Jan
18
2012

Taking A Deeper Look Into Pelfrey’s Contract

An article by Jessep

When things are going bad with a franchise, there are times when fans will look at every decision made and search for the negatives.

Recently, it seemed as though some hysteria erupted at the fact that Mike Pelfrey signed a 1 year deal worth $5.7 million to avoid arbitration.

Sometimes I find that people comment on things they either do not understand or refuse to understand. For me, if I don’t understand a process, I ask questions or research the answers.

Rather than get further into that. I said to myself, “Self…maybe these angry fans need an education on arbitration.”

Now let me be clear, I am not an expert on the system, however, I didn’t just discover its existence yesterday because Pelfrey got a contract like some seem to have done. If you wanted Pelfrey totally gone, well that ship has sailed. They already entered the process, so complaining that they gave him a contract is something you’ve had over a month to do.

First let’s start with the actual arbitration process. (Not related to the old Free Agent compensation methods)

Players with at least 3 but less than 6 years of service time in the big leagues are eligible
The top 17% of players with at least 2 but less than 3 years of service time are known as “Super 2” players. To qualify this player must have at least 86 days of service time in the previous year.
The club’s salary offer to a player may NOT be less than 80% of his total salary from the prior year, and may NOT be 70% less than his salary from the year prior to that.

Then…

The player (agent) submit a salary figure to a 3 person panel of professional arbitrators. Just as an FYI, they probably aren’t Mets fans.
The team does the same thing as the player.
If both sides can not reach an agreement, then hearings are scheduled in February.

Then…

At the hearing, each group has 1 hour to present their case to the 3-person panel. Then they get an extra 30 minutes to respond/refute anything said by the opposing party.
The player MUST be in attendance for the hearing, but the Agent does the talking usually.
A team executive or attorney usually represents the team.

Then, the panel looks at both offers and considers the following:

Player contribution on the field and in clubhouse (“leadership”)
The club’s record and attendance
Any and all of the player’s individual accomplishments. Including Awards, All-Star appearances, and playoff performance.
The salaries of comparable players in the player’s service-time class. For players with LESS than 5 years, the class one year ahead of him is also considered.

Both sides can NOT reference the following:

- Team finances
- Previous offers made during negotiations
- Comments from press or salaries in other sports/occupations

So now that you have the nuts and bolts, let’s take a look at Mike Pelfrey. Please keep in mind, 2011 isn’t the only year that Pelfrey has pitched. It’s not the only thing that is looked at when determining his future salary.

The arbitrators are not “saber-heads,” or anything like that. So you need to remember that when making a case for or against a player. A team attorney isn’t going to reference a pitcher’s xFIP in order to win a case because it will likely go over their heads.

The most basic stat and easiest to argue for a pitcher is his Win totals. There are only 15 pitchers with 4-5 years of MLB service time with EQUAL or MORE wins than Mike Pelfrey.

They are: Shaun Marcum, Jair Jurrjens, Matt Garza, Yovani Gallardo, Fausto Carmona, John Danks, Ubaldo Jiminez, Ricky Nolasco, Tim Lincecum, Chad Billingsley, James Shields, Cole Hamels, Jon Lester and Jered Weaver.

So let’s take a look at the basics here. I’ll give you there 2012 salary (or arbitration demands), plus their W-L, IP, ERA, Awards Won etc.

Just to keep it clear, Pelfrey earned $3.92million last year and is making $5.675 million this year and has 4+ years of service time (but less than 5). He is 50-54 for his career with a 4.40 ERA and 876.2 innings pitched in 150 games.

Shaun Marcum
Salary: 2011 $3.95, awaiting contract for 2012 through arbitration.
Service Time: 5 years
Stats: 50-32 3.77 ERA 792.2 innings pitched in 153 games.

Jair Jurrjens
Salary: $5.5 million avoided arbitration in 2012.
Service Time: 4 years
Stats: 50-33 3.40 ERA 702.1 innings pitched in 115 Games.

Matt Garza
Salary: In 2011 it was $5.95 million, according to Jon Heyman he is requesting $10.225 million to Cubs offer of $7.95 million
Service Time: 4 years
Stats: 52-54 3.83 ERA 923.1 innings pitched in 152 games.

