24
2012
MMO Fair Foul: A 94 Win Season For The Mets?
An article by 
This edition of Fair or Foul features an excerpt from SNY’s Ted Berg who posted the following on his blog Ted Quarters. Ted says that in a best case scenario the Mets could win 94 games in 2012.
So here’s what I’ve got: I’m painting with very broad strokes here and doing all sorts of shoddy math, but the way I see it if absolutely everything falls right for the Mets, they could get about 33 wins’ worth of production beyond the replacement level from their position players and maybe 14 from their pitchers. If a replacement-level team can be expected to produce about 47.4 wins, these Mets, in this best-case scenario, would wind up with about 94.
Again: I can’t stress enough how inexact a science this is. And I guess the conclusion really isn’t all that stunning: If the Mets enjoy an unprecedented run of good health and every single player on the team produces as well as anyone could reasonably expect at the season’s outset, the team would be good enough to make the playoffs. I expect this would prove true for most teams. And that doesn’t really account for any unexpected Jose Bautista success, which happens on rare occasion (and to lesser degrees than Bautista’s, of course), or much assistance from the farm system.
The counter, of course, is that the Mets need nothing to go wrong to get to 94 wins, and several things will inevitably go wrong. How many things and how wrong they go will determine how far away the Mets finish from their best possible outcome, and since their best possible outcome is probably only a Wild Card berth, it doesn’t make a postseason run look particularly likely.
But in short: The good news is the Mets do probably have the talent to get to the playoffs if absolutely everything goes right. The bad news is that never happens, and they don’t have a lot of flexibility for when it doesn’t. ~ Ted Berg
I think if you ran this type of analysis on all 30 teams, you would probably find that the middle-twenty teams would all win 90+ games, and that the top-five teams like the Phillies and Yankees would win 105+ games. Of course it’s rare for any team to go through an entire season with out injuries, slumps, gut wrenching losses, etc. It happens to the best of us. That’s why you play the games.
So where will the Mets finish as far as wins this season?
Given where the Mets finished last season in the NL East, and the fact that most teams in that division improved while the Mets got considerably worse, there’s a strong possibility they will finish in last place and win no more than 70 games. But this is baseball and anything can happen once they play those games. What if Duda puts up numbers like Ryan Braun and Ike Davis does his best Ryan Howard impersonation? Or if Johan Santana comes back and is light’s out? You just never know and that’s the beauty of this game – its unpredictability.
About the Author: Joe DeCaro
I'm a lifelong Mets fan who loves writing and talking about the Amazins' 24/7. From the Miracle in 1969 to the magic of 1986, and even the near misses in '73 and '00, I've experienced it all - the highs and the lows. I started Mets Merized Online in 2005 to feed my addiction. Follow me on Twitter @metsmerized.
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ROFL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
This sh** just made my week!!!! hahahahahahahahahahahaha!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
thanks Joe D!!!!!!!!!!!! hahahahahahahahahah 94 wins!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! LMFMFAMFOL!!!!
I agree that anything is possible. I would expect that this team is capable of 78 wins. I also agree that most teams could possibly win 90 games this of course is impossible so it comes down to the games themselves. I really think the Phillies are going to surprise everyone, IMO they are going to fall on their faces this year and finish third in the division. Braves, Nats, Phils, Marlins, Mets if I had to guess the standings at the end of 2012.
Ted Berg, bless his little heart…
You think he was semi-trolling with this one?
I do, yes.
Semi?
Well, his humor does tend to point out some truths. He generally uses his jokes to bring some reason to the conversation.
I don’t think it was totally about pissing people off for a response.
Well, the only “reason” here was explaining how inexact WAR is. Mainly, I just think he was bored.
Here is the problem that this guy has with his Math and I won’t fault him for it because he went way out of his way to make sure we knew that HE knew there was a problem with it.
It’s a problem with WAR in general….
Sure our War say 94 wins but only because his math doesn’t take into account the WAR of Philly, Nats and Marlins when calculating!
