20
2012
2012 MLB Draft: Early Mock Has Mets Taking A LHP
An article by Former Writers
With the college baseball season kicking off last night what better time to make my first mock draft than right now? With the volatility with baseball prospects I wouldn’t be surprised if 90% of these projections turn out to be wrong and that a small portion of them will fall out of the first round conversation by the time draft day comes around. Nonetheless, it is a good way to get a ‘names to watch’ as the college and high school seasons get underway.
1. Houston Astros: Mark Appel, RHP – Stanford
Appel is the consensus No. 1 at the moment due to his stuff and not his results. He sits in the mid-90′s and touches the upper-90′s with his fastball that he compliments with a legitimate slider and working changeup. To open the college baseball season Appel held the 10th rank Vanderbilt team to one run over seven innings, while picking up five strikeouts and walking just two.
2. Minnesota Twins: Mike Zunino, C – Florida
Zunino absolutely tore the cover off the ball last year belting 19 homeruns. He has plus power and is a great defensive catcher. Zunino provides the Twins with a big time catcher to allow Mauer move off the catchers position. He opened the year of with a 1-4, one RBI day.
3. Seattle Mariners: Lucas Giolito, RHP – Harvard Westlake HS (CA)
There is an outside chance Giolotio makes a push to be the first prep right-hander drafted first overall. He is a towering presence on the mound at 6’6″, 230 lbs. with an already plus-fastball that is an easy mid-90′s, a devastating curveball, and a changeup that is a little more advanced than most high school pitchers with his skill set. The Mariners won’t be afraid by his UCLA commitment.
4. Baltimore Orioles: Byron Buxton, OF – Appling Country HS (GA)
Tools, tools, tools. That is all you will hear when someone is talking about Buxton. He has a top notch arm and top notch speed that should make him a plus defender in center field. He has already shown some power and projections for more, which has scouts drooling over his potential.
5. Kansas City Royals: Kevin Gausman, RHP – LSU
I watched Gausman take on Air Force last night and was torn on what to think about him. The obvious is that his fastball is electric. It jumps on the hitter and is difficult to make contact against. He snapped off a few nice curveballs, but the changeup looked pretty weak. He earned the win going six innings giving up one run on four hits and two walks and struck out seven. It didn’t look like he dominated as much as his stat line suggests, but then again it was a great results early in the season.
6. Chicago Cubs: David Dahl, CF – Oak Mountain HS (AL)
You usually never know what the Cubs are going to do come draft time. Hopefully with Theo now in charge it will help make their picks a little more predictable because they are always the team to completely screw up a mock draft. Dahl is a center fielder with five-tool potential. He has a litte more polish and I don’t feel he has the same type of bust potential as a Buxton. Dahl could be the type of high school bat that Theo targets to make a splash with his first pick as the Cubies general manager.
7. San Diego Padres: Deven Marrero, SS – Arizona State
The Padres are ecstatic that Marrero falls into their lap and jump all over him. It not only fills a need, but he is the best player available and his defense nearly makes him a lock to contribute at some point. If he takes another step forward with his bat then the Padres have a star on their hands. Marrero went 1-for-3 with a walk and two runs scored on opening day.
8. Pittsburgh Pirates: Gavin Cecchini, SS – Barbe HS (CA)
The Pirates have made a strong commitment to bolstering their farm system the last few years and aren’t afraid to spend. One position their farm could certainly use a jolt in is shortstop and Cecchini comes with worlds of potential. There is a good chance Cecchini will be able to stick at short and he has the bat to make him special if he does stick.
9. Miami Marlins: Lance McCullers, RHP – Jesuit HS (FL)
The Marlins draft philosophy consists of two things: they (1)like upside and (2)like Florida kids. McCullers presents both of those things. He was once thought of as the cream of the crop in terms of high school arms in this draft, but increasing concerns about his ability to stick as a starter having him slipping. His mid-90′s fastball and plus slider give him enough upside for the Marlins to jump at.
10. Colorado Rockies: Chris Beck, RHP – Georgie Southern
The Rockies could never have enough pitching and Beck is a tremendous college pitcher. He gets his fastball into the low-to-mid 90′s and has a potentially plus hard-breaking slider. He has a sturdy frame that should enable him to eat a ton of innings at the next level. Beck went six innings allowing one run on three hits and a walk, while striking out eight against UT Martin.