Yovani Gallardo
Salary: $5.5 million in 2012.
Service Time: 4 years
Stats: 53-34 3.63 ERA 712.1 innings pitched in 118 games.

Fausto Carmona
Salary: $7 million in 2012.
Service Time: 5 years
Stats: 53-66 4.59 ERA 934.2 innings pitched in 181 games.

John Danks
Salary: $500,000 in 2012 (Insanely back loaded deal, bumps to $14 million in 2013)
Service Time: 5 years
Stats: 54-56 4.03 ERA 917.2 innings pitched in 150 games.

Ubaldo Jiminez
Salary: $4.2 million in 2012
Service Time: 4 years
Stats: 60-49 3.76 ERA 916.1 innings pitched in 149 games.

Ricky Nolasco
Salary: $9 million in 2012
Service Time: 5 years
Stats: 64-51 4.50 ERA 922.1 innings pitched in 164 games

Tim Lincecum
Salary: Requested $21 million this year, Giants offering $17 million
Service Time: 4 years
Stats: 69-41 2.98 ERA 1,028 innings pitched in 156 games.

Chad Billingsley
Salary: $9 million in 2012
Service Time: 5 years
Stats: 70-52 3.68 ERA 1,013 innings pitched in 192 games.

James Shields
Salary: $7 million in 2012
Service Time: 5 years
Stats: 72-63 3.96 ERA 1,227 innings pitched in 185 games.

Cole Hamels
Salary: $15 million in 2012
Service Time: 5 years
Stats: 74-54 3.39 ERA 1,161 innings pitched in 181 games

Jon Lester
Salary: $7.62 million in 2012
Service Time: 5 years
Stats: 76-34 3.53 ERA 957.2 innings pitched in 155 games.

Jered Weaver
Salary: $14 million in 2012
Service Time: 5 years
Stats: 82-47 3.31 ERA 1,131 innings pitched in 177 games.

Keep in mind these are the ONLY pitchers with 0-5 years of MLB service time with as many or more wins than Pelfrey. Take their salaries, plus a middle of the ground arbitration for Lincecum/Garza and you have an average salary of $8.305 million (this is without any raise for Marcum as of now).

So Mike Pelfrey who is “worse” than all of these guys is making roughly $2.5-$3.0 million LESS than the average salary of the only pitchers with more wins than him in his service class.

When you consider the fact that Pelfrey has averaged 32 starts a year over the last 4 years, been asked to be the “ace” of his team due to injury to Santana, won 15 games for a bad team in 2010, who has played through injuries and pitched 15 games in 2011 that he could have won despite his poor record.

I’m not going to weep if Pelfrey is ever traded, but to sit here and flip out about the fact he got $5.7 million to avoid arbitration is really just baffling to me,

The reason the Mets avoided arbitration with him is not because of Sandy Alderson, it’s because the Mets (and Pelfrey) do NOT want a 3 panel group dictating how much they have to spend (or earn) in 2012.

They asses the financial market, and do the arbitrator’s job for them and try to come up with a figure that best suits both parties so that they don’t have to stand in a room and tell Mike Pelfrey to his face why he’s not worth a $6 million deal.

Every team does this. Not just the ones GM’d by Sandy Alderson. Every team.

About the Author: Michael J. Branda

My time with MMO began in July of 2009 when I wrote a Fan Post defending Omar Minaya (before it was cool to do that.) I grew up a Mets fan with the mid 1980's teams. My favorite Met of all-time is (and was) Wally Backman. When it comes to sabermetrics versus old school thinking, I like to think I meet in the middle. I believe thinking of new ways to get answers is helpful, especially when the same way has not produced results. However, I think over-thinking certain situations can get you into trouble. I'm excited for the new regime, because I believe they have pieces in place to focus on several aspects of the Mets organization. I've waited this long for a World Series, waiting a few more years for another chance isn't going to kill me.

27 Comments + Add Comment

XtreemIcon January 18, 2012 at 3:42 pm

I’m not mad that he’s worth that money via arbitration, that’s what he would have made with any team going with the same process. I just question whether or not non-tendering him or trading him beforehand was the better option. I wrote here right as the season started, before he had the weak 2011 (http://metsmerizedonline.com/2011/04/the-future-of-michael-alan-pelfrey.html) that he might be worth $6 mil to arbiters and I was pretty close. Maybe a little better luck and I would have been dead on. Not because I’m smarter than everyone else, but because I know how arbitration works.