Those are the teams we will play the most!
Sure if you increase the WAR of your team technically it should be better but the problem is WAR only works if the team you built is going to PLAY those Phantom Players war compares the REAL players to!
But it seems some folks just have nothing better to do than to provide THERAPY for themselves because they realize this team is going to lose and suck more!
While some others just want to promote a dismantling of a team as something good!
I wonder how many good days Sandy will have when we wind up with less than 70 wins this season?
But hey we got Wheeler! Rah Rah Sis Boom Bah! Slash Sandy Crash Sandy Rah Rah Rah!
Guys waving Pom Poms…How Butch!
I thought butch was for chicks that looked like dudes… anyhow.
you make a valid point on the WAR issues. With the Phils as they are, the Braves as they are, the Nats (+fielder) where they are and the improved Marlins… It’s going to be a murderers row and the best case scenario of adding a set amount of WAR is cancelled out by the other teams huge WARs.
Adding Fielder to the NL East is not going to be fun…
Yeah But Sandy said we are going to be Fun to watch…
I wonder if he meant it in the same way WIPEOUT is FUN to watch!
lol
Fielder a Tiger…
I’m guessing that you’re not familiar with Ted Berg’s ‘tongue in cheek’ type style of writing.
There is tounge in cheek and then there is Hans Christen Anderson….
It read more like a desperate attempt to feel better about a team that is truly going to be horrible!
Kind of like saying well getting hit by a truck TECHNICALLY doesn’t hurt much because you die too quick to notice the pain!
If that were true, so what?
He just wants to feel a little up beat about his team going into Spring Training. How is that so much worse than a Unabomber-esque rant about stuff you can’t control and don’t seem to understand?
One thing to let a GM fool you into thinking he is here to make things better!
Whole other level of Stupidity to help him convince you by using a spreadsheet to sell yourself on a turd pie!
turd pie… good one…………………..
*sigh* yes, you are right. Alderson was sent here by Bud Selig to not turn around the National League franchise in the biggest market in the world. MLB has no interest at all in making the Mets a success. They just want the Wilpons to do what Loria did for a decade (and they put a gun to his head to stop doin) with one of their premier franchises.
And if Alderson were here to fix the franchise, he should have been able to do it in the first offseason he got here, or rather, the first half an offseason. It’s not like he had to do any major adminsitrative tasks or work with a painfully small budget, right?
Yeah because you think we are so much closer to a world series than we were last year right?
Really?
You believe that?
I got Bridges….you in?
Absolutely, turning around a franchise should take no longer than 18 months. All he has had to do is build up an underdeveloped farm, change the company infrastructure, acquire a bullpen, bench and half the starting rotation, shift around bloated, immovable anchor contracts all with a budget that was cut almost in half.
That can’t be too hard.
Yeah MORE THAN a YEAR to add Nimmo and Wheeler…
And it only cost him Beltran, K-Rod, and Reyes!
Wow he’s STEALING talent isn’t he?
So who is making us better AFTER losing those three?
Is Wheeler and Nimmo going to make all those saves, HRs and OBP we lost up?
You think so don’t you…Cause you also believe in Santa Claus!
Like I said I have Bridges…ready to sell!
Oh and in case you missed it when it happened…
The guy you hate Omar made the team better within the first two months of running the team!
The guy I hate? I don’t hate anyone. That is you and your band of merry morons.
As for Minaya, Beltran fell into his lap. The red Sox and Yankees simply wouldn’t give him the money he wanted ebcause they had their center fielders. and it still took an extra $20 million to convince beltran to be a Met.
Do you not see the difference between the 2 situations? How a blank check to go buy talent might be somewhat adventageous? Is it really a coup or a shock when the team with one of the highest payrolls goes and gets a big time free agent?