11. Oakland Athletics: Brian Johnson, LHP/1B – Florida
This is an interesting pick for Oakland. Johnson is close to big league ready as a starter with at worst three average pitches, clean mechanics, and a workhorse body. On the flip side he has huge upside as a hitter because of his outstanding power. Johnson went 2-for-4 with an RBI in opening day vs. Cal State Fullerton.
12. New York Mets: Max Fried, LHP – Harvard Westlake HS (CA)
Good luck to any high school team who has to play Harvard Westlake this year. They have the top prep arm in Giolito and the best left-handed prep arm in Fried. Fried has a 89-92 mph fastball, but it is the curveball that is his real bread and butter. He modeled it off Sandy Koufax and has been throwing it since he was 12-years-old. On top of his “best in the country curveball”, he has an okay changeup that projects to be an above-average pitch. At 6’4″, 170 lbs there is still some projection left on his frame although he doesn’t really need much more on his fastball. It is going to be tough to sign away from UCLA, but the Mets showed a glimpse of being willing to spend in the draft last year and Fried could turn out to be a steal.
13. Chicago White Sox: Trey Williams, 3B – Valencia HS (CA)
The White Sox’s farm system desperately needs some upside. Hell, they need prospects period, but a prospect with real star potential would do them wonders. Williams has some of the best power of any prep bat in the class and projects as an above-average defender at third base. He is the son of former Mets first round draft pick Eddie Williams.
14. Cincinnati Reds: Walker Weickel, RHP Olympia HS (FL)
Weickel has your prototypical pitcher’s body at 6’6″, 200 lbs. and uses his height to his advantage in order to generate a downhill plane on his low-90′s fastball. He throws a 12-to-6 curveball that is steadily improving and uses a low 80′s changeup. He is quickly moving up draft boards and could pitch his way out of this spot.
15. Cleveland Indians: Victor Roache, RF – Georgia Southern
Roach burst onto the seen last year when he blew away every college player in the power department, becoming the first college player to hit 30 homeruns in eight years. He managed this despite using the BBCOR bats that brought down power numbers. The only thing holding him back from going higher than this is his defensive liabilities and struggles with breaking balls. Could turn out to be a special bat.
16. Washington Nationals: Stryker Trahan, C – Acadiana HS (LA)
We all know the Nationals will spend and I have no doubt in my mind this catcher is going to cost them a pretty penny. We are talking about a sweet swinging catcher with power, speed, plate discipline, receiving skills, and a good pop time. He has everything you want in a catcher and more. I am almost shocked we are not talking about him in the top 10 or top 5 picks.
17. Toronto Blue Jays: Carlos Correa, SS – Puerto Rico Baseball Academy
The Blue Jays don’t really have many holes in their farm system so why not go with a player that has some of the highest upside in the class. A big bodied shortstop who has smooth motions in the field and a cannon arm. If he is forced to third base he can be a gold glover, but he should be given a shot to stick at shortstop.
18. Los Angeles Dodgers: Jake Barrett, RHP – Arizona State
I don’t see the Dodgers making a pick like they did last year solely for financial reasons, but that doesn’t mean they still won’t go the college route. Barrett has the build of a workhorse and stuff to back it up with a mid-90′s fastball, quality breaking ball, and splitter that is above-average. He has a higher upside than most college pitchers. Barrett has yet to make his debut.
19. St. Louis Cardinals: Joey Gallo, 1B/3B – Bishop Gorman HS (NV)
The Cardinals get this pick as a result of losing Albert Pujols and pick up a guy who could ultimately replace Pujols on the diamond when he will likely have to move off third. Gallo has a pronounced uppercut in his swing that already leads to a lot of strikeouts, but he also already has the 10th longest homerun in Petco Park history. In some ways he reminds me of Ike Davis.
20. San Francisco Giants: Matthew Smoral, LHP – Solon HS (OH)
If there is one team I have faith in getting the most out of this 6’8″, 225 lbs. beast it is the Giants. He sits in the low-90′s and has a slider with late break that has dominated high school hitters. As with most tall pitchers he needs to clean things up with his delivery, but all the tools are there.