But if $6 was going to be his going rate (and if I knew that, you can bet the Mets did), would that $6 mil be better spent on getting Bedard in here, or giving Dontrelle a shot for a fraction of that. Zach Duke is still out there and Armando Galarraga signed a minor league deal. Dontrelle and Bedard are injury risks, but none of those can realistically be THAT much worse than Pelfrey, right?

I do understand two things. I understand Pelfrey’s peripherals were a smidge worse than his career totals, so it’s not impossible he goes 15-9 again. If the Mets score runs for him and catch the ball, why not? His xFIP was 4.31 in 2010 and 4.55 last year. Same K/BB. The thing I point to is the significant rise in home runs (and the Mets brought the fences in…….nice job, guys). If he keeps the ball in the park, nothing else about his game has changed so drastically that we can’t expect an average performance out of him.

I also understand given all this, his age and his year of team control left, he could have some trade value during the season. Alderson’s trades that weren’t salary dumps Beltran and Pagan) were really good, so I would expect if Pelfrey attracts offers, the Mets would benefit.

In that regard, it’s a damned if you do, damned if you don’t thing as far as bringing him back for that money. The Mets took a risk.
- jessep January 18, 2012 at 4:01 pm
  
  Thanks for the comments (both of them)
  
  I think realistically, he has more value now that he’s signed than before hand. I think its got to be tougher to sell a player like Pelfrey who has no contract yet than having him locked up for the year. You know what you’re getting now. Before maybe Pelfrey would want to go to arbitration with a new team? Maybe he wanted more $?
  
  Lots of question marks, plus to me, his value is likely pretty low on the trade market (sound familar?). So why deal him today for the same price you can get tomorrow if he doesn’t improve? Pelf has historically been an every other year pitcher for some odd reason. So if he gets off to a quick start, perhaps his value increases enough to bring back something rather than just warm bodies?
  
  I get people wanting to see him non-tendered. But that’s more of a “sick of him” attitude than thinking about the business… and that ship has sailed. He was going to be tendered so why worry about that now?
  
  I personally would prefer Pelfrey to Dontrelle + Bedard. I prefer to know a guy can stay healthy. To me, Bedard and or Dontrelle aren’t bad guys to take a flyer on, but give me the guy who gives you 30+ starts at an average performance level over 2 guys you may need to find minor league replacements for.
  
  For all of Pelfrey’s bad, he’s reliable (yet inconsistent if that makes sense ha) The biggest flaw with him is that for the last 2.5 years people have called him an Ace. That’s like calling Mark Sanchez the Jets’ Aaron Rodgers. It’s just not who he is.
  - XtreemIcon January 18, 2012 at 4:09 pm
    
    I was just throwing names out there. I think Pelfrey’s worth more than one of those guys, but maybe not more than three of them for the same price. You just don’t know what you’re going to get from him aside from a decent #4/5 performance. I’m not sure he’ll have enough value to another team with those numbers.
    
    If he was non-tendered and Bedard was here, along with Willis and Galarraga in Buffalo with Schwinden, how bad would that be? Worse than Pelfrey? Maybe. Maybe not. I don’t think there’s a right or wrong answer to the question “What should the Mets have done with Pelfrey?”
XtreemIcon January 18, 2012 at 3:47 pm

Also, really well done article. Good research and information. Two very enthusiastic thumbs up. Fine holiday fun.
Jeff January 18, 2012 at 3:59 pm

I totally disagree with the premise that the arbitrator is only capable of understanding W-L record. I understand the arbitration process and how much he is required to earn but their is no basis for him getting a raise based on a sub par 2011 and a career in general that has been poor.
- jessep January 18, 2012 at 4:06 pm
  
  Jeff: I’m just saying that if you want to come here and use a pitchers xFIP or whatever “new ish” statistic to make a case against Pelfrey, I believe it likely will fall upon deaf ears. If you don’t follow sabermetrics, how will you appeal to me walking into a room and telling you all about a player based on stats you don’t fully understand?
  
  Brian Kenney isn’t an arbitrator.
  
