14
2012
If We Are Rebuilding, Why Is R.A. Dickey Still Here In A Sellers Market?
An article by 72MetsFan
Michael Baron of MetsBlog wrote the following this morning regarding the Mets projected starting rotation:
According to FanGraphs, Bill James predicts Gee will go 8-10 with a 4.33 ERA in 160 innings, Niese will go 9-10 with a 4.28 ERA in 160 innings, Dickey will go 12-11 with a 3.89 ERA, Pelfrey will go 9-11 with a 4.36 ERA in 188 innings, and Santana will go 14-7 with a 3.10 ERA in 189 innings.
That’s a pretty optimistic view of things by Bill James who has the Mets starting five pegged for 52 wins. The thing that stands out the most here is Johan Santana winning 14 games with a 3.10 ERA in 189 innings pitched. Damn I hope he’s right, but to expect Johan to pitch that many innings and to return to form seems like a big stretch to me. Santana’s career ERA is 3.10 so he’s basically expecting him to perform at his previous level. Like I said, I hope he’s right, but I’m betting he’s way off.
Let me switch gears on you and ask you all a question. With the incredible amount of talent being swapped this offseason for starting pitching, why haven’t the Mets tried to trade R.A. Dickey?
The front office talks a lot about building a contending Mets team for 2014 and beyond. So why is Dickey still here when the lack of starting pitching in this market has led to an insane amount of teams overpaying for a legit top of the rotation starter like R.A. Dickey.
I don’t get it.
We have so many Mets fans who said we finished in fourth place with Reyes and we can finish in fourth place without him. Can’t that also be said of Dickey who is 37 and could go kaput at anytime?
What ever happened to sell high and buy low?
I just think it’s very odd. If you’re going to rebuild then rebuild, or if you’re going to contend then contend.
I have no idea what we are doing and I sometimes wonder if the front office has any idea either.
All of this Mets financial stuff must be getting to them too. It feels like they are just going through the motions this offseason with no real direction or plan.
Who knows if we’ll ever see such a great seller’s market for starting pitching like this again.
About the Author: Drew Staley
On June 1, 2012 Johan Santana officially became my favorite current Met! I'm a Queens native who grew up in the shadows of Big Shea. I was a huge Ron Darling, Dave Magadan and John Olerud fan. Honored to be a part of such a great site for Mets fans. Ya Gotta Believe!
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Knuckleballers can pitch well into their mid 40′s that’s why R.A. Dickey is here. He will be part of those 2014 and 2015 teams and might even be the best starter until the kids come into their own. Just because Harvey and Wheeler will be up by then doesnt mean they will hit the ground running as top line pitchers. They will have growing pains for a few years like Chris Carpenter and Cliff Lee. We’ll need Dickey to bolster the rotation.
Bill James is a smart guy but when he uses three significant digits to predict a future ERA, he’s blowing smoke. It looks good but is just a wild ass guess.
Dickey is a bargain compared to what he does and how much he gets paid to do it. It makes more sense to keep him than to trade him in my opinion, but in reality there is no wrong answer. You could look at it both ways and there’s a good argument for both.
I don’t think Dickey is a legit top of the rotation pitcher.He’s a very good number 3.I doubt anybody will blow us away for a 37 year old knuckleballer and we need to be somewhat competitive.
I have thought this too, I assume he’ll be a candidate to be dealt at the deadline.
The Mets should keep him though, knuckleballers are always a useful commodity and age is but a number with them. he should be kept around; whether Alderson decides this is a different story.
no way Pelf has a better ERA than Dickey. Nor will Johan pitch 189 innings.
but to answer the question, he is still here because someone has to pitch int he rotation that qualifies as a ML level starter.
4.36 > 3.89
It must be 4:20 for Bill James
That’s not true any and you know it. If the mets don’t need a major league catcher they don’t need a major league pitcher.
That’s actually pretty funny.