21. Atlanta Braves: Albert Almora, CF – Master Academy (FL)
Almora isn’t your typical high school hitter and he won’t slip further down than this. He is at least average to above-average in all five tools and is as polished as any high school player that will enter the draft. He will have no problem sticking in center field because of his speed, arm, and instincts. Could turn into a Jason Heyward redux.
22. Toronto Blue Jays: Michael Wacha, RHP – Texas A&M
Despite the fact that this is an unprotected pick the Blue Jays aren’t taking Wacha for that reason, he is simply the top guy left on the board and gives the Blue Jays another top pitching prospect and one who could move through the minors quickly. Wacha has a tall, slender build at 6’6″, 195 lbs. which allows him to pitch on a downhill plane. He has outstanding command and sits in the low-90′s with his fastball, but his real weapon is a plus changeup that is difficult to pickup. At the moment all he is lacking is a breaking ball. On opening night he pitched 5.2 innings of one-hit, shutout ball. He picked up the win and had eight strikeouts to three walks.
23. St. Louis Cardinals: Duane Underwood, RHP – Pope HS (GA)
Underwood is a good athlete that allows him to easily repeat his smooth mechanics. He has a strong, well-built frame that he uses to generate low-to-mid 90′s fastball. He has a hard, devastating curveball that projects as a plus pitch and already uses a changeup occasionally.
24. Boston Red Sox: Kenny Diekroeger, SS – Stanford
The Red Sox never ending search for a shortstop could end with the Stanford product. He lacks the fluid motions to stick at shortstop, but his top notch athleticism gives him a chance to stick. He struggled offensively last year, but got off to a good start in 2012, getting on base four times with two hits, a walk, and a hit by pitch in game number one.
25. Tampa Bay Rays: Addison Russell, SS – Pace HS (FL)
Russell is another terrific athlete who may not be able to stick at short, but will be given every chance to remain. He has very good power for a shortstop, which sometimes leads to his swing getting a little long. One word scouts have used to describe him is “easy”.
26. Arizona Diamondbacks: Stephen Piscotty, 3B/OF – Stanford
Piscotty is possibly the best pure hitter in the entire draft and is able to drive the ball to all fields with ease. Power isn’t his best tool, but early in 2012 he is showing a little more potential. If he is not able to stick at third base it is because of his lack of range and not his cannon arm. On opening day he went 2-for-4 with a homerun.
27. Milwaukee Brewers: Marcus Stroman, RHP – Duke
Stroman only falls this far because of his slight stature (5’9″, 195 lbs.) and the fact he will most likely be a reliever due to the effort in his delivery. He still might have the most electric stuff in the draft. His mid-to-upper 90′s fastball and hard-biting slider made him literally unhittable in eight innings with Team USA. Stroman struggled in his first start of the year giving up three runs over five innings. He only allowed four hits, but showed no command walking six and hitting another batter. He only struckout three men in the game.
28. Milwaukee Brewers: Rio Ruiz, 3B – Bishop Amat Memorial HS (CA)
This kid can flat out rake. He has adequate range at third base and a cannon arm that allows him to make the plays, but it is his bat will carry him as far as he can go. He already has present power and projects for more in the future. He has an easy swing with quick hands and the only negative against him is his strong commitment to USC where he could also play football.
29. Texas Rangers: Lucas Sims, RHP – Brookwood HS (GA)
If it weren’t for Max Fried, Sims’ 12-to-6 curveball would be the cream of the crop amongst prep arms. The breaking ball has sharp break with depth and is complimented with a low-90′s fastball. He has a good changeup, which could allow him to have three plus pitches as he advances.
30. New York Yankees: Travis Jankowski, CF – Stony Brook
Someone not picking the Yankees to take a prep player. Shocking, right? There are enough prep arms left on the board to take a look at, but the Yankees lack depth when it comes to top outfield prospects. Jankowski is someone playing right in the backyard and could have easily gone earlier than this. He is a true plus athlete with tremendous speed that he knows how to use. He doesn’t have great power, but speed is his calling card and it will allow him to stick in center field with no problem. The Stony Brook season has yet to get underway.