..or maybe smarter spending, some smart trades and not “punting” 2011 before the season started because that’s what I think he was doing by having such a terrible off season last year -combined with the roster of Reyes, Wright, Bay (before we thought he would tank again) Davis, Beltran, Pagan, the pitching staff. Then maybe the Mets contend last year because they had a nice showing for awhile despite Alderson’s lackluster effort & Davis injury
Maybe if he genuinely tried to make baseball decisions based on the money he had to work with the Mets could have lasted longer into Sept and maybe not lose 70 million.
But that thought is impossible and completely implausible to Sandy’s Army
Apparently, you don’t understand the concept of “best case scenario”. Everything would have to break right, including having a good record in the division and most likely a second place finish.
Best Case Scenario = If Pigs could FLY!
Maybe slightly more likely than that, but not by much.
Of course, you don’t seem to have that problem when it suits one of your rants. Best case scenario is the most likely one when you need it to be.
More Likely? You mean Like if Pigs could Prove M Theory?
They will have to play TWO seasons to get to 94the wins!….
I bet the Astro’s could win 100the games in that scenerio also!
‘Stros (or whatever they will be called in 2013) won’t win 100 games until well into their 3rd season…
Gotta love Ted….
This is the big problem I have with the whole Sabermetrics thinking…First off, I’m a big numbers guy…numbers don’t lie (but can be very misleading)…but a some of these numbers are biased on formulas that someone created and placed value on what they thought was a valuable skill.
I did something similar to WAR a few years ago when I was learnign how to use MS Excel. I personally think SB’s are valuable and taking the extra base is valuable to…I really don’t like hitters striking out because I think it’s better to put the ball in play and force the D to make the play then walk back to the dugout. We could argue about what is valuable or not all day, but it’s still a matter of opinion.
I think sacrifice or moving a runner over is important in the right situation. A Sabermetric belief is you don’t sacrifice because the odds of scoring a run from 1st base with no outs is grater than scoring a run from 2nd base with one out. Over a long season, this is true…but if you’re facing the best pitcher in the league and you have a hitter who is in a big slump? You’re odds are completely different than the “season average”. You’re better of having your slumping hitter bunt and let the following hitter try to get the RBI. But that also depends on who’s on deck and how many pitches have been thrown and if the hitter has had success off that pitcher.
But that is the one big hole in sabermetrics…it want’s to compare every player to the “average or replacement level player”. But who actually fits the “average player” description? There are so many different skills and abilities that no two players are alike. They also don’t take into effect the influence to the players around you. A great 1st baseman makes the whole infield better…how many good players looked great because they batted next to Bonds in a line up? Nick Swisher has sucked his whole career, but he looks pretty good in the Spanks line up full of great hitters.
Look at what happened to Wright, I feel one of the factors of Wrights decline (other than City Field and the Matt Cain FB) is the loss of Beltran and Delgado anchoring the line up. Wright’s approach is different and the pitchers facing him approach him differently.
We could go all day about listing what makes players good and how you should approach an in game strategy and what parts are needed to build a winner. The Fact is, as good as the numbers are, they are imperfect and can never fully rate a players ability because there’s more to winning games than what show up in a box score.
For me USMF I am in a similar position as you. But let me explain.
When and If I ever look at War, I don’t look at is as an exact science. Frankly, I don’t think anybody who uses it in any front office does either. It’s a tool. I can give you a hammer but if you use it wrong or use it for everything you’re screwed.
When I look at WAR I look at it in comparison with other players. IE I use to as a tool to add to an argument why player X is better than player B. I don’t just take the roster, add up WAR and call it a day.
It’s the same thing with that debate the other day about moving Bay to RF because his arm rating was better than Duda’s, because that doesn’t consider how many less throws you need to make from LF than RF.
I like the way you handled this discussion because well… you discussed.
“I personally think SB’s are valuable and taking the extra base is valuable to”
The disagreement I have with that is SBs are valuable in certain situations moreso than others. If you get caught stealing in the 9th with 0 out down by 1, that hurts your team MUCH more than getting caught stealing in the 2nd inning.
“I really don’t like hitters striking out because I think it’s better to put the ball in play and force the D to make the play then walk back to the dugout.
