Jan
2
2012

2012 HOF Preview: Larkin Looks Like A Lock, Bagwell Getting Little Support

Baseball Think Factory is keeping track of the Hall of Fame voting by tallying results from writers who have made their ballots public. So far, after 81 known BBWAA ballots only one player has been named on 75 percent of the ballots; Barry Larkin.

What’s even more interesting is to see how far Mark McGwire has sunk with less than 20% support.

Here are the top ten vote getters so far, and remember this is unofficial and there are many more ballots that will be counted before the official results are announced on Monday.

92.6 – Larkin
63.0 – Jack (The Jack) Morris
61.7 – T. Raines
58.0 – Bagwell
44.4 – Trammell
43.2 – Lee Smith
39.5 – E. Martinez
22.2 – L. Walker
21.0 – McGriff
18.5 – McGwire

If Jeff Bagwell can’t get in, this might spell trouble for Mike Piazza’s candidacy next year. Neither player have ever been caught using steroids or PEDs or failed any tests, but it looks like the BBWAA members are going to punish any power hitters from that era regardless of whether there’s any evidence against them.. That’s a sad commentary if it’s true.

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About the Author: Craig Lerner

I'm a data analyst and researcher for a leading news agency who loves life and is hooked on the Mets. I love following the Amateur Draft and have a particular fondness for the Mets Minor Leagues who I follow each day. Give me a cold beer, a summer day, and a Mets game, and I'm good to go.

19 Comments + Add Comment

  • I’m sure that Piazza will be a first ballot hall of famer. I get the Bagwell thing, but Piazza set a bunch of mlb records for catchers.

  • This is rediculous. I have never been more embarrased for the Hall. Edgar Martinez has more votes than Larry Walker. What a shame.

  • Damn, is crazy, larkin deserves to be a HOF in my opinion, is getting more and more obvious how all this “power” hitters of the 90′s era are getting the you’re not getting in treatment,
    now, edgar martinez on the other hand should be a HOF, he’s one of the most CLUTCH hitters i have ever seen, the man was money when it matter, he became such a great hitter it wasn’t even funny, you kinda wonder how more great his numbers would’ve been had he not gotten hurt in 1993-1994, and even then from 1995 to 2001 he average 330 28 112 with a 446 OBP and a 576 SLG %. the man was just money, is a shame about bagwell and walker, but you kinda wonder how players that avg 20 to 25 hr’s per season all of the sudden became 40 hr hitters, but i’ll tell you, his 1994 season was just crazy!!! i went back and look at his numbers because i do remember all those player who in 1994 went bananas. here’s bagwell stats for that year:

    368 39 116 104 750 SLG% 450 OBP% in just 110 GAMES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! LOL, i mean, that season was the strike season, but how CRAZY are those numbers!!!??!? is a shame really, but all those players will not get the benefit of the doubt..

  • If nothing ever comes out about Piazza and steroids, he’s a 1st ballot HOF’er. I have 0 doubt in my mind. Bagwell’s candidacy has nothing to do with Piazza.

    I totally disagree with people who get up in arms about Edgar Martinez. It’s not his fault he played a position that a “pureist” dislikes. You can’t hold it against him. You can’t vote againt the DH when voting for the HOF. That’s not your job, your job is to vote for the player based on performance, not your ideals in the sport. His #s are HOF worthy. Say what you want about OBP but a CAREER OBP of .418 over 18 years is ridiculous.

    Jack Morris deserves it because he was the best pitcher in the 80′s. I think a HOF voter has the chance to clean up the image of the sport by recognizing just how great a guy like Morris was, and taking the focus off of the guys who took PEDs etc

    • Jessep, Bagwell and Raines should have been first ballot votes. Larkin should have been, too, but it looks like he’ll get in now.

      But I disagree with you about Martinez. I think he should be in, but not this early in his candidacy. He was a good third baseman when he was healthy, and I credit him for that, but the fact is he played no defense for the majority of his career. He doesn’t deserve consideration over those with similar offensive numbers who DID play defense, especially those who played well.

      I’m not sure about Morris. He had a 3.90 ERA and 3.90 FIP in his career with a 1.30 WHIP in a terrible offensive era. He threw only 28 shutouts in his career. He had a 1.78 career K/BB. What makes him a Hall of Famer? Is Bernie Williams a Hall of Famer? He was one of the best defensive CFs of his time, and one of the best offensive CFs of his time this side of Junior Griffey. I think you’d agree that Andruw Jones is a lock, right? After that, who’s better than Bernie?

      Fact is, I don’t think Bernie’s a HOFer. I think he should get some consideration and some votes, but not enshrinement. And for that same reason, despite the fact that Morris was one of the best when he pitched, he shouldn’t be in. He’s just not good enough. Being the best of the 80′s is more an indictment on the 80′s than a boon for Morris.

      • I’d say Jim Edmonds was a better defensive CF than Bernie Williams.

        Morris isn’t a stat guys dream. But he’s the kind of pitcher that posted the type of career + his intangibles that makes him a HOF’er in my book. Other than Doc and Roger, Morris was the top pitcher of the 80′s in my book with Hersh and Saberhagan just behind him.

        Morris lead the decade in Wins by a pitcher, and I realize at times wins are a product of the team, but his team was a playoff team only twice during that decade. He threw 175 complete games, which for that generation of pitcher has not been done since.

        The only guys who pitched in the 80s who had more were Seaver, Nolan, Niekro, Blyleven, Carlton, Kaat, and Sutton and none of them are in the same generation as Morris. They all began their careers much earlier.