31. Boston Red Sox: Hunter Virant, LHP – Camarillo HS (CA)
Virant is the third of the “big three” UCLA pitching recruits. He has a low-90′s four-seam fastball and high-80′s cutter, but projects for more thanks to his lean 6’3″, 175 lbs. frame. He also throws a curveball, slider, and changeup, all of which he can command. Some are already taking a liking to him more than Fried, but he is my pick for the one that teams feel is the least likely to sign.
Right after I finished this I realized my thunder was stolen with a mock draft just posted, but hopefully you guys enjoy the write ups and it gives you some insight on the prospects than just throwing names at you.
Thoughts from Joe D. – Great glimpse into what could happen in the upcoming draft by Nick, who also does a great job at Mini Mets Pipeline. While most mocks I’ve seen seem to have the Mets pegged for Trey Williams, I’d much rather have Fried. I’m not sure if he’ll be there when the Mets pick, but if both are on the board – you just gotta take Fried. We are happy to have Nick back at MMO, and you can see why we love him here just by checking out the research he puts into every post.
About the Author: Former Writers
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If the Mets had a chance to draft Trahan and passed, they should all have their collective heads examined. But I don’t think he gets out of the top 10.
Could not possibly agree more Fonzie. If Stryker’s available you don’t even think about anyone else and you follow that up with figuring out how you can extract Zunino from whoever gets him at the 2013 trade deadline.
90% of the game is played out between the rubber and the dish and we cannot leave 50% of it unmanned year after year after year.
Josh Erlander and Alex Bergman should be grabbed as well regardless of what we’re able to do with Trahan and here are 9 more names that should be in the mix for rounds 3-7. Clint Coulter, Tom Murphy, Peter O’Brien, Kevin Plawecki, Spencer Lieboom, Darryl Miller, Jason Goldstein, Blake Hickman and Dave Phillips.
So far I have not seen any of the mock drafts predicting the Mets taking Trahan. Most of them have either ,Roach,T.Williams,D.Dahl and W.Weickel. I’m on board with you and Petey in regards to Trahan.Our biggest weakness as an organization is the C position so unless there’s the next big SS prospect available at 12 which there won’t be,they should grab Trahan and he should be there at 12. This draft is not as deep as last years draft but there is premium talent in the 1st 2 round and we have a supp pick as well.
Although I like the sound of what Max Fried has to bring to the table, the Mets need a high level catching prospect in the worst kind of way. Will they be willing to shell out a whole lot of money for a prospect like that, I have my doubts. And in reality the Mets should had drafted a high level catching prospect YEARS ago.
Actually we do have the flexibility to spend on the draft Metsman. They can spend as much as last years 6+ mil on the upcoming june draft with the pasyroll being only 90 mil. If we ended up at 110mil like Sandy said it might last year than the draft budget would’ve been much less.
* payroll
Trahan looks like a star in the making, but I am a little cautious that teams may ultimately see him as an outfielder if they follow the trend of recent athletic high school catchers like Bryce Harper and Wil Meyers and shift him off catcher to get the most value out of his bat. Harper at least was probably just as good if not better defensively than Trahan. High school catchers also have the highest bust potential statistically speaking of any position taken in the first round.
I’d rather target Josh Elander or maybe Clint Coulter with our supplement pick.
Also don’t forget about Jeff Diehl from last year’s draft. He is raw as all hell, but his potential is enormous for a catcher.
Very solid point. I love C. Coulter (Don’t know much about Elander). When is our supplimental pick? If he’s there (Coulter that is) he’s a must.
Mets pick 4th in the sandwich round so 35th overall. I’d expect Coulter to still be there.
Elander is the catcher for TCU and he has some pop. He needs to learn to stay back on balls a little more, but the power is there and he did a better job defensively for team USA than everyone was expecting. He might not last until No. 35 if he has a good season.
I heard they’re moving Diehl off catcher.He’s going to get too big, and they want max return on his power potential. He’s a monster. I detailed him in my “sleeper” piece.
Drat that would truly be a bummer. Just another example of a high school catcher getting moved off because of his power though. That’s why I think you might be better off waiting for the catcher. There are some interesting HS guys that you could get a little later on as well like Chris Chinea who should definitely stick at catcher and looks pretty good at the plate. He is committed to LSU who also has Alex Bregman signed, so at least one of them should definitely sign.