I like Dickey on our team and hope he stays there. All those predictions are just that and I pay no attention to someone who is just guessing. Time will tell if keeping R.A. was the best move. I hope so!
I wonder how long Dickey will pitch. Yes, he throws a knuckleball and people have thrown that pitch well into their 40s. But he also throws a relatively fast knuckleball in the low 80 mph and he frequently (for a knuckleballer) relies on a fastball in the mid to high 80s. I don’t know of any other knuckleballer who throws that fast and if he will be able to sustain that for as long as others.
I agree. Keep Dickey, who will be fine in a few years, with Harvey (up later this year), Familia (ditto), and Wheeler (up in 2013 sometime). Pelfrey is just a placeholder for this year, who will be traded, if he does OK, mid-season. Niese is a bit overrated (ERA+ of 84 last year) and should be traded this year. They’ve also got Gorski, who might be a good #5.
Who says we’re “re-building”? You? And the legion of pessimists who refuse to acknowledge the main reason for the mediocre season was (again)–devastating injuries?
This is not a bad team. If we weren’t in such a tough division, I would predict great things. The pitching doesn’t match up, yet, but if Johan is ok, we may have enough to make the playoffs–because the hitting will be the best it’s been in quite a while (barring more injuries, of course).
Management has never said we’re re-building, and it’s clear we’re not. They want to win; I want to win; many Mets fans want to win.
You–and plenty others–just want to wallow in self-pity.
agree totally about the self-pity party angle. And call it retooling if you want, since that is more like what they are doing (trying to rebuild the foundation).
But like I said on earlier thread, the team is not devoid of talent.
and excellent point about being in a tough division. If they were in one of the cupcake central divisions, they would be much more of a contender
You too with the self-pity party? Wow, we have some real sharp guys here today. Apparently they have me all figured out.
was not referring to you, just a general comment. You have to admit there is plenty of it going around.
And the rebuilding angle? came right out of the post title.
Wow any… now e are retooling. did the lord sandy twet you the new buzzword????
The only word that describes what the lousy over the hill gm is doing is destroying. He is destroying a once proud fan base to save the ownership of a corrupt family and their best friend the commish. Call it retooling, call it rebuilding. But don’t ever tell the truth about the new Mets. Lord sandy would be mad at you.
are you like this in real life, or is it just a character you play on the internet?
So you think the Mets are playing for wild card? Really? You’re supposed to sip the Koolaid not bathe in it. I heard of optimism but try being a little realistic once in a while.
Yes, the Mets could have been playing for the wild card. They were last season before the Wilpons (with or without his support) forced Alderson to dump our top hitter and closer.
Not helping the team get stronger by the all-star break was bad enough but. breaking it apart was totally inexcusable. The financial problem – and by that I do not mean the entire Wilpon fiasco, just the part pertaining to the Mets – was brought upon the owners by their own selves by building a smaller ballpark and outpricing the fan base – not by any small market, lack of fan support or overpaid roster or the Madoff scandal. Don’t forget, before Citi Field and during the time of that second highest payroll in the majors, the Mets were a money making operation easily able to sustain itself. In 2009 the Mets were still rated one of the financially top lucrative franchises in baseball.
Or is it that they are just skimming off the team to make up for lost revenue and debt from their other “diversified” ventures?
Whatever the reasons, the rebuilding line is pure crap and an attempt to disguise what is nothing more than salary dumping. Who needed to completely re-build with a young first baseman, young second baseman, a shortstop (we now don’t have) and third baseman now in their prime, a young right fielder and a young and potentially promising pitching staff? No, more would be needed to get us to the top but still, many of the tools for the future are already in Flushing. We need to be buyers, not sellers but, unfortunately, should the kids start coming through again along with the veterans, look for the Dickeys, Wrights and maybe even Bays to depart the same way – unless, by chance, the Wilpons announce they are putting the team up for sale. By that measure, we can get back to the business of baseball and see what Sandy really can or cannot do.
