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• Mr North Jersey January 25, 2012 at 1:46 pm

  A lot of buzz today about Ike now that Pujols and Fielder are gone from the NL and Howard not being expected to start the season on time.
• jessep January 25, 2012 at 3:21 pm

  I think Joe your prediction is a little utopian. If Ted Berg wrote it people would scream at him!

  I mean I’ll happily be wrong, but I just don’t see a 35 HR 110 RBI year for Ike in 2012.

  I’m waiting to actually see him on the field before I project him to be honest. He’s still very young and missing that much time can set a player back. It’s not easy to come off your 1st long term injury.

  There has to be some form of rust to shake off

  I will say this though: The balance of power for NL 1B shifted big time towards the Mets for the future yesterday. Other than Votto, I wouldn’t take another 1B for the next 5-7 years over Davis in the NL.

  I find it curious that Gaby Sanchez gets no Top 5 love. I’m curious to see what happens with him and Brandon Belt this year
  • jessep January 25, 2012 at 3:22 pm

    And I totally forgot to mention Morse. While I’d still take Ike over him is he not a part of the rankings because he split time in LF last year? I’m not sure what to expect from him but he was a monster last year and to not be in the Top 5 is surprising
    • jessep January 25, 2012 at 3:24 pm

      I assume its because LaRoche is their starting 1B as of now? But I’m not sure how long an under .200 hitter keeps the job from Morse (assuming they can find a warm body for LF)
• Anthony Marte January 25, 2012 at 3:11 pm

  Bill James’ numbers might not be that conservative. I think Davis will have a big year as well (not as big as Joe is predicting) but expectations need to be checked here.

  Davis played 36 games in 2011 that would lead someone to believe he will produce at the level that Joe is suggesting. Just 36 games. I’m positive Davis will develop into that player at some point, but you can’t be sure that he’s up there with Joey Votto just yet. Specifically with RBI, who is batting in front of Davis to even be driven in? Andres Torres? Ruben Tejada? Maybe Wright can get on base consistently and thats it. Davis will have to produce at a monstrous rate to reach 110 RBI.

  But here’s hoping I’m wrong.
• Greg Pomes January 25, 2012 at 3:22 pm

  Bill James’ numbers are way off. Not surprisingly. I think Ike can hit .300 with 35-40 HR’s, especially now that the fences are moved in. Unfortunately his RBI total might not be all that high since he’s got mostly backups except for David Wright in front of him. Like I said yesterday this makes Ike one of the top 1B in the league. One of the very few bright spots this season will be Ike Davis as long as the medical staff doesn’t get their hands on him again.
  • jessep January 25, 2012 at 3:30 pm

    I mean they are just projections, anything can happen. 35-40 HR to me is a much bigger stretch to happening than 25 HR is.

    Of all qualified hitters only 8 hit 35+ HR last year.

    Call me old fashioned but I’ll take Bill James projection over yours until I actually see Ike Davis hit 20 HR in a season
  • Bayonne Mets Fan January 25, 2012 at 3:32 pm

    who the hell cares what Bill James thinks. It makes no difference what he predicts or any fan predicts.

    Ike Davis will hit a minimum of 35 HRs. That’s right – that’s the least he’ll hit in 2012 if he’s healthy. He would have no doubt hit well over 30 this year if he didn’t get hurt – and with the fences move in he’s 50/50 40 or more, but a minimum of 35.
    • Donal January 25, 2012 at 4:03 pm

      You care otherwise you wouldn’t have reacted so angerly.
      • jessep January 25, 2012 at 4:05 pm

        I actually prefered the “It makes no difference what he predicts or any fan predicts.”

        then we get to see his prediction. Not sure where he falls between Bill James – Fan but… yeah
• Hitman January 25, 2012 at 3:42 pm

  Bold prediction: Ike Davis will hit somewhere between 36-40 HRs this season and will be a top 5 NL MVP candidate. I picked him to hit 33 last season and probably would’ve surpassed that if…well, you know what happened.
  • srt January 25, 2012 at 4:11 pm

    I like your thinking…
• any January 25, 2012 at 3:51 pm

  Losing Ike last year was a killer.
• Russell Zanca January 25, 2012 at 3:52 pm

  Right now, he’s about the most exciting Met. I am praying to the Pantheon of Baseball that this guy has a full, healthy year. Love watching him in the field and at the plate.