I’m a big believer in drafting the catcher and doing it often and early for a few reasons. One they do get moved so if you wind up with a corner OF or IF what’s wrong with that? 2nd, by drafting them early you might actually have one someday. wouldn’t that be something? 3rd, Catchers are huge to include in trades. 4th there’s a theory that catchers stagnate due to tired leg syndrome in the minors. Basically they get over worked.
Between their own drills, workouts, skull sessions, BP their always getting dragged out to catch bullpens. Then they have games to play in. Minor league rosters are limited in number but if you had two top flight real catching prospects for the games you could spread out the non game workload a little with your C/3B or C/RF and having one of those guys in the Majors as a 3rd catcher allows your manager a lot of options most don’t have.
I hate drafting for need and just because you take a guy early doesn’t mean you have a guy and if he’s a HSer it’s still 4-5 years anyway but at some point you have to do something because this just can’t continue.
Nothing better than a 3rd round pick in 15 years and even that only one time.
Some team is going to snatch Chinea in the supplement 1st round .he is one of the top hitters in the 2012 draft and arguable the best hitting catcher.Tremendous power with an advance hitting approach.
This was a great read and I enjoyed all the thoughts you shared along with each pick. I’m not a Met fan, quite the contrary, Braves, but you did an excellent job here. I’ve seen dozens of mocks already, this might be my favorite one.
Thanks. Means a lot coming from a Braves fan lol.
isn’t it a concern that Max Fried (our projected pick in this particular draft) has been throwing a curveball since he was 12 yrs old? Pressure on his very young elbow? i dunno, but a warning sign to me.
A curve-ball shouldn’t really be worried about. A slider ,however, is the pitch that puts a lot of pressure on the elbow
I have no real problem with the pick of Fried but I am extremely concerned with the Curveball since 12 years old. I still think he would be interesting pick. That being said, I would like the focus to be more on position players with a heavy emphasis on catcher. I would prefer all of these over Fried.
1. Stryker Trahan, C. Arcadiana (HS) LA
2. Trey William, 3b. Valencia (HS) CA
3. Joey Gallo, 1b/3b. Bishop Gorman (HS) LV
4. Clint Coulter, C. Union Camas (HS) WA
5. Stephen Piscotty, 3b/OF. Stanford
Yes, Sloatsburg NY, i’d prefer we go with the best position player available in our slot also. Last year, after B. Niimmo, i think we focused on pitchers–mostly college guys, and a few of them are slotted for full season A-ball this year.
‘Catcher’ stands sound, for sure…and a CFer…
and i’m concerned about throwing a curveball at 12 yrs old. i think most LL coaches discourage the pitch at that age.
It doesn’t sound like he was going out every game as a 12 year old and throwing curveball after curveball because kids that age couldn’t hit it, but more that he was just working on the grip, mechanics, and throwing it in practice since 12. It doesn’t really sound like it should be a huge concern on his arm. Just a young kid who made a smart decision and really worked to make it better.
A lot of those guys have huge bust potential. Williams and Gallo in particular have such pronounced hitches in their swing that worry me. I like Gallo a lot more than Wiilliams, but I would definitely be cautious with them.
i suppose ‘it depends’ on how he began throwing the curveball…on his own, or under tutelage? i think most coaches of young kids discourage the curveball, before Babe Ruth League. A lot of them encourage the ‘change-up’ as an off-speed pitch for a youngster to develop.
But you know more than me on this, so i defer to you.
I definitely understand where the concerns are coming from I just don’t think it is as bad as it sounds from an injury standpoint.
If the Mets do go high school position position player I’d want Dahl, Correa/Cecchini, Almora, or Trahan in that order.
That’s interesting! You certainly know more than I do on the subject but I would love to hear your reason for it and a deeper eval on the players you’ve listed.
I just love everything about Dahl. He is a good defender in centerfield, has tremendous polish, and has a sweet level stroke. He can see he isn’t trying to do too much with the swing and it’s a pretty sight.
Correa and Cecchini have two of the highest ceilings in the class at shortstop and well I want another star shortstop! lol.
HS catchers in the 1st round:
2003: Daric Barton – Okay player but at first base.
2004: Neil Walker – He turned into a pretty nice player but at third base.
