4
2012
Looking Back At That Halladay Trade
An article by 
Anthony DiComo of MLB.com, posted his regular mailbag feature this week and I found this Q&A pretty interesting:
I don’t want to be “that guy,” but am I the only fan ruing the day that the Mets did not pull the trigger on trading for Roy Halladay? There’s no doubt that Halladay is one of the top pitchers in the league. There’s just as little doubt that Fernando Martinez is a bust. – Matt F., Farmingdale, N.Y.
Sure. The Mets probably regret trading Tom Seaver, too.
It’s easy to look back and say the Mets should have traded for Halladay in 2009, just as it’s easy to criticize umpteen other deals made and not made over the years. But recall that to land Halladay, the Mets would have reportedly had to give up not only Martinez, but also Jon Niese, Bobby Parnell and Ruben Tejada, forcing them to part with three of their top five prospects for a 32-year-old pitcher with significant mileage on his arm.
In hindsight, of course that deal would have gone in New York’s favor, given Halladay’s freakish production since that summer. But recall that Martinez was one of baseball’s top overall prospects at the time, coveted by nearly every team in the league. Parnell was a young reliever capable of throwing triple-digit heat. Niese was the organization’s top pitching hope.
The deal hinged on Martinez, and almost no one in baseball foresaw the outfielder’s fall from super prospect to apparent bust. But that’s the nature of the game. Sometimes, can’t-miss prospects miss.
I remember when that trade went down, there was a big concern that the Phillies had wiped out their farm system after sending four of their top prospects to the Cleveland Indians for Cliff Lee only six months earlier that season. None of those prospects ever panned out, by the way.
The centerpiece of the trade for the Blue Jays was the Phillies top prospect RHP Kyle Drabek who was ranked in the Top 25 of all prospects by Baseball America in 2009 and 2010, and No. 29 in their Pre-2011 rankings.
One of the reason’s I’ve never been huge on holding back from acquiring proven talents like Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay, is that all too many times the prospects you hung onto never amount to much. The odds are that more than two-thirds of a team’s top ten prospects never even have MLB careers longer than three seasons.
Look at Kyle Drabek now…
Drabek’s 2011 season was a complete disaster and even after he was eventually demoted back to Triple-A, he just continued to get worse.
In 78 2/3 innings pitched, Drabek posted a 5.83 ERA and 1.805 WHIP over 14 starts. He allowed more walks (55) than strikeouts (51), and had an opposing .857 OPS.
The Jays were forced to demoted him to AAA in June, but Drabek continued to slide and posted a 7.44 ERA and 2.026 WHIP in 15 starts, allowing 111 hits and 41 walks in 75 innings while striking out just 45 batters.
The former Phillies first round pick (#18 overall) has become an enigma for the Blue Jays and his awful showing in 2011 has cast doubts on his future and his major league career could be in jeopardy.
Meanwhile, in two seasons Roy Halladay has won 40 games for the Phillies with a 2.39 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 65 starts. In 483 innings pitched, Doc has struck out 439 batters while issuing only 65 walks. How sick is that?
I won’t even mention the perfect game and the Cy Young Award… Ooops, I just did….
About the Author: Joe DeCaro
I'm a lifelong Mets fan who loves writing and talking about the Amazins' 24/7. From the Miracle in 1969 to the magic of 1986, and even the near misses in '73 and '00, I've experienced it all - the highs and the lows. I started Mets Merized Online in 2005 to feed my addiction. Follow me on Twitter @metsmerized.
57 Comments + Add Comment
NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 25 | 18 | .581 | - |
| Nationals | 23 | 21 | .523 | 2.5 |
| Phillies | 21 | 23 | .477 | 4.5 |
| Mets | 17 | 24 | .415 | 7.0 |
| Marlins | 12 | 32 | .273 | 13.5 |
Last updated: 05/19/2013
Recent Comments
- Anderson: on Mets Sign RHP David Aardsma To Minors Deal: Why not? Guys is still pretty young...
- sarge69: on Sacking Terry Collins Now Would Be Unfair: Difference between Girardi's situation and TC is...
- Timothy: on Sacking Terry Collins Now Would Be Unfair: Single A players and usually Double A...
- sarge69: on Keep Daniel Murphy In The Leadoff Spot: My only concern is his streaks of...