Any of us would love to own the Mets but if we can’t, we can’t. The Wilpons still have to face the fact that they cannot win this one financially, no matter how much they believe they can weather the storm. There are no fans coming with a lifeboat.
No, haven’t you been paying attention? This has nothing to do with the wilpons. The only reason the mets aren’t getting into the playoffs is because Sandy believes the goal is to lose games. he is anti-winning. And they keep begging him to spend more money, and he refuses to do it.
Why would you write something so idiotic? Are you craving reprimands?
I’m sensing just a wee bit of sarcasm.
Put the sarcasm filter back on Knog. I think you left it in the float when you stashed it in the garage last year.
HAHAHA! That’s what I get when I come over here! What a dumbass I am! Thx for setting me straight sitkc.
or more realistically there are some of us – like me – who think better and smarter decisions/moves could have been made to keep us in the playoff hunt last year and with a little luck we could have piggy backed that into this year as well.
Sorry if you are so arrogant to dismiss anyone who believes that Sandy possibly didn’t do his best last season to keep the team he inherited in contention. Judging by his actions, and the actions of those like him – who like to dismantle decent teams that just may need a little help but instead they forego to concede and trade chips away – that maybe that’s exactly how Sandy felt when he inherited the Mets last year. He may have felt that they had no chance so why bother – of course won’t say that but his actions told a different story. Like this year – and like giving up so easily on Reyes too.
So ‘any’ you’re just a plain old clown who does nothing but follow like the rest of them. You and srt – the 2 3-lettered book-keepers are just as blind and arrogant as anyone else, just very subdued about it.
I still think it’s cute you insist it was Sandy’s decision or choice to cut all that payroll.
Xtree — It’s a tough sell to some folks.
I’m pretty sure Stevie Wonder could have seen K-Rod, Beltran and Reyes coming, but some other people……..well……
I’m so tempted to say the Mets got a bean counter rather than a general manager in Sandy Alderson but that might be unfair since it is obvious he was hired to be a bean counter first and a general manager second. Do believe he was well aware of the Wilpons financial situation working closely with Bud Selig and thus knew exactly what was expected of him. From his public persona he comes across as a cold and indifferent businessperson (which is not to say he is the same in private life) which one has to be in order to endure with what he is doing. A true baseball oriented individual would not accept the job under such conditions.
He might very well be a good general manager given the tools to work with – after all, it was under his direction that those pre-money ball championship teams in Oakland were built. But again, seeing he is capable of bringing down a team and lie to the public with a straight face gives me second thoughts about him being more like M. Donald Grant than Nelson Doubleday or Mrs. Payson. After all, he seems to fit in quite comfortably with what the Wilpons want of him. If that was not the direction the Wilpons wanted to take, they would have fired him long ago.
If that wasn’t the direction the Wilpons were going in, he never would have been hired. The Wilpons, and to a lesser extent Omar, screwed the pooch with the team’s finances and forced a very, very small budget. Sandy was picked for many reasons, including $10 or so million in his hands goes further than most.
The only disagreement we have is that the money given to Perez, Castillo, Krod, Bay, Santana, etc. played a major part in the Mets financial trouble. Can’t imagine the costs associated with just opening the ballpark each day, let alone the costs of road trips and tending a minor league system but the the payroll in itself is only small potatoes in comparison. That too much was spent on some players and that the money was wasted altogether on others (i.e, Perez, Castillo and Bay) there is no argument but there is no double that the Wilpons would welcome that as being the only source of their financial problems. Even that $70 million the Mets claim they lost this year is questionable since we know the Wilpons refuse to include SNY in any deal and television rights or team owned networks is what really generates the revenue (and there are financial problems associated with SNY as well).
Sandy might indeed spend that $10 million more wisely than Omar but having just $10 million to work with is almost like working with nothing. But if $10 million is all Sandy is willing to spend, then look for this cold winter to continue over all four seasons.
Meant to say the Wilpons “no doubt”, not “no double” would…. in the above.
