in our system.
Loved Oquendo. Going with a platoon at 2B and 3B made us skimp at backup MIer which Oquendo would have been perfect for and was a bit of an achilles heal for those mid 80′s Mets which didn’t come back to bite, but could have like it did in ’00. Overall he had a pretty damn good career and even continued it into the coaching ranks.
I’d rather have had Reyes here for 4-5 more years but with the 12th, 35th, 65th and 88th picks in the draft I’m very interested to see how we do. One thing I cannot understand is how Cuddyer, Bell and Willingham garnered their former teams a better pick in the supplemental round than Reyes got us. That makes no sense.
Toronto, as usual snagged a few extra supplemental round draft choices by “losing” 3 type B’s and it’s clearly a strategy they’ve been working for a while now, even picking up guys after the season, declining their options, paying their buyouts, offering arb and snagging prospects drafted anywhere from 32-60 for “losing” guys like Frank Francisco, John Rauch, Jose Molina, Scott Downs, John Buck, Kevin Gregg, Miguel Olivo, Marco Scutero, Rod Barajas over just the last two years. Not sure if that’s still a viable strategy with the new CBA but having nine extra sandwich round picks over a two year period can only move your farm system in one direction. Clearly there are no flies on AA when it comes to committing to the farm or the owners of the Blue Jay’s either in paying for the buildup and it really hasn’t come at a cost to the Major league team at all as their 4 games over .500 in the last two years even while playing a full 33% of their schedule against 3 of the best teams in baseball.
Thanks Pete for another great article.
Agee and metsie, write an article… i mean, seriously….
Haha! Good job Alex! Petey salutes the core! I only wish our farm system had as much of an abundance of talent, as our readership does at expressing their points of view!
lol, petey, they made great points, but damn… my eyes hurt after reading all that… lol, and we shouldn’t put too much stock into what BA or anyone else rank our prospects or farm system.. guys like duda and murphy and even tejada were not even topp 100 ranked, yet i can find more than 100 guys from their draft who were nothing but bust, but of course, they’ll never send a letter of apology for being wrong…
I know, I understand that Baseball America was the first to cover the minor leagues. I myself have been reading BA since the early 80′s. But I really don’t think they are infallible when it comes to their predictions. On the contrary, with all the information out there today, BA serves the purpose of still being a place to go for information, but their analysis has definitely dropped back with the rest of the internet pack.
LOL Alex – Maybe a point counterpoint will be done in the future!
Petey, I don’t think it is about being Infallible but about garbage in garbage out!
There really isn’t a lot of data to judge what a prospect can do or where he might go!
They use scouting which is a very subjective not objective art they also use draft position and number of plusses found in those scouting reports as a barometer of HOPE! WHich is the overwhelming criteria they use to rank! How good COULD he be, not really how good is he NOW!
It will come up with the right answer provided the team that took him and the scout that described him were correct in their subjective opinion!
A guy drafted at the top of the first round (that isn’t a headscratcher) will automatically place that kid at the top of most of those rankings even a day before he has taken a professional AB! (See Nimmo) And he will stay there until something happens to ruin that hope! (See F-Mart)
If you rank based on the possibility of events that haven’t happened yet your kind of asking for failure when those things don’t happen!
If the rankings were based on MiL Stats preformance and progress as opposed to potential they might have a much more accurate ranking system!
If the rankings were based on MiL Stats preformance and progress as opposed to potential they might have a much more accurate ranking system!”
BINGO, kinda like a kid with a 4+ ERA in single A being the best pitcher in the minors is a stretch… they base it on “high ceiling” which makes them FAIL everytime..
thats my biggest issue with BA…
68 Abs were enough to put Nimmo on the list!
And he doesn’t even have to do WELL in those 68 ABs just not screw up to stay there!
All because of WHERE he was drafted which is based on the scouting report they used to decide that WHERE!
The thing with Nimmo though is he wouldn’t have made the top 10 in most systems.
The top 10 sorted out by team is only useful to see where you have a potential suplus or weakness.
The top 100 is only expected to graduate 45 or so into the Majors and some of them will be set up men, LOOGY’s or just average major League starters as well. there are only 750 jobs in the Majors and lots of guys play for 10 or more years so it’s unrealistic to think that 100 jobs open up every other year or so.
Prospect evaluation is the hardest part of the job but even just one big hit can fill a teams need at one key spot for a decade or longer so if you can hit big twice a year that can really impact your teams chances in the future.
I put more stock in what Petey writes than anything in BA!
He does interviews with the players that tells me a ton more about them than anything BA’s list does!
i think Nieuwenhuis and Valdespin are the two MIL position players closest to Citi that we have. Lutz is interesting, but he has worse of a ‘plagued-by-injuries’ label than Havens.
i have a hunch that both Capt. Kirk and Jordany will be on the team at some point this year, with perhaps one of them, Kirk contributing meaningfully. It could be both of them or neither.
Where these guys fit into Citi this year is anybody’s guess. Much depends on the competition at 2B; IF DW gets traded and when; IF Murph can stay healthy; IF Tejada proves it with the glove and bat, and a host of other Qs i have no sense of.
And i still think Lagares is a credible prospect. We’ll see if last year was a fluke. i like those 3-baggers and that .SLG %. i do think Capt. Kirk is ‘first up’ to contribute in the OF this year. Play ball.
From BA on justin smoak: “A switch-hitting first baseman with power, Smoak draws natural comparisons to Mark Teixiera. As a first baseman, Smoak has Gold Glove-caliber actions and soft hands. His footwork and instincts around the bag are advanced and his arm strength is adequate. As a hitter, he is consistent from both sides of the plate, and he has superior pitch recognition. A power threat against any pitch, Smoak has the ability to hit to all fields”
880 at bats later, this man is a 227 hitter ansd 28 hr… where’s the apology BASEBALL AMERICA???? not to mention all the others who were not mention
It wasn’t just BA that so far has missed on Smoak. What about the Mariners and also TX who was real high on him? Not sure if he’s a total bust yet; he could still blossom.
But just goes to show, how much of a dice-roll, evaluating and developing MLB talent is.