        To find pitchers who began their career at a similar time than Morris you have to go down to Dennis Martinez or Roger Clemens to get the next guy on the list at 122 or 118.

        Think about that in terms of the generation and how pitchers were starting to get used during that time.

        • You didn’t really sell Morris there. Most wins? He had the third most losses, too. Most complete games, which wasn’t a very impressive total historically, anyway?

          He pitched a lot, and I have no issue with inducting him into the durability HOF. But when he pitched, he was just……good. Maybe for a portion of the 80′s, he was very good. But that’s all.

          • That’s because you’re focused primarily on stats. (My friends who “love me” please note the difference here) Jack Morris has the big #s but he is a Hall of Famer because of what he did during his generation of pitcher.

            He has more W than 30 of the 59 guys in the Hall
            More K’s than 48 of the 59 pitchers in the Hall
            Appeared in more Games than 25 pitchers in the Hall

            He was the ultimate go to pitcher, put the team on his back more than any pitcher in his generation by a large margin, and performed at a high level.

            • I think the third “stat” tells the whole story. You need to take wins and Ks with a grain of salt when you also boast so many appearances and innings.

              • Top 10 in Wins in the 80s: 8 times
                Top 10 in Ks in the 80s: 7 times
                Top 10 in CG in the 80s: 8 times
                Top 10 in Sho in the 80s: 5 times

                Other than Roger (86-89) and Doc (84-88) show me a better pitcher in the 80s? Morris was the best pitcher of the decade (80-89)

                • Like I said, that’s more an indictment on the 80′s than a boon to Morris. We’ll have to agree to disagree. There’s nothing wrong with falling just short of the HOF. If Morris really was that good, he’d have separated himself further from the Dave Steibs, Bob Welchs, and Fernando Valenzuelas of the world. Those are the next three in wins for the decade, and they all have fewer losses, lower ERAs and more shutouts. Charlie Hough is next in wins and also has a lower ERA and fewer losses, but fewer shutouts.

                  Is he a HOFer because he merely “compares favorably” to Steib, Welch, Valenzuela and Hough? I don’t think so. He’d have to be significantly better than those guys, and he just wasn’t.

  • What’s curious to me is that some voters will staunchly support Mark McGwire every year even after he admitted PED use. While others will not vote for Bagwell (and I assume Piazza next year when he’s eligible) because they simply PLAYED during the steroid era. No proof either one EVER cheated but, in some minds, they’re guilty by association. There need to be guidelines to follow in voting for the HOF to leave personal opinion out of the equation: Go by the players stats and performance only, UNLESS there is viable proof or admission of cheating.

    As for the DH, Edgar Martinez is, without a doubt, a Hall of Famer. His career stats are just ridiculous regardless of position. Ditto for Frank Thomas, but I suspect he’ll get the Bagwell treatment when he’s eligible too. But he should be there. Thomas was the Albert Pujols of his generation offensively (.300+ BA, 30+ HR, 100+ RBI, .400+ OBP) . Career Stats: .301/.419/.555 w/ 521 HR and 1704 RBI—are those not Hall of Fame stats?

    • I think people are giving Bagwell too much credit. Frank Thomas hit 521 HR and has 0 steroid allegations to his record.

      Jeff Bagwell at the same position did not hit 500 HR, and drove in 200 less runs and does not have a career BA over .300

      Piazza didn’t hit 500 but that is not a benchmark set for players at his position. He cleared the power mark for his position. He’s getting in because he’s the greatest power hitting player to play his position.

      That has nothing to do with Bagwell. Bagwell was a great player… was he an all-time great? Not sure… but he’s not Frank Thomas or Mike Piazza.

      • Sorry, I don’t consider Thomas a first baseman. He played more games as a DH than he did first base and wasn’t particularly good in the field, as opposed to Bagwell, who was a good fielder. Thomas is in the discussion with Martinez, not Bagwell.

        • During the prime of Big Hurt’s career 91-97 he DH’s in 222 games, and started at 1B in 786.

          He won MVPs in 93 and 94.

          In 1993 he started 149 games at 1B and 4 at DH
          In 1994 he started 99 games at 1B and 13 at DH

          From the age of 22-29 which was the time in his career that built his reputation he DH’d more than play 1B only once which was at age 23 in 1991.

          Frank Thomas’ career from 1990-1997 is what built the foundation for his HOF candidacy because he had 7 HOF seasons, not 1998-2008 when he had 3 HOF seasons

          • The reason he was able to play til 2008 was because he DHed so much. I don’t take issue with it. I think he should be a HOFer. But as a DH, where he played most of his career.

            • Would you agree Frank Thomas’ best seasons were as a 1B not a DH?

              Is he a HOF’er because his years from 22-29 set him on a pace to get him to 500HR or is he a HOF’er because he stuck around long enough to get to 500?

              In 1998 would you have said he was 1 of the best players in the sport and easily on a HOF path?

              Edgar Martinez played 3 full seasons as a 3B in 90, 91, 92. Two of those years happen to be some of his worst during his prime. He’s very different from Thomas.

              Edgar thrived as a DH, Thomas survived as one.

              • Of course his best seasons were as a 1B. But he’s going to be inducted for his entire career, not jut his years at 1B. Is 250 jacks and 819 RBIs worthy of the hall? He needed the extra 269/881 to get in.

  • Frank thomas HOF…. everyone else on that list will not be.. jack morris imo should be as well…

NL East Standings

TeamWLPct.GB
Braves4330.589 -
Nationals3536.4937.0
Phillies3538.4798.0
Mets2741.39713.5
Marlins2249.31020.0

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