2005: Brandon Snyder – Now a first baseman and not that great of a hitter.
2006: Max Sapp – Beyond bust, Hank Conger – he’s a maybe but it doesn’t look awfully promising.
2007: Devin Mosoraco – went from a dud to stud the last two years.
2008: Kyle Skipworth – Not looking to good.Brett Lawrie – great but third baseman.
2010: Kellin Deglan – still early but he looks awful. Justin O’Conner – still early but he looks even worse than Deglan.
Do you see the common theme as to why I am a little reserved when it comes to Trahan? Most of the HS catchers who seem to make it, don’t make it as a catcher so if I am investing my top 12 pick in a HS guy I expect to be the catcher of the future I don’t feel to confident in that. If you think he is the BPA then okay maybe, but if you’re doing it for the positional aspect I’d stay away.
Good point Nick. Stryker is a phenominal athlete so he may not even stay a catcher. Dahl might make more sense. I’m still intrigued by Roache’s power potential if he’s still there at 12 I don’t think I’d pass him up if that were the case.
Tell you the truth I was expecting big things from Minaya in this area. Many of the best catchers in both the Majors and minors have come from Latin America and many of the best catching prospects throughout baseball were signed while he was our GM by other teams including Jesus Montero, Gary Sanchez, Wilin Rosario, Christian Bethancourt, Sebastion Valle, and Hector Sanchez to name a few.
What do you think of Chris Beck or Brian Johnson, if available, when the Mets pick?
I definitely like Beck more than Johnson. Scouts say Beck has clean arm action, but if you watch his delivery it looks a bit off and like it could use some tweaking/cleaning up. His ceiling and stuff though he would be a really nice compliment to Harvey and Wheeler. Would not mind picking him at all.
When I watch Johnson I can’t help, but to think of Paul Maholm. Maholm is certainly a nice pitcher to have and it wouldn’t be a bad outcome. I just think the Mets need a little more upside than that in their system with the way it is laid out. I might prefer Johnson’s upside more as a hitter, but he is definitely more of a “sure thing” off the mound.
Thanks, Nick. i really appreciate the help. Sounds like we have a great chance, with all our ‘early’ picks to really add depth to the Farm System at some key positions.
I’m with you on Dahl. Promising bat!
Nice job Nick
Thank you
Interesting mock Nick. Much much different than most mocks I’ve seen so far. It’s refreshing to see. Most of the experts are going with conventional wisdom and that gets a little on the boring side. Nice job.
Here’s a mock from mymlbdraft.com. They were one of the very few mock drafts that had the Mets selecting Nimmo last year.
http://www.mymlbdraft.com/MLB-Mock-Draft-2012
It’s always good to pick up a lefty pitcher. He’s tall and can put on some muscle in his first few years in the minors.
Damn, since now we’re conceiding the season we look forward the draft even before the season starts… SMH.. nothing against the author of this article, it’s just as an old time mets fans, i don’t remember draft picks, Cheap free agents, oft injured players and the GM social media being the focus of this franchise before/during the season..
Yankees and Red Sox’s fans look forward to their draft too. It is a change in the culture of baseball (and sports in general) not just a Mets things. Drafts are becoming bigger topic every year, which is why it is no surprise they are all finally getting televised instead of just the NFL.
Stupid 21st Century with their more information and educated fanbase.
I don’t see the point in drafting a reliever in the first round. No way the Brewers take a relief pitcher in the first round when they could get plenty of those in the later rounds. I wish people would stop thinking that teams would take a relief pitcher in the first round because in most cases it won’t happen. To take a relief pitcher when they could’ve gotten Nick Williams, Lucas Sims, and/or Kyle Zimmer is to just punt on the draft.
It is not a guarantee he will be a reliever it is just likely. He is starting for Duke right now, it is just likely he winds up in the pen. He has top 5 stuff on the mound, but he height could hold him back. Wouldn’t be a surprise for a team to take a chance on him in the 1st round if they think he can stink or want to push him quick as a closer ala Chad Cordero.
Toronto’s second pick remains protected under the new cba, with that being said I wouldn’t mind Wacha with either pick.
Thanks I wasn’t aware of that. Yeah they have enough super high ceiling guys right now that a Wacha type would compliment their system well.