- MichaelG: on Sacking Terry Collins Now Would Be Unfair: The problems are the Mets do not...
MMO Mets Chat
Need Tickets To The Mets Game?
Check Out These Great MLB Links!
Photographs From Gordon Donovan
5364 Fans Follow Us On Twitter!
1269 Fans Like Us On Facebook!
2341 Fans Read Our Feed!
1702 Fans Subscribe via Daily Email!
No mention of Travis d’Arnaud anywhere? I’m not saying he’s proven anything but Drabek was not the only guy in the deal. They also got a 20 year old Catcher who lit up AA last year.
I’m also not ready to write off Drabek. He’s got 2 years before I think he’s a bust. I’d be more concerned with what happened… he was not the 2011 pitcher we saw, so why did he all of a sudden lose velocity and walk batters at equal rates to his Ks?
For all we know, Drabek could be back in 2012.
What? You’re saying you think the Jays did good?
MetsJets & Friends
Did I say that? No.
What I said was they received 2 young players, and it’s a little difficult to judge Drabek and D’Arnaud’s career right now. What if 2 years from now Drabek wins 16 games for Toronto and D’Arnaud is either a starter or nets them a “now” pitcher?
As of right now the only end result to this deal has been 0 World Championships for Philadelphia. That’s the only thing you can judge so far. The rest, you have to give more time to evaluate
Oh and by the way for the funny guy above with the comment regarding Toronto’s failures since dealing Halladay. The last 2 seasons they’ve been better than his final season in Toronto. Which also means they’ve been better than the Mets… so lets hold off on laughing at other teams who are better than us while spending half as much $.
Of course they are saying the Jays did good metsjets13. Its clear why…. They think the Phillies lost because they kept on winning the division, and the Blue Jays because they kept on losing their division. You see, in the new world of lord sandy and his disciples, winning is no longer the issue. This is now T-Ball, where winning isn’t important/. But when do they let us in for free and pass the jar around!
They think the Phillies lost because they kept on winning the division, and the Blue Jays because they kept on losing their division. ”
LMAO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! F’ing idiots right omar…
They also got a 20 year old Catcher who lit up AA last year.
I wouldn’t say he lit up the league. He batted .311.
The 2011 batting leader in the Eastern League was our own Juan Lagares who led the EL with a record setting .370 mark and .335 overall across two levels last season. Josh Satin also finished 8th in the league in batting with a .325 average.
Before last season, d”Arnaud batted .259 and .255 in 2010 and 2009. He’s far from a sure thing at this point and still has a long way to go.
But as I explained to Donal, my post is not about who won, it’s about the volatility of hanging your hopes on a #1 organizational prospect like Drabek who was the centerpiece to that deal for the Jays.
Lagares on the other hand:
By the way, d”Arnaud is not 20, he will be 23 next month.
Joe D:
How old was D’Arnaud when Toronto got him? 20.
And c’mon “I wouldn’t say he lit up the league. He batted .311. The 2011 batting leader in the Eastern League was our own Juan Lagares who led the EL with a record setting .370 mark.”
Tell me PLEASE that you’re better than this lack of research?
Juan Lagares played in 38 games in AA this year. 38 Joe. 170 Plate Appearances. You’re gonna use his batting average as the benchmark?
D’Arnaud: 114 G, 466PA .311 Avg, .371 Obp, .542 Slg, 21HR, 78 RBI .914 OPS
That’s 4th in BA, 11th in OBP, #1 in SLG, #2 in OPS, #4 in HR, 6th in RBI.
I’d say my comment is fair based on his performance in AA.
I know is second guessing… but my god minaya.. ugh…
Completely agree. When 3 of your top 5 prospects aren’t top tiered anyway, what would losing them to gain Halladay matter? Plus, he went to Philly. Double rat farts.
Noty only that, look at his 2009, 2010 and 2011 seasons… i mean… goodness gratious, who knows how different things could’ve been..
prove that Halladay wanted to sign here or that Omar had any shot at getting him with the prospects we had at the time…..don’t worry I’ll wait.
http://metsreport.com/mets-turn-down-roy-halladay-trade/
You can’t get on Minaya since Halladay made it clear that he wanted to go to Philly because they not only gave him a better chance to win but they also have their spring training facility where he lives. He wanted to go there.
didn’t you know that the Mets can get anyone they want? EVERYONE wants to play for the Mets. If someone doesn’t come here it’s because WE didn’t want THEM. come on man that’s common knowledge. We should have gotten Halladay for Holt straight up. man what was Omar thinking.
wtf are you talking about?