I don’t think getting doubles will be a problem this season more than giving them up.
Remember, it’s not Sandy who’s willing to only spend whatever he spends, it’s the Wilpons who are only authorizing that much money. He spends what he’s given. His job is too keep the Mets relevant, that is all, and he’s going to have to do it without any superstars that cost money.
Your hapless defenses of this guy are more ridiculopus by the poast. If your lordship had integrity he would have quit. If his job were indeed to keep the Mets relevant, he gets a big fat F and should be fired. Fired or quit, he shouldn’t be the GM because he is out of touch and out of date. The guy’s only success was due to Canseco teaching the team to roid up. He can’t even check birth records well. defending.him!!!!! you must be him or being paid. nobody would defend this garbage voluntarily.
Just what exactly is a 3-lettered book-keeper anyway?
Can you spell clueless? I’d say not, since you can’t spell the simple 5 letter word ‘B-R-O-K-E’.
Your obvious anger is misdirected, as usual.
You supporters better be supporting Freddy’s team with your wallet. Your fingers on the keyboard don’t stop bankruptcy. Enjoy the boring games and the losing. with your wallets. If not, you all are bigger frauds than fred and jeff and sandy. Remeber, words won’t bail freddy boy out, only you wasting your hard earned money. Better do it or shut up.
I am so looking forward to the day you get banned again.Remember it was your idol who put us in this position.Omar nearly bankrupt a team in the biggest market in the world.Quite an infamous accomplishment.The only thing worse than Omar’s ability to run a franchise is his ability to put a comprehensible sentence together.”You know what I’m sayin”…
Did I say we’re rebuilding? Or did you ASSume I said it? My question was more of what are we doing, rebuilding or contending? And please spare me the “you want to win” speech. We all want to win and you dont belong to some exclusive club in that regard. If you want to be a butthead and make assumptions and insult people, I can do that too. Act like a man not a moron.
72 the title of this post does suggest you feel they are rebuilding even though in your own post you later go on to say you have no idea what they are doing.
Maybe this is where the confusion is stemming from.
No need to get all bent out of shape. I understand his comment was uncalled for but as a writer you should show a little more restraint. I’ve actually enjoyed your posts here but on this site youre going to need a thicker skin especially if the usual MMO attack dogs come after you.
If you wrote the title, then you said we’re rebuilding. Deny it all you like, it’s obvious to others, as well as me.
BTW very classy response. Resorting to name-calling, since you can’t defend your statements. If you’re going to blog, maybe you should try being less thin-skinned.
Suck it up, princess.
One more thing:
Since you’re too busy being insulted to understand what I wrote, I’ll translate it for you: I said you were feeling sorry for yourself as a Met fan. In no way is that equivalent to calling people names–as you did.
Take your own advice: Be a man…
Right now they’ve got no SP depth at all – zilch. If they traded RA, it would either have to be for another pitcher who can at least take the mound or we’d have to go to the scrap heap to pick one up.
Please….leave RA right where he is for right now. Give me some reason to look forward to a Met ballgame.
Bill James is notoriously………generous in his projections.
Hey look who is once again bad mouthing somebody….Why its notne other than thin skinned xtreemicaon, the guy who loves to sidh out the trash talk but can’t take it one bit.
Serious question……..what are you hoping to accomplish with all this? I mean, all you’ve succeeded in doing is proving you have no baseball accumen, no life, no ability to think for yourself and no one takes you seriously. Did you set out to become a huge joke?
Why do you talk to these people? They are just trying to get a rise out of you. If people would just stop reading their posts, or at least never respond to any of them, they would slink away. Try it. I do.
Thought they would man up. Silly me.
Great job by R.A. Dickey! Congratulations dude, you totally rock!
To think that Santana will pitch 189 innings is ridiculous………
R.A. Dickey stays because he is likely to make 30 plus starts, fits within the limited budget, and has the right attitude for a team searching for a new identity. I wasn’t worried that R.A. would get hurt climbing the mountain but instead that he would hide up there for the season.