I actually disagree with you. I get your point about forcing the D to make the play, but lets put it like this. Runner on 1st, 1 out. Your #3 hitter is up. Would you prefer they K or ground out? I’d take the K. To me a K is just another out. You get 3 of them anyway you slice it.
I also do not believe that sabermetrics dictate exactly how you do things and when. For example, if you’re telling me Theo Epstein will want his pitcher swinging away in a 1 run game with a runner on 1st and Halladay on the mound, I’d say you’re not giving him or his manager enough credit for their baseball knowledge.
“This is the big problem I have with the whole Sabermetrics thinking…First off, I’m a big numbers guy…numbers don’t lie (but can be very misleading)…but a some of these numbers are biased on formulas that someone created and placed value on what they thought was a valuable skill. ”
And here is a problem with some of the arguments against advanced stats. People didn’t just decide a certain stat was valuable, or under/over valued. They found that to be true.
Also, the assumption that because someone favors advanced stats to some traditional ones, that they believe sabermetrics is the be all and end all.
“I did something similar to WAR a few years ago when I was learnign how to use MS Excel. I personally think SB’s are valuable and taking the extra base is valuable to”
Do the numbers back that up? By the way, no one says stealing bases or taking the extra base are sueless, just that SBs are misused and the stat can in fact be very misleading.
“I really don’t like hitters striking out because I think it’s better to put the ball in play and force the D to make the play then walk back to the dugout.”
A lot of people who use sabermetrics agree with you. Especially if the hitter in question is a line drive hitter.
“We could argue about what is valuable or not all day, but it’s still a matter of opinion. ”
Not really. value is a very tangible concept.
I think I’ll stop here. We could go into each of your points, but it has been done here ad nauseum.
And while you have presented your ideas rationally and civilly, USMF, others who will join in are not capable of that. All that would happen is a derail and a downward spiral of insults and awful typing.
contrary to what some people think, i am not a saber head (nor do I pay much attention to the fancy stats, though I do find the concept intriguing).
But, one major issue I see is often people (usually the ones that don’t like the whole saber concept) try to apply a macro concept to a micro problem. that is, something that takes a large sample size to be valid, and apply it to an individual AB.
OBP is a perfect example. Saber might “prove” that over a team/season, a higher OBP will lead to more wins. that does NOT mean, however, that every AB a batter should be trying to walk (and therefore, not trying to get a hit).
No one has ever said a batter should go looking for a walk. A hit is always better.
Just that, for a while, drawing walks (or perhaps accepting them) was under appreciated.
There is a happy medium between Luis Castillo and Steve Balboni.
My point was, there are some people (ones that post here included, but not pointing at you!) that make that leap.
too… Donal and jessep…
I wonder how the fans of the 2004 Red Sox feel on SB’s late in games…
But I I think the situation should always dictate strategy and numbers should be a tool to help teams evaluate each situation…If you have a pitcher who does a great job holding on runners and a catcher who throws out 70% of the attempted steals and a runner who isn’t great a stealing, then you don’t go…but if you have a great base runnier with a weak catcher and a pitcher who’s slow to the plate, then you should try running.
I’m a huge Reyes fan…one of his greatest assets was his effect on a pitcher when his was obviously looking to steal (it also killed me when he didn’t show he was running even if he was staying put).
I still play ball, and I pitch. There’s a huge effect on a pitcher when you have a guy who can steal on base. If you know a guy is looking to run, you want to stay away from your off speed pitches, more because you need a good location for the catcher to catch the ball then the actual differences in speed. You also want to rush the ball to the plate…you (subconsciously) screw up your mechanics or alter the grip of your pitch or put less snap on your breaking pitches.
Look at Pelf, he’ll be doing great, then he’ll let a runner on base and he ends of giving up a HR because he approach gets screwed up.
I think that if the Numbers say that Pitcher X throws 75% FBs on the first pitch, then you should know that and go up to the plate looking 1st pitch FB. You could expand that a lot…but I won’t…That’s the part of advanced metrics I think has the most value.