  Plus, he was getting a raise no matter what. It’s so incredibly rare that a player gets a LOWER salary in arbitration that it basically never happens. He’s getting paid for his performance up until 2012, not from april-october of 2011.
  - Jeff January 18, 2012 at 4:23 pm
    
    I think even more comment stats like ERA and Strikeouts can be used to display his general poor performance. Also I don’t think you need to walk into a room and start throwing xFIP but I think an arbitrator can understand any baseball statistic offered and explained in a reasonable manner, you have in hour in their, you can’t just talk about wins for 60 minutes. I also think any reasonable analysis of Pelf to similar pitchers would show his mediocrity.
    
    I am not saying they should pay him less but the same or not a 44% raise would be acceptable. I think his whole career has been pretty poor, not just 2011.
    
    Appreciate the civil discourse as well, it’s a rarity in comments sections.
    - jessep January 18, 2012 at 4:33 pm
      
      Jeff: I’d say Pelfrey has teetered between slightly below average and average. If he was the Mets #4 starter as he should be, expectations would be calmed a bit. I agree that K’s, and other stats can be used. But to be honest, the point is still valid is it not. If those guys listed here are deemed “better” and he’s making on average about $3mil less than them, that’s a fair wage scale to me.
      
      I am a strikeout kinda guy, which is why I actually am not high on Pelfrey. But I also recognize that it’s not a big seller when it comes to a contract. If Pelfrey’s agent was good he could easily make a case that Pelf has earned close to if not 5.7 mil in my opinion and then that means the Mets have to stand in front of their own guy and say essentially why he isn’t… then try to go sell him to another team?
      - Donal January 18, 2012 at 4:34 pm
        
        “If Pelfrey’s agent was good he could easily make a case that Pelf has earned close to if not 5.7 mil in my opinion ”
        
        and we all know who Pelf’s agent is
        
        jessep January 18, 2012 at 6:48 pm
        
        right. I was using a general “any good agent” there… but yes, Boras is the best.
      - Jeff January 18, 2012 at 4:41 pm
        
        My point is that he is making the same amount of money of guys who are way better. A timely example would be David Price, who is a fantastic pitcher just signed for about a million dollars less. I honestly can’t imagine what Pelf’s agent’s argument would be. Besides Mike pitches a lot of innings, what other accomplishments could he point to that merit higher pay?
        
        XtreemIcon January 18, 2012 at 4:50 pm
        
        Jeff, the Price example speaks to the service time and previous salary aspect of the arbitration process. This is Price’s first foray into arbitration, and he made $2.08 mil last season, as opposed to Pelfrey who’s old hat at this made a little less than $4 mil. Price got a raise north of 200% this year, and Pelf’s raise was 44%. I’d say Price is five times a better pitcher than Pelf, wouldn’t you?
        
        Jeff January 18, 2012 at 5:05 pm
        
        I see where you are coming from and I total appreciate the argument, my point is more to overall value. Pelfrey is not worth 5.65 million dollars and if lined up with others guys in that range will fall to the bottom of the pack if not the very bottom. I don’t think anyone can argue that the current Mets salaries line up with the actual values of players. Obviously their are many reasons for that but the point holds true that Mike is being paid more than he is worth.
        
        XtreemIcon January 18, 2012 at 5:13 pm
        
        A lot of what you’re saying is true, and that speaks to in-exactitude of the arbitration process as a whole, which is why teams and players generally don’t get there. Contracts are almost always given instead of hearings and the price of avoiding a hearing may be a little more than what the performance dictates the price should be.
        
        jessep January 18, 2012 at 6:59 pm
        
        Right, in 2010 only 8 players went all the way to the hearing. Think about how many players are arbitration eligible and only EIGHT go the distance?
        
        That tells you all you need to know about what both sides see in the system
- Donal January 18, 2012 at 4:16 pm
  
  His career really hasn’t been poor. It’s been average. Being mediocre is still better than being “teh sux”.
  
  He obviously has not lived up to the expectations set for him. But still, he’s a servicable #4 starter.
  - srt January 18, 2012 at 5:01 pm
    
    Good point.
    If he wasn’t a high draft pick and he wasn’t hyped as ‘ace’ type material and he made his debut with expectations as slotting in at a 4 type pitcher, then he there probably wouldn’t have been much outrage at keeping him this year.
srt January 18, 2012 at 4:59 pm

Excellent article and follow up comments by all here. Thanks for the easy to read explanations.