I think Chris was being facetious Cactus.
I always thought that Halladay trade was more a rumor than anything else. I seem to remember Omar joining the SNY booth during a game one night to put that rumor to rest. It didn’t get a lot of mileage though b/c if I’m not mistaken, the Bernazard debacle broke just a day or two after.
They are all rumors after the fact. The truth is that nobody knows the truth and Minaya denying it is no different than Alderson saying that re-signing Reyes would be his top priority of the offseason. I learned the hard way that you cant believe anything a GM says publicly. Even when they are responding to you personally on a conference call or press conference. That said, my own point was more about how a team’s #1 prospect is no sure thing so if the opportunity to get a quality player comes up, by all means consider it. Drabek has had a huge fall from grace no different than our previous #1 prospects; Mike Pelfrey, F-Mart and Wilmer Flores.
You forgot about d’Arnaud.
But, meh. I don’t see a point to dwelling on this one. There is confiormation that this was anymore than pie in the sky rumors and at the time, Halladay wasn’t a perfect fit here.
How is Halladay not a perfect fit any where he goes?
Not that he wouldn’t have been great..just..why? Was this team going anywhere at the time? Was there any reason to think the Mets would have been able to take advantage of whatever great performances he gave us?
Pretty much like how the Mets wasted Santana.
How does a starting 2 of Santana and Halladay not sound wonderful? I’m confused here.
If I gave you a Yugo with a F1 engine and a NO2 tank, would you get excited?
With the right suspension and flames on the side? yes.
OK, but without an extra $15k (at least) for an exhaust system, it will just explode on you. Never mind the body make over you’ll also need. And better handling.
We have officially entered the “over-analogy zone”.
Sorry, too much Top Gear.
so wait, at the beginning of the 2009, had the mets have halladay, you don’t think the mets would’ve been WS favorites or maybe won it all with halladay at the helm???? forget injuries, form a roster and tell me, instead of perez, had we have halladay what you think you would’ve said?? of course, now you know what happened and the wilpons etc, but with halladay our team even now, would’ve been great!!!!!
Nope. Halladay pitches once every 5 days. He can’t cover all the positions or bat in every spot. The Mets have had way more problems than 1 starter. He would have been an improvement, but not enough.
He simply would have been wasted like Santana. Like putting a supercharger in a Datsun.
Pure genius donal,, if you have more than one need, you freeze because its better to have many needs than to solve any need. Is that why lord sandy can’t do anything? The Mets have holes so why bother improving. Man, maybe the lord is even worse than fred/jeff/saul/bud/donal….
again, this team before the 2009 season happened:
Reyes
Castillo
Beltran
Delgado
Wright
Sheffield
Chuch/Francour
Santos/Castro
Bench of murphy, Pagan, cora, hernandez, evans, sullivan
Santana
Halladay
Maine
Pelfrey
Niese
Nieves
Figueroa, livan, redding
Krod, Putz, Stokes, Takahashi, feliciano, dessents etc…
Woouldn’t that team be WS favorites!?!!?!?!!?!?!?!
Nope
Hajahajahajaha, i knew you were stupid, but now i know you’re way more than that…
Alex: Have the Phillies been WS Favorites since getting Halladay?
What did that win them?
And Donal is right by the way. You’re forgetting about the Yankees in 2009 and their off-season. The Yankees were +300 to win the WS, Boston was +600 then Cubs +750 then Mets +900.
Halladay alone wouldn’t have put the Mets odds on favorites above the Yankees prior to 2009
The year Halladay was actually dealt in 2010, the Phillies were not even odds on favorite to win WS. The Yanks and Red Sox again came in at 1/2. The Mets were +2400
So while you call Donal dumb, he’s right. If the Mets added Halladay to their Opening Day 2009 team he wouldn’t have made them odds on favorite above the Yankees and in 2010 not even the Phillies with a better team than the 09 Mets were odds on favorites.
you know, let’s say the mets would’ve had everyone healthy and made the WS, you DON’T THINK THEY WOULD’VE BEEN FAVORITES TO BESAT THE YANKEES!!?!?!?!? SERIOUSLY JESSE, I know you’re even worst than donal and you’re still young, but come on man… have some sense please ok… stop hating on the mets and even if is hypothetacally give them some props.. you’re ready to crown the braves champions with a weak ass roster and a few good prospect, but if is the mets you always have a bone to pick.. is not our fault you’re hero david wright became nothing but an afterthought…
And while we’re at it lets say a magical fairy placs a dollar under your pillow after you lose a tooth.