If the starting pitcher situation got any worse…we’d be resurrecting Tracy Stallard and Fat Jack Fisher. Seriously folks…..there are two chances for us to compete for a playoff spot this season….SLIM and NONE.
HERE IS THE REALITY…… If things go well then Wright and Bay come back and hit like they have in the past. Luca Duda and a healthy Ike Davis supply some power and the rest of the staring nine play fairly good defense. If so we will score some runs, hide the few weak gloves, and hopefully get enough pitching to win 75 games. That’s being optimistic!
It is more likely to be a season where we lose 100 games because we will not get any quality starting pitching other than Dickey, a slow starter who needs warmer weather to excel.
Keeping with the plan…trading David Wright is a real possibility if Sandy can get a stud pitcher or a couple of stud pitching prospects. The same goes for Jason Bay except that the Mets would probably have to swallow salary to trade him.
As fans, why not just understand what has happened and why things are happening now and give up lamenting about the past. Oliver P…Luis C….are gone!
and here is some advice for “the ghost of Omar”……Sandy Alderson’s job was clear from day one. His job was to save a sinking ship for ownership who were broke and in trouble. It was his job to slice payroll as best as possible and to help an organization that had no direction towards the future. His hiring was an admission of guilt for Fred and Jeff or else why would they have given total control of the operation. He was given the truth about the financial mess and asked to plug the leaks. It is too bad that you think he was hired to make you feel good as a Mets fan. Did you expect him to come out and say that the team is going to suck and that you shouldn’t bother to go to a game or watch on TV? Was he ever in the game to resign Jose Reyes? No and there was no other response that he could give under the circumstances of his job working for the Wilpon’s.
GET REAL DUDE!
The contracts that were given to Perez, Castillo and others were a waste of money and the amounts spent to sign Santana, KRod, Bay and others might not have been fiscally sound but I must again emphasize that these contracts and/or signings cost the Mets much more on the field (by having Perez and Castillo take roster spots away from others who could have contributed more, or the physical status that we were warned could befall Santana down the road,etc.) than it did the team’s financial demise. It was instead the Wilpons short-sighted long-range planning that caused the team to be in the financial fiasco it now finds itself in.
The revenue was always coming in but they made the mistake of taking on so much debt and expecting even more revenue by building a smaller ballpark and charging much more for people to enter it. They never considered the backlash of the fan base. Even in a bad economy, each day there must be 30,000 fans (like we do) who have the money but won’t spend that amount for something like going to a baseball game.
The thought that corporations would also purchase luxury suites no matter how high an expense didn’t help either. Even in the bad economy, there are more than enough businesses that could afford to buy those suites if they wanted to and if the asking price wasn’t perceived as being too much and just not in the corporate interest. For example, last season we were given opening day tickets for the Champions Club (which was only half occupied BTW) and the face value was $189 (for season ticket holders, individual seats went for $215). Even without the costs the Mets add on to the face value, that comes out to $15,300 per individual or $61,200 for four. Not enough firms felt that was worth the investment (same with the Yankees – one can’t miss the empty seats between first and third).
Mind you, those are not the luxury suites which go for much more. 1,500 of those seats would generate about $23 million alone.
If one wants to blame Omar for the bad decisions that’s fine, but to blame him for putting together a team in turn caused fans to stay away is ridiculous. Win or lose, Met fans have a fun time at the ballpark – but they won’t pay through the nose for it.
RA Dickey IS NOT a “Top of The Rotation Starter”, as asserted in the Blog Post. He IS a Mid-back rotation solid innings guy who can and will compete.
The Knuckleball is a huge adjustment to both Managers and Catchers. Dickie is a very unusuall :trick Pitch” guy because he seems to have less control issues than some other Knuckleballers. Still…. trading for Dickie is a major leap for an organization….he’s less Marketable than a Fastball, Curve, Change up starter.