And yes, my numbers did back up, but to be fair…this was during the 2006 season, I was huge Wright and Reyes fans and I made the equations to show that their strengths had greater value, but I did make the numbers as fair to every player as possible. Sure, once everything was all said and done, players to had great seasons had a great rating. The numbers did show true…but (I can’t remember the final results) if Reyes had 15% better ratting than Jeter, did that really mean that Reyes was a 15% better player than Jeter? Reyes and his skills added a valuable piece to the 2006 Mets needed that maybe Jeter couldn’t deliver, but that doesn’t mean that if the Mets and Yanks swapped SS in 2006, the final records would have been different.
I still say that “value” is an intangible concept…you can put metrics in place to try to measure results as best as possible, but the situation changes what value is and that’s impossible to measure.
But because we disagree, I’ll call you a stupid butt face jerk…:) and that will make me a winner! (yes that was a stupid joke)
When I think it’s all said and done, no one stat will ever do every player equal amount of justice. Players have a ton of different roles and different skill sets. As great as Sabermetrics are, It’s almost impossible to predict what’s going to happen and you still have to visually see what a player does over a large period of time to make a fair evaluation.
“I wonder how the fans of the 2004 Red Sox feel on SB’s late in games”
So, because of one successful steal, that completely invalidates the data based on…well every steal attempt?
“I still play ball, and I pitch. There’s a huge effect on a pitcher when you have a guy who can steal on base. If you know a guy is looking to run, you want to stay away from your off speed pitches, more because you need a good location for the catcher to catch the ball then the actual differences in speed. You also want to rush the ball to the plate…you (subconsciously) screw up your mechanics or alter the grip of your pitch or put less snap on your breaking pitches.”
I prefer the Tom Seaver method: Screw the runners. Pitch the way that you are best at. If youi get the hitters out, the runners are inconsequential.
So, because of one successful steal, that completely invalidates the data based on…well every steal attempt?”
Yes!!!, errr no not really…it does go to show that the “situation” dictated a situation…even on the team that won a WS using the idea’s Championed by Beane…(or so the Money Ball movie told me).
I think that’ll we’d both agree that any stat is a great tool when used properly and can be terrible if used improperly. I think that we’d both agree that “Sabermetrics” is misunderstood by a lot of people (both by those for it and those against it)
What we really don’t know is how the Mets front office uses these tools, or how heavily hey rely on them or how much the dictate how Terry manages the game.
I will say, I saw Money Ball…I liked the movie, but I could tell even before reading comments from the people involved with the A’s in 2001-02, that the movie was 90% fiction biased of 10% actual events. So it’s safe to say that Sandy and Paul aren’t in the weight room telling guys not to steal and walk more.
“Yes!!!, errr no not really…it does go to show that the “situation” dictated a situation…even on the team that won a WS using the idea’s Championed by Beane…(or so the Money Ball movie told me).”
No, it goes to show there was one successful steal in an important spot.
“I think that’ll we’d both agree that any stat is a great tool when used properly and can be terrible if used improperly. I think that we’d both agree that “Sabermetrics” is misunderstood by a lot of people (both by those for it and those against it)”
Fair enough. I think the latter can also be said about Moneyball.
USMF, the situation wouldn’t have called for a SB if it was anyone but Roberts on the bases. With all the swings and misses Rivera gets, only an exceptional base-stealer would have been given the green light. Roberts has a career 81% success rate, and in 2004, he was out of his mind. He stole 38 bases that season and got caught THREE times. If anyone does anything with a 93% success rate, they should be doing it all the time.
That doesn’t change the fact that a caught stealing is drastically more harmful to your chances of scoring than a successful attempt is. That one play just means the Sox got the right guy on base at the right time.
Please pass the crack pipe to me!
Well, if only…2012 tops the miracle that was 1969! If only, if only.