Let me put it to you like this. When you build a team and the only way you can win is if “everybody stays healthy.” You have done something wrong.
You’re asking me to predict an imaginary WS between 2 teams, 1 of which never existed. How did the Mets get to the WS? Did they win the division? Wildcard? How’d they do in their playoff series? How’d the Yankees do? How in the world do you expect anybody to predict what a Mets/Yanks with Halladay on Mets in 2009 would have looked like? It’s impossible.
However you said they’d be WS favorites before 2009 happened with Halladay… and I’m telling you that on paper the 2009 were Opening Day favorites by such a large margin that Halladay to the Mets would not have overtaken the Yanks as pre-season favorites in 2009 (even though Halladay was dealt prior to 2010)
” let’s say the mets would’ve had everyone healthy and made the WS”
No, let us deal with what actually happened and the most likely outcomes of trading for Halladay.
For 2010: Delgado was gone (couldn’t hit anymore anyway) Beltran was still rehabbing his knee, Reyes’ health was a concern, Luis Castillo was still at 2B, we had no everyday RF or LF (this was before Bay signed) and a part time player slated to be our CF
ok then, so you wanna predict things you’re way and won’t allowed me to predict things my way? yeah, uhh, no… it is what it is then, in my mind we would’ve won!
We want to use what we know. You are trying to support one hypothetical with 10 more. “This one thing that didn’t happen would have worked if everything else happened differently”.
Alex: Have the Phillies been WS Favorites since getting Halladay?
You are a simpleton. What an obtuse way of looking at that trade.
by the way, the Halladay traded happened in December of 2009.
And even if it had happened sooner, the Mets finished 25th in runs scored. They repeated that in 2010.
Keep in mind, they 7th in the league in ERA in 2010 yet, still finished under .500.
But I’m stupid
Wow! You are amazin donal…. Let’s be accurate. There isn’t a team in the big leagues that Halladay wouldn’t be a perfect fit for. Og now i get it. The Mets aren’t in the big leagues. Now its clear why lord sandy doesn’t care about winning. The minors aren’t about winning.
I didn’t forget d’Arnaud, my post is about Drabek and how #1 ranked prospects are not a sure thing. Roy Halladay was the only sure thing in that deal. Agree?
Joe D, don’t stress it, is donal and jesseP trying to be you know what…
Sure thing? No such species. See: Bay, Jason.
Safest bet? Probably. Hindsight is 20/20 and all.
I read that in an average year 40% of starting pitchers miss more than 5 starts every year. That is a solid month. Halladay was 32 at the time of the trade. It is not unreasonable to fear he’d miss significant time.
But, Philly was in win now mode, Halladay wanted to go there and the Blue Jays got to bulk up their farm.
If you needed hindsight to determine Halladay was the best player in that deal, we might as well end the discussion here because we are on two different universes.
It’s not that. A team in win now mode should go after a perennial Cy Young candidate.
But don’t think 30+ year old pitchers are sure bets. And don’t tell us now that it was obvious Toronto got a raw deal.
At the time, it looked like a deal that worked out for everyone involved.
I didn’t say they got a raw deal (but you just did).
Once again, all I’m saying is that #1 ranked prospects are no sure things.
Simple as that.
Kyle Drabek was my example in this post because I decided to look him up after reading Anthony DiComo’s post.
But there are hundreds more #1 busts like him and hundreds more to come.
Can I ask a silly question?
“Once again, all I’m saying is that #1 ranked prospects are no sure things.”
“But there are hundreds more #1 busts like him and hundreds more to come.”
I do not disagree with you but, when was Kyle Drabek the Phillies #1 Prospect?
In January 2009 he was 5th behind Dom Brown, Carrasco, Marson and Jason Donald. D’Arnaud was 7th
In November of 2009 Drabek was #2 behind Dom Brown. D’Arnaud was 4th.