I won’t pretend to still understand it all (case in point KRod’s 2012 salary) but I fully expected Pelfrey to get somewhere in the ballpark of what they gave him.

I know one thing, Pelfrey had better have a career year here in 2012 or he’d better invest this salary wisely. If he’s mediocre or less than that (which is entirely possible) this might be the most money he sees in any one year as a pitcher.
- XtreemIcon January 18, 2012 at 5:20 pm
  
  SRT, I can make a guess about K-Rod. My guess is he wasn’t worth the $12 mil he earned in 2011 (that’s not a guess, I think we all know he wasn’t…the guess is that HE knew it). Slice some off the top, the consider he’s leaving his closer role, which always makes more money then their set-up counterparts, and we get $8 mil. I don’t think it was as completely cut and dry as all that, but that’s likely the long and short of it.
  - srt January 18, 2012 at 5:58 pm
    
    Thanks. I figured the discussion had something to do with the team claiming he would/should be paid as a set up guy, not a closer.
    
    I’m still surprised he took that arbitration. I’m sure he could have got at least a one year deal from some team to be their closer but maybe the decision was based on he didn’t think he’d get even the 8 million.
    - XtreemIcon January 18, 2012 at 6:24 pm
      
      Well, Papelbon is the only closer to sign a deal worth more than $9 mil annually, and if K-Rod was honest with himself, he probably realized he’s not as good as Bell and Valverde and Madson, so $8 mil seemed like a fair amount.
      - Hank January 18, 2012 at 11:08 pm
        
        Arbitration like most lawyerly things, takes precedents very seriously. With K-Rod, his market was set by closers (Papelbon, Bell, and Madson). His loss in salary has less to do with his “new” role as a set-up man, and more to do with the market set by his peers.
        
        Oh this is all about Pelfrey. That salary isn’t the worse thing in the world. The screwy arbitration system is what it is. Most likely, the Mets will hope for a good first half, and then a trade for prospects. This is the plan in 2012, and I’m fine with it. Hope your players turn into trade-able assets to free up salary (so money is used more efficiently, all of our dream I know) and add to the prospect base because the more high-end prospects you have…the more likely you are to hit on a few of them.
jdon January 18, 2012 at 9:38 pm

I am sick of Mike. I defended him for 3 years. I thought that split change would really upgrade him but he overused it. He also lost the sink on his sinker. The most frustrating aspect of Pelfrey is the complete absence of an out pitch, which the split change was for a short time. Watching batters foul pitch after pitch off until Pelfrey gave in to them was excruciating. His stuff was overrated somewhat, but his heart was overrated big time. Still, this is the kind of money stiff pitchers get from arbitrators. They might be able to trade him during the season. I hope they do. Watching him work is painful. Having said that, Bedard does not float my boat. Another mental case. And has anyone seen Dontrelle pitch the last five years. He is a batting practice pitcher. Who also happens to have severe anxiety problems. Actually, Pelfrey is better than those guys. And I don;t want Pelfrey.
Chris January 19, 2012 at 2:23 am

this civil, mature, intelligent adult baseball discussion is like “CORE” kryptonite.
- jessep January 19, 2012 at 8:58 am
  
  hence why you don’t see any of “them” in here
Alan January 19, 2012 at 1:39 pm

You can interpret the stats and the Pelfrey history any way that you choose but when I look at Mike I see a guy who should be pounding the strike zone and going after hitters throughout a game. But when Mike gets into trouble instead of doing so he reverts backwards and becomes timid and loses his command. He may have been asked to be the ace once Santana got hurt but he does not have the right mental strength to be that guy……

But as with most things in this world of free agency and absurd salaries…Pelfrey gets millions!

Makes me laugh that our only Hall of Fame player who personified confidence, talent and 10 years of excellence par none got run out of town when he wanted to be paid like the one year wonders like Andy Messersmith. In this market Tom Seaver could have signed a 10 year contract worth 300 million bucks…

May M Donald Grant be resurrected from the grave and then die a slow but painful death.
Mr North Jersey January 19, 2012 at 1:46 pm

Jessep, out of curiosity what was the source you used for the arbitration rules?

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