Unfortunately we don’t have Seaver, Koosman, Gentry and Ryan. When you consider how much better they were than the rest of the NL rotations, you realize it wasn’t really a miracle at all winning the NL. Beating the powerful O’s – now that was the miracle.
Amen, Russ. Knowing the context it was written in helps. Pass that pipe though…i would actually smoke and inhale if I thought this team could even approach the 94 win total let alone the 69 Mets..
Ted Berg if you been following this series said from the get go that this was about looking at the team and trying to make the “most optimistic predictions” while trying to remain “vaguely reasonable”. In other words he is just having some fun with this in what has been an overall depressing time for many Mets fan.
Most optimistic prediction is 75 wins.. if sandy gave up on this team with beltran, reyes having all star seasons imagine what he will do with santana and bay if somehow they regain the magic.. he’s gonna wave the white flag again and “rebuild” for the future.. ie save more $ for the wilpons.. you think anyone in that F/O is concern with wins and losses? doubt that VERY MUCH..
You should go look up the word “optimism” and rethink your post.
Understood. That is your optimistic prediction and Ted gave his. Ted though admittedly was stretching his to where he did by being as he said vaguely reasonable. Some may have lost sight of that.
On another topic Alex. Leones look like they going to take the series after coming back to win last night’s game 3-1. Evertime they play the Presidente beer commercial I crack up watching the Mexican win with a Capicu.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NDUFgH8bcBs
Mn, yeah, i am watching the games… too bad it was not the Licey.. and my friend, the presidentebeer from there is the one you should drink… my goodness, i am planning on going now in march.. idk, i am thinking, is kinda expensive nowadays so.
I never got around to trying it but my wife has and she agrees with you on how good it is.
MNJ, THE CORE salutes our wife!!!!!!!
MNJ we all get what he was trying to do…
But what is the point of it at all?
Either Sandy is doing the right things and a good job or he is not (his fault or not) and we should just accept that he is NOT making this team better until such time he actually DOES improve it?
Why all the subterfuge, Optimism and False hope with all this saying White is Black and if it isn’t it is all Wilpon’s fault?
The point is probably a few things
A) Not everything about the Mets has to turn into an Anchorman-esque street fight, so Berg likes to have a little fun once in a while
B) The Arizona Diamondbacks were pegged by Vegas to win somewhere around 72 games last year. (That was their over/under) The Indians at 71, Pirates at 65. This is a funny game where things don’t always work out like they should on paper.
Do I think if he’s serious that he’s right? I have no idea. It’s his “utopian” prediction so why wouldn’t it be? I don’t think anybody here KNOWS what their record will be because there’s still an entire spring training and 162 games per team to go.
He is just having some fun with the idea of most optimistic approach.
Ted’s concept (if I understand it correctly, as opposed to him just stirring up trouble) is valid. SImply, that the team (as has been true for the last few years) on paper has more talent than has really shown on the field.
I can’t see 94, but mid-upper 80s? Sure, and that is without crazy predictions (dylan Gee winning the Cy young…).
team has a lot of Ifs, but sometimes, Ifs come through. And If wright rebounds (helath/dimensions), duda keeps developing, Ike picks up where he left off, Santana is useful, pelf pitches like 1st half 2010, and neise clicks to his talent (etc.), then certainly there is enough on paper to be above .500.
This is a ridiculous post and I think it wreaks of Berg trying to get some extra traffic on a slow news day. There is no way he really believes the Mets could win 94 games even in a best case scenario. A real best case scenario for Mets is .500 and if they do that I would be thrilled.
Yes, the Mets will win 94 games and beat the Pirates in the NLCS before beating the Royals in the World Series in seven games. Both Gee and Pelfrey will toss no hitters this season, and Ruben Tejada will win the MVP. It’s gonna be a great 2012!
Ooops and then the world will end on December 31st.
Prince Fielder has signed with the Tigers.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/01/tigers-to-sign-prince-fielder.html
9 years for any BB player just seems crazy,but what the heck.
And seems like a lot of money, but when you figure it by the pound, looks like a bargain.