Pretty sure, Drabek didn’t crack the Top 100 until 2010.
And again, I don’t think it is fair to call Drabek a bust yet.
And I’m saying there are no sure things. I can produce a long list of veteran free agent/trade busts as well.
The 2 teams were in different places. The Phillies were World series contenders and the Blue Jays were restructuring and trying to bulk up their farm.
The Phillies got themselves a perennial Cy Young candidate that made them a lot better.
The Blue Jays got more talent for their farm.
Yes, so far, the deal looks to be paying off better for the Phillies. But it could have easily been the opposite. The fact is, both teams made the right move and both teams took a risk.
I know it looks bad now, but who would have known? For a team that had no depth during Omar’s tenure, to give up those players for one pitcher who I believe has had arm issues in the past? That move would have taken a lot of guts and still wouldn’t have changed the fact that Beltran, Delgado, Reyes and Wright all time to injuries and we didn’t have a bullpen.
I’m a firm believer that you develop pitching and leave the Free Agent signings to hitters eligible for Free Agency for the 1st time.
Most starting pitchers seem to lose it or get injured in their early 30′s…most stud pitchers usually have a ton of millage on them when they become free agents, which makes it riskier. Plus you add in the monster deals they get, very rarely to they stay healthy and/or effective long enough to earn the deal they got.
Look at CC, Halladay and Lee…these are the best guys I can think of right now…what’s the odds that all three of them reach the end of their deals before getting seriously hurt?
I say, develop your own pitchers, then develop more pitchers…if you need a hitter, sign one when they are 28 and a free agent. Let the pitchers walk after they turn 28 and you used them up…let the hitters walk once they hit 35.
We can ask ourselves “how much better we would have been” all day, but the fact is the front office thought Martinez was going to be a star and Halladay was already 32. And remember, Halladay was an amazing pitcher but no one thought he would stay this good into his mid-30s. I thought he would be great, but he is down right untouchable.
The Mets didn’t reject a trade for Halladay – That was proven false.
“It was just last week when SI.com reported that the New York Mets rejected a deal that would have sent four of their top prospects for Halladay. The radio shows buzzed. TV commentators opined. The Mets’ prospects wondered if they needed to get their visas and pack their bags.
There was just one problem.
There wasn’t a shred of truth to the report.
“It was absolutely wrong,” Ricciardi says. “We didn’t exchange names with the Mets. I felt so bad for [Mets GM] Omar [Minaya] because there was no truth to it. None. Now, he’s the one who has to answer why they didn’t get Halladay.”
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/2009-07-27-base-trades_N.htm
My memory supports this as well. In fact I think more than one on the other side of the camp reported those rumors as false too.
Now as Joe D said, you can’t ever trust what you’re hearing from a GM on any given subject at any given time – none of them should be vocalizing their game plan unless it’s a benefit to do so – but having said that, there was absolutely no hedging that I remember on this one rumor – both camps were denying it. I do remember just about every Met fan I read saying: ‘Omar, get ‘er done!’.
The deal hinged on Martinez, and almost no one in baseball foresaw the outfielder’s fall from super prospect to apparent bust. But that’s the nature of the game. Sometimes, can’t-miss prospects miss.
Ummm sometimes? Wake up DiComo it’s most of the time! And even more so when the Mets are concerned!
i agree, that getting Halladay would’ve been a great steal. That’s 1 deal for 1 stud pitcher. The roster of busts or disappointing performances for stud pitchers gotten via either trade or F/A in the past 10 years is legend and includes: Lackey, Dice Matzuaka (sp), Lowe, Zito, Vasquez, Burnett; Glavine; OLLIE, KROD; even our beloved Santana has underperformed due to injuries, but underperformance, nonetheless.
i agree that developing young talent may even be riskier, but it is cheaper, and, if successful, we’ve got these kids for the prime years of their careers.
LOOK at OUR record of acquiring F/As…NOT a happy collection in recent years, for the most part.
We’re in rebuilding mode. i think we should get with the program and critique and evaluate as we go, but not pine for a strategy that we will not be engaging in for the next 3 – 4 years. Over that timeframe, we’ll be trading our stars and/or prospects for missing pieces, NOT studs. The idea is to develop and trade for guys that become OUR studs.