  While my expectations are as low as the rest of you, I am holding out hope for a 2012 Mets team that gives it all it’s got and plays well together. Davis can be and should be a huge part of this.

  I like Ike.
  • any January 25, 2012 at 4:06 pm

    hard to say what this team will actually accomplish this season, but I do expect to see a lot of long HRs off of RH pitchers with Ike and Duda.

    if Wright and Bay are taking care of LHP, and whoever is hitting 1 and 2 are getting on base at a decent clip, they should score a good amount of runs.

    not sure what the order will be, but even if they just replicate last year, tejada/murphy will be getting on, and wright/davis/duda/Bay (maybe!) certainly have the potential and/or history of power hitting and driving in runs.

    tails off of course by the 7 hole, but most teams have that problem!
    • srt January 25, 2012 at 4:16 pm

      Not sure what the lineup will look like this year but I’m really hoping the bottom half doesn’t turn out to be a black hole.
• srt January 25, 2012 at 4:11 pm

  Projections are just that….projections.

  I think with Ike it’s a bit harder to project what he might do if healthy this entire season coming up.
  In 2010, he did well when he first came up, struggled in the dog days of summer, and looked like he made the adjustments he needed to in September. That was very encouraging to see from a rookie.

  He got off to a good start last year but of course, small sample size.

  If I had to predict, I’d say James’ numbers aren’t all that far off. I think 25-30 HRs is a good projection. I think the following year should be even better – maybe more in line with Joe D.’s predictions.
  I wonder why James only predicts 141 games though? Is he worried about that ankle? If no, why would he miss 21 games?

  Goes without saying though if he does better than what James predicts – more in line with Joe Ds, it’ll make my day.
• Donal January 25, 2012 at 4:33 pm

  Off Topic: Yoenis Cespedes officially a free agent
  • Mr North Jersey January 25, 2012 at 4:41 pm

    Let the bidding begin!
    • XtreemIcon January 25, 2012 at 7:11 pm

      Hard to see the Marlins not heavily interested. Whatever team signs him will do it for roughly 5/35.
      • jessep January 25, 2012 at 7:18 pm

        I’d imagine the Nats will be involved also
        • XtreemIcon January 25, 2012 at 7:38 pm

          Sickles loves Brian Goodwin, but he’s not close and might have to move to a corner, anyway. Hood could be on the rise and is closer, and you figure any RF is a stopgap for the next year or two. I don’t know if the Nats get into a bidding war if they can have Hood, Goodwin and Harper in three years unless they have a fallback trade for one Hood or Goodwin. I’m not concerned about what to do with Morse because LaRoche stinks, anyway
• Joey D. January 25, 2012 at 7:55 pm

  To be honest, we don’t really know what kind of season Ike will have coming up.

  He has been away from the game for almost a year and that could very well have more a negative impact on him picking up where he left off than with a proven hitter, like we saw with Carlos Beltran. We have to remember he is now a year behind in the learning stage of his early MLB career. He still needs to become more familiar with the pitchers and even more so, we need to see if the pitchers have already became more familiar with him.

  I’m a big Ike Davis fan and really expect him to put up great numbers, especially with the fences now within reasonable striking distances, however, I recognize having to curve my extreme enthusiasm knowing he still has to face the challenges that all sophomores have to I’m sure he will exceed all expectations and will become an all-star first baseman, but he still has to prove himself beyond being just a rookie sensation and being hailed as the second best first baseman in the league at this time is still a bit premature. But I surely do expect to say so come the end of the season.
• Bob L January 25, 2012 at 7:55 pm

  Assuming Ike is fully recovered from his ankle / bone injury and he stays healthy, a 30HR/108RBI season is achievable for Ike if he plays in 140+ games and has an official 560AB’s–production approximate to his productivity rate last season (admittedly a small sample size) before the injury.
• Mike Lloyd January 26, 2012 at 1:29 am