Yeah, 9 years is a lot, but now Tigers should just destroy the AL central, and are going to be really tough to beat in the playoffs.
And good that he did not got to the Nats I guess.
Dang. Didn’t see that coming…
57 wins.
If he’s healthy and gets run support, probably a good 15 times, at least.
Joe d….can’t figure why you think the team is considerably worse. 2 corner infielders that missed 2.5 and3.5 months of the season are back, centerfield defense is probably better, middle infield probably will not be worse defensively, catching remains about the same, starting pitching is the same with a slight chance to improve, bullpen is likely better. So I guess your hanging your hat on a shortstop lost that had a career year at the plate while only playing 75% of the games to say the team is considerably worse……still can’ t figure.
career 1st half actually.
Everyone is bashing the Mets over and over and saying 75 wins looks like a blessing from god himself, during the off season (pitchers and catchers haven’t even reported people) . Did all of you really forgot the diamondbacks made it to the playoffs, rays made it to the playoffs and the cardinals made it to the playoffs to eventually win the gold. Is everyone literally this naive and ignorant to not even recognize that the Mets were the best offensive team in the NL East and the 6th best offensive team in the NL. We did all that without Ike, a healthy Wright and a full season of Duda. Also might I add that Pujols and Fielder is gone from the NL so I just can’t understand why people are throwing the Mets under the bus and whats worse is that its all these so called “die hard Mets fans”. Seriously people wake up and understand that the Mets aren’t the only team with flaws. Braves don’t have a bat to save their lives, Phillies are starting without their best slugger since Schmidt himself, Marlins are booked for a Jerry Springer show before all star break and the Nationals are just overrated by a long shot. I just find it amazing how fast people turn on a team in which they rooted their whole life or actually should i say since 2006? I have faith in the Mets that they will be better than expected and finish not to far from a wild card or hell maybe even win the wild card. If the New York Giants could make it to the dance with no off season acquisitions, then why not the Mets? Giants went from a punchline in the off season to a knock out in the super bowl. The Mets will be amazin this season and you can take that to the bank! LETS GO METS!!!
‘…Mets were the best offensive team in the NL East and the 6th best offensive team in the NL. We did all that without Ike, a healthy Wright and a full season of Duda.’
We also had this offense with almost 4 months of Beltran and a full year of Reyes. Minus those two out, add in say a full season of Ike/Wright/Duda and if we’re lucky it evens out.
Problem is going to come down to SP, IMO.
Beltran helped but Davis for a full season would have done better than Beltran for sure by the end of the season, just look at Davis’s hot april before his clash of titans. Also did you literally just mention Reyes and the full year together? 126 games isn’t a full season. Reyes was average offensively in 2011 when it came to clutch. His rbi’s just proves my point but he did give us runs but the Mets right now in my opinion will be a tad better offensively in 2012 (if healthy). I mention healthy because the splinters (jose reyes and carlos beltran) have at last been taken out the lions paws. Sure reyes and beltran are amazing but lets face it, injuries always gets the best of any player just ask #17.
I will agree with you on the pitching though. Santana, Dickey, Niese, Pelfrey and Gee doesnt look too solid but let me tell you a little secret. Starting Pitchers start the game, bullpen ends it.
Wow, and I thought I was the eternal optimist. 94 wins with this squad is such a stretch and that means everything “EVERYTHING” would have to go right. Even a solid season from this team makes me rank them at an 82 win season at best. Way too many ifs.
So, the gamut runs from 47 – 94 wins? Wow. i think the Mets come in at a disappointing 70 win level, within a 64 – 74 range. There’s some good talent still on the team, but little depth and the rotation has 3 iffy Q-Marks as full members: Pelfrey, Gee, and Santana. RA and Niese wii both have very good / solid seasons.
i do think the lineup will produce markedly more power than most pundits–and fans–expect. IF healthy, i speculate and am totally guessing that Wright / Davis / Bay / Duda, will each smack between 25 – 35 HRs each. Worst case, of course, they each could hit none.