  I just hope the kid stays away from the injuries with this medical staff…if he can, I think he can have a all star season. His productivity will no doubt be affected by those in front and behind him; with such uncertainty, i’d stay to the lower side of any grandiose projections but if he plays 140-150 games I could see .285 with 28 and 98 ribbies. If he gets any kind of table setting with consistancy or a break like Bay having a hugh comeback season hitting behind him, I could see .290/30/105.
• Alex68 January 26, 2012 at 8:44 am

  With all that being said, a 69-93 record is what i really cared about.. with this front office i am scared as hell that if ike davis put up those numbers he too might be traded for more prospects.. hell, depodesta wanna imitate oakland, last i checked, they’re horrible, finish in last place and are now getting rid of all good players for “prospects”…
  • XtreemIcon January 26, 2012 at 8:58 am

    Why would they trade a guy who makes nothing?
  • any January 26, 2012 at 8:59 am

    what Oakland has been forced to do is all about having the worst stadium and probably lowest revenues in all of MLB. No one is trying to imitate them. Literally the only way they can compete is to hit the jackpot with a bunch of prospects all sticking and thriving at the saem time. The only other real option is to blow the budget on 1 (maybe 2 guys) and have the rest be pure filler, and hope to tread mediocrity for a while.
  • Mike Lloyd January 26, 2012 at 4:11 pm

    I wouldn’t b surprised Alex if he was dealt after this season if he has a .290/30/105 type season. If the ownership can manage to sell their ‘Mr. Met’ shares (thats how I ll refer to them from now on) and hang on, he would stay. But all bets are off if they don’t, they might have to deal him because his arbitration award could exceed CRG.s cost certainty plan for 2013 payroll figure.
  • metsaddict77 January 26, 2012 at 4:29 pm

    i share the same fear, alex.when we start trading young talent for prospects there’s a real problem.no team who wants to compete would ever do this.that’s why i don’t like sandy,anything that helps the wilpons keep their claws sunck into to this team, is only gonna be bad news for us fans.
• kingpin78 January 26, 2012 at 2:10 pm

  im so very excited for our future All Star/MVP first baseman. This just made me giddy. I didnt realize this that now he is probably considered the best first baseman in the league except for Votto. Everyone seems to think that we will no doubt be even worse than last year. But with a healthy Ike and a healthy Murph, and Wright having a bounce back year, and any kind of improvement from Bay, and the progression of Thole and Tejada, I dont see any reason why we cant easily more than offset the lose of Reyes. In fact, i totally see us scoring even more runs than last, when we had Reyes having a career year. So its just a matter of if we could get any type of consistent quality from our starting pitching and I really think we could be in the race for the wild card come September. Excited to see a much improved quality bullpen. And what if…what if Yohan can return to even 85% of his old form….and start 31 games, going 14-7 with a 3.39 ERA?…..hmmmm. Not too far fetched if you ask me… Am I the only diehard Mets fan thats actually excited and optimistic for the season to start?…

  I am equally excited to attend some Buffalo Bisons games when they visit the Scranton Yankees…hopefully to catch one of Harvey’s or Familia’s starts. I live in NE PA, so Scranton is close by. And Bingamton is only an hour away, so will be headed there hopefully to see Wheeler pitch. Or if either of our other two studs are still in AA….

  Have a great day everyone. Thnx Joe D, and all the commenters that make me come back here every day.
  • any January 26, 2012 at 4:39 pm

    Don’t forget Duda, who is going to have a huge year.

    I am actually looking forward to the season too, and think they are going to do better than most people are expecting.

    I do, however, think you are just a “tad” optomistic on what Johan is going to do! Anything he gives you will se somewhat of a miracle, but a full season of good numbers is an incredible longshot.
• Future face of the franchise: Ike Davis | Mets At Bat January 31, 2012 at 9:46 am

  [...] James projects Davis to hit .288 with 25 home runs and 80 RBI in 141 games in 2012. Joe D of Metsmerized Online generously predicts Davis to hit .295 with 35 homers and 110 [...]