Ah, such a game….
I predict the Mets will win somewhere between 0 and 162 games……….
Playing it safe I see.
Indeed. I’m not much for speculation. I certainly speculate, but for my ego’s sake, I call it “hypothesizing,” so as to give the air of crediting myself not with guesses, but “educated” guesses.
Seriously, though. I said this time last year the Mets would win 78 games, and they won 77. I could brag, but I got lucky. I expected things to happen that didn’t and I didn’t expect things to happen that did, and the same goes for every single person who was lucky enough to be pretty accurate with any prediction.
Listening to a lot of Sportstalk radio I enjoy the callers that come on with the host and tell him/her if they remember when they called x amount of weeks or months ago predicting the reason that they are calling for now happening.
Which is often met with a “Ugh… yea sure.”
Those are some of my favorites.
Off Topic: Having followed the free agent signings this off-season probably more than in years past every once in a while something will catch my attention.
In this case no team has signed more free agent players to major league contracts this off-season than the Diamonbacks with 9. Why it stands out though is that 6 of them were players that were DBacks in 2011 and they resigned.
Free agent players resigned:
Overbay, Lyle
Saunders, Joe
Blanco, Henry
McDonald, John
Bloomquist, Willie
Hill, Aaron
New free agent additions:
Albaladejo, Jonathan
Saito, Takashi
Kubel, Jason
My guess is trying to catch lightning in a bottle again, which actually goes against the whole definition of lightning in a bottle. They were something like +22 in actual wins vs. predicted wins last season, and they’re trying again. No issue with that, except for the fact that it was their overachieving pitching that really gave them a boost, and they haven’t done anything this off season to plan for a regression to the mean for guys like Kennedy, Saunders, David Hernandez and Micah Owings, who all posted ERAs significantly better than their career total.
You know, MNJ, that’s actually a great catch by you. It’s incredibly intriguing that a team with overachieving pitchers seemed to focus more on power than anything else, which kinda flies in the face of the fact they play in the DESERT. The runs will be there……….preventing them should be their concern.
You know, forget all that………I just remembered the Cahill trade. Having three studs at the top of the rotation is a great way to counteract that thin desert air.
They also have 2 studs on the fast track.Skaggs and Bauer and maybe the best of them all 2-3 years down the road in Archie Bradley.
ahh, the almightly “what ifs”….well let me play along…
what if Jose Reyes pulls him hammy in the 3rd week of spring training and begins his Marlins Legacy on the 60 day DL?….that would ease the pain of losing him
what if Ike has a monster break out year, contending for the MVP, hitting .312, 33 HR, 101 RBI
what if, like Joe said, Duda, continuing his progression, has a breakout year as well, hitting .285, 28, 88…
what if Pelfrey has a bounce back year and can give us 13 wins with a 3.79 ERA…
what if Niese continues to improve, leveling off around where he will be?…..
what if Wright has a bounceback year?…280, 30, 95
what if R. Tejada gives us solid defense all year while hitting .280 and 35 doubles…
hey, this is fun….and ive seen stranger things happen in baseball. and its not all that far fetched… everyone seems to think we are already written down for last place. Thats assuming everything falls into place for the other 4 teams in our division. Nothing goes wrong for anyone else…..im really starting to think that the majority of the Mets fan base WANTS the Mets to lose….all you bring is negativity. Why even be a fan?… not you Joe, just the “negative mets fan” in general
94 wins?
Two chances of that happening this season…SLIM and NONE.
The likelihood is that this team will lose 94 games instead!
How many did we win last season? And that was with terrific yet short seasons from Beltran and Reyes. Till he got hurt Jose was a legit candidate for MVP of the National League and Beltran a Comeback Award before he went to the Giants.
YOU MUST BE ON DRUGS!
[...] thought about it. I had also read that if everything had gone in favor of the Mets, they could win 94 games. And the Mets need more help than the Jets did during that